Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Indicated Value
Non-Operating
of Invested Capital +
Assets
Interest Bearing
-
Debt
Preferred
-
Series A
Indicated Value
=
of Equity
Weighted
Weighting
Value
Income Approach
Discounted Cash Flow Method [See Exhibit 8] (1)
Err:522
1,376,579
110,046,624
20,409,527
1,376,579
110,046,624
20,409,527
Err:522
50.0%
Err:522
Market Approach
Guideline Company Method [See Exhibit 9]
372,417,055
243,337,483
50.0%
(2)
Fair Value of Equity - Nonmarketable Minority Interest Level - Per Share Basis
Notes:
(1) See the Crowe Report on the Fair Value of Series A Preferred
(2) from Consolidated Statements of Operations, unaudited Financial Statement for 2008.
121,668,742
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
30,312,749
Err:522
Exhibit 2A
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Balance Sheets
As of December 31, 2008
US Dollars
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
December31
2006
2007
Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
$
Restricted cashcurrent
Accounts receivable
Accounts receivableaffiliate
Inventories
Advance royaltiescurrent
Deferred tax assetcurrent
Assets held for sale, net
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
Total current assets
Property, plant, and equipment, at cost, including mineral
reserves, mine development, and contract costs
Less accumulated depreciation, depletion, and amortization
359,691,258
35,863,385
375,841,677
70,350,598
323,827,873
473,813
101,282,852
305,491,079
2,267,779
8,750,574
148,877,770
22,568,900
8,004,472
4,738,834
4,610,251
6,011
7,553,822
138,822,353
26,573,452
9,172,660
108,478
4,465,197
6,011
Total assets
Sources:
(1) Form S-1, SEC Filing and 2008 audited Financial Statements.
4,613,112 $
2,001,118
44,235,892
1,106,408
8,092,656
1,950,727
9,352,396
8,868,829
10,242,300
90,463,438
713,604,788
7,809,159
100,263
23,321,241
4,291
6,707,405
1,381,150
17,993,489
2,723,835
6,145,529
66,186,362
560,647,193
Exhibit 2B
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
As of December 31, 2008
(in thousands, except per ton and per share data)
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
December31
2006
2007
Liabilities and stockholders'equity
Current liabilities:
Accounts payable
Accounts payableaffiliate
Current portion of long-term debt
Current portion of unfavorable coal sales contracts
Current portion of asset retirement obligation
Income taxes payable
Accrued payroll, bonus, and vacation
Accrued expenses
Total current liabilities
Noncurrent liabilities, less current portion:
Long-term debt
Asset retirement obligation
Long-term portion capital leases
Long-term portion of unfavorable coal sales contracts
Postretirement medical benefit liability
Deferred income taxes
Liabilities of discontinued operations
Other noncurrent liabilities
Total noncurrent liabilities
Total liabilities
Equity of Minority Interest
Stockholders' equity:
Common stock,
Preferred stock
Paid-in capital
Other comprehensive loss
Retained earnings (deficit)
Total stockholders'equity
Total liabilities and stockholders'equity
Sources:
(1) Form S-1, SEC Filing and 2008 audited Financial Statements.
