Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Weekly Review

Index & Volume Chart

FCCL

90.01

PTC

60.29

BAFL

50.12

14.0%

300,000

25,000

12.0%

24,900

10.0%

24,800

8.0%

24,700

6.0%

24,600

4.0%

24,500

2.0%

24,871
24,801

250,000
24,588

200,000

24,445

24,402

ENGRO

41.23

150,000

MLCF

34.73

100,000

24,400

0.0%

24,300

2.0%

24,200

4.0%

50,000
26,000

700

24,100
2-Dec

3-Dec

4-Dec

5-Dec

6-Dec

25,000

600

24,000
500

23,000
22,000

400

21,000
300

20,000
19,000

200

18,000
100

17,000

Volume (LHS)

Oct-13

Nov-13

Aug-13

Jun-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

16,000
Dec-12

Ready Volume (LHS)

KSE100 Index (RHS)

DAWH

Volum e (m n)

(Index)

NCL

Sym bol

Universe Gainers & Losers

(Shrs'000)

EPCL

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

KAPCO

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
194.33
Last week
133.43
Change
45.64%

SHEL

US$bn
55.49
54.14
2.48%

FFC

PkRbn
6,013.66
5,874.54
2.37%

LOTCHEM

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 41,535.13 18,448.49
Last week 40,669.34 18,010.72
Change
2.13%
2.43%

AKBL

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 24,870.55 18,624.99
Last week 24,302.19 18,246.01
Change
2.34%
2.08%

The KSE-100 Index gained 2.34%WoW to close at 24,871 points while it breached
the 25,000 points mark during intraday trading on the last trading day. Notably, average daily traded volumes picked up considerably during the week to 194mn shares,
signaling revived investor confidence in the market despite deteriorating macro indicators. Key news flows during the week included 1) the government approved 28
construction and development projects worth PkR245bn, 2) a financial advisor for
conducting privatization of 31 PSEs was hired by the government, 3) the ECC held
back the decision to announce the gas load management program for winters, 4)
some EU countries voted against the GSP Plus status to be clubbed together for
beneficiary countries, including Pakistan, 5) the MPNR suggested removal of
deemed duty on HSD for refineries, and 6) the government sought early disbursement of CSF funds from USA amid swiftly deteriorating foreign exchange reserves.
Top gainers within the AKD Universe during the week included HCAR (+12.7%
WoW), ICI (+7.9%WoW), AKBL (+6.4%WoW), LOTCHEM (+5.6%WoW) and FFC
(5.4%WoW). Top losers during the week were DAWH (-3.4%WoW), NCL (-2.9%
WoW), EPCL (-1.3%WoW), KAPCO (-1.0%WoW) and SHEL (-0.9%WoW). Volumes
were led by FCCL (90.01mn), PTC (60.29mn), BAFL (50.12mn), ENGRO (41.23mn)
and MLCF (34.73mn).

ICI

research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

HCAR

AKD Research

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

6 December 2013

Source: KSE & AKD Research

Outlook
While macro weaknesses could keep performance of sectors vulnerable to currency
devaluation and interest hikes, further valuation expansion of the broader market
could emanate from continued positive earnings momentum going forward, where
we prefer selected stocks in the Oil and Gas, Banking, Power and Textile sectors.

KSE-100 Index

Important disclosures includ-

Important disclosures ing investment banking

relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, inves-

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2013 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Dec 06, 2013

Cement Sector: Nov13 Cement Dispatches, (December 06, 2013)

25,003
24,974
24,945
24,916
24,887
24,858
24,829
16:33

15:48

15:04

14:20

13:37

12:55

12:12

11:28

9:59

10:44

9:15

24,800

Dec 05, 2013

24,825
24,780
24,735
24,690
24,645

Cement dispatches for Nov'13 have reportedly clocked in at 2.7mn tons posting a subdued growth of 3%YoY as compared to 2.6mn tons in Nov'12. In this regard, while domestic dispatches displayed strong growth of 9%YoY to clock in at 2.1mn tons, export
dispatches posted the eighth consecutive month of YoY decline, clocking in at 601k
tons (-13%YoY). Going forward, while we expect sequential growth to remain subdued
during the Dec- Feb period due to the onset of winter in the North, we may witness YoY
growth in the coming months led by an increase in local demand. On the pricing front,
THCCL and POWER recently increased retail prices in the South region by PkR15/bag,
an increase of 3%. In this regard we believe competitors will likely follow with a similar
increase in prices in the South as well as the North in two phases (PkR15/bag likely in
Dec'13 and a further PkR10/bag increase in the new calendar year). At current levels,
we have a Buy rating on DGKC (FY14F P/E: 6.0x) where our target price of PkR108/
share offers 38% upside.
Pakistan Market: Regulatory front gaining importance, (December 05, 2013)

