Present Power Scenario and

Future Plan

January,2011
2011
January,

BangladeshPower
PowerDevelopment
DevelopmentBoard
Board
Bangladesh
1

Present Power
Generation
Scenario
2

Bangladeshs Power Sector: At a Glance (FY 2010)

Electricity Growth

: 10 % in FY-2010 (Av. 7 % since 1990)

Generation Capacity

: 5826 MW (December 31, 2011)

Total Consumers

: 12 Million

Transmission Lines

: 8,500 km

Distribution Lines

: 2,70,000 km

Distribution Losses

: 13.1 %

Per Capita Generation

: 236 kWh (incl. Captive)

Access to Electricity

: 48.5 %

Present Generation Capacity (January, 2011)

Public Sector
SL.
1.
2.
3.

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Generation Capacity (MW)

BPDB
APSCL
EGCB

2620
606
255
Subtotal

3481 (59 %)

Subtotal

1271
99
226
168
441
250
2455 (41 %)

Private Sector
IPPs
SIPPs (BPDB)
SIPPs (REB)
15 YR. Rental
3/5 YR. Rental
Quick Rental

Total

5936

Considering 15-20 % Maintenance and Forced Outage, Available Generation

4
Capacity is in the range of 4600 5000 MW without fuel constraint

Power Generation Capacity in Private Sector

Sl.
No.

Name of Power Station

Unit
Type

Commissioning
date
(Year)
2001
2001

Type of
Fuel

Generation
Capacity
(MW)

Gas
Gas

235
125

2002

Gas

450

1999

Gas

110

2000
2006

Gas
Gas

175

Diesel
Engine

1998

F. Oil

106

Haripur Power Ltd.

CT
ST CC

Meghnaghat Power

NEPC

RPCL

KPCL BMPP

WESTMONT (WPL)

CT

1999

Gas

70

SIPP (13 Plant)

CT

2007-2009

Gas

325

Rental -15 Years (4 Plant)

CT

2008-2009

Gas

168

Rental -3/5 Years (10 Plant)

CT

2008-2010

Gas

691

Ltd.

TOTAL (33 operators)

CT
ST CC
Gas
Engine
CT
ST CC

2,455
5

Demand Supply Situation

Generation on Jan 6, 2009: 3268 MW (Capacity- 4931 MW)
Generation: 4000 4600 MW (Capacity- 5936 MW)
Highest so far: 4699 MW ( 20 August 2010)
Gas shortage causes 500 - 700 MW less Power Generation
Peak Demand: 6000 MW (with DSM)
Load shedding up to 1500 MW during hot summer days (with DSM)
Shortage and unreliable power supply has constrained
economic growth
6

Age of Power Plants

Age Group
(Years)

Installed
Capacity
(MW)

40 +
31 40
21 30
11 20
01 10

Total

80
305
1105
1378
3068
5936

25 % of Capacity have more than 20 Years life

7

Load Curve on August 20, 2010 (so far Maximum

5500
5000

Peak)

4699 MW (9:00 PM)

4692 MW (4:00 AM)

SHORTAGE

4500

OIL

3911 MW (12:00 Noon)

4000

P.GEN(OIL).

Hydro
COAL

3500

MW

3000
PRIVATE GEN.(GAS)

2500
2000
1500
1000

GAS

500
0
0
0:0

0
2:0

0
4:0

0
6:0

0
8:0

: 00
10

: 00
12

: 00
14

: 00
16

: 00
18

: 00
20

: 00
22

: 00
24

Hour

GAS

PR+En.Curve!$V$33 GEN. (GAS)

Energy Generation: 99.13 M kWh

P.GEN(OIL).