49,200,612 $
26,840,421
11,064,093
42,657,717
71,532,060
2,538,171
9,151,225
490,500
25,969,989
35,220,985
1,364,234
1041747
12,129,826
11,381,686
197,525,564
13,028,206
116,085,908
90,973,532
29,470,580
140,649,321
62,435,599
30,568,092
94,664,053
816,300
9,352,396
65,535,680
24,898,621
1,853,425
337,834,934
535,360,498
464,032
213,846,697
329,932,605
303,127
303,127
211,375,573
211,375,573
-33,434,410
178,244,290
-488,964
19,524,852
230,714,588
713,604,788
560,647,193
June30
2008
2,738,553 $
193
16,578,635
558
20,291,043
2,297,601
15,294,809
1,487,001
10,153,514
68,841,907
December 31
2008
6,494,777
25,165,943
9,028
9,273,966
5,432,347
11,174,115
1,498,571
6,044,249
65,092,996
392,470,106
83,359,844
440,887,069
104,378,615
309,110,262
2,245,036
336,508,454
1,376,579
6,909,608
138,822,353
27,129,598
6,282,713
307,659
4,606,416
6,011
6,065,928
138,822,353
28,539,268
2,307,755
427,716
4,501,527
6,011
564,261,563 $
583,648,587
June30
2008
December 31
2008
50,612,961 $
51,565,887
102,000
81,844,472
33,288,859
1,676,209
639247
10,549,925
34,000
67,318,273
25,921,440
3,430,842
522000
10,785,995
25,434,170
204,147,843
16,945,694
176,524,131
25,703,569
28,995,931
91,070,521
1,028,327
39,641,310
28,195,467
26,024,596
22,037,122
233,706
173,056,650
377,204,493
385,104
183,875,698
360,399,829
303,127
303,127
211,375,573
211,375,573
-488,964
-24,132,666
187,057,070
(488,964)
12,059,022
223,248,758
564,261,563 $
583,648,587
92,376,342
1,240,353
Exhibit 3
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Income Statements
As of December 31, 2008
US Dollars
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
December31
2006
Revenues
Coal sales (including amounts to related parties)
Synfuel revenues
Other revenues
2007
$ 336,119,014
17,229,134
858,550
$ 281,267,359
974658
-1,399,971
Commissions
Total revenues
Costs and expenses
Cost of coal production
Cost of synfuel production
-2,518,980
351,687,718
-941,655
279,900,391
330,661,951
15,197,546
246,040,318
13,957,655
359,817,152
39,704,113
194,649
246,234,967
44,311,498
-59,246,287
-75,433,329
26,483,982
39,795,082
366,758,960
-15,071,242
254,908,218
24,992,173
-18,644,285
1,327,821
1,062,919
-24,371,512
1,646,410
1,214,138
-2,839,312
-3,768,148
-19,092,857
-34,164,099
-2,666,730
-25,279,112
-286,939
573,996
-31,497,369
4,000,095
-860,935
377,764
53,442,433
Other, net
$ -27,497,274
Sources:
(1) Form S-1, SEC Filing and 2008 audited Financial Statements.
52,959,262
June30, 2008
$
Resources, Inc.
Six months ended December31
June30, 2008
2008
117,510,374
-558,869
$ 412,581,416
17,229,134
-1,250,531
-622,120
116,329,385
-1,092,083
427,467,936
126,068,538
341,058,469
191,523
126,260,061
16,423,212
272916
341,331,385
37,676,744
-5,525,659
-11,587,256
15,247,567
42,889,433
152,405,181
-36,075,796
410,310,306
17,157,630
-4,444,134
752,289
-98,019
-14,659,223
1,300,957
-468,375
32,797
10,453,535
-3,757,067
-3,373,106
-39,832,863
3,824,655
13,784,524
4,021,220
-43,657,518
9,763,304
-43,657,518
9,763,304
Exhibit 4A
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Comparable Financial Ratios
As of December 31, 2008
In Millions of USD, Except for Ratios
2008
Energy
Coal
Resources,
Inc.
Arch Coal
Inc.
Foundatio
n Coal
Holdings
Inc.
ANR
ACI
FCL
Alpha
Median of
Natural
GPCS
Resources
ECR
Profitability
Return on Assets %
Return on Equity %
1.71%
4.30%
5.90%
0.85%
10.17%
30.72%
7.47%
23.39%
0.82%
(6.65%)
20.15%
13.29%
21.12%
16.92%
20.14%
16.92%
26.38%
25.15%
21.12%
15.33%
EBIT Margin %
4.16%
9.57%
9.57%
15.31%
1.57%
2.37%
0.28%
7.12%
12.88%
(1.29%)
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin %
EBITDA Margin %
Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover
0.7x
1.3x
0.8x
1.4x
1.7x
3.9x
0.8x
1.1x
0.8x
4.1x
17.0x
11.3x
11.3x
12.7x
13.7x
Inventory Turnover
51.6x
19.8x
24.5x
13.4x
29.8x
0.4x
1.6x
3.5x
1.0x
1.1x
0.2x
21.5
1.1x
32.3
2.9x
32.3
0.4x
28.9
0.7x
26.7
7.1
18.5
14.9
27.4
12.3
Total Debt/Equity
47.91%
80.22%
70.51%
76.70%
207.27%
LT Debt/Equity
17.76%
78.82%
70.48%
54.66%
204.38%
61.75%
61.18%
57.18%
55.61%
84.75%
n.m.
