Forecasting Mortality Rates Using The Lee-Carter Model

FORECASTING PHILIPPINE MORTALITY
RATES USING THE LEE-CARTER MODEL
CIOLO MIGUEL C. CALMA

MONICA E. REVADULLA
A Special Problem Presented to the

Faculty of the Mathematics Division
Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics
College of Arts and Sciences
University of the Philippines Los Ba
nos
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

for the Degree of
B.S. Applied Mathematics

Actuarial Science Option
April 2014
The Faculty of the Mathematics Division

Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics
College of Arts and Sciences
University of the Philippines Los Ba
nos
hereby accepts the Special Problem entitled
FORECASTING PHILIPPINE MORTALITY RATES

USING THE LEE-CARTER MODEL
by
CIOLO MIGUEL C. CALMA
MONICA E. REVADULLA
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

for the Degree of
B.S. Applied Mathematics
Actuarial Science Option
Prof. Jonathan B. Mamplata

Special Problem Adviser
Date

Head, Mathematics Division
Date
ol
Dr. Chrysline Margus N. Pin
Director, Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Physics
Date
ii
ABSTRACT
FORECASTING PHILIPPINE MORTALITY RATES USING THE

LEE-CARTER MODEL
Ciolo Miguel C. Calma

Monica E. Revadulla
UP Los Ba
nos, April, 2014
Adviser:
This study described the application of the Lee-Carter model to age-specific death
rates by gender in the Philippines. These rates are available for the period that goes
from 1960 to 2009. The mortality index, average age-specific mortality, the deviation
in mortality for each age interval and gender, and the shape and sensitivity coefficients
for sixteen age groups are obtained through the Lee-Carter method. The forecasted
mortality rates for all genders from 2014 to 2018 were calculated using Holts Linear
Exponential Smoothing Method. Finally, the conversion from death rates to death
probabilities, the projection of life expectancies and the construction of the life tables
was formulated through Chiangs formula for abridged life tables. As calculated, the
life expectancy for individuals ages 70 and above for all genders is 10, and the life
expectancy for infants for all years and gender range from 65-70. The death rate
for infants for the male range from 8-9, for female, 11-15, and 9-13 for the whole
population.
iii
Acknowledgements
This paper will not be possible without the help of the these special people:
To my Parents and siblings, Myriam Cases Calma and Virgilio Yonzon Calma, Manang Toyette,
Manong Dave and Pipi, thank you for always giving me your full support and trust to the times that I am not
in your sight. Giving your full trust and hope to me are the most uncountable blessing that you can ever give to me
and I will always cherish that.
To Professor Jonathan B. Mamplata, for being meticulous, opinionated, challenging and supportive special
problem adviser. Thank you for painstakingly scrutinizing our special problem from Day 1 up to the very end. Thank
you also for being a good friend to me. Always have the passion to nurture,and instill your knowledge to the future
Actuarial Science majors in UPLB.
To all of my Actuarial Science professors, Prof. Crisanto A. Dorado, Prof. Lester Charles A. Umali
and soon-to-be Prof. Jeric S. Alcala, for being the first stepping stone of my Actuarial Science career. Thank
you also for your patience and the passion in teaching the best subjects ever! Also, thank you for being cool and not
boring teachers.
To the Society of Applied Mathematics of UPLB (SAM-UP) and Rocesians United in UP (ROUNDUP),for enhancing my social skills at its best and for being a family away from home. I will always treasure and will
remember all the fun times and the life lessons that you have given to me. To my Batchmates Petere Excellentiae,
for the fun and crazy times that we had especially during our aplikante days. It may be hard for us to be at the
same place at the same time but youll always be PeTex in my heart. Let us always AIM FOR EXCELLENCE!
To Pogi Productions staff, for giving me the chance to explore more options which is ACTING but later on
did not worked for me. Also, for the chance to be more creative and making a group presentation more colorful and
fun but still academic. It is with full hope that this production will soon be a hit to all UPLB constitutents.
To SAM-UPs Executive Committee A.Y. 2014-2015 : Erika, Adrian, Jomi, Roel, Arden, Joanne,
Gideon,and Nigel, for allowing me to allot time for my Special Problem during our convention. You guys proved
to me that diversity is never a hindrance for unity. Thank you for giving me the chance to share with you your
willingness to serve our beloved organization.
To Miss Abigail Tayas and Miss Krizza Calingasan, for their never ending hospitality everytime I get to
stay to their apartment. Thank you!
To my homies Aldous, Jboy, Kristel,Sir Athan and Jet, for being the coolest housemate I have ever had.
I will always miss the crazy nights, the spicy caldereta, poker, gossips, and dramas that we all shared in our very
special apartment.To my roomate, Jerson, for being a cool and good listener and a brother to me. I will be forever
be thankful to that. Always remember the bro code: Bros before hoes!
To my SP partner, the gorgeous Monica E. Revadulla for doing the major works in our paper and also for
being understanding friend to me.Our crazy, sleepless and stressful days and nights are over. I will always be here
to support your passion to teach as your way of serving the people.
And of course to our Great God Almighty, for always hearing my prayers to give me the wisdom, knowledge
and the courage in every journeys of my life. Amen!
Ciolo Miguel Cases Calma
iv
This paper would not have been possible without the help of the individuals listed below:
To my father, Benny, thank you for driving me all the way to the National Statistics
Office in Sta. Mesa, Manila to get the official data needed to start the study. Spending four
long boring hours in a fast food chain while waiting me finish scribbling all the data is greatly
appreciated. To my mother, Cristy, thank you for being my constant encouragement.
To one of the creators of the Lee-Carter Model, Mr. Ronald Lee, thank you for
quickly responding to my e-mails and patiently answering all questions about the study.
Your intelligent answers to the seemingly simple questions truly kept the study in the right
track. Thank you for creating such a well-devised model which would surely be useful in
demography.
To our adviser, Mr. Jonathan Mamplata, thank you for the patience you showed
throughout the checking of the paper. I learned a lot from your guidance on the flow of the
study and the correctness of the construction of the paper itself.
To my partner in this study, Ciolo, thank you for giving me a head start on what we
are supposed to do: it would have taken me more than a month to think of a topic. Thank
you for staying strong through my nagging and panic-stricken days. Your perseverance in
learning Latex is greatly appreciated. Flying solo, I think it would take me a year to finish
the manuscript just because of the program. Also, thumbs up to your presentation at the
MSP Calabarzon Event.
Last, but the very best, to my partner in every aspect of life, Daphne, thank you for
buying me my favorite dinner while I was cramming the first draft of the study: your concern
and care helped me go through the night. Also, staying with me in my boiling apartment as
I scratched my head throughout Kelangan ko mag-SP nights is greatly appreciated. I love
you.
Monica Encinas Revadulla
Table of Contents
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
iii
List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii
1 Introduction
1.1
Background of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.2
Statement of the Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.3
Significance of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1.4
Objective of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 Theoretical Framework
2.1
Age-Specific Death Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.2
The Lee-Carter Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3
Singular Value Decomposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.4
Second Estimation of the parameter k
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10
2.5
Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing Method (LES) . . . . . . . . .
11
2.6
Life Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
2.6.1
The Construction of a Life Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
2.6.2
Statistical Inference on Life Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
16
vi
3 Solving for the Parameters of the Lee-Carter Model

3.1
19
Solving for the parameters of the Lee-Carter model . . . . . . . . . .
19
3.1.1
27
Estimation of the k parameter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4 Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing Method (LES)
30
4.1
Forecasting mortality rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30
4.2
Computing new age-specific death rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
31
5 Life Tables
33
5.1
Constructing the life table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
33
5.2
Standard error and confidence intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35
6 Summary and Conclusions
36
7 Recommendation
39
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
vii
List of Tables
3.1
Death rates for male and its corresponding natural logarithm for 1960
20
3.2
Natural logarithm of death rates for male from 1960-1970 . . . . . . .
21
3.3
Parameter ax for male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
22
3.4
The centralized death rates for the Male population from 1960 - 1970
22
3.5
the diagonal matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
24
3.6
The parameter bx for the male population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
25
3.7
The ax and bx parameters fore male, female and total population in

the Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
26
The forecasted parameter k for male, female and total population in

Philippines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
30
4.1
4.2
The Mean Squared Error, ,and for male, female and total Population 31
4.3
The new age-specific death rates of male for 2014 up to 2018 . . . . .
32
5.1
Life table for the year 2014 for the male population . . . . . . . . . .
34
5.2
Statistical Inference of forecasted rates for the year 2014 of the male
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
35
7.1
The age-specific male population from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . . .
42
7.2
The age-specific male population from 1976 - 1990 . . . . . . . . . . .
42
7.3
The age-specific male deaths from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
43
7.4
43
viii
7.5
44
7.6
44
7.7
The age-specific female deaths from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . .
44
7.8
45
7.9
45
7.10 The age-specific female deaths from 2006 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . .
45
7.11 The age-specific total deaths from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
46
46
46
47
7.15 The age-specific male death rates from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . .
48
7.16 The age-specific male death rates from 1976 - 1990 . . . . . . . . . .
48
7.17 The age-specific death rates from 1991 - 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49
7.18 The age-specific death rates from 2006 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
49
7.19 The age-specific female death rates from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . .
49
50
50
50
7.23 The age-specific total death rates from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . .
51
51
51
52
7.27 The age-specific male logarithm of death rates from 1960 - 1975 . . .
53
ix
53
54
54
7.31 Life table for the year 2015 of the male population . . . . . . . . . . .
55
56
56
57
7.35 Life table for the year 2014 of the female population . . . . . . . . . .
57
58
58
59
59
7.40 Life table for the year 2014 of the total population . . . . . . . . . . .
60
60
61
61
62
7.45 Statistical Inference of forecasted rates for the year 2015 of the male
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
63
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
63
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
64
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
64
7.49 Statistical Inference of forecasted rates for the year 2014 of the female
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
64
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66
7.54 Statistical Inference of forecasted rates for the year 2014 of the total
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
66
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
67
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
67
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
67
xi
List of Figures
3.1
The first element of the 50 50 orthogonal matrix U . . . . . . . . .
23
3.2
The first elements of the 16 x 16 matrix V T . . . . . . . . . . . . .
23
3.3
ax parameter for male, female and the total population in the Philippines 26
3.4
bx parameter for men, women and the total population in the Philippines 27
3.5
First estimation of the parameter k for male, female and total population 28
3.6
Second estimation of the parameter k for male, female and total population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xii
29
Chapter 1
Introduction
In this Chapter, an overview of this Special Problem is presented. A brief
introduction to the concepts regarding mortality rates and life expectancy are discussed.Also, presented in this chapter are the objectives of the study, the statement
of the problem, the scopes and limitations and the review of related literature.
1.1
Background of the Study

Life expectancy was slightly increased during the transition between the 20th
and the 21st century. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), life
expectancy in the Philippines increased from 63 to 66 from 1990 to 2011 [1].
In the fields of Demography and Actuarial Science, there have been many
attempts to find an appropriate model that represents mortality. Traditionally, a
1
parametric curve, like the ones suggested by De Moivre, Gompertz and Weibull, was
used to fit annual death rates [7].
Over the past years, a great number of new approaches were developed in order
to forecast mortality by using stochastic models. The Lee-Carter model became one
of the most well-known models and it is applied in different countries around the
world to forecast age specific death rates [2]. The method proposed by Lee and
Carter (1992) has become the leading statistical model of mortality forecasting in
the demographic literature. It was used as a benchmark for recent Census Bureau
population forecasts of the United States [14].
Lee and Carter developed their approach specifically for U.S. mortality data,
1933-1987. However, the method is now being applied to all-cause and cause-specific
mortality data from many countries and time periods, all well beyond the application
for which it was designed [14].
1.2
Statement of the Problem

The Lee-Carter model is a numerical algorithm used in mortality forecasting
and life expectancy forecasting. This study focused on the application of the LeeCarter model in forecasting and estimating the mortality rates in the Philippines.
This study would also construct life tables and compute life expectancies using the
forecasted mortality rates.
1.3
Significance of the Study

Mortality data are essential in the measurement of disease and consequently
health in the planning of public health care. Studying trends in mortality over time
helps to understand how the health status of the population is changing and assists
in the evaluation of the health system.
Mortality data also provide a basis for investigating the incidence of disease,
its severity and the quality of life before death [1].
Lee-Carter model and its extensions have been used by actuaries for multiple
purposes like longevity risk and annuity pricing [16].The model has been used by the
United States Social Security Administration, the US Census Bureau, and the United
Nations. It has become the most widely used mortality forecasting technique in the
world today [3].
1.4
Objective of the Study

The primary goal of the study is to forecast the Philippine mortality rates
using the Lee-Carter model. Specifically, this study aims to:

3
1. Estimate the index of level of mortality

2. Solve the parameters of the Lee-Carter Model;
3. Use Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing method to forecast the index of level
of mortality;
4. Compute for the life expectancy using the forecasted probability of death;
5. Construct life tables using the forecasted mortality rates.
Chapter 2
Theoretical Framework
In this Chapter, the concepts used in this Special Problem are discussed. The
average age-specific mortality and the deviations are discussed by the Lee-Carter
model, the Singular Value Decomposition and the mortality rates are forecasted using
Holts Linear Method.
2.1
Age-Specific Death Rates
An age specific death rate, mx,t , is the ratio of the number of deaths within a specified
age group in a specific geographic area during a certain period of time to the corresponding population at risk of the same group, in the same geographic area during
the specified time period of study [1].
mx,t =
Dx,t
Nx,t
(2.1)
where
mx,t
2.2
-is the age specific death rate at age group x at year t
Dx,t
-is the number of deaths at age group x at year t
Nx,t
-is the population at age group x at year t
The Lee-Carter Model
The Lee-Carter model is a demographic and statistical model used in mortality forecasting and life expectancy forecasting [2]. It is a method used for long-run forecasts
of the level and age pattern of mortality based on a combination of statistical time
series methods and a simple approach to dealing with the age distribution of mortality. Fitting into historical data, the method describes the logarithm of a time series of
age-specific death rates as the sum of an age-specific component that is independent
of time and another component that is the product of a time-varying parameter reflecting the general level of mortality, and an age-specific component that represents
how rapidly or slowly mortality at each age varies when the general level of mortality
changes. The resulting estimate of the time varying parameter is then modeled and
forecast as a stochastic time series using standard methods [3].
6
The models basic premise is that there is a linear relationship among the logarithm
of age-specific death rates mx,t and two factors: the initial age interval x and year t.
Information is distributed in age intervals, so the interval that begins with age x will
be called x age interval [7]. The equation describing this is as follows:
mx,t = eax +bx kt +x,t ,
t = 1, 2, 3, ....,
(2.2)
Taking the natural logarithm of both sides:
fx,t = ln(mx,t ) = ax + bx kt + x,t ,
t = 1, 2, 3, ....,
(2.3)
where
mx,t
kt
-is the age specific death rate for the x interval

-is the mortality index in the year t. This would capture 80% - 90%
of the historical mortality trend
ax
bx
-is the average age-specific mortality

-is the deviation in mortality due to changes in the kt index.
This describes the amount of mortality change at a given age
for one unit of total mortality change.
x,t
-is the random error assuming normal distribution N(,)
-is the beginning of the last age interval
Definition 2.1. Average age-specific mortality
The average age-specific mortality, ax , is given by:

n
X
ax =
ln mx,t
t=1
(2.4)
The Lee-Carter model cannot fit by simple regression because there is no observed
variable on the right side. Nonetheless, a least-square solution exists and can be found
using the first element of the singular value decomposition or principal components
[4]. In order to standardize the matrix undergoing singular value decomposition and
to assure that a unique solution for the bx and kt for the system of equations of the
model,without loss of generality, proposed the following constraints:
bx = 1
and
n
X
kt = 0
(2.5)
t=1
x=1
This simply means that the total amount of morality change at a given age for one
unit of total mortality change is 1 and the total mortality index is zero.
2.3
Singular Value Decomposition
Definition 2.2. Singular Value Decomposition
Suppose M is an m x n matrix. Then there exists a factorization of the form

M = U V T
8
(2.6)
where
U
-is an m m orthogonal matrix
-is an m n matrix with non-negative numbers on the diagonal.
VT
-is the conjugate transpose of the n n orthogonal matrix V
Writing in matrix form, we have,
1,1 1,2 1,n

v1,1 v1,2 v1,n
u1,1 u1,2 u1,m
2,1 u2,2 u2,m

2,1 2,2 2,n T v2,1 v2,2 v2,n
U =
= .
V = .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
..
..
..
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
um,1 um,2 um,m

m,1 m,2 m,n
vn,1 un,2 vn,n
(2.7)
Such factorization is called the singular value decomposition of M [5]. The diagonal entries i,i , i = 1, 2, ..., m of are the singular values of M . These singular
values are are the square roots of the eigenvalues used to obtain matrix U , and listed
in descending order, and the diagonal matrix is uniquely determined by M .
The singular value decomposition Method factorization results in a real or complex

orthogonal matrices U and V T , where U *U T = V *V T = I, where I is the identity
matrix. The parameter bx is solved by the following formula:
bx =
v1,x
n
X
v1,j
j=1
(2.8)
while the first estimation of the parameter k is calculated by:
kt = vS(1)Ut,1
x, t = 1, 2, ....., n
(2.9)
where
v =
Pn
j=1
vj,1
1,1 is the first element of the diagonal matrix s from
2.4
Second Estimation of the parameter k
A second stage estimate of k is calculated by finding the value of k which, for a

given population age distribution and the previously computed coefficients of ax and
bx , which would produce the exact observed number of total deaths for the year in
observation [7]. The second estimate of k is computed such that:
Dt =
n
X
eax +bx +kt Nx,t
x=1
where
Dt
Nx,t
is the total death in year t

is the population of age interval x at year t, x =1,2,...,
10
(2.10)
2.5
Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing Method

