Professional Documents
Culture Documents
by
ADaBERTO JOSE ROSA
March 1983
94305
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author wishes to express his gratitude to Dr. Roland N. Horne for his
valuable suggestions and guidance during this study.
Support provided by Petroleo Brasileiro S. A. in the form of a
scholarship, by Stanford University as financial aid for research, and by
Schlumberger Well Services, which made this work possible, are also gratefully
acknowledged.
iii
ABSTRACT
This report presents an investigation on automatic
methods of type curve matching for the interpreSation of well
test data. With these methods the analysis can be done by
a
digital computer rather than by an eye-ball fit.
Analysis of drawdown data for single or multi-layer
systems, finite or infinite acting reservoirs,with or without
wellbore storage and skin were investigated.
The main purpose of a well test analysis is to estimate
the reservoir and well parameters. The case including storage
effects in the wellbore yields a solution to the governing
equations which is nonlinear in the reservoir parameters. Our
problem turns out to be a nonlinear parameter estimation or,
in other words, a nonlinear regression analysis.
The solution for the pressure drop at the wellbore was
obtained by the Laplace Transform method. The real values of
pressure drops were evaluated by numerical inversion. A l s o
the parameter gradients necessary to implement the regression
technique were determined in Laplace space and then numeri cally inverted to real space.
Particular results were obtained in the analysis of the
infinite acting case. The difficulty that is normally experienced when trying to match data with the drawdown type curves
is here mathematically explored. In fact, it was found that,
for practical purposes there are an infinite number of possible solutions for the desired parameters, namely the permeability, thickness, skin factor and storage coefficient.
Layered systems, under some well-defined circumstances,
can also be automatically analyzed to yield information about
the permeabilities, radii of the layers, wellbore storage co-
iv
TABLE
CONTENTS
..............................
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ABSTRACT
OF
\ *
................;.;...................
iii
iv
LIST OF FIGURES
...............................
xi
LIST OF TABLES
................................
xii
1.
1.2
..............................
Homogeneous Reservoirs ........ X......
Heterogeneous Reservoirs .............
1.3
INTRODUCTION
1.1
Analysis
1.4
2.
............................
and Scope ...................
MATHEMATICAL MODEL
2.1
3.
Purpose
Test
Assumptions
.......................
.........................
...........................
Governing Equations .............
LAYER RESERVOIR
3.1
The
3.2
.........................
vi
11
4.
4.1
tion
..............
Problem Formula-
................................
17
...
4.2
4.3
is.
.............
Estimation of k , h, s and C .........
4 . 4 . 1 The Gauss Method .............
4.4.2
Example of Application of
Gauss Method
4.4.3
17
17
18
20
20
the
.................
25
4.4.4
4.4.5
4.5
4.5.3
............
....
............
36
38
40
4.5.2
with
Estimation o f k , s and C
4.5.1
27
........................
41
Estimation o f Confidence
Inter
....
49
vi i
............
52
4.5.4
4.5.5
....
of
.......................
Systems ..................
Results
4.6
5.
Multi-Layer
55
59
RESERVOIR
5.1
.................................
64
6.
52
.................................
64
.....................
67
7.
CONCLUSIONS
...............................
71
8.
APPENDICES
................................
74
8.1
the
with
.........
8.3
74
.........................
77
Infinite
..........
93
8.4
Infinite Single
Gauss-Marquardt Method
with Interpolation-Extrapolation
Penalty Functions
8.5
.....................
95
.........................
Gauss Method
8.6
and
122
8.7
s,
Penalty
............................
148
8.9
141
8.8
.......
184
Infinite Two-
Gauss-Marquardt Method
...............
186
.................................
ix
200
8.11
. .
r
el
s. C . Finite Two-
e2
................
204
NOMENCLATURE
................................
222
10 . BIBLIOGRAPHY
.................................
226
LIST
OF
FIGURES
2-1
4.5.1-1
.................................
Plot
.................
4.5.1-2
4.5.1-3
4.5.5-1
4.5.5-2
8- a
42
.....................................
44
.....................................
46
57
58
........................
.......
xi
LIST
OF
TABLES
......
26
39
............
48
...
53
61
70
4.4.2-1
4.4.4-1
4.5.1-1
4.5.3-1
4.6-1
6-1
......................
xii
1.
INTRODUCTION
HOMOGENEOUS
RESERVOIRS
Obviously there is no reservoir that is completely homogeneous as considered in the corresponding mathematical
model. However, solutions to the real case can be at least
approximated by the solutions to an ideal reservoir having
the same properties as the average properties o f the
real
one. T h i s is sufficient to make the study of the ideal case
an important starting point.
The most common kinds of pressure test are the pressure buildup test and the drawdown test. Although in this
work we have directed our attention mainly to the drawdown
test, the buildup test analysis could be approached in exactly the same way.
reIn a drawdown test the bottom-hole pressure is
corded while the well is flowing either at a constant surface flow rate or at a variable flow rate (multiple-rate
HETEROGENEOUS RESERVOIRS
..
methods of performing the type curve matching procedure automatically. Therefore,rather than simply generating type curves
for different combinations of reservoir parameters,specific
type curve solutions can be generated iteratively until convergence to the best match is achieved.
So far, most of the methods proposed for estimating reservoir parameters automatically either have not dealt with
cases including wellbore storage and skin factor o r assumed
them to be known.This means that early time drawdown or buildup data could not be properly analyzed. In some studies approximate solutions, such as the line source solution, were
used but in all cases only analytical solutions in real space
were considered. It is well known that one of the major problems in this kind of procedure may be the evaluation of the
complex mathematical expression that describe the analytical
solution of the system.