4.1x
4.7x
7.4x
5.4x
9.6x
5.7x
9.3x
0.5x
5.0x
Total Debt/EBITDA
2.0x
2.4x
1.3x
1.8x
2.4x
Total Asset
SG&A / Total Revenues
Working Capital
WC/Sales
Working Capital, Debt Free
584
0.10x
(111)
1,898 $
0.04x
95
1,725
3,942
1,898
0.03x
699
0.04x
(19)
0.05x
23
1.42%
-26.07%
9.11%
28.37%
-0.67%
(21.26)
40.24
138.76
325.10
7.41
Notes:
[1] n.m. = Non-meaningful.
[2] Comparable companies' LTM 12 months information as of Sep. 30 2008 was based on Capital IQ.
[3] The 2008 information for Energy Coal Resources, Inc. was based on ECR's unaudited financial statements.
p-30-2008
Massey
Internationa
Energy
l Coal Group Company
ICO
MEE
(0.35%)
(19.63%)
5.90%
0.85%
11.29%
7.98%
23.66%
20.80%
(0.77%)
11.39%
(11.03%)
0.28%
0.7x
1.0x
0.8x
1.4x
10.6x
11.3x
19.8x
11.0x
1.6x
2.1x
1.1x
34.5
1.6x
32.4
18.5
33.4
80.22%
139.81%
78.82%
139.63%
61.18%
72.67%
NM
2.2x
4.1x
7.4x
5.1x
2.6x
505
3,886
0.06x
95
0.03x
797
9.11%
28.56%
40.24
(101.66)
cial statements.
Exhibit 4B
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Comparable Financial Ratios
As of December 31, 2008
In Millions of USD, Except for Ratios
6 months June-30-2008
Energy
Coal
Alpha
Resources, Median of
Natural
Inc.
GPCS
Resources
ECR
Arch Coal
Inc.
Foundatio
n Coal
Holdings
Inc.
ACI
FCL
ANR
Profitability
Return on Assets %
Return on Equity %
(14.70%)
(39.59%)
0.29%
1.01%
n.a.
n.a.
9.96%
23.25%
0.18%
1.02%
Gross Margin %
EBITDA Margin %
(3.46%)
(12.13%)
23.50%
23.06%
n.a.
n.a.
27.05%
28.99%
21.78%
17.14%
EBIT Margin %
(24.18%)
8.02%
n.a.
19.23%
3.60%
(31.45%)
0.35%
n.a.
13.08%
0.21%
Margin Analysis
Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover
0.5x
0.9x
0.9x
1.3x
n.a.
n.a.
0.8x
1.1x
1.2x
2.4x
12.7x
12.4x
n.a.
11.4x
36.8x
Inventory Turnover
20.2x
16.7x
n.a.
12.2x
29.9x
0.3x
1.3x
1.5x
0.9x
1.3x
Quick Ratio
Avg. Days Sales Out.
0.1x
28.7
0.9x
29.7
1.2x
n.a.
0.3x
32.1
0.9x
9.9
18.1
23.6
n.a.
29.9
12.2
Total Debt/Equity
57.49%
81.83%
81.83%
77.24%
171.28%
LT Debt/Equity
13.74%
55.47%
37.38%
55.47%
171.28%
66.85%
61.40%
60.29%
56.24%
81.94%
n.m.
n.m.
5.4x
10.3x
n.a.
n.a.
7.4x
11.2x
2.5x
12.0x
Total Debt/EBITDA
n.m.
2.0x
n.a.
1.6x
2.1x
Others
Total Asset
SG&A / Total Revenues
Working Capital
WC/Sales
Working Capital, Debt Free
564 $
0.12x
(135)
-102.92%
(56.20)
1,939 $
0.04x
63
1,679
3,949
1,939
n.a.
312
0.04x
(45)
0.05x
63
4.04%
13.82%
-1.67%
4.04%
29.43
201.72
329.64
(9.12)
Notes:
[1] n.m. = Non-meaningful.
[2] Source from Capital IQ
08
Internation
al Coal
Group
Massey
Energy
Company
ICO
MEE
0.39%
1.00%
(3.41%)
(13.39%)
11.72%
8.20%
25.21%
45.51%
(0.60%)
12.45%
0.49%
(3.57%)
0.8x
1.1x
1.0x
1.5x
9.8x
13.4x
21.2x
11.6x
0.7x
1.5x
0.5x
37.1
0.9x
27.2
17.2
31.5
80.00%
146.91%
35.69%
146.65%
61.40%
76.26%
n.m.