(LES)
Time series is defined to be the set of data points whick are analyzed using statistical
techniques to obtain the statistics and characteristics of data [8].
Time series analysis deals with two goals: first is to determine the characteristics
the data exhibits and second is to forecast. For the methods for this to be utilized,
patterns of the observed time series data such as trend and seasonality should be
studied first. Analysis for such time series patterns are done to examine and remove
such properties to make the given data stationary which is a requirement for time
series techniques.
There are various time series techniques known to model and forecast future events
based on the given data. One such model is the linear exponential smoothing method.
Linear Exponential Smoothing Method (LES) method allows the forecasting data
with a trend. It computes an evolving trend equation through the data using a special
weighting function that places the greatest emphasis on the most recent time periods
[10]. This method involves a forecast equation and two smoothing equations which
must be updated every period: one equation for the level and one equation to capture
the trend [9].
11
The level equation is given by

lt = yt + (1 )(lt1 + bt1 )
(2.11)
where
yt
-is the set of actual values
bt
-is the estimate of the trend or slope of the series at time t
-is the smoothing parameter for the level, where 0 1
The level equation shows that lt is the weighted average of observations yt and the
within sample one step ahead forecast for time t, given by lt1 + bt1 . The computation
includes the weight of the previous level, lt1 and previous trend, bt1 .
The trend equation is given by
bt = (lt lt1 ) + (1 )bt1
(2.12)
where
lt
-is the estimate level of the series at time t
-is the smoothing parameter for the trend, where 0 1
The trend equation shows that bt is a weighted average of the estimated trend at
time t on lt - lt1 and bt1 , the previous estimate of the trend. The value of b0 is the
difference between the second and the first actual values y2 - y1 .
12
The forecast equation, the general formula for computing the next forecast data
value is given by:
yt+h|t = lt + hbt
(2.13)
where
h
-is the forecast horizon
-is the forecasted values
Since the Linear Exponential Smoothing Method forecasts data with trend, the
forecast function is not flat, but trending. The h-step ahead forecast is equal to the
last estimated level, lt , added to h times the last estimated trend value, bt . Thus, the
forecasts are a linear function of h. The error correction form of the level and the
trend equations show the adjustments in terms of the h-step forecast errors:
lt = lt1 + bt1 + et
(2.14)
bt = bt1 + et
(2.15)
where
et = yt - yt|t1
The smoothing parameters and are computed by minimizing the Mean Squared
13
Error (MSE) of the data through the Generalized Reduced Gradient (GRG2) Algorithm. The MSE is given the formula:
n
X
M SE =
2.6
2.6.1
e2t
t=1
(2.16)
Life Tables
The Construction of a Life Table
A life table is a table of statistics relating to life expectancy and mortality for a given
category of people. It is based on the mortality experience of a population during
a relatively short period of time. Generally, a life table shows, for each age or age
group, the probability of surviving any particular year of age and the remaining life
expectancy for people at different ages or age groups [11].
Life tables can be constructed using projections of future mortality rates, but more
often they are constructed through the use of age-specific mortality rates. Life tables
are usually constructed separately for men and for women because of their substantially different mortality rates. Other characteristics can also be used to distinguished
different risks, such as smoking status, occupation and socio-economic class [12].
14
Construction of a life table depends on the presentation of the data. A complete

life table is used for data with single years of age, and an abridged life table is used
for data with group of ages, which is more common [15].
The abridged life table is constructed through the following formulas and definitions:
qi =
ni mi
1 + (1 ai )ni mi
i = 0, 1, ..., 1
(2.17)
where
qi
is the probability that an individual will die in the ith interval
ni
is the length of the interval
mi
is the death rate in the interval
ai is the average of the fractions lived by the individuals that died in the
interval
di = li qi
(2.18)
di
is the number of artificial cohort dying in ith interval
li
is the number of artificial cohort at the start of the interval
Li = ni (li di ) + ai ni di ,
Li
i = 0, 1, 2, ....., w 1
is the number of years lived in the interval
by the artificial cohort
15
(2.19)
lw
mw
w
X
Ti =
Lk
Lw =
(2.20)
(2.21)
k=i
ei =
(2.22)
is the number of intervals
Ti
is total number of years lived by individuals from the artificial cohort
ai
ei
2.6.2
Ti
li
attaining the age that starts the interval

is the expectation of life at the age that starts the interval
Statistical Inference on Life Tables
Each figure in a life table is an estimate of the corresponding unknown true

value. Thus, statistical inference regarding these unknown values may be made on
the basis of observed quantities.
An essential element required in making statistical inference is the standard

error of the estimate. Specifically, inference will be made about two categories of estimated parameters: the probability of dying in the age group x, and its corresponding
expectation of life [13].
The probability of dying, qi , and the probability of survival, pi on an age

interval are complementary to one another, making the sample variances of their
16
estimates are equal. The sample variance of qi and pi is denoted by s2qi and s2pi ,
respectively. Thus, we have
s2qi = s2pi
(2.23)
In a life table, the estimate qi is derived from certain mortality information,

which would be manipulated to get the sample variance of qi . The equation for the
variance of qi is
s2qi =
1 2
q (1 qi )
Di i
(2.24)
And the 95% confidence interval for qi is
(
qi 1.96sqi , qi + 1.96sqi )
(2.25)
The square root of s2qi would give the standard error, sqi , of qi .
The variance of the life expectancy is computed by
s2ei =
1
X
p2i [(1 i )ni + ei+1 ]2 s2pi
i=
The square root of s2ei would give the standard error, sei , of ei
The 95% confidence interval for ei is
17
(2.26)
(
ei 1.96sei , ei + 1.96sei )
(2.27)
An observed expectation of life is a sample mean of future lifetime. Thus, statistical tests based on normal distribution may be used in making inference regarding
expectation of life at a particular age, or in comparing expectations of life of two or
more populations.
18
Chapter 3
Solving for the Parameters of the
Lee-Carter Model
In this chapter, the steps needed to obtain the necessary calculations for the
ax , bx and kt parameters for the Male, Female and Total Population of the Philippines
from 1960 to 2009 were presented.
3.1
Solving for the parameters of the Lee-Carter

model
The Lee-Carter model shows that there is an equation for each time and age
interval. As a result, a system of simultaneous equations needs to be solved so as to

estimate the values of ax , bx and kt , which are the solutions to the system. A group
19
of death rates with different r age groups that were analyzed in different moments
creates a system of equations containing 2r + n unknown factors that correspond to
the sum of the r values of ax , r values of bx and n values of kt , and r n equations.
The logarithm of the death rates is calculated.
Year
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
1960
Age
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
Male
0.0698787
0.013353008
0.002917171
0.001342569
0.001200554
0.001770714
0.002227692
0.002844456
0.003311874
0.004677319
0.005573339
0.007753851
0.008798441
0.017332353
0.016255512
0.052303832
logMale
-2.660994404
-4.316013615
-5.837140825
-6.613170559
-6.72497215
-6.336372552
-6.106789315
-5.86238356
-5.710241122
-5.365030242
-5.189760874
-4.85956571
-4.733180745
-4.055180393
-4.119323236
-2.950685635
Table 3.1: Death rates for male and its corresponding natural logarithm for 1960
Table 3.1 shows the death rates for male, computed from the age specific
number of deaths and the estimated population of the same age interval for 1960.
The first interval is for infants where observed mortality is significantly higher than
the rest of the age groups and the second interval is for early childhood.
Table 3.2 shows the sorted data to ease further computations for the male
population. This contains the natural logarithm of all age specific death rates from
20
Age
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
logm1960
-2.660995
-4.316014
-5.837141
-6.61317
-6.724972
-6.336372
-6.106789
-5.862383
-5.710241
-5.36503
-5.189761
-4.859566
-4.733181
-4.055181
-4.119323
-2.950686
logm1961
-2.788522
-4.67117
-6.085285
-6.76349
-6.636725
-6.005816
-5.764001
-5.634271
-5.426815
-5.398234
-5.012224
-4.823654
-4.499728
-4.312229
-4.052442
-2.315235
logm1962
-2.614783
-4.749695
-6.020898
-6.710989
-6.605447
-6.00369
-5.727261
-5.596931
-5.332268
-5.301457
-5.043702
-4.750865
-4.599526
-4.096692
-4.104721
-2.332829
logm1963
-2.629055
-4.714931
-6.078217
-6.749802
-6.636499
-6.016682
-5.780907
-5.625729
-5.386514
-5.39285
-5.096659
-4.868935
-4.647592
-4.18237
-4.139961
-2.40184
logm1964
-3.021058
-4.705819
-5.935295
-6.683335
-6.566495
-6.004268
-5.805523
-5.663842
-5.356634
-5.288616
-4.938013
-4.6353
-4.465935
-3.80584
-3.956599
-2.478098
logm1965
-3.04528
-4.605005
-5.96722
-6.754079
-6.548948
-6.076895
-5.794353
-5.649984
-5.384789
-5.268311
-4.916888
-4.666998
-4.436017
-3.913441
-3.723593
-2.398648
logm1966
-3.053338
-4.624796
-6.091424
-6.723209
-6.481376
-6.088617
-5.820773
-5.667739
-5.347045
-5.305217
-4.993903
-4.672024
-4.461902
-4.050662
-3.6633
-2.449082
logm1967
-3.055663
-4.807929
-6.082354
-6.673301
-6.526153
-6.080787
-5.735015
-5.596412
-5.303902
-5.217804
-4.935592
-4.664136
-4.304173
-3.986074
-3.511854
-2.36192
logm1968
-3.059738
-4.7915
-5.991465
-6.571283
-6.437752
-5.991465
-5.713833
-5.472671
-5.31852
-5.115996
-4.840893
-4.575612
-4.268698
-3.952845
-3.448289
-2.389233
logm1969
-3.061518
-4.919944
-6.165719
-6.6958
-6.454457
-6.034125
-5.77072
-5.604671
-5.350147
-5.18332
-4.906852
-4.678673
-4.29134
-4.033301
-3.535075
-2.519524
Table 3.2: Natural logarithm of death rates for male from 1960-1970
1960 up to 2009. These values are the entries for a 16 50 matrix A, where singular
value decomposition is performed.
At first, there is no unique solution for the system. Thus, it is necessary to specify
that the sum of the mortality changes is 1 and the sum of the mortality index is 0.
ax is only a simple arithmetic average over time for the natural logarithms of the age
specific mortality rates.
The ax parameter in the Lee-Carter model is the average age specific mortality
rates for the historical data, which is sorted per year. Table 3.3 shows the variable a
which would be the ax vector for the male population. Each element of a is computed
by taking the mean of the natural logarithm of death rates from 1960 up to 2009 on
a specified age group.
Once the matrix a values are determined, the system can be rewritten as:
M = M a = bk
(3.1)
This centralizes the death rates in the matrix M by subtracting the vector a to all
21
logm1970
-2.810735
-4.978096
-6.287868
-6.735619
-6.339828
-5.936202
-5.842057
-5.637821
-5.369792
-5.097877
-4.901165
-4.616521
-4.374381
-4.13794
-3.695456
-2.913381
Age
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
ax
-3.48881592
-5.4804986
-6.62845394
-7.0243722
-6.58193466
-6.07191686
-5.8692315
-5.69044752
-5.43783372
-5.1969618
-4.86884104
-4.54697644
-4.25421216
-3.86131832
-3.58330512
-2.57409308
Table 3.3: Parameter ax for male

columns of the matrix M .
Age
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
logm1960
0.8278
1.1645
0.7913
0.4112
-0.1430
-0.2645
-0.2376
-0.1719
-0.2724
-0.1681
-0.3209
-0.3126
-0.4790
-0.1939
-0.5360
-0.3766
logm1961
0.7003
0.8093
0.5432
0.2609
-0.0548
0.0661
0.1052
0.0562
0.0110
-0.2013
-0.1434
-0.2767
-0.2455
-0.4509
-0.4691
0.2589
logm1962
0.8740
0.7308
0.6076
0.3134
-0.0235
0.0682
0.1420
0.0935
0.1056
-0.1045
-0.1749
-0.2039
-0.3453
-0.2354
-0.5214
0.2413
logm1963
0.8598
0.7656
0.5502
0.2746
-0.0546
0.0552
0.0883
0.0647
0.0513
-0.1959
-0.2278
-0.3220
-0.3934
-0.3211
-0.5567
0.1723
logm1964
0.4678
0.7747
0.6932
0.3410
0.0154
0.0676
0.0637
0.0266
0.0812
-0.0917
-0.0692
-0.0883
-0.2117
0.0555
-0.3733
0.0960
logm1965
0.4435
0.8755
0.6612
0.2703
0.0330
-0.0050
0.0749
0.0405
0.0530
-0.0713
-0.0480
-0.1200
-0.1818
-0.0521
-0.1403
0.1754
logm1966
0.4355
0.8557
0.5370
0.3012
0.1006
-0.0167
0.0485
0.0227
0.0908
-0.1083
-0.1251
-0.1250
-0.2077
-0.1893
-0.0800
0.1250
logm1967
0.4332
0.6726
0.5461
0.3511
0.0558
-0.0089
0.1342
0.0940
0.1339
-0.0208
-0.0668
-0.1172
-0.0500
-0.1248
0.0715
0.2122
logm1968
0.4291
0.6890
0.6370
0.4531
0.1442
0.0805
0.1554
0.2178
0.1193
0.0810
0.0279
-0.0286
-0.0145
-0.0915
0.1350
0.1849
logm1969
0.4273
0.5606
0.4627
0.3286
0.1275
0.0378
0.0985
0.0858
0.0877
0.0136
-0.0380
-0.1317
-0.0371
-0.1720
0.0482
0.0546
Table 3.4: The centralized death rates for the Male population from 1960 - 1970
This system provides a unique solution when these constraints are included. The
bk and kt parameters are to be determined by using the Singular Value Decomposition
(SVD). This method is used to obtain the exact fitting of least squares.
22
logm1970
0.6781
0.5024
0.3406
0.2888
0.2421
0.1357
0.0272
0.0526
0.0680
0.0991
-0.0323
-0.0695
-0.1202
-0.2766
-0.1122
-0.3393
Through SVD, M can be written as the product of two matrices.

M = [mi,j ]
i = 1, 2, ,
(3.2)
In M , the (i, j) element is the sum of the product of row i of B and row j of K
which can be written as
mi,j =
r
X
Bi,j Kj,i T
(3.3)
t=1
Therefore, the decomposition creates r terms that exactly fit the mi,j element of the
M matrix. Lee and Carter suggest to only take account of the first order approximation of the resulting vectors.
For the Male Population, the results of the Singular Value Decomposition are:
Figure 3.1: The first element of the 50 50 orthogonal matrix U
Figure 3.2: The first elements of the 16 x 16 matrix V T
To perform SVD, the rows of the matrix must be greater than its columns, thus
the transpose of M is the matrix is taken. The results of the SVD in M are stored in
23
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
8.537783014
1.963967468
1.078884186
0.870581865
0.84085164
0.649561629
0.565737819
0.488925561
0.394981976
0.274754924
0.239054041
0.228880977
0.187668618
0.169365881
0.13736427
0.114767783
Table 3.5: the diagonal matrix

a unitary 50 50 matrix U , a column vector s, and a 16 16 matrix V T . Figures
3.1,and 3.2 and Figure 3.5 shows a part of the matrix U , matrix V T and matrix s.
To find the univariate time series kt for the data, the first order approximation of the
Singular Value Decomposition of matrix A is taken, that is, the first column of U , the
column vector s and the first row of V T . The first row of matrix V T is used in the
computation of each age interval in bx . The elements of bx are computed by dividing
each corresponding age specific element of V T to the sum of its elements. The same
process is done for the female and total population
Table 3.6 shows the ax and bx estimations for male, female and the total population. Higher values of bx appear in the 0-4 interval, which means that, in such
interval, mortality varies substantially when the general mortality index kt changes.
24
Age
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
bx
0.2525831
0.3304692
0.2208131
0.1212668
0.0742751
0.0673185
0.047476
0.0390297
0.0330816
0.0126288
-0.0021691
-0.0235981
-0.0490273
-0.0477929
-0.0694024
-0.0069522
Table 3.6: The parameter bx for the male population

