Econometrics Project

Database

Student: Monor Eduard Andrei

Numar matricol: 31040701SL111341

Specializare: Business Administration

Contents
1.Introduction
2.Database
3.Descriptive Statistics
4.Single linear regression
5.Bivariate correlations
6.Partial correlations
7.Mean Comparison
8.Durbin-Watson test
9.Kolmogorov-Smirnov test
10.Heteroscedasticity white test
11.Conclusion
12.Bibliography

1.Introduction
Death rate is a measure of the number of deaths (in general, or due to a specific cause) in a
population, scaled to the size of that population, per unit of time. Mortality rate is typically
expressed in units of deaths per 1000 individuals per year; thus, a mortality rate of 9.5 (out of
1000) in a population of 1,000 would mean 9.5 deaths per year in that entire population, or 0.95%
out of the total. It is distinct from morbidity rate, which refers to the number of individuals in poor
health during a given time period (the prevalence rate) or the number of newly appearing cases
of the disease per unit of time (incidence rate). The term "mortality" is also sometimes
inappropriately used to refer to the number of deaths among a set of diagnosed hospital cases for
a disease or injury, rather than for the general population of a country or ethnic group. This
disease mortality statistic is more precisely referred to as "case fatality rate". There are two death
rates ,
In regard to the success or failure of medical treatment or procedures, one would distinguish:
The early death rate, the total number of deaths in the early stages of an ongoing treatment, or in
the period immediately following an acute treatment.
The late death rate, the total number of deaths in the late stages of an ongoing treatment, or a
significant length of time after an acute treatment.
Considerable progress has been made in improving health over the past 100 years in Australia,
evidenced by substantial decreases in age-standardised mortality rates and increases in life
expectancy. The following improvements have contributed to the decline in death rates:
1. Improved understanding of environmental factors that affect health and the resulting
improvements to public infrastructure ( clean water supply, sewerage, sanitation, housing, and
improved food supply).
2.Improved understanding of health risk and beneficial factors, and improvement in general
education levels within the general population. These improvements have contributed to changes
in behaviour within the general community, resulting in reductions in the incidence of some
diseases. For example, understanding the association between respiratory diseases ( lung
cancer and emphysema) and tobacco smoking has led to anti-smoking campaigns, while
understanding exposure to the sun and risk of skin cancer has led to sun-safe campaigns. Also,
work safety and road safety campaigns and improvements in transport infrastructure have
reduced deaths due to injury.
2.Medical and surgical advances ( antibiotics, immunisation, blood pressure lowering drugs,
imaging equipment, surgical techniques) and improvements in access to medical and other
health services.
In my project I want to test how low can the mortality rate drop , I want to test the realation of the
mortality rate with different death causes like : Heartdisease ; Car accidents ; Alzheimer ; Suicide

and Cancer . I want to see how low the death rate can drop if we can decrease the number of
death , occurred from one of the causes listed before , to a minimum .
In this project I have chosen the U.S.A. death rate from 2007 as database , we will find the death
rate for cancer , heart disease , Alzheimer , car accidents and suicides for 100000 people in a
year for each state .

2.Database
State

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Californ
Colorado
Connecti
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisian
Maine
Maryland
Massachu
Michigan
Minnesot
Mississi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New
Hamp
New Jers
New Mexi
New York
North Ca
North Da
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylv
Rhode Is
South Ca
South Da
Tennesse
Texas

Death
rate at
100000
1007.51
783.73
777.71
937.27
729.54
761.66
710.48
835.92
767.68
935.26
625.18
777.71
813.84
889.10
750.62
812.84
964.36
1010.52
818.86
820.86
747.61
825.88
699.44
1025.58
887.09
806.81
767.68
900.14
753.63
764.67
803.80
740.58
891.11
725.53
865.02
977.41
790.76
824.88
755.64
919.21
769.68
974.40
848.96

