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0.41
0.25
0.18
0.10
0.06
P(0 X 3)
0.41
0.25
0.18
0.1
0.06
(d)
1.15
0.41
3 1.15
1.15
0.25
0.10
4 1.15
1.15
0.18
0.06 1.5075
1.15
x
P(X = x|x>0)
0.42
0.31
0.17
0.10
P(X = x)
0.6
0.2
0.2
(a) Find the mean and variance of X1 and explain why we do not need to
find the mean and variance of X2 once we know those of X1?
0.6;
0.64
The mean and variance of X2 are the same because they have identical
distributions.
(b) As X1 and X2 are random so is . Find the mean and variance of
Compare these with the result from (a) and comment.
0.6
1
4
1
4
0.32
Ifn=2possiblevaluesforthemeanare0,,1,3/2,2.
Ifn=3possiblevaluesare0,1/3,2/3,1,,2
Asnincreasesgetafinergridofvaluesbetweenextremesof0and2.
(d) Find the distribution of
(known as the sampling distribution).
Comment on the magnitudes of the probabilities.
Weknowpossiblevaluesforthemeanare0,,1,3/2,2.Nowneedtoassign
probabilities to each outcome to produce the probability distribution for the
samplemean.
Forexample
0
0,
0
0.6 0.6 0.36
Thefollowingtablelistsallpossibleoutcomesandassociatedprobabilities:
,
0,0
0,1
0,2
1,0
1,1
1,2
2,0
2,1
2,2
1
3/2
1
3/2
2
Therequiredprobabilitydistributionbecomes:
0
1/2
1
0.36
0.24
0.28
)
Probability
0.36
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.04
0.04
0.12
0.04
0.04
3/2
0.08
2
0.04
3. A student has taken three courses in this semester. Lets call them courses
A, B and C. Her chances of passing each course are 0.8, 0.65, and 0.5,
respectively. Passing each course is assumed to be independent of passing
other courses. Answer the following:
(a) Define a random variable for each course outcome.
A=0(failA)&A=1(passA)
B=0(failB)&B=1(passB)
C=0(failC)&C=1(passC)
(b) What is the probability that this student passes exactly two courses?
P(passingtwocourses)=P(passA&BbutfailC)+P(passA&CbutfailB)+
1 0.5
0.8 0.5
1 0.65
P(passC&BbutfailA)=0.8 0.65
0.65 0.5
1 0.8
0.465
(c) What is the probability that this student fails at least one course?
P(failingatleastonecourse)=1P(passingallcourses)
1 0.8 0.65 0.5 0.74
(d) How reasonable is the assumption of independence?
Independenceislikelytobeanunreasonableassumption.Resultsarelikelytobe
dependent(strongpositiveassociation).
n
Cxpossiblecombinationsovern=4tosses
ValueofX
0
(TTTT)[4C0=1]
1
(HTTT)(THTT)(TTHT)(TTTH)[4C1=4]
2
(HHTT)(HTHT)(HTTH)(THHT)(THTH)(TTHH)[4C2=6]
3
(THHH)(HTHH)(HHTH)(HHHT)[4C3=4]
4
(HHHH)[4C4=1]
Eachofthesecombinationsareequallylikelybecauseonanytossofafaircoin
P(H)=P(T)=0.5&wereassumingoutcomesareindependent
P(TTTT)=P(HTTT)=.=P(HHHH)=(0.5)4=0.0625
Therequiredprobabilitydistributionbecomes:
0
1
2
3
4
0.0625
0.25
0.375
0.25
0.0625
Y=5X3*(4X)
As
E(X)
= 0+10.25+20.375+30.25+40.0625
= 2
Var(X) = (2)20.0625+(1)20.25+0+(1)20.25+(2)20.0625
= 1
E(Y)
= 5E(X)3[4E(X)]
= 1012+6=4
or
y
P(Y=y)
12
0.0625
4
0.25
4
0.375
12
0.25
20
0.0625
E(Y) = 120.062540.25+40.375+12.025+200.0625
= 4
If you play the game enough times you would expect to win $4 per game on
average.Thusthisisnotafairgame(whereexpectedreturnsarezero)butitis
biasedtowardstheplayerunlikegamesincasinoswhereexpectedwinningsare
negative.
Notice on any one play of the game you still might lose money and hence
someone who is extremely risk averse might not want to play the game even
thoughonaverageovermanyplaysofthegametheyshouldwin.