Mark Fowler N00667049

Real World Policy

Professor Soderberg
Final Paper Outline
CONFIDENTIAL

THE WHITE HOUSE

NATIONAL SECRUITY COUNCIL
Memo To: POTUS
From: APSNA
Subject: To dramatically reduce the trafficking of opium from Afghanistan into the U.S.
Date: 12.09.2014
Summary
The international drug trade has been a very tumultuous problem for the United
States for decades. Many Americans are severely dependent on illicit drugs such as
heroin. Heroin is a mere derivative from opium poppy plants, a crop primarily grown in
the Middle East and Asia. Opium is banned just about everywhere in the developed
world, and causes severe tensions in the Middle East. Nowhere is opium more grown
and exported than in southwestern Afghanistan. Not only is this a threat to our national
security, many lives are put in danger just to smuggle opium across country borders.
There is no doubt that the opium drug trade is a lucrative business with promising
rewards. However, many families in southern Afghanistan are harvesting hundreds of
crops just to keep their familys heads above water. Under the Taliban, opium trades in
Afghanistan were put on hold for a few years. After U.S. troops assisted Afghans in
removing the Taliban from Kabul, the ban on opium was lifted and harvests almost
doubled. Additionally, tensions between Iran and Afghanistan grew heavy in 2008
during a major haul of drugs made it over country borders. Already sensitive to
economical conflict, Afghan farmers depend on the international drug trade to keep their
money coming in. Last year alone, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime stated
that opium trades accounted for an alarming 14 percent of the nations GDP.
We must do something to combat the prominent and growing opium drug trade in
Afghanistan. Although many counternarcotic programs are already set in place in Kabul,
none have proved to be successful in weakening the numbers. Each year, the opium drug
trade is expected to rise by at least 12 percent. I have developed 4 viable options for your
consideration in dramatically reducing the opium drug industry in Afghanistan.

Background

Mark Fowler N00667049

Real World Policy
Professor Soderberg
Final Paper Outline
Over the past decade, the United States has not been very successful in reducing
the amount of illicit drugs smuggled across our borders. With an estimated 19 million
Americans participating in recreational drug use each month and spending over $60
billion on the fragmented criminal drug market annually, the international drug trade is
becoming a larger threat to national security. Additionally, the U.S. drug market
generates billions of dollars in profits, providing international drug trafficking
organizations with resources to evade law enforcement, to penetrate legitimate economic
structures, and to challenge the authority of national governments.
Drug production and sales have dramatically increased in the past decade. Opium
and marijuana have roughly doubled in production. Our knowledge of the distribution
and trafficking of these drugs is very sparse, yet the trafficking organizations keep a very
tight grip on their profits and trade systems. It is difficult for us to determine how the
drugs are being imported and where they are being sold, but we do know that it is an
incredibly lucrative business for criminals.
One substance in particular, opium, has been steadily becoming a more prominent
drug in the black market. Opium (lachryma papaveris) derives from the poppy plant. It
contains about 12 percent analgesic alkaline morphine and codeine, which are painkilling
substances and the primary additives in heroine and other illicit drugs. Opium is
converted into heroin in laboratories where its cultivated, and then consumed locally or
shipped to consumer countries via a black market.
In the United States, the unrestricted accessibility of opium, opium-smoking
immigrants from East Asia, and the spread of needle-based drug injection contributed to a
severe compulsive drug abuse period seen around the end of the 20th century. The
International Opium Convention in 1925, implemented by the United States, Netherlands,
China, Honduras, and Norway, addressed a very elementary global ban on the trading of
opium. In 1961, a stronger international treaty named the Single Convention on Narcotic
Drugs superseded the original set of laws by adding a more in depth list of narcotic
substances. Rehabilitation centers saw a dramatic increase of patients addicted to heroin
in the 1990s. In 2012, the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH)
determined rough estimates of 669,000 Americans over the age of 12 are severely
dependent on heroin. The NSGUH also predicts that the numbers are rising from coast to
coast, causing negative and deadly health effects to repetitive users.
It takes approximately ten kilograms of opium to make one kilogram of heroin.
Therefore, to make any profit from the plant, a farmer must grow in excess. Farmers who
produce opium are usually miles from a civilized form of government or establishment,
and remain hidden from the attention of main highways or road systems. Farmers
understand that opium is not only a year-round crop, but it is extremely easy to maintain
and harvest compared to other crops such as corn or wheat. Additionally, the opium
business is very profitable to the farmer. As of 2012, the NSGUH estimates that the retail
price of a kilogram of opium starts at $18,000. Opiums main producers are Afghanistan,
Pakistan, India, Thailand, Turkey, Laos, Burma, Hungary and Mexico. However,
nowhere in the world produces and exports more opium than Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is the worlds main source of opium poppy cultivation and opium
and heroin production. Afghanistans lack of resources has encouraged and grown a
thriving drug trade. Before the country fell under Taliban control, Afghanistans major

