Reuters Company Research

Western Refining, Inc. (WNR) 29 Jan 2010

Performance Rating: Underperform

2006 2010

Share Price Summary
Close Price on 1/29/10........................................... $4.57
Absolute Price Change on 1/29/10........................... -0.10
Percent Change....................................................-2.14%
Off 52-Week High...............................................-71.96%
Over 52-Week Low................................................ 2.70%
Beta....................................................................... 0.273
Overview
Float (mil)............................................................. 51.607
10 Day Average Volume (mil)................................... 2.096
1 Day Volume Change on 1/29/10.........................-9.20%
Market Capitalization (mil).........................................$406
TTM Price/Earnings......................................................NA
Price/Earnings Current Fiscal Year Estimate..................NM
Percent Price Change WNR S&P 500
Year to Date.................................-2.97........... -3.70
One Year................................... -60.81.......... 30.03
Two Years................................. -79.25......... -23.04
Three Years............................... -83.30......... -25.73
Five Years........................................NA............... NA
Ten Years........................................ NA............... NA

Table of Contents
Reuters Rating ....................................... 2 General Sentiment ..................................5 Footprints of Success ............................. 8
Getting Acquainted ................................. 3 Stock Price Rationale ..............................6
Share Price Trends .................................4 Expectations and Credibility .....................7

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Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE:WNR) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research

Performance Rating: Underperform

Reuters ratings are based on a proprietary model that leverages widely accepted statistical methods and financial concepts to select attributes shown to be strong indicators of future
stock price performance and applies these to rank stocks along a normal distribution curve. Ranks for Fundamental Quality, Value Catch-up, Operational Trends and Technical Factors
are combined into a Composite Rating of Outperform, Neutral or Underperform.

Reuters Composite Rating Component Rating Component Weight

We cannot guarantee that each stock will perform Types of investment criteria differ in how useful
in accordance with its rank. But we do believe that they are for predicting future stock movement.
over the long term, stocks rated Outperform (30% Based on our research, the Composite Rank
of all stocks we rate) will, in the aggregate, Fundamental Technical assumes these relative degrees of importance.
outperform stocks rated Neutral (40% of all stocks Quality Factors

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WNR shares are presently rated UNDERPERFORM. Value Catch-up 24%
No forecast is made for the stock market as a whole. Value Operational
However, we do believe that whichever way the market Catch-up Trends
moves, it is probable that shares rated UNDERPERFORM
are, in the aggregate, less likely to keep pace with most "Under" = Underperform Technical Factors: Underperform
others.
This rating is based on analyses of share price
movements over a variety of time periods. We
Fundamental Quality Component: Underperform compare performance characteristics of individual
This rating is based on characteristics traditionally associated with "good" companies. We focus on how each company stocks with those of all the others we rate.
measures up against others, and give careful attention to recent improvement or slippage relative to other companies. Generally speaking, our goal is to favor up-trending
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months. shares that have experienced recent corrections
and de-emphasize down-trending shares
Very Negative Negative Neutral Positive Very Positive
experiencing uncharacteristic periods of strength.
TTM Return on Investment Here is how WNR shares performed during the
Improvement in TTM Return on Investment various periods we examined.
TTM Pretax Margin
Improvement in TTM Pretax Margin Price Change
Depreciation in Excess of Capital Spending Needs Past 7 days -6.7%
Past 30 days -3.0%
Issuance/Repurchase of Common Shares Past 60 days -6.7%
Common Shares Dilution
Presence/Absence of Unusual Income Items
Change for Past 180 Days: -32.1%
Value Catch-up Component: Outperform
This rating measures the extent to which the share price adequately reflects improving or eroding fundamentals, and favors
$6.73
shares whose prices have been slower to "catch up" to improving performance measures. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
$4.57
Very Negative Negative Neutral Positive Very Positive
Open on 8/5/09 Close on 1/29/10
Price Catch-up with TTM Earnings
Price Catch-up to TTM Sales
Price Catch-up to TTM Free Cash Flow Change Between 60 and 30 Days Ago: -3.9%
Price Catch-up to MRQ Book Value

