TECHNICAL

A NA LYSIS
ST R AT E G IE S

TRADER MAGAZINE

GBP

UK ELECTION
IMPLICATIONS

FINANCIAL

LOSS TRAUMA

GOLD FIX
HISTORY

next stop

Grexodus?

POLITICAL RISKS AND POSSIBILITIES OF

GREECES EXIT FROM THE EURO AREA
APRIL - JUNE 2015

NOK
3 MONTHS
OUTLOOK

CONTENTs

WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR

THE POUND STERLING

FX

18

What traders should expect in the next 18 months

31

TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS

25
07 Editors note
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
36 The Euro: Its Beginning, Its End,
and Its Future: Long-term, Swing,
and Mid-term EUR/USD trading
considerations
45 What to Make of the Up and
Coming UK General Election: A
look at how the UK elections could
impact the GDP and the FX market
volatility
41 Exploring the market implications
of Mays UK general election: looks at
the implications of the UK elections on
the markets
ASK THE COACH
11 Should you focus on a number of
pips or a percentage gain per day?
Steve Ward answers your questions
CURRENCY WATCH:
22 NOK NORWEGIAN KRONE:

Using Bollinger Band

and Stochastic along
with Price Action

POLITICAL RISKS IN EUROPE:

NEXT STOP GREXODUS?
Looks at the risks and possibilities of Greeces
exit from the euro area

further weakening expected within the

3 months horizon
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
47 Trading Candlestick Patterns With
Moving Averages
TRADING METHOD:
14 How Time Consuming is Forex
Trading? Techniques and tools to
produce a much more time-efficient
and productive approach to trading.
54 How to profit from news trading
without being psychic: learn to play
news release odds in your favour
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY:
51 Psychological Trauma Through
Financial Loss: how spectrum
therapy can help traders recover from
psychological damages
MARKET WATCH
58 History of the Currency and Gold
Fix: looks at a 96-year daily tradition at

the heart of the FX market

BOOK REVIEW
63 Mindful Trading: Mastering Your
Emotions and the Inner Game, by
Rande Howell
TECHNICAL REPORTS:
65 Trends and Targets:
Majors US Dollar Rate
Major Cross Rates
Selected Asian FX Rates
FX Emerging Markets
65 Featured Markets:
EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/SGD,
EUR/PLN
69 CONFERENCES & SEMINARS
INTERNATIONAL DATA
70 FX Spot Monitor
71 Central Bank Rates
72 Economic Data - FX Poll
73 Markets View
74 ECONOMIC CALENDAR
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 3

MACROECONOMICS

FX

by Sergio Capaldi

Political Risks in Europe:

Next Stop Grexodus?

Despite the rhetoric of the heads

of the major institutions and of the
government leaders of the European
Union, the risk of Greece exiting the
euro area is by all means tangible.
The distance between the parties are
by now too great to be bridged. Even
assuming that the Greek PM, Tsipras, if
forced to choose between a watereddown compromise and a default,

would opt for the former, acceptance

of the decision by his party, Syriza,
should not be taken for granted. In
fact, Tsipras is unlikely to be able to
hold in check a formation so ridden
within malcontent that even only
the initial concessions made at the
Eurogroup of 20 February opened an
internal front of total opposition to
the possibility of a compromise being

reached on austerity. A domestic

political crisis would open a very
uncertain phase in which the radical
wing of Syriza would be replaced
by parties with markedly different
manifestos, even at odds with Syrizas.
The governments action would
become a struggle if a radical and
swift implementation of reforms were
imposed.

FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 31

FX

MACROECONOMICS

Economic policy uncerttainty index

To be extremely brief, based on

its actions and declarations, the
Greek government seems to hold
the view that current level of public
debt is not the responsibility
of Greece, but rather the result
of the fiscal bailout strategy
imposed by the Troika; that the
social cost of the efforts required
to reach and maintain the fiscal
targets laid out by Europe is
too high; and that a definitive
solution to the crisis cannot imply
a significant reduction of debt.
For propagandistic reasons, or
possibly out of true conviction,
the emphasis of the Greek
government is focused on the
issue of its sovereignty, mistaken
for its solvency. Whats more, the
current government does not seem
to have a full grasp of the actual
functioning of the European
institutions, and its decoy moves,
in addition to wasting precious
time, have deeply irritated the
countrys European partners.
It is hard to imagine the main
creditor countries in Europe

32 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2015

Source: Datastream

accepting such a political approach.

Also, the countries that have
benefited from bailout loans and

met strict conditions, would find

it hard to justify such a difference
in treatment to their electors. Last
but not least, the administrative
elections in France and in
Andalusia, Spain, have indicated
that inflexibility towards Greece is
paying off in electoral terms. In
France, the outcome of the first
round has reduced the chances
of a victory at the Presidential
elections of 2017: Marine Le
Pens Front National stopped at
25.1% of the vote, against 27.9%
for Sarkozys UMP. According to
voting intention surveys reported

While Greeces exit from the euro area

seems to be a real possibility, the phases
and timeline of the process remain to be
defined