Japan, Population and Labour Force - 2015-2017 outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
02/05/15
Japan's total population is decreasing at an annual rate of 0.18%.
The population aged 65 or more, which in 1997 reached 15.6%, 21.4% in 2007 and 25.8% in 2014 is expected to reach a share of 28.4% for 2017.
From the second quarter of 2015 is expected to total labor force starts a continuous cycle of decline.
From November 2016 it is expected that the unemployment rate falls below 3.0% of the workforce, from the current 3.5% in 1Q2015
Statistics Bureau of Japan, publishes a monthly basis statistics on Population and Labour Force Survey.
The purpose of this document is to summarize the main data (some data have been restated), and provide a projection of its possible evolution for the period 2015/2017.

Annual
average

1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Latest data
Own estimate

Quarter
average

2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Latest data
Provisional data
Own estimate

month

Jan-2014
Feb-2014
Mar-2014
Apr-2014
May-2014
Jun-2014
Jul-2014
Aug-2014
Sep-2014
Oct-2014
Nov-2014
Dec-2014
Jan-2015
Feb-2015
Mar-2015
Apr-2015
May-2015
Jun-2015
Jul-2015
Aug-2015
Sep-2015
Oct-2015
Nov-2015
Dec-2015
Latest data
Provisional data
Own estimate

Raw data, not seasonally adjusted - ten thousand person

Population aged 15 years old and over
Labour force
Total
Employed
Unemployed
15 and
65 and
Participation Employed
over
0~14 15~64
over
rate
person
Total YoY
Employee person rate

Total population
Total population

Total
Total

YoY

12,572.1
12,602.5
12,636.3
12,660.0
12,683.8
12,714.7
12,740.6
12,764.3
12,774.0
12,775.6
12,784.4
12,798.4
12,804.7
12,803.3
12,804.2
12,781.5
12,754.3
12,732.4
12,711.1
12,688.0
12,665.4
12,642.8

0.13%
0.24%
0.27%
0.19%
0.19%
0.24%
0.20%
0.19%
0.08%
0.01%
0.07%
0.11%
0.05%
-0.01%
0.01%
-0.18%
-0.21%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.18%
-0.18%
-0.18%

2,002
1,942
1,908
1,876
1,848
1,829
1,814
1,803
1,784
1,768
1,755
1,733
1,719
1,704
1,694
1,670
1,657
1,645
1,629
1,613
1,597
1,582

8,686
8,698
8,689
8,676
8,656
8,624
8,577
8,540
8,512
8,462
8,405
8,334
8,276
8,209
8,170
8,144
8,042
7,919
7,804
7,692
7,580
7,468

1,884
1,962
2,039
2,107
2,180
2,261
2,350
2,422
2,478
2,546
2,625
2,733
2,810
2,890
2,941
2,967
3,055
3,169
3,278
3,383
3,488
3,593

10,571
10,661
10,728
10,784
10,836
10,886
10,927
10,962
10,990
11,008
11,030
11,066
11,086
11,099
11,111
11,111
11,098
11,088
11,082
11,075
11,068
11,061

6,711
6,787
6,793
6,779
6,766
6,752
6,689
6,666
6,642
6,651
6,664
6,684
6,674
6,650
6,632
6,591
6,555
6,577
6,587
6,565
6,518
6,453

0.67%
1.13%
0.09%
-0.20%
-0.19%
-0.21%
-0.93%
-0.34%
-0.36%
0.13%
0.20%
0.31%
-0.15%
-0.36%
-0.28%
-0.61%
-0.55%
0.33%
0.15%
-0.33%
-0.72%
-0.99%

77.26%
78.02%
78.18%
78.14%
78.17%
78.29%
77.99%
78.06%
78.03%
78.60%
79.29%
80.21%
80.65%
81.01%
81.17%
80.93%
81.50%
83.05%
84.40%
85.35%
85.98%
86.42%

6,486
6,557
6,514
6,462
6,446
6,412
6,330
6,316
6,329
6,356
6,389
6,428
6,409
6,315
6,298
6,289
6,270
6,311
6,351
6,345
6,316
6,271

