Indices de Produccin Manufacturera y Utilizacin de la Capacidad Instatada de la Industria Argentina, segn el

INDEC
por Eduardo Petazze
00:03:35
Para 2015 se proyecta una caida de la produccin manufacturera de Argentina del 2%, frente a la caida del 2.5% en 2014
En el primer trimestre de 2015 la produccin manufactuera se redujo en 1.9% interanual.
En Marzo 2015 la produccin manufactura declin 1.6% interanual, el vigsimo mes consecutivo de contraccin.
La utilizacin de la capacidad instalada de la industria manufacturera fue del 67.1%, el registro para Marzo ms bajo desde el 2004.
No obstante, se espera para el ao 2015 un nivel de utilizacin de la capacidad instalada similar al ao 2004.
Paa el ao 2016 la tendencia inercial es que contine deteriorndose la actividad industrial.
El INDEC de Argentina publica su Estimador Mensual Industrial (EMI) junto con el porcentaje de Utilizacin de la capacidad instalada en la
industria manufacturera.
ltimos Comunicados de Prensa
Estimador Mensual Industrial (EMI) Marzo 2015 pdf, 10 pginas
Utilizacin de la Capacidad Instalada en la Industria Marzo 2015 pdf, 3 pginas
Los siguientes cuadros, incluyen nuestra proyeccin de los mencionados ndices para el resto del ao 2015

Estimador Mensual Industrial

Manufacturing Production Index NSA 2006=100
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.700
2.000
3.000
5.700
8.400 15.500
4.200
105.122 105.600 102.934 107.021 105.062 106.102 108.006
113.252 107.315 104.891 112.910 102.207 112.196 109.670
113.696 102.979 111.579 117.536 95.388 123.542 117.851
112.105 118.011 109.889 123.952 95.246 126.553 130.272
110.146 119.952 112.385 126.052 91.434 131.420 135.150
117.454 123.818 112.467 126.438 93.789 135.180 137.617
111.507 122.806 111.519 118.709 92.445 135.136 136.780
112.642 122.907 110.909 122.728 92.504 137.976 129.899
104.179 112.614 112.100 118.572 95.134 137.366 126.525
95.767 103.398 113.415 116.194 94.474 137.737 122.416

