Professional Documents
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Contents
♦ Introduction to the concept of “inflation” – Wholesale Price Index and
Consumer Price Index
♦ Money losing value due to reduction in purchasing power
♦ Concept of interest as compensation in purchasing power of money
♦ Four tier structure for rates of interest in any economy
♦ Compounding and discounting processes
♦ Application of time value of money to business decisions
♦ Numerical exercises for practice
rather than “consumer price index” basis although the consumer price index increase is also published
regularly. At present the wholesale price index inflation is around 3%. We will explain this concept
through an example.
Example no. 1
I had spent Rs. 100/- in getting a basket of commodities one year ago. If the rate of inflation is say 3%,
now I will be required to spend Rs. 103/- to get the same basket of commodities. How do we get
Rs.103/-? Rs. 100/- x 1.03 = Rs. 103/-. This means that due to “inflation”, the purchasing power of the
local currency decreases with the passage of time. This is exactly the concept of “time value of
money”. In simple words, “time value of money” means that with the passage of time, money loses its
value.
Is there a situation in which the prices decrease over a period of time and
opposite of “inflation” takes place?
Usually in a developing country, such a situation does not arise, as the demand is always greater than
supply. However currently Japan is experiencing “deflation” in which current prices would be less than
the past prices. This is harmful to a developing economy, as units that save money would get very low
interest or no interest. Hence there will be no incentive for the units to invest money in bonds, fixed
deposits etc.
1
“Rate of inflation coming down” - What does it mean? Does it mean that the prices of commodities are coming
down or the increase in prices of commodities is coming down? – Answer is: The increase in prices of commodities
is coming down; in actual terms, the prices of commodities are not reducing.
What are the factors that a bank would consider to determine its lending rate?
Average interest paid out on deposits and expenses
Minimum expected profit from lending operations
Degree of risk in lending – specific to a borrower, depending upon his business
Continuing discussion on Tier 3, we see that the minimum rate of interest on loans would be 7% + 3%
+ 1% = 11%. This is the lowest interest that any bank offers now in India on loans. There is a specific
name for this rate. It is referred to as “Prime Lending Rate” or PLR. The bank would add further to this
rate depending upon risk etc., which is called “risk premium”2. This would again be different from
borrower to borrower.
2
This is the reason that for different activities, the same bank charges different rates of interest at the
same time. Similarly for different borrowers pursuing the same activity, the rates of interest would be
different as per perception of risk associated with them.
From whose point of view? - Both from the points of view of the owner and the lender/investor. This
compensation is referred to as “risk premium” of the project.
The question that could come to one’s mind while reading these lines is:
Why should a project owner expect a higher rate of return than the rate of interest on loans?
Consider the following and learn the risk associated with a project.
♦ The project owner’s investment does not have the backing of assets. A lender, on the contrary,
has backing of assets for his loan.
♦ The enterprise pays the lender interest periodically. The owners on the contrary, get return in
the form of dividend. This is not certain.
♦ Besides interest, the enterprise should also have sufficient surplus after paying interest to
repay the loan amount
♦ Risk of project failure affects the owners more than the lenders for the same reason as
mentioned in the first bullet point
Example No. 2
Let us summarise the above as under:
Rate of inflation = Tier no. 1 = 3% p.a.
Rate of interest on investment = Tier no. 2 = 7% p.a.
Rate of interest on loans = Tier no. 3 = 11% p.a.
Rate of return from investment in projects = Tier no. 4 = 15% p.a. (This is just an example. The rate of
return expected from a project would actually depend upon the degree of risk associated with the
project in the perception of the project owners primarily and project lenders secondarily)
Let us apply this formula to another investment example and determine the future value.
Example no. 3
You have a fixed deposit for Rs.10,000/- in a bank. Terms of deposit are:
Period – Two years
Rate of interest = 10% p.a.
The bank does not pay interest periodically. Interest gets accumulated to the principal amount; it gets
paid at the end of the period along with principal amount.
Does the future value alter with the change in the frequency of compounding?
