The

future is bright, Wear your sunglasses..Ian Somerhalder

Vol. III, No. 18, 1 May 2015

Revisiting the World Order

Our world is passing through a dramatic transition due to disruptive forces any of which can prove to be
driver of big change in global economy. The scale of change is estimated to be 10 times more, 500 times the
scale and with approx. 2000 times the impact. Interestingly we fail to understand second and third order effects
of the following changes:

Beyond Mumbai, Dubai and Shanghai
Yes, the change is beyond Mumbai, Dubai and ShanghaiHsinchu in Northern Taiwan, Santa Catarina state in
Brazil, Tianjin in Southeast of Beijing are the new pointers of change. The global urban population has been
rising by an average of 65 million people a year, perhaps equivalent of adding seven Chicagos a year. Nearly
half of global GDP growth between 2010 and 2015 will be from 440 cities in emerging markets. More than 90%
of them are mid size cities that many western executives may not even have heard of and can not identify on
map. Estimations are that GDP of Tianjin will be around $625 billion apporx that of all of Sweden. 95% of
Fortune Global 500 companies are headquartered in developing economies. By 2025, it is expected nearly half
of the worlds large companies with revenue of $1 billion or more to be headquartered in emerging markets.

Age of Gadgets & Technology
Twenty years ago, less than 3 percent of the worlds population had a mobile phone ; now two thirds of the
worlds population has one and one third of all humans are able to communicate on the Internet. Data is
bringing different kind of revolution. People are selling/purchasing on OLX, hiring taxi on OLA, retailing on
Alibaba, & many such activities placing unprecedented amounts of information in the hands of consumers
through Gadgets. Radio took 38 years to attract 50 million listeners whereas Facebook attracted 6 million users
in the first year and the number multiplied 100 times over the next five years. WeChat of China has 300 million
users which is more than the adult population of United States. Estimates are that iphone users had
downloaded more than 75 billiion total apps, more than 10 for every person on the planet. Latest gadgets and
technology have changed the pace of business, information flow and revenue generation with least input cost.

Gray Population
Thirty years ago, a very small share of global population lived in the few countries with fertility rates 2.1
children per woman. By 2013, about 60% of the worlds population lived in the countries with fertility rates
below replacement rate. By 2060, Germanys population will shrink by one fifth. Chinas labor force peaked in
2012 . In Thailand, the fertility rate has fallen from 5 in 1980s to 1.4 today. A smaller workforce will place
greater onus on productivity for driving growth. The human population is getting older. Demographic deficit is
now spreading to China and soon will reach Latin America.

The world around seems like full of opportunities but trends inside are deeply unsettling. We have to adjust to
these realities and trends. Revisiting our assumptions about world we live in is a must, now.

By: - Dr.Sandhir Sharma

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Disclaimer: This Newsletter is prepared to enhance awareness and for information only. The
information is taken from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed by Chitkara
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