2006=100
Overall
1
9
10
11
12
NSA
100.000 19.300
4.200 10.800 11.100 15.100
2007
107.561 104.373
107.991 98.295 125.181 109.479
2008
112.927 109.108
116.008 106.623 138.913 112.346
2009
112.999 118.108
119.344 86.415 123.174 113.850
2010
124.013 118.790
127.486 105.637 173.171 122.746
2011
132.133 124.290
139.119 111.906 195.910 139.424
2012
130.593 125.535
139.279 102.129 183.011 137.199
2013
130.313 124.111
147.977 105.565 189.870 131.795
2014
127.007 126.434
148.349 110.571 149.564 130.301
2015
124.444 126.982
154.027 109.578 120.427 136.191
2016
122.497 128.596
157.777 110.376 95.661 141.208
Latest data
Reference: 1) Foodstuffs and beverages 2) Product of snuff 3) Textile Products 4) Paper and cardboard 5) Editing and Printing 6) Oil Refining 7)
Chemical products 8) Rubber and plastic 9) Non-Metallic Minerals 10) Basic metal industries 11) Motor vehicles 12) Metalworking excluding
automotive
2013 YoY
-0.2% -1.1%
-5.1%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-6.1%
-1.4%
-0.0%
-0.6%
6.2%
3.4%
3.7%
-3.9%
2014 YoY
-2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.1%
-0.5%
3.4%
0.1%
2.1%
-5.0%
0.3%
4.7% -21.2%
-1.1%
2015 YoY
-2.0%
0.4%
-7.5%
-8.4%
1.1%
-3.4%
2.8%
-0.4%
-2.6%
3.8%
-0.9% -19.5%
4.5%
Own estimate
Manufacturing Production Index NSA 2006=100
2006=100
Overall
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
NSA
100.000 19.300
0.700
2.000
3.000
5.700
8.400 15.500
4.200
4.200 10.800 11.100 15.100
Jan-13
117.223 118.873 124.346 104.454 106.925 112.940 94.005 141.798 140.658 133.406 83.170 118.715 120.220
Feb-13
117.320 114.874 106.963 103.493 99.201 108.910 85.062 137.918 129.174 130.948 81.550 155.530 116.970
Mar-13
132.990 120.016 119.040 111.853 112.590 110.160 98.810 143.640 136.770 148.620 112.774 226.760 114.100
Apr-13
135.063 121.505 108.295 119.865 110.170 115.370 82.622 143.058 135.888 146.462 109.514 214.240 145.920
May-13
134.817 120.944 120.848 127.659 114.274 122.428 86.432 131.536 133.604 154.495 109.889 229.294 136.700
Jun-13
125.667 114.237 92.316 127.706 112.444 121.656 91.176 124.460 134.548 146.792 99.197 183.203 134.675
Jul-13
129.895 121.894 112.762 127.715 115.239 120.463 93.953 121.879 138.431 143.406 109.489 206.235 128.510
Aug-13
133.590 125.658 109.065 127.143 115.442 119.927 97.040 128.988 139.069 149.768 113.339 203.300 137.020
Sep-13
133.354 126.655 106.811 133.314 111.208 122.181 96.585 128.877 136.989 152.793 110.164 208.223 132.244
Oct-13
139.238 133.980 115.497 133.505 118.144 123.637 95.122 138.399 141.373 161.902 113.989 218.927 136.193
Nov-13
133.743 128.092 113.756 132.627 111.542 123.507 92.306 138.567 140.649 158.298 112.570 181.092 140.247
Dec-13
130.860 142.600 108.382 124.338 111.048 123.330 96.229 142.510 134.208 148.837 111.135 132.920 138.740
Jan-14
114.176 116.668 124.836 111.825 105.765 119.615 95.278 130.683 131.897 135.771 99.327 102.717 112.173
Feb-14
116.684 115.202 115.023 112.659 101.918 118.006 85.857 128.669 117.686 126.292 92.098 155.877 112.465
Mar-14
125.102 119.594 106.687 119.078 111.807 122.906 78.387 140.108 126.634 144.006 113.247 169.847 117.945
Apr-14