The old ages display lower parameters which means that mortality slightly varies in
that period of time.
25
Age Group
0-1
1-4
4-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
Male
ax
-3.48882
-5.4805
-6.62845
-7.02437
-6.58193
-6.07192
-5.86923
-5.69045
-5.43783
-5.19696
-4.86884
-4.54698
-4.25421
-3.86132
-3.58331
Male
bx
0.252583
0.330469
0.220813
0.121267
0.074275
0.067319
0.047476
0.03903
0.033082
0.012629
-0.00217
-0.0236
-0.04903
-0.04779
-0.0694
Female
ax
-3.77405
-5.59969
-6.84302
-7.30471
-7.09231
-6.78958
-6.56184
-6.26195
-5.99056
-5.74492
-5.43036
-5.14822
-4.86439
-4.39049
-4.02074
Female
bx
0.148731
0.199163
0.136403
0.074358
0.064035
0.066427
0.0656
0.078201
0.065903
0.047624
0.034369
0.013193
-0.00192
0.000848
-0.00898
Total
ax
-3.61774
-5.53694
-6.72704
-7.15073
-6.8015
-6.36794
-6.15634
-5.93772
-5.67026
-5.42604
-5.10827
-4.80664
-4.51823
-4.09875
-3.78575
Total
bx
0.201719
0.267561
0.180191
0.098658
0.069447
0.064974
0.054546
0.054354
0.049973
0.029837
0.014455
-0.00708
-0.02685
-0.02348
-0.03643
Table 3.7: The ax and bx parameters fore male, female and total population in the
Philippines
Figure 3.3: ax parameter for male, female and the total population in the Philippines
Figure 3.4 shows the estimations of the shape parameter ax . These estimations
show in a way in which mortality behaves through intervals. Figure 3.4 shows the
significant difference of the mortality changes between the male and the female, meaning at most age intervals of adulthood, male deaths generally occur more than female
deaths.
26
Figure 3.4: bx parameter for men, women and the total population in the Philippines
3.1.1
Estimation of the k parameter
In the following stage, first estimations and re-estimations of the general index
of mortality are calculated for the Philippines.
The elements of the time series kx are computed by the product of the first column
of U , the sum of the elements of the first row of V t , and the column vector s. For
further accuracy, the time series must be re-estimated to fit to the corresponding
yearly total number of deaths and the population, and the computed parameters ax
and bx . The same process is done for the Female and Total Population.
Comparing the general mortality indices of the male, female and total population,
the series of these general indices clearly tend to decrease, although not monotonically,
over time. For the first half of the period, both figures show the notable increase of
27
Figure 3.5: First estimation of the parameter k for male, female and total population
female mortality over men, which decreased significantly on the lower half of the
period.
At this point, the modeling of the parameter k as a time series process can already
be done. Instead, a second stage estimate of k should be calculated by finding the
value of k which, for a given population age distribution and the previously estimated
coefficients ax and bx , produces exactly the observed number of total deaths for the
observed year. This is done since the first projections of k may cause deviation on
the projections. The second estimation for k can be obtained by:
Dt =
n
X
eax +bx kt Nx,t
x=1
where
Dt
-is the total deaths in year t
28
(3.4)
Nx,t
-is the population at age interval x in year t
Expanding the formula would produce a number of equations equivalent to the

number of years in observation.
Figure 3.6: Second estimation of the parameter k for male, female and total population
29
Chapter 4
Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing
Method (LES)
4.1
Forecasting mortality rates
The second estimation of the parameter k is used for the forecast. Holts Linear
Exponential Smoothing Method was used in the said forecast. Using the forecast,
trend and level equations given by LES, the second estimation of the mortality index
k, mortality rates from 2014 to 2018 are computed.
Year
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Male
Female
Total
-2.76448294 -1.18343741 -2.35841231
-2.65899668 -0.71670650 -1.95059866
-2.55351042 -0.24997559 -1.54278502
-2.44802416 0.21675532 -1.13497137
-2.34253790 0.68348622 -0.72715772
Table 4.1: The forecasted parameter k for male, female and total population in
Philippines
30
Male
Female
Total
MSE
0.23728213 0.14823359 0.09994884
0.31308186 0.65536894 0.14242946
0.1
0.46290818 -1.54278502
Table 4.2: The Mean Squared Error, ,and for male, female and total Population
To get a more accurate forecast, the Mean Squared Error (MSE) for Male, Female
and Total was minimized by the Solver for Microsoft Excel to get the appropriate
values for and which were used in the trend, level and forecast equations of
Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing Method.
4.2
Computing new age-specific death rates
The future age-specific death rates can be computed from the forecasted mortality
index k for 2014 up to 2018. In order to do so, the forecast values of k would be
substituted in the formula:
mx,n+h = mx,n ebx (kn+h kn )
where
mx,n
-is the age specific death rate at the last year, 2009
-is the difference of the forecasted year in year 2009
31
(4.1)
x
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
2014
0.008294
0.000819
0.000449
0.000475
0.001011
0.001643
0.002123
0.002677
0.003535
0.005036
0.007696
0.12327
0.019271
0.029751
0.039481
0.089556
2015
0.008386
0.000831
0.000453
0.000478
0.001014
0.001648
0.002127
0.002681
0.003540
0.005038
0.007695
0.012314
0.019230
0.029688
0.039361
0.089528
2016
0.008480
0.000843
0.000458
0.000480
0.001017
0.001652
0.002131
0.002686
0.003546
0.005041
0.007694
0.012301
0.019188
0.029626
0.039240
0.089501
2017
0.008575
0.000856
0.000462
0.000483
0.001021
0.001657
0.002136
0.002691
0.003551
0.005044
0.007694
0.012289
0.019147
0.029563
0.039120
0.089474
2018
0.008671
0.000868
0.000467
0.000486
0.001024
0.001662
0.002140
0.002695
0.003556
0.005047
0.007693
0.012276
0.019106
0.029501
0.039001
0.089446
bx
0.25258
0.33047
0.22081
0.12127
0.07428
0.06732
0.04748
0.03903
0.03308
0.01263
-0.00217
-0.0236
-0.04903
-0.04779
-0.0694
-0.00695
mx,2009
0.01091
0.00117
0.00057
0.00054
0.0011
0.00177
0.00223
0.00279
0.00366
0.00511
0.00768
0.01202
0.01827
0.02825
0.03662
0.08888
Table 4.3: The new age-specific death rates of male for 2014 up to 2018
32
Chapter 5
Life Tables
5.1
Constructing the life table
The average of the fractions lived by the individuals that died in the interval, ax is
computed by the exact number of age specific deaths and several other statistics and
data concerning mortality. The exact value for ax can only be calculated from the
full death records. Since this is estimated on forecasted data, it is impossible to have
specific number of deaths.
From the forecasted values of k, the age specific death rates and probabilities of
death are computed. The death rates are computed using the calculated b parameter,
the death rates and the parameter k on the last year where data is available, 2009.
The probability of death, qx , is computed using the years between age intervals and
the previously computed death rates.
33
The life table is constructed in the following order: Age, length of the interval
n, fraction of the last age interval of life ai , forecasted death rates mx , probability
of death qx , alive artificial cohort lx , deaths in the artificial cohort di , years lived
in the interval by cohort, Li , total number of years lived by individuals in cohort
at start of age interval Ti and the expectation of life ei . The statistical inference is
computed in a separate table. [12]
Age
n
ax
mx
qx
lx
dx
Lx
0-1
1 0.09 0.008271 0.008209 100000 821
99253
1-4
4 0.4 0.000816 0.003258 99179
323 395941
5-9
5 0.4 0.000448 0.002236 98856
221 493616
10-14 5 0.5 0.000475 0.002370 98635
234 492590
15-19 5 0.5 0.001010 0.005037 98401
496 490766
20-24 5 0.5 0.001642 0.008174 97905
800 487526
25-29 5 0.5 0.002122 0.010552 97105 1025 482964
30-34 5 0.5 0.002676 0.013290 96080 1277 477210
35-39 5 0.5 0.003534 0.017515 94804 1660 469867
40-44 5 0.5 0.005035 0.024862 93143 2316 459926
45-49 5 0.5 0.007696 0.037753 90827 3429 445564
50-54 5 0.5 0.012330 0.059807 87398 5227 423924
55-59 5 0.5 0.019282 0.091974 82171 7558 391962
60-64 5 0.5 0.029766 0.138522 74614 10336 347229
65-69 5 0.5 0.039510 0.179793 64278 11557 292498
>70 20 0.5 0.089563 1.000000 52721 52721 527213
Tx
6778051
6678798
6282857
5789241
5296651
4805885
4318359
3835395
3358185
2888318
2428392
1982827
1558903
1166941
819711
527213
Table 5.1: Life table for the year 2014 for the male population
34
ex
67.78051104
67.34080251
63.55570933
58.69366208
53.82717775
49.08703961
44.47098451
39.91856608
35.42254269
31.00945694
26.73633376
22.68723972
18.97137725
15.63977294
12.75258518
10
If the infant mortality rate is less than 0.02, ai =0.09. From Table 5.1, the death
rate for the first age interval is 0.008, which is less than 0.02. The values of ai for
young childhood intervals is 0.4 and adult intervals are around 0.5. The artificial
cohort, lx , is set to be 100,000 at the start of the age interval.
5.2
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
Standard error and confidence intervals

SE (qx )
0.000285721
0.00018128
0.00015041
0.000154941
0.00022578
0.000287872
0.000327985
0.000369518
0.000426131
0.000510235
0.000632447
0.000802044
0.001007945
0.001264405
0.001514212
0
Confidence Interval for qx

0.007671378
0.008791403
0.002914581
0.003625199
0.00194658
0.002536188
0.002069755
0.002677123
0.004598821
0.005483878
0.007615734
0.008744191
0.009914041
0.011199741
0.0125709
0.01401941
0.016685825
0.018356257
0.02386537
0.025865489
0.036513022
0.038992216
0.058220267
0.061364282
0.089952782
0.093903927
0.13597732
0.140933786
0.176703646
0.182639358
1
1
px
0.991769
0.996730
0.997759
0.997627
0.994959
0.991820
0.989443
0.986705
0.982479
0.975135
0.962247
0.940208
0.908072
0.861544
0.820328
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000000
G(x)
458183937.63
428631533.67
374575542.38
311465106.82
259240302.86
212495483.49
171064683.80
134535897.08
102766521.84
75715413.94
53361259.29
35625286.44
22300298.63
12886791.83
6759105.37
0.00
SE (ex)
0.515714
0.473087
0.425933
0.379117
0.335030
0.293833
0.255402
0.219309
0.185555
0.154346
0.125991
0.100781
0.078823
0.059405
0.040444
0.000000
Confidence Interval for ex

66.768487
68.790085
66.413836
68.268338
62.721930
64.391586
57.951970
59.438111
53.172075
54.485392
48.512898
49.664723
43.972461
44.973635
39.491035
40.350727
35.061413
35.788789
30.709753
31.314789
26.492377
26.986261
22.492789
22.887851
18.819826
19.128810
15.525658
15.758524
12.674837
12.833376
10.000000
10.000000
Table 5.2: Statistical Inference of forecasted rates for the year 2014 of the male
population
35
Chapter 6
Summary and Conclusions
This study computed for the log rates of the corresponding age-specific death rates
of male, female and total population. The computation showed that the first interval
is for infants where observed mortality is significantly higher than the rest of the age
groups and the second interval is for early childhood.
The log rates of the age specific death rates from 1960 up to 2009 were used to
obtain matrix A as a prerequisite in performing the Singular Value Decompostion.
The parameter ax where obtained by taking the average over time for the natural
logarithm of the age specific mortality rates. The computed ax parameters ranged
from -3 up to -7. The significant difference of the mortality changes between the male
and female was also shown in the study. It is observed that at most age intervals of
adulthood, male deaths generally occur more than female deaths.
The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) was used to determine the parameters
36
of bk and kt . For the parameter bk , higher values appeared in the 0-4 interval, which
means that, in such interval, mortality varies substantially when the general mortality
index kt changes. The old ages (50 and above) showed lower parameters which means
that mortality slightly varies during that period.
Comparing the general mortality indices of the male, female and total population,
the series of these general indeces clearly tend to decrease, although not monotonically,
over time. For the first half of the period, it is observed that there is a notable
increase of female mortality over men and decreased significantly on the lower half of
the period.
New age specific death rates were computed using the Holts Linear Exponential
Smoothing Method (LES). The Mean Squared Error (MSE) was minimized to get
the appropriate values of the parameter and which will be used in the trend,
level and forecast equations of LES. The computed and for male is 0.23728213
and 0.14823359 respectively. The computed and for female is 0.31308186 and
0.65536894 respectively. The computed and for total population is 0.1 and 0.46290818 respectively.
The computed age specific death rates from 2014 up to 2018 showed a little significant changes per interval. Also, parameter bx is negative in the 50 and above
intervals.
The computed age specific death rates were then used in constructing a life table
37
showing the mortality rate and the life expectancy at birth. It is obtained in the
table that the life expectancy of male and female is aproximately 67 and 69 years old,
respectively.
38
Chapter 7
Recommendation
This study considered data from 1960 up to 2009 with sixteen age groups and used
Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing Method in forecasting the mortality index. Future researchers interested in extending the Lee - Carter model may consider the
following recommendations:
Shorten the length of Historical data to avoid outliers and dicrepancy of
the data (ex. massacres).
Look for more recent data of death rates for better accuracy and precision
of results.
Convert the abridged life table into Illustrative Life (ILT) table using the
graduation process since insurance companies rely more on ILT.
Use Space-State Model (SSM) or other forecasting method in determining
future mortality index
39
References
[1] Boyle, P. and Parkin, D.M. Statistical Methods for Registries. International Agency
for Research on Cancer, 150 cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08, France
[2] Lee, R. (2003). Reflections on Inverse Projection: Its Origins, Development, Extensions, and Relation to Forecasting. University of California, Berkely
[3] Lee, R. The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions
and Applications. University of California, Berkely.
[4] Wang, C. and Liu, Y., (2010). Comparisons of Mortality Modelling and ForecastingEmpirical Evidence from Taiwan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. Issue 37.
[5] Skoufranis, P. (2010). Singular Value Decomposition. University of Georgia.
[6] Baker, K. (2005). Singular Value Decomposition Tutorial
[7] Andreozzi, L., Blacona, M. and Arnesi, N. (2008). The Lee Carter method for estimating and forecasting mortality: an application for Argentina. National University
of Rosario, Argentina.
[8] Mentzer, S. (2004). Time Series Forecasting Techniques. SAGE Publications, Inc.
40
[9] Kalekar, P. (2004). Time Series Forecasting using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing. Kanwal Rekshi School of Information Technology.
[10] NCSS Statistical Software. Exponential Smoothing - Trend. Chapter 466, pp. 466-1 to
466-9.
[11] Rossa, A. (2011). Future Life Tables based on the Lee-Carter methodology and their
application to calculating the pension annuities. Acta Universitatis Lodziensis, Folia
Oeconomica 250.
[12] Chiang, C. Life Table and Mortality Analysis. World Health Organization
[13] Andreev, E. and Shkolnikov, V. (2010). Spreadsheet for calculation of confidence limits
for any life table or healthy-life table quantity. Max-Planck-Institut fur demografishe
Forschung.
[14] Girosi, F. and King, G. (2007). Understanding the Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting
Method. Harvard University
[15] Cabigon, J. (2009). 2000 Life Table Estimates for the Philippines and Provinces By
Sex. University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City.
[16] Richards, SJ and Currie, ID (2009). Longetivity Risk and Annuity Pricing with LeeCarter Model.Sessional Meeting Paper. United Kingdom
41
APPENDIX A
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1960
456
1430
1509
1488
1773
1509
1237
935
839
595
621
417
369
214
168
309
1961
539
2109
2173
1888
1529
1165
924
771
685
631
567
455
366
275
179
179
1962
441
2297
2241
1936
1612
1218
961
791
695
638
578
475
371
290
186
192
1963
457
2379
2313
1987
1688
1277
1001
813
706
643
589
493
378
305
196
205
1964
671
2329
2385
2035
1667
1352
1103
908
752
636
539
438
330
237
164
226
1965
705
2417
2453
2107
1733
1402
1141
939
775
650
553
452
344
247
170
226
1966
731
2511
2544
2171
1798
1456
1182
970
799
669
566
467
359
258
176
228
1967
754
2610
2645
2233
1866
1512
1226
1004
826
687
580
482
373
269
183
230
1968
791
2650
2689
2147
1990
1645
1290
1026
975
777
652
523
428
308
204
243
1969
796
2821
2874
2355
2007
1633
1319
1074
883
727
609
508
402
292
198
243
1970
566
2570
2810
2204
1746
1584
1431
1163
980
711
612
505
443
361
238
394
1971
586
2659
2852
2314
1828
1613
1456
1209
1011
757
627
519
450
368
251
389
1972
705
2640
2889
2420
1909
1638
1481
1254
1041
800
641
535
455
376
264
388
1973
739
2716
2932
2535
1997
1666
1506
1302
1072
848
656
550
460
384
278
289
1974
762
2799
3022
2616
2053
1718
1552
1342
1104
873
675
566
475
396
287
297
1989
891
3401
3949
3754
3286
2905
2433
2100
1793
1399
1127
833
713
533
412
653
1990
930
3432
4144
3817
3373
2973
2524
2157
1842
1469
1169
958
747
575
421
651
Table 7.1: The age-specific male population from 1960 - 1975

Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1976
788
2931
3194
2713
2144
1881
1663
1356
1094
963
700
613
525
394
350
438
1977
810
3060
3240
2880
2250
1890
1665
1440
1170
945
720
630
540
450
315
405
1978
820
3050
3324
2914
2276
1912
1685
1457
1184
956
729
637
546
455
319
364
1979
838
3121
3400
2981
2329
1956
1724
1491
1211
978
745
652
559
466
326
373
1980
832
3118
3411
3049
2578
2220
1926
1528
1233
1051
829
686
531
443
351
448
1981
800
3175
3493
3122
2663
2276
1985
1598
1275
1082
861
705
548
446
358
459
1982
815
3182
3586
3186
2755
2335
2037
1675
1322
1109
899
716
550
454
367
487
1983
830
3185
3683
3248
2849
2399
2085
1752
1375
1136
939
716
581
446
336
532
1984
843
3186
3781
3312
2940
2468
2133
1826
1433
1166
978
722
591
452
341
527
1985
855
3200
3860
3385
3023
2545
2185
1094
1497
1201
1013
765
601
482
350
573
1986
866
3257
3889
3467
3095
2629
2241
1952
1567
1243
1044
784
620
496
373
590
1987
876
3310
3913
3559
3160
2721
2300
2004
1642
1287
1071
798
662
507
384
603
1988
884
3358
3933
3656
3221
2815
2364
2052
1719
1341
1097
826
650
530
412
629
Table 7.2: The age-specific male population from 1976 - 1990
42
1975
775
2873
3081
2711
2113
1768
1571
1372
1118
896
700
578
498
409
290
421
APPENDIX B
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1960
31.9
19.1
4.4
2.0
2.1
2.7
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.8
3.5
3.2
3.2
3.7
2.7
16.2
1961
33.2
19.7
4.9
2.2
2.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
3.0
2.9
3.8
3.7
4.1
3.7
3.1
17.7
1962
32.3
19.9
5.4
2.4
2.2
3.0
3.1
2.9
3.4
3.2
3.7
4.1
3.7
4.8
3.1
18.6
1963
33.0
21.3
5.3
2.3
2.2
3.1
3.1
2.9
3.2
2.9
3.6
3.8
3.6
4.7
3.1
18.6
1964
32.7
21.1
6.3
2.5
2.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.5
3.2
3.9
4.3
3.8
5.3
3.1
19.0
1965
33.5
24.2
6.3
2.5
2.5
3.2
3.5
3.3
3.6
3.3
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.9
4.1
20.5
1966
34.5
24.6
5.8
2.6
2.8
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.8
3.3
3.8
4.4
4.1
4.5
4.5
19.7
1967
35.5
21.3
6.0
2.8
2.7
3.5
4.0
3.7
4.1
3.7
4.2
4.5
5.0
5.0
5.5
21.7
1968
37.1
22.0
6.7
3.0
3.2
4.1
4.3
4.3
4.8
4.7
5.2
5.4
6.0
5.9
6.5
22.2
1969
37.3
20.6
6.0
2.9
3.2
3.9
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.1
4.5
4.7
5.5
5.2
5.8
19.6
1970
34.1
17.7
5.2
2.6
3.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.6
4.3
4.6
5.0
5.6
5.8
5.9
21.4
1971
34.5
21.1
5.6
2.7
3.3
4.8
4.6
4.5
4.9
4.7
4.7
5.2
5.8
6.2
5.7
23.2
1972
38.2
25.6
7.0
3.2
3.8
5.0
4.3
4.7
5.3
5.0
5.4
5.9
6.2
7.1
6.2
26.8
1973
39.4
26.7
6.5
3.0
3.3
4.2
3.8
4.1
4.7
4.8
5.3
5.6
6.0
7.4
6.5
25.6
1974
36.6
21.8
6.4
3.0
3.4
4.9
4.3
4.5
5.2
5.3
5.8
6.3
6.6
8.7
7.1
28.6
1975
37.6
19.3
5.7
2.9
3.9
4.9
4.5
4.1
5.1
5.1
5.7
5.9
6.3
8.9
7.0
25.5
1989
25.0
16.1
5.6
3.1
4.8
7.3
8.0
7.5
8.1
7.7
8.7
10.2
10.7
11.9
12.2
45.5
1990
23.0
12.9
4.9
3.1
4.5
7.0
7.6
7.8
7.7
8.0
8.9
10.1
10.7
12.1
11.7
45.8
1975
37.6
19.3
5.7
2.9
3.9
4.9
4.5
4.1
5.1
5.1
5.7
5.9
6.3
8.9
7.0
25.5
Table 7.3: The age-specific male deaths from 1960 - 1975

Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1976
43.3
21.0
6.4
3.1
4.1
5.2
4.8
4.6
5.5
5.8
6.2
6.6
7.0
9.8
8.0
28.0
1977
42.5
20.3
6.4
3.2
4.1
5.5
5.4
4.7
5.6
6.1
6.4
6.6
7.4
9.6
8.9
28.4
1978
41.8
19.4
6.1
3.2
4.3
5.9
5.7
5.0
5.4
6.0
6.2
7.0
7.4
9.0
8.7
27.4
1979
40.9
21.7
6.0
3.2
4.5
6.1
5.9
5.3
5.6
6.1
6.6
7.1
7.5
8.3
9.6
30.2
1980
39.2
19.7
5.5
3.2
4.5
6.1
6.2
5.8
5.8
6.7
6.9
7.7
7.6
9.0
9.8
33.0
1981
37.9
21.1
5.4
3.1
4.3
6.1
6.3
5.9
5.7
6.6
7.1
7.7
7.8
8.9
9.8
32.8
1982
36.1
21.0
5.5
3.1
4.6
6.4
6.5
6.2
5.7
7.1
7.6
8.3
8.5
9.8
9.4
35.6
1983
37.7
23.9
6.1
3.3
4.7
6.8
7.1
6.6
6.4
7.2
7.8
8.5
8.8
10.0
9.8
37.8
1984
33.4
21.4
5.7
3.1
4.7
7.0
7.2
7.0
6.5
7.2
8.0
8.6
8.8
10.0
9.5
38.0
1985
31.6
22.7
6.0
3.2
5.2
7.6
6.2
7.4
7.4
7.5
8.6
9.1
9.7
10.4
10.8
41.3
1986
30.6
19.6
5.7
3.1
5.0
7.5
8.2
7.7
7.8
7.3
8.6
9.3
10.0
10.7
11.0
40.9
1987
29.6
22.5
6.8
3.1
5.0
7.4
8.0
7.8
8.1
7.3
8.7
9.7
10.2
10.9
11.1
41.4
1988
27.4
17.5
6.1
3.2
5.0
7.3
8.2
7.7
8.1
7.7
8.8
9.7
10.1
11.3
11.4
42.7
43
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1991
20.1
9.9
4.4
2.9
4.1
7.0
7.6
7.7
7.9
8.2
8.7
10.0
10.8
12.0
11.9
44.7
1992
21.5
11.6
4.8
3.1
4.3
6.7
7.4
7.8
8.3
8.5
9.1
10.7
11.7
13.0
12.7
47.8
1993
20.2
9.1
4.0
2.9
4.4
6.7
7.4
7.7
8.4
8.8
9.7
11.0
12.2
13.6
13.5
49.1
1994
18.2
7.7
3.5
2.9
4.1
6.3
7.2
7.6
8.4
9.2
10.1
11.3
13.1
14.8
14.4
52.5
1995
17.9
7.9
3.7
2.8
4.0
5.9
7.1
7.3
8.3
8.9
10.6
11.3
13.2
14.9
15.3
53.3
1996
17.8
8.5
4.1
3.0
4.3
6.2
7.5
7.7
8.9
9.6
11.1
12.1
14.1
16.1
16.0
57.1
1997
16.5
6.8
3.5
2.8
4.2
6.0
7.4
7.8
8.7
9.8
11.4
12.4
14.3
16.5
16.5
56.7
1998
16.7
6.8
3.7
3.0
4.2
6.1
7.4
7.9
9.3
10.2
12.3
13.5
15.1
17.3
17.2
59.3
1999
14.8
5.6
3.2
2.8
4.2
6.0
7.2
7.7
9.2
10.2
12.3
13.7
15.2
17.9
17.8
59.4
2000
16.3
6.4
3.3
2.8
4.3
6.5
7.3
8.1
9.4
10.8
12.7
14.9
15.8
18.8
18.5
61.1
2001
15.4
6.4
3.3
3.0
4.4
6.8
7.4
8.6
9.8
11.2
13.4
15.9
16.6
19.4
20.0
64.2
2002
13.9
6.0
3.1
2.8
4.3
6.7
7.5
8.6
9.8
11.6
14.1
16.8
17.6
20.3
21.2
67.9
2003
13.3
5.6
3.1
2.7
4.3
6.8
7.5
8.7
10.2
12.0
14.4
17.3
18.0
20.4
21.4
67.5
2004
13.2
4.8
2.9
2.7
4.5
7.1
7.8
8.9
10.5
12.2
14.9
17.8
19.2
21.1
21.9
67.8
2005
12.8
5.0
3.0
2.8
4.6
7.0
8.3
8.7
10.9
12.6
15.7
18.6
21.2
21.3
23.5
73.9

Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
2006
12.8
5.3
3.2
2.9
4.9
7.2
8.5
8.9
11.1
12.9
16.3
19.1
21.9
22.5
24.3
76.3
2007
12.8
4.8
3.0
2.7
5.1
6.9
8.4
8.6
11.0
12.8
16.1
19.6
22.4
22.8
24.4
76.7
2008
13.1
4.9
2.9
2.8
5.1
7.2
8.5
9.0
11.0
13.2
16.5
20.1
23.6
24.1
25.4
81.3
2009
12.5
5.4
3.1
2.9
5.3
7.6
8.5
9.2
11.0
13.5
17.1
21.1
24.4
26.2
26.5
84.8

Female
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1960
23.6
16.6
3.3
1.4
1.6
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.4
2.7
2.5
2.9
2.9
2.5
17.3
1961
24.1
17.5
3.7
1.4
1.4
2.0
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.5
3.2
2.6
18.6
1962
24.1
17.6
4.2
1.7
1.5
2.3
2.6
2.7
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.7
3.5
2.6
19.6
1963
24.3
19.1
4.7
1.5
1.2
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.7
3.5
2.6
19.0
1964
23.9
18.4
5.1
1.8
1.6
2.2
2.4
2.6
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.2
2.8
3.8
2.5
20.3
1965
24.4
21.6
4.9
1.8
1.6
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.9
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.8
3.2
22.6
1966
24.8
21.3
5.2
2.0
1.7
2.0
2.5
2.6
2.9
2.7
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.4
21.4
1967
25.2
18.8
4.6
1.8
1.8
2.0
2.5
2.6
3.1
2.8
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.8
3.9
22.8
1968
22.7
18.4
4.8
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.8
3.0
3.9
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.1
4.5
4.9
24.5
1969
26.5
17.4
4.5
1.9
1.9
2.3
2.5
2.6
3.1
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.6
3.9
4.3
20.5
1970
23.9
15.1
4.0
1.9
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.6
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.5
21.0
1971
25.2
18.2
4.4
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.7
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.7
4.3
4.2
23.2
1972
27.6
22.3
5.5
2.3
2.4
2.7
2.6
3.1
3.5
3.2
3.5
3.9
3.9
5.2
4.8
27.5
Table 7.7: The age-specific female deaths from 1960 - 1975

44
1973
28.5
23.6
5.2
2.1
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.3
3.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
4.7
5.0
26.0
1974
26.9
18.9
5.0
2.1
2.4
2.8
2.7
2.9
3.6
3.5
3.6
4.1
4.2
5.9
5.3
28.9
1975
27.6
17.0
4.6
2.1
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.7
4.1
6.3
5.3
25.2
Female
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1976
31.5
18.5
5.1
2.2
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.5
3.5
3.7
4.1
4.3
7.1
5.8
28.0
1977
33.9
18.4
5.3
2.4
3.0
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.6
3.8
3.9
4.4
4.8
7.2
6.7
30.0
1978
31.8
16.9
4.7
2.4
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.7
4.2
4.4
6.6
6.3
28.0
1979
30.9
19.0
4.6
2.4
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.0
3.3
3.5
3.6
4.3
4.4
5.6
6.8
29.9
1980
26.5
16.3
4.0
2.1
2.6
3.0
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.4
3.5
4.1
4.3
5.6
6.6
30.5
1981
26.5
17.8
4.1
2.2
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.7
4.2
4.4
5.6
6.8
31.1
1982
25.6
18.3
4.3
2.2
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.6
3.7
4.4
4.5
6.1
6.4
33.2
1983
26.6
20.4
4.6
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.6
4.0
4.5
4.9
6.2
6.8
35.1
1984
23.5
17.9
4.3
2.5
2.5
3.0
3.0
3.2
3.2
3.5
3.7
4.5
4.7
6.0
6.4
35.7
1985
23.0
19.8
4.9
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.7
3.6
4.2
4.9
5.2
6.4
7.2
39.4
1986
21.6
16.9
4.5
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.6
4.2
5.1
5.3
6.4
7.3
39.5
1987
21.4
20.0
5.3
2.5
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.7
4.2
5.1
5.3
6.6
7.6
39.9
1988
19.9
14.9
4.9
2.6
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.5
3.8
3.6
4.2
5.2
5.3
6.6
7.8
41.7
1989
18.1
14.0
4.4
2.4
2.6
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.8
3.6
4.2
5.4
5.6
7.0
8.3
44.6
1990
16.6
11.0
3.8
2.3
2.5
3.0
3.3
3.4
3.7
3.7
4.1
5.3
5.7
7.0
7.8
44.8
2004
9.3
3.8
2.2
1.9
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.1
5.0
6.0
7.2
8.7
9.4
11.5
14.0
72.9
2005
8.9
4.1
2.3
2.0
2.5
3.1
3.6
4.0
5.3
6.1
7.8
9.2
10.3
11.9
14.8
79.8

Female
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1991
14.2
8.2
3.2
2.2
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.4
3.7
3.8
4.1
5.1
5.5
6.9
7.8
44.0
1992
15.3
9.8
3.7
2.5
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.5
3.9
3.9
4.2
5.4
6.1
7.4
8.3
47.0
1993
14.5
7.7
3.2
2.2
2.3
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.9
4.1
4.6
5.5
6.2
7.8
8.7
48.5
1994
12.8
6.3
2.7
2.0
2.3
2.7
3.2
3.6
3.8
4.3
4.6
5.5
6.3
8.4
9.1
51.7
1995
12.7
6.1
2.5
2.0
2.2
2.7
3.1
3.4
4.1
4.3
4.9
5.5
6.5
8.2
9.3
54.2
1996
12.7
7.0
3.1
2.1
2.3
2.7
3.1
3.4
4.1
4.5
5.1
5.7
6.9
9.0
10.1
58.0
1997
11.6
5.5
2.6
1.9
2.2
2.6
3.1
3.4
4.2
4.6
5.4
5.9
6.8
9.1
10.4
58.2
1998
11.5
5.5
2.9
2.1
2.3
2.8
3.2
3.6
4.3
4.8
5.6
6.3
7.3
9.5
10.9
59.7
1999
10.4
4.5
2.1
1.8
2.1
2.6
3.0
3.4
4.3
4.9
5.7
6.6
7.4
9.7
11.2
60.6
2000
11.4
5.3
2.4
1.9
2.2
2.8
3.2
3.7
4.5
5.3
6.2
7.3
7.7
10.4
11.7
63.3
2001
10.7
5.3
2.4
2.0
2.4
3.1
3.4
3.9
4.8
5.5
6.5
7.7
8.2
10.6
12.6
66.7
2002
9.9
4.9
2.3
2.0
2.3
2.9
3.1
4.0
4.8
5.9
6.9
8.2
8.7
11.2
13.7
72.9
2003
9.5
4.7
2.2
2.0
2.3
3.0
3.4
4.0
4.8
5.8
7.0
8.4
8.8
11.0
13.6
71.7

Female
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
2006
9.0
4.4
2.4
2.1
2.5
3.2
3.8
4.2
5.4
6.4
8.1
9.7
11.0
12.5
15.0
82.9
2007
8.9
3.9
2.1
1.9
2.6
3.3
3.7
4.1
5.5
6.3
8.0
10.0
11.1
12.5
15.3
84.5
2008
9.3
4.1
2.2
2.1
2.7
3.3
3.7
4.3
5.5
6.5
8.4
10.2
11.8
13.3
15.6
89.9
2009
9.2
4.4
2.3
2.0
2.8
3.4
4.0
4.4
5.5
7.0
8.7
10.7
12.6
14.3
16.2
93.4