COAL

Hydro

OIL

SHORTAGE

Energy Not Served: 3.13 M kWh

Energy Generation by Fuel Type in FY 2010

FO
3.00%

Diesel
1.76%

Hydro
2.50%

Coal
3.53%

Gas
89.21%

Energy Generation(FY10): 29,247 Million Unit

Energy Generation July-Sept. 10): 7,795 Million Unit

Energy Growth in FY10 is about 10 %

High Dependence on Gas
9

Expected Fuel Mix in FY 2013

Hydro
2.50%
Diesel
3.00%

Coal
3.50%

FO
17.00%

GAS
74.00%

GAS

FO

Diesel

Hydro

Coal

Estimated Energy Generation in FY15: 38,844 Million Unit

10

Planning Perspective

Primary Fuel Supply Scenario

Gas: No significant gas discovery in recent years; off shore
and on shore gas exploration initiatives & increased
reserves in present fields may change the present scenario

Coal: Near term option; Indigenous or Imported; Base Load;

Oil: Volatile market; High price; For peaking duty
LNG: Necessary to ensure secure and reliable gas supply
Nuclear: Safe technology; No pollution; Expected to be future
Base Load option

12

Generation Expansion Plan

Immediate: 6 -12 Months
- Rental Plants (liquid fuel)

Short term: 18 - 24 Months

- Peaking Plants (liquid fuel)

Medium term: 3 - 5 years

- Combined Cycle Plants (Gas or dual fuel)
- Peaking Plant (Gas or dual fuel)
- Coal fired steam plants

Long term: beyond 5 years

- LNG based Combined Cycle Plants

- Domestic/Imported Coal Power Plant
- Gas/Oil based Peaking Plant
- Nuclear Power Plant
- Renewable Energy
13

Power Generation Addition From Jan 09 to Dec 10

Gen Addition Jan 09 Dec 09

Gen Addition Jan 10 Nov 10

: 356 MW
: 775 MW

Total Gen. Addition (Jan 09 Dec 10): 1131 MW

Details

14

Power Generation Projects up to 2016

Calendar Year Wise Projects Completion (From 2010 to 2016)
YEAR

2010
(MW)
Commissioned

2011
(MW)

2012
(MW)

2013
(MW)

2014
(MW)

2015
(MW)

2016
(MW)

TOTAL
(MW)

Public

255

851

838

1040

1270

450

1500

6204

Private

270

105

1072

1311

1123

1900

1300

7081

Quick
Rental

250

1185

Total

775

2141

1435

1910

2351

2393

2350 2800 14,720

Public Sector : 6204 MW (comm:255 MW, u/c: 1414 MW, Tender: 1270 MW); (42%)
Private Sector : 8516 MW (comm:520 MW, u/c: 1290 MW, Tender: 2506 MW); (58%)

15

Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)

January, 2011

Year

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Max.Demand with
6454
DSM (In April)

6765

7518

8349

9268

10283

11405

255

851

838

1040

1270

450

1500

520

1290

1072

1311

1123

1900

1300

83

500
161

1292

128

1033

Gen addition Public Sector

Gen. addition Private Sector
Regional Power Imp

88

Capacity Retired
Gen. Capacity (End of Dec)

5936

7989

9816 12506 13607

15829

17596

NET

5699

7669

9423 12006 13063

15196

16892

Dependable Capacity
(End of Dec)
Max Surplus/Shortfall
(In Summer)

4331

5905

7350

9485

10450

12157

13514

-2123

-860

-168

1136

1182

1874

2109

-33%

-13%

-2%

14%

13%

18%

18%
16

Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year)

January, 2011
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2010

2011

2012

2013

Max.Demand with DSM (In April)

2014

2015

2016

Dependable Capacity (End of Dec)

17

Project Implementation

Successful Contract Signed since Jan 2009

Sl.
No.

Description

No. of
Projects

01.

Rental

Capacity
(MW)
265

02.
03.

Quick Rental
Public Sector

15
14

1435
1204

Total

32

2,904

Out of 2904 MW 410 MW already commissioned (4 projects).

28 Projects with capacity 2494 MW under construction.
Details u/c
19

Projects Under Construction

Sl.
No.

Description

No. of
Projects

01.

Rental

Capacity
(MW)
105

02.
03.

