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1093/pubmed/fdq038
Thesis
Population dynamics and climate change: what are the links?
Judith Stephenson 1, Karen Newman 2, Susannah Mayhew 3
1
Research Department of Reproductive Health, Institute of Womens Health, UCL, London W1C1E 6BT, UK
Population and Sustainability Network, c/o Margaret Pyke Trust, 73 Charlotte Street, London W1T 4PL, UK
3
Centre for Population Studies, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, LSHTM, London WC1E 7HT, UK
Address correspondence to: Professor J.M. Stephenson, E-mail: judith.stephenson@ucl.ac.uk
2
A B S T R AC T
with most of this growth in developing countries. While the principal cause of climate change is high consumption in the developed countries, its
impact will be greatest on people in the developing world. Climate change and population can be linked through adaptation (reducing vulnerability
to the adverse effects of climate change) and, more controversially, through mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change).
The contribution of low-income, high-fertility countries to global carbon emissions has been negligible to date, but is increasing with the economic
development that they need to reduce poverty. Rapid population growth endangers human development, provision of basic services and poverty
eradication and weakens the capacity of poor communities to adapt to climate change. Significant mass migration is likely to occur in response to
climate change and should be regarded as a legitimate response to the effects of climate change. Linking population dynamics with climate change
is a sensitive issue, but family planning programmes that respect and protect human rights can bring a remarkable range of benefits. Population
dynamics have not been integrated systematically into climate change science. The contribution of population growth, migration, urbanization,
ageing and household composition to mitigation and adaptation programmes needs urgent investigation.
Keyword environment
Introduction
According to the United Nation (UN) World Population
Prospects 2008 Revision,1 the world population has reached
6.8 billion with 5.6 billion (82%) living in the less developed
regions. It is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050, an increase
close to the combined populations of China and India today.
Most of this growth will be in developing countries, where
population is projected more than to double, from 835 million
inhabitants in 2009 to 1.7 billion in 2050 (Fig. 1).
There is general agreement that human industrial activity
has released vast quantities of greenhouse gases, about 900
billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, 450 of which have stayed in
the atmosphere. About 80% of carbon dioxide emission is
caused by industrialization and the remaining by land use such
as deforestation. There is strong evidence that the burning of
fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has
already caused a 0.758C rise in global temperatures and 22 cm
rise in sea level during the twentieth century. During the
150
# The Author 2010, Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved.
Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. World population is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050,
PO P U L AT I O N DY NA M I CS A ND C L I M AT E C H A NG E
Population (billion)
11
High
10.5 billion
10
9
Medium
5.2 billion
Low
3.0 billion
151
7
6
2005 1905 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Years
highly dependent on the path that future fertility takes. In the medium
It is important to recognize two distinct ways in which population issues can be linked to climate change: mitigation (reducing the greenhouse gases that cause climate change) and
adaptation (reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of
climate change). Few experts doubt the importance of population in relation to climate change adaptation, but the link
between population and climate change mitigation is more
controversial. The statement that people cause climate
change is often made to emphasize that climate change, as it
currently unfolds, is a human-induced, rather than a natural,
phenomenon. However, the principle cause of climate change
is high consumption by people in developed countries where
population growth has been low or negative. At national the
level, therefore, there is a lack of association between growth
of greenhouse gas emissions and growth of populations
during the last century. It is more accurate to say that consumers, rather than people, cause climate change; there is enormous variation in greenhouse gas emissions between
individuals with high consumption levels in developed
nations with low fertility rates, and individuals with low or
negligible consumption in poor nations with high fertility
rates. In other words, climate change is driven more by consumer behaviour than simply by population number.
While acknowledging the lack of association between population growth and greenhouse gases in the past, the relation
between these two dynamics in the future becomes more critical. As illustrated in Fig. 3, lower-middle income nations, such
as China, with rapidly developing economies, are already contributing an increasing proportion of the growth in global
greenhouse gas emissions. In simplistic terms, it is the pattern
of development and consumer behaviour in such countries
that will determine the nature and extent of links between
population dynamics and climate change in the future. This
does not detract from the view that larger future world populations will face greater challenges than smaller ones in achieving climate-sustainable emissions and that the total human
impact on the earth system scales with population.4 In starker
terms, China has claimed that its one-child policy, which is
estimated to have reduced the population of China by 500
million (from a projected 1.8 billion without such a policy to
the current level of 1.3 billion) should be seen as contributing
to its overall actions on climate change.
variant, fertility declines from 2.56 children per woman in 2005 2010 to
2.02 children per woman in 2045 2050. If fertility were to remain about
half a child above the levels projected in the medium variant, world
population would reach 10.5 billion by 2050. A fertility path half a child
below the medium would lead to a population of 8 billion by mid-century.
Consequently, population growth until 2050 is inevitable even if the
decline of fertility accelerates. UN Population Division, ibid.).
250
200
150
100
50
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Period
More developed regions
152
J O U RN A L O F P U B L I C H E A LTH
60
50
% Growth
40
Population growth
30
Carbon dixoide
emissions growth
20
10
0
Low-income
Low-middle Upper-middle High-income
nations
income nations income nations
nations
PO P U L AT I O N DY NA M I CS A ND C L I M AT E C H A NG E
Identification of factors influencing demand for family planning/smaller family sizes (e.g. mass media, social marketing,
community-based distribution of contraception).
Policy research
Examination of the role, and accountability, of global,
regional and national institutions in supporting (or blocking)
adaptation policies, strategy-development and funding.
Assessment of workable alternatives to the current carbonbased growth and development paradigm.
Methodological research
Migration
153
154
J O U RN A L O F P U B L I C H E A LTH
PO P U L AT I O N DY NA M I CS A ND C L I M AT E C H A NG E
155
156
J O U RN A L O F P U B L I C H E A LTH
Funding
13 Nicholls RJ, Wong PP, Burkett VR et al. Coastal systems and lowlying areas. Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II. In Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge, UK: University Press, 2007,315 56.
References