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Tom Meluzn
Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology
Kolejn 2906/4, 612 00 Brno Czech Republic
and
Marek Zinecker
Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology
Kolejn 2906/4, 612 00 Brno Czech Republic
and
Justyna apiska
Faculty of Economics and Management, Nicolas Copernicus University
ul. Gagarina 13a, 87 - 100 Toru, Poland
ABSTRACT
The main objective of this study is to indicate the influence of
local macroeconomic factors, consequently GDP growth rates,
the reference interest rate, industrial production growth rates,
Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) returns and the volume
of private equity investments, on the number and value of
capital raised by IPOs in an emerging market, Poland, over the
period of 2004 to 2012. Our sample includes only local
enterprises that conducted an IPO on the Main Market of the
Warsaw Stock Exchange. Financial and privatized companies
are excluded from the data processing. The Spearman
correlation analysis is used to identify the relations between the
macroeconomic (external) determinants and the number of
listings and the value of capital raised by IPOs. The data is
evaluated at the significance level of =5%. The data is
processed in two ways. Firstly, dependent variables (X1X4)
and
explanatory variables
(Y1Y5)
are analysed
simultaneously, next, the explanatory variables are lagged by
one year. The findings of the simultaneously data analysis can
be summarized as follows: A significant difference was found
to exist between real GDP growth rates and the number of IPOs
and between industrial production growth rates and the number
of listings. GDP growth rates have also a significant positive
influence on the value of capital raised by IPOs. In addition to
that, there exists a statistically significant positive relationship
between the industrial production growth rates and median IPO
value. Surprisingly, there is just a little empirical evidence that a
relationship between explanatory a dependent variables exists
when the macroeconomic indicators are lagged by one year.
Only the pattern of volatility of WIG index returns lead the
median value of capital raised IPOs. The correlation coefficient
between real GDP growth rates and median IPO value is even
negative when we shift dependent variables relative to the
explanatory variables by one year.
3. EMPIRICAL FINDINGS
Table 3 gives an overview of descriptive statistics of annual
IPOs time series and macroeconomic indicators. A total of 218
IPOs were listed during 2004-2012 period on the Main Market
of the Warsaw Stock Exchange including only local enterprises
without financials and privatizations. The total value of capital
raised by companies on this market was 4,301 million EUR.
Prior the financial and economic crisis (2008-2009), there was a
remarkable boom in the number of IPOs which increased from
26 in 2004 to 68 in 2007. The sharp decline in the number of
IPOs in 2008 was followed by a moderate recover of the market
with 16 IPOs in 2010. The average GDP growth rate was 4.32
% and reached its peak level of 6.80 % in 2007 although there
were remarkable values of this indicator during the whole
period 2006-2008. The average industrial production growth
rate was 6.18 % with its highest level of 12.70 % in 2004.
Spectacular values of this indicator can be also observed in
2006 and 2007. The only negative industrial production rate was
registered in 2009 (-3.80 %). The slight downward movement
of the ten-year government bond yields displays the loose
monetary policy executed by the Polish National Bank since
2009. Average changes in the WIG index returns, the index of
the Main List, were 14.84 % while its maximal negative value
of -51.07 % was reached in 2008 and its maximal positive value
of 46.85 % was reached in 2009. Poland attracted the highest
level of private equity investments within the CEE countries in
terms of both the number of deals and the value of invested
capital. The average annual value of capital in-flow reached
0.13 % of GDP in the period 2004-2012.
Table 3: IPOs in the Polish Capital Market - Descriptive
Statistics, 2004-2012
Note: IPOs on the Main Market of the Warsaw Stock Exchange,
without Financials and Privatizations, only Locals
Mean
IPO Activity Indicators
24.22
Number of
Listings/IPOs
477.89
Value of IPOs,
Million
Macroeconomic Indicators
Median
Std
Min
Max
24.00
16.65
8.00
67.00
425.50
362.69
54.80
1340.60
% GDPGR
4.32
4.50
1.67
1.60
6.80
% IPGR
6.18
6.70
5.32
-3.80
12.70
% GBY
5.75
5.78
0.56
5.00
6.90
% WIG
14.84
26.24
29.90
-51.07
46.85
% PEI
0.13
0.13
0.06
0.05
0.22
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
5.30
12.70
6.90
27.94
0.07
3.60
3.60
5.22
33.66
0.05
6.20
12.00
5.23
41.60
0.12
6.80
9.40
5.48
10.39
0.22
5.10
2.70
6.07
-51.07
0.18
1.60
-3.80
6.12
46.85
0.08
3.90
11.10
5.78
18.77
0.19
4.50
6.70
5.96
-20.83
0.18
1.90
1.20
5.00
26.24
0.13
26
535.6
20.6
10.0
24
378.1
15.8
6.7
29
670.7
23.1
10.4
67
1340.6
20.3
8.2
24
425.5
17.7
3.0
8
54.8
6.9
2.5
16
174.2
10.9
11.1
14
151.3
10.8
9.9
10
570.2
57.02
3.8
Source: OECD Stat Extracts, Warsaw Stock Exchange Fact Books, European Venture Capital Association (EVCA) Yearbooks, Polish
National Bank Statistics
Table 2: Analyzed Variables
Data Sources
Dependent Variables
Number of Listings/IPOs
Annual IPO Value, Average IPO Value, Median IPO
Value
Explanatory Variables
% Real GDP Growth Rates (GDPGR)
% Industrial Production Growth Rate (IPGR)
% Ten-Year Government Bond Yields (GBY)
% Change in Stock Market Index Returns (WIG)
Private Equity Investment as % of GDP (PEI)
Calculation
frequency
Million
Expected Sign
+
+
+
+
Variables
X1 & Y1
X1 & Y2
X1 & Y3
X1 & Y4
X1 & Y5
X2 & Y1
X2 & Y2
X2 & Y3
X2 & Y4
X2 & Y5
X3 & Y1
X3 & Y2
X3 & Y3
X3 & Y4
X3 & Y5
X4 & Y1
X4 & Y2
X4 & Y3
X4 & Y4
X4 & Y5
p-value
0.001
0.032
0.847
0.764
0.738
0.042
0.286
0.244
0.831
0.620
0.265
0.406
0.224
0.932
0.881
0.170
0.001
0.865
0.932
0.604
Variables
X1 & Y1
X1 & Y2
X1 & Y3
X1 & Y4
X1 & Y5
X2 & Y1
X2 & Y2
X2 & Y3
X2 & Y4
X2 & Y5
X3 & Y1
X3 & Y2
X3 & Y3
X3 & Y4
X3 & Y5
X4 & Y1
X4 & Y2
X4 & Y3
X4 & Y4
X4 & Y5
p-value
0.796
0.295
0.074
0.057
0.201
0.731
0.546
0.057
0.406
0.431
0.915
0.898
0.194
0.668
0.486
0.010
0.576
0.683
0.002
0.075
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