Operational Trends Component: Underperform

$4.90 $4.71
This rating reflects how strong a company's recent Sales and EPS (reported as per GAAP) growth have been relative to other
companies we rate. MRQ = Most Recent Quarter. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months. Open on 12/3/09 Close on 12/31/09
Very Negative Negative Neutral Positive Very Positive
Most Recent Quarter EPS Growth
Improvement in EPS Growth for Consecutive Quarters Change Between 180 and 60 Days Ago: -27.2%
Improvement in EPS Growth (MRQ vs. TTM)
Most Recent Quarter Sales Growth
Improvement in Sales Growth (MRQ vs. TTM) $6.73
$4.90

Peer Comparison Open on 8/5/09 Close on 12/3/09

This section shows the comparison of key components between WNR and several of its peers.
Composite Fundamental Technical Value Operational Change Between 180 and 90 Days Ago: -16.8%
Company Name (Ticker) Rating Quality Factors Catch-up Trends
Western Refinin... (WNR) Underperform Underperform Underperform Outperform Underperform
Valero Energy Corporati... (VLO) Outperform Neutral Underperform Outperform Outperform
ConocoPhillips (COP) $6.73
Alon USA Energy, Inc. (ALJ) Underperform Underperform Underperform Neutral Underperform $5.60
Holly Corporation (HOC) Underperform Neutral Underperform Underperform Underperform
Open on 8/5/09 Close on 11/3/09

January 29, 2010 Page 2

Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE:WNR) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research

Getting Acquainted
Start your analysis by learning what the company does, how well it does it, where it stands relative to peers, and whether aspects of the corporate structure or capitalization are
bothersome to you.

Business Summary Contact Info

Western Refining, Inc. (Western Refining) is an independent crude oil refiner and marketer of refined products, and Western Refining, Inc. is headquartered at:
also operates service stations and convenience stores. The Company operates in three segments: refining, retail and 6500 Trowbridge Drive, El Paso, TX, 79905
wholesale. The Company owns and operates four refineries with a total crude oil throughput capacity of United States
approximately 238,000 barrels per day. In addition to its 128,000 barrels per day refinery in El Paso, Texas, Western (915) 775-3300
Refining also owns and operates a 70,000 barrels per day refinery on the East Coast of the United States near www.wnr.com/
Yorktown, Virginia and two refineries in the Four Corners region of Northern New Mexico with a combined throughput Mark Cox, Investor Relations
capacity of 40,000 barrels per day. Its primary operating areas encompass West Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah,
Colorado and the Mid-Atlantic region.

Financial Trends
TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter.
Historic Growth Rates
Fiscal Year Ending 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 TTM 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
Sales (mil) $2,215.2 $3,406.6 $4,199.4 $7,305.0 $10,725.6 $6,504.8 46.57 NA NA
EPS (GAAP) $0.99 $2.94 $3.11 $3.53 $0.95 ($3.58) (31.43) NA NA
Dividends/Share $0.00 $0.00 $0.16 $0.22 $0.06 $0.00 NA NA NA
Book Value/Share $0.00 $2.60 $7.80 $11.20 $11.97 * $8.90 66.35 NA NA
Tangible Book Value/Sh. $0.00 $2.60 $7.79 $5.70 $6.43 * $8.07 35.19 NA NA
Cash Flow/Share $1.05 $3.03 $3.32 $4.48 $2.62 ($1.69) (4.69) NA NA
Free Cash Flow/Share $0.99 $2.53 $1.77 ($2.63) $0.81 $1.41 (31.49) NA NA

Key Ratios
Historic Averages
Fiscal Year Ending 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 TTM 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year
% Sales Growth NM 53.8 23.3 74.0 46.8 (43.4) 48.0 NA NA
% EPS Growth NM 198.1 5.9 13.4 (73.2) (582.7) (18.0) NA NA
% Gross Margin 5.2 8.1 8.9 7.5 4.2 6.9 6.9 6.8 NA
% Operating Margin 3.6 6.4 7.2 5.3 1.8 (2.1) 4.8 4.8 NA
% Tax Rate 0.0 (0.0) 35.4 29.9 24.0 NA 29.8 17.9 NA
% Return on Assets NM 31.2 26.4 10.7 1.9 (8.3) 13.0 NA NA
% Return on Investment NM 59.6 45.4 14.4 2.4 (10.7) 20.7 NA NA
% Return on Equity NM 113.0 58.5 37.3 8.2 (32.6) 34.7 NA NA
Asset Turnover NM 5.3 5.4 3.3 3.2 2.0 4.0 NA NA
Receivables Turnover NM 22.4 25.0 21.9 30.4 16.3 25.8 NA NA
Inventory Turnover NM 21.5 25.0 17.3 19.0 12.6 20.4 NA NA