45
1975
27.6
17.0
4.6
2.1
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.8
3.4
3.3
3.5
3.7
4.1
6.3
5.3
25.2
Total
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1960
55.5
35.7
7.7
3.4
3.7
4.8
5.0
5.1
5.5
5.2
6.2
5.8
6.1
6.6
5.2
33.5
1961
57.3
37.2
8.6
3.6
3.4
4.9
5.3
5.3
5.8
5.5
6.9
6.4
6.6
6.9
5.7
36.3
1962
56.4
37.5
9.6
4.1
3.7
5.3
5.7
5.7
6.4
6.1
6.7
7.1
6.4
8.3
5.7
38.2
1963
57.3
40.4
10.0
3.9
3.5
5.1
5.4
5.2
5.9
5.5
6.4
6.6
6.3
8.1
5.7
37.5
1964
56.6
39.5
11.4
4.4
4.0
5.5
5.7
5.8
6.6
6.1
6.8
7.4
6.6
9.1
5.7
39.3
1965
58.0
45.8
11.2
4.2
4.1
5.3
5.9
5.7
6.5
6.0
7.1
7.3
7.1
8.7
7.3
43.1
1966
59.3
46.0
11.0
4.6
4.4
5.3
6.0
5.9
6.7
6.1
6.8
7.4
7.2
7.6
7.9
41.1
1967
60.7
40.1
10.6
4.6
4.5
5.5
6.5
6.3
7.3
6.6
7.2
7.7
8.4
8.8
9.4
44.5
1968
59.8
40.4
11.5
5.1
5.2
6.5
7.0
7.3
8.7
8.0
8.7
9.3
10.1
10.4
11.4
46.7
1969
63.7
38.0
10.6
4.8
5.1
6.2
6.6
6.5
7.3
6.9
7.6
7.8
9.1
9.0
10.1
40.0
1970
58.0
32.8
9.2
4.5
5.6
6.5
6.5
6.8
7.5
7.2
7.7
8.1
9.2
9.8
10.4
42.3
1971
59.7
39.3
10.1
4.5
5.3
7.2
6.9
7.1
8.0
7.6
7.8
8.5
9.5
10.5
9.9
46.4
1972
65.7
47.9
12.5
5.5
6.2
7.7
6.9
7.8
8.8
8.2
8.8
9.8
10.1
12.4
11.0
54.3
1973
67.9
50.3
11.7
5.1
5.5
6.9
6.4
7.0
8.0
8.0
9.3
9.4
9.8
12.1
11.6
51.6
1974
63.5
40.7
11.5
5.1
5.8
7.8
7.0
7.4
8.8
8.8
9.4
10.4
10.7
14.6
12.4
57.5
1975
65.2
36.4
10.3
5.0
6.4
7.8
7.3
6.9
8.6
8.4
9.2
9.6
10.4
15.2
12.3
50.7
Table 7.11: The age-specific total deaths from 1960 - 1975
Total
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1976
74.8
39.5
11.5
5.3
6.9
8.0
7.7
7.7
9.0
9.3
9.8
10.7
11.4
16.9
13.8
56.0
1977
76.3
38.7
11.7
5.6
7.0
8.7
8.7
7.7
9.2
9.8
10.3
10.9
12.2
16.9
15.6
58.3
1978
73.6
36.3
10.8
5.6
6.9
9.0
8.7
7.9
8.7
9.5
9.9
11.2
11.8
15.5
15.0
55.4
1979
71.8
40.7
10.6
5.6
7.4
9.1
9.0
8.2
8.9
9.7
10.1
11.3
11.9
13.9
16.4
60.1
1980
65.7
36.0
9.4
5.3
7.0
9.0
9.2
8.7
8.9
10.1
10.4
11.8
11.9
14.6
16.4
63.5
1981
64.4
38.9
9.5
5.2
6.9
9.0
9.4
9.0
8.8
10.0
10.7
11.8
12.3
14.6
16.6
63.9
1982
61.7
39.3
9.8
5.3
7.2
9.4
9.6
9.3
8.7
10.7
11.3
12.7
13.0
15.8
15.9
68.8
1983
64.3
44.3
10.7
5.7
7.3
9.8
10.4
9.9
9.7
10.8
11.8
13.0
13.7
16.2
16.6
73.0
1984
56.9
39.3
9.9
5.6
7.2
10.0
10.2
10.2
9.7
10.7
11.8
13.0
13.6
16.0
15.9
73.7
1985
54.6
42.5
10.9
5.6
8.1
10.8
9.8
10.9
11.1
11.2
12.8
13.9
14.9
16.8
18.0
80.7
1986
52.3
36.5
10.2
5.6
7.8
10.7
11.7
11.4
11.4
10.8
12.8
14.5
15.3
17.1
18.3
80.4
1987
51.1
42.5
12.1
5.7
7.7
10.5
11.4
11.3
11.8
11.0
12.8
14.8
15.5
17.5
18.7
81.3
1988
47.2
32.4
11.0
5.7
7.8
10.4
11.5
11.2
11.8
11.2
12.9
14.9
15.5
17.9
19.2
84.5
1989
43.0
30.1
10.0
5.5
7.3
10.3
11.3
10.9
11.8
11.3
13.0
15.6
16.2
18.8
20.4
90.1
1990
39.6
23.9
8.7
5.5
7.0
10.0
10.9
11.3
11.5
11.7
12.9
15.4
16.4
19.1
19.5
90.7
Total
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1991
34.3
18.1
7.5
5.1
6.5
9.7
10.8
11.0
11.7
12.0
12.8
15.1
16.4
18.8
19.7
88.7
1992
36.8
21.4
8.5
5.5
6.8
9.6
10.4
11.3
12.1
12.4
13.3
16.1
17.8
20.4
21.0
94.8
1993
34.7
16.9
7.2
5.1
6.7
9.5
10.6
11.2
12.3
12.9
14.3
16.5
18.5
21.4
22.2
97.6
1994
31.1
14.0
6.1
5.0
6.4
9.0
10.4
11.2
12.2
13.5
14.8
16.9
19.4
23.2
23.5
104.3
1995
30.6
14.0
6.2
4.8
6.2
8.6
10.1
10.7
12.4
13.2
15.5
16.8
19.7
23.1
24.6
107.5
1996
30.6
15.5
7.2
5.1
6.6
8.9
10.6
11.1
13.0
14.1
16.1
17.8
21.0
25.1
26.1
115.1
1997
28.1
12.3
6.1
4.8
6.4
8.5
10.5
11.1
12.9
14.4
16.8
18.3
21.2
25.6
26.9
114.9
1998
28.2
12.3
6.6
5.0
6.6
8.9
10.6
11.5
13.5
15.0
17.9
19.8
22.4
26.8
28.1
119.1
1999
25.2
10.1
5.3
4.5
6.4
8.6
10.2
11.1
13.5
15.1
18.0
20.3
22.6
27.6
29.0
120.0
2000
27.7
11.7
5.7
4.8
6.4
9.4
10.5
11.9
13.9
16.0
18.9
22.2
23.5
29.2
30.2
124.4
2001
26.1
11.7
5.7
5.0
6.8
9.8
10.7
12.5
14.6
16.7
19.9
23.7
24.7
30.1
32.6
130.9
2002
23.8
11.0
5.3
4.8
6.6
9.7
10.7
12.6
14.7
17.5
21.0
25.0
26.3
31.5
34.9
140.8
46
2003
22.8
10.3
5.3
4.6
6.6
9.8
10.9
12.7
15.0
17.8
21.5
25.8
26.8
31.4
35.0
139.2
2004
22.6
8.6
5.2
4.7
6.9
10.1
11.2
13.0
15.5
18.3
22.1
26.5
28.6
32.6
35.9
140.7
2005
21.7
9.2
5.2
4.8
7.1
10.1
11.9
12.7
16.2
18.7
23.5
27.8
31.5
33.2
38.3
153.6
Total
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
2006
21.8
9.6
5.6
5.0
7.4
10.4
12.3
13.1
16.5
19.3
24.5
28.8
32.9
35.0
39.3
159.2
2007
21.7
8.7
5.1
4.7
7.6
10.2
12.1
12.7
16.4
19.1
24.1
29.6
33.5
35.3
39.7
161.1
2008
22.4
9.1
5.1
4.9
7.8
10.5
12.2
13.2
16.5
19.7
24.9
30.2
35.4
37.5
41.0
171.2
2009
21.7
9.8
5.4
4.9
8.2
11.0
12.5
13.6
16.5
20.5
25.8
31.8
37.0
40.5
42.8
178.2
47
APPENDIX C
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1960
0.070
0.013
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.009
0.017
0.016
0.052
1961
0.062
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.011
0.013
0.017
0.099
1962
0.073
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.010
0.017
0.016
0.097
1963
0.072
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.015
0.016
0.091
1964
0.049
0.009
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.005
0.007
0.010
0.011
0.022
0.019
0.084
1965
0.048
0.010
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.007
0.009
0.012
0.020
0.024
0.091
1966
0.047
0.010
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.005
0.007
0.009
0.012
0.017
0.026
0.086
1967
0.047
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.007
0.009
0.014
0.019
0.030
0.094
1968
0.047
0.008
0.003
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.014
0.019
0.032
0.092
1969
0.047
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.009
0.014
0.018
0.029
0.080
1970
0.060
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.010
0.013
0.016
0.025
0.054
1971
0.059
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.010
0.013
0.017
0.023
0.060
1972
0.054
0.010
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.014
0.019
0.024
0.069
1973
0.053
0.010
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.013
0.019
0.024
0.089
1974
0.048
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.011
0.014
0.022
0.025
0.096
Table 7.15: The age-specific male death rates from 1960 - 1975
Male
0-1
1-4
9-May
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1976
0.055
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.011
0.013
0.025
0.023
0.064
1977
0.052
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.010
0.014
0.021
0.028
0.070
1978
0.051
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.011
0.013
0.020
0.027
0.075
1979
0.049
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.011
0.013
0.018
0.029
0.081
1980
0.047
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.014
0.020
0.028
0.074
1981
0.047
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.014
0.020
0.027
0.072
1982
0.044
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.015
0.022
0.026
0.073
1983
0.045
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.015
0.022
0.029
0.071
1984
0.040
0.007
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.015
0.022
0.028
0.072
1985
0.037
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.007
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.016
0.021
0.031
0.072
1986
0.035
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.016
0.022
0.029
0.069
1987
0.034
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.015
0.022
0.029
0.069
Table 7.16: The age-specific male death rates from 1976 - 1990
48
1988
0.031
0.005
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.016
0.021
0.028
0.068
1989
0.028
0.005
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.015
0.022
0.029
0.070
1990
0.025
0.004
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.014
0.021
0.028
0.070
1975
0.049
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.013
0.022
0.024
0.061
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1991
0.021
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.010
0.014
0.020
0.027
0.067
1992
0.022
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.007
0.011
0.014
0.020
0.030
0.067
1993
0.020
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.010
0.015
0.021
0.029
0.069
1994
0.017
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.010
0.015
0.022
0.030
0.072
1995
0.018
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.016
0.023
0.034
0.082
1996
0.018
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.010
0.016
0.024
0.032
0.085
1997
0.016
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.010
0.015
0.023
0.032
0.080
1998
0.016
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.016
0.024
0.032
0.080
1999
0.015
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.010
0.015
0.023
0.032
0.076
2000
0.016
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.015
0.024
0.032
0.075
2001
0.015
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.015
0.023
0.033
0.076
2002
0.014
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.015
0.024
0.034
0.076
2003
0.013
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.015
0.023
0.033
0.073
2004
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.012
0.019
0.025
0.038
0.080
2005
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.017
0.025
0.035
0.084
Table 7.17: The age-specific death rates from 1991 - 2005

Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
2006
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.012
0.017
0.026
0.036
0.085
2007
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.011
0.017
0.026
0.037
0.082
2008
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.027
0.036
0.087
2009
0.011
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.028
0.037
0.089
Table 7.18: The age-specific death rates from 2006 - 2009

