YGR-5073

Worldwide Market Forecast

For
Commercial Air Transport
2011-2030

May 2011

Marketing
Japan Aircraft Development Corporation

Foreword
The forecast of world air traffic and airplane demand for the next 20 years from year
2010 are described in this document prepared by the Marketing Group of Japan Aircraft
Development Corporation.
This forecast covers jet and turboprop commercial transport more than 15 seats
excluding freighters operated by the world airlines domiciled in the 11 geographical
regions, which are Africa, Asia (exclude Japan and China), China, the Commonwealth
of Independent States(CIS), Eastern Europe, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East,
North America, Oceania and Western Europe.
Data sources of this forecast are International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), OAG
MAX Database, ASCEND Online Fleet, and Global Insight.

Contents
1.

Summary

...................................................................................................

2.

Traffic Forecast

......................................................................................... 8

2.1

Regions

2.2

Relationship among Passenger Traffic, Economy and Yield

2.3

Economic Forecast

2.4

Trend of Yield .......................................................................................... 11

2.5

Passenger Traffic (RPK)

3.

.................................................................................................. 8
.................

............................................................................... 9
....................................................................... 11

Available Seat Kilometer (ASK) ................................................................... 14

3.1

Load Factor ............................................................................................. 14

3.2

ASK Forecast by Region ......................................................................... 15

3.3

ASK Forecast by Region and Range ...................................................... 16

4.

Fleet and Delivery Forecast ........................................................................ 20

4.1

Improvement of Aircraft Utilization ........................................................... 20

4.2

Trend of Airplane Size ............................................................................. 21

4.3

Retirement of Existing Fleet

4.4

Jet Airplane Backlog ............................................................................... 25

4.5

Current and Future Airplane Model ......................................................... 26

4.6

Jet Share in Small Airplane Market ....... 28

4.7

Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast ............................................................ 29

4.8

Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast

5.

Engine Market Forecast

................................................................... 24

..................................................................... 40

5.1

Engine Category and Their Applications

5.2

Engine Deliveries Forecast

6.

Forecast Methodology

.............................................. 35

................................................ 40

...................................................................... 41

................................................................................. 42

ii

1.
z

Summary
Air traffic in 2007 showed steady increase by 7.0% over previous year due to the
rapid growth in Asia/Pacific and Europe region. However, a financial crisis attacked
US Market in 2008 and then affected to the world economy. As the result, air traffic
growth in 2009 was 2% decrease from the previous year. 2010 was a year of strong
recovery in air travel market.
RPK Change from
the Same Month in 2000

MONTHLY TRAFFIC GROWTH IN MAJOR MARKETS

80%
FINANCIAL
CRISIS
SEP. 2008

RPKRevenue Passenger Kilometers

60%
IRAQ WAR
40%
SARS
20%

0%

-20%
USA (BTS)
-40%

EUROPE (AEA)
ASIA/PACIFIC (AAPA)
Jul-10

Jan-10

Jul-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

Jan-06

Jul-05

Jan-05

Jul-04

Jan-04

Jul-03

The low cost carriers (LCC) such as Southwest Airlines and JetBlue Airways in the
USA, Ryanair and easyJet in Europe, are expanding passenger shares by offering
low fare and new routes.
Latin America.

The trend of emerging LCC also expanded in Asia and in

To compete with LCC, new LCC as subsidiaries of existing airlines

are founded; this resulted in net fare decrease. In addition to the low fare
competition, the jump of fuel price since 2004 has damaged world airlines including
LCC. The high fuel price forced many airlines get into red and accelerate a
reorganization of airlines.
CRUDE OIL AND FUEL PRICE
CRUDE OIL PRICE/BARREL
140
130

CRUDE OIL

120

FUEL

FUEL PRICE/GALLON
420
SOURCE: ATA

390
360

Jan-10

Jan-09

Jan-08

Jan-07

Jan-06

Jan-05

Jan-04

Jan-03

Jan-02

0
Jan-01

30

0
Jan-00

60

10
Jan-99

90

20

Jan-98

120

30

Jan-97

150

40

Jan-96

180

50

Jan-95

210

60

Jan-94

240

70

Jan-93

270

80

Jan-92

300

90

Jan-91

330

100

Jan-90

110

Jan-89

Jan-03

Jul-02

-60%

A net profit of world airlines continued 5-year loss since 2001 and went into the
black in 2006. But soaring fuel price and economic recession in 2008 hit world
airlines and resulted in the record financial deficit in 2008.

In 2010, airline profit

shows a sharp upswing due to better economic conditions and stable fuel price.
WORLD AIRLINES NET PROFIT

NET PROFIT
NOMINAL
20.0

14.7
8.6

10.0
4.5

8.2

8.5

5.3

3.7

0.0
-0.2
-4.1

-4.4

-5.6

-7.6

-7.9

-10.0

-13.0

-11.6

-20.0

-30.0

-36.0
-40.0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

The world economy, which is one of the major drivers for traffic growth, dropped to
minus 2% in 2009, after the economic downturn in 2008.

The growth rate is

expected to recover to around 3.0% in 2010. The world economy will grow at 3.3%
annually over the next 20 years.
z

The yield, which is another driver for traffic growth, declines at 3.1% per year during
the past 20 years and is expected to decline at 0.9% per year from now on.

World airlines experienced traffic growth at 4.3% per year in average for the past 20
years. During the next 20 years, average annual traffic growth rate will be 5.1%,
and

the

traffic

volume

in

2030

will

reach

13,234

billion

revenue

passenger-kilometers (RPK), which is 2.7 times of the year 2010.

WORLD RPK FORECAST

RPK (BILLIONS)

Year 2030
13234
TOTAL WORLD

14000
ACTUAL

13000
12000

FORECAST

OTHERS
2767

AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)

1990-2010
2011-2030
2.7
4.0
4.7
4.4
7.2
6.2
3.6
6.0
4.3
5.1

11000

NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE
ASIA/PACIFIC
REST OF WORLD
TOTAL WORLD

10000
9000
8000
7000

ASIA/PACIFIC
4287
Year 2010
4866

6000
5000

EUROPE

865

3094

4000
3000
2000

1291

Year 1990
2085

1310

1000
0
1990

N.AMERICA
3086

1400
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

North America region, which now has the largest market share of 28% in 2010, will
grow at 4.0% per year, which is less than the world average growth rate.
Accordingly its market share will decrease to 23% in 2030. Europe region which
now shares 27% in the world market will grow at 4.4% per year. The share will
decrease slightly to 23% in 2030. By the faster economic growth of Asian countries,
Asia/Pacific region will realize 6.2% growth per year. The market share will increase
from current 27% to 32% in 2030.

Asia/Pacific market then becomes larger than

North America and Europe market, namely the largest in the world.
CIS 4%

L.AMERICA
AFRICA

7%

2030 Share

AFRICA 2%

2%

M.EAST
JAPAN

3% CIS

L.AMERICA 4%

2010 Share

5%

M.EAST

OTHERS
(18%)

OTHERS

12%

(21%)

3%

N.AMERICA
28%
(29%)

CHINA

N.AMERICA

23%

JAPAN

2%
11%

ASIA/PACIFI
(27%)

ASIA/PACIFIC

OCEANIA

EUROPE
(27%)

3%
ASIA

11%

EUROPE

(23%)

23%

25%
1%

E.EUROPE

(32%)

CHINA 17%

W.EUROPE

2%

W.EUROPE

OCEANIA

11%
ASIA

1%
E.EUROPE

The traffic capacity in terms of ASK (Available Seat Kilometer) will grow at an
average of 4.9% per year which is slightly less than the passenger traffic growth
because of load factor improvement from 77% to 80% for the next 20 years and
reach 16,518 billion seat kilometers which is 2.6 times more than the present
capacity.

In 2010, 17,700 jets and 3,760 turboprops are operating in the world. Among the
current fleet, 11,000 jets (62% of the current fleet), and 3,170 turboprops (84%) will
be retired in next 20 years.

In 2030, jet fleet in the world will account for 37,900 units which are 2.1 times more
than the present fleet. On the other hand, turboprop fleet will decrease to 2,600
units, which are 70% of current fleet, caused by the shift to a regional jet.