In the above example, we have assumed that the bank pays interest at the frequency of one year.
Suppose the bank pays interest at a higher frequency, would the future value turn out to be different?
Let us see the following example.
Example no. 4
Suppose the bank increases the frequency of compounding from yearly to half-yearly. What will be the
future value? We can use the same formula with an amendment. The amended formula would be:
nx2
Future value = Present investment x (1 + r/200)
As interest gets compounded twice as frequently, r is divided by 200. Similarly the number of periods
for compounding also gets doubled and hence it is 2 x n instead of “n”. Accordingly, in our formula,
what would be the values of “r” and “n”?
r = 5% and n = 4
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With these values, the future value FV at T2 works out to 10,000 x (1.05) = Rs.12,155/-.
Similarly we can see that in case the frequency of compounding increases to quarterly from half-
yearly, the future value works out to Rs. 12,184/-.
Let us summarise what we have learnt so far on “compounding and future value”:
♦ The amount that you get back at the end is called “future value”
♦ Future value is determined by “compounding”
♦ Future value depends upon:
♦ Rate of interest and
♦ Frequency of compounding
♦ The multiplying factor is known as “compounding factor”
♦ The more the frequency, the higher the amount of interest
Doubling period
A frequent question posed by an investor is: “How much time it will take for my investment to double
in value”? This question can be answered by a rule known as “Rule of 72”. It is an approximate way of
finding out the doubling period. Suppose the rate of interest is 12%. The doubling period is 6 years.
A more accurate answer can be had by a better formula like:
0.35 + 69/interest rate in % terms. Employing the same rate of 12%, we find that the doubling period
is 6.10 years instead of 6 years. This is more accurate than the Rule of 72 formula.
Example no. 5
We want to get Rs.108/- at the end of T1. The desired rate of interest is 8% per annum. What is the
amount that we should invest at T0?
Can we use the “future value” formula here?
Yes – with necessary modification as under:
n
Future value = Present investment x (1 + r/100)
--------------------
n
(1 + r/100)
The reciprocal of compounding factor is referred to as “discounting factor. We need to multiply the
n
future value by this discounting factor and not divide. In the above formula, 1/(1+r/100) is referred
to as “discounting factor”.
Example no. 6
We want to get Rs.10,000/- after two years. The desired rate of interest is 12% p.a. The frequency of is
yearly.
What is the present value of this future sum of Rs.10,000/-?
Present value = Rs. 7,971/-
The two-step process in determining present value is:
We have already seen under “future value” that higher frequency of compounding increases the future
value. Conversely, higher frequency of discounting decreases the present value. The students are
advised to take the following exercise and verify for themselves.
Exercise No. 1
After three years we are likely to get a windfall of Rs.1,00,000/-. What will be the present value of this
windfall, in case the expected rate of return is 15% p.a.?
Answer – Rs.65,751/-
Let us summarise what you have learnt so far on “discounting and present value”:
♦ Discounting is the converse of compounding
♦ It is used when you want to determine the present value of a future sum
♦ Just as there is a compounding factor, there is a discounting factor
♦ In case you determine the discounting factor, you should multiply the future value by this
factor to get the present value
♦ The more the frequency the of discounting, the less will be the value of present value
♦ Present value will always be less than future value by the same token of inflation.
T1 – Rs.30 lacs
T2 – Rs.35 lacs
T3 – Rs.40 lacs
T4 – Rs.45 lacs
We want to evaluate our investment decision in the project. How do we do this? By applying
discounting factor for 20% to the future earnings.
The “sum total” of all the T0 values = Rs.94.13 lacs = Present value of future earnings for a period of
four years.
What does this mean? It means that at 20% expected return the project has given back only Rs.94.13
lacs. This is against Rs.100 lacs that have been invested in it. That is, the present value of future
earnings is less than original investment. Hence we will not invest in the project. The difference
between the present value of future earnings and the investment at T 0 is called the “Net present
value” or NPV. This is one of the fundamental methods of selecting a project.