Quick Rental
Public Sector

13
14

1185
1204

Total

28

2,494

Details u/c Pics

20

Projects Under Procurement Process: Contract within Next 6 Months

Sl.
No.

Description

No. of
Projects

01.

Public Sector

Capacity
(MW)
1270

03.

Private Sector
(IPPs)
Total

18

2506

23

3776

21

Fuel Supply
Requirement

Gas Requirement in coming years (MMCFD) include. dual fuel IPPs

Sl.
No

Description
(Gas based power
plants)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

1139

1340

1950 1370

450

1500

750

750

98

33

156

4652

Generation Capacity (MW)

Generation Addition (MW)

Plant Retirement (MW)

Gas Based Generation

(MW)

4652

5693

7000

8844 9692 10142

11486

12236

12966

Gas Required considering

without Retirement
(MMCFD

1217

1553

1809

2175 2392

2471

2735

2867

2999

Gas Required considering

Retirement (MMCFD)

1217

1526

1773

2111 2181

2260

2524

2656

2788

Net Gas Requirement with

considering Retirement &
90 % Plant Availability
(MMCFD)

1095

1373

1596

1900 1963

2034

2272

2390

2509

106

522

Gas Requirement will be nearly 3 fold from now by 2018

At least 60 % allocation needed for Power Generation
Enhanced on/off shore exploration activities required to
ensure gas supply to power plants

23

Requirement of Liquid Fuels for upcoming Power

Plant
Projects
Monthly HSD Requirement
Sl.
No.

Mode of
Transport

Sep. 2010
(M.Ton)

Dec. 2010
(M.Ton)

July 2011
(M.Ton)

Dec. 2011
(M.Ton)

Railway

3,023

8,603

16,651

16,651

River way

12,502

13,055

25,268

25,268

15,525

21,658

41,919

41,919

Total
Monthly HFO Requirement

Sl.
No.

Mode of
Transport

Sep. 2010
(M.Ton)

Dec. 2010
(M.Ton)

July 2011
(M.Ton)

Dec. 2011
(M.Ton)

Railway

8,356

33,407

River way

9,454

80,139

111,190

9,454

88,495

144,597

Total

24

Financing
Requirement

Estimated Financing Requirement for Public Sector Projects

Description

Total

Investment
(Million US$)

Remarks

GOB

Investment
(Million US$)

BPDB: Public Peaking- 820

MW, Bhola 150, Barapuku 3
rd-250 , Kaptai Solar- 5 MW.
TOTAL: 1225 MW

1600

1150

NWPGC: Siraj 150, Khulna

150, Bhera 360
TOTAL: 660 MW

680

170

Siraj 150 and Khulna 150-ADB

EGCB: Sidd 2X150, Hari 360

TOTAL: 660 MW

680

170

Sidd 2x150- WB and Hari 360- JICA

APSCL: 50 Pk, 150 MW CC,

450 MW: Total- 650 MW
Mixed Sector: RPCL & PDB
JV- 150, RPCL Kodda- 50,
RPCL Raujan-20, Dhaka N-450
MW CC
TOTAL: 670 MW

825

200

Project Financing not confirmed

770

190

Project Financing not confirmed

Total (in Million US $)

4555

1880

1030 M US $ Cost for 820 MW finance from GOB

Bhola- IDB
Bara-250 coal and Solar 5 MW- financing not

confirmed

Bhera 360 - JICA

Total 3865 MW:

1) Lenders commitment so far : 1400 M US $
2) Companies own fund: 450 M US $
3) Rest 825 M US $ yet to be confirmed

26

Estimated Financing Requirement for Private Sector Projects

Description

Total
Investment
(Million US$)

Equity
(Million US$)

Debt
(Million US$)

1760

440

1320

Solar and Wind Projects: 110 MW

(IPP)

200

50

150

( 25 % )

( 75 % )

Combined Cycle and Peaking

Plants in Private Sector: 3175 MW
(IPP)

3800

950

2850

( 25 % )

( 75 % )

2600 MW Coal PPP

4000

1000

3000

( 25 % )

( 75 % )

2440

7320

1600 MW Quick Rental

Total (in Million US $)

9760

Total Financing Requirement: 4555 + 9760 = 14,315 Mill. US $

27

Expected Sources of Fund

Sources of Fund
1.