129.599 126.328 115.980 122.704 107.753 126.001 88.490 145.835 126.664 147.838 117.752 171.380 120.900
May-14
128.156 124.307 115.823 124.404 111.165 126.064 99.021 144.231 129.704 155.467 115.574 148.308 124.300
Jun-14
125.240 117.395 109.298 124.947 107.081 123.775 95.450 131.469 126.654 146.727 112.148 148.358 136.520
Jul-14
128.970 122.860 116.540 135.810 121.110 128.610 96.890 138.390 131.630 150.450 113.430 143.720 139.990
Aug-14
129.660 133.345 112.490 133.367 115.794 123.550 94.179 136.445 136.571 150.527 111.694 133.010 145.950
Sep-14
131.086 127.084 113.455 131.082 112.987 119.637 92.845 138.781 129.541 158.194 111.486 167.273 138.822
Oct-14
136.680 138.153 110.211 123.725 118.519 124.708 97.890 143.180 136.186 162.579 115.547 176.942 139.487
Nov-14
130.935 132.086 104.319 122.516 107.518 119.324 88.289 142.586 137.357 155.696 110.597 158.414 138.535
Dec-14
127.793 144.191 107.038 112.763 109.494 120.543 97.471 135.332 128.267 146.640 113.950 118.921 136.520
Jan-15
111.754 118.575 113.365 99.800 107.759 112.925 98.778 132.167 119.350 143.384 95.835 73.263 119.931
Feb-15
114.194 112.538 95.823 97.646 106.207 112.323 87.068 121.700 122.156 136.157 91.622 132.633 123.299
Mar-15
123.115 115.350 104.100 106.040 110.600 112.060 97.700 135.940 128.740 156.650 104.350 152.700 124.600
Apr-15
127.001 127.748 109.278 114.118 108.716 123.498 89.624 146.953 122.953 152.104 118.315 138.368 125.842
May-15
125.624 125.776 109.226 115.836 112.107 123.461 99.797 145.272 125.702 159.522 115.925 116.315 129.514
Jun-15
122.611 118.814 102.361 116.132 108.081 121.030 96.042 132.131 122.663 150.737 112.282 116.504 141.790
Jul-15
126.270 124.244 108.875 126.468 122.141 125.620 97.534 138.710 127.689 154.552 113.402 112.489 144.997
Aug-15
126.995 134.642 104.660 123.750 116.735 120.398 94.920 136.429 132.668 154.654 111.710 102.816 150.813
Sep-15
128.256 128.254 105.321 121.308 113.981 116.454 93.719 138.619 125.738 162.459 111.540 135.881 143.644
Oct-15
133.967 139.337 102.008 114.055 119.566 121.500 98.809 142.921 132.402 166.903 115.582 146.387 144.454
Nov-15
128.310 133.187 96.237 112.880 108.624 116.167 89.185 142.358 133.612 160.110 110.651 128.459 143.651
Dec-15
125.226 145.322 98.894 103.340 110.688 117.430 98.433 135.196 124.629 151.093 113.728 89.306 141.760
Latest provisional data released
Reference: 1) Foodstuffs and beverages 2) Product of snuff 3) Textile Products 4) Paper and cardboard 5) Editing and Printing 6) Oil Refining 7)
Chemical products 8) Rubber and plastic 9) Non-Metallic Minerals 10) Basic metal industries 11) Motor vehicles 12) Metalworking excluding
automotive
4Q14 YoY
-2.1%
2.4%
-4.8%
-8.1%
-1.5%
-1.6%
-0.0%
0.4%
-3.5%
-0.9%
0.7% -14.8%
-0.2%
1Q15 YoY
-1.9% -1.4%
-9.6% -11.7%
1.6%
-6.4%
9.3%
-2.4%
-1.6%
7.4%
-4.2% -16.3%
7.4%
2Q15 YoY
-2.0%
1.2%
-5.9%
-7.0%
0.9%
-2.1%
0.9%
0.7%
-3.1%
2.7%
0.3% -20.7%
4.0%
Feb15 YoY
-2.1% -2.3% -16.7% -13.3%
4.2%
-4.8%
1.4%
-5.4%
3.8%
7.8%
-0.5% -14.9%
9.6%
Mar15 YoY
-1.6% -3.5%
-2.4% -10.9%
-1.1%
-8.8% 24.6%
-3.0%
1.7%
8.8%
-7.9% -10.1%
5.6%
Apr15 YoY
-2.0%
1.1%
-5.8%
-7.0%
0.9%
-2.0%
1.3%
0.8%
-2.9%
2.9%
0.5% -19.3%
4.1%
Own estimate