Mark Fowler N00667049

Real World Policy
Professor Soderberg
Final Paper Outline
export was opium. It produced roughly 75 percent of the worlds supply. However,
under the Taliban, which enforced a ban on opium cultivation in 1999, according to some
estimates, opium poppy cultivation dropped significantly from 3,000 tons to 200 tons.
After the Taliban were forced from Kabul, opium farms began to replenish and
the opium trade made its biggest comeback in history. The United Nations Office on
Drugs and Crime (UNODC) estimates that from 2004-2007, farmers produced more
opium each quarter than in one entire year under Taliban rule. For the past 22 years, the
United States have kept an eye on the corruption and geopolitical conflict in Afghanistan.
Humanitarian assistance programs have been a part of the multilateral effort to relieve
human suffering and assist refugees and internally displaced persons.
In 2003, Afghanistan worked with partnering countries to develop a
counternarcotic program that reduced the amount of opium production in Afghanistan
through a series of drug control programs. The system was finalized late in 2013, and has
yet to be converted into English. We are assuming that they plan on implementing a
number of different trade reform programs to better monitor what is being imported and
exported over the borders. The State Department reports that Kabul wants to achieve the
following goals by 2016:
Increase drug seizure rates
Reduce opium poppy cultivation, compared to the 2011 baseline of 131,000
hectares
Increase the capacity to treat addicts
Increase annual arrest volumes of low-, mid-, and high-value traffickers
The consequence of Afghanistans drug economy is vast, including policy
implications for economic and political development, as well as regional security
priorities. There is no doubt that the opium trade is raking in the money to local farmers.
In 2013, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)
estimated that opium production was the highest ever at 209,000 hectares, up 36 percent
from 2012. The U.S. government has spent at least $7.6 billion in counternarcotic
assistance to Afghanistan since the international community began reconstruction and
stability operations in 2002. More than $4 billion was spent through the State
Department and upward of $3 billion through the Defense Department. Perhaps the most
effective anti-drug campaign from Washington was crop disease. However, farmers and
supplies quickly rebounded and moved elsewhere. Much of the newly farmed land in
southern and southwestern Afghanistan is being used for poppy agriculture, which are
also linked to political insecurity.
We have been doing a lot to attempt reducing the amount of opium exports from
Afghanistan farms, but we must do more if we want to make an impact. To tackle the
opium trade head-on, I have devised four recommendations for you to consider. Each
recommendation is slightly different and alters some current policies we have or that we
have tried in the past.
I.
II.
III.

Develop a more efficient and honest central government in Kabul.

Fund alternative crops for Afghan farmers.
Reduce the demand for mind-altering drugs in the Western world to
diminish the amount of production in Afghanistan.

Mark Fowler N00667049

Real World Policy
Professor Soderberg
Final Paper Outline
IV. Build a collective international agreement to terminate opium production in
Afghanistan.
Recommendations
I. Develop a more efficient and honest central government in Kabul

