Donald Ballanti

Certified Consulting Meteorologist

1424 Scott Street

El Cerrito, CA 94530
(510) 234-6087
Fax: (510) 232-7752

AIR QUALITY IMPACT OF RECREATIONAL RAIL SERVICE

SANTA CRUZ-APTOS RECREATIONAL RAIL PROJECT

Prepared for:

Public Affairs Management

135 Main Street, Suite 1600
San Francisco, CA. 94105

January 2005

Air Pollution Meteorology ● Dispersion Modeling ●Climatological Analysis

LOCOMOTIVE EMISSIONS

It is the nature of locomotives that emission factors are expressed in grams per brake-
horsepower-hour or grams per gallon of fuel consumed. Because both horsepower
generated and rate of fuel consumption varies so much with the throttle setting rather
than with speed, estimating emissions requires an assumption regarding the load factor
or operating capacity. The 60% assumption was intended as a conservative estimate of
the power requirement for operating the train at an average speed of 15 miles per hour.
This is considered conservative (overpredictive), as the typical assumed load factor for
a line haul locomotive is 40%.1

Emissions were estimate assuming a diesel rail car powered by two 225 horsepower
diesel engines operating at 60 percent capacity with a 48-horsepower Auxiliary Power
Unit (APU) operating at 100% capacity. Diesel locomotive emission factors were used
to provide a worst-case analysis. Under the Original Project, the train would operate 9
hours on a given day, resulting in 2862 brake horsepower-hours per day. Under the
Business Plan Alternative, the train would operate approximately six hours on a given
day, resulting in 1908 brake horse-hours per day. EPA emission factors2 in grams per
horsepower-hour were multiplied by this amount to estimate daily emissions. Emissions
are shown in Table 1, where the Business Plan Alternative emissions are italicized.

The result is a maximum daily emission, expected to occur on only 120 days per year
under the Original Project and 48 days per year under the Business Plan Alternative.

Table 1 – Maximum Daily Emissions (Pounds per Day)

Reactive Organic Nitrogen Oxides Particulate Matter
Gases (ROG) (NOx) (PM10)
MBUAPCD
137.0 lbs/day 137.0 lbs/day 82.0 lbs/day
Threshold of Significance
Tier 0 Rec. Train 3.1 lbs/day 54.3 lbs/day 2.0 lbs/day
Locomotive
(2.0 lbs/day) (36.1 lbs/day) (1.3 lbs/day)
(Model Year 1973-2001)
Tier 1 Rec. Train Locomotive 3.0 lbs/day 42.3 lbs/day 2.0 lbs/day
(Model Year 2002-2004)
(2.0 lbs/day) (28.2 lbs/day) (1.3 lbs/day)
Tier 2 Rec. Train Locomotive 1.7 lbs/day 31.6 lbs/day 1.1 lbs/day
(Model Year after 2004)
(1.1 lbs/day) (21.0 lbs/day) (0.7 lbs/day)

1
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors Volume II: Mobile
Sources, Fourth Edition, September 1985.
2
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Emission Factors for Locomotives, EPA420-F-97-051,
December 1997.
HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

After discussions with David Craft of the Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control
District (MBUAPCD), a screening health risk assessment was conducted for the new
train service. Exposure to diesel exhaust was determined to be a maximum near
proposed train stations due to the stationary idling that would occur at these locations.
The analysis was performed according to MBUAPCD’s CEQA Air Quality Guidelines
Appendix C.3

The analysis used the very conservative SCREEN-3 program to estimate maximum
annual and maximum hourly concentrations of diesel particulate and acrolein (a
component of diesel exhaust) at locations very close to the station platforms where
idling of the train would occur. The predicted concentrations were compared to the
MBUAPCD’s thresholds of significance for toxic air contaminants.