Equity Information Analyst Footnotes

Whether you are willing to accept companies that have or don't have major shareholders with controlling ownership blocks, Look for accounting changes, restructurings,
multiple classes of common, or convertible debt or preferred issues is a matter of individual preference. Look here for etc.which may affect how useful historic data is
anything along these lines that might make you more or less inclined to invest in this company. inassessing future company prospects.
Common Stock $.01 Par, 9/09, 240M auth., 88,679,790 issd. less 698,006 shs. in Treas. @ $21.4M. Insiders own 41.9%. IPO: 1/18/06, FY '04, '05 & 09/05 Qtr share numbers are Pro Forma
22.5M shs. @ $17 by Banc of AmericaSecurities LLC and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. numbers.

Peer Comparison
This table gives an indication of how Western Refining, Inc. stands in key respects compared with companies in the Oil & Gas Operations Industry
Current Fiscal Current Fiscal P/E Based on
Last Fiscal Year Year Projected Projected Year Projected Current Year EPS % Growth EPS % Growth
Company Name (Ticker) Revenue (mil) Revenue (mil) Price/Sales Operating EPS EPS Estimates Previous 5 Years Next 5 Years
Western Refinin... (WNR) $10,725.6 $6,212.1 0.1 $0.95 ($0.11) NM NA NA
Valero Energy Corporati... (VLO) $68,144.0 $78,058.7 0.1 ($0.65) $1.11 16.6 NA 5.0
ConocoPhillips (COP) $152,840.0 $161,741.0 0.4 $3.24 $5.91 8.1 (10.9) 7.0
Alon USA Energy, Inc. (ALJ) $5,156.7 $3,641.4 0.1 $1.72 ($1.55) NM 33.2 NA
Holly Corporation (HOC) $5,867.7 $4,638.4 0.3 $2.38 $1.10 23.6 27.1 22.0
Tesoro Corporation (TSO) $28,309.0 $16,279.7 0.1 $2.00 ($0.53) NM 27.9 14.0
Chevron Corporation (CVX) $171,636.0 $188,961.5 0.8 $5.24 $7.50 9.6 (3.1) 7.5

January 29, 2010 Page 3

Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE:WNR) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research

Share Price Trends

Stock price trends depict the collective opinion of the investment community. You don't have to agree with consensus views but seeing how others feel can help you decide what to
look for as you go further in your analysis. Consider it similar to reading a review before seeing a movie.

1 Year Price Chart with Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength

Technical analysts believe a narrowing of the bands suggests a significant price movement, up or down, will soon occur. Also, many say stocks that move outside the bands and then
back inside will soon move toward the opposite band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates the strength of the current price movement compared to other recent moves and
may signal when a trend is unsustainable. Technical analysts also believe RSI peaks/valleys forecast changes in share price trends.

High: 16.30
$16.30

12.50

8.70

4.90

Low: 4.45
Relative Strength Indicator 100%
50%

Volume (mil)

Average Volume
2.57
Feb' 09 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan' 10

10 Year Price Chart (Monthly) 5 Year Price Chart (Monthly)

$66.00 $66.00

51.00 51.00

36.00 36.00

21.00 21.00

6.00 6.00

0.03 0.03

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Vol (bil) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Vol (bil)

6 Month Price Chart (Daily) 1 Month Price Chart (Daily)

$5.84
$8.00

7.20 5.54

6.40 5.24

5.60 4.94

4.80
4.64

3.22 2.86

Aug' 09 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan' 10 Vol (mil) Jan' 10 Vol (mil)

January 29, 2010 Page 4

Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE:WNR) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research

General Sentiment
You can follow popular opinion or choose a contrarian's strategy. Either way, you should know whether the Street is bullish or bearish. Investor sentiment is typically positive when
the 50-day moving average is rising, especially if it's also above the 200-day moving average. Additionally, changes in price trend can be deemed more definitive if supported by
higher than normal volume.