In this work the solution for the pressure drop at the
wellbore, including storage and skin effects, is considered
in the Laplace space. This permits the estimation not only
of reservoir but also of well parameters.
As we will see in the next chapters, the equation for
the pressure at the wellbore is nonlinear with respect to
the reservoir parameters and the problem of estimating them
requires nonlinear regression analysis.
Since the solution to the governing differential equation is known explicitly only in the Laplace space, this s o lution and the required derivatives of it with respect
to
the unknown reservoir parameter were inverted numerically
by means of an efficient and simple technique proposed
by
Stehfest (1970). The fitting of the type curve solution to
the data was then done in real space. Both bounded and infinite acting reservoirs were studied, for both single and
multi-layered systems.
The fact that the numerical inversion technique is
2.
MATHEMATICAL
MODEL
The derivation of the equations that describe the behavior of pressure as a function of time and distance for a fluid
flow in porous media is based on the following principles :
(a) conservation of mass
(b) an equation of state
(c) an equation of rate, which is Darcy's law
The principle of the conservation of mass produces a continuity equation that, combined with Darcy's law and the appropriate equation of state leads to the differential equation that
describes the behavior of the pressure response of the proposed
model. Setting the problem completely requires the definition
of boudary and initial conditions.
Figure 1 describes schematically the physical model studied. The system consists of n layers, which communicate only
through the wellbore and may have different radii. The single
layer case is of course a special one and the infinite acting
reservoir can be viewed as the bounded system producing at such
early times that its limits are not reached yet. We will present and work with the mathematical solution for each case,
namely the bounded and the infinite reservoir.
2.1.
ASSUMPTIONS
porous medium.
( 3 ) Each layer has constant porosity and permeability,
uniform thickness, and contains a fluid of small and constant
compressibility, and constant viscosity.
( 4 ) The initial pressure in the reservoir is pi and the
same in each layer. It is also assumed that the instantaneous
sand-face pressure is identical for all layers.
(5) Pressure gra,dients are small everywhere and gravity
effects are negligible.
(6) The well produces at a constant surface volumetric
rate , qsc The production rate from each layer may vary and
during the early period stocked fluids in the wellbore may
contribute substancialy to the production.
( 7 ) The external drainage radius may be different for
each layer.
-Nm
F:
a,
Q)
k
ol
a,
k
I
I
u
L
-e
&
&
8-a
Q)
v)
3. MATHEMATICAL MODEL
3.1.
ar
where :
r ar
j= 1,2,3
n.at
3
,... ,nl
(3.1-2)
lim p. (r,t) = pi
rJ
qp
-c dPwf
dt
(3.1-4)
(3.1-5)
+
j=l
r=rw
j
pi-pj(r,t),
(3.1-7)
Apj (r,O) = 0
(3.1-8)
(3.1-9)
10
ar
J r=r
where : n p j = A p j ( r , t )
3.2
The L a p l a c e t r a n s f o r m o f a f u n c t i o n f ( t ) i s d e f i n e d by
the integral
where z i s t h e complex v a r i a b l e (x
i y ) . Therefore,
Using t h e i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n Eq. ( 3 . 1 - 8 )
(3.2-2)
: r p j ) ) = z Apj(r,z)
S u b s t i t u t i n g ( 3 . 2 - 2 ) i n (3.2- 1)
11
lim
Ap.(r,z) =
r+w
Eq.
( 3 . 1 - 1 0 ) becomes, u n d e r t h e L a p l a c e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n :
and
7!
l r p w f ) } = z Apw,(z)
- Apwf (r,O)
= z Apwf
Thus
F i n a l l y , Eq.
(3.1-11) t r a n s f o r m s t o :
Hence, o u r s y s t e m now i n t h e L a p l a c e s p a c e i s :
12
(3.2-3)
lim Ap.(r,z)
r+w
J
= 0
(3.2-4)
Apj (r,z)
A.Ko
J
Apj(r,z)
= A.Ko
Now using ( 3 . 2 - 8 ) in ( 3 . 2 - 6 ) :
(3.2-8)
Knowing that
dKo (x)
dx
K1 (X)
the
(3.2-10)
(3.2-11)
Rewriting
E4. (3.2-9) :
(3.2-12)
(3.2-13)
From Eq. (3.2-12) we obtain :
(3.2-14)
Substituting in (3.2-13) :
nl
14
In transformed form :
Differentiating Eq.(3.2-8)
15
Knowing the solution to the pressure drop at the wellbore, still in the Laplace space and given by Eq.(3.2-15), we
now turn our attention t o the problem of estimating the reservoir parameters appearing in that equation. Reservoir parameters normally estimated by well-test analysis methods for drawdown test data are some combinations of the following : permeability (k), thickness (h), porosity-viscosity-compressibility
.product ($vet), skin factor ( s ) and storage coefficient (C).
The conventional semi-log analysis permits the estimation of
the transmissibility (kh/p) and the skin factor, or even the
permeability (k) and skin factor (s) if we know the other
parameters involved. The type curve matching technique applied
with the Agarwal
(1970), et al., type curves is supposed to
provide estimatives of the storage coefficient (C),the
skin
factor ( s ) , and, permeability (k) and ($PC,) if we
know
thickness (h) and viscosity (p), permeability and thickness if
we know viscosity and ($PC ) , or other combinations of less
t
common usage.