5.0x
5.4x
9.3x
4.8x
1.8x
1,347
3,166
0.04x
(133)
0.04x
307
-14.10%
11.67%
29.43
(70.80)
Exhibite 4C
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Comparable Financial Ratios
As of December 31, 2008
In Millions of USD, Except for Ratios
12 months Dec-31-2007
Energy Coal
Resources,
Inc.
Alpha
Median of
Natural
GPCS
Resources
ECR
Arch Coal
Inc.
Foundatio
n Coal
Holdings
Inc.
ACI
FCL
ANR
Profitability
Return on Assets %
Return on Equity %
8.31%
25.90%
3.63%
10.28%
3.93%
7.65%
3.78%
12.08%
2.73%
10.28%
12.03%
24.83%
20.52%
17.54%
15.57%
12.81%
21.63%
18.68%
24.62%
19.73%
9.00%
5.67%
3.95%
8.66%
5.67%
18.92%
2.20%
1.48%
7.25%
2.20%
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin %
EBITDA Margin %
EBIT Margin %
Net Income Margin %
Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover
Accounts Receivable Turnover
0.4x
0.9x
0.8x
1.3x
1.6x
2.9x
0.7x
1.0x
0.8x
2.3x
8.2x
10.9x
10.4x
10.9x
13.2x
33.2x
19.6x
21.5x
12.3x
27.7x
0.6x
1.7x
1.7x
0.9x
1.2x
Quick Ratio
Avg. Days Sales Out.
0.3x
44.5
1.1x
33.4
1.1x
35.1
0.5x
33.4
0.7x
27.7
11.0
18.6
17.0
29.7
13.2
Total Debt/Equity
38%
117%
117%
85%
178%
LT Debt/Equity
27%
112%
112%
71%
178%
59%
69%
69%
57%
82%
Inventory Turnover
Short Term Liquidity
Current Ratio
1.0x
n.m.
2.0x
5.7x
1.8x
6.0x
2.8x
6.0x
1.6x
5.5x
Total Debt/EBITDA
n.m.
2.6x
1.9x
2.9x
2.0x
Others
Total Asset
SG&A / Total Revenues
Working Capital
WC/Sales
Working Capital, Debt Free
561
0.14x
(50)
-17.83%
(36.04)
1,908 $
0.03x
118
1,211
0.03x
157
0.03x
(35)
0.05x
39
8.33%
8.33%
-1.47%
2.66%
124.24
124.24
3,595
177.16
1,908
(10.57)
Notes:
[1] n.m. = Non-meaningful.
[2] Source from Capital IQ
7
Massey
Internationa
Energy
l Coal Group Company
ICO
MEE
(3.17%)
(25.08%)
3.63%
12.70%
6.29%
2.36%
20.52%
17.54%
(7.82%)
6.79%
(17.32%)
3.93%
0.6x
0.9x
0.9x
1.3x
10.3x
13.2x
19.6x
10.2x
1.8x
2.4x
1.4x
35.3
1.5x
27.7
18.6
35.9
80%
141%
79%
141%
61%
73%
NM
0.6x
2.2x
5.7x
20.5x
2.6x
1,304
2,861
0.04x
118
0.03x
520
13.89%
21.68%
15.03
156.19
Exhibite 4D
###
Comparable Financial Ratios
As of December 31, 2008
In Millions of USD, Except for Ratios
12 months Dec-31-2006
Energy Coal
Resources,
Inc.
Arch Coal
Inc.
Foundatio
n Coal
Holdings
Inc.
ANR
ACI
FCL
3.03%
9.86%
7.99%
46.04%
5.59%
20.47%
3.03%
9.86%
Alpha
Median of
Natural
GPCS
Resources
ECR
Profitability
Return on Assets %
Return on Equity %
NA
NA
Margin Analysis
Gross Margin %
EBITDA Margin %
1.66%
10.97%
18.15%
14.85%
18.15%
14.85%
21.94%
19.73%
25.27%
20.78%
EBIT Margin %
(0.32%)
6.53%
7.23%
11.40%
6.53%
(7.82%)
2.14%
6.71%
10.44%
2.14%
Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover
Fixed Asset Turnover
NA
NA
0.8x
1.2x
1.8x
3.1x
0.8x
1.2x
0.7x
2.4x
NA
12.5x
11.8x
12.8x
12.5x
Inventory Turnover
NA
16.4x
20.4x
15.0x
16.4x
Current Ratio
0.5x
1.2x
1.5x
1.1x
1.2x
Quick Ratio
Avg. Days Sales Out.