52 Week Price History

$16.30

12.50

200 Day Moving Average

8.70

4.90
50 Day Moving Average

Volume (mil)
Average Volume
2.57

Feb' 09 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan' 10

Price History
Calendar Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
High Price NA NA NA NA NA 29.44 66.13 25.77 16.30
Low Price NA NA NA NA NA 14.33 23.60 4.50 4.45
Year End Price NA NA NA NA NA 25.46 24.21 7.76 4.71

High P/E NA NA NA NA NA 8.13 15.86 NA NA

Low P/E NA NA NA NA NA 3.55 4.29 NA NA
Year End P/E NA NA NA NA NA 8.13 6.82 8.19 NA
Dividend Yield NA NA NA NA NA 0.63 0.91 0.77 NA

Price Performance Insider Trading

When stocks significantly beat or trail the S&P 500 or the industry, investors are looking more intently at company- specific Insider buying can be seen as bullish because,
matters than general-market factors. In the two percentile rank columns, a high "Rank in Industry" coupled with a low presumably, their company knowledge is superior.
"Industry Rank" could signify a hot stock in a cold industry. The reverse, is also noteworthy. However, insider sales are less reliable because
insiders may sell for a variety of reasons that have
Actual Percent vs. vs. Rank in Industry
nothing to do with their opinion of the stock.
Time Period Change Change S&P 500 Industry Industry Rank
4 Week (0.14) (3.0)% 0.8% (1.6)% NA NA
In the last 6 months, there have been 2 insider
13 Week (1.04) (18.5)% (21.4)% (20.7)% NA NA purchases for a total of 80,000 shares, and there has
26 Week (1.94) (29.8)% (35.4)% (41.4)% NA NA been 1 insider sale of 5,000 shares.
52 Week (7.04) (60.6)% (69.0)% (72.3)% NA NA
Net Change (6 months) 0 mil
Year To Date (0.14) (3.0)% 0.8% (1.6)% NA NA 6 Month Net Transactions 1

BarChartKey Rank Key Institutional Ownership

YTD R 4 Wk. Worst R Best 1 R 100 It's worthwhile to know what institutions are doing
simply because their stock positions can be so
Short Interest large. In the short term, stocks will perform well if
institutions are buying and perform poorly if
A high or increasing short interest implies that many investors expect the stock price to decline. You can treat that as a institutions are selling.
warning. Or you can disagree with the crowd and buy stocks with high short interest in anticipation of a short squeeze (a rally
that occurs when short sellers rush to buy a stock, fearing losses they might incur if they wait too long). Prospects for a 289 institutions own 38.7% of the 0.09 billion common
squeeze are indicated by high readings in the "Days to Cover" column (which tells how many days it would take for all short shares outstanding. This is lower than the average
interest positions to be covered if recent trading volume levels persist). The risk: The bears may be right. So research other institutional ownership of the Oil & Gas Operations
aspects of the company. Industry at 39.6%, and lower than the average of the
Month Shares % Outstanding Percent of Float Days to Cover S&P 500 as a whole which is 66.1%.
December 2010 12,002,960 13.52 23.26 3.42 Net Change (3 month) (9.1)%
November 14,363,640 16.18 27.83 5.04 Net Purchases (3 month) (7.96) mil
October 10,642,440 11.99 20.62 2.72 Shares Purchased (3 month) 6.38 mil
September 8,792,320 9.91 55.65 2.54 Shares Sold (3 month) 14.34 mil

January 29, 2010 Page 5

Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE:WNR) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research

Stock Price Rationale

Determine if the stock price is justified by: growth-based value, comparative value, liquid assets, or dividends. The better the company, (in terms of growth or quality), the higher the
valuation measures can be. And if valuation ratios are extremely low, double-check to see if the company appears excessively weak. In any case, you don't have to say yes to any
valuation measure - many buy shares based on other factors (e.g., growth). But if you do that, at least understand what you're doing and consider the risks.