Looking at Eq. (3.2-15) we note that it is not possible
to obtain an analytical inversion to real space. It has to be
done numerically. However, the pressure drop at the well, i.e,
*PWf is a nonlinear function of the reservoir andwell parameters to be estimated, at least in the Laplace space and most
likely in the real space as well. We have therefore t o choose
a suitable method to solve this nonlinear parameter estimation.
This is the subject o f next sections.
16
PARAMETERS
4.1.
PROBLEM FORMULATION
(4.2-1)
where :
3= ( e 1 , e 2 ,
...
The methods to be applied include constrained and unconstrained optimizations. As discussed in details by Bard
( 1 9 7 4 ) , there are several possibilities for solving such
is
types o f problem but no single method has emerged which
best for the solution of all nonlinear programming problems.
We will have to explore their behavior in our particular case
and compare the results. Some o f the possible methods for the
unconstrained problems are :
(1) The Method of Steepest Descent
This is the simplest of the so called "gradient methods".
Normally it is not recornended for practical applications
because although the objective function decreases rapidly
18
This method works by linearizing the equations of condition, as defined later on, and by expanding them in a Taylor
series, wich is then truncated at the first derivatives with
respect to the parameters. This approximates the problem
as
a sequence of linear least squares solutions.
( 3 ) Newton's Method
19
(6)
4.4.
20
fied, but we want to find the solution that minimizes the deviation, defined by Eq.(4.2-l).
This system of equations for
n data points is :
b w f l t = t 1 - Apwfl
(4.4.1-1)
pwf
] t=tn-
Apwfn
where bpwf]t=ti is the theoretical pressure drop at the wellbore at time t=ti. This is defined by Eq.(3.2-15) (with nR=l)
in the Laplace space, or, in real space, Apwf t=ti is the following equation evaluated at time t=ti :
[ I
-1
(4.4.1-2)
(4.4.1-3)
21
.... .. . (4.4.1-4)
where
set to their
known values, we can solve for the unknown "corrections" (k-ko)
(h-ho), ( s - S O ) and (C-CO) to the first guess.
We note however that the derivatives can not be obtained
in real space because the functions F i are in the Laplace space. However we employ one of the theorems of the Laplace transform theory :
where :
p = 1,2,
...,nP
eP
parameter (k,h,s,C)
Therefore :
22
Apwf (8, z )
- a
a e - ae [dpwf]
P
P
aFi
aFi
t=ti
a
ae
'PWfi
-- - a eQ
p w f ] t=ti
The d e r i v a t i v e s d e f i n e d by E q . (4.4.1-5) a r e c a l c u l a t e d
i n Appendix 8.1.
L e t t i n g Ak = k - ko
Ah= h - ho A S = s - S O
and
A C = C - C o and
aFi
23
. (4.4.1-6)
Bn,i
Ak
Bn -Ah + Bn :AS
92
,3
Bn
AC
9 4
Rn
.n
n
n
n
n
n
- Ri
Ak C B.1 2 B.1 1 + Ah C Bi2Bi2+ A S C Bi2Bi3 + AC C Bi2Bi4 -1 B l2
i=1
i=1
i=1
i=1
i=1
n
n
n
n
Ak C Bi4Bil+ Ah C B.1 4 B.1 2 + A S C Bi4Bi3
i=1
i=1
i=1
n
n
AC C B. B. = -1 Bi4Ri
i=1 1 4 1 4 i=l
. ..... (4.4.1-7)
This system can be represented as E3 = f , where
3 = (Ak,Ah,As,AC)T, and easily solved by simple Gauss elimination. These corrections are added to the solution vector
to
form a new estimate of the values of the unknowns. We repeat
the process from (4.4.1-4) until we obtain convergence within
a prescribed accuracy. Therefore, our nonlinear regression is
a succession of multiple linear regressions.
The Gauss method is known t o be very sensitive to the
24
rW
ct
= 6.7 x
1.325 bbl/STB
0.90 cp
2 3 / 8 in
0.039
psi -1
25
Table 4.4.2- 1
t (hr)
-0
0.0167
26
0.033
53
0.05
78
0.1
148
0.15
210
0.2
267
0.3
369
0.4
454
0.5
519
0.6
572
0.8
654
1.0
719
1.5
804
2.
849
2.5
859
3.
864
3.5
869
4.
874
4.5
877
5.
882
6.
887
7.
893
8.
897
10.
905
12.
911
L
IER=129. The Gauss method cannot successfully handle a problem where the matrix is very ill-conditioned. One method of
avoiding this problem is to use the Gauss-Marquardt method,
discussed in the next section.
4.4.3.THE GAUSS-MARQUARDT METHOD WITH THE INTERPOLATIONEXTRAPOLATION TECHNIQUE AND PENALTY FUNCTIONS
Marquardt (1963)' developed a method wich he claims
combines the best features of the Taylor series (Gauss) method, avoiding its problem of divergence, and the steepest-descent ( or gradient) methods, avoiding its slow convergence
after the first few iterations. The method is particulary useful when the matrix is highly ill-conditionedy as in the case
demonstrated in the previous section. Marquardt showed that
solving the system of normal equations E if = 8 is equivalent
to solving the system
(E+AI
(4.4.3-1)
and r e p l a c e A w i t h 10A.
The v a l u e o f h n e c e s s a r y t o p r o d u c e an a c c e p t a b l e s t e p
i n c r e a s e s w i t h t h e i l l - c o n d i t i o n i n g o f t h e m a t r i x E.