JET FLEET FORECAST

UNITS
40000

ACTUAL

37867

FORECAST

35000

747

OVER
400 SEATER

A380

310-399
SEATER

777
A340

30000

787
767
A350
A330
A321
737-900

26853

25000

230-309
SEATER
170-229
SEATER

17706

20000

A319/A320
DC10,MD11
L1011

737-700/800
747

13167

15000
DC8,707

A340 777
A310 767

120-169
SEATER

NEW DELIVERY

A300

10024

757
A321

10000

RETAINED
CS100/300

A320,MD80/MD90

100-119
SEATER

A318,737-600

727-200,737-300/400

5000

ARJ21,RRJ95
CRJ700/900

60-99
SEATER

328JET,ERJ135/145,CRJ200

20-59
SEATER

ERJ170/190
727-100,737-100/200/500,TRIDENT,DC9S
BAC111,F28/F70/F100,DC9

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST

UNIT
16000

NARROWBODY JET
14419
14000

12000

WIDEBODY JET

TOTAL
2010 YEAR-END 17,706
2030 YEAR-END 37,867
2011-2030 DELIVERIES:
31,168

NEW DELIVERY

10000

8519 10907

REGIONAL JET
8000

6000

5230
4422
3907

4000
1734

1734

1721
1254

3578
3789
934

1721

615

844

2010 2030

2010 2030

20-59
Seats

8519
3103

1869

2000

4269

60-99
Seats

RETAINED
1505 3755
3512

118
2010 2030

2010 2030

100-119
Seats

120-169
Seats

1595
1229 2578
469

1595

1505

934

4730

1229

525

514

500

2010 2030

2010 2030

2010 2030

230-309
Seats

310-399
Seats

170-229
Seats

648

469 577
71
2010 2030

Over 400
Seats

The demand for the commercial jets between 2011 and 2030 will be 31,200 units
including current backlog of 6,100 units. The largest market will be 10,900 jets for
120-169 seat jet, and the next largest segment will be 4,700 jets for 230-309 seat
jet. For the turboprop market, demand will be only 2,030 units.

TURBOPROP FLEET FORECAST

UNITS
7000

ACTUAL

5623
6000

FORECAST

5465

5000
748,F27/F50
SAAB2000
DHC8-300

4000

3760

3097
ATR72,DHC8-400

2622

JET STREAM41,CN235
SD330/360
SAAB340

3000

DHC8300

OVER
60 SEATS

RETAINED

2000
NEW DELIVERY

DHC8-200
SU80
JET STREAM31, DHC6
BE99/MOD1900,METRO,EMB110

1000

20-39 SEATS
L410,
DHC6-400

0
1990

1995

2000

40-59 SEATS

2005

2010

15-19 SEATS

2015

2020

2025

2030

TURBOPROP FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST

UNITS
1400

TOTAL FLEET
3,760
2010 YEAR-END:
2,622
2030 YEAR-END:
2011-2030DELIVERIES
2,031

1264
1200
985
1000

890
784

800

600

751
727
575

1264

523
985

406
400

631

784

727
532

200

345
367
61
2010
2030
15-19 Seats

120

43
2010
2030
20-39 Seats

2010
2030
40-59 Seats

2010
2030
60-79 Seats

The largest market in the world will be Asia/Pacific region which is expected to grow
faster than other regions, and it will get 9,800 deliveries or 31% of total new jet
deliveries. The second largest market will be North America which has the largest
number of fleet at present, and it will receive 8,100 new jets (26%). Europe region
will need 6,400 new jets (21%) for the next 20 years.

JET FLEET AND DEMAND BY REGION

UNITS
14000

TOTAL FLEET
11622

17,706
2010 YEAR-END:
37,867
2030 YEAR-END:
2011-2030 DELIVERIES:

12000

31,168

10094
10000
8574
7577

NEW DELIVERY

8000

9767

5825
8067

6000

4158

6929

4143
3580

4000

2000

RETAINED
2027

1855

1645

6405

1172

0
2010

2030

2010

N.AMERICA

2030

2010

2030

2010

ASIA/PACIFIC

EUROPE

2030

OTHERS

Sales amount of 31,200 jets in the next 20 years will be $3,413 billions in 2010 US
dollar value.

Top two sales segments will be $980 billions for 230 309 seat

category and $853 billions for 120 - 169 seat category.

The amount of turboprop

sales will be $31.5 billions.

JET SALES FORECAST BY SIZE
(2011-2030)

UNITS

2010 US$
BILLIONS

12000
NARROWBODY

WIDEBODY

10907
10000

TOTAL
31,168 UNITS
3,413 BILLIONS

980

1000

853
800

8000

695

600

6000
4730
4000

3755

3789

3578

400
331
2578

211
2000

193
200

124

1254

577

26
0

0
20-59

60-99

100-119

120-169

170-229

SIZE(SEATS)

230-309

310-399

400-

Engine deliveries will be 73,100 units for jet and 4,700 units for turboprop between
2011 and 2030.

Sale amounts of jet and turboprop engine will be $668 billions and

$9 billions in 2010 US dollar value respectively.

z

The largest engine market category in unit will be 44,600 (57%) for 12,000 - 35,000
lb class which is installed in A320 and B737 series.

In sales value, 12,000 -

35,000 lb class will be $267 billions.

ENGINE DELIVERY FORECAST

(2011-2030)

NUMBER OF ENGINE
70000

No.of ENG

VALUE
($B)
9
668
677

60000
TURBOPROP
JET
TOTAL

50000

4,671
73,103
77,774

SALES VALUE
(US $ BILLIONS)
350
300

267
250
44552

195

188

40000

200

30000

150

20000

100
NUMBER OF
ENGINE

10000

4671

8998
SALES
VALUE

11058

8495
50

18

9
0
THRUST
(X1000 LBS)

0
T/P
L410,
ATR42/ 72,
DHC- 8

<12

12-35

35-65

328JET
CRJ-200/700/900
EMB135/145/170/190
ARJ21/SSJ

A318/A319/A320
A321
B757/B767/B737
MRJ/CS100,300

A300/A310/A330
A340-500,600
B747/B757/B767
B787

65-115
A380
A350
B777

2.

Traffic Forecast

2. 1

Regions
Growth rates of traffic vary in regions because of different geography,

population and economic activity.

Then, the world is divided into 11 regions including

the CIS as follows.

EUROPE
(W.EUROPE, E.EUROPE)
CIS

N.AMERICA

ASIA/PACIFIC
(CHINA, JAPAN
OTHER ASIA, OCEANIA)

M.EAST

AFRICA
L.AMERICA

2. 2

Relationship among Passenger Traffic, Economy and Yield

The economic (GDP) growth and the decline of air fare (Yield) have sustained

the passenger traffic (RPK) growth.

The relationship among the RPK, the GDP and Yield in the past is analyzed by
each region to obtain regression equation. A regional RPK is forecasted by using their
relationship with the GDP and Yield forecast results.

In the calculation, a regional RPK

means the RPK of the airlines domiciled in the each geographical region, and the GDP
of each region and an average Yield of scheduled airlines in the region are used.
RPK vs. GDP, YIELD

CHANGE (%)
20.0

IRAQ WAR
SARS

15.0

FINANCIAL
CRISIS

GULF WAR
10.0

TERROR ATTACK
RPK

5.0

GDP
0.0

YIELD
-5.0

-10.0

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2. 3

Economic Forecast
A GDP forecast in the region basically depends on the long term GDP forecast

of each country prepared by Global Insight in 2010.

A financial crisis attacked US Market and hurt the world economy in 2008.
World GDP growth rate in 2009 dropped to minus 2.0%. It was the worst economy
downturn after the World War II.

However, a sign of recovery is observed recently and

the growth rate of 2010 is predicted as 3.0%.

WORLD REAL GDP

GDP GROWTH RATE

Source: Global Insight

6.0%
5.0%

9/11
Terror
Attack

ACTUAL

FORECAST
2011 Forecast

Financial
Crysis

2010 Forecast

4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

YEAR

For the long-term, economic growth rate in developed countries should go

down or maintains current level while the growth rate in developing countries will be
larger than the past.

As a result, world real GDP will grow at 3.3% annually over the

next 20 years, the same growth rate as in the past.

North America and Western Europe will keep moderate growth rate of 2.7%
and 1.9% per year respectively.

Japan recovered to 2.0% growth in 2004 after a

decade long recession since early 1990s, and it will grow at the lowest rate of 0.8% per
year in the future.

China will maintain high growth rate of 7.1% per year, although it is

lower than the miraculous growth rate in the past.

Other Asian countries (excluding

China and Japan) also sustain high growth rate of 5.3% per year.

Oceania will show a

slight lower rate of 2.8% per year than the past.

Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa will show higher
growth rates of 4.2%, 3.5%, 4.1% and 4.4% respectively than the world average.
GDP
GROWTH
per YEAR

REAL GDP FORECAST

12%
1991-2010

10.4%

2011-2030

10%

8%
7.1%
6%

5.3%5.3%
4.4% 4.4% 4.1%

4.2%
4%

3.3%
2.7%

3.5%3.5%

3.2%
2.5% 2.7%
1.9%

2%

3.2%

3.4%
2.8%

1.9% 2.1%
1.0%
0.8%

0.4%

10

C
IS

A
SI
A

A
IN
C
H

PA
N
JA

IA
O
C
EA
N

EA
ST

M
ID
D
LE

A
FR
IC
A

PE
EU
R
O

EA
ST

ES
T

EU
R

O
PE

M
ER
IC
A
A

IC
LA
TI
N

A
M
ER

N
O
R
TH

W
O
R

LD

0%

2. 4

Trend of Yield
Although the main factor of the decrease in fare for the past 20 years was cost

reduction by using the fuel efficient novel airplanes with advanced technology and
airlines restructuring efforts, emergence of low-cost carrier and low-fare e-ticketing also
spurred the air fare to the lower level.
As the circumstance of aviation business is getting harder, airline efforts of
restructure will be more difficult to achieve and the change toward the low fare will not
be so much as in the past.
Thus, world average yield which was declined at 3.1% per year since 1991 will
continue to decline, but its rate, 0.9% per year for the next 20 years, is significantly
lower than the past trend.

The impact of the new large airplane on the air-fare is not as

big as the emergence of 747.

As the yield for North American airlines is already lower than the world average,
it will decline at 0.9% per year for the next 20 years. For Western European airlines,
their yield is higher compared to other regions; it will decline at 1.0% per year in the
future.
REAL YIELD FORECAST
2009 CENT/RPK
25.0

ACTUAL

FORECAST

20.0
W.EUROPE

ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

1991-2010 2011-2030
N.AMERICA
-2.5%
-0.9%
W.EUROPE
-3.0%
-1.0%
WORLD
-3.1%
-0.9%

WORLD
15.0

N.AMERICA
10.0

5.0

0.0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

CALENDAR YEAR

2. 5

Passenger Traffic (RPK)

Passenger traffic (RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometer) forecast is obtained by

11 regions from relationships among the RPK, the GDP and Yield in each region.
Since 1990, average growth of the world air passenger traffic (RPK) was 4.3%
per year last 20 years.

World RPK will grow at 5.1% per year by 2030 and reach 2.7

11

times as much as 2010 traffic to be 13,234 billion RPKs in 2030.

WORLD RPK FORECAST

RPK (BILLIONS)

Year 2030
13234
TOTAL WORLD

14000
ACTUAL

13000
12000

FORECAST

OTHERS
2767

AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)

1990-2010
2011-2030
NORTH AMERICA
2.7
4.0
EUROPE
4.7
4.4
ASIA/PACIFIC
7.2
6.2
REST OF WORLD
3.6
6.0
TOTAL WORLD
4.3
5.1

11000
10000
9000
8000

ASIA/PACIFIC
4287

7000

Year 2010
4866

6000
5000

EUROPE

865

3094

4000
3000

1291

Year 1990
2085

1310

2000
1000

N.AMERICA
3086

1400

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

The traffic growth rate of North America, which is the largest market in the
world, will be 4.0% per year in next 20 years, and the traffic of North America reaches
2.2 times larger than the current RPK, while its share in the world air traffic will decrease
from 29% in 2010 to 23% in 2030.
The traffic growth of Europe will be 4.4% per year for next 20 years to achieve
2.4 times as large as current level, while its share will decrease from 27% in 2010 to
23% in 2030.

CIS 4%

L.AMERICA

2010 Share

5%
AFRICA

3% CIS

L.AMERICA 4%

2%

2030 Share

AFRICA 2%

M.EAST

7%
JAPAN

OTHERS
(18%)

3%

OTHERS

12%

(21%)

N.AMERICA
28%
(29%)

CHINA

11%

M.EAST

2%

ASIA/PACIFI
(27%)

ASIA/PACIFIC

OCEANIA

EUROPE
(27%)

3%
ASIA

11%

N.AMERICA

23%

JAPAN

(32%)

CHINA 17%

EUROPE

(23%)

25%
1%

E.EUROPE

23%

W.EUROPE

2%

W.EUROPE

OCEANIA

11%
ASIA

12

1%
E.EUROPE

RPK GROWTH
/ YEAR (%)

WORLD TRAFFIC GROWTH FORECAST

20.0
1990-2010

2011-2030

16.8

15.0

10.3

10.0
7.7

7.6
6.4

5.1

5.0

5.6

4.7

4.3

4.0

4.4

4.8

4.6

4.4

2.7

4.9

4.4 4.4

4.5

4.4

3.1

2.7
1.4

0.0
WORLD

NORTH
LATIN
WEST
AMERICA AMERICA EUROPE

EAST
EUROPE

AFRICA

MIDDLE
EAST

OCEANIA

JAPAN

CHINA

ASIA

CIS

-1.4

-5.0

Asia/Pacific region, where China and NIES/ASEAN countries are the main
performers, has maintained the highest traffic growth of 7.2% per year in the past 20
years. For the next 20 years, their traffic will grow at 6.2% per year to achieve 3.3 times
as big as today, and its share will increase from 27% in 2010 to 32% in 2030.
Asia/Pacific region will be the largest market in the world, beating North America and
Europe markets, while Japan will not grow as fast as past.

The traffic growth rate of

Japan will be 2.7% per year.

In Africa, traffic will not grow so much in spite of economical growth because air
travel market is not matured yet, but the traffic growth will be 4.4% per year for the next
20 years which is larger than the past.

In the Middle East, traffic growth will be 7.7%

though continuous political unrest. Latin America will maintain their traffic level of 4.4%,
because of stabilization of the political situation and the economy.

Eastern Europe

traffic will grow so much as 4.6% due to the EU enlargement and the shift to
westernization. CIS traffic is expected to grow 4.4% due to the political stabilization.

13

3.

Available Seat kilometer (ASK)

The required ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) is calculated by dividing RPK by

passenger load factor. Therefore, the forecast of passenger load factor, which is
considered to increase in the future, is necessary to obtain ASK.
3. 1

Load Factor
Average load factor of world airlines increased from 67% in 1988 to 77% in

2010, especially North American and western European airlines show 82% and 78% in
2010 respectively, which is much higher than the world average. These high average
load factors are due to current capacity reduction to meet the high break-even load
factor compelled by low fare competition, and high fuel price.
Airlines will strive to improve their load factor by using revenue management
system, internet booking system, and offering the same level high quality service
through an alliance. However, considering the hourly and seasonal fluctuation of
passenger demand, higher average load factor over 80% results in passenger spill in
crowded conditions, and lower load factor means poor revenues.
Therefore, average load factor of world airlines is estimated to go up to 80%
until 2030.
PASSENGER LOAD FACTOR FORECAST

%
90

ACTUAL

FORECAST

85

80

75

70

N.AMERICA
W.EUROPE

65

JAPAN
AISA

60

WORLD

55

50
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

14

2015

2020

2025

2030

3. 2

ASK Forecast by Region

World ASK has grown at the rate of 3.6% per year from 1990, which is lower by

0.7% than 4.3% of RPK growth for the same period.

During 2010 to 2030, RPK will

grow at 5.1% per year, then ASK will grow at 4.9% per year because load factor will not
be improved so much.
Growth rate for North American and European airlines will be 4.0% and 4.2%
per year respectively, less than the world average, and will reduce their shares in the
future.

Asia/Pacific airlines will continue higher growth rate of 6.0%, and the region will

be the largest market in the world.

WORLD ASK FORECAST

ASK (BILLIONS)

YEAR 2030

18000

TOTAL WORLD
ACTUAL

16,518

FORECAST

16000

OTHERS

3546

AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)

2010-2030
4.0
NORTH AMERICA
4.2
EUROPE
6.0
ASIA/PACIFIC
5.5
REST OF WORLD
4.9
TOTAL WORLD

14000

12000

10000

ASIA/PACIFIC

5360
YEAR 2010

8000

6,292
6000

EUROPE

1225

3861

YEAR 1990
4000

3,131

1671
1680

N.AMERICA

2000

3752
1716

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

CALENDAR YEAER

15

2020

2025

2030

3. 3

ASK Forecast by Region and Range

3. 3. 1

Range Categories
Traffic growth varies by region and route distance.