Utilizacin de la Capacidad Instalada

NSA

Overall
100.000
73.987
74.836
72.783
77.689
78.752
74.498
72.722
70.778
69.447
66.957

1
19.300
72.227
74.119
77.356
75.908
75.247
72.340
70.370
71.191
69.879
65.037

2
0.700
68.727
68.568
69.124
68.146
66.910
71.018
66.683
66.783
61.717
56.576

Manufacturing Capacity Utilization NSA

3
4
5
6
7
8
2.000 3.000 5.700 8.400 15.500 4.200
79.178 79.601 75.178 95.669 73.516 67.264
78.230 78.160 77.569 92.784 74.320 67.492
75.225 82.708 80.736 86.874 82.091 70.864
83.467 80.159 82.741 86.780 83.142 77.792
78.189 81.971 81.303 83.316 82.873 80.154
78.800 81.172 80.271 85.166 77.341 79.033
76.433 79.494 73.277 84.186 75.500 75.417
76.017 78.490 73.974 84.250 75.943 70.801
67.844 79.351 71.468 86.618 75.273 68.947
56.911 80.040 69.820 85.792 74.590 66.650

9
4.200
68.216
71.217
71.728
76.142
81.544
77.882
82.047
81.151
83.477
81.799

10
10.800
88.795
90.056
71.525
87.427
85.505
76.899
79.106
82.412
81.008
78.911

11
11.100
53.415
58.697
51.988
69.982
73.803
67.444
67.981
51.487
41.477
32.837

12
15.100
62.050
61.314
61.387
65.647
73.094
65.722
60.266
57.099
59.697
61.722

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Latest data
Reference: 1) Foodstuffs and beverages 2) Product of snuff 3) Textile Products 4) Paper and cardboard 5) Editing and Printing 6) Oil
Refining 7) Chemical products 8) Rubber and plastic 9) Non-Metallic Minerals 10) Basic metal industries 11) Motor vehicles 12)
Metalworking excluding automotive
2013 YoY
-2.4% -2.7% -6.1% -3.0% -2.1% -8.7% -1.2% -2.4% -4.6% 5.3%
2.9%
0.8% -8.3%
2014 YoY
-2.7%
1.2% 0.1% -0.5% -1.3% 1.0% 0.1%
0.6% -6.1% -1.1%
4.2% -24.3% -5.3%
2015 YoY
-1.9% -1.8% -7.6% -10.8% 1.1% -3.4% 2.8% -0.9% -2.6% 2.9% -1.7% -19.4%
4.6%
Own estimate
Manufacturing Capacity Utilization NSA
Overall
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
NSA
100.000 19.300 0.700 2.000 3.000 5.700 8.400 15.500 4.200 4.200 10.800 11.100 15.100
Jan-13
65.577 66.044 74.281 63.579 74.980 68.688 84.001 78.030 76.304 73.168 60.396 42.346 54.391
Feb-13
71.514 70.720 70.743 69.986 77.016 73.334 84.153 84.345 77.128 78.938 65.857 61.422 58.590
Mar-13
72.747 66.187 71.111 68.490 78.952 66.998 88.294 78.432 74.708 81.064 83.485 80.886 51.622
Apr-13
75.914 70.317 66.849 75.613 79.830 72.505 76.288 81.711 76.011 82.202 83.751 78.978 68.219
May-13
73.332 68.045 70.240 78.026 80.132 74.459 77.234 72.742 72.243 84.205 80.958 81.790 61.847
Jun-13
71.476 66.797 55.445 80.551 81.478 76.455 84.189 70.316 74.875 82.804 75.779 67.527 62.962
Jul-13
71.084 68.400 65.540 78.020 80.809 73.263 83.954 65.759 74.902 78.711 81.220 72.163 58.141
Aug-13
73.003 69.647 63.391 77.625 80.951 72.938 86.713 69.835 75.203 81.762 83.465 71.136 61.992
Sep-13
75.203 72.461 64.151 84.219 80.582 76.785 89.183 72.513 76.675 85.643 83.758 75.288 61.825
Oct-13
75.386 73.831 67.130 81.603 82.042 75.557 84.999 75.934 76.554 87.660 83.743 75.173 60.051
Nov-13
75.277 73.013 68.322 83.741 80.040 75.443 85.232 78.388 78.513 88.310 85.439 64.254 63.900
Dec-13
72.145 78.973 62.994 75.747 77.115 72.904 85.988 78.000 71.890 80.102 81.417 44.803 59.657
Jan-14