The i n t e r p o l a t i o n method i n s t e p ( c ) i s d e s c r i b e d l a t e r
i n t h i s s e c t i o n . Assuming we have chosen an a c c e p t a b l e d i r e c t i o n g i v e n by t h e s o l u t i o n v e c t o r 3$ b u t t h e r e s i d u a l SSR d i d
n o t decrease, it i s p o s s i b l e t o f i n d a f a c t o r p (i+l) such t h a t
t h e new SSR i s s m a l l e r t h a n t h e p r e v i o u s one. On t h e o t h e r
hand, i f t h e s o l u t i o n v e c t o r 'if was a l r e a d y a c c e p t a b l e , i t p a y s
t o t r y a t l e a s t one o t h e r v a l u e o f p t o s e e w h e t h e r we c a n n o t
do even b e t t e r by r e d u c i n g t h e SSR f u r t h e r . T h i s i s t h e e x t r a p o l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e . Both i n t e r p o l a t i o n and e x t r a p o l a t i o n a r e
i n c l u d e d i n t h e FORTRAN program p r e s e n t e d i n Appendix 8 . 3 .
Another way o f improving t h e n u m e r i c a l a s p e c t s o f comp u t i n g p r o c e d u r e s t o s o l v e a l i n e a r system o f e q u a t i o n s i s t o
s c a l e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t m a t r i x and t h e r i g h t hand s i d e v e c t o r .
Our i n i t i a l e q u a t i o n was, i n m a t r i x form :
(4.4.3-2)
We w i l l d e f i n e a s c a l e d
m a t r i x ES and a s c a l e d v e c t o r
-k
US a s
(4.4.3-3)
-c
us
= { u s1. }
I&[
28
(4.4.3-4)
(4.4.3-5)
XI) Ifs
Us
(4.4.3-6)
/m
11
5s
(4.4.3-7)
(8
)&
(4.4.3-8)
6./h.(8)
3
(4.4.3-9)
If $'and
8 ) SSR
~ (8)
C6./h.(8 )
j J J
(4.4.3-10)
29
their minima respectively, it has been proved that under suitable conditions
lim
Bt= +*
e
(4.4.3-11)
6j+o
(4.4.3-12)
Hab
n
?2fi
a @
= - 2 C e
aeaaeb
i=l i a e p b
" af i
f
+2 C .ai
i=laea
aeb
(4.4.3-13)
8.
-b
. aeb
"v
(4.4.3-15)
to
(4.4.3-16)
30
I n c l u d i n g t h e p e n a l t y f u n c t i o n s we have
Nab
n afi
= 2 C
afi
a+
aeaaeb
-.-
i=laea
aeb
C
j
6 / h (8))
j
j
(4.4.3-17)
a2Cj
Noting t h a t
(8)
aeaaeb
i s a l w a y s z e r o when a # b
t h e f u n c t i o n s h j (8) a r e p a i r e d i n d e p e n d e n t f o r l o w e r
u p p e r bounds on t h e p a r a m e t e r s 8 , i t i s found t h a t
n afi
Nab=2C-.
i=laea
afi
for
a # b
since
and
(4.4.3-18)
aeb
(4.4.3-19)
qa
- -
n
C ei
i=l
afi
aa
ah.(?!
x {j 6 . J/ h : (J 8
)Iae a
(4.4.3-20)
31
(4.4.3-21)
hl ( ))Ea> 0
+
h2 ( 8):
1.-a 3 0
h3 ( 8 ) B~> O
h ( 8): 100. - B > O
4
h5
h6
h7
h8
sa 0
($)E
($)~30 - sa 0
($)E
C >O
(8)-6u106 - C
20
8
c
((8)
j=1 7
= 61 + &2
~1
+63
64
+ -6 5
1-CX f3
100-f3 s
&6
++& 7 + 6+8
30-s C
6x106- C
(4.4.3-22)
We will assign to the 6 ' s small numbers of the same
order of magnitude, letting
61
63 =64 =
10 -4 x( 1- 0 ) cp { 8 ( k ) }
x(100-0 )
cp
(k)
(4.4.3-23)
where +(k)
8
is the solution vector obtained at the previous
iteration.
Using now our initial nomenclature, the equation to be
solved
32
(4.4.3-24)
transforms t o
(4.4.3-25)
where
1
3
c1
+1
(I-~)
1
-
+1
(100-8)
(4.4.3-26)
and a , b , s , C a r e a l s o from t h e p r e v i o u s i t e r a t i o n ( k - t) h.
S i n c e t h e r i g h t hand s i d e i s
(4.4.3-27)
comparing (4.4.3-24) t o (4.4.3-16),
we have
(4.4.3-28)
33
or
x
8
uat
ua
j=l
[S.
/ h?(8(k))
3
] "a
(4.4.3-29)
Hence :
1
a2
-1-
2 _ -
B2
(4.4.3-30)
-3s2
3
(~O-S)~
-6C2
6
(6x
106-C)'
(4.4.3-31)
34
...,
1,2,3,
nP
E
= small number
P
th component of the solution vector
e = pp
where :
P
k
iteration number
We will be using
E
10-4
eP
(k) + 10-3 1
(4.4.3-32)
d(k+l) has
if for each E,
PI
is satisfied
< min
{E
/Id (k+U I }
where d
As shown in the algorithm included in the FORTRAN program of Appendix 8.4, termination occurs if it is forced to
p,
pma,,
8(k) +
for
p.a(k'l)
35
(k+l)
2 0,
is
we obtain
Then,
If
dCk+l) > 0,
If
d(k+l)
p (k+l)
< 0,
negative number
(k+l)
4
positive number
k = 0.1 darcy
Ct= 10
qt= 100 cm / s
cD=
-4
/atm
100 cm
rw= 10 cm
10
p = 1
cp
4 = 0.10
s
10
36
rW
and
C is given by
= 2 0 0 0 . ~ -6283.