Heart
disease

Cancer

Accidents

Alzheimer

Suicides

115.40
153.54
202.71
113.40
154.54
178.62
191.67
214.75
153.54
154.54
142.50
176.62
182.64
119.42
156.55
195.68
187.65
141.49
175.61
161.56
178.62
143.50
165.58
189.66
169.59
165.58
197.69
206.72
168.59

202.71
171.60
161.56
206.72
167.58
158.55
178.62
198.69
176.62
185.65
151.53
173.61
191.67
199.70
183.64
185.65
218.76
209.73
204.71
191.67
185.65
192.67
168.59
206.72
197.69
184.64
175.61
189.66
186.65

153.54
178.62
197.69
126.44
157.55
197.69
135.47
125.44
185.65
145.51
149.52
174.61
135.47
199.70
154.54
152.53
178.62
134.47
139.49
195.68
197.69
167.58
153.54
135.47
198.69
155.54
137.48
191.67
167.58

45.16
57.20
37.13
47.16
62.22
39.14
34.12
42.15
61.21
57.20
71.25
39.14
44.15
73.26
38.13
45.16
48.17
51.18
67.23
35.12
51.18
55.19
71.25
77.27
61.21
42.15
71.25
52.18
55.19

11.04
13.05
18.06
21.07
8.03
19.07
11.04
21.07
17.06
16.06
22.08
9.03
14.05
12.04
19.07
7.02
14.05
19.07
16.06
23.08
8.03
15.05
13.05
17.06
14.05
19.07
13.05
8.03
11.04

151.53
176.62
157.55
189.66
196.69
167.58
155.54
198.69
199.70
191.67
168.59
131.46
119.42
177.62

184.64
162.57
171.60
191.67
172.60
197.69
196.69
186.65
195.68
186.65
196.69
181.63
209.73
176.62

175.61
142.50
127.44
148.52
159.56
135.47
129.45
165.58
154.54
185.65
145.51
144.50
171.60
129.45

35.12
41.14
42.15
51.18
55.19
57.20
65.23
77.27
62.22
64.22
58.20
71.25
64.22
61.21

17.06
12.04
15.05
18.06
15.05
23.08
9.03
11.04
8.03
17.06
12.04
21.07
15.05
21.07

Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washingt
Washingt
West Vir
Wisconsi
Wyoming

766.67
743.59
825.88
754.63
985.44
977.41
760.65
816.85

172.60
149.52
136.48
191.67
148.52
171.60
154.54
154.54

136.48
174.61
188.66
179.63
194.68
208.73
183.64
169.59

128.45
138.48
152.53
129.45
114.40
165.58
153.54
145.51

59.21
24.08
35.12
49.17
42.15
58.20
51.18
68.24

18.06
17.06
16.06
12.04
8.03
15.05
7.02
12.04

3.Descriptive statistics
Descriptive Statistics

Death.rate
Cancer
Heart.disease
Alzheimer
Accidents
Suicide
Valid N (listwise)

N
Statistic
51
51
51
51
51
51
51

Mean
Statistic
827.9859
185.3720
167.0532
53.4413
156.2115
14.6983

Std.
Deviation
Statistic
93.45107
16.19225
24.64883
12.79585
23.28178
4.48251

Skewness
Statistic
Std.
.524
-.499
-.293
-.040
.448
.019

Error
.333
.333
.333
.333
.333
.333

4.Single liniar regression

Death rate Heart disease
Va ria ble s Ente re d/Re m oveb
d
Model
1

Variables
Entered
Heart.
a
dis eas e

V ariables
Removed

Method
.

Enter

a. All reques ted variables entered.

b. Dependent V ariable: Death.rate

Mode l Summa ry
Model
1

R
.220a

R Square
.049

Adjusted
R Square
.029

Std. Error of
the Estimate
92.07888

a. Predictors: (Constant), Heart.disease

R=0.220
The link between the Death rate and the number of people that
die from hearth disease is not so powerfull
ANOVAb
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
21207.644
415447.5
436655.1

df

a. Predictors: (Constant), Heart.disease

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

R=

ESS
21207.644
=
=0.2203
TSS
436655.1

R2=0.0485

1
49
50

Mean Square
21207.644
8478.520

F
2.501

Sig.
.120a

The value R2=0.0485 indicates the fact that 4.85% from the
variation of the dependent value , the death rate , its not
influenced very much by the independent value , the number of
people who die from heart disease

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Heart.disease

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
967.565
89.191
-.836
.528

a. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Yxi=967.565-0.836xi

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.220

t
10.848
-1.582

Sig.
.000
.120

S
c
a
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V
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:
D
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.
r
a
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.1
1
0
.9
0
0
0.