According to the present(*)

timetable of world airlines, turboprops mainly operate under 1,000km routes, regional
jets operate under 2,000km, narrow-body jets excluding regional jets operate under
4,500km, and wide-body jets mainly operate over 4,500km. Thus, the market is divided
into the following 4 categories by route distance.
(*): September 2010
Long-range

over 4,500km

Middle-range

2,001 to 4,500km

Short-range

1,001 to 2,000km

Regional

under 1,000km

RANGE CATEGORY AND ASK DISTRIBUTION

ASK (Billions)
Sodurce: OAG Max, September 2010

700000

600000
500000

Turboprop
Regional Jet
Narrowbody Jet
Widebody Jet

400000
300000
200000
100000
0
0
00
REGIONAL
10
SHORT

00
20

00
30

MEDIUM

00
40

00
50

00
60

00
70

00
80

00
90

LONG-RANGE
RANGE (Km)

16

00
10

0
00
11

0
00
12

0
00
13

Widebody Jet
Narrowbody Jet
Regional Jet
Turboprop

0
00
14

0
50
15

3. 3. 2

ASK Distribution by Region, Range and Airplane Size Categories

ASK distribution by region and by range category is further divided by size of

airplane.

In the forecast analysis, 15 size categories are assumed by the number of

seats from 1 to 800 by almost 20% increment of number of seats.

Current ASK distribution of the whole world is shown in the figure below.
In regional and short range category of total world,

40-59 seat jet (CRJ200,

ERJ145 etc.) and 120-169 seat jet (A320, B737 etc.) are the two major airplane sizes. In
medium range category, 120-169 seat, 170-229 seat (A321, B757) of narrow-body and
230-309 seat (A300/310, B767) of wide-body are mainly operated.

In long range

category, the majority of operated airplanes are 310-399 seat of wide-body (A340, B777,
MD-11) and 400-499 seat (B747, A380).
Future ASK distribution is obtained based on the current ASK distribution by
region, range and size categories by considering the airplane size trend and ASK
growth estimation.

ROUTE ASK DISTRIBUTION - TOTAL WORLD

ASK (MILLIONS)
1,200,000

1,000,000

800,000

600,000
400,000
200,000
001020019
040039
060059
080079
100099
120119
170169
230229
AIRCRAFT SIZE SEATS
310309
399

17

45012001-4500
1001-2000
1-1000
400499

500800

RANGE (KM)

3. 3. 3

ASK Share Forecast by Range

Based on the past ASK growth data, there are difference among the growth

rates of ASK by Range. Then the share of ASK by Range is estimated first using the
share trend of ASK by Range in past 20 years.
According to the past 20 year trend, long-range market has maintained the
largest market share. One of the reasons why the long-range market expanded was the
improvement of airplane range capability and the popularization of overseas travel.
In the future, the long-range market will maintain the same market share as the
current level, and the short-range market will be active again, and then ASK share in
each market will balance at certain constant level.

ASK SHARE (%)

ASK SHARE FORECAST BY RANGE

100
90
36.4
80

Over 4500km

36.3

2001-4500km

23.6

1001-2000km

23.5

Under 1000km

16.6

2000

2010

36.3

70
60

22.6

50

21.6

40
19.6
30

26.7

20
10

21.4

0
1990

1995

2005

18

15.5

2015

2020

2025

2030

3. 3. 4

ASK Forecast by Region and Range

Dividing the regional ASK into range categories by using ASK by Range

share forecast, ASK forecast by region and range can be obtained.

About 70% of ASK in North America is for routes under 4,500km range,
because domestic market is widely developed in the region.
The ASK share of the long-range market is 36% in Europe and 34% in
Asia/Pacific. In others market, half of ASK will be occupied by the long-range market.

ASK FORECAST BY REGION AND RANGE

YEAR 2010
YEAR 2030

ASKBILLIONS
6000

6,292 ASK(B)
16,518 ASK(B)
5360

5000
1821
3861

4000

3752
1179

3000

2000

1716

1208

503
1000

538

914

1003
1712

Over 4500Km

918

2000-4500Km

368
235
157

570

1000-2000Km

345

Under 1000Km

2010

2030

652
1680

1670

703

591

1225

314

465

1205

280

257

451

298

2010

2030

2010

N.AMERICA

3546

1400

399

419

AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)

2010-2030
4.0
NORTH AMERICA
4.2
EUROPE
6.0
ASIA/PACIFIC
5.5
REST OF WORLD
4.9
TOTAL WORLD
AVE. ANNUAL GROWTH RATE (%)
2010-2030
4.3
Under 1000Km
5.3
1000-2000Km
4.7
2000-4500Km
5.1
Over 4500Km
4.9
TOTAL WORLD

440
603
2030

EUROPE

1511

1024

327
2010

2030

ASIA/PACIFIC

19

OTHERS

4.

Fleet and Delivery Forecast

Based on the fleet at 2010 year-end, the future fleet ASK are calculated by

region, range and size categories. And number of aircraft in the future are calculated
from dividing future ASK by yearly ASK per aircraft.
Yearly ASK per aircraft

= Seats x Aircraft km per year

Aircraft km per year

= Block Speed (km/hour) x Utilization (hours/year)

Future Fleet ASK is supplied by the retained aircrafts and newly delivered
aircrafts.

Future Fleet ASK for newly delivered aircrafts is assigned to adequate

aircraft which consists of current aircraft in production and planned aircraft to be

developed by each aircraft market share calculated by aircraft characteristics such as
price, operating cost and range, and manufactures sales power.
4. 1

Improvement of Aircraft Utilization

Aircraft utilization in terms of yearly aircraft flight distance has gradually

increased with some fluctuation. This fluctuation was resulted from imbalance between
supply and demand of aircraft to meet with traffic volume.

The trend of improvement

will continue at 0.62% per year for the next 20 years.

For turboprop aircraft, an

improvement of the utilization is assumed as 0.31% per year.

JET AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION
SOURCE : ICAO SCHEDULED DATA
ASCEND DATA

2.6
ACTUAL

FORECAST

2.324

2.4
2.052

2.2

2.0
AIRCRAFT KM
PER AIRCRAFT
PER YEAR 1.8
(MIL. KM)
1990-2010
AVE. GROWTH RATE

1.6

2010-2030
AVE.GROWTH RATE
0.62%

0.76%
1.4

1.2

1.0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010
CALENDAR YEAR

20

2015

2020

2025

2030

4. 2

Trend of Airplane Size

According to passenger growth, an airline increases the frequency and/or

airplane size to expand the capacity (ASK). Past trends of airplane size vs. ASK growth
in each region and range are analyzed, and applied to the forecast.
As a total world, average seats(*) for the long range routes(over 4,501 km)
were almost constant between 1990 and 1995 and then decreased after 1996, and will
not change so much in the future.

Average seats (*) for short and medium range

routes and regional jet routes have a trend toward decline since 1990 and will not
change either in the future.

Average seats (*) for turboprop decreased until 1992, and

then increased in spite of ASK decrease, and expected to continue increasing in the
future.
Average seats (*) = annual ASK / Aircraft km per year
Index
2010=1.0

GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FOR

TURBOPROP ROUTES - WORLD

Index
2010=1.0

3.0
ASK
AVE.SEAT
2.5

ACTUAL

FORECAST

GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FOR

UNDER 1000KM JET ROUTES - WORLD

3.0
ACTUAL

FREQUENCY
2.5

FORECAST

ASK
AVE.SEAT

2.0

FREQUENCY
2.0

1.5
1.5

1.0
1.0

0.5
0.5

0.0
1990

Index
2010=1.0

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0.0
1990

GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FOR

1001-2000KM JET ROUTES - WORLD

Index
2010=1.0

3.0

2020

2025

2030

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.5

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

0.0
1990

2030

GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FOR

OVER 4501KM JET ROUTES - WORLD

3.0
ACTUAL

FORECAST

ASK
AVE.SEAT
FREQUENCY

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

1995

FORECAST

ASK
FREQUENCY

2.0

0.0
1990

2015

AVE.SEAT

FREQUENCY

2.5

2010

ACTUAL
2.5

AVE.SEAT

Index
2010=1.0

2005

GROWTH OF ASK, AVERAGE SEAT, FREQUENCY FOR

2001-4500KM JET ROUTES - WORLD

FORECAST

ASK

2.0

0.0
1990

2000

3.0
ACTUAL

2.5

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

21

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

In North American airlines, average seats per ASK for the long-range market
that is mainly transatlantic, declined during 1982 to 1992 due to emergence of long
range medium size airplanes such as B767 and A310, and then slightly increased in
1995 due to EIS of large twin airplanes such as B777.

Average seats per ASK for

medium-range and short-range which are almost US domestic routes, were declined
slightly for past 20 years. For regional market, it also declined for recent years due to
expansion of new regional jets, while average seat for turboprop market showed a little
increase.
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - NORTH AMERICA
AVERAGE SEAT
400
Over 4500km Jet
2001-4500km Jet

350

1001-2000km Jet
Under 1000km Jet
300

Turboprop

250

200

150

100

50

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

In Western European airlines, average seats per ASK for long-range market
increased during 1982 to 1985 and then decreased but is almost stable lately.

