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A colleague once noted that when people ask him what Iran might do under any given
circumstance, he usually has one of two answers to offer: I don't know or It depends.
When it comes to Indias relationship with Iran, perhaps the best answer to most questions
is its complicated. This is not, however, usually the way the relationship is portrayed.
Indian policymakers publicly tend to emphasize the historical and civilizational ties that India
and Iran share. In the U.S., especially outside the executive branch, it is Indias oil imports
from Iran and high-level India-Iran visits that get (mostly negative) attention. This week, one
of those visits is taking place, with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif traveling to India,
seeking to open a new chapter in the relationship. While viewing his trip, its worth keeping
in mind the complexity of the relationship and the fact that there are not just elements
driving Indias ties with Iran, but some that limit it as well.
There are certain factors that have driven India's desire to maintain a relationship with Iran
and that are likely to persist. The role of the first factor often mentionedhistorical and
civilizational tiesis often overstated. They do provide a link, but these ties neither
prevented a frosty India-Iran relationship through most of the Cold War nor led to a close
one after the 1979 revolution.
larger Sunni one also make the Indian government sensitive to any Sunni-Shia tension in
the Middle East that could potentially spillover into India.
These factors dont just constitute the backdrop for Zarifs visit, they will be items on the
agenda as well. They are also the reasons that New Delhi would like to cooperate with
Tehran and to see a normalization of Irans relations with and standing in the international
community. However, even if the latter occurs, there are also factors in play that will serve
to limit the relationship from India's perspective.
Regional Complications
First, Indias energy relationship with Iran hasnt been without strain. New Delhi has had
doubts about Tehrans reliability and stability as a supplier. Iran is thought to have reneged
onsome deals, tried to renegotiate others, and given China and its companies better terms
in the Iranian energy sector. While an Iran under the pressure of sanctions has shown
slightly more inclination to offer India and its companies better terms, Indian officials note
that the Iranians remain tough negotiators in this arena. Tehran has also not been above
using Indias oil and gas needs to pressure the Indian government in the foreign policy
realm. This was perhaps most evident when Iranian officials seemed to link energy deals to
Indias votes at the IAEA. This did nothing to increase New Delhis confidence in Iran and
reinforced its general tendency to diversify its dependence partly in order to limit any one
countrys leverage on it.
Second, even as India has ties with Iran, it also has a number of other key relationships in
the region that will keep it from getting too close to Iran. Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf
Cooperation Council states supply a significant amount of the oil India imports. Qatar is also
its largest source of imported natural gas. The large Indian diaspora in these countries,
which is a major source of remittances, and the significant Sunni population in India (over
120 million) also make these relationships crucial. In addition, there are existing and
potential trade and investment ties at stake with these countries. For Delhi, a relationship
with Riyadh is also particularly critical because of the leverage the Saudi government is
thought to have with Islamabad.
There is an overall sense in India that these countries are taking it more seriouslypartly
thanks to Iran, partly in the Saudi case because of American urging, but also because of
Indias potential as a market as other consumers drop off the list. These countries interest
in India has been evident in the fact that in the ten days before Zarifs trip, Delhi saw visits
from the king of King of Bahrain, the Saudi crown prince, the Omani foreign minister and the
chairman of the Kuwaiti national security apparatus.
Finally, Indias relationship with the United States, and American (especially Congressional)
concerns about Iran have also affected the India-Iran relationship. Indian officials resent
pressure from the U.S. on India-Iran ties to Iranthey especially find public pressure to be
counterproductive, but they realize that these links with Iran do create complications in the
critical India-U.S. relationship. India has not been above using U.S. concerns about Iran as
wellfor example, with officials advocating for U.S. natural gas exports to India suggesting
that itd help ease Indias energy dependence on countries like Iran.