5,322
5,391
5,368
5,331
5,356
5,369
5,331
5,335
5,355
5,393
5,478
5,537
5,546
5,489
5,500
5,508
5,504
5,553
5,595
5,605
5,598
5,575

225
230
279
317
320
340
359
350
313
294
275
257
265
336
334
302
285
265
236
221
202
183

3.35%
3.39%
4.10%
4.68%
4.73%
5.03%
5.36%
5.26%
4.72%
4.43%
4.13%
3.84%
3.97%
5.05%
5.03%
4.58%
4.34%
4.03%
3.58%
3.36%
3.10%
2.83%

Raw data, not seasonally adjusted - ten thousand person

Population aged 15 years old and over
Labour force
Total
Employed
Unemployed
15 and
65 and
Participation Employed
over
0~14 15~64
over
rate
person
Total YoY
Employee person rate

Total population
Total population

Total
Total

YoY

12,760.6
12,754.4
12,752.6
12,749.5
12,738.3
12,732.7
12,730.6
12,727.9
12,717.0
12,711.5
12,709.2
12,706.8
12,694.8
12,688.2
12,686.0
12,683.0
12,673.8
12,665.5
12,662.8
12,659.3

-0.25%
-0.17%
-0.21%
-0.22%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.18%
-0.18%
-0.19%
-0.17%
-0.18%
-0.18%
-0.19%

1,658
1,659
1,656
1,653
1,651
1,646
1,642
1,640
1,636
1,631
1,626
1,624
1,620
1,615
1,611
1,607
1,604
1,599
1,595
1,591

8,086
8,056
8,028
8,000
7,958
7,930
7,907
7,882
7,843
7,815
7,792
7,766
7,733
7,703
7,679
7,653
7,623
7,592
7,566
7,540

3,016
3,039
3,069
3,097
3,130
3,157
3,182
3,206
3,238
3,265
3,291
3,317
3,342
3,370
3,396
3,423
3,447
3,475
3,502
3,529

11,102
11,095
11,097
11,097
11,087
11,087
11,088
11,088
11,081
11,081
11,083
11,083
11,075
11,074
11,075
11,076
11,070
11,067
11,068
11,068

6,513
6,592
6,569
6,545
6,516
6,605
6,588
6,598
6,520
6,622
6,611
6,593
6,545
6,568
6,578
6,570
6,529
6,515
6,517
6,509

-0.82%
-0.59%
-0.34%
-0.46%
0.05%
0.19%
0.29%
0.81%
0.07%
0.26%
0.35%
-0.07%
0.38%
-0.82%
-0.50%
-0.35%
-0.24%
-0.80%
-0.92%
-0.93%

80.54%
81.83%
81.83%
81.81%
81.88%
83.29%
83.32%
83.70%
83.14%
84.73%
84.85%
84.90%
84.63%
85.26%
85.67%
85.86%
85.66%
85.81%
86.14%
86.33%

6,217
6,292
6,289
6,282
6,239
6,328
6,327
6,352
6,281
6,375
6,374
6,373
6,317
6,341
6,358
6,363
6,323
6,308
6,315
6,318

5,476
5,500
5,510
5,532
5,501
5,552
5,561
5,599
5,544
5,586
5,612
5,637
5,595
5,580
5,611
5,635
5,620
5,577
5,588
5,605

296
300
280
263
277
277
261
246
239
247
237
221
228
226
220
208
206
207
202
192

4.54%
4.55%
4.26%
4.02%
4.25%
4.19%
3.97%
3.72%
3.66%
3.73%
3.59%
3.35%
3.49%
3.45%
3.34%
3.16%
3.16%
3.18%
3.10%
2.94%

Raw data, not seasonally adjusted - ten thousand person

Total population
Population aged 15 years old and over
Total
Total population
Labour force
Total
Employed
Unemployed
15 and
65 and
Participation Employed
over
Total
YoY 0~14 15~64
over
rate
person
Total YoY
Employee person rate
12,721.1
12,716.2
12,713.6
12,711.7
12,710.6
12,712.3
12,712.7
12,708.4
12,706.5
12,708.3
12,707.6
12,704.5
12,699.5
12,694.0
12,691.0
12,689.5
12,687.5
12,687.5
12,688.0
12,686.0
12,684.0
12,684.0
12,683.5
12,681.5