24,600
24,555
24,510
24,465
15:35

14:58

14:21

13:45

13:08

12:32

11:56

11:19

10:43

9:30

10:06

24,420

Dec 04, 2013

24,772
24,728
24,684
24,640
24,596

In recent write-ups, we had indicated the likelihood of significant regulatory developments in the coming few months. In this regard, key sectors likely to share limelight
include OMCs, Refineries, Pharmaceuticals, Fertilizers, Textiles and Autos. Considering there is space before the next round of quarterly results, regulatory as well as corporate developments are likely to be key drivers for near term market performance.
While some potential adverse developments (e.g. deemed duty elimination for refineries/opposition to GSP Plus for Pakistan) may not materialize in our view, we do see a
mixed bag for Autos (possible increase in import age limit) and Pharmas (dragged out
negotiations over price hike). Outlook for these regulatory developments are discussed
in today's Daily.
FFBL: DAP in the spotlight, (December 04, 2013)

24,552

We expect FFBL to post a strong 38%YoY earnings growth in CY13 (EPS: PkR6.4) on
the back of 13%YoY higher DAP production during the year, where the management
target of 725k tons for the year is 75k tons higher than the company's design capacity
of 650k tons. However, risks to our estimates arise from the government's decision on
the duration of winter gas load management, where a complete suspension of gas in
Dec'13 wipes off our CY13 earnings estimates for the company by 11%. Risks to future
earnings also arise from the proposed gas tariff rationalization, where every PkR100/
mmbtu increase in feedstock tariff results in a PkR110/bag cost hike for urea and
PkR40/bag for DAP. While FFBL's stock price has gained 9x% in 4QCY13TD, it still
trades at a discount to peer CY13F P/E of 7.0x. At current levels, FFBL provides upside
of 18% to our TP of PkR49/share with a CY14F D/Y of 13.8%. Accumulate!

24,508
24,464
14:59

14:22

13:46

13:10

12:33

11:56

11:20

10:43

9:30

10:06

24,420

Dec 03, 2013

24,611
24,589
24,567
24,545
24,523
24,501

Nov13 CPI Review & Outlook! (December 03, 2013)

24,479
24,457
15:15

14:25

13:36

12:47

11:58

11:09

9:30

10:19

24,435

Dec 02, 2013

24,459
24,439
24,419
24,399
24,379
24,359
24,339
24,319
15:34

14:47

14:02

13:17

12:31

11:46

11:01

9:30

10:15

24,299

Nov'13 CPI has risen by 1.27%MoM to clock in at 10.9%YoY, higher than consensus
expectations. As a result, 5MFY14 average CPI has registered at 8.8%YoY vs. 8.4%
YoY during the same period last year. The steep sequential rise in inflationary pressures has come on the back of increase in Food inflation (particularly perishable food
items up 43%YoY/12%MoM), 2) second round impact of increase in electricity tariffs
and 3) inflationary expectations. Similarly, Core inflation maintained its upward trajectory to come in at 9.2%YoY in Nov'13 vs. 8.8%YoY in Nov'12. Going forward, CPI could
continue to register in double digits across the rest of the fiscal year which may push
the FY14 CPI average above 10%. As a result, we believe the interest rate hike cycle is
set to continue particularly in the backdrop of currency weakness. In this regard, while
we believe the market has largely priced in a rising interest rate environment, vindicated by the KSE-100's rebound yesterday after an initial kneejerk reaction to high CPI,
we advocate a more balanced approach at current levels. Our preferred plays include
NML, DGKC, ICI, UBL, NBP, HUBC and KAPCO.