0.3x
NA
0.8x
29.1
0.9x
31.0
0.6x
28.6
0.8x
29.1
22.2
17.9
24.4
22.2
NA
75%
136%
136%
86%
210%
LT Debt/Equity
51%
122%
122%
82%
210%
75%
70%
70%
59%
85%
NM
n.m.
2.4x
4.7x
3.3x
6.8x
4.4x
7.7x
1.5x
4.7x
Total Debt/EBITDA
n.m.
2.4x
1.7x
2.4x
2.1x
Others
Total Asset
SG&A / Total Revenues
Working Capital
714
0.08x
(107)
1,950 $
0.04x
46
1,146
0.04x
116
0.03x
46
0.04x
37
6.12%
1.86%
2.52%
95.13
3.33
WC/Sales
-30.44%
3.66%
(406.85)
95.13
131.22
3,321
1,950
Notes:
[1] n.m. = Non-meaningful.
[2] Source from Capital IQ
s Dec-31-2006
International
Coal Group
Massey
Energy
Company
ICO
MEE
(0.55%)
(1.41%)
1.41%
5.41%
10.89%
6.99%
16.34%
14.04%
(1.18%)
2.97%
(1.05%)
1.89%
0.7x
1.2x
0.8x
1.2x
12.5x
12.2x
25.7x
6.8x
1.2x
2.3x
0.8x
29.1
1.2x
30.0
14.2
53.9
30%
158%
27%
158%
50%
75%
NM
3.4x
0.7x
3.5x
3.2x
3.6x
1,317
2,741
0.04x
32
0.02x
445
3.66%
20.48%
35.23
208.53
Exhibit 5
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital - Size Risk Premium Analysis
As of December 31, 2008
All dollar amounts in millions (except otherwise noted)
Book Value of Equity
Total Assets
Constant:
Std Err of Y Est:
R Squared
No. of Observations
Degrees of Freedom
8.77%
79.99%
Constant:
Std Err of Y Est:
68%
R Squared
25
23
No. of Observations
Degrees of Freedom
8.97%
0.95%
58%
25
23
X Coefficient(s)
-1.87%
X Coefficient(s)
-1.65%
26.50%
-7.07
0.29%
-5.62
Book Value
$223
Total Assets
$584
Output
4.4%
Output
4.4%
Sales
Number of Employees
CoConstant:
Std Err of Y Est:
8.44%
10.44%
0.95%
0.97%
R Squared
No. of Observations
51%
25
R Squared
No. of Observations
63%
25
Degrees of Freedom
23
Degrees of Freedom
23
X Coefficient(s)
Std Err of Coef.
t-Statistic
Sales
-1.45%
0.30%
X Coefficient(s)
Std Err of Coef.
-4.9
t-Statistic
$427
Employees
Output
4.6%
Output
4.4%
Total Assets
4.4%
Sales
4.6%
-1.78%
0.29%
-6.21
Exhibit 5
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital - Size Risk Premium Analysis
As of December 31, 2008
All dollar amounts in millions (except otherwise noted)
Average
4.5%
Exhibit 6
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Cost of Equity: CAPM Approach
As of December 31, 2008
Guideline
Companies
Risk-free rate (20-year government bonds)
(1)
3.05%
(2)
6.20%
(3)
Err:522
Levered
Beta (6)
Unlevered
Beta
Relevered
Beta
ANR
1.47
1.14
Err:522
ACI
FCL
ICO
MEE
1.85
1.63
1.61
1.79
1.22
1.03
0.99
0.86
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
1.63
1.03
Err:522
Err:522
Equity size premium
(4)
4.47%
Median
(5)
9.00%
Err:522
Notes:
(1) The 20-Year Treasury Yield from http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/Business_day/H15_TCMNOM_Y20.txt
(2) Long-horizon expected equity risk premium,Supply side, from Morningstar's SBBI 2008 Valuation Yearbook.