The United States has been struggling to keep the drug trade under control
domestically, much less have a global impact. We have known that Afghanistan has been
the leader in opium trades for decades. Withdrawing troops from Afghanistan will only
make it more difficult for us to keep an eye on Kabul in hopes of repairing it into a fully
functional government.
We need to support and encourage more Afghan law enforcement activities.
Increasing an interest in Kabul economic chambers and businesses will bring money in
that opium has been providing outside of the capital. Last year alone, the United Nations
Office on Drugs and Crime stated that opium trades accounted for an alarming 14 percent
of the nations GDP.
Create legislation that strictly enforces the growing and trading of opium
and other strong drugs.
The government in Kabul is still very weak. Afghanistan has been continually
depended on foreign donors for support and their cooperation in dealing with their drug
problems. The law enforcement in Kabul is fragile and ill equipped to handle the opium
trade since theyre still primary concern is still keeping the government out of Taliban
control. You addressed in the Presidential Determination on Major Drug Transit or
Major Illicit Drug Producing Countries for FY 2014 that Afghanistan was still a main
priority and that we needed to continue to invest in counternarcotic programs. This needs
to be implemented immediately, and we need to bring these programs into the
mainstream of social and economic development. There are remains of past restoration
and development projects scattered throughout the Middle East, but nowhere as faulty as
Afghanistan. Law enforcement is more concerned with maintaining Kabul and keeping it
out of the Talibans control than they are about opium trades. It is difficult to predict that
by reducing the amount of opium exports will make the country vulnerable to Taliban
influence again, but it is a risk we can take if we are careful and work with Kabul.
Create programs that will provide incentives for farmers to leave the drug
industry.
A current U.S. policy towards the control of opium fields is complete eradication.
Not only will that create more tension in the region, it could spur a terrorist backlash
from criminal aggregates. In 2008, tensions between Iran and Afghanistan rose after the
eradication of farms in the south. Armed men and gunfire swiftly followed the smuggling
of drugs across borders, and many were shot and/or killed in the process. This cannot be
our best policy towards the opium farmers.
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has funded
programs in the past designed to promote economic growth and a resource for farmers
that will pledge to end the production and cultivation of illicit drugs. We should help

Mark Fowler N00667049

Real World Policy
Professor Soderberg
Final Paper Outline
Kabul enforce programs that will assist the economic wellbeing of farmers that want to
use their land for an alternative crop. If Kabul offered an incentive such as a fund or land
grant to these farmers, maybe that
We also need to push the Afghan government to create legislation that completely
prohibits the growing and trading of illicit drugs. We need to be sure that they
incorporate and enforce the current ban as well as include the restriction of neighboring
countries, such as Pakistan, to import through Kabul. The farmers will be losing a
significant amount of income once Kabuls counternarcotic programs are up and running.
My second recommendation touches on how we can keep agriculture a moneymaking
industry in Afghanistan.
Fund alternative crops for Afghan farmers.
The U.S. should participate in more counternarcotic programs that diminish illicit
drug farms throughout Afghanistan. One of which I mentioned was a program in Kabul
that could provide incentives to farmers for planting new crops. We could also push the
Afghans to administer more government to southern Afghanistan. There is valuable land
for crops in Helmand, Farah, Nimroz, and Kandahar that could be used to support more
of their legal exports including fruits and nuts, wool, cotton, and hides.
The State Department understands that opium is a very easy crop to maintain and
harvest. Its cheap, widely available, and very profitable that it attracts even the upper
class of farmers to participate. There is no doubt that the dazzling profit allows criminals
to generate handsome revenue, so we need to find a way to combat that attraction into a
legal occupation that is both appealing and rewarding.
II.

Invest money in the Afghan textile industry.

We could allocate more money in Kabul to the textile industry. It would benefit
Afghanistan substantially as well as creating more jobs and training opportunities. For
example, Afghan Esari rugs are beautiful commodities that are known around the world
for their stunning design and elegant style. An authentic rug can cost anywhere from
$1,000-$4,000, and considering the materials used, a business could make a pretty profit
from producing multiple rugs to sell in the market. Not only are the rugs a legal trading
item, they require labor that could create more jobs in the private sector. However, many
Afghan rugs are woven by Afghan refugees residing in Iran and Pakistan. We could
localize the product and bring it back to Afghanistan. Currently, the Herat province in
western Afghanistan is the most prominent rug-making region, producing famous oriental
rugs called Shindand or Adraskan, named after local Afghan towns. Encourage the
government in Kabul to invest more money in Herat and the textile industry to see an
economic growth that will pull away from the opium trades.
However, there is a downside to investing in other industries. When we diminish
the crops from farmers in the south, we are taking away a large amount of income from
these criminal farmers. We need to make sure that these farmers are not interested in
joining a rebellious terrorist organization in revolt of our intrusion. I suggest
implementing this after we have pushed Kabul to enforce harsher restriction on opium
poppy and other illicit drug farming.

