Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Valuing Stocks
Topics Covered
Quelle: http://blog.paulahogan.com/Portals/167699/docs/2013%20World%20Market%20Capitalization.pdf
Div1 P1 P0
Expected Return r
P0
Div1 P1 P0
Expected Return r
P0
P0
10
11
Div1
Div2
Div H PH
P0
...
1
2
H
(1 r ) (1 r )
(1 r )
H - Time horizon for your investment.
12
13
14
Example
Current forecasts are for XYZ Company to pay dividends of $3,
$3.24, and $3.50 over the next three years, respectively. At the end
of three years you anticipate selling your stock at a market price of
$94.48. What is the price of the stock given a 12% expected return?
3.00
3.24
3.50 94.48
PV
1
2
3
(1.12 ) (1.12 )
(1.12 )
PV $75.00
15
16
Div1
EPS1
Perpetuity P0
or
r
r
Assumes all earnings are paid to
shareholders.
Div1
P0
rg
Given any combination of variables in the
equation, you can solve for the unknown
variable.
17
18
Div1
$3.00
P0
$75.00
r g .12 .08
19
$3.00
$100
.12 g
g .09
Answer
The market is assuming the
dividend will grow at 9% per
year, indefinitely.
20
21
22
23
24
Example
Our company forecasts to pay a $5.00 dividend next year, which
represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a
12% expected return. Instead, we decide to retain 40% of the
earnings at the firms current return on equity of 20%. What is the
value of the stock before and after the retention decision?
No Growth
5
P0
$41.67
.12
With Growth
25
Example
Our company forecasts to pay a $5.00 dividend next year, which
represents 100% of its earnings. This will provide investors with a
12% expected return. Instead, we decide to retain 40% of the
earnings at the firms current return on equity of 20%. What is the
value of the stock before and after the retention decision?
No Growth
5
P0
$41.67
.12
With Growth
g .20.40 .08
3
P0
$75.00
.12 .08
26
27
Web Resources
www.ganesha.org/invest/index.html
www.nasdaq.com
www.nyse.com
www.fool.com/School/HowtoValueStocks.htm
www.zacks.com
Investools.com
www.morningstar.net
www.brill.com
28