Female
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1960
0.054
0.012
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.013
0.015
0.056
1961
0.047
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.006
0.007
0.012
0.015
0.107
1962
0.057
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.013
0.015
0.102
1963
0.056
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.012
0.014
0.093
1964
0.036
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.015
0.014
0.080
1965
0.035
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.015
0.018
0.088
1966
0.035
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.018
0.083
1967
0.034
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.020
0.087
1968
0.032
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.005
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.016
0.027
0.090
1969
0.034
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.020
0.073
1970
0.045
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.007
0.011
0.018
0.052
1971
0.046
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.007
0.011
0.016
0.057
1972
0.041
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.013
0.017
0.067
Table 7.19: The age-specific female death rates from 1960 - 1975
49
1973
0.040
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.006
0.007
0.011
0.017
0.087
1974
0.037
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.014
0.017
0.094
1975
0.036
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.005
0.007
0.013
0.017
0.059
Female
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1976
0.038
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.013
0.022
0.064
1977
0.042
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.015
0.021
0.072
1978
0.041
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.006
0.012
0.017
0.068
1979
0.039
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.021
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.006
0.010
0.018
0.071
1980
0.033
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.064
1981
0.035
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.063
1982
0.033
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.018
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.016
0.066
1983
0.034
0.007
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.013
0.019
0.062
1984
0.029
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.062
1985
0.028
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.013
0.019
0.067
1986
0.026
0.005
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.065
1987
0.026
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.062
1988
0.024
0.005
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.007
0.009
0.017
0.064
1989
0.021
0.004
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.008
0.011
0.017
0.066
1990
0.019
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.011
0.016
0.060
2004
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.012
0.021
0.066
2005
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.013
0.019
0.068
Female
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1991
0.016
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.007
0.011
0.016
0.057
1992
0.018
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.019
0.072
1993
0.015
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.005
0.007
0.011
0.017
0.058
1994
0.013
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.005
0.007
0.012
0.017
0.059
1995
0.014
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.012
0.018
0.067
1996
0.014
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.013
0.018
0.070
1997
0.012
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.012
0.018
0.067
1998
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.012
0.018
0.065
1999
0.011
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.012
0.018
0.063
2000
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.013
0.019
0.063
2001
0.011
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.012
0.019
0.063
2002
0.010
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.007
0.012
0.020
0.066
2003
0.010
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.007
0.012
0.019
0.062
Female
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
2006
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.019
0.069
2007
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.020
0.064
2008
0.009
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.014
0.019
0.072
2009
0.008
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.015
0.020
0.074
50
Total
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1960
0.062
0.013
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.009
0.015
0.015
0.054
1961
0.054
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.007
0.009
0.013
0.016
0.103
1962
0.065
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.009
0.015
0.016
0.100
1963
0.064
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.014
0.015
0.092
1964
0.043
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.019
0.017
0.082
1965
0.042
0.010
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.017
0.021
0.090
1966
0.041
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.014
0.021
0.085
1967
0.041
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.016
0.024
0.090
1968
0.040
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.007
0.009
0.013
0.018
0.029
0.091
1969
0.041
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.015
0.024
0.077
1970
0.053
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.013
0.021
0.053
1971
0.053
0.008
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.014
0.019
0.058
1972
0.048
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.009
0.010
0.016
0.020
0.068
1973
0.047
0.009
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.088
1974
0.043
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.009
0.011
0.018
0.021
0.095
1989
0.025
0.005
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.007
0.012
0.016
0.022
0.068
1990
0.022
0.004
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.016
0.022
0.065
2004
0.011
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.014
0.018
0.029
0.072
2005
0.010
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.019
0.027
0.075
Table 7.23: The age-specific total death rates from 1960 - 1975
Total
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1976
0.046
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.010
0.018
0.022
0.064
1977
0.047
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.007
0.008
0.010
0.018
0.025
0.071
1978
0.046
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.016
0.022
0.072
1979
0.044
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.005
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.009
0.014
0.023
0.076
1980
0.040
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.016
0.023
0.069
1981
0.041
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.016
0.022
0.067
1982
0.039
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.010
0.009
0.011
0.017
0.021
0.069
1983
0.040
0.007
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.011
0.018
0.024
0.067
1984
0.035
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.011
0.017
0.022
0.067
1985
0.033
0.007
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.004
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.012
0.017
0.025
0.070
1986
0.031
0.006
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.012
0.017
0.023
0.067
1987
0.030
0.007
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.012
0.017
0.023
0.065
1988
0.027
0.005
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.011
0.014
0.022
0.066
Total
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
1991
0.018
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.010
0.015
0.021
0.062
1992
0.020
0.003
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.003
0.005
0.006
0.009
0.012
0.017
0.024
0.069
1993
0.017
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.016
0.022
0.063
1994
0.015
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.008
0.011
0.017
0.023
0.065
1995
0.016
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.017
0.026
0.074
1996
0.016
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.012
0.018
0.025
0.077
1997
0.014
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.018
0.025
0.073
1998
0.014
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.018
0.025
0.072
1999
0.013
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.018
0.025
0.069
2000
0.014
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.018
0.025
0.068
2001
0.013
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.018
0.026
0.069
2002
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.011
0.018
0.027
0.071
2003
0.012
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.011
0.017
0.026
0.067
51
1975
0.042
0.006
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.006
0.008
0.010
0.017
0.020
0.060
Total
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
>70
2006
0.010
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.019
0.027
0.076
2007
0.010
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.019
0.028
0.072
2008
0.010
0.001
0.000
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.013
0.020
0.027
0.079
2009
0.010
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.001
0.001
0.002
0.002
0.003
0.004
0.006
0.009
0.014
0.021
0.028
0.080
52
APPENDIX D
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70
1960
-2.66
-4.32
-5.84
-6.61
-6.72
-6.34
-6.11
-5.86
-5.71
-5.37
-5.19
-4.86
-4.73
-4.06
-4.12
-2.95
1961
-2.79
-4.67
-6.09
-6.76
-6.64
-6.01
-5.76
-5.63
-5.43
-5.40
-5.01
-4.82
-4.50
-4.31
-4.05
-2.32
1962
-2.61
-4.75
-6.02
-6.71
-6.61
-6.00
-5.73
-5.60
-5.33
-5.30
-5.04
-4.75
-4.60
-4.10
-4.10
-2.33
1963
-2.63
-4.71
-6.08
-6.75
-6.64
-6.02
-5.78
-5.63
-5.39
-5.39
-5.10
-4.87
-4.65
-4.18
-4.14
-2.40
1964
-3.02
-4.71
-5.94
-6.68
-6.57
-6.00
-5.81
-5.66
-5.36
-5.29
-4.94
-4.64
-4.47
-3.81
-3.96
-2.48
1965
-3.05
-4.61
-5.97
-6.75
-6.55
-6.08
-5.79
-5.65
-5.38
-5.27
-4.92
-4.67
-4.44
-3.91
-3.72
-2.40
1966
-3.05
-4.62
-6.09
-6.72
-6.48
-6.09
-5.82
-5.67
-5.35
-5.31
-4.99
-4.67
-4.46
-4.05
-3.66
-2.45
1967
-3.06
-4.81
-6.08
-6.67
-6.53
-6.08
-5.74
-5.60
-5.30
-5.22
-4.94
-4.66
-4.30
-3.99
-3.51
-2.36
1968
-3.06
-4.79
-5.99
-6.57
-6.44
-5.99
-5.71
-5.47
-5.32
-5.12
-4.84
-4.58
-4.27
-3.95
-3.45
-2.39
1969
-3.06
-4.92
-6.17
-6.70
-6.45
-6.03
-5.77
-5.60
-5.35
-5.18
-4.91
-4.68
-4.29
-4.03
-3.54
-2.52
1970
-2.81
-4.98
-6.29
-6.74
-6.34
-5.94
-5.84
-5.64
-5.37
-5.10
-4.90
-4.62
-4.37
-4.14
-3.70
-2.91
1971
-2.83
-4.84
-6.23
-6.75
-6.33
-5.82
-5.76
-5.60
-5.32
-5.09
-4.89
-4.61
-4.35
-4.09
-3.79
-2.82
1972
-2.92
-4.64
-6.03
-6.64
-6.21
-5.80
-5.83
-5.58
-5.28
-5.08
-4.78
-4.51
-4.29
-3.96
-3.75
-2.67
1973
-2.93
-4.62
-6.12
-6.75
-6.40
-5.97
-5.98
-5.76
-5.43
-5.18
-4.82
-4.59
-4.34
-3.95
-3.75
-2.42
1974
-3.04
-4.85
-6.15
-6.76
-6.39
-5.85
-5.89
-5.70
-5.36
-5.10
-4.76
-4.50
-4.28
-3.82
-3.70
-2.34
Table 7.27: The age-specific male logarithm of death rates from 1960 - 1975
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70
1976
-2.90
-4.94
-6.22
-6.79
-6.26
-5.90
-5.84
-5.68
-5.30
-5.11
-4.73
-4.53
-4.31
-3.69
-3.78
-2.75
1977
-2.95
-5.01
-6.22
-6.81
-6.31
-5.84
-5.74
-5.73
-5.34
-5.05
-4.72
-4.56
-4.29
-3.84
-3.57
-2.66
1978
-2.97
-5.06
-6.30
-6.81
-6.28
-5.77
-5.69
-5.68
-5.39
-5.08
-4.76
-4.51
-4.31
-3.93
-3.60
-2.59
1979
-3.02
-4.97
-6.34
-6.84
-6.24
-5.77
-5.68
-5.64
-5.37
-5.07
-4.73
-4.53
-4.31
-4.03
-3.53
-2.51
1980
-3.06
-5.06
-6.43
-6.87
-6.36
-5.90
-5.74
-5.58
-5.37
-5.06
-4.79
-4.49
-4.24
-3.89
-3.58
-2.61
1981
-3.05
-5.01
-6.48
-6.93
-6.42
-5.92
-5.75
-5.60
-5.40
-5.10
-4.80
-4.52
-4.25
-3.91
-3.60
-2.64
1982
-3.12
-5.02
-6.48
-6.93
-6.40
-5.90
-5.75
-5.60
-5.44
-5.05
-4.77
-4.46
-4.17
-3.84
-3.66
-2.62
1983
-3.09
-4.89
-6.41
-6.88
-6.41
-5.87
-5.68
-5.58
-5.38
-5.06
-4.79
-4.44
-4.19
-3.80
-3.54
-2.64
1984
-3.23
-5.00
-6.50
-6.96
-6.45
-5.87
-5.69
-5.56
-5.40
-5.09
-4.80
-4.43
-4.20
-3.81
-3.59
-2.63
1985
-3.30
-4.95
-6.46
-6.97
-6.37
-5.82
-5.86
-4.99
-5.32
-5.07
-4.77
-4.43
-4.12
-3.84
-3.48
-2.63
1986
-3.34
-5.11
-6.53
-7.01
-6.43
-5.86
-5.61
-5.53
-5.31
-5.14
-4.80
-4.43
-4.13
-3.83
-3.53
-2.67
1987
-3.39
-4.99
-6.36
-7.03
-6.45
-5.90
-5.66
-5.55
-5.32
-5.18
-4.82
-4.41
-4.17
-3.84
-3.54
-2.68
1988
-3.48
-5.26
-6.47
-7.06
-6.46
-5.95
-5.67
-5.58
-5.36
-5.16
-4.83
-4.45
-4.16
-3.85
-3.59
-2.69
1989
-3.58
-5.35
-6.57
-7.09
-6.54
-5.99
-5.72
-5.63
-5.40
-5.20
-4.86
-4.40
-4.20
-3.80
-3.52
-2.66
53
1990
-3.70
-5.58
-6.75
-7.11
-6.63
-6.05
-5.81
-5.62
-5.48
-5.21
-4.88
-4.55
-4.24
-3.86
-3.59
-2.65
1975
-3.03
-5.00
-6.29
-6.85
-6.31
-5.88
-5.85
-5.81
-5.38
-5.16
-4.81
-4.58
-4.37
-3.83
-3.72
-2.80
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70
1991
-3.86
-5.88
-6.88
-7.22
-6.73
-6.08
-5.82
-5.67
-5.47
-5.22
-4.92
-4.59
-4.26
-3.90
-3.59
-2.70
1992
-3.81
-5.81
-6.71
-7.07
-6.61
-6.01
-5.84
-5.71
-5.50
-5.15
-4.92
-4.51
-4.25
-3.89
-3.51
-2.71
1993
-3.92
-6.02
-6.96
-7.21
-6.72
-6.17
-5.93
-5.72
-5.48
-5.25
-4.92
-4.57
-4.23
-3.85
-3.55
-2.67
1994
-4.05
-6.21
-7.11
-7.23
-6.81
-6.25
-5.98
-5.76
-5.51
-5.24
-4.91
-4.56
-4.20
-3.80
-3.52
-2.64
1995
-3.99
-6.20
-7.13
-7.27
-6.83
-6.26
-6.01
-5.81
-5.58
-5.27
-4.87
-4.51
-4.16
-3.76
-3.38
-2.50
1996
-4.03
-6.13
-7.02
-7.22
-6.76
-6.28
-5.96
-5.79
-5.49
-5.23
-4.89
-4.56
-4.16
-3.74
-3.44
-2.47
1997
-4.11
-6.35
-7.19
-7.30
-6.81
-6.33
-5.99
-5.81
-5.54
-5.24
-4.89
-4.58
-4.18
-3.75
-3.44
-2.52
1998
-4.11
-6.34
-7.13
-7.27
-6.82
-6.33
-6.01
-5.82
-5.51
-5.24
-4.85
-4.53
-4.16
-3.75
-3.43
-2.53
1999
-4.23
-6.53
-7.30
-7.36
-6.83
-6.37
-6.07
-5.86
-5.54
-5.27
-4.89
-4.56
-4.19
-3.75
-3.44
-2.57
2000
-4.13
-6.41
-7.29
-7.35
-6.85
-6.31
-6.07
-5.84
-5.54
-5.25
-4.89
-4.51
-4.19
-3.74
-3.43
-2.58
2001
-4.19
-6.41
-7.27
-7.32
-6.84
-6.29
-6.09
-5.81
-5.54
-5.24
-4.87
-4.49
-4.19
-3.75
-3.40
-2.58
2002
-4.29
-6.47
-7.36
-7.40
-6.87
-6.32
-6.09
-5.84
-5.56
-5.24
-4.85
-4.47
-4.18
-3.75
-3.39
-2.57
2003
-4.34
-6.55
-7.35
-7.46
-6.89
-6.33
-6.12
-5.84
-5.55
-5.23
-4.87
-4.48
-4.20
-3.78
-3.42
-2.62
2004
-4.42
-6.82
-7.52
-7.49
-6.88
-6.30
-6.06
-5.84
-5.55
-5.24
-4.82
-4.39
-3.99
-3.70
-3.28
-2.52
Male
0-1
1-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70
2006
-4.44
-6.72
-7.38
-7.47
-6.84
-6.34
-6.04
-5.85
-5.54
-5.26
-4.86
-4.46
-4.05
-3.66
-3.34
-2.47
2007
-4.42
-6.82
-7.51
-7.55
-6.84
-6.34
-6.07
-5.89
-5.61
-5.28
-4.90
-4.48
-4.05
-3.65
-3.28
-2.50
2008
-4.45
-6.82
-7.52
-7.54
-6.84
-6.37
-6.08
-5.89
-5.59
-5.28
-4.89
-4.45
-4.02
-3.63
-3.33
-2.44
2009
-4.52
-6.75
-7.47
-7.52
-6.82
-6.34
-6.10
-5.88
-5.61
-5.28
-4.87
-4.42
-4.00
-3.57
-3.31
-2.42
54
2005
-4.42
-6.75
-7.44
-7.47
-6.88
-6.34
-6.05
-5.86
-5.55
-5.27
-4.88
-4.47
-4.06
-3.69
-3.35
-2.48
APPENDIX E
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.008386
0.000831
0.000453
0.000478
0.001014
0.001648
0.002127
0.002681
0.003540
0.005038
0.007695
0.012314
0.019230
0.029688
0.039361
0.089528
qx
0.008323
0.003318
0.002263
0.002386
0.005058
0.008204
0.010579
0.013318
0.017546
0.024879
0.037749
0.059732
0.091739
0.138184
0.179172
1.000000
lx
100000
99168
98839
98615
98380
97882
97079
96052
94773
93110
90793
87366
82148
74611
64301
52780
dx
832
329
224
235
498
803
1027
1279
1663
2316
3427
5219
7536
10310
11521
52780
Lx
99243
395881.2291
493522.4088
492486.7372
490654.4923
487402.9181
482827.8442
477062.3456
469707.016
459758.4851
445398.8332
423784.0382
391897.3267
347281.6678
292703.8904
527802.8653
Tx
6777415
6678172
6282291
5788768
5296282
4805627
4318224
3835396
3358334
2888627
2428869
1983470
1559686
1167788
820507
527803
Table 7.31: Life table for the year 2015 of the male population
55
ex
67.7741472
67.342199
63.56104235
58.70068786
53.83511147
49.09607603
44.4815203
39.93038653
35.43560885
31.02383074
26.75158384
22.70297283
18.98639788
15.65160904
12.76035077
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.008386
0.000831
0.000453
0.000478
0.001014
0.001648
0.002127
0.002681
0.003540
0.005038
0.007695
0.012314
0.019230
0.029688
0.039361
0.089528
qx
0.008323
0.003318
0.002263
0.002386
0.005058
0.008204
0.010579
0.013318
0.017546
0.024879
0.037749
0.059732
0.091739
0.138184
0.179172
1.000000
lx
100000
99168
98839
98615
98380
97882
97079
96052
94773
93110
90793
87366
82148
74611
64301
52780
dx
832
329
224
235
498
803
1027
1279
1663
2316
3427
5219
7536
10310
11521
52780
Lx
99243
395881.2291
493522.4088
492486.7372
490654.4923
487402.9181
482827.8442
477062.3456
469707.016
459758.4851
445398.8332
423784.0382
391897.3267
347281.6678
292703.8904
527802.8653
Tx
6777415
6678172
6282291
5788768
5296282
4805627
4318224
3835396
3358334
2888627
2428869
1983470
1559686
1167788
820507
527803
ex
67.7741472
67.342199
63.56104235
58.70068786
53.83511147
49.09607603
44.4815203
39.93038653
35.43560885
31.02383074
26.75158384
22.70297283
18.98639788
15.65160904
12.76035077
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.008575
0.000856
0.000462
0.000483
0.001021
0.001657
0.002136
0.002691
0.003551
0.005044
0.007694
0.012289
0.019147
0.029563
0.039120
0.089474
qx
0.008509
0.003416
0.002308
0.002412
0.005091
0.008253
0.010623
0.013363
0.017597
0.024906
0.037742
0.059612
0.091362
0.137643
0.178177
1.000000
lx
100000
99149
98810
98582
98345
97844
97037
96006
94723
93056
90738
87314
82109
74607
64338
52874
dx
851
339
228
238
501
807
1031
1283
1667
2318
3425
5205
7502
10269
11464
52874
Lx
99226
395783.7202
493368.264
492317.8239
490471.7567
487201.3651
482605.5985
476821.1217
469446.5657
459485.2026
445129.3677
423555.5226
391789.3507
347362.4836
293030.7759
528744.0133
Tx
6776339
6677113
6281329
5787961
5295643
4805171
4317970
3835364
3358543
2889097
2429612
1984482
1560927
1169137
821775
528744
56
ex
67.76338635
67.34414443
63.56947172
58.71188386
53.84778084
49.11052872
44.49839672
39.94933658
35.45656843
31.04689887
26.77606209
22.72822573
19.01050026
15.67059324
12.77279293
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.008671
0.000868
0.000467
0.000486
0.001024
0.001662
0.002140
0.002695
0.003556
0.005047
0.007693
0.012276
0.019106
0.029501
0.039001
0.089446
qx
0.008603
0.003466
0.002330
0.002425
0.005108
0.008277
0.010645
0.013386
0.017623
0.024920
0.037738
0.059551
0.091173
0.137374
0.177681
1.000000
lx
100000
99140
98796
98566
98327
97825
97015
95982
94697
93029
90710
87287
82089
74605
64356
52921
dx
860
344
230
239
502
810
1033
1285
1669
2318
3423
5198
7484
10249
11435
52921
Lx
99217
395734.0988
493289.8066
492231.8991
490378.8847
487099.054
482492.9196
476698.9493
469314.7861
459347.032
444993.1528
423439.8225
391733.8563
347401.2759
293192.4836
529210.9442
Tx
6775776
6676559
6280825
5787535
5295303
4804924
4317825
3835332
3358633
2889319
2429972
1984978
1561539
1169805
822403
529211
ex
67.75776069
67.34497604
63.57361661
58.7174324
53.85407199
49.11771588
44.50680114
39.95878102
35.46702019
31.05840715
26.78827563
22.74082546
19.02252274
15.68005895
12.77899059
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.011024
0.001440
0.000566
0.000449
0.000672
0.000905
0.001171
0.001541
0.002091
0.002986
0.004255
0.006353
0.009212
0.014607
0.019275
0.075750
qx
0.010915
0.005738
0.002823
0.002244
0.003352
0.004514
0.005839
0.007673
0.010399
0.014820
0.021052
0.031267
0.045021
0.070463
0.091945
1.000000
lx
100000
98909
98341
98063
97843
97515
97075
96508
95768
94772
93367
91402
88544
84558
78599
71372
dx
1091
568
278
220
328
440
567
741
996
1405
1966
2858
3986
5958
7227
71372
Lx
99275
396318.363
493710.293
492534.583
490324.216
486600.587
481791.911
475839.458
468173.09
457615.283
441874.106
417978.153
383032.043
336308.54
281731.479
713724.891
Tx
6916832
6817557
6421239
5927528
5434994
4944670
4458069
3976277
3500438
3032264
2574649
2132775
1714797
1331765
995456
713725
Table 7.35: Life table for the year 2014 of the female population
57
ex
69.1683209
68.9278859
65.2956553
60.4459248
55.5479422
50.7065981
45.9239083
41.2014186
36.5513347
31.9954289
27.5755053
23.3340778
19.3666412
15.7498116
12.6649449
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.011818
0.001580
0.000603
0.000465
0.000692
0.000933
0.001208
0.001598
0.002156
0.003053
0.004324
0.006392
0.009203
0.014613
0.019194
0.076321
qx
0.011692
0.006296
0.003009
0.002323
0.003454
0.004656
0.006021
0.007958
0.010723
0.015152
0.021389
0.031458
0.044981
0.070490
0.091578
1.000000
lx
100000
98831
98209
97913
97686
97348
96895
96311
95545
94521
93088
91097
88232
84263
78323
71150
dx
1169
622
296
227
337
453
583
766
1025
1432
1991
2866
3969
5940
7173
71150
Lx
99273
396350.433
493666.03
492467.102
490254.01
486528.476
481718.837
475780.451
468111.015
457547.587
441808.067
417901.949
382978.951
336355.541
281833.084
711504.873
Tx
6914079
6814806
6418456
5924790
5432323
4942069
4455540
3973822
3498041
3029930
2572382
2130574
1712672
1329693
993338
711505
ex
69.1407935
68.9542982
65.3554001
60.5107634
55.6103082
50.766956
45.9832395
41.2600972
36.6114359
32.0557917
27.6337636
23.3878923
19.4110981
15.7803099
12.6825592
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.012669
0.001734
0.000643
0.000482
0.000713
0.000963
0.001245
0.001657
0.002224
0.003122
0.004394
0.006432
0.009195
0.014619
0.019114
0.076896
qx
0.012525
0.006908
0.003207
0.002405
0.003559
0.004803
0.006208
0.008253
0.011057
0.015490
0.021732
0.031649
0.044942
0.070517
0.091211
1.000000
lx
100000
98748
98065
97751
97516
97169
96702
96102
95309
94255
92795
90778
87905
83955
78034
70917
dx
1252
682
314
235
347
467
600
793
1054
1460
2017
2873
3951
5920
7118
70917
Lx
99271
396390.165
493623.044
492399.2
490183.376
486456.168
481645.74
475722.401
468049.572
457479.657
441741.046
417823.612
382923.288
336399.017
281931.385
709166.771
Tx
6911206
6811934
6415544
5921921
5429522
4939339
4452882
3971237
3495514
3027465
2569985
2128244
1710420
1327497
991098
709167
58
ex
69.1120564
68.9833501
65.4211211
60.5817811
55.6784075
50.8325958
46.0474426
41.3232496
36.6757487
32.1200034
27.6953598
23.44444
19.4575718
15.8121006
12.7008013
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.013582
0.001904
0.000685
0.000499
0.000735
0.000993
0.001284
0.001719
0.002293
0.003193
0.004465
0.006471
0.009187
0.014625
0.019034
0.077475
qx
0.013416
0.007580
0.003418
0.002490
0.003667
0.004954
0.006401
0.008559
0.011401
0.015836
0.022080
0.031842
0.044902
0.070544
0.090847
1.000000
lx
100000
98658
97911
97576
97333
96976
96496
95878
95057
93974
92486
90443
87564
83632
77732
70670
dx
1342
748
335
243
357
480
618
821
1084
1488
2042
2880
3932
5900
7062
70670
Lx
99270
396438.328
493581.451
492330.874
490112.302
486383.654
481572.61
475665.324
467988.745
457411.434
441672.95
417743.04
382864.954
336438.813
282026.232
706703.611
Tx
6908204
6808934
6412496
5918915
5426584
4936471
4450088
3968515
3492850
3024861
2567450
2125777
1708034
1325169
988730
706704
ex
69.0820419
69.0152475
65.4933654
60.6595312
55.7527484
50.9039803
46.1169368
41.3912529
36.7446156
32.1883666
27.7605488
23.5039248
19.5062123
15.8452803
12.7197189
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.014560
0.002089
0.000730
0.000516
0.000757
0.001025
0.001324
0.001783
0.002365
0.003264
0.004538
0.006511
0.009178
0.014630
0.018954
0.078059
qx
0.014370
0.008316
0.003642
0.002578
0.003778
0.005110
0.006599
0.008877
0.011755
0.016190
0.022434
0.032036
0.044863
0.070571
0.090483
1.000000
lx
100000
98563
97743
97387
97136
96769
96275
95640
94791
93676
92160
90092
87206
83294
77416
70411
dx
1437
820
356
251
367
494
635
849
1114
1517
2067
2886
3912
5878
7005
70411
Lx
99269
396495.758
493541.371
492262.119
490040.776
486310.924
481499.434
475609.234
467928.51
457342.848
441603.682
417660.124
382803.844
336474.767
282117.47
704107.966
Tx
6905068
6805799
6409303
5915762
5423500
4933459
4447148
3965648
3490039
3022111
2564768
2123164
1705504
1322700
986225
704108
59
ex
69.0506782
69.0502117
65.5727306
60.7446173
55.8338853
50.9816141
46.1921795
41.4645178
36.8184099
32.2612104
27.8296078
23.5665687
19.5571826
15.8799541
12.7393638
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.009419
0.001048
0.000495
0.000462
0.000841
0.001273
0.001621
0.002052
0.002748
0.003923
0.005847
0.009144
0.013771
0.021285
0.027675
0.080047
qx
0.009339
0.004183
0.002469
0.002309
0.004198
0.006344
0.008072
0.010206
0.013645
0.019423
0.028816
0.044701
0.066561
0.101049
0.129419
1.000000
lx
100000
99066
98652
98408
98181
97769
97148
96364
95381
94079
92252
89593
85589
79892
71819
62524
dx
934
414
244
227
412
620
784
984
1301
1827
2658
4005
5697
8073
9295
62524
Lx
99261
396073.334
493642.158
492552.617
490534.761
487050.804
482335.219
476446.868
468937.058
458672.179
443606.167
420845.634
387308.413
341595.634
286901.134
625240.037
Tx
6851003
6751742
6355669
5862027
5369474
4878939
4391888
3909553
3433106
2964169
2505497
2061891
1641045
1253737
912141
625240
ex
68.5100293
68.1539324
64.4253717
59.5685638
54.6896459
49.9029217
45.2080669
40.5706204
35.9937455
31.5071882
27.1593195
23.0138478
19.1736399
15.6929489
12.7006044
10
Table 7.40: Life table for the year 2014 of the total population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.010227
0.001169
0.000532
0.000481
0.000866
0.001307
0.001657
0.002098
0.002804
0.003971
0.005882
0.009118
0.013621
0.021082
0.027267
0.080313
qx
0.010133
0.004664
0.002657
0.002404
0.004319
0.006514
0.008253
0.010434
0.013924
0.019659
0.028984
0.044575
0.065860
0.100135
0.127632
1.000000
lx
100000
98987
98525
98263
98027
97604
96968
96168
95164
93839
91994
89328
85346
79725
71742
62585
dx
1013
462
262
236
423
636
800
1003
1325
1845
2666
3982
5621
7983
9157
62585
Lx
99259
396093.526
493598.599
492488.994
490468.915
486984.817
482261.038
476372.79
468862.436
458579.104
443496.347
420692.057
387109.275
341464.496
286792.962
625854.627
Tx
6850379
6751120
6355026
5861428
5368939
4878470
4391485
3909224
3432851
2963989
2505410
2061913
1641221
1254112
912648
625855
60
ex
68.5037889
68.2022746
64.5016464
59.6502647
54.7699891
49.9824472
45.2880471
40.6501174
36.0729248
31.5858556
27.2343785
23.0824971
19.2301523
15.7304087
12.7212322
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.011104
0.001304
0.000573
0.000501
0.000890
0.001342
0.001695
0.002145
0.002862
0.004019
0.005917
0.009092
0.013472
0.020882
0.026864
0.080580
qx
0.010993
0.005200
0.002859
0.002502
0.004443
0.006688
0.008438
0.010666
0.014209
0.019897
0.029153
0.044449
0.065166
0.099228
0.125869
1.000000
lx
100000
98901
98386
98105
97860
97425
96773
95957
94933
93584
91722
89048
85090
79545
71652
62633
dx
1099
514
281
246
435
652
817
1024
1349
1862
2674
3958
5545
7893
9019
62633
Lx
99257
396121.586
493556.743
492425.195
490402.674
486918.544
482186.349
476298.295
468787.321
458484.68
443384.508
420536.201
386909.226
341331.174
286684.195
626333.3
Tx
6849617
6750360
6354238
5860682
5368256
4877854
4390935
3908749
3432451
2963663
2505179
2061794
1641258
1254349
913017
626333
ex
68.496174
68.2539038
64.5845201
59.7388232
54.8567335
50.0678738
45.3734613
40.7345261
36.1565029
31.6683969
27.3126667
23.153673
19.2884595
15.7690149
12.7423728
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.012056
0.001455
0.000617
0.000522
0.000916
0.001378
0.001733
0.002193
0.002921
0.004069
0.005952
0.009066
0.013325
0.020683
0.026468
0.080848
qx
0.011925
0.005798
0.003077
0.002605
0.004570
0.006867
0.008627
0.010904
0.014499
0.020138
0.029323
0.044324
0.064479
0.098328
0.124128
1.000000
lx
100000
98807
98235
97932
97677
97231
96563
95730
94686
93313
91434
88753
84819
79350
71548
62667
dx
1193
573
302
255
446
668
833
1044
1373
1879
2681
3934
5469
7802
8881
62667
Lx
99256
396158.455
493516.757
492361.226
490336.019
486851.96
482111.109
476223.33
468711.646
458388.813
443270.536
420377.947
386708.131
341195.485
286574.651
626667.386
Tx
6848710
6749453
6353295
5859778
5367417
4877081
4390229
3908118
3431895
2963183
2504794
2061524
1641146
1254438
913242
626667
61
ex
68.487099
68.3091316
64.6747053
59.8349614
54.9505448
50.1598077
45.4648581
40.8243351
36.244909
31.7551816
27.3944902
23.2276177
19.3487392
15.8088822
12.7640834
10
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
n
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
20
ax
0.09
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
mx
0.013090
0.001622
0.000664
0.000543
0.000942
0.001415
0.001772
0.002242
0.002981
0.004118
0.005987
0.009040
0.013180
0.020485
0.026078
0.081116
qx
0.012936
0.006464
0.003311
0.002712
0.004701
0.007051
0.008820
0.011147
0.014796
0.020382
0.029494
0.044199
0.063799
0.097437
0.122409
1.000000
lx
100000
98706
98068
97744
97479
97020
96336
95487
94422
93025
91129
88441
84532
79139
71428
62685
dx
1294
638
325
265
458
684
850
1064
1397
1896
2688
3909
5393
7711
8743
62685
Lx
99256
396205.172
493478.818
492297.09
490268.928
486785.032
482035.272
476147.839
468635.334
458291.401
443154.309
420217.166
386505.846
341057.229
286464.135
626847.468
Tx
6847647
6748391
6352186
5858707
5366410
4876141
4389356
3907321
3431173
2962538
2504246
2061092
1640875
1254369
913312
626847
62
ex
68.4764713
68.368296
64.7729902
59.9394771
55.0521586
50.2589184
45.5628429
40.9200832
36.3386164
31.8466176
27.4801869
23.3045979
19.4111876
15.850137
12.7864268
10
APPENDIX F
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.000287
0.000183
0.000151
0.000155
0.000226
0.000288
0.000328
0.00037
0.000426
0.00051
0.000633
0.000802
0.001007
0.001263
0.001512
0
Confidence
0.00776
0.00296
0.001967
0.002082
0.004615
0.007639
0.009935
0.012593
0.01671
0.023879
0.036509
0.05816
0.089765
0.135708
0.176208
1
Interval for qx
0.008886
0.003676
0.00256
0.002691
0.005501
0.008769
0.011222
0.014043
0.018382
0.02588
0.038989
0.061303
0.093713
0.140661
0.182136
1
px
0.991677
0.996682
0.997737
0.997614
0.994942
0.991796
0.989421
0.986682
0.982454
0.975121
0.962251
0.940268
0.908261
0.861816
0.820828
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000000
G(x)
458114378.23
428606513.01
374575147.30
311477191.93
259259381.40
212521066.87
171096805.01
134572206.60
102805274.15
75755080.04
53399198.53
35659349.79
22327807.56
12905146.96
6769303.17
0.00
SE (ex)
0.214036
0.300278
0.359320
0.402152
0.435072
0.461951
0.484870
0.504717
0.522597
0.540082
0.559679
0.585637
0.625491
0.690350
0.802063
0.977139