(3) We considered the medians of Relevered Beta of comparable companies , relevered using the Company's capital structure.
(4) Duff & Phelps size risk premium analysis. Please see Exhibit 5
(5) Based on forecast risk and uncertainties related to future economy.
(6) Company specific data are from Capital IQ.
Exhibit 7
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Weighted-Average Cost of Capital
As of December 31, 2008
US Dollars, Except for Ratios
MV Capital Structure ($ values in millions)
Assumptions:
Cost of debt
MV Equity
1,436.708
Total
$ 1,957.618
Debt
/Invested
Capital
26.6%
1,342.056
2,312.952
3,655.008
36.7%
63.3%
100%
599.785
425.796
646.508
393.981
1,246.293
819.777
48.1%
51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
100%
100%
1,484.907
1,263.403
2,748.310
54.0%
46.0%
100%
48.1%
52.0%
23.3%
76.7%
23.3%
76.7%
15.75% (1)
ANR
Debt
$ 520.910
Cost of equity
Err:522 (2)
ACI
Tax rate
% Debt
38.90% (3)
Err:522 (4)
FCL
ICO
% Equity
Err:522 (4)
MEE
Debt
Cost
1 - tax rate
15.75% x
61.10%
Estimated
Equity
WACC discount rate
Cost
9.62%
Err:522
Weighted
Proportion
Err:522 =
Cost
Err:522
Err:522 =
Err:522
Median
Err:522
Notes:
(1) on the Yields of bonds issued by the comparable companies plus 1% credit spread + 1.5% illiquidity premium. Data for ratings and yields of comparable companies is Bloomberg.
(2) Exhibit 6.
(3) Estimated combined Federal and State effective tax rates obtained from www.taxfoundation.org.
(4) Based upon the Enery Coal's own capital structure, calculated as interest bearing debt (from Ex 1)/ (interest bearing debt +shareholders equity (Ex 2))
Equity/
Invested
Capital
73.4%
Total
100%
Exhibit 8
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Valuation Date: December 31, 2008
USD dollars
For the years ended:
2006
Revenue (1)
351,687,718
Growth
Cost of Sales (1)
Cost of Sales Margin
Gross profit (1)
$359,817,152
102.31%
($8,129,434)
-2.31%
$26,483,982
Gross Margin
SG&A Expenses (1)
SG&A %
7.53%
EBITDA
($34,613,416)
EBITDA Margin
2007
279,900,391
-20.41%
EBIT
EBIT Margin
2009
427,467,936
52.72%
486,744,835
13.87%
2010
$
539,130,675
10.76%
2011
$
547,944,511
1.63%
2012
$
563,740,511
2.88%
$246,234,967
87.97%
341,331,385
79.85%
324,559,314
66.68%
339,807,536
63.03%
341,289,892
62.29%
342,553,572
60.76%
$33,665,424
12.03%
$39,795,082
$86,136,551
20.15%
$42,889,433
$162,185,521
33.32%
$40,172,166
$199,323,139
36.97%
$47,545,101
$206,654,619
37.71%
$49,016,478
$221,186,939
39.24%
$47,816,478
14.22%
($6,129,658)
-9.84%
2008
-2.19%
$39,704,113
$44,311,498
($74,317,529)
-21.13%
($50,441,156)
-18.02%
10.03%
$43,247,118
10.12%
$37,676,744
$5,570,374
1.30%
8.25%
$122,013,355
25.07%
8.82%
$151,778,038
28.15%
8.95%
8.48%
$157,638,141
$173,370,461
28.77%
30.75%
$48,105,904
$48,055,665
$52,898,229
$52,898,229
$73,907,451
15.18%
$103,722,374
19.24%
$104,739,912
19.12%
$120,472,232
21.37%
Terminal Value
$
583,471,429
3.50%
354,542,947
60.76%
$228,928,482
39.24%
$49,490,055
8.48%
$179,438,427
30.75%
$44,858,752
$134,579,675
23.07%
$4,887,148
Less taxes
38.90%
$26,848,898
$40,348,003
$40,743,826
$46,863,698
$52,351,494
$47,058,553
$63,374,370
$63,996,086
$73,608,534
$82,228,181