Airplane

size for medium-range market including the Middle East and Africa routes and for
short-range market of intra-European continent has a trend toward downsizing.
the trend becomes stable lately just as for long-range market.

But

Airplane size for

regional jet market is almost stable in recent 5 years, while airplane size for turboprop
market is increasing slightly but steadily.

22

TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - WEST EUROPE

AVERAGE SEAT
400
Over 4500km Jet
2001-4500km Jet
350

1001-2000km Jet
Under 1000km Jet
Turboprop

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

In Asian airlines, airplane size is larger than other regions because their routes
concentrate in the major cities of each country.

Airplane size for long-range market,

which includes Pacific and European routes, was increased in 1980s and then showed
a declining trend lately.

But introduction of a new large airplane such as A380 will

reverse the trend to increase.

Airplane size of medium/short-range market shows a

trend of decline for past 20 years.

In regional market, airplane sizes of jet and

turboprop are almost stable, but in the future the size of jet will slightly decrease while
the size of turboprop will increase slightly, because there is some size gap between
them.
TREND OF AVERAGE SEAT - ASIA
AVERAGE SEAT
450
Over 4500km Jet
2001-4500km Jet

400

1001-2000km Jet
Under 1000km Jet

350

Turboprop

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

23

2015

2020

2025

2030

4. 3

Retirement of Existing Fleet

The average life of passenger jets scattered over 20 to 29 years for the past

years, which includes retired passenger jets due to freighter conversion.

However,

90% of existing jets were manufactured after 1960, and their average life is about 27
years.

Hush-kitted airplane has been extended its life 5 to 10 years more according to

the data.

However, hush-kitted airplanes will retire in the next 20 years because of

incompatibility with the latest noise regulation; therefore their extended life will affect
only to yearly demand but have little effect on total demand.
Model curve for a passenger jet retirement is based on a standard deviation
curve derived from the retirement data during 1960 to 2009 period.

Conversion from

passenger jets to freighters were conducted between 10 to 25 years of age and

converted freighters average age would be 34 years, that means they would be used
until the age of 40 years, if they do not encounter any accident.
Assuming average life of 27 years, 11,000 units (62%) of existing 17,700 jets
over 20-seater will retire by 2030.

About 85% of the existing 100 - 119 seat jets

including old B737-200 and DC-9-30 will disappear within the period.

It is the 120-169

seat category that the number of aircraft retired is the largest among all seat categories.
5,000 units of existing 8,000 including such as old B727-200 and MD-80 will retire in
next 20 years.
20 - 59 seat regional jets will retire gradually.
JET AIRPLANE RETIREMENT

18000
16000
14000

AVERAGE RETIREMENT: 27 YEARS.

NARROW WIDE
BODY
BODY

UNITS
20000

Over 400 SEATER

310-399 SEATER
230-309 SEATER

400
310-399
230-309
170-229
120-169
100-119
60-99
20-59
TOTAL

2010
2030
Year-end Year-end
469
71
1229
525
1595
500
1505
514
8519
3512
934
118
1721
844
1734
615
17706
6699

2011-2030
Retirement
398
704
1095
991
5007
816
877
1119
11007

170-229 SEATER
12000
10000

120-169 SEATER
8000
6000
4000

100-119 SEATER
60-99 SEATER

2000

20-59 SEATER
0
2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

YEAR END

24

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

4. 4

Jet Airplane Backlog

At the end of 2010, jet airplane backlog for over 20-seater stands at 6,140 units.

This is decreased by 2% from 6,280 at the end of 2009.

68% (4,170 units) of backlog

are narrow-bodies which include 590 regional jets.

In this forecast, these backlogs will be delivered to the regions where airlines
placed firm orders, but if these deliveries caused overcapacity, some of them should be
rearranged.
JET AIRPLANE BACKLOG AND ESTIMATED DELIVERY
2010 Year-end
SourceASCEND Database

UNITS
1400

1200

500-800 seats

1155

400-499 seats
310-399 seats

1018

1000

230-309 seats

928

170-229 seats
803

120-169 seats

740

800

080-099 seats
060-079 seats

600

040-059 seats

535

400

309

329
179

200
95

32

14

2020

2021

0
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016
2017
2018
DELIVERY YEAR

25

2019

2022

TBD

4. 5

Current and Future Airplane Model

4. 5. 1

Jet Airplane

The current and future airplane models are assumed as follows considering current new
planned aircrafts under development.
A/C Size Airplane Model

WIDE-BODY JET

NARROW-BODY JET

20-39
SEATS
40-59
SEATS
60-79
SEATS

ERJ-135

ERJ-145
CRJ-200
CRJ-700
EMB-170
EMB-175
MRJ-70
AN-148
80-99
ARJ21-700
SEATS
ARJ21-900
CRJ-900
CRJ-1000
EMB-190
EMB-195
MRJ-90
SSJ100-95
100-119 A318
SEATS
A318X
B737-600
B737X-6
CS100
CS300
EMB-195X
TU334
120-169 A319
SEATS
A320
A319RE
A320RE
A319X
A320X
B737-700
B737-800
B737X-7
B737X-8
C919
MS21-200
TU234
170-229 A321
SEATS
A321RE
A321X
B737-900
B737X-9
C919ST
230-309 A330-200
SEATS
A330-300
A350-800
A350-900
B767-300/300ER
B767-400ER
B787-8
B787-9
B787-10
IL96
310-399 A350-1000
SEATS
A340-300
A340-500
A340-600
B777-200/ER/LR
B777-300/ER
B777-200RE
B777-300RE
B777-200X
B777-300X
400-499 B747-400/ER
SEATS
B747-8
Over 500 A380-800
SEATS
A380-900

Seats
Manufacturer
(c)
37 (1) EMBRAER

Range
Capability
RG

Sales
Term
1999-

50
50
70
70
78
72
75
85
105
86
100
96
108
92
95
115
115
110
110
99
119
116
100
124
150
124
150
124
150
126
162
126
162
156
135
160
185
185
185
177
177
186
256
295
270
314
218
245
223
259
300
197
350
295
313
380
301
365
301
365
301
365
416
430
555
656

RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
SR
SR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR
SR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
MR/LR
MR/LR
MR/LR
MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
MR/LR
MR/LR
MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR

199719922001200320042015200620112012200220102005200620142010-2026
2026-2023
20232013201420152005-2017
-2016
2017-'25
2016-'24
20252024-2021
-2020
20212020201620162005-2018
2018-'26
2026-2022
20222018-1993
-1993
20152016-2011
-2013
20102013201519932017-2008
-2016
-2017
-2016
-2018

MR/LR
MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR
SR/MR/LR

20252027-2009
201120072018-

(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(1)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(2)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)
(3)

EMBRAER
BOMBARDIER
BOMBARDIER
EMBRAER
EMBRAER
JAPAN
ANTONOV
CHINA
CHINA
BOMBARDIER
BOMBARDIER
EMBRAER
EMBRAER
JAPAN
SUKHOI
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
BOEING
BOEING
BOMBARDIER
BOMBARDIER
EMBRAER
TUPOLEV
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
COMAC
IRKUT
TUPOLEV
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
BOEING
BOEING
COMAC
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
ILYUSIN
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
AIRBUS
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
BOEING
AIRBUS
AIRBUS

26

Comments

4. 5. 2

Turboprop Airplane

The turboprops now in production are assumed as future airplanes as follows, because
no new turboprops are to be developed.

A/C Size Airplane Model

15-19
SEATS
20-39
SEATS
40-59
SEATS

60-79
SEATS

L410
SK-105
DHC6-400
DHC8-200
SU-80
ATR-42
DHC8-300
MA60
AN-140
ATR-72
DHC8-400
IL-114

Seats
(c)
19 (1)
19 (1)
19 (1)
30 (1)
26 (1)
42 (1)
50 (1)
56 (1)
46 (1)
70 (1)
70 (1)
64 (1)

Manufacturer
LET/MORAVAN
GECI INT'L
VIKING AIR
BOMBARDIER
SUKHOI
ATR
BOMBARDIER
CHINA
ANTONOV
ATR
BOMBARDIER
ILYUSIN

27

Range
Capability
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG
RG

Sales
Term
20112010198420041984198420012003198419991994-

Comments

4. 6

Jet share in small airplane market

In small airplane market where regional jets and turboprops are both in service,

turboprops are normally used on the short-haul routes where no competitions with other
airlines exists because of better economic efficiency of turboprop, while regional jets are
operated on the routes with competitions with other airlines and are longer than
1,000km where passengers prefer jet aircrafts.
In USA and Europe, regional jet operation is rapidly increasing in recent years
by the shift from turboprops and 100-seater jets.

