Mason-Dixon

Polling & Research

Washington, DC 202.548.2680
Jacksonville, FL 904.261.2444

MASON-DIXON FLORIDA POLL

APRIL 2015
BUSH & RUBIO BOTH LEAD CLINTON IN FLORIDA

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ________?

FAVORABLE
UNFAVORABLE
NEUTRAL
DON'T RECOGNIZE

Marco Rubio
46%
27%
25%
2%

Jeb Bush
45%
31%
23%
1%

Hillary Clinton
41%
39%
19%
1%

ANALYSIS
By: J. Bradford Coker, Managing Director
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
2015, All Rights Reserved

Both leading Republican candidates from the Sunshine State now lead Democrat Hillary Clinton in
Florida. Statewide, former governor Jeb Bush leads Clinton 47%-43% and Senator Marco Rubio,
who trailed Clinton in January, has a slightly larger 49%-43% advantage.
Predictably, support divides sharply along partisan lines, with Bush and Rubio holding strong leads
among Republican voters and Clinton well ahead among Democrats. Bush and Rubio are ahead
because both are running stronger with independents.
The gender gap, which Clinton hopes to exploit in her quest to become the first female president, is
present. However, that gap exposes that her deficit among men is a stronger force than her
advantage among women.
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Mason-Dixon
Polling & Research

Washington, DC 202.548.2680
Jacksonville, FL 904.261.2444

Clintons early campaign struggles have made some Democratic leaders nervous and there is
evidence to support that it has trickled down to rank and file party voters. Among registered
Democrats, only 39% said they will definitely vote for her in the primary election, while 40% would
give strong consideration to another Democratic candidate and 12% would definitely vote against
Clinton in the primary.

QUESTION: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote
if the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Jeb Bush, the Republican?

CLINTON
STATE
REGION
North Florida
Central Florida
Tampa Bay
Southwest Florida
Southeast Florida
SEX
Men
Women
AGE
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
RACE/
ETHNICITY
White
Black
Hispanic
PARTY
REGISTRATION
Democrat
Republican
Independent

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43%
CLINTON
33%
43%
42%
37%
52%
CLINTON
39%
46%
CLINTON
46%
45%
45%
38%

CLINTON
32%
92%
45%

CLINTON
79%
8%
36%

BUSH
47%

UNDECIDED
10%

BUSH UNDECIDED
55%
50%
45%
55%
38%
BUSH
54%
42%
BUSH
40%
46%
48%
51%

BUSH
57%
5%
38%

BUSH
14%
83%
46%

12%
7%
13%
8%
10%
UNDECIDED
7%
12%
UNDECIDED
14%
9%
7%
11%

UNDECIDED
11%
3%
17%

UNDECIDED
7%
9%
18%

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Mason-Dixon
Polling & Research

Washington, DC 202.548.2680
Jacksonville, FL 904.261.2444

QUESTION: If the 2016 presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote if
the candidates were Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Marco Rubio, the Republican?

STATE
REGION
North Florida
Central Florida
Tampa Bay
Southwest Florida
Southeast Florida
SEX
Men
Women
AGE
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
RACE/ETHNICITY
White
Black
Hispanic
PARTY REGISTRATION
Democrat
Republican
Independent

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CLINTON

RUBIO

UNDECIDED

43%

49%

8%

CLINTON

RUBIO

UNDECIDED

35%
40%
43%
36%
53%
CLINTON
38%
49%
CLINTON
47%
45%
43%
39%
CLINTON
34%
84%
46%

57%
52%
46%
58%
40%
RUBIO
57%
41%
RUBIO
43%
47%
52%
51%
RUBIO
58%
7%
45%

CLINTON

RUBIO

75%
9%
39%

16%
85%
48%

8%
8%
11%
6%
7%
UNDECIDED
5%
10%
UNDECIDED
10%
8%
5%
10%
UNDECIDED
8%
9%
9%
UNDECIDED
9%
6%
13%

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Mason-Dixon
Polling & Research

Washington, DC 202.548.2680
Jacksonville, FL 904.261.2444

*** 400 REGISTERED DEMOCRATS ***

QUESTION: Hillary Clinton is the only announced candidate for the Democratic presidential
nomination. Looking ahead, if she is opposed by another Democrat in the primary election, will
you definitely vote for Clinton, will you consider voting for another Democrat or would you
definitely vote for another Democrat in the primary?
DEFINITE CLINTON
CONSIDER OTHER DEMOCRAT
VOTE FOR OTHER DEMOCRAT
NOT SURE

39%
40%
12%
9%

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from April 14
through April 16, 2015. A total of 625 registered Florida voters were interviewed statewide by
telephone.
Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of
telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection
of the state. Those interviewed on cell phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers.
Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than 4
percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall
within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a
gender or age grouping.
This section also contains an over-sampling to include 400 registered Democratic voters. These
additional voters were only asked the questions related to the Democratic primary election. They were
not included in the general election section. The margin for error on this Democratic voters sample is
no more that 5%.

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