Oracle AFL Fixture Proposal

September 2012

The addition of the 17th and 18th teams to the competition have been a tipping point in the
equity in the fixture, with return rounds reduced to just 5 games; less than 30% of the
available competing teams.
Season 2012 saw an inequitable draw, with Collingwood playing the eventual bottom 6 sides
just 6 times (ie each side once), compared to Adelaide who played the bottom 6 sides a
combined 9 times, as a prime example. In contrast, Adelaide played eventual top 8 sides just
8 times, compared to Collingwood's 10 times.
With only 5 return rounds there is a higher probability that the fixture will return an
inequitable draw. The more return rounds, the more likely irregularities in the draw will
even out. The solutions are to reduce the number of rounds to 17, increase the number of
rounds, or introduce a seeding system after every team has played each other once.
The seeding system would strike the right balance of fairness and commercial opportunities,
as it would retain the existing 22 rounds and attract a higher live and TV interest in the last 5
weeks of the Home and Away season.
The seeding system would work as follows:

Every team plays each other once in the first 17 rounds

After 17 rounds the 18 teams are divided into 3 groups in order of position on the
ladder (1-6, 7-12, 13-18)
Teams play the remaining 5 rounds against teams in their group; a return match on
rounds 1-17
No team can finish outside of their group on the ladder after R22, ie not lower than
6th, not higher than 7th or lower than 12th, not higher than 13th
The final 8 system would remain unchanged, with the top 6 automatically qualifying
after R17, with 7th & 8th in play for Group 2

Andrew Hind 2012

Oracle AFL Fixture Proposal

September 2012
A hypothetical ladder at R17 would have worked as follows:

The benefits of seeded return rounds would outweigh the uncertainty it would create in the
fixture, as certainty is currently coming at the cost of attendances and TV audiences in the
final weeks. It would enable optimal scheduling of venues and timeslots to suit the quality
of competing teams, and avoid the situation of dead rubbers or games between Group 3
teams occupying prime slots on Friday and Saturday nights.
The final five rounds of this season have seen disappointing crowds due to a combination of
uneven games and "consumer fatigue". For example, Essendon v Collingwood in the final
round attracted just 56k compared to the evenly matched Collingwood and West Coast in
the middle of the year, which attracted 63k despite one of the teams being an interstate
side.
The response of crowds to finals would suggest fans would welcome the anticipation of a
rejuvenated fixture for the last 5 rounds despite the uncertainty of knowing where and
against whom the games would be played.

Andrew Hind 2012