Exercise No. 2
We are investing in a project Rs. 1000 lacs. The rate of return that we expect from the project is 18%
p.a. The estimated future earnings for three years are:
T1 = Rs.450 lacs
T2 = Rs.500 lacs
T3 = Rs.550 lacs
The above are also referred to as cash flows 3(in this case cash inflows)
Examine as to whether it is worthwhile investing in the project. Find out the Net Present Value of the
project.
Answer:
Present value of future earnings = Rs.1071 lacs
Net Present Value = Rs.71 lacs
We can invest in the project
3
Cash flow could either be cash inflow or cash outflow. When an investment is made at T0 it is called “cash out
flow”. Similarly when returns are received they are called “cash in flows. Cash out flow is denoted by mentioning
the figure within bracket like (50 lacs)
Step 2 = discounting the payment expected by the rate of return, i.e., 8% p.a., we can determine the
present value of the future cash flows. It is Rs.1080.30. This means that an investor will be willing to
purchase this bond now from the market provided the market price of this bond is less than
Rs.1080.30.
Exercise No. 3
We have a bond with the face value of Rs.5,000/-. The interest on the bond is Rs.600/- per year. We
are supposed to get a premium on the bond of Rs.250/- at the end of the maturity period. Expected
rate of return by us = 10% p.a. Suppose the maturity is after 5 years, what is the price at which an
investor would be willing to purchase it from us?
(Note – please add the premium amount to the face value. You will get Rs.5,250/- on maturity)
Answer: Present value of future returns = Rs.5534/-. An investor will be willing to pay
anything less than this value for purchasing the bond from you.
This is similar to finding out the net present value in the case of projects. We discount the expected
sales by the expected rate of return of 15% p.a. This determines the present value of the expected
sales. Let us compare this with the total product development expenses.
Exercise No. 4
Find out the net present value in the above example. Also confirm that the total product development
costs stand fully recovered at T3.
Let us summarise what we have learnt on application of “Time value of money” to business
♦ Compounding and discounting have a number of applications to Finance decisions.
♦ Compounding has greater application to personal investment while discounting has greater
application to business.
♦ Discounting is useful in a number of decisions like project, product development, opening a
branch office etc.
♦ Bond valuation is also done through discounting.
Let us look at one more example for reinforcing our learning. Let us select the
best project out of the three projects proposed.
Consider the following 3 alternative projects. Assumptions are also given below:
(Rupees in Lacs)
Project 1 Project 2 Project 3
As Project 3 has the highest NPV it would be selected. NPV = PV of future earnings (-) original
investment. Accordingly, the net present values for the three projects would be:
Project 1 76.44 lacs
Project 2 56.29 lacs
Project 3 136.91 lacs
On the basis of net present value, project 3 would get selected.
Concept of annuity
So far we have seen the following in respect of application of time value of money:
Investment lump sum at T0 and get lump sum at Tn = Future value; process is “compounding”. This is
called future value of a single stream.
Suppose we are given a future value and want to know how much should be invested at present. We
use the process that is converse of compounding and this is called “discounting”. In order to get lump
sum after a given period, we should invest the present value at the beginning, again a lump sum. This
is called the present value of a single stream.
Invest lump sum at T0 in a project and get annual returns. The returns will not be equal to each other.
To determine the present value of the future returns to determine Net Present Value = Present value;
process is “discounting”. This is the example of present value of multiple streams.
Annuity refers to “multiple stream” of cash flows but which are equal to each other and
occurring annually. The cash flows could either be in flows or out flows. This means that the following
alternatives are available to us when we are talking of “annuity”.
♦ We invest at the beginning one lump sum amount and get returns over a period of time
that are equal to each other. The cash in flows that are equal to each other are called
“annuity”. Herein we use what is known as Present Value Interest Factor Annuity
(PVIFA). We multiply the Annuity by this factor and get the present value of the future
cash flows in one shot. Then we compare this present value with our proposed investment
at T0 taking decision on investment. We invest provided the Present value of future
annuities is at least equal to our investment at T0.