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

Pakistan Market: Nov13 review & outlook, (December 02, 2013)
The KSE-100 Index gained a strong 6.7% in Nov'13 which turned out to be the second
best month for Pakistan equities after a stellar 15.0% return in May13. This brings
11MCY13 returns to 43.8%, a run rate at which the robust 49.0% returned in CY12 may
even be exceeded. Notwithstanding that this was a holiday shortened month, Nov'13
saw a spate of corporate developments particularly for Textiles (GSP Plus), Telecom
(action against grey traffic) and Pharmaceuticals (anticipated drug price increase). At
the same time, the market welcomed political stability (smooth transfer of command in
the Army and Judiciary) alongside a reduction in geopolitical tension following the Geneva Deal on Iran's nuclear program. As such, investors were able to shrug off deteriorating macros, particularly the continued slippage in fx reserves, unabated currency
weakness and interest rate hikes. That said, macroeconomic concerns coupled with a
dry up in corporate developments ahead of results season could potentially come to the
fore in Dec'13 and stall market performance. Within this backdrop, our recommended
stocks include a blend of growth (NML, DGKC, FATIMA) and high D/Y (HUBC, KAPCO, NBP, UBL).

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

Major World Indices Performance

EPSGrowth
Pakistan
21%
Indonesia
17%
Malaysia
16%
Philippines
10%
Vitenam
7%
India
20%
China
13%

PE(x)
8.42
12.11
12.49
15.56
16.29
12.98
8.70

Country

BloombergCode

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

DivdYld
6.13
2.40
3.27
2.43
n.a
1.86
3.37

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

ROE
22.31
18.64
13.61
13.72
17.38
16.87
13.84

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

6Dec13

29Nov13

24,944
5,810
1,358
4,181
1,827
6,015
510
23,743
3,114
21,105
9,761
20,993
2,237
1,785
15,822
4,033
6,526
9,136
10,389
3,940
3,013
7,765
6,769
8,244
998
581

24,302
5,775
1,371
4,256
1,813
6,209
508
23,881
3,176
21,971
10,064
20,792
2,221
1,806
16,086
4,060
6,651
9,405
10,375
3,850
2,946
7,785
6,726
8,325
1,018
582

WoW

CYTD

2.64%
47.55%
0.61%
2.96%
0.93%
2.41%
1.78%
3.15%
0.79%
8.17%
3.12%
3.48%
0.46%
23.30%
0.58%
4.79%
1.96%
1.67%
3.94%
3.99%
3.01%
3.48%
0.97%
8.06%
0.75%
1.41%
1.15%
25.16%
1.65%
20.74%
0.66%
33.57%
1.87%
10.65%
2.86%
20.01%
0.14%
24.29%
2.33%
49.75%
2.29%
85.72%
0.26%
30.85%
0.64%
17.50%
0.98%
21.21%
1.95%
5.38%
0.28%
18.53%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

6Dec13

29Nov13

80.322

80.680

USD/PkR

108.395

108.471

USD/JPY

102.170

103.0
101.0
99.0
97.0

PkR/US$ Trend

WoW

CYTD

0.358

0.44%

0.69%

0.076

0.07%

11.59%

102.440

0.270

0.26%

17.78%

EUR/USD

1.367

1.359

0.008

0.56%

3.59%

GBP/USD

1.636

1.637

0.001

0.04%

0.65%

AUD/USD

0.906

0.911

0.005

0.52%

12.82%

NZD/USD

0.819

0.812

0.007

0.82%

1.17%
2.11%

109.0

DollarIndex

107.0
105.0

Dec-13

Oct-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Dec-12

95.0

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

CHF/USD

0.896

0.906

0.010

1.11%

CAD/USD

1.066

1.061

0.004

0.39%

7.40%

USD/KRW

1,058

1,058

0.300

0.03%

0.61%

CNY/USD

6.083

6.094

0.011

2.37%
0.19%
Source: Bloomberg

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index
305
300
295
290
285

SPOT

Units

6Dec13

29Nov13

WoW

CYTD

TRJCRB

Points

277.62

274.88

1.00%

5.89%

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

97.23

92.72

4.86%

5.89%

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

111.29

110.57

0.65%

0.58%

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

3.9792

3.7905

4.98%

15.67%

Cotton

USd/Pound

85.55

84.9

0.77%

3.13%

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1227.86

1253.49

2.04%

26.71%

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

19.4865

19.99

2.52%

35.78%

Copper

US$/MT

7064.75

7054.25

0.15%

10.65%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1354.3

1362.2

0.58%

12.02%

Coal

US$/MT

83.35

83.35

0.00%

8.05%

280
275

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

Apr-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Feb-13

Dec-12

270

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

1.60

(%)
12.0

1.50

10.0

1.40

8.0
6.0

1.30

4.0

1.20

2.0

1.10

(2.0)