Plus: Depreciation
Less: Change in working capital
Less: Capital Expenditures (3)
$48,105,904
40,015,602
$34,741,576
$48,055,665
2,019,069
$41,796,789
$52,898,229
339,705
$43,341,789
$52,898,229
608,814
$43,341,789
$44,858,752
760,474
$44,858,752
$20,407,279
$67,614,177
$73,212,820
$82,556,160
$81,467,707
3.50%
Err:522
0.5
Err:522
Err:522
Present value of interim cash flows
Err:522
Terminal value
Err:522
1.5
Err:522
Err:522
2.5
Err:522
Err:522
3.5
Err:522
Err:522
Err:522
$81,467,707
Err:522
Err:522
Times: PV Factor
Err:522
PV of Terminal Value
Working capital analysis:
Revenue
Existing debt-free woking capital (5)
Required debt-free working capital
Change in working capital
2009
$486,744,835
(21,255,357)
18,760,245
40,015,602
2010
$539,130,675
18,760,245
20,779,314
2,019,069
2011
$547,944,511
20,779,314
21,119,019
339,705
Err:522
2012
$563,740,511
21,119,019
21,727,832
608,814
Terminal Value
$583,471,429
21,727,832
22,488,307
760,474
Exhibit 9
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Publicly-Traded (Guideline) Comparable Company Method - Summary
As of December 31, 2008
US Dollars
Market
Multiple
Projected
Company
Amount (1)
Indicated
Equity Value
Weighting
Weighted
Value Indicator
Equity Multiples
Price to EBITDA
5.1x
Price to Sales
0.7x
82,630,237
457,106,385
420,773,811
50%
311,070,745
50%
155,535,372
Plus: Cash
Indicated value of equity - minority
365,922,278
6,494,777
Notes:
(1) Average of the 2008 and projected 2009 values. The 2008 values are from Exhibit 3 and the projected 2009 values are from Exhibit 8.
(2) The Market multiple is based on the mean multiple of the comparable companies in Exhibit 10.
210,386,906
372,417,055
Exhibit 10
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Publicly-Traded (Guideline) Comparable Company Method - Detailed
As of December 31, 2008
All dollar amounts in millions (excep otherwise noted)
Stock
Outstanding
Equity
Total
Cash &
Enterprise
Total
Ticker
Price
Shares
Value
Debt
ST Inv.
Value (2)
Assets
ANR
$ 16.2
70.5
$ 1,141.3
$ 539.1
$ 676.2
$ 1,004.3
$ 1,728.3
ACI
16.2
144.4
2,337.4
1,312.4
70.6
3,579.1
3,979.0
FCL
ICO
14.0
2.3
45.5
153.3
635.6
352.6
599.8
455.0
42.3
63.9
1,193.1
743.6
1,968.1
1,349.7
MEE
13.7
84.6
1,159.4
1,465.6
607.0
2,018.0
3,675.8
Company
(1)
Latest Statistics
EBITDA
$
EBITDA
Sales
416.6
$ 2,462.5
2.4x
0.4x
728.8
2,898.3
4.9x
1.2x
245.0
83.3
1,597.9
1,044.0
4.9x
8.9x
0.7x
0.7x
580.4
2,790.7
3.5x
0.7x
4.9x
0.7x
Median - Historical
Dec. 09
EBITDA
1 Alpha Natural Resources
2 Arch Coal Inc,
EBITDA
Sales
380.3
665.4
$ 2,250.0
2,890.0
2.6x
5.4x
0.4x
1.2x
223.6
1,850.0
5.3x
0.6x
76.1
1,340.0
9.8x
0.6x
529.9
3,140.0
3.8x
0.6x
5.3x
0.6x
Average of Historical
and Forward
EBITDA
Sales
Price to
Sales
Price to
Sales
Price to
EBITDA
Sales
398.4
$ 2,356.3
2.5x
0.4x
697.1
234.3
2,894.2
1,723.9
5.1x
5.1x
1.2x
0.7x
79.7
1,192.0
9.3x
0.6x
555.1
2,965.4
3.6x
0.7x
5.1x
0.7x
Exhibit 11
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
As of December 31, 2008
Indication of Discount for Lack of Marketability - I
Analysis of Published Benchmark Studies
Years Covered
Avenge
Years Covered
Median
In Study
Discount
In Study
Discount