♦ We invest in equal instalments over a period of time and get one lump sum at the end of
the period. The cash outflows that are equal to each other are called “annuity”. Herein
we use what is known as Future Value Interest Factor Annuity (FVIFA) .We multiply
the Annuity by this factor and get the future value of the cash out flows in one shot.
Let us study the following examples to understand the concept of “annuity”.
Example no. 10
We are able to invest every year Rs.1000/- for a period of 5 years. We expect a return of 10% p.a.
What will be the value of this investment at the end of 5 years?
Let us represent this by way of a timeline
At T0 T1 T2 T3 T4
T5
Investment = zero 1,000/- 1,000/- 1,000/- 1,000/- 1,000/-
Can we use the future value formula, find out the future value of each stream of Rs.1000/- and add
them up? Thus T1 investment would earn interest for 4 years, the 2 nd year investment would earn
interest for 3 years, the 3rd year investment would earn interest for 2 years, the 4 th year investment
would earn interest for 1 year and the last year investment would not earn any interest. Instead of
doing such an elaborate exercise, we use the alternative “FVIFA”.
Practical applications of “Annuity”4 for future value
♦ Life Insurance policy premium
♦ Recurring deposit account with a bank
Example no. 11
Similar in concept to Example no. 10, we can think of investment lump sum at T0 and getting returns
over a period of time, the returns being equal in value. Example is investment in bank deposit floated
by competitive banking industry at present. Each return will be partly principal amount and partly
interest amount. Our aim is to determine the present value of the future returns by discounting them
and comparing the present value with our investment value.
Can we use PVIF and find out the present value of future cash flows? Yes. The cash flow at T 1 is
discounted for one year, the cash flow at the end of the second year is discounted for two years, the
cash flow at the end of the third year is discounted for three years and so on and so forth. Instead of
repeating the discounting process so many times, we have the easy alternative of Present Value
Interest Factor Annuity.
It is okay for discussion. However the students will be interested in knowing as to where he will get the
PVIFA and FVIFA values. These will be available as annexure with any standard textbook on “Financial
Management” and multiply with the annuity to arrive at the Present Value or Future value as the case
may be.
Concept of perpetuity
This is the concept applicable in the case of pension. Pension is taken to be perpetual. Can we find out
the lump sum amount in case the pension amount is given?
Example no. 12
Suppose the pension amount is Rs. 1000/-. The expected rate of return is 10% p.a. What is the core
amount out of which interest is paid? The annual payment is Rs.12,000/-. Hence the lump sum amount
is Annual payment/rate of interest expressed in decimals.
Accordingly the lump sum amount is Rs. 12,000/0.1 = Rs. 1,20,000/-.
4
Annuity could be at a frequency more than one year. In fact in the case of recurring deposit, the annuity is
monthly.
1. Why should return from a project be the highest in the 4-tier interest rate structure?
2. Future value interest factor x Present value interest factor = -----------------------
3. Can you find out the present value of a stream of annuity without using PVIFA? Explain the
process.
4. Find out the present value of a sum of Rs. 10 lacs at the end of five years in case the expected rate
of return is 12% and the compounding is done on half-yearly basis.
5. Suppose you open a recurring deposit account with annual interest of 6%. You open it for a period
of 12 months. The annuity is Rs.500/-. What will be the value at the end of one year?
6. Mr. George is about to retire. The employer places before him two alternatives. Mr. George has to
choose between them. Lump sum Rs. 12 lacs or half-yearly pension of Rs. 79,000/-. Which one
should he choose in case the annual expected return is 10%?
7. What is the present value of an income stream that provides Rs. 2,000/- at the end of year one, Rs.
5000/- at the end of year two and Rs.10,000/- for the next 5 years? Assume the rate of interest to
be 8% p.a.
8. What is the present value of Rs. 5,000/- receivable annually for 30 years if the first receipt occurs
after 5 years and the rate of interest is 10% p.a?