B=
0.1
kh -
10.
Ft
be
At first we apply the method without the penalty functions. Results obtained using different initial guesses are
presented in the Appendix 8.4, examples 4.4.4-1
and
4.4.4-2. They show that in the first iteration a becomes
negative, which on one hand is nonsensical in our particular
problem and on the other hand brings a difficulty for
the
next iteration because it is the argument of the modified
Bessel functions. We also ran the second example without
requiring that the program stopped when the arguments of the
Bessel functions became negative. It overcame the problem of
negative arguments but took 13 iteration to reach the following result :
a = 0.0796 B = 10.
S=
9.77 C= 6283.
h= 63.cm
9.77
s=
0.2645 xlO-.
C= 6283.cm 3/atm
k= 0.1 darcy
h= 100.cm s= 10.
37
C= 6283.cm 3 /atm
38
00
M
0
Ln
N
O \ o b
oc)
. . . .
. . . .
M O M
\ o r 4 0 0
\o
\o
1
I
0,
rl
\o
Ln
O b v )
rl
\o
rl
. . . .
o o d m
cnn
v
\D
M
00
\o
r(
rl
m m 0 0
ocd
1
I
r c k
I1
rl
X
II
&
UI
rl
o r l a
rl
. . . .
0
O r l r l L n
I
r l r l m
d
0
0
00
d
. . . .
. . . .
r c r l m
O O M
4 4 0 0
-3
\o
\o
\o
rl
rl
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
O
N r l 0 0
N
N O M
r l r l 0 0
II
II
II
I1
O d M
?Id00
\o
r l r l a o
\o
II
II
II
I1
e m m u
I
c,
rl
0
0
rl
00
rl
II
4:
39
II
N
\o
II
II
v)
ESTIMATION OF
k. s and C
40
the
Gauss method.
4.5.1.THE GAUSS METHOD WITH APPLICATIONS
The derivatives required to perform the linearization
of the nonlinear functions and to construct the,normal equations are the same as in Appendix 8.1. The system to be
solved has now only three equations in the three unknowns.
The FORTRAN program in Appendix 8.5 is a small modification
of that in Appendix 8.2.
Using the same data as in section 4.4.2 and the initial
guess employed when attempting to estimate the four parameters
k, h, s and C, i. e . , k=0.01 darcy, s=7.0, C=20000. cm3/atm,
the Gauss method was applied, producing the results shown in
Appendix 8.5, Example 4.5.1-1 :
k=0.01536 darcy
s=14.66
Number of iterations
C=19823. cm3/atm
SSR=1.638 atm2
24 (hr/d)
41.
(4.5.1-1)
0
v4
42
or
C = 2 0 886. cm /atm
T h i s r e s u l t i s c l o s e t o t h a t o b t a i n e d by t h e Gauss method
and may i n d e e d b e u s e d as t h e i n i t i a l g u e s s whenever i t i s poss i b l e t o draw t h e u n i t s l o p s t r a i g h t l i n e t h r o u g h t h e e a r l y t i me d a t a .
In o r d e r t o p e r f o r m t h e s e m i - l o g a n a l y s i s i t i s always
h e l p f u l t o have a n i d e a where t h a t s t r a i g h t l i n e b e g i n s . One
c r u d e e s t i m a t e may be o b t a i n e d w i t h t h e f o r m u l a f o r t h e time
necessary f o r the storage effects t o d i e out
tD > (60
3 . 5 s ) CD
(4.5.1- 2)
(4.5.1-3)
43
7..
6 ..
5.
4.
2.
1
0
l&-l
: 44
(0
I.
.r
and
..:. . ...(4.5.1-4)
s =
us[%
- log[
9.079
]+
3.23)
0.039x0.90x6.7x10~(0.2)2
5.56
It is clear that the results from the two methods disagree completely. The permeability predicted by the conventional analysis is 40.9 % below and the skin factor is 62.1 %
below. One of the reasons for the mis-interpretation in the
conventional analysis may be due to the differences between the
true and the predicted values for the beginning of the semi log straight, the later having been obtained from the matching.
A second explanation could be the fact that the semi-log
straight line is not clearly defined because only a few points
are really representing infinite-acting behavior. Besides that,
the eye-ball fit may be inaccurate in some cases, where small
changes in the position of the drawn line may change the
answers considerably.
In order to investigate further these possibilities we
plotted in 4.5.1-3 the initial data, the pressure drops generated using the solution from the Gauss method up to 100 hours,
and the pressure drops generated with the solution from
the
conventional analysis. A program to generate pressure data
appears in Appendix 8.6. This program can also be used
to
obtain at least a rough idea about the solution before applying
the Gauss method because using initial guesses too far from
45
Y)
0
y,
46
Y)
47
a
w
H
P=z
m c ,
mcd
rl
rl
00
00
M
\o
M
W
rl
In
00
M I n
0 0 0
rlrll-i
x
0
\DQON
. . .
II
II
II
N I n
N I n
N I n
4l-i
\o
M
M \ o N
\o
m m e
0 0 4 m - 4
. . .
x
W
M \ o N
I n \ o o 3
r l e m
. . .
I n \ D m
r l e m
. . .
0 0 0
0 0 0
II
II
II
& t n U
Actnu
& t n U
II
II
II
& t n U
l-i
rl
It
II
II
tn
tn
. . .
o m 0
4 0
4 -
:.c , k5.