-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.16%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.16%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.16%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.17%
-0.18%
-0.17%
-0.18%
-0.19%
-0.19%
-0.18%
-0.18%
-0.19%
-0.19%
-0.18%

1,637
1,637
1,633
1,633
1,629
1,631
1,628
1,629
1,622
1,623
1,623
1,625
1,623
1,620
1,617
1,617
1,614
1,614
1,612
1,612
1,609
1,608
1,607
1,607

7,856
7,841
7,832
7,821
7,816
7,809
7,803
7,789
7,784
7,775
7,767
7,756
7,743
7,732
7,725
7,712
7,703
7,695
7,688
7,678
7,670
7,661
7,653
7,644

3,228
3,238
3,249
3,258
3,266
3,272
3,282
3,290
3,300
3,310
3,318
3,324
3,334
3,342
3,349
3,361
3,371
3,379
3,388
3,396
3,405
3,415
3,424
3,431

11,084
11,079
11,081
11,079
11,082
11,081
11,085
11,079
11,084
11,085
11,085
11,080
11,077
11,074
11,074
11,073
11,074
11,074
11,076
11,074
11,075
11,076
11,077
11,075

6,501
6,516
6,544
6,592
6,640
6,634
6,604
6,595
6,635
6,623
6,590
6,567
6,540
6,548
6,547
6,554
6,570
6,579
6,579
6,574
6,581
6,579
6,572
6,560

-0.02%
-0.05%
0.28%
-0.17%
0.32%
0.62%
0.58%
0.21%
0.27%
-0.09%
-0.45%
0.35%
0.60%
0.49%
0.05%
-0.58%
-1.05%
-0.83%
-0.38%
-0.32%
-0.81%
-0.66%
-0.27%
-0.11%

82.75%
83.10%
83.55%
84.29%
84.95%
84.95%
84.63%
84.67%
85.24%
85.18%
84.85%
84.67%
84.46%
84.69%
84.75%
84.98%
85.29%
85.50%
85.57%
85.62%
85.80%
85.88%
85.87%
85.82%

6,262
6,283
6,298
6,338
6,398
6,389
6,357
6,363
6,402
6,390
6,371
6,357
6,309
6,322
6,319
6,324
6,345
6,355
6,354
6,355
6,365
6,364
6,364
6,360

5,548
5,544
5,541
5,549
5,592
5,617
5,600
5,600
5,636
5,629
5,637
5,645
5,611
5,595
5,580
5,569
5,576
5,595
5,605
5,609
5,620
5,622
5,635
5,648

238
232
246
254
242
245
248
231
233
233
219
210
231
226
228
230
225
224
225
219
216
215
208
200

3.66%
3.56%
3.76%
3.85%
3.64%
3.69%
3.76%
3.50%
3.51%
3.52%
3.32%
3.20%
3.53%
3.45%
3.48%
3.51%
3.42%
3.40%
3.42%
3.33%
3.28%
3.27%
3.16%
3.05%

Not in
Status
labour
unknown
force
3,852
3,863
3,925
3,989
4,057
4,125
4,229
4,285
4,336
4,346
4,358
4,375
4,407
4,446
4,473
4,517
4,540
4,506
4,489
4,504
4,545
4,603

8
11
11
15
13
9
9
11
13
11
8
7
5
3
6
3
3
5
6
6
6
5

Not in
Status
labour
unknown
force
4,587
4,499
4,525
4,549
4,566
4,475
4,495
4,488
4,555
4,451
4,466
4,484
4,524
4,499
4,492
4,501
4,535
4,545
4,546
4,554

3
3
2
3
6
6
5
3
6
7
6
6
6
7
5
4
6
7
5
5

Not in
Status
labour
unknown
force
4,579
4,558
4,529
4,478
4,435
4,441
4,474
4,479
4,444
4,454
4,489
4,508
4,531
4,520
4,521
4,513
4,497
4,488
4,491
4,495
4,490
4,491
4,501
4,512

4
5
8
9
7
6
7
5
5
8
6
5
6
6
6
6
7
7
6
5
4
6
4
3