Mark Fowler N00667049

Real World Policy
Professor Soderberg
Final Paper Outline
By helping to encourage a new economic shift in Afghanistans current transition
period, we could promise to import more goods from them such as nuts, wool, and
cotton. With a stronger global presence in their agricultural sector, it will be more
attractive to farmers to legally make a profit and not risk their safety in the drug trade.
We will benefit as well by bolstering our image in the region. Many Afghans in Kabul
are against the drug trades. By increasing our interest in the riddance of their drug
traffickers in the south, we can repair our image to not only Afghanistan, but other
Middle Eastern countries as well.
Reduce the demand for mind-altering drugs in the Western world to
diminish the amount of production in Afghanistan.
The UNODC predicts that roughly 315 million people use illicit drugs around the
world. The Afghan drug trade is not thriving just by local consumers. The trafficking of
opium and other illicit drugs into other countries is where Afghan opium farmers are
profiting. Today, western cultures are straying away from the prohibition of illegal drugs
and leaning more towards liberty. The movement to legalize more illicit drugs in the
U.S. for recreational use has spurred a more choice oriented approach to citizens.
Although the legalization of marijuana in Colorado and other states is not detrimental,
political spectators are starting to question how far will it go.
III.

Strengthen our U.S. Customs and Border Control.

Opium trades are making it into the U.S. via a black market. We have held
special missions in the past to eradicate poppy fields in Afghanistan and encourage
counternarcotic programs in Kabul, but have yet to address that opium is continuing to
make its way over our border. We are aware that opium has been trafficked in from
Mexico, but how is it still becoming an urgent problem?
We need to invest in spending more time and money on training our coast guard,
border control, and customs to strengthen our security and monitoring systems for
incoming goods.
Build a collective international agreement to terminate opium production in
Afghanistan.
In 1912, the First International Opium Conference was hosted. In this meeting,
Germany, the U.S., China, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands,
Persia, Portugal, Russia, and Siam came together to discuss a solution to the growing
opium trades from Asia and the Middle East. The meeting resulted in the International
Opium Convention, officially registered to the League of Nations Treaty Series on
January 23, 1922. This convention regulated the trade of opium and restricted it in
certain countries.
The convention was superseded in 1961 by an international treaty named the
Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs. This list went on to include more drugs but failed
to incorporate modern drug trafficking routes and updates to opium links. More recently,
opium was put on the back burner for a few years under Taliban control so it wasnt a
large concern to the U.S.
IV.

Mark Fowler N00667049

Real World Policy
Professor Soderberg
Final Paper Outline
Revise the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs from 1961.
The UNODC states that poppy plant production will remain active if not
augmented after the removal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. The rise in opium imports
could be detrimental to Afghanistans future development and growth. Most opium
fields are in outlying lands where there is very little to no government control. We need
to revise the treaty and include Kabul in the convention. If Kabul joins us as an ally to
this treaty, we may be able to enforce the restriction of growing opium on a more global
scale.
However, we must be careful and be sure not to finger point in this situation.
Kabul is still a very sensitive capital. The government is fragile and still needs much
work. Afghan lawmakers have launched a campaign to eradicate poppy fields, but have
only been able to successfully terminate a mere 7,000 of over 200,000. Along with
enforcing more legislation in Kabul, we must also work with the international community
to combat this problem. By adding them to the list of signers on this convention, we can
step in and join forces with the law enforcement and put an end to the poppy fields.

Sources
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/doug-bandow/end-the-internationaldru_b_6165450.html

Mark Fowler N00667049

Real World Policy
Professor Soderberg
Final Paper Outline
http://rt.com/op-edge/afghanistan-heroin-production-un-779/
CRS Reports
o Afghanistan: Drug Trafficking and the 2014 Transition
o International Drug Trade and U.S. Foreign Policy
o

Afghanistans Path to Reconstruction: Obstacles, Challenges, and Issues

for Congress

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/13/afghanistan-record-opium-croppoppies-un

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/11/14/245040114/afghan-farmersopium-is-the-only-way-to-make-a-living

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/world/asia/drug-traffic-remains-as-us-nearsafghanistan-exit.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/opium-economy-4206

http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/bulletin/bulletin_1954-0101_1_page002.html

http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/bulletin/bulletin_1962-0101_1_page007.html

http://www.incb.org