. . .
0
N
24
II
. . .
0 - 0
0
0
0
II
0
0
0
II
II
II
II
a t n u
48
0
0
. m. 0.
0
0
0
r\l
II
II
II
a t n u
II
&
II
II
SSR
n - np
(4.5.2-1)
....... (4.5.2-2)
*
49
where :
='
ta/2;n-np
{V
* * +
(ep)}
= /EMS
eiif
mate of parameter
eiii
k =0.01536 darcy
=14.66
C =19823. cm3/atm
--
t0.025;22
2.074
50
eill
ei
0.1953936 x
ei
33
0.2978872
22
0.3849717
1 02
1 06
EMS =
--
SSR
n- n p
1*638
25-3
= 0.074454
F o r t h e s t a n d a r d e r r o r s we c a l c u l a t e
* *
t V (k )I'
* *
{V ( s
)I'
[EMS
= /EMS
* *
I V (C 11% = JEMS
. eil;
0.001206148
ei22' = 1 . 6 9 3
e i 3 3 + - 148.9
Hence, t h e i n t e r v a l s become, w i t h 9 5 % o f c o n f i d e n c e ,
0.01286 4 k ( d a r c y )
11.15 4
19514.
<
0.01786
4 18.17
Ecm3X 1 4 20132.
For a h i g h e r c o n f i d e n c e , f o r i n s t a n c e 9 9 % , t h e i n t e r v a l s
would i n c r e a s e i n t h e i r l e n g t h s . E v i d e n t l y t h e y a r e always
f u n c t i o n o f t h e q u a l i t y and number of d a t a p o i n t s u s e d . The
h i g h e r t h e number o f p o i n t s , t h e n a r r o w e r t h e c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l , and t h e h i g h e r o u r c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e p o i n t a n s w e r s .
I t i s p o s s i b l e now t o e x p l a i n from a n o t h e r p o i n t o f
view why t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e f o u r p a r a m e t e r s -'
k h, s , and
C was n o t p o s s i b l e . S i n c e t h e m a t r i x E was i l l - c o n d i t i o n e d ,
51
the elements of its inverse were large in magnitude, producing a large condition number. The diagonal elements of El
being too high yield confidence intervals so wide that we
can no longer place any confidence in the estimates. They
become totally meaningless, as many completely different
equally acceptable solutions may be found.
4.5.3.THE GAUSS-MARQUARDT METHOD WITH PENALTY FUNCTIONS
Suppose that for simplicity we assume the same constraints on the reservoir parameters as before :
0 4
0 4
k(darcy)
S
1.0
(4.5.3-1)
6 30.
4
6.
10
52
00
00
M
\o
00
M
\D
\o
l-l
Is
I "
00
00
M
\o
l-l
d
0
0
0
In
\o
v)
4t
d
1
53
8 at
each
(4.5.4-1)
where k stands for the k s iteration, -+D is the step direction
and p is the so-called step size, although if is not necessarily a unit vector.
The step direction if is simply determined by
if=d
(4.5.4-2)
10 5
0.17238
10'
-0.27351
Applying Eq.(4.5.4-l),
it is evident that in order to
produce a positive value for the permeability the relaxation
54
other two
would
would
limit.
55
(f) .Example
fact
provides a larger feasible region than the Gauss method. The
initial value of the parameter A used in the Marquardt algorithm may be required to considerably larger than the normally recomended value of 0.01.
Thus, since the inclusion of penalty functions and the
Marquardt variation requires practically no additional computational time, it is always advisable to use them in order
to increase the region of convergence. This is particularly
true when the initial guess is difficult because we do not
have a good idea about the actual reservoir properties.
To provide another way of viewing the behavior of the
different methods employed the results at each iteration
were plotted in Figs. 4.5.5-1 and 4.5.5-2, for the initial
guess k=0.004 darcy, s=5.0 and C=20000.cm 3 /atm.
Fig.4.5.5-1 shows the evolution of the two reservoir
k and s. The third one (C) did not experience conparameters siderable changes during the procedure because we started
with a value very close to the "actual" (estimated) answer.
The general trends are similar since the principles are the
same for all methods. However, it is easy to recognize the
benefits achieved through the use of penalty functions (or
perhaps other types of constraints) which prevent the solution from staying too far from the path that gives the fastest rate of convergence, and eventualy from wandering out of
the feasible region.
Fig.4.5.5-2 presents the behavior of the residuals. The
Gauss-Marquardt method proved to be the most efficient in this
particular example because its sum of squares of residuals
had the biggest decline initialy and remained smaller through
out the whole calculation. Furthermore, it converged to the
same point in fewer iterations.
56
c
I
57
..
MULTI-LAYER SYSTEMS
kl
0.01 darcy
k2 = 0.02 darcy
c $ ~
$2
0.10
= 0.20
59
s1 = 5
s
2 = 10
rW1
qt
10 cm
hl= h2 = 100 cm
rw2
= 100
cm3 / s
= 2ooo.x
IT
= i -
-/I=
c12
= v q=f-i
CZ1 =
c22
-- 2rh
u
200.
0.002
x IT
(4.6-1)
C hj
j=l
2
C s.k.h
J J j
-s = J- =1
2
C k. h
j=l J j
60
(4.6-2)
0:
v)
v)
c,
cd
4
X
: x
m
w
M
0
M
d
4
4
v)
' w
00
(v
00
00
'm
Ln
4
0
00
00
N
v)
0,
w
m
(v
0
4
4
N
d
v)
Ln
0
4
M
b
m
m
w
4
N
I
0
4
X
=I
0
H
kl
M
W
d
N
4
M
N
00
a3
r'J
(v
\o
v)
0
0
rl
The average permeability is therefore a thickness weighted average o f the two individual permeabilities and the
average skin is a permeability/thickness - weighted average
of the two skin factors.