67.354637
68.193658
66.753655
67.930743
62.856775
64.265310
57.912470
59.488905
52.982370
54.687853
48.190652
50.001500
43.531176
45.431865
38.941142
40.919631
34.411318
36.459900
29.965270
32.082392
25.654613
27.848554
21.555123
23.850822
17.760435
20.212361
14.298522
17.004696
11.188307
14.332394
8.084808
11.915192
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.000289
0.000184
0.000152
0.000156
0.000227
0.000289
0.000329
0.00037
0.000427
0.000511
0.000633
0.000802
0.001006
0.001262
0.00151
0
Confidence
0.007849
0.003006
0.001988
0.002094
0.00463
0.007662
0.009957
0.012615
0.016735
0.023892
0.036506
0.058101
0.089578
0.135439
0.175713
1
Interval for qx
0.008981
0.003727
0.002583
0.002704
0.005518
0.008794
0.011245
0.014066
0.018408
0.025894
0.038985
0.061243
0.093522
0.140388
0.181634
1
px
0.991585
0.996634
0.997715
0.997601
0.994926
0.991772
0.989399
0.986659
0.982428
0.975107
0.962254
0.940328
0.908450
0.862086
0.821326
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000000
G(x)
458042646.59
428579846.33
374573538.13
311488301.13
259277638.97
212545965.76
171128368.72
134608067.81
102843674.62
75794479.21
53436940.95
35693273.76
22355222.28
12923444.04
6779467.20
0.00
SE (ex)
0.558380
0.600576
0.633629
0.659824
0.681368
0.700859
0.719412
0.737090
0.754684
0.773856
0.797687
0.831794
0.886450
0.976972
1.133988
1.380679

66.674422
68.863274
66.166089
68.520348
62.323367
64.807194
57.413047
59.999558
52.505979
55.176942
47.729632
50.476999
43.079922
45.900018
38.495176
41.384567
33.966917
36.925279
29.518616
32.552130
25.200365
28.327298
21.085291
24.345925
17.261016
20.735901
13.746244
17.575975
10.543964
14.989196
7.293870
12.706130
population
63
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00029
0.000185
0.000153
0.000156
0.000227
0.000289
0.000329
0.000371
0.000427
0.000511
0.000633
0.000801
0.001006
0.001261
0.001509
0
Confidence
0.007939
0.003052
0.002009
0.002106
0.004646
0.007686
0.009978
0.012637
0.01676
0.023905
0.036502
0.058041
0.089391
0.135171
0.17522
1
Interval for qx
0.009078
0.003779
0.002607
0.002718
0.005536
0.00882
0.011268
0.01409
0.018434
0.025908
0.038982
0.061182
0.093332
0.140116
0.181133
1
px
0.991491
0.996584
0.997692
0.997588
0.994909
0.991747
0.989377
0.986637
0.982403
0.975094
0.962258
0.940388
0.908638
0.862357
0.821823
0.000000
Var(px )
9.5975E-08
4.20052E-08
2.97254E-08
3.09862E-08
6.08689E-08
9.54822E-08
1.21785E-07
1.52557E-07
2.00117E-07
2.82101E-07
4.26427E-07
6.75176E-07
1.05283E-06
1.64391E-06
2.34365E-06
0
G(x)
4471120.172
1797076.29
1105276.515
956138.6259
1568100.237
2019095.45
2066362.119
2025817.129
2020682.219
2093712.269
2234591.878
2381670.044
2343559.254
2134395.335
1515817.497
0
SE (ex)
0.055438
0.051687
0.050058
0.049027
0.048129
0.046652
0.044703
0.04263
0.04051
0.038302
0.035898
0.033145
0.029817
0.025608
0.019136
0
Confidence
67.65473
67.24284
63.47136
58.61579
53.75345
49.01909
44.41078
39.86578
35.37717
30.97183
26.7057
22.66326
18.95206
15.6204
12.73529
10
Interval for ex
67.87204
67.44545
63.66758
58.80798
53.94211
49.20197
44.58601
40.03289
35.53597
31.12197
26.84642
22.79319
19.06894
15.72079
12.8103
10
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.000292
0.000187
0.000153
0.000157
0.000227
0.00029
0.000329
0.000371
0.000428
0.000511
0.000633
0.000801
0.001005
0.00126
0.001507
0
Confidence
0.008031
0.0031
0.00203
0.002118
0.004662
0.007709
0.009999
0.012659
0.016785
0.023918
0.036498
0.057981
0.089204
0.134903
0.174727
1
Interval for qx
0.009176
0.003831
0.002631
0.002732
0.005553
0.008845
0.011291
0.014113
0.018461
0.025922
0.038979
0.061121
0.093143
0.139844
0.180634
1
px
0.991397
0.996534
0.997670
0.997575
0.994892
0.991723
0.989355
0.986614
0.982377
0.975080
0.962262
0.940449
0.908827
0.862626
0.822319
0.000000
Var(px )
9.69638E-08
4.25628E-08
2.99863E-08
3.11387E-08
6.10627E-08
9.57641E-08
1.2205E-07
1.5284E-07
2.00444E-07
2.82332E-07
4.26525E-07
6.74768E-07
1.05119E-06
1.64133E-06
2.33802E-06
0
G(x)
4517294.143
1820816.352
1114855.75
960735.4761
1572962.737
2024980.103
2070857.216
2029698.224
2024286.13
2095943.483
2235962.98
2381441.961
2341220.496
2132631.891
1513021.196
0
SE (ex)
0.021254
0.025394
0.027633
0.029428
0.032139
0.035429
0.038681
0.04182
0.044972
0.048351
0.052255
0.05711
0.063523
0.072584
0.086287
0.104931
Confidence
67.7161
67.2952
63.51946
58.65975
53.79108
49.04828
44.43099
39.87681
35.37888
30.96364
26.68586
22.62889
18.89802
15.53779
12.60987
9.794335
Interval for ex
67.79942
67.39475
63.62778
58.77511
53.91707
49.18716
44.58262
40.04075
35.55516
31.15318
26.8907
22.85276
19.14703
15.82232
12.94811
10.20567
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00032856
0.00024017
0.0001692
0.00015109
0.00018479
0.00021467
0.00024455
0.00028089
0.00032781
0.00039251
0.00046981
0.00057566
0.00069683
0.00088011
0.00103065
0

0.01027055
0.01155852
0.00526757
0.00620905
0.00249175
0.00315502
0.00194759
0.00253988
0.00299
0.00371436
0.00409329
0.00493478
0.00536014
0.00631876
0.00712286
0.00822395
0.00975668
0.01104168
0.01405101
0.01558964
0.02013069
0.02197236
0.03013896
0.03239557
0.04365525
0.04638681
0.0687379
0.07218794
0.08992542
0.09396557
1
1
px
0.989085
0.994262
0.997177
0.997756
0.996648
0.995486
0.994161
0.992327
0.989601
0.985180
0.978948
0.968733
0.954979
0.929537
0.908055
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000000
G(x)
477144372.68
448081304.91
393628163.33
328949472.34
275134787.27
226601489.47
183236531.28
144925728.91
111599510.42
83202407.81
59717302.51
41013471.48
26894457.21
16802245.20
10126579.73
0.00
SE (ex)
0.531701
0.490108
0.443457
0.396026
0.350972
0.308347
0.268134
0.230368
0.195171
0.162700
0.133151
0.106545
0.082857
0.061370
0.040487
0.000000

68.126187
70.210455
67.967273
69.888498
64.426479
66.164831
59.669714
61.222135
54.860037
56.235848
50.102237
51.310959
45.398365
46.449452
40.749897
41.652941
36.168800
36.933870
31.676537
32.314321
27.314529
27.836482
23.125249
23.542906
19.204242
19.529040
15.629526
15.870097
12.585591
12.744299
10.000000
10.000000
Table 7.49: Statistical Inference of forecasted rates for the year 2014 of the female
population
64
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00033994
0.00025161
0.00017478
0.00015385
0.00018771
0.00021819
0.00024852
0.00028631
0.0003332
0.00039733
0.00047419
0.00057832
0.00069777
0.0008818
0.00103061
0

0.01102602
0.01235857
0.00580314
0.00678945
0.00266644
0.00335156
0.00202149
0.00262459
0.00308598
0.00382181
0.00422847
0.00508377
0.0055337
0.00650791
0.00739691
0.00851922
0.01006982
0.01137598
0.01437278
0.01593031
0.02045954
0.02231836
0.0303242
0.03259122
0.04361382
0.04634907
0.06876155
0.07221823
0.08955779
0.09359778
1
1
px
0.988308
0.993704
0.996991
0.997677
0.996546
0.995344
0.993979
0.992042
0.989277
0.984848
0.978611
0.968542
0.955019
0.929510
0.908422
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000011
0.000000
G(x)
476754677.05
448016311.20
393755132.74
329099007.09
275258551.44
226702980.47
183320890.92
144992551.87
111656945.78
83247588.71
59746039.52
41027124.83
26891494.32
16781632.88
10099169.23
0.00
SE (ex)
0.218347
0.307698
0.369739
0.414561
0.448897
0.476266
0.498480
0.516849
0.532604
0.546962
0.561550
0.578115
0.599779
0.629907
0.678890
0.747329

68.712833
69.568754
68.351210
69.557387
64.630712
66.080089
59.698223
61.323304
54.730471
56.490145
49.833474
51.700438
45.006218
46.960261
40.247073
42.273121
35.567532
37.655340
30.983745
33.127838
26.533125
28.734402
22.254786
24.520999
18.235531
20.586665
14.545691
17.014929
11.351934
14.013184
8.535235
11.464765
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00035168
0.00026358
0.00018054
0.00015667
0.00019069
0.00022179
0.00025258
0.00029184
0.00033871
0.00040224
0.00047865
0.00058104
0.00069877
0.00088358
0.00103066
0

0.01183555
0.01321414
0.00639169
0.00742494
0.00285294
0.00356067
0.00209806
0.00271221
0.00318494
0.00393245
0.00436797
0.00523737
0.00571272
0.00670284
0.00768123
0.00882525
0.01039277
0.01172053
0.01470173
0.01627851
0.02079357
0.02266986
0.03051046
0.03278814
0.04357231
0.04631148
0.06878506
0.07224869
0.0891914
0.09323156
1
1
px
0.987475
0.993092
0.996793
0.997595
0.996441
0.995197
0.993792
0.991747
0.988943
0.984510
0.978268
0.968351
0.955058
0.929483
0.908789
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000011
0.000000
G(x)
476347698.23
447955423.87
393904582.24
329270375.33
275399838.58
226818062.50
183415511.63
145066622.65
111719541.30
83295990.24
59776178.00
41040773.46
26887483.83
16759460.02
10070040.94
0.00
SE (ex)
0.574778
0.620276
0.656562
0.684333
0.706777
0.726038
0.742863
0.757937
0.772249
0.786863
0.803575
0.824452
0.853439
0.894928
0.963682
1.060403