1966-1969
25.80%
1980-1981
66.00%
1966-1969
32.60%
1985-1986
43.00%
Gelman Study
1968-1970
33.00%
198 7-1989
45.00%
Trout Study
1968-1972
33.45%
1989-1990
40.00%
n/a
35.60%
1990-1992
40.00%
Maher Study
1969-1973
35.43%
1992-1993
44.00%
1978-1982
45.00%
1994-199 5
45.00%
1981-1984
31.20%
1995-1997
42.00%
Silber Study
1981-19 88
33.75%
1975-1978
52.50%
1980-1996
27.10%
1979
62.70%
1980-1997
22.30%
1980-1982
56.50%
1991-1995
20.00%
1983
60.70%
1996-1997
21.00%
1984
73.10%
1985
42.60%
1986
47.40%
Moroney Study
Average
30.48%
1987
43.80%
Median
32.60%
1988
51.80%
Low
20.00%
1989
50.30%
High
45.00%
1990
48.50%
1991
31.80%
1992
51.70%
1993
53.30%
1994
42.00%
1995
58.70%
Average
49.68%
Median
47.95%
Low
31.80%
High
73.10%
Median
33.0% to 48.0%
Low
20.0% to 32.0%
Note:
(1) Shannon P. Pratt, Robert F. Reilly & Robert P. Schweihs, Valuing Small Businesses & Professional Practices , Fourth Edition, (New York: McGraw Hill, 2000), p. 404.
Exhibit 12
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
As of December 31, 2008
Indication of Discount for Lack of Marketability - II
FMV Opinions - FMV Restricted Stock Study Database
Quintile
Freely
Traded Value
(pre-DLOM
Subject Company
discount)
Energy Coal
Trans
Number
Discount
Transaction
Month
Percent Shares
Place/Total
Shares
Outstanding
Quintile 1 Bottom
Err:522
Market Value
$
2,020
Revenues
$
427,468
Revenues
$
Market
Value/Book
Value
Err:522
Assets
$
Market
Value/Book
Value
583,649
16,572
26,820
173
1,014
0.80
1.86
2,727
5,652
Quintile 2 Median
40,438
2,796
3.18
8,865
Quintile 2 Top
57,517
4,751
4.73
Quintile 3 Median
Quintile 3 Top
82,747
106,082
9,377
14,421
Quintile 4 Median
140,643
Quintile 4 Top
206,986
Quintile 5 Top
Market
Value/Book
Value
Assets
Err:522
Err:522
Database Transactions
Subject Company
Quintile
Quintile
Revenues
Market
Value/Book
Value
Assets
Market
Value
Revenues
Market
Value/Book
Value
Discount Determination
Assets
Match Status
Applicable
Discount
Quintile 1 Median
Quintile 1 Top
Quintile 5 Median
Revenues
Market
Value
Assets
$ (16,858.41) $
Market
Value
Count
Quintile 1 Bottom
Quintile 1 Median
Err:522
Err:522
12,517
Quintile 1 Top
Err:522
6.37
8.65
18,123
27,564
Quintile 2 Median
Quintile 2 Top
Err:522
Err:522
26,269
11.72
43,222
Quintile 3 Median
49,014
19.05
71,233
Quintile 3 Top
Err:522
Quintile 4 Median
Err:522
Quintile 4 Top
Err:522
Quintile 5 Median
Err:522
Quintile 5 Top
Err:522
404,505
124,377
37.86
213,640
5,726,135
1,791,446
800.14
12,471,370
Err:522
Exhibit 13
Energy Coal Resources, Inc.
Indication of Discount for Lack of Marketability: Summary
As of December 31, 2008
Method
Analysis of Published Benchmark Studies
Indicated Range based Median Discounts [Exhibit 11] (1)
Indicated Range based on Low Discounts
Indicated Discount
33% to 48%
20.0% to 32%
Err:522
17.10%
1.50%
Err:522
Notes:
(1) Shannon P. Pratt, Robert F. Reilly & Robert P. Schweihs, Valuing Small Businesses & Professional Practices , Third Edition, (New York: McGraw Hill, 1998), p. 457.
(2) Business Valuation Resources, "The FMV Restricted Study Advanced Search Results," Business Valuation Resources Web site <http://www.bvmarketdata.com>, accessed March 2007.