GOB

2.

Foreign Assistance (Multilateral and Bilateral

Agencies)

3.

Financial Institutions / Banks

4.

Infrastructure financing Company / Energy and Power

Fund (PPP)
Private Sector Equity

5.

Rental Tariff

Tariff offered by Recent Rental Power Plants

Existing Rental Price (Awarded by Caretaker Gov.)
Sl.
No

Description

01.

Khulna 40 MW 3 years Rental

02.

Sikalbaha 550 MW 3 years Rental

Fuel

Tariff:
Non
fuel

Tariff:
Fuel

HSD

2. 58

12.32

14.90

FO

2.11

5.85

7.96

Recent Rental offered price under 530 MW

Bid
Tariff:
Sl.
No

Description

Fuel

Non
fuel

Tariff:
Fuel

Tariff Tk/Kwh at
80% P.F

Tariff Tk/Kwh at
80% P.F

01.

Beramara 110 MW 3 years Rental

HSD

2.35

10.24

12.59

02.

Thakurgaon 50 MW 3 years Rental

HSD

2.39

11.35

13.74

03.

Noapara 100 MW 5 years Rental

FO

1.53

5.76

7.29

04.

Barisal 50 MW 5 years Rental

FO

1.60

5.54

7.14
30

Tariff of Quick Rental Power Plants

Sl.
No

Description

Fuel

Tariff:
Non
fuel

Fuel
Compon
ent

Tariff
Tk/Kwh at
80% P.F

01.

Ghorashal 100 MW ; Aggriko

HSD

2.51

11.88

14.39

02.

Khulna 100 MW; Aggriko

HSD

2.51

11.88

14.39

03.

Siddirgonj 105 MW ; Desh Energy

HSD

2.63

10.72

13.35

04.

Modanganj 102 MW; Summit Power

FO

2.135

5.65

7.785

05.

Kadda, Gazipur 100 MW; IEL Power

FO

2.06

5.72

7.78

06.

Khulna 115 MW; KPCL

FO

2.18

5.60

7.78

07.

Meghnagat PDV 100

FO

2.00

5.76

7.76

08.

Nowapara IFDC40

FO

2.04

5.74

7.78

09.

Keranigong Power Pack 100

FO

2.018

5.766

7.784

10.

ChapainababgonjSinha50

FO

2.10

5.65

7.77

11.

Julda Bangla Trac 100

FO

2.03

5.73

7.76

12.

Kadda, Gazipur Dutch Bangla100

FO

2.065

5.72

7.785

31

Public Sector Peaking Power Plants

Sl.
No

Description

Fuel

Tariff:
Non fuel

Fuel
Component

Tariff
Tk/Kwh at
80% P.F

01.

Gopalganj 100 MW

FO

1.67

5.80

7.47

02.

Faridpur 50 MW

FO

1.65

5.80

7.45

03.

Bera 70 MW

FO

1.51

5.91

7.42

04.

Baghabari 50 MW

FO

2.11

5.54

7.65

05.

Hathazari 100 MW

FO

2.08

5.38

7.46

06.

Dohazari 100 MW

FO

2.18

5.32

7.50

07.

Doudkandi 50 MW

FO

2.36

5.54

7.90

1.95

5.59

7.54

Average Tariff for 520

MW

32

Supply Cost and Bulk

Tariff Requirement

Revenue Requirement and Shortfall with Existing Tariff

Sl
No

Description

Av.
Bulk
Tariff (
Tk / kWh)

Bulk Supply Cost at 33 kV level (Tk / kWh)

FY 10 FY 11

FY 12

FY 13

FY 14

FY 15

2.72

4.41

4.99

4.82

4.68

1.