Viewing Things In Context

Many people erroneously work with valuation ratios calculated based on numbers that aren't truly representative of a company's underlying sustainable financial characteristics. Thus
it's important to determine if today's sales and EPS are significantly depressed or elevated due to temporary factors such as business cycles. Higher ratios can be tolerated if sales and
EPS are temporarily depressed. But if the company is experiencing unsustainable boom conditions, seek lower ratios. GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.

Fiscal Year Ending 12/31/04 12/31/05 12/31/06 12/31/07 12/31/08 12/31/09E 12/31/10E
Sales/Share NA NA $32.38 $49.80 $63.84 $108.07 $158.30 $91.68 $113.12
Price/Sales NA NA NA NA 0.40 0.20 0.05 0.05 0.04
EPS (GAAP) NA NA $0.99 $2.94 $3.11 $3.53 $0.95 ($0.11) ($0.06)
P/E (GAAP) NA NA NA NA 8.22 6.00 8.60 NM NM
EPS (Normalized) NA NA $0.99 $2.94 $3.11 $3.54 $0.95 ($0.11) ($0.06)
P/E (Normalized) NA NA NA NA 8.22 5.99 8.60 NM NM
Dividend Yield (%) NA NA NA NA 0.63 1.04 0.74 0.00 0.00

Valuation Based On Growth

The faster a company grows, the higher its stock's P/E can be. Contrary to popular belief, PEG (P/E over Growth Rate) need not always be 1.00 or less. But all else being equal, lower is
better (and 3.00 is usually too high). Try to favor company PEGs that are lower than industry and market PEGs. In all cases, watch for very high growth estimates. If overly optimistic
projections get cut, PEG would wind up being higher. FY = Fiscal Year.

Price/EPS (Est.) for Current FY Price/EPS (Est.) for Next FY Long Term Growth Estimate Next FY P/E over LT Growth
Western Refining, Inc. NM NM NA NA
Oil & Gas Operations 22.75 17.93 10.01 2.08
S&P 500 16.34 13.30 10.11 1.73

Comparative Valuation Ratios Dividends

Valuation below industry or S&P 500 averages can be attractive - unless the company is materially worse in terms of quality Dividend is the most classic basis for
growth prospects. Year-by-year trends in comparative valuations can give clues about company merit. Be especially on guard stockvaluation, and high dividend yields are
if comparative ratios are deteriorating over time. On the other hand, relatively low valuations that are moving toward the usuallydeemed preferable. Today, with many
averages might indicate that the market is tuning in to heretofore under-appreciated company merit. companiesreinvesting profits back into the
FY = Fiscal Year, TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter. business, moderateor low yields can be accepted if
Western Refining, Inc. dividends growrapidly. The main risk is that poor
performance willcause the dividend to be cut or
Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/Free omitted. A very highpayout ratio is one warning
Earnings Sales Book Cash Flow Tang. Book Cash Flow signal. Another is ayield that is very high relative to
Trailing 12 Months NA 0.06 * 0.51 NA * 0.57 3.90 industry peers.
FY Ending 12/31/08 8.60 0.05 0.68 3.11 1.27 10.02 TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
FY Ending 12/31/07 6.00 0.20 1.89 4.73 3.72 (8.07)
FY Ending 12/31/06 8.22 0.40 3.28 7.71 3.29 14.44
FY Ending 12/31/05 NA NA NA NA NA NA WNR Industry
Current Dividend Yield NA 2.0%
5 Yr. Avg. Dividend Yield NA 1.5%
Bar Chart Key 5 Yr. Dividend Growth Rate NA 27.9%
2005 R TTM TTM Payout Ratio NA 26.6%
5 Yr. Average Payout Ratio NA 10.3%
Oil & Gas Operations
Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/Free
Earnings Sales Book Cash Flow Tang. Book Cash Flow
Trailing 12 Months 32.45 3.87 * 2.66 13.43 * 2.99 45.22 Liquid Assets
FY Ending 2008 11.83 1.98 1.43 9.83 1.52 (0.28)
FY Ending 2007 20.42 3.70 3.00 9.03 2.92 5.73 Get a general sense of the extent to which the
FY Ending 2006 13.86 3.00 3.15 7.11 2.66 2.61 stockprice is offset by the presence of assets that
FY Ending 2005 16.97 3.74 3.55 8.83 3.58 7.40 can beconverted to cash immediately or in the near
future. Often, these ratios will not be meaningful.
Most companies are valued as ongoing businesses,
rather than liquidation/buyout prospects. If you're
Bar Chart Key lookingat an especially troubled company, be aware
2005 R TTM
that seemingly liquid-asset windfalls can be
dissipatedby continuing operating losses and/or
S&P 500
shutdown costs.
Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/ Price/Free
Earnings Sales Book Cash Flow Tang. Book Cash Flow
Trailing 12 Months 20.49 2.34 * 3.48 14.01 * 5.59 22.02 Price to ... WNR Industry
FY Ending 2008 16.58 2.24 3.33 9.73 3.32 22.14 General Working Capital 1.3 11.9
FY Ending 2007 22.59 2.84 4.14 15.21 5.87 27.09 (current assets minus current liabilities)
FY Ending 2006 20.69 2.92 3.84 14.04 5.31 30.00
FY Ending 2005 23.63 3.27 4.32 16.15 6.12 21.48 Net Working Capital (0.3) (3.1)
(current assets minus all liabilities)