1.00

(4.0)

0.90

FIPI Flows for the week

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$mn)
4.00

(US$'000)
12,000

10,771

Co., 2.88

Bank/DFI,
2.52

2.00

10,000
8,000

NBFC, 4.70

6,000

4,531

(2.00)

4,000
2,000

Jun-13

0.80
Dec-12

Oct-13

Feb-13

Jun-12

Nov-11

Mar-11

Aug-10

Dec-09

Apr-09

Sep-08

Jan-08

Jun-07

(6.0)

Feb-13

Others,
(0.60)

Ind., 0.10

(4.00)

1,266

(6.00)

(2,000)

(8.00)

(4,000)
(4,005)
(6,000)
(6,352)

(8,000)
2-Dec

3-Dec

4-Dec

(10.00)

M.Funds,
(11.11)

(12.00)
5-Dec

6-Dec

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

50%
40%

70%

KSE100

60%

M SCI EM

50%

M SCI FM

40%

30%

30%
20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

-10%

0%
-20%
Mar-13

Jun-13

KSE- All Share Index

Sep-13

Dec-13

AKD Universe

Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13

-10%
Dec-12

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

6Dec13
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
8.42
24.32
25.20
38.76
57.68

2012A
9.30
10.52
10.97
44.64
59.02

2013F
10.11
8.71
15.55
48.88
51.86

2014F
12.21
20.77
24.60
54.74
51.60

2015F
14.11
15.51
16.68
61.45
49.32

12.22
2.65
13.11
3.18
19.43
8.18
4.72
7.57

11.05
2.30
11.82
2.78
21.02
9.05
5.34
6.69

10.17
2.10
10.23
2.48
10.21
9.83
5.10
5.88

8.42
1.88
8.21
2.15
18.61
11.88
6.13
5.08

7.29
1.67
7.03
1.90
11.27
13.72
6.77
4.50

21.71
4.09
17.34
23.46
14.48
11.20

20.84
3.89
17.28
21.84
12.98
10.55

20.69
4.14
6.24
22.87
14.01
10.80

22.31
4.42
14.01
22.47
13.89
11.44

22.95
4.63
10.33
22.91
14.59
11.98

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
16
12
8

Dec-13

Sep-12

Jul-11

Apr-10

Feb-09

Nov-07

Sep-06

Jul-05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
3.5
2.6
1.7

Dec13

Sep12

Jul11

Apr10

Feb09

Nov07

Sep06

Jul05

0.8

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

Stocks

Symbol

Price

TP

(PkR)

(PkR)

Stance

EPS

(PkR)
12A 13A/F

14F

PE(x)
12A 13A/F

DY

(%)
14F 12A 13A/F 14F 12A13A/F 14F

PB(x)

AutomobileandParts

IndusMotors
INDU
340.5 385.31Accumulate 54.742.7 49.016.28.06.91.61.51.49.47.37.0
PakSuzukiMotors
PSMC
143.7 173.46
Buy
11.924.3 21.7112.15.96.60.70.70.61.73.52.8
Construc onandMaterials

DGKhanCement
DGKC
77.4 105.06
Buy
9.412.6 14.678.36.25.31.00.80.71.93.94.5
Chemicals

EngroPolymerChemicals
EPCL
12.5 16.49
Buy
0.11.11.13 107.911.911.11.31.21.1
ICIPakistanLimited
ICI
205.4 221.00Accumulate 9.79.3 17.6721.322.011.61.91.81.72.72.44.4
Lo ePakistanPTALimited
LOTCHEM 7.0 8.90
Buy
0.00.51.14 n.m14.36.20.90.80.73.610.7
DawoodHerculesLimited
DAWH
54.7 71.83
Buy
2.09.2 13.0726.85.94.21.3 n.a n.a1.8
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FFBL
41.9 49.33Accumulate 4.66.46.639.06.66.33.12.52.510.7 13.114.9
FaujiFer lizerCompany
FFC
113.9 138.62
Buy
16.416.9 16.417.06.86.96.66.05.813.6 14.014.3
Fa maFer lizer
FATIMA 28.6 35.09
Buy
2.94.15.029.87.05.72.11.81.57.07.07.0
FoodProducers