Recently the size of regional jet

shifts to the 60 - 99 seat category from 20 - 59 seat category due to the relaxation of
scope clause.
In this section, recent order of small airplane is analyzed and the share of jet
and turboprop order in the category is obtained in order to forecast the regional jets
and turboprop fleet.
4. 6. 1

Recent 20-79 seat class jet share

Share of turboprop order was more than 70% until 1997 when huge ERJ145

order was placed.

After then, the regional jet share took more than 70% of total order.

SAAB and BAe withdrew from turboprop production. Fokker and Fairchild Dornier were
forced to bankrupt, and now only ATR, CASA and Bombardier are continuing to produce
ATR42/72, CN235 and DHC-8 respectively. Turboprops increased their share from 2005
by the jump of fuel price, and in the future they will take moderate share in the market if
the fuel price maintains recent high level.
JET SHARE IN 20-79 SEATS
100
90
80
70
60
SHARE
50
%

ATR42/72
CN235, DHC8
DO328
EMB120, F50
SAAB340/2000

Turboprop

Jet

40

CRJ200/440/700
ERJ135/145/170
F70, RJ70
FD328JET

30
20
10

0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
CALENDAR YEAR

28

4. 6. 2

Jet share in Fleet forecast

According to the data in the previous section, jet airplanes were recently

selected about 60 to 70% of total small airplane orders.

In our forecast, a demand from the jet operated routes and 50% of the demand
from current turboprop market is filled by jet aircrafts.

29

4. 7

Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast

4. 7. 1

World Jet Fleet and Deliveries Forecast

While world traffic (RPK) grew 2.3 times to 4,866 billion passenger kilometers

during past 20 years, the world jet fleet increased 1.8 times to 17,700 units in 2010.
Future jet fleet is forecasted to increase to 37,900 units until 2030, which is 2.1
times as many as the existing fleet, due to increment of load factor and improvement of
aircraft utilization, while world traffic will grow 2.7 times to 13,234 billion passenger
kilometers for the same period.
JET FLEET FORECAST

UNITS
40000

ACTUAL

OVER
400 SEATER

37867

FORECAST

310-399
SEATER

A380

35000

747

777
A340

30000

230-309
SEATER

787
767
A350
A330
A321
737-900

26853

25000

170-229
SEATER

17706

20000

A319/A320
DC10,MD11
L1011

737-700/800

13167

15000

A340 777
A310 767

747

DC8,707

120-169
SEATER

NEW DELIVERY

A300

10024

757
A321

10000

RETAINED

100-119
SEATER

CS100/300

A320,MD80/MD90

A318,737-600

727-200,737-300/400

5000

ARJ21,RRJ95
CRJ700/900

60-99
SEATER

328JET,ERJ135/145,CRJ200

20-59
SEATER

ERJ170/190
727-100,737-100/200/500,TRIDENT,DC9S
BAC111,F28/F70/F100,DC9

0
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

JET FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST

UNIT
16000

NARROWBODY JET
14419
14000

12000

WIDEBODY JET

TOTAL
2010 YEAR-END 17,706
2030 YEAR-END 37,867
2011-2030 DELIVERIES:
31,168

NEW DELIVERY

10000

8519 10907

REGIONAL JET
8000

6000

5230
4422
3907

4000

8519
3103

1734

1869
1721

2000
1734
0

4269

1254

3578
3789
934

1721

615

844

2010 2030

2010 2030

20-59
Seats

60-99
Seats

RETAINED
1505 3755
3512

118
2010 2030

2010 2030

100-119
Seats

120-169
Seats

30

1595
1229 2578
469

1595

1505

934

4730

1229

525

514

500

2010 2030

2010 2030

2010 2030

230-309
Seats

310-399
Seats

170-229
Seats

648

469 577
71
2010 2030

Over 400
Seats

By seat categories, the 120 - 169 seat market of which existing fleet is 8,500
units, is projected 14,400 units and accounts for the largest fleet of the total market. This
market will be shared by A319/A320, B737 families and newly developed airplanes.
The regional jet market of under 99 seats has a demand of replacement for
turboprops and a demand for transferred routes from mainline by emergence of more
economical regional jets.

The 20 - 59 seat market, which is mainly 1,700 CRJs and

ERJs are operated now, will need 1,900 units until 2030.

The 60 - 99 seat market,

which has several airplanes under development now, will need 4,400 units until 2030
compared with 1,700 units now.
The 100 - 119 seat market, including shrink derivatives such as A318 and
B737-600, is considered as a minimum size market for mainlines. The fleet of this
market is projected to grow to 3,900 jets in 2030 from 900 jets in 2010. The 170 - 229
seat market, which is the largest size category as a narrow-body jet, has a potential
demand for replacement of the current biggest market of 120 - 169 seat market.

The

fleet is expected to 4,300 units in 2030 from 1,500 units in 2010.

In the wide-body market, the current fleet of 230 - 309 seat market such as
B767 class is 1,600 units and the fleet of 310 - 399 seat market such as B777 and A340
is 1,200 units in 2010.

These airplane markets are expected to grow as a major

airplane for major domestic routes and international routes, and fleet of 230-309 seat
market will grow to 5,200 units in 2030, and the 310 - 399 seat market is projected to
grow to 3,100 units for replacement of existing B747 and new market for long-range
routes.
The large airplanes over 400 seats including B747-8 and A380 are mainly
operated for Pacific routes and Asia - Europe routes. The fleet for this market will be
projected to grow slightly to 600 units in 2010 from 500 units in 2010.
Aircraft Size
(Seats)

2010 year-end 2030 year-end

Fleet
Fleet

Aircraft

2011-2030
Deliveries

CRJ-200/440
ERJ-135/140/145
ARJ21, CRJ700/900/1000,
SSJ,
ERJ-170/175/190/195,
MRJ
A318B737-600
C110/130

1,734

1,869

1,254

1,721

4,422

3,578

934

3,907

3,789

120-169

A319/A320
B737-700/800

8,519

14,419

10,907

170-229

A321, B737-900

1,505

4,269

3,755

230-309

A300-600, A330, A350

B767-300/400 , B787

1,595

5,230

4,730

310-399

A340-300/500/600
B777-200/300

1,229

3,103

2,578

400-499

B747-400, B747-8

430

305

261

Over 500

A380-800/900

20-59
60-99
100-119

TOTAL

31

39

343

316

17,706

37,867

31,168

4. 7. 2

Jet Fleet and Delivery Forecast by Region

North American airlines are now operating 34% (5,800 units) of worldwide fleet

and will have 10,100 airplanes in 2030. The airlines will need 8,100 new airplanes
delivery (26% of total deliveries) between 2011 and 2030, which are mainly
narrow-bodies for hub and spoke system in this region.
European airlines will increase their fleet from 4,200 units in 2010 to 8,600 units
in 2030 and will need 6,900 units which represent 22% of total deliveries for this period.
Though Asia/Pacific airlines are operating only 23% (4,100 airplanes) of the
world fleet at present and will operate 11,600 airplanes in 2030 caused by higher traffic
growth rate than the others. Total deliveries in this region for the next 20 years will be
9,800 units (31% of total delivery) more than the delivery for North American or
European airlines. Nearly one third of total deliveries of the region will be wide-body
airplanes. 52% (300units) of total world deliveries for over 400 seat market (580 units)
will be required by this region, because the airlines will especially need large airplanes
for long-range market.
2010 YEAR-END

2030 YEAR-END

TOTAL17,706 UNITS

TOTAL37,867 UNITS

OTHERS
20%

OTHERS
N.AMERICA

N.AMERICA

20%

27%

34%

ASIA/PACIFIC
ASIA/PACIFIC
EUROPE

23%

30%

23%

23%

EUROPE

JET FLEET AND DEMAND BY REGION

UNITS
14000

TOTAL FLEET
11622
12000

17,706
2010 YEAR-END:
37,867
2030 YEAR-END:
2011-2030 DELIVERIES:
31,168

10094
10000
8574
7577

NEW DELIVERY

8000

9767

5825
8067

6000

4158

6929

4143
3580

4000

2000

RETAINED
2027

1855

1645

6405

1172

0
2010

2030

N.AMERICA

2010

2030

2010

2030

ASIA/PACIFIC

EUROPE

32

2010

2030

OTHERS

JET FLEET FORECAST BY REGION AND SIZE

UNIT

OVER 400 SEATS

12000

TOTAL FLEET

10094
10000

17,706
37,867

2010 YEAR-END:
2030 YEAR-END:

170-229 SEATS
120-169 SEATS

1162

8574

1002

103 533

5825
43
173
382
618

1761

20-50 SEATS

825
1146
556

4158
1318

327
259
382

4143
3652

255
705

1627

1206

1129

0
2030

N.AMERICA

2242

993

155
478
171

880
216

2010

2030

EUROPE

3580

4626

201
334

2010

81
282

447
557

171

2268

2010

1566

721

432

1053

875
862
191

92
156
88

2789
397

2030

ASIA/PACIFIC

382

269
2010

333
2030

OTHERS

JET DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGION AND SIZE

OVER 400 SEATS

12000

310-399 SEATS

2011-2030 DELIVERIES:

230-309 SEATS

31,168
10000

9767

170-229 SEATS

303

120-169 SEATS

1092

100-119 SEATS

8067
8000

6000

60-99 SEATS

154

1675

1036

144
2443

100-119 SEATS

7577

3352

4000

UNIT

230-309 SEATS

1298

1161

2000

310-399 SEATS

57 447

8000

6000

11622

334

388
1078
871

60-99 SEATS

51

1561
6929
401

20-50 SEATS

83

6405
1487

1069

140
697
1022

905
2561

492

4000
3512
2667

2167

1266
2000

1193

963

866

694

659

679
162

796
150

910
283

N.AMERICA

EUROPE

ASIA/PACIFIC

OTHERS

33

4. 7. 3

Yearly Delivery Forecast

Yearly jet delivery experienced big up and down from 400 to 1200 units per

year caused by traffic fluctuation, airline's financial condition and a long-term fluctuation
in airplane order number.
In the near future, number of annual delivery will be around 1,200 units due to
the record-breaking huge backlog ordered in 2005 through 2008.

After the downturn

until 2011, delivery will upward again to 1,800 more units gradually. Average annual
deliveries for the next 20 years will be forecasted as 1,560 airplanes. This forecast does
not consider manufacturers production capability. But according to the past delivery
trend, 1.5 times of current production capability will be required in 2030.

YEARLY JET DELIVERY FORECAST

UNITS
2000
ACTUAL

FORECAST

1800
1600

Over 400 Seats

310-399 Seats

1400

230-309 Seats

1200

170-229 Seats
120-169 Seats

1000

100-119 Seats
80-99 Seats

800

60-79 Seats

600

40-59 Seats
20-39 Seats

400
200
0
1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

34

2021

2026

4. 7. 4

Sales Forecast of Jet

The sales value of 31,200 jets is expected to reach $3,413 billion (2010 US$).
The largest market (36%) in unit will be 120 - 169 seat category, but in dollar

value, the share of 120 - 169 seat and 230 - 309 seat category will be 25% and 28%
respectively.
The portion of wide-body airplane will be one third of total number of deliveries,
but sales value of wide-body will be more than half of total sales.
DELIVERY SHARE

SALES SHARE

400- TOTAL 31,168 UNITS

2%
310-399
8%

20-59
4%

$3,413 BILLIONS

400- 60-99
100-119
6% 4%
6%

60-99
11%

230-309
15%

20-59
1%

310-399
20%

100-119
12%

120-169
25%

170-229
12%
230-309
28%

120-169
36%

170-229
10%

JET SALES FORECAST BY SIZE

(2011-2030)

UNITS

2010 US$
BILLIONS

12000
NARROWBODY

WIDEBODY

10907
10000

TOTAL
31,168 UNITS
3,413 BILLIONS

980

1000

853
800

8000

695

600

6000
4730
4000

3755

3789

3578

400
331
2578

211
2000

193
200

124

1254

577

26
0

0
20-59

60-99

100-119

120-169

170-229

SIZE(SEATS)

35

230-309

310-399

400-

4. 8

Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast

4. 8. 1

World Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast

The number of passenger turboprop airplanes more than 15-seats are 3,800

units in world airlines at the end of 2010, which is one fifth of jet airplanes.

The number

of turboprops in service is rapidly decreasing from around 5,500 in 1990s.

The current routes operated by turboprop are almost categorized to the
regional market which includes shorter than 1,000km routes. The traffic is projected to
grow 2.3 times of current traffic at growth rate of 4.3% (lower than 4.9% of total market)
per year for the next 20 years.

But many of over 20 seat turboprops will be replaced by

a regional jet, therefore the fleet of turboprops will shrink to 2,600 units until 2030.
However, according to our airline survey in Europe and USA, strong demand
for turboprops still exists on routes shorter than 500 km and terrain routes such as
isolated islands.
TURBOPROP FLEET FORECAST

UNITS
7000

ACTUAL

5623
6000

FORECAST

5465

5000
748,F27/F50
SAAB2000
DHC8-300

4000

3760

3097
ATR72,DHC8-400

2622

JET STREAM41,CN235
SD330/360
SAAB340

3000

DHC8300

OVER
60 SEATS

RETAINED

2000
NEW DELIVERY

DHC8-200
SU80
JET STREAM31, DHC6
BE99/MOD1900,METRO,EMB110

1000

20-39 SEATS
L410,
DHC6-400

0
1990

1995

2000

40-59 SEATS

2005

2010

15-19 SEATS

2015

2020

2025

2030

In the current fleet composition, the smallest 15-19 seat category, which is the
smallest market, is the largest (1,260 units) in number of airplanes and the largest seat
category, which is over 60 seat market, is the smallest (730 units) in number.

However,

seat size of turboprop tends to grow slightly and shifts to larger turboprops, because
less than 39 seat category has no new airplane in development and limited production
models.
The 15 - 19 seat market is the only viable market for the turboprop airplane

36

because there is no regional jet.

But current turboprop model in production is L410

and DHC6 only, therefore a certain portion of this market will be replaced by 20 - 39 seat
airplanes and inexpensive business jets.
The 20 - 39 seat market will be slightly reduced from current fleet.

The 40 - 59

seat market will be reduced to 80% of present level because of the shift to larger models
and regional jets, in spite of the shift from smaller category.
In the over 60 seat market, only 730 turboprops are operated now and
DHC8-400 and ATR42 are operated exclusively in this market.

The fleet of this market

is only for the routes without competition against regional jets, and it is projected to grow
to 890 units in 2030.
Assuming the average life of a turboprop is 27 years by the past trend, 84% or
3,170 units of the current fleet will be retired during the forecast period.

As a result, the

deliveries of the turboprops will be 2,030 units between 2011 and 2030.
TURBOPROP FLEET AND DELIVERY FORECAST
UNITS
1400

TOTAL FLEET
3,760
2010 YEAR-END:
2030 YEAR-END:
2,622
2011-2030DELIVERIES
2,031

1264
1200
985
1000

890
784

800

600

751
727
575

1264

985

406
400

523

631

784

727
532

345

200

367
61

0
2010

2030

15-19 Seats

4. 8. 2

120

43
2010

2030

20-39 Seats

2010

2030

40-59 Seats

2010

2030

60-79 Seats

Turboprop Fleet and Deliveries Forecast by Region

Number of turboprops in operation in 2010 is shared with 21% (800 units) in

North America, 19% (700 units) in Europe and 22% (810 units) in Asia/Pacific
respectively and 39% (1,450 units) in rest of world.
In 2030, a share of the turboprops by region will be 16% (420 units) in North
America, 17% (450 units) in Europe, and 32% (850 units) in Asia/Pacific.

37

Among the

2,030 units of the newly delivered airplane between 2011 and 2030, Asia/Pacific where
traffic grows faster than others will require 640 units (31%) , North America and Western
Europe will require 330 units (16%) and 290 units (14%) respectively and the rest of
world will require 780 units (39%).
TURBOPROPS FLEET AND DEMAND BY REGION

UNITS
1600

TOTAL FLEET
2010 YEAR-END
3,760
2030 YEAR-END
2,622
2011-2030 DELIVERIES
2,031

1400

1200

1452

1000

810

795
800

845

911

635

784

703

600

449
417

400

287

NEW DELIVERY

325

200

210
162

92

0
2010

2030

N.AMERICA

2010

127

RETAINED

2030

2010

EUROPE

2030

ASIA/PACIFIC

2010

2030

OTHERS

Demand for less than 39 seat airplane is dominant in North America and its
share is over 50%, while in Europe the share is about 50%. In Asia/Pacific, it is about
40% and the demand for more than 40 seat airplane is larger.
TURBOPROP DELIVERY FORECAST BY REGION
UNITS
900

2011-2030 DELIVERIES
2,031

800

784
635

700
225

OVER 60 SEATS

600
172

40-59 SEATS

500
400
300

276
325

287

228

57
58

200
106
100

69

20-39 SEATS
174

69

143

109
104
40

0
N.AMERICA

EUROPE

38

92

109

ASIA/PACIFIC

OTHERS

15-19 SEATS

The maximum yearly delivery of over 450 units was recorded in 1990. The
average yearly delivery was more than 250 units until 1996, and then decreased rapidly.
Number of delivery was less than 50 units per year from 2003 to 2005, because many
turboprops had been replaced by regional jets.