Bar Chart Key Cash (& cash equivalents) 6.2 27.0

2005 R TTM Cash minus total debt (0.4) (4.7)
Cash minus all liabilities (0.2) (2.3)

January 29, 2010 Page 6

Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE:WNR) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research

Expectations And Credibility

In theory, stock prices are based on the "present value" of expected future company cash flows. Therefore, we try to obtain accurate estimates of future financial performance. But
remember, these are just estimates. Since we cannot really know what will happen tomorrow, we evaluate estimates critically by seeking clues that help us distinguish between
normal versus excessive degrees of uncertainty.

Estimates In Context
Below are the present consensus revenue and EPS estimates. Notice whether analysts expect recent year-to-year growth trends to persist, or are forecasting sharp improvement or
deterioration. The sharper the predicted change, the greater the level of uncertainty in the forecast. (GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)

Revenue ($mil) GAAP Earnings Per Share ($)

Mar 31st Jun 30th Sep 30th Dec 31st Year Total Mar 31st Jun 30th Sep 30th Dec 31st Year Total
FY Ending 12/2006 881.5 1,156.5 1,174.1 987.4 4,199.4 (0.32) 1.29 1.30 0.76 3.11
FY Ending 12/2007 994.0 1,659.2 2,232.9 2,419.0 7,305.0 0.93 2.29 0.69 (0.38) 3.53
FY Ending 12/2008 2,551.1 3,352.5 3,165.3 1,656.7 10,725.6 (0.60) 0.12 1.60 (0.19) 0.95
FY Ending 12/2009 1,368.2 1,583.5 1,896.3 1,690.6 E 6,212.1 E 0.86 (4.20) (0.05) (0.69) E (0.11) E
FY Ending 12/2010 1,969.6 E 2,029.5 E 2,144.0 E NA E 7,664.3 E (0.17) E 0.10 E 0.01 E 0.02 E (0.06) E

Confidence In Estimates EPS Estimate Accuracy

The range of estimates can be measured by standard deviation. The narrower the range (the lower the standard deviation Assess the extent to which analysts are
compared to the "mean" estimate) and/or the greater the number of analysts, the more definitive the expectations. Note, too, accurateand have a handle on the earning trends
the extent to which company expectations are consistent with or diverge from those for industry and/or market. bycomparing Estimates to Actual figures (which
mayomit various charges/credits included in
Long Term Growth Rate Near Term Growth Rate GAAPresults). The Actual figures are the ones that
Mean # of Estimates Standard Dev. Mean # of Estimates Standard Dev. aremost comparable in accounting method to the
Estimates. (GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting
NA NA NA WNR NA 6 4.63
Principles)
10.0 2 2.73 Industry 18.2 9 23.95
10.1 5 3.20 S&P 500 0.2 12 7.41 Quarter Estimate Actual GAAP
09/09 qtr. ($0.06) ($0.05) ($0.05)
Reasonableness 06/09 qtr. ($0.15) ($0.11) ($4.20)
03/09 qtr. $0.84 $0.86 $0.86
Look at the tables below to see if analysts are expecting the company to accomplish more than it has accomplished in the 12/08 qtr. $0.46 $0.44 ($0.19)
past. Such things can and do happen. But the stronger the predicted future (compared to the past), the greater the burden of 09/08 qtr. $1.11 $1.62 $1.60
proof on the part of those issuing the estimates.