EngroFoodsLimited
EFOODS 93.0 80.92 Reduce 3.41.72.6027.554.435.87.16.25.3
Oil&Gas

Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
OGDC
277.9 265.50 Neutral 21.621.1 27.6112.813.210.14.53.73.02.63.04.1
PakOilfields
POL
493.2 612.57
Buy
50.145.8 59.129.810.88.33.33.43.110.69.19.3
PakistanStateOil
PSO
321.2 333.46 Neutral 36.750.8 75.498.86.34.31.61.31.01.21.13.1
Electricity

HubPowerCo.
HUBC
61.0 77.41
Buy
7.18.19.628.67.56.32.32.12.19.8 13.114.8
KotAdduPowerCompany
KAPCO
61.4 63.00 Neutral 6.98.49.058.97.36.82.32.22.211.2 12.214.3
FixedLineTelecommunica on

PakistanTelecommunica on PTC
30.3 29.71 Neutral 2.23.14.2013.59.97.21.31.31.27.49.9
PersonalGoods

NishatMills
NML
115.5 127.00Accumulate 10.016.6 17.6111.56.96.61.10.80.73.03.54.5
NishatChunianLtd.
NCL
54.8 67.55
Buy
3.511.4 14.5815.74.83.81.81.41.13.03.39.1
Banks

AlliedBankLimited
ABL
90.6 95.03 Neutral 11.410.7 11.007.98.48.24.13.53.135.36.16.6
BankAlFalah
BAFL
25.8 26.95 Neutral 3.43.33.797.67.786.81.21.141.07.75.86.8
HabibBankLimited
HBL
162.8 154.97 Neutral 16.716.3 18.199.810.08.91.61.61.54.25.25.8
MCBBankLimited
MCB
289.7 255.00 Reduce 20.922.2 22.3613.913.013.02.82.62.44.14.85.2
Na onalBankofPakistan
NBP
55.9 62.50Accumulate 7.95.78.017.19.896.980.80.7 0.7110.98.19.8
UnitedBankLtd
UBL
131.5 145.00Accumulate 15.715.0 15.938.48.88.31.61.51.46.56.56.8
Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
6-Dec-13