67.985491
70.238621
67.767609
70.199092
64.134259
66.707983
59.240488
61.923074
54.293124
57.063690
49.409561
52.255630
44.591432
47.503453
39.837693
42.808806
35.162141
38.189356
30.577751
33.662255
26.120353
29.270366
21.828515
25.060365
17.784832
21.130312
14.058041
17.566160
10.811985
14.589618
7.921610
12.078390
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00036381
0.00027612
0.00018651
0.00015955
0.00019374
0.00022545
0.00025672
0.0002975
0.00034434
0.00040725
0.00048319
0.00058383
0.00069984
0.00088544
0.0010308
0

0.01270287
0.01412901
0.00703835
0.00812075
0.00305202
0.00378314
0.00217741
0.00280285
0.00328695
0.00404639
0.00451192
0.00539571
0.00589737
0.00690371
0.00797621
0.00914243
0.01072582
0.01207562
0.01503799
0.01663439
0.02113288
0.02302696
0.03069773
0.03298634
0.0435307
0.04627406
0.0688084
0.07227932
0.08882621
0.09286693
1
1
px
0.986584
0.992420
0.996582
0.997510
0.996333
0.995046
0.993599
0.991441
0.988599
0.984164
0.977920
0.968158
0.955098
0.929456
0.909153
0.000000
Var(px )
1.467E-07
8.7473E-08
4.261E-08
3.2241E-08
4.5692E-08
6.0276E-08
7.6636E-08
1.0092E-07
1.3293E-07
1.8284E-07
2.5368E-07
3.6536E-07
5.194E-07
8.2151E-07
1.1079E-06
0
G(x)
7172830.51
3924610.86
1655376.17
1041679.16
1234555.64
1339822.35
1374688.11
1428810.99
1445320.79
1478557.17
1467270.26
1447330.86
1340298.79
1330977.28
1045935.24
0
SE (ex)
0.053599
0.047059
0.042885
0.040962
0.039703
0.038166
0.036432
0.034568
0.03252
0.030305
0.027845
0.025127
0.022018
0.018435
0.013157
0
Confidence
68.97699
68.92301
65.40931
60.57925
55.67493
50.82917
46.04553
41.3235
36.68088
32.12897
27.70597
23.45468
19.46306
15.80915
12.69393
10
Interval for ex
69.1871
69.10748
65.57742
60.73982
55.83057
50.97879
46.18834
41.45901
36.80835
32.24776
27.81512
23.55317
19.54937
15.88141
12.74551
10
population
65
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00037634
0.00028925
0.00019268
0.00016249
0.00019684
0.0002292
0.00026095
0.0003033
0.00035008
0.00041235
0.00048781
0.00058668
0.00070098
0.00088739
0.00103104
0

0.01363197
0.01510722
0.00774874
0.00888262
0.00326452
0.00401984
0.00225963
0.00289661
0.00339211
0.00416372
0.00466048
0.00555894
0.00608781
0.00711073
0.00828223
0.00947117
0.01106928
0.0124416
0.01538173
0.01699813
0.02147753
0.02338975
0.03088602
0.03318583
0.04348899
0.04623681
0.06883158
0.07231015
0.08846221
0.09250388
1
1
px
0.985630
0.991684
0.996358
0.997422
0.996222
0.994890
0.993401
0.991123
0.988245
0.983810
0.977566
0.967964
0.955137
0.929429
0.909517
0.000000
Var(px )
1.5643E-07
9.541E-08
4.5208E-08
3.3321E-08
4.7045E-08
6.2148E-08
7.9017E-08
1.0466E-07
1.3719E-07
1.8728E-07
2.5842E-07
3.6891E-07
5.2117E-07
8.2521E-07
1.1086E-06
0
G(x)
7656242.48
4282454.65
1755018.91
1075380.67
1269668.01
1379824.25
1415632.89
1479966.77
1489468.65
1511732.59
1491356.47
1456794.58
1338949.84
1329602.25
1038116.19
0
SE (ex)
0.02767
0.035056
0.037859
0.039462
0.041229
0.043129
0.045078
0.047126
0.049261
0.051546
0.054044
0.056884
0.060246
0.064577
0.070716
0.077751
Confidence
68.99645
68.9815
65.49853
60.66727
55.75308
50.89708
46.10383
41.37215
36.72186
32.16018
27.72368
23.45508
19.4391
15.75338
12.60076
9.847608
Interval for ex
69.10491
69.11892
65.64693
60.82196
55.91469
51.06615
46.28053
41.55689
36.91496
32.36224
27.93553
23.67806
19.67526
16.00652
12.87797
10.15239
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00030417
0.00020506
0.00015801
0.00015301
0.00020636
0.00025393
0.00028709
0.00032378
0.00037564
0.00044994
0.00055078
0.00069038
0.00085201
0.00106631
0.00125252
0

0.00874315
0.00993551
0.0037814
0.00458524
0.00215946
0.00277886
0.00200929
0.00260908
0.00379398
0.0046029
0.00584661
0.006842
0.00750938
0.00863477
0.00957159
0.01084079
0.01290899
0.01438151
0.01854121
0.02030497
0.02773667
0.02989574
0.04334737
0.04605365
0.06489129
0.06823117
0.09895938
0.10313931
0.12696421
0.13187409
1
1
px
0.990661
0.995817
0.997531
0.997691
0.995802
0.993656
0.991928
0.989794
0.986355
0.980577
0.971184
0.955299
0.933439
0.898951
0.870581
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000011
0.000000
G(x)
468114880.38
438698832.84
384299089.41
320374111.72
267351875.03
219712577.00
177320048.37
139889551.85
107316853.90
79575437.40
56640853.00
38407782.62
24682767.29
14917472.19
8505031.33
0.00
SE (ex)
0.524005
0.481751
0.434696
0.387575
0.343037
0.301163
0.261880
0.224959
0.190470
0.158634
0.129696
0.103816
0.081036
0.060578
0.040607
0.000000

67.482981
69.537078
67.209700
69.098164
63.573367
65.277376
58.808918
60.328210
54.017293
55.361999
49.312641
50.493202
44.694782
45.721352
40.129700
41.011540
35.620424
36.367067
31.196266
31.818110
26.905115
27.413524
22.810368
23.217327
19.014809
19.332471
15.574216
15.811682
12.621015
12.780194
10.000000
10.000000
Table 7.54: Statistical Inference of forecasted rates for the year 2014 of the total
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.0003167
0.00021656
0.000164
0.00015622
0.00020944
0.0002575
0.00029053
0.00032766
0.00037984
0.00045318
0.00055311
0.00069048
0.00084903
0.00106312
0.00124579
0

0.00951199
0.01075346
0.0042398
0.00508873
0.00233569
0.00297858
0.00209768
0.00271006
0.00390827
0.00472929
0.00600941
0.0070188
0.00768346
0.00882234
0.00979153
0.01107597
0.01317974
0.01466872
0.01877029
0.02054677
0.02790001
0.0300682
0.04322123
0.04592789
0.06419602
0.06752424
0.09805082
0.10221825
0.12519064
0.13007412
1
1
px
0.989867
0.995336
0.997343
0.997596
0.995681
0.993486
0.991747
0.989566
0.986076
0.980341
0.971016
0.955425
0.934140
0.899865
0.872368
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000011
0.000000
G(x)
468019887.77
438924445.57
384663833.37
320741208.18
267679176.51
220002742.49
177579842.03
140114683.39
107508452.10
79736359.29
56767509.46
38504082.39
24751473.94
14957228.85
8530864.25
0.00
SE (ex)
0.216338
0.304238
0.364770
0.408638
0.442320
0.469512
0.492166
0.511299
0.528053
0.543898
0.560817
0.581720
0.611643
0.656561
0.730756
0.837670

68.079767
68.927811
67.605968
68.798581
63.786698
65.216595
58.849335
60.451195
53.903042
55.636936
49.062204
50.902691
44.323401
46.252693
39.647972
41.652263
35.037942
37.107908
30.519815
32.651896
26.135177
28.333580
21.942327
24.222668
18.031331
20.428973
14.443549
17.017268
11.288950
14.153514
8.358167
11.641833
population
66
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00032973
0.00022871
0.00017023
0.00015951
0.00021259
0.00026114
0.00029403
0.00033162
0.00038412
0.00045648
0.00055549
0.00069063
0.00084613
0.00106003
0.00123918
0

0.01034657
0.0116391
0.00475207
0.00564861
0.00252574
0.00319306
0.00218979
0.00281508
0.00402589
0.00485925
0.0061766
0.00720027
0.00786145
0.00901406
0.01001639
0.01131634
0.01345601
0.01496175
0.01900209
0.02079151
0.0280642
0.03024174
0.04309532
0.04580259
0.06350774
0.06682459
0.09714992
0.10130523
0.12343984
0.1282974
1
1
px
0.989007
0.994800
0.997141
0.997498
0.995557
0.993312
0.991562
0.989334
0.985791
0.980103
0.970847
0.955551
0.934834
0.900772
0.874131
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000011
0.000000
G(x)
467905200.51
439156786.88
385053084.19
321132289.76
268025904.57
220308002.01
177851073.90
140347854.32
107705254.06
79900233.14
56895158.64
38599904.08
24818663.65
14995088.54
8554649.86
0.00
SE (ex)
0.567132
0.611331
0.646082
0.673190
0.695306
0.714832
0.732721
0.749199
0.765126
0.782010
0.802112
0.829139
0.869680
0.931577
1.035004
1.184037

67.384595
69.607753
67.055695
69.452113
63.318199
65.850841
58.419370
61.058276
53.493935
56.219532
48.666803
51.468945
43.937328
46.809595
39.266096
42.202956
34.656855
37.656151
30.135658
33.201136
25.740528
28.884806
21.528561
24.778785
17.583886
20.993033
13.943123
17.594907
10.713765
14.770980
7.679288
12.320712
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00032973
0.00022871
0.00017023
0.00015951
0.00021259
0.00026114
0.00029403
0.00033162
0.00038412
0.00045648
0.00055549
0.00069063
0.00084613
0.00106003
0.00123918
0

0.01034657
0.0116391
0.00475207
0.00564861
0.00252574
0.00319306
0.00218979
0.00281508
0.00402589
0.00485925
0.0061766
0.00720027
0.00786145
0.00901406
0.01001639
0.01131634
0.01345601
0.01496175
0.01900209
0.02079151
0.0280642
0.03024174
0.04309532
0.04580259
0.06350774
0.06682459
0.09714992
0.10130523
0.12343984
0.1282974
1
1
px
0.989007
0.994800
0.997141
0.997498
0.995557
0.993312
0.991562
0.989334
0.985791
0.980103
0.970847
0.955551
0.934834
0.900772
0.874131
0.000000
Var(px )
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000010
0.000011
0.000000
G(x)
467905200.51
439156786.88
385053084.19
321132289.76
268025904.57
220308002.01
177851073.90
140347854.32
107705254.06
79900233.14
56895158.64
38599904.08
24818663.65
14995088.54
8554649.86
0.00
SE (ex)
0.567132
0.611331
0.646082
0.673190
0.695306
0.714832
0.732721
0.749199
0.765126
0.782010
0.802112
0.829139
0.869680
0.931577
1.035004
1.184037

67.384595
69.607753
67.055695
69.452113
63.318199
65.850841
58.419370
61.058276
53.493935
56.219532
48.666803
51.468945
43.937328
46.809595
39.266096
42.202956
34.656855
37.656151
30.135658
33.201136
25.740528
28.884806
21.528561
24.778785
17.583886
20.993033
13.943123
17.594907
10.713765
14.770980
7.679288
12.320712
population
Age
0 to 1
1 to 4
5 to 9
10 to 14
15 to 19
20 to 24
25 to 29
30 to 34
35 to 39
40 to 44
45 to 49
50 to 54
55 to 59
60 to 64
65 to 69
70 up
SE (qx )
0.00035733
0.00025507
0.00018345
0.00016634
0.00021908
0.00026863
0.00030124
0.00033976
0.00039291
0.00046329
0.00056045
0.00069113
0.00084058
0.00105416
0.00122636
0

0.01223525
0.01363597
0.0059637
0.00696357
0.00295164
0.00367075
0.00238581
0.00303787
0.00427146
0.00513027
0.00652464
0.00757769
0.0082295
0.00941036
0.01048123
0.01181311
0.01402551
0.01556571
0.0194739
0.02128999
0.02839514
0.03059209
0.04284417
0.04555341
0.06215183
0.06544692
0.09537082
0.09950311
0.12000546
0.12481279
1
1
px
0.987064
0.993536
0.996689
0.997288
0.995299
0.992949
0.991180
0.988853
0.985204
0.979618
0.970506
0.955801
0.936201
0.902563
0.877591
0.000000
Var(px )
1.4178E-07
7.5476E-08
4.1343E-08
3.4711E-08
5.7143E-08
8.33E-08
1.0324E-07
1.2956E-07
1.7073E-07
2.3397E-07
3.3755E-07
5.0667E-07
7.4224E-07
1.1562E-06
1.5593E-06
0
G(x)
6804823
3318083
1575080
1098410
1511368
1811303
1806394
1781857
1795701
1819820
1866588
1902701
1785944
1692139
1243069
0
SE (ex)
0.026086
0.032233
0.034876
0.036598
0.038804
0.041382
0.043949
0.046491
0.049111
0.051915
0.055075
0.058853
0.063571
0.069865
0.078965
0.089979
Confidence
68.42534
68.30512
64.70463
59.86775
54.9761
50.17781
45.4767
40.82896
36.24236
31.74486
27.37224
23.18925
19.28659
15.7132
12.63166
9.823641
Interval for ex
68.5276
68.43147
64.84135
60.01121
55.12821
50.34003
45.64898
41.01121
36.43487
31.94837
27.58813
23.41995
19.53579
15.98707
12.9412
10.17636
population
67
APPENDIX G
Syntax in finding the first estimation of k using the STATA Software
generate logm = log(Male)
drop Male
quietly reshape wide logm, i(Age) j(Year)
egen a = rowmean(logm1960-logm2009)
list Age a
mata a = st_data(1::16, "a")
mata Y = st_data(1::16, 2..51)
mata Y = Y:-a
mata U = s = Vt = J(0,0,.)
mata fullsvd(Y,U,s,Vt)
mata b = Vt[1,]/sum(Vt[1,])
mata k = U[,1]*sum(Vt[1,])*s[1]
mata st_store(1::16, st_addvar("float","b"), b)
set obs 50
mata st_store(., st_addvar("float","k"), k)
generate logm = log(Female)
drop Female
list Age a
mata Y = st_data(1::16, 2..51)
mata Y = Y:-a
mata U = s = Vt = J(0,0,.)
mata k = U[,1]*sum(Vt[1,])*s[1]
set obs 50
generate logm = log(Total)

drop Total
list Age a
68

mata Y = st_data(1::16, 2..51)
mata Y = Y:-a
mata U = s = Vt = J(0,0,.)
mata k = U[,1]*sum(Vt[1,])*s[1]
set obs 50
69

Forecasting Mortality Rates Using The Lee-Carter Model

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Forecasting Mortality Rates Using The Lee-Carter Model

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FORECASTING PHILIPPINE MORTALITY

RATES USING THE LEE-CARTER MODEL

CIOLO MIGUEL C. CALMA

A Special Problem Presented to the

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

B.S. Applied Mathematics

The Faculty of the Mathematics Division

FORECASTING PHILIPPINE MORTALITY RATES

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

Prof. Jonathan B. Mamplata

Prof. Jonathan B. Mamplata

FORECASTING PHILIPPINE MORTALITY RATES USING THE

Ciolo Miguel C. Calma

Ciolo Miguel Cases Calma

Background of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Statement of the Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Significance of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Objective of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Age-Specific Death Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Lee-Carter Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Singular Value Decomposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Second Estimation of the parameter k

Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing Method (LES) . . . . . . . . .

The Construction of a Life Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Statistical Inference on Life Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3 Solving for the Parameters of the Lee-Carter Model

Solving for the parameters of the Lee-Carter model . . . . . . . . . .

Estimation of the k parameter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4 Holts Linear Exponential Smoothing Method (LES)

Forecasting mortality rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Computing new age-specific death rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Constructing the life table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Standard error and confidence intervals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6 Summary and Conclusions

Natural logarithm of death rates for male from 1960-1970 . . . . . . .

Parameter ax for male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

the diagonal matrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The parameter bx for the male population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The ax and bx parameters fore male, female and total population in

The forecasted parameter k for male, female and total population in

The new age-specific death rates of male for 2014 up to 2018 . . . . .

The age-specific male population from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . . .

The age-specific male population from 1976 - 1990 . . . . . . . . . . .

The age-specific male deaths from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The age-specific male deaths from 1976 - 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The age-specific male deaths from 1991 - 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The age-specific male deaths from 2006 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The age-specific female deaths from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . .

The age-specific female deaths from 1976 - 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . .

The age-specific female deaths from 1991 - 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.10 The age-specific female deaths from 2006 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.11 The age-specific total deaths from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.12 The age-specific total deaths from 1976 - 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.13 The age-specific total deaths from 1991 - 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.14 The age-specific total deaths from 2006 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.15 The age-specific male death rates from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . . .

7.16 The age-specific male death rates from 1976 - 1990 . . . . . . . . . .

7.17 The age-specific death rates from 1991 - 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.18 The age-specific death rates from 2006 - 2009 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7.19 The age-specific female death rates from 1960 - 1975 . . . . . . . . .

7.20 The age-specific female death rates from 1976 - 1990 . . . . . . . . .

7.21 The age-specific female death rates from 1991 - 2005 . . . . . . . . .

7.22 The age-specific female death rates from 2006 - 2009 . . . . . . . . .

mx,t = eax +bx kt +x,t ,

fx,t = ln(mx,t ) = ax + bx kt + x,t ,