Annual Growth EPS (%) Sales (%) Quarterly Growth EPS (%) Sales (%) Quarterly EPS Estimate Revisions
5 year Estimate NA NA 03/10 qtr. Estimate NA 44.0
2009 Estimate NA (42.1) 12/09 qtr. Estimate NA 2.0 12/09 qtr.
Last 5 years NA NA 09/09 qtr. NA (40.1)
Last 3 years (31.4) 46.6 06/09 qtr. NA (52.8)
Last Year (73.2) 46.8 03/09 qtr. NA (46.4) There is currently not enough data available to use
Trailing 12 Months (582.7) (43.4) 12/08 qtr. NA (31.5) to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions.

Analyst Recommendation Trends Feb May Aug Nov Feb

Difference of opinion is normal, so don't demand unanimity. Look for ratings clusters in a part of the best-to-worst scale and 03/10 qtr.
at Mean Rating scores. Also important is whether analyst sentiment is improving or declining over time.
There is currently not enough data available to use
Buy Outperform Hold Underperform Sell Mean to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions.
(Value 1) (Value 2) (Value 3) (Value 4) (Value 5) Rating
As of 1/29/10 0 0 4 2 0 3.33
As of 4 Weeks ago 0 0 5 2 0 3.29 Feb May Aug Nov Feb
As of 8 Weeks ago 0 0 6 2 0 3.25 06/10 qtr.
As of 12 Weeks ago 0 0 6 1 0 3.14
There is currently not enough data available to use
to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions.
Bar Chart Key Mean Rating
12 Wks ago R 1/29 1.00 = Best
5.00 = Worst Feb May Aug Nov Feb

Annual EPS Estimate Revisions

Since estimates address an unknowable future, revision (often prompted by company guidance) is to be expected. Investors are usually happy when analysts are scrambling to chase
reality upward. So increases in estimates tend to spark strong share price performance. The reverse is usually true when estimates are falling.
Gap in Coverage Negative Surprise Positive Surprise As Expected EPS
$15.43 $3.36
FY 2006
2.40
11.83

1.44
8.23
0.48

4.63 -0.48
Feb' 09 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan' 10

January 29, 2010 Page 7

Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE:WNR) -- Oil & Gas Operations/Energy Reuters Company Research

Footprints of Success
In many respects, business success requires subjective judgment. However, over time, good companies tend to leave good footprints, which become most visible when company data
is compared to industry/sector/market benchmarks. That's how you see when companies perform well, not just because a rising business tide lifts all boats, but because the company
is doing unique, good things. Look, too, at time-series comparisons, and take note of companies that are improving faster or suffering less than peers.

Growth Rates (%)

Investors are accustomed to looking at EPS growth. Check sales growth, too. EPS gains can't persist indefinitely without good sales growth. Do further investigation if sales trends are
falling short. (A big short fall might reflect a divestiture. On the other hand, if sales growth looks too good, check to see if it's being boosted by an acquisition.) Also, compare sales
growth to capital spending growth. Over a prolonged period, it's reasonable to expect capital spending growth to more or less keep pace with sales growth. If the latter is significantly
higher, capital spending may have to accelerate in the next few years.
Company Rank WNR WNR WNR
% Growth Rate WNR Industry Sector S&P 500 in Industry vs. Industry vs. Sector vs. S&P 500
Sales Growth For Most Recent Quarter (40.1) (38.9) (32.4) (1.8) 58
Sales Growth For Trailing 12 Months (43.4) (30.4) (25.6) (5.5) 48
Sales Growth For Past 5 Years NA 30.7 22.2 11.2 74 NA NA NA

Capital Spending Growth for Past 5 Years NA 41.2 17.4 (2.6) 81 NA NA NA

EPS Growth for Most Recent Quarter (103.4) (55.3) (48.2) 9.7 NA
EPS Growth for Trailing Twelve Months (582.7) (44.7) (38.7) (0.8) NA
EPS Growth for Past 5 Years NA 31.1 28.1 15.2 12 NA NA NA
Worst R Best = Co. underperforming = Co. outperforming

Company Quality
Some companies excel in obtaining high margins (watch out for very low tax rates, which may reflect special benefits that often won't persist indefinitely) while others are highly
efficient. Still others are strong in both respects. These trade-offs are balanced in the Management Effectiveness returns, which combine both factors. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.