1M

YTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

24870.55

7.4

9.2

11.6

47.8

47.1

24870.55

16107.89

AGTL
MTL

205.00
482.05

2.3
6.3

-0.3
-12.7

-2.1
-8.9

-11.3
-2.5

-14.0
-6.1

252.79
579.05

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

340.46
143.71

0.3
16.5

1.6
-0.9

3.5
-7.6

28.8
66.6

26.1
64.0

359.00
157.40

262.00
83.92

DGKC
LUCK

77.36
280.49

7.4
7.5

-1.0
17.6

-5.3
44.8

41.6
90.8

41.7
85.1

95.13
282.12

51.03
143.51

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

12.52
205.43
7.00
54.65
154.70
28.59
41.87
113.91

0.6
20.3
3.7
-0.1
16.2
6.7
7.4
3.9

-4.3
15.9
-0.6
-4.7
1.6
17.2
0.9
8.6

-11.8
24.3
-20.1
-6.6
5.3
12.9
1.1
-2.7

14.8
17.4
-4.5
57.3
56.9
7.2
10.2
-0.2

23.7
18.1
-4.8
67.9
68.1
8.3
8.5
-2.8

14.20
209.11
8.89
63.17
181.38
29.02
45.42
120.36

8.68
135.37
6.29
29.24
81.92
21.29
36.90
101.90

93.03

5.5

-10.8

-37.4

0.2

-5.2

162.22

80.37

AICL

102.77

37.0

24.5

19.8

40.4

50.8

106.42

61.09

OGDC
POL
PSO

277.89
493.17
321.20

4.1
5.9
8.9

10.9
0.2
3.3

13.4
-4.5
8.8

47.7
17.0
67.3

44.3
12.7
66.0

280.15
531.92
367.10

183.95
421.13
180.67

HUBC
KAPCO

60.97
61.35

-4.0
0.6

-17.0
-5.0

-2.6
-2.0

33.6
25.6

34.8
24.2

73.42
68.34

43.80
48.52

PTC

30.33

10.8

14.3

34.6

75.3

74.8

30.57

15.44

NCL
NML

54.84
115.49

5.0
18.4

-13.6
17.2

-3.5
11.0

62.1
77.4

56.5
80.9

68.82
115.92

32.91
59.76

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

90.63
13.83
25.82
162.79
25.61
289.67
39.50
55.90
131.54

6.9
27.6
5.0
9.0
12.0
2.6
2.6
7.3
3.6

15.4
1.2
22.1
2.9
25.5
6.6
12.9
11.4
0.0

29.1
-3.5
46.3
45.4
39.2
-4.0
28.0
25.9
20.5

32.9
-4.2
50.8
54.4
34.8
58.4
47.2
27.9
56.9

35.7
-5.7
53.5
52.0
35.9
51.9
45.9
30.2
57.2

92.70
16.25
25.82
173.89
26.16
316.87
40.42
58.30
154.21

55.01
10.76
14.77
88.00
14.61
176.83
24.11
37.66
81.24

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited

EFOODS

Non Life Insurance

Adamjee Insurance
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

T-bill
3M

9.20

9.37

9.42

9.41

9.26

8.93

9.00

9.15

9.47

6M

9.32

9.46

9.44

9.42

9.16

9.01

9.20

9.35

9.68

12M

9.37

9.47

9.46

9.43

9.19

9.03

9.34

9.48

9.81

PIB 10Y

11.99

12.00

11.92

11.25

10.86

11.57

11.97

12.28

12.83

KIBOR 6M

9.43

9.54

9.58

9.60

9.39

9.08

9.15

9.29

9.55

Discount rate

9.50

9.50

9.50

9.50

9.00

9.00

9.00

9.50

9.50

Headline inflation

7.40

6.60

5.80

5.10

5.90

8.26

8.55

7.40

9.10

Core inflation

9.6

9.00

8.70

8.10

7.80

8.20

8.50

8.70

8.40

Food inflation

7.4

6.30

5.50

6.50

7.90

9.20

10.30

7.90

9.80

Inflation

External Indicators
Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

1,835

2,134

2,130

2,175

2,197

2,095

1,996

2,622

1,864

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

3,383

3,687

3,909

4,346

3,940

3,814

3,572

3,791

3,281

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

(1,548)

(1,553)

(1,779)

(2,171)

(1,743)

(1,719)

(1,576)

(1,169)

(1,417)

Home Remittances (LHS) US$ (mn)

1,028

1,119

1,216

1,186

1,165

1,404

1,233

1,283

1,348

Current Account

US$ (mn)

(596)

(513)

(354)

(346)

(163)

46

(575)

(574)

(166)

Deposits

PkR (bn)

6,645

6,777

6,709

6,950

7,316

7,069

7,174

7,125

7,133

Advances

PkR (bn)

3,868

3,873

3,857

3,906

3,869

3,788

3,817

3,831

3,921

Investments

PkR (bn)

3,909

4,024

3,893

3,942

4,129

3,837

3,708

3,873

3,776

Weighted avg lending rate

11.52

11.50

11.42

11.49

11.36

11.28

11.11

11.10

11.10

Weighted avg deposit rate

5.34

5.26

5.23

5.15

5.01

4.97

4.83

4.79

4.90

Spread rate

6.18

6.24

6.19

6.34

6.35

6.31

6.28

6.31

6.20

190,357

153,199

173,268

267,608

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Banking Sector

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

140,264

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

48,743

78,649

48,462

60,982

128,889

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

91,521

111,708

104,737

112,286

138,719

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Reserves (RHS)

US$ (mn)

12,936

12,250

11,812

11,474

11,020

10,287

9,998

9,995

9,525

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

98.16

98.42

98.48

98.52

98.94

101.90

104.51

105.24

106.89

Currency

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

6 December 2013

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Usman Zahid
Anum Dhedhi
Raza Hamdani
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
usman.zahid@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
raza.hamdani@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
E&P, FMCGs & Fertilizer
Pakistan Economy
Fertilizer, Oil Marketing & Power
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS

This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities
Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information,
opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so
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our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to
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publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.
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intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you
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including but not limited to, the participation or investment in commercial banking transaction (including loans) with some or all of the issuers
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Any recipient, other than a U.S. recipient that wishes further information should contact the company.
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