1. Emissions Estimates

Under the Original Project the proposed train would make 9 daily round trips or 18 stops
at each station. Under the Business Plan Alternative the proposed train would make 4
daily round trips or 8 daily stops at each station. Assuming a two-minute
loading/unloading time, train operation would result in 36 minutes of idling for the
Original Project and 16 minutes of idling daily for the Business Plan Alternative, with 4
minutes maximum hourly idling at any station platform. Following the recommendations
of the MBUAPCD’s diesel health risk assessment guidelines, annual emission of diesel
particulate matter (DPM) and peak-hour emissions of acrolein were estimated.

The proposed BUDD RDC units are typically powered by two six-cylinder diesel
engines. Engines are similar to those used to power diesel buses, but there are two
main and one auxiliary engine rather than one engine per vehicle. An emissions factor
of 2.52 grams per minute was utilized, representing emissions from an “uncontrolled”
diesel bus engine prior to development of emission standards for this type of engine.4
The annual emission at a platform is calculated below for the Business Plan Project
Alternative:

E = (2.52grams/hour)*(16minutes/60 minutes)*(48 days/year)*(3 engines) = 96.8 grams.

Converting to an annual average yields an emission factor of 0.00000307 grams per

second.

3
Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District, Diesel Health Risk Assessment Guidance for
Analyzing Health Risks near Truck Stops, Warehouse/Distribution Center, Transit Center, Train Idling for
CEQA Air Quality Analysis Requirements, October 2003.
4
California Air Resources Board, Risk Reduction Plan to Reduce Particulate Matter Emissions from
Diesel-Fueled Engines and Vehicles, October 2000.
The acrolein emission factor was assumed to be 0.012 grams per hour (per engine).1

The maximum hourly emission rate is calculated below:

E = (0.012 grams/hour)*(4 minutes/60 minutes)*(3 engines) = 0.0024 gram

Converting to grams per second provides the maximum emission rate of 0.0000006
grams per second.

The annual emission at a platform is calculated below for the Original Project:

E = (2.52grams/hour)*(36minutes/60 minutes)*(120 days/year)*(3 engines) = 544.32

grams.

Since concentration is proportional to annual emission, the model results for the
Business Plan Alternative were multiplied by the ratio of emissions (544.32/96.8 =
5.625) to get the maximum annual concentration for the Original Project. Maximum
hourly acrolein emissions for the Original Project are identical to those for the Business
Plan Alternative.

2. Modeling

To estimate the excess cancer risk associated with project diesel exhaust an annual
averaged concentration is needed. This calculation was accomplished using the
EPA-approved SCREEN-3 computer model.5 This model provides conservative
estimates of concentration considering site and source geometry, source strength,
distance to the receptor and building wake effects on plume dispersion. The SCREEN-3
model was developed to provide an easy-to-use method of obtaining pollutant
concentration estimates where upper-bound estimates are required or where
meteorological data is unavailable. A screening-level analysis is purposely conservative.
It is a useful tool in proving that an impact is not significant, i.e., if a screening-level
analysis demonstrates an impact is not significant, its conservative nature provides
confidence in this conclusion. Screening-level modeling is less useful in concluding that
an impact is significant. When a screening-level analysis indicates a significant impact,
this conclusion normally points to the need for a more sophisticated, and less
conservative, method of analysis such as the ISCST model.

To estimate concentrations near the station platforms, the emissions from the train were
modeled as a single point source. Stack height and dimensions were based on a
typical BUDD RDC car. Exhaust temperature and exit velocity were taken from

5
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, SCREEN3 Model User's Guide, Report EPA-454/b-95-004,
September 1995.
MBUAPCD guidance.6 The SCREEN-3 was run with both urban and rural dispersion
coefficients, and the urban coefficients were ultimately chosen for the analysis because
they resulted in the highest concentration. The program was used to identify the
highest concentration for any location between 5 and 200 meters from source.