Company Rank WNR WNR WNR

Profitability Ratios (%) WNR Industry Sector S&P 500 in Industry vs. Industry vs. Sector vs. S&P 500
Gross Margin for Trailing Twelve Months 6.9 61.7 40.1 46.0 10
Gross Margin for Past 5 Years NA 63.8 40.9 45.6 9 NA NA NA
Operating Margin for Trailing Twelve Months (2.1) 6.9 10.4 16.2 40
Operating Margin for Past 5 Years NA 31.5 21.9 18.9 42 NA NA NA
EBITD Margin for Trailing Twelve Months 0.0 36.8 23.0 22.0 25
EBITD Margin for Past 5 Years NA 48.1 30.7 23.1 52 NA NA NA
Pretax Margin for Trailing Twelve Months (4.0) 11.6 10.3 15.3 30
Pretax Margin for Past 5 Years NA 28.9 20.7 17.8 43 NA NA NA
Net Margin for Trailing Twelve Months (4.1) (8.4) 2.1 10.1 39
Net Margin for Past 5 Years NA 18.6 13.4 12.5 47 NA NA NA
Effective Tax Rate for Trailing Twelve Months NA 29.3 33.3 29.1 NA NA NA NA
Effective Tax Rate for Past 5 Years NA 33.2 34.6 30.2 43 NA NA NA
Company Rank WNR WNR WNR
Efficiency Ratios (TTM) WNR Industry Sector S&P 500 in Industry vs. Industry vs. Sector vs. S&P 500
Asset Turnover 2.0 0.5 0.8 0.9 96
Receivables Turnover 16.3 7.5 8.6 10.4 94
Inventory Turnover 12.6 10.4 13.5 11.3 60
Revenue/Employee $1,971,138 $2,183,345 $2,274,654 $775,890 81
Net Income/Employee $(80,606) $252,117 $189,240 $93,049 NA
Company Rank WNR WNR WNR
Management Effectiveness Ratios (%) WNR Industry Sector S&P 500 in Industry vs. Industry vs. Sector vs. S&P 500
Return on Assets for TTM (8.3) (4.9) 2.1 6.8 NA
Return on Assets for Past 5 Years NA 8.5 11.7 8.7 NA NA NA NA
Return on Investment for TTM (10.7) (4.8) 3.2 9.7 NA
Return on Investment for Past 5 Years NA 10.1 14.8 12.5 87 NA NA NA
Return on Equity for TTM (32.6) (7.3) 4.7 17.0 42
Return on Equity for Past 5 Years NA 18.4 24.0 20.3 NA NA NA NA
Worst R Best = Co. underperforming = Co. outperforming

Financial Strength
Quick Ratio (cash and marketable securities divided by current liabilities) and Current Ratio (all current assets divided by current liabilities) give a sense of how readily the company
could cover current obligations if the sales were to stop. Higher ratios indicate greater liquidity. Different businesses have different cash inflow-outflow characteristics, so compare
companies to industry averages. Similar comparisons are relevant for debt ratios (higher ratios indicate more debt and, hence, more financial risk) and interest coverage (lower
numbers signify greater risk).
Company Rank WNR WNR WNR
WNR Industry Sector S&P 500 in Industry vs. Industry vs. Sector vs. S&P 500
Quick Ratio 0.7 1.3 1.0 1.4 59
Current Ratio 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.0 71
Total Debt to Equity 136.2 74.8 43.2 77.0 18
Long Term Debt to Equity 134.5 71.5 40.4 69.8 12
Interest Coverage (1.1) (0.7) 2.6 12.2 68
Worst R Best = Co. underperforming = Co. outperforming

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