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Julias Notes

Glacier Mass Balance


H. Kieffer, et al.: "New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets"
R. J. Braithwaite and Y. Zhang: "Relationships between interannual variability of glacier
mass balance and climate
California Glaciers
Raub, et al. in 1980 found that there were 497
Guyton found 108 glaciers and 401 glacierets (glacier remnants)
African Ice/Kilimanjaro
Betsy Mason: "African Ice Under Wraps"
Kaser, et al. "Modern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro as evidence of climate change:
Observations and facts"
Sea Level Changes
See, for example, http://www.csr.utexas.edu/gmsl/main.html. Over the last century,
global sea-level change has typically been estimated from tide gauge measurements by
long-term averaging. Most recent estimates of global mean sea-level rise from tide gauge
measurements range from 1.7 to 2.4 mm/yr [that is, 6 to 9 every hundred years--MC].
Satellite Measurement of Sea Level Changes
Global mean sea-level rise as measured by satellite is 3.1 mm/yr for the last decade or
slightly more than 12" a century. However, satellites show considerable variation. Thus
the northern Pacific has risen, but the southern Pacific has fallen by several millimeters in
recent years.

Eds Notes
The sea level rise numbers published in the new IPCC report (the Fourth Assessment
Report, AR4) have already caused considerable confusion. Many media articles and
weblogs suggested there is good news on the sea level issue, with future sea level rise
expected to be a lot less compared to the previous IPCC report (the Third Assessment
Report, TAR). (www.realclimate.org)

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/boyer_fig2.JPG

o As this Graph indicates, the hurricane count have been relatively constant except
for the spike in the Atlantic Hurricanes in the 2000s
Secondary Effects of El Nino
o Fire, Drought, Flooding, Economic Fluctuation, Fishery Crashes, Famine,
Plagues, Insect Population Increase, Crop Failure
Benefits of El Nino
o Fewer hurricanes in Northern Atlantic
o Milder Winter in southern Canada and Northern United States
o Replenishment of Water Supplies to Southwestern US
o Less diseases in some areas due to drier weather
o Overall though, economy takes hits. Crichton seems to be wrong on this one.
Disadvantages of Global Warming
o Ocean circulation disrupted, disrupting and having unknown effects on world
climate.
o Higher sea level leading to flooding of low-lying lands and deaths and disease
from flood and evacuation.
o Deserts get drier leaving to increased desertification.
o Changes to agricultural production that can lead to food shortages.
o Water shortages in already water-scarce areas.
o Starvation, malnutrition, and increased deaths due to food and crop shortages.
o More extreme weather and an increased frequency of severe and catastrophic
storms.
o Increased disease in humans and animals.
o Extinction of additional species of animals and plants.
o Loss of animal and plant habitats.
Advantages of Global Warming

o Arctic, Antarctic, Siberia, and other frozen regions of earth may experience more
plant growth and milder climates.
o The next ice age may be prevented from occurring.
o Once again, Crichton seems off on this one too.

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