In recent years, yearly delivery

temporarily recovered somewhat due to the jump of fuel price, however it will maintain
only about 60 units per year in the future, for the demand of short-range route market.

YEARLY TURBOPROP DELIVERY FORECAST

UNITS
450
ACTUAL

FORECAST

400
350
300
Over 60 Seats

250

40-59 Seats
20-39 Seats
15-19 Seats

200
150
100
50
0
1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

39

2016

2021

2026

4. 8. 3

Sales Forecast of Turboprop

The sales value of 2,030 turboprop deliveries to the world airlines is expected

to reach $232 billion (2010 US$) between 2011 and 2030.

Compared with the jet

market, the turboprop deliveries are 7% in unit and only 1% in sales value.
The market categories of 20 - 39 seat, 40-59 seat and over 60 seat will be
comparable with each other in unit, and required 530 units (26% of total turboprop
deliveries), 630 units (31%) and 520 units (26%) respectively.
will be 340 units (17%).

The 15 - 19 seat market

The smaller seat market will shrink especially due to the shift

to larger turboprops and regional jets.

In sales value, the over 60 seat category which has the highest airplane price
will be $12.0 billions or 32% of total sales of turboprops. The next largest market will be
about $10.7 billions or 31% for the 40 - 59 seat market.

The 20 - 39 seat market will be

the third and $7.5 billions (24%) and the 15 19 seat market will be less than $1.3
billions (4%) of total.

TURBOPROPS SALES FORECAST

(2011-2030)

UNITS
1400

TOTAL
2,031 UNITS
$31.5 BILLIONS

1200

2010 US$
BILLIONS

12.0
10.7
6

1000
7.5
800
4

631
600

400

523

532

345
2

200

1.3

0
15-19

20-39

40-59
SIZE (SEATS)

40

Over 60

5.

Engine Market Forecast

The engine delivery is estimated from the installed engines for new airplane

delivery and spare engines which are assumed 15% of installed engines. The spare
engines for existing fleet are not included in this forecast.
5. 1

Engine Category and Their Applications

Engines by thrust category and their applications are shown in table below.

THRUST
CATEGORY ENGINE NAME
(x1000 lb)
65115

3565

1235

12

Turboprop

CF6-80E1
GE90
GP7000
PW4074/4084
PW4168
TRENT 700/XWB
TRENT 800
TRENT 900
TRENT XWB
GEnx
CF6-50
CF6-80A
CF6-80C2
JT9D
PW4000
RB211-524G/H
TRENT 500
TRENT 1000
PW2000
RB211-535C/E4
V2500
CFM56

PW1000G
JT8D-200
PW6000
BR700
SMI46
CF34

AE3007
PW300
CT7
PW100

TPE 331

MANUFACTURER

THRUST
(x1000 lb)

GE/SNECMA
GE/SNECMA
GE/PW
PW
PW
RR
RR
RR
RR
GE
GE/SNECMA
GE/SNECMA
GE/SNECMA
PW
PW

67.572
75115
76.581.5
7484
68
71
7595
6884
93
5370
46.554
4850
52.561.5
43.656
5268

APPLICATION (NO. OF ENGINE)

A330(2)
B777(2)
A380(4)
B777(2)
A330(2)
A330(2)
B777(2)
A380(4)
A350(2)
B787(2), B747-8(4)
B747(4), A300(2)
B767(2), A310(2)
B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2), MD-11(3)
B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2)
B747(4), B767(2), A300(2), A310(2)
MD-11(3)
RR
5860.6
B747-400(4), B767-300(2)
RR
56
A340-500/600(4)
RR
5370
B787(2), B747-8(4)
PW
38.241.7
B757(2)
RR
37.443.1
B757(2)
IAE
2230
A319(2), A320(2), A321(2), MD-90(2)
CFM INT'L
18.534
B737-300/400/500(2),
B737-600/700/800/900(2)
A318(2), A319(2),A320(2), A321(2),
A340-200/300(4)
PW
1532
MRJ-70/90(2), CS100/300(2), MC-21(2)
PW
18.521
MD-80(2)
PW
2023
A318(2)
BMW/RR
18.522
717(2)
17.4
SSJ100(2)
SNECMA/NPO
GE
8.620
CRJ-100/200(2), CRJ-700(2), CRJ-900(2),
ERJ-170(2), ERJ-190(2),
ARJ21(2), RRJ(2)
ALLISON
7.212
ERJ-135(2), ERJ-140(2), ERJ-145(2)
PWC
4.25.7
328JET(2)
GE
17001940 SHP CN235(2), SAAB340(2), L610(2)
PWC
20005000 SHP ATR42(2), ATR72(2),
DHC8-100(2)/300(2)/400(2), Do328(2)
EMB120(2)
GARRETT
715 SHP
CASA212(2), Metro(2), Do228(2)

41

5. 2

Engine Deliveries Forecast

Engine deliveries will be 73,100 units for jet and 4,700 units for turboprop

between 2011 and 2030.

Sales value will be $668 billions for jet and $9 billions for

turboprop in 2010 dollar value respectively.

The largest engine market category in unit will be 44,600 for 12,000 - 35,000 lb
class which is installed in A320 and B737 series, and it represents 57% of total engine
market. The second largest market category will be 11,100 units for 35,000 - 65,000 lb
class installed in A300/A310/A330/A340/A350 and B747/B757/B767/B787. Less than
12,000 lb class for regional jet will be 9,000 units, and the largest thrust class of 65,000 1115,000 lb installed in A380 and B777 will be 8,500 units.
In sales value, 12,000 - 35,000 lb class will be the largest of $267 billions (2010
US$). 65,000 - 115,000 lb class will be the second largest of $195 billions. 35,000 65,000 lb class will be $188 billions, and less than 12,000 lb class except turboprop will
be $18 billions.

ENGINE DELIVERY FORECAST

(2011-2030)

NUMBER OF ENGINE
70000

No.of ENG

VALUE
($B)
9
668
677

60000
TURBOPROP
JET
TOTAL

50000

4,671
73,103
77,774

SALES VALUE
(US $ BILLIONS)
350
300

267
250
44552
195

188

40000

200

150

30000

100

20000
NUMBER OF
ENGINE

10000

4671

SALES
VALUE

8495

50

18

9
0
THRUST
(X1000 LBS)

11058

8998

0
T/P
L410,
ATR42/ 72,
DHC- 8

<12
328JET
CRJ-200/700/900
EMB135/145/170/190
ARJ21/SSJ

12-35

35-65

A318/A319/A320
A321
B757/B767/B737
MRJ/CS100,300

A300/A310/A330
A340-500,600
B747/B757/B767
B787

42

65-115
A380
A350
B777

6.

Forecast Methodology
The methodology adopted is a regionally and range segmented top-down

approach and is not reliant on the fleet plan of individual airlines.

World fleet forecast flow is divided into 3 categories, passenger forecast,
available seats forecast and fleet forecast, as shown in chart below.
Passenger forecast by region depends on GDP and yields of each region.
ASK forecast required to carry passengers forecasted depends on current fleet
composition and routes analysis by range, seats category, taking account of current
aircraft retirement.

ASK distribution by aircraft size and range category in the future

are calculated by using the base year's ideal ASK distribution and the growth rates of
ASK. Then, shift of aircraft size is considered to link with ASK growth in each segment.
The required ASK will be filled by ASK of retained fleet considered with the
retirement, and the rest will be delivery ASK. After the ASK of backlog aircraft to be
delivered will be excluded from the delivery ASK, the rest will be new delivery (open)
ASK.
At last, the open ASK will be assigned to new aircraft which will be available in
the forecast year, and suitable in size and range. At the same time, it will be also
considered the market share of the aircraft manufacturer. And number of new aircraft
will be calculated from the ASK assigned.

43

The Worldwide Market Forecast for Commercial Air Transport 2011 - 2030 can
be found on the internet at: http//www.jadc.or.jp/.
For

more

information

and

questions

about

this

document,

tugai@jadc.or.jp by e-mail.

Published by Japan Aircraft Development Corporation

Hibiya Kokusai Bldg. 7F, 2-2-3, Uchisaiwai-cho,
Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0011, Japan
TEL: Tokyo (03) 3503-3212
FAX: Tokyo (03) 3504-0368

44

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