Starting with two diferent initial guesses we obtained
two distinct set of parameters. Although the sum,of squares of
residuals are not the same, they :are. quite acceptable considering that only 13 data points were used. Besides that, there
was no point in continuing iterating because the estimated parameters failed to change by more than 0.01 % after a certain
number of iterations. Notice however that the average values
of permeability and skin are very similar and also close
to
the values calculated from the actual data E = 0.0150
and
s = 8.33. For other initial guesses we would have reached approximately the same average values because the behavior of an
infinite acting multi-layer system can be represented by that
of a single layer with average properties. The approximation
is s o good that practically speaking we would have an infinite
number of possible combinations resulting in almost the same
pressure behavior. Thus, the best that can be estimated using
only the transient pressure data are the average properties of
the multi-layer infinite reservoir.
a
This can be done more simply by using the data of
multi-layer system in the Gauss method for a single layer having average properties as defined by the following expressions:
n8
E = C
h
j=l j
(4.6-3)
(4.6-4)
62
rW
(4.6- 5)
63
RESERVOIR
5.1.
EYJ
the
(5.1-2)
=
(5.1-3)
64
Gwf(Z1
qt
K1(YjJi)GI
1 1 (Y j
&K
. . . . . . (5.1-5)
where :
Yj = re
j
(5.1-6)
= Io (Cr.Jz)
s.a.JZ
J J
KO ( c r . f i )
s.a.JZ K (a fi)
J J
1 j
6K
/5
I1
(a.fi)
(5.1-7)
(5.1-8)
65
nll
-s
PS
s .$ .h.r2
JJJej
j=1
nR $ .h.r
JJej
j=l
(5.1-9)
66
6. NONLINEAR ESTIMATION OF RESERVOIR PARAMETERS - PERMEABILITIES, AVERAGE SKIN FACTOR, STORAGE COEFFICIENT
AND EXTERNAL RADII - FINITE TWO - LAYER RESERVOIR
-0 < r
< lo6 cm
el
0 < k
0 <
< 1.darcy
< r
< lo6 cm
e2
< 100.
0 <
67
<lo6 cm3/atm
0.25 ft
pl = p 2
$1 = $ * = 0.20
0.5 cp
hl = h2
t,
= c
t,
psi
-1
qt = 100. bbl/d
25 ft
kl = 100. md
-rel
- -
-s
10. md
10.
r
- e2
- - 2000.
500.
rW
rW
125. ft
3810. cm
r
= 500. ft = 15240. cm
e2
68
C = 2.rrv
ct :r
CD =
5.2x.rrxlOO
520.x.rrcm3 /atm
For small times one can use a smaller radius since the
transient flow still prevails. It is helpful to plot the data
to get an idea about the beginning of the boundary effects.
Other tricks may have to be used to avoid number overflow
in the machine. For instance, the Stehfest algorithm parameter
N may initially be set at N = 4 and after some time changed to
N = 8.
69
\o
M
M
~
\o
rl
0
U
0
d
Ln
4
Ln
rl
~
d
N
Ln
l-l
rl
rl
Qo
Qo
Qo
rl
rl
rl
\o
M
M
9
rl
~-
0
0
0
v)
rl
rl
0
0
rl
Ln
00
rl
70
7. CONCLUSIONS
71
possible
to estimate the individual permeabilities and radii, the average skin factor and the wellbore storage constant, under
special circumstances where the different stages of depletion
are fairly well-defined by the pressure decline curve. Therefore, the log-log type curve matching proposed by Tariq(1977)
can be done automatically.
( 4 ) The Gauss-Marquardt method proved to be necessary
in cases of very ill-conditioned coefficient matrices and advantageous in well-behaved situations, requiring negligible
additional computing time in comparison to the Gauss method.
(5) The constraints on the parameters are helpful in
accelerating convergence as well as avoiding divergence of
the iterative procedure.
( 6 ) The main advantage of the automatic regression
72
perform the conventional analysis. Also, the plot may indicate the presence of.boundary effects or any heterogeneity
during the test, which will determine the kind of reservoir
model to be employed. Finally, data points that are clearly
out of the general trend should be considered in excessive
error and not be included.
73
8. APPENDICES
8.1.
is given by (4.4.1-2).
, we can write
2.rrB = c2k
a = C1/K
Hence,
Let
c l S m K1(clm)
74
ak
(AUX2) .AUX3
where :
=
AUX3
[-
c.z] 2
AUX4
L
AUX5
ah
(qt"JXl)/(z.h.AUX2)
AUX3
q t' c2 .k.a2.[Kl(aG)
AUX3. (AUX2) *
ac
qt/AUX3
75
or
For w = l we o b t a i n :
76
c:
***
an
4
1:
w
a
0
z
Q)
CI
z
CI
Q)
vo
if
s
LL
Ls .
i
i
uuuu0
0:
77
0
c
f
P
*V
U
4
0
0
x
U
E
w
ti
fU
78
c.
'
'
-5 O0
0
c
0
W
:
u
79
..
0
0
c
';t
c.
?
0
0
c
1
U
c.
W
c.
n
c
Y
'c.
D,
0
W
0
0
'Z
2
c.
"?
0
0
c
0
c
81
. .
.
,
..