The SCREEN-3 model utilizes 49 different combinations of wind speed and atmospheric
stability to make the dispersion calculations and then reports the maximum. The
short-term concentration estimated by SCREEN-3 was used to calculate the acute
hazard index. To calculate the cancer risk and chronic hazard index, an estimate of
annual-averaged concentrations is needed. This was obtained by multiplying the
annual maximum 1-hour concentrations generated by SCREEN-3 by 0.08 as
recommended by EPA guidance.7

3. Screening Health Risk Assessment

Diesel Particulate Cancer Risk

Diesel particulate matter (DPM) has been identified as a Toxic Air Contaminant with
cancer and non-cancer effects. Cancer risk from DPM is calculated below:

Cancer Risk = C x URF x LEA

Where,
C = Annual average concentration of DPM in micrograms per cubic meter.
URF = Unit Risk Factor for DPM (300 in one million), the estimated probability
that a person will contract cancer as a result of inhalation of DPM concentration
of 1 microgram per cubic meter continuously over a period of 70 years.
LEA = Lifetime Exposure Adjustment

For residential uses, the LEA is 1.0.

Diesel Particulate Chronic Hazard Index Calculation

The Chronic Hazard Index for DPM is calculated below:

HI = C/REL
Where,

HI = Hazard Index
6
Monterey Bay Unified Air Pollution Control District, Diesel Health Risk Assessment Guidance for
Analyzing Health Risks near Truck Stops, Warehouse/Distribution Center, Transit Center, Train Idling for
CEQA Air Quality Analysis Requirements, October 2003.
7
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Screening Procedures for Estimating the Air Quality Impact of
Stationary Sources (Revised), Report EPA-454/R-92-019, October 1992.
C = Annual average DPM concentration in micrograms per cubic meter
REL = Reference Exposure Level for DPM (5 micrograms per cubic meter)

Acrolein Acute Hazard Index Calculation

The Acute Hazard Index for Acrolein is calculated below:

HI = C/REL
Where,
HI = Hazard Index
C = Maximum 1-hour acrolein concentration in micrograms per cubic meter
REL = Reference Exposure Level for acrolein (0.19 micrograms per cubic meter)

4. Results

The following table shows calculated values of cancer risk and chronic/acute non-
cancer risks associated with the proposed project. The calculated risks are based on
the very conservative SCREEN3 results. All project-related risks are below MBUAPCD
thresholds of significance. The SCREEN3 printout pages are attached.

Table 2: Calculated Risk at Point of Greatest Concentration

Pollutant Risk Factor Maximum Calculated MBUAPCD

Concentration Risk Threshold of
ug/m3 Significance
Excess
Diesel Exhaust 0.0009936 0.298/ million
Lifetime 10/million
Particulate (0.00559) (1.67/ million)
Cancer Risk

Diesel Exhaust
Chronic 0.0009936 HI= 0.0002
Particulate HI = 1.0
Hazard (0.00559) (HI= 0.0011)

0.0026 HI = 0.0137
Acrolein Acute Hazard HI = 1.0
(0.0026) (HI = 0.0137)
 12/21/04
17:57:01
SCREEN3 MODEL RUN
VERSION DATED 96043

APTOS TRAIN DIESEL PARTICULATE

SIMPLE TERRAIN INPUTS:
SOURCE TYPE POINT
EMISSION RATE (GIS) .30700E-05
STACK HEIGHT (M) 4.2500
STK INSIDE DIAM (M) .1000
STK EXIT VELOCITY (M/S)= 9.1000
STK GAS EXIT TEMP (K) 455.0000
AMBIENT AIR TEMP (K) 293.0000
RECEPTOR HEIGHT (M) 1.5000
URBAN/RURAL OPTION URBAN
BUILDING HEIGHT (M) .0000
MIN HORIZ BLDG DIM (M) = .0000
MAX HORIZ BLDG DIM (M) = .0000

THE REGULATORY (DEFAULT) MIXING HEIGHT OPTION WAS SELECTED.

THE REGULATORY (DEFAULT) ANEMOMETER HEIGHT OF 10.0 METERS WAS ENTERED.

BUOY. FLUX = .079 M**4/S**3; MOM. FLUX .133 M**4/S**2.