Per unit cost with

quick Rental

2.

Revenue
Requirement for
Bulk Power

10469 14743

18736

20218

22636

3.

Revenue Earning
with existing tariff

6861

7915

8906

9934

11460

4.

Revenue Shortfall
due to Bulk Power
Management

3,607

6,828

9, 829

10, 284

11, 176

2.37

3.62

TOTAL

41,724

Av. Cost in FY 2015 : 4.68 Tk/kWh

Av. Purchase Cost from Rental: HSD 13.69 Tk/kWh; FO 7.69 Tk/kWh
Un served Energy Cost: 30 Tk/kWh (As per PSMP 2006)
High cost liquid fuel based power plants will get less dispatch (according to merit
order); mostly peaking duty
34

Average Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff Requirement

20-Sep-10
Sl

1
2
3
4
5
6

Description

Bulk Energy
Sales (MU)
Av. Bulk
Supply Cost
Tariff need to
increase (%)
If Increased by
0%
Gap between
Cost and Tariff
Compensation
Required

Av. Bulk
Tariff
(Tk/kWh)

FY 2010

FY 2011 FY 2011
FY 2012 FY 2012
FY 2013 FY 2013
FY 2014 FY 2014
FY 2015 FY 2015 (Jan(July-Dec) (Jan-June) (July-Dec) (Jan-June) (July-Dec) (Jan-June) (July-Dec) (Jan-June) (July-Dec)
June)

25952 13896 15054 16031 17367 18038 19541 20120 21796 23211 25145
2.37

2.72

3.616 3.616 4.414 4.414 4.986 4.986 4.823 4.823 4.681

53%

22%

13%

-3%

4.681

-3%

2.37

2.37

2.37

2.37

2.37

2.37

2.37

2.37

2.37

2.37

1.25

1.25

2.04

2.04

2.62

2.62

2.45

2.45

2.31

2.31

1732

1876

3277

3550

4718

5111

4936

5347

5364

5811

20264
10469
6861
3607

14743
7915
6828

18736
8906
9829

41724
0

20218
9934
10284

22636
11460
11176

35

Average Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff Requirement

Sl

Description

Bulk Energy
Sales (MU)
Av. Bulk
2 Supply Cost
(Tk/kWh)

Av. Bulk FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2014 FY 2015
Tariff(July(Jan(July(Jan(July(Jan(July(Jan(JulyTk/kWh
Dec)
June)
Dec)
June)
Dec)
June)
Dec)
June)
Dec)

25952 13896 15054 16031 17367 18038 19541 20120 21796 23211 25145

Tariff need to
increase (%)

If Increased
4 by 12 % (3
yr.)
Gap between
5 Cost and
Tariff
Compensatio
6 n Required
(Crore Tk)

FY 2015
(JanJune)

2.37

2.72

3.62

3.62

53

4.41

4.41

22

4.99

4.99

13

4.82

4.82

-3

4.68

4.68

-3

2.65

2.97

3.33

3.73

4.18

4.68

4.68

4.68

4.68

4.68

0.96

0.64

1.08

0.69

0.81

0.31

0.15

0.15

0.00

0.00

1336

968

1739 1190 1459

601

293

317

Total Compensation Required in Crore Taka

7919
36

Average Supply Cost and Bulk Tariff Requirement

6.00

5.00

4.68 Taka/kWh

4.00

3.00

2.00

2.37 Taka/kWh

1.00

0.00
FY 2011
(July-Dec)

FY 2011
(Jan-June)

FY 2012
(July-Dec)

FY 2012
(Jan-June)

FY 2013
(July-Dec)

FY 2013
(Jan-June)

Av. Bulk Supply Cost (Tk/kWh)

FY 2014
(July-Dec)

FY 2014
(Jan-June)

FY 2015
(July-Dec)

FY 2015
(Jan-June)

If Increased by 12 % (3 yr.)

37

Thank You