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S h Q D O - N
0000--r
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0' 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
S-QDO-Nn
u m 9 r - - 0 0 . 0 - NnULnSlsQDON
N
C
.
I
Nn ~
~ u u u u u u u u u u m m
n n~ n ~n n
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Y Y Y Y Y Y Y L L YYYYLLYYU. YUYYYYYYLLU.
N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N
NNNNNNNNNN
w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w w' w w w w w w w w w w
-12-1-12.4-14
8222-1-1A-1A
O
W
ww
Z U
Ot
uv
t
U Y
8
k
0
U W
am
-I
a0
Ut
I I
.....
..
.\
.....
- N C I ) ~ ~
a2
. . .
...
%
W
6
c.
0:
w - - l
n
U
m0:
: :
I
.
I
I
*I
..
'
.. . .
in5
t
E.
OUl
QLN
o
0
VU
a3
.
.
.
.
.
.;
.
.'
...
c w m
W N W
ccc
..
!,..
I
I
I
I
I
'I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
! =
85
.
.
..
.
.
. '.
<
'
..
.. .
.
:,
.
.
.
i
'
.t
- 0
U
(-
86
..
E
n
: Ys
.
'
t0
Y
. .
87
c.
z
W
..
..
.
t
I
, . ?
. .,...
. i
fI '
c-
tip
t-
ua
w u
K 3
LI0
W
Is
a
Ial
K U
* O
-K
a
z
O U
Y X
I-
cn
zu,
w w
m
t- m
u-l
ZY O
Z
Y U
W
U O
I ? :
u
0
ULhQbQ
k"
RS
89
n
w
n
H
3X
I-
5!U
-1
cu
'
0
W
90
8 8
*8
t 8x wr
i t;GO
i
* m t
3 w t
t8
8
8
8
8
*
8
8
8
8
8
=z;4 git
mp:
a*
rw
t d U
(30
Y Z
out
m o
8
8
ut*
tux
*zu
O W &
n u m
*8
8
8
8
*
8
8
8
a z w
an
n
a
-
5* : 8
.
a w
r
n
* - I
f* xf
*
-8
8
*
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
*
8
8
8
*8
m o
W
Y O
uo
ucy
..
E
a
*)
'D
s e\ o?
I-
2
s:
6
0
t
p:
8
8
8
8
9
4
2 0
*
a
N
.
.
~ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
0 0 :
~ n o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
-nmouloooooooo6ooooooooooo
....................
. .
C C
0.
E ?
91
o
U
q
l
O
~
q
Q
c.
92
8.3.
Defining
AUX2
27raBfi K l ( a n )
we rewrite
Thenwe have :
where :
= a G
AUXl
KO(X)
AUXZ
2aB.X.K1(X)
AUX3
K1(X)
s.X.K1(X)
X.K1(X)
93
TO
AUX2
AUX4 = [ - + C.z]
AUX 1
2
aGwf
as
( q t / z ) .AUX2
. X . K1(X)
AUX5
Thus, w i t h t h e new a u x i l i a r y p a r a m e t e r s t h e p r e s s u r e
drop a t t h e w e l l b o r e becomes, i n Laplace s p a c e :
94
i.
*8 . * * * * * 8
8
4 s
W
D:
- 1 0
(2-
u
LL
a
6
8
-1
!i
c.
i s
E F
I
I
o:
ocl,
95
.
O
-
0,
CI
3a
Ew n
J
J
.
0-
O<
x.
4
e
t
H
.4
0
JUY
SOif
000
0
0
.V
96
0
N
c
a
z
fK
0
0
E
W
*
m
B
-I
nz
d 0
v!
. C C
0 II I1
I1 ')n
?nS S
CI
" 0 0
w o o
97
c.
01
Z
0
U
o
u
03
a n m
Orl,
..
98
n
0
m
V
8I I "
L
i i
I I
I I
o w
DP
99
.. .
al
L
c
c
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184
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9. NOMENCLATURE
9.1.
ROMAN SYMBOLS
c
compressibility, atm-'
ei
EMS
ES
layer thickness, cm
li
Identity matrix
Ct
KO
222
permeability, darcy
np
pressure, atm
pj(r,t)
Pi
pj
pressure in the
i-th
layer at distance
Pwf
q
qt
r
rW
-s
PS
radial distance, cm
wellbore radius, cm
223
time, s
US
scaled vector
-h
-b
linear parameter
z = argument of a function in Laplace space
GREEK SYMBOLS
9.2.
difference
Q(r,z)
Ap
Ap(r,t)
pi
Apwf
k/@pc
{APwf}
t=ti
APwf
TI
6 =
penalty function
(9
objective function
p =
224
parameter in the limit for terminating the iterative process in the nonlinear regression analysis
+
8 = vector of
ters
+*
0
9.3.
$I =
5=
p =
D = dimensionless
e
external
iteration number
parameter
wellbore
wf
flowing wellbore
225
10. BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Abramowitz, M. and Stegun, I.A., editors (1970).: Handbook of Mathematical Functions, Dover Publications,
Inc., New York.
2 . Afifi, A.A. and Azen, S.P.
6. Churchill, R.V. (1972).: Operational Mathematics (3rd edition), McGraw-Hill Book Company, Inc., New York.
7. Coats, K.H., Dempsey, J.R. and Henderson, J.H. (1970,
March).:
226
227
"The Practical
Aspects of Interlayer Crossflow", J. Pet. Tech., 589-594.
Statistical Methth
ods (7- edition), The Iowa State University Press, Ames
Iowa, USA.
228