63.679 64.187 72.558 68.049 73.445 70.708 85.138 71.556 70.589 72.879 72.002 34.622 48.234
Feb-14
70.064 70.061 74.017 76.241 78.358 77.231 84.939 77.757 68.465 74.498 74.097 58.171 53.540
Mar-14
67.853 65.832 62.010 72.919 77.641 72.653 70.045 76.404 68.133 77.016 82.774 57.250 50.715
Apr-14
73.024 72.631 69.658 77.494 77.320 76.966 81.708 81.505 70.247 81.706 89.199 59.692 53.719
May-14
70.791 69.916 67.319 76.017 77.195 74.520 88.483 78.145 69.668 83.376 84.579 49.990 53.448
Jun-14
71.055 68.246 65.644 78.775 76.838 75.606 88.135 73.170 70.217 81.524 85.239 51.674 60.659
Jul-14
70.676 67.820 67.736 82.902 84.102 76.025 86.579 73.960 70.507 81.479 83.306 48.443 60.195
Aug-14
70.953 73.439 65.382 80.210 80.410 73.034 84.156 72.894 73.008 80.850 81.941 44.833 62.757
Sep-14
73.348 72.195 68.141 81.309 81.076 73.079 85.730 76.843 71.675 87.805 84.374 58.262 61.681
Oct-14
74.083 75.747 64.058 74.494 82.302 73.719 87.472 77.091 72.875 87.554 84.578 59.641 59.979
Nov-14
73.236 74.735 62.654 76.178 77.152 72.887 81.522 79.095 75.892 86.307 83.662 55.176 61.555
Dec-14
70.575 79.480 62.213 67.620 76.035 71.257 87.097 72.897 68.334 78.813 83.195 40.085 58.703
Jan-15
62.704 64.975 65.891 59.722 74.830 66.753 88.266 71.628 63.048 77.302 69.429 24.695 51.569
Feb-15
68.809 68.155 61.662 65.181 81.655 73.512 86.137 72.600 72.103 80.761 73.783 49.496 58.698
Mar-15
67.085 63.040 60.506 63.850 76.803 66.242 87.302 73.650 68.850 83.140 75.940 51.470 53.577
Apr-15
71.910 72.252 65.633 70.735 78.011 75.437 82.755 81.902 68.342 83.629 89.157 48.194 55.915
May-15
69.492 68.867 63.485 69.145 77.849 72.981 89.176 78.022 67.473 84.975 84.537 39.206 55.690
Jun-15
69.603 66.962 61.479 71.285 77.556 73.929 88.681 73.200 67.949 83.049 84.517 40.579 63.001
Jul-15
69.373 67.209 63.282 74.712 84.817 74.258 87.153 74.183 68.344 82.387 82.541 37.916 62.347
Aug-15
69.563 72.196 60.832 72.677 81.063 71.170 84.817 72.927 70.922 82.318 81.089 34.656 64.848
Sep-15
71.802 70.823 63.257 73.129 81.789 71.134 86.536 76.730 69.410 88.989 83.456 47.327 63.824
Oct-15
72.511 74.207 59.291 66.363 83.029 71.822 88.293 76.731 70.726 88.320 83.486 49.342 62.114
Nov-15
71.677 73.031 57.801 67.668 77.945 70.959 82.349 79.068 73.702 87.353 82.402 44.742 63.827
Dec-15
68.842 76.837 57.480 59.657 76.864 69.416 87.956 72.637 66.495 79.494 81.757 30.102 60.956
Latest data
Reference: 1) Foodstuffs and beverages 2) Product of snuff 3) Textile Products 4) Paper and cardboard 5) Editing and Printing 6) Oil
Refining 7) Chemical products 8) Rubber and plastic 9) Non-Metallic Minerals 10) Basic metal industries 11) Motor vehicles 12)
Metalworking excluding automotive
4Q14 YoY
-2.2%
1.8% -4.8% -9.5% -1.6% -2.7% -0.0% -1.4% -4.3% -1.3%
0.3% -15.9% -1.8%
1Q15 YoY
-1.5% -2.0% -9.8% -13.1% 1.7% -6.4% 9.0% -3.5% -1.5% 7.5% -4.2% -16.3%
7.4%
2Q15 YoY
-1.8% -1.3% -5.9% -9.1% 0.9% -2.1% 0.9%
0.1% -3.0% 2.0% -0.3% -20.7%
4.0%
Feb15 YoY
-1.8% -2.7% -16.7% -14.5% 4.2% -4.8% 1.4% -6.6% 5.3% 8.4% -0.4% -14.9%
9.6%
Mar15 YoY
-1.1% -4.2% -2.4% -12.4% -1.1% -8.8% 24.6% -3.6% 1.1% 8.0% -8.3% -10.1%
5.6%
Apr15 YoY
-1.5% -0.5% -5.8% -8.7% 0.9% -2.0% 1.3%
0.5% -2.7% 2.4% -0.0% -19.3%
4.1%
Own estimate