FULL METEOROLOGY

SCREEN AUTOMATED DISTANCES

TERRAIN HEIGHT OF 0. M ABOVE STACK BASE USED FOR FOLLOWING

DISTANCES

DIST CONC U10m USTK MIX HT PLUME SIGMA

SIGMA
(M) (UG/M**3) STAB (M/S) (M/S) (M) HT (M) Y (M) Z
(M) DWASH
--------- ----- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
5. .9942E-03 2 5.0 5.0 1600.0 4.89 1.60 1.21 NO
100. .3873E-02 4 1.0 1.0 320.0 7.46 15.72 13.82 NO
200. .1865E-02 6 1.0 1.0 10000.0 14.85 21.39 14.36 NO

MAXIMUM 1-HR CONCENTRATION AT OR BEYOND5. M:

24. .1242E-01 3 1.0 1.0 320.0 7.46 5.55 5.08

DWASH= MEANS NO CALC MADE (CONC = 0.0)

DWASH=NO MEANS NO BUILDING DOWNWASH USED
DWASH=HS MEANS HUBER-SNYDER DOWNWASH USED
DWASH=SS MEANS SCHULMAN-SCIRE DOWNWASH USED
DWASH=NA MEANS DOWNWASH NOT APPLICABLE, X<3*LB
 SUMMARY OF SCREEN MODEL RESULTS

CALCULATION MAX CONC DIST TO TERRAIN

PROCEDURE (UG/M**3) MAX (M) HT (M)
-------------- ----------- ------- -------
SIMPLE TERRAIN .1242E-01 24. 0.
 12/21/04
18:03:01
SCREEN3 MODEL RUN
VERSION DATED 96043

APTOS TRAIN ACROLEIN

SIMPLE TERRAIN INPUTS:
SOURCE TYPE POINT
EMISSION RATE (GIS) .600000E-06
STACK HEIGHT (M) 4.2500
STK INSIDE DIAM (M) .1000
STK EXIT VELOCITY (M/S)= 9.1000
STK GAS EXIT TEMP (K) 455.0000
AMBIENT AIR TEMP (K) 293.0000
RECEPTOR HEIGHT (M) 1.5000
URBAN/RURAL OPTION URBAN
BUILDING HEIGHT (M) .0000
MIN HORIZ BLDG DIM (M) = .0000
MAX HORIZ BLDG DIM (M) = .0000

THE REGULATORY (DEFAULT) MIXING HEIGHT OPTION WAS SELECTED.

THE REGULATORY (DEFAULT) ANEMOMETER HEIGHT OF 10.0 METERS WAS ENTERED.

BUOY. FLUX = .079 M**4/S**3; MOM. FLUX .133 M**4/S**2.

FULL METEOROLOGY
SCREEN AUTOMATED DISTANCES
TERRAIN HEIGHT OF 0. M ABOVE STACK BASE USED FOR FOLLOWING
DISTANCES

DIST CONC U10M USTK MIX HT PLUME SIGMA SIGMA

(M) (UG/M**3) STAB (MIS) (MIS) (M) HT (M) Y (M) Z (M) DWASH
----------------- ---- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------ -------
5. .3393E-03 2 5.0 5.0 1600.0 4.64 1.60 1.21 NO
100. .7641E-03 4 1.0 1.0 320.0 7.21 15.72 13.82 NO
200. .3709E-03 6 1.0 1.0 10000.0 14.60 21.39 14.36 NO

MAXIMUM 1-HR CONCENTRATION AT OR BEYOND 5. M:

23. .2608E-02 3 1.0 1.0 320.0 7.21 5.33 4.89

DWASH= MEANS NO CALC MADE (CONC = 0.0)

DWASH=NO MEANS NO BUILDING DOWNWASH USED
DWASH=HS MEANS HUBER-SNYDER DOWNWASH USED
DWASH=SS MEANS SCHULMAN-SCIRE DOWNWASH USED
DWASH=NA MEANS DOWNWASH NOT APPLICABLE, X<3*LB

SUMMARY OF SCREEN MODEL RESULTS

CALCULATION MAX CONC DIST TO TERRAIN

PROCEDURE (UG/M**3) MAX (M) HT (M)
-------------- ----------- ------- -------
SIMPLE TERRAIN .2608E-02 23. 0.