Death.re

.7
8
0
.6
0
0.-2R
-1
0
1
2
3
e
g
rsio
n
S
ta
n
d
rize
d
P
re
d
ic
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d
V
a
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e

__

Death rate Cancer

b
Mode l Summa ry

Model
1

R
.753a

R Square
.567

Adjusted
R Square
.558

Std. Error of
the Estimate
62.13894

a. Predictors: (Constant), Cancer

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate
R=0.753
The link between death rate and the number of people that die from cancer is powerfull

ANOVAb
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
247454.0
189201.2
436655.1

df
1
49
50

Mean Square
247453.966
3861.248

F
64.087

Sig.
.000a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Cancer

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Cancer

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
22.609
100.980
4.345
.543

a. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Yxi=22.609+4.345xi

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.753

t
.224
8.005

Sig.
.824
.000

S
c
a
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r
p
l
o
t
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p
n
d
e
t
V
a
r
i
b
l
e
:
D
a
t
h
.
r
e
119000...0

Death.re

876000...
-4R
-e
2
0
2
4
g
rsio
nS
tan
drizedP
red
ictedV
alu
e

__

Death rate Accidents

Model Summary
Model
1

R
.132a

Adjusted
R Square
-.003

R Square
.018

Std. Error of
the Estimate
93.56802

a. Predictors: (Constant), Accidents

R=0.132
The link between death rate and the number of people that die
from accidents is week
ANOVAb
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
7661.363
428993.8
436655.1

df
1
49
50

Mean Square
7661.363
8754.975

F
.875

Sig.
.354a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Accidents

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Accidents

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
911.041
89.746
-.532
.568

a. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Yxi=911.041+0.532xi

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.132

t
10.151
-.935

Sig.
.000
.354

S
c
a
t
e
r
p
l
o
t
D
e
p
n
d
e
t
V
a
r
i
b
l
e
:
D
a
t
h
.
r
e
.19
1
0
00..0

Death.re

.6
8
0
70
0..-2-1012
R
eg
rsio
n
S
tan
drized
P
red
icted
V
alu
e

__

Death rate Alzheimer

b
Mode l Summa ry

Model
1

R
.103a

R Square
.011

Adjusted
R Square
-.010

Std. Error of
the Estimate
93.89474

a. Predictors: (Constant), Alzheimer

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate
R=0.103

The link between death rate and the number of people that die
from Alzheimer is week
Coefficientsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Alzheimer

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
787.665
56.995
.754
1.038

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.103

t
13.820
.727

Sig.
.000
.471

F
.529

Sig.
.471a

a. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

ANOVAb
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
4660.255
431994.9
436655.1

a. Predictors: (Constant), Alzheimer

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Yxi=787.665+0.754xi

df
1
49
50

Mean Square
4660.255
8816.222

S
c
a
t
e
r
p
l
o
t
D
e
p
n
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V
a
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:
D
a
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h
.
r
a
t
e
.1
1
0
.9
0
0
0.

Death.re

.6
8
0
7
.0.-3-2-1012
0
R
e
g
rsio
n
S
ta
n
d
rize
d
P
re
d
ic
te
d
V
a
lu
e

__

Death rate Suicides

b
Mode l Sum m a ry

Model
1

R
.037a

Adjusted
R Square
-.019

R Square
.001

Std. Error of
the Estimate
94.33692

a. Predictors: (Constant), Suicide

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate
R=0.037

The link between death rate and the number of people that die from suicide is week

ANOVAb
Model
1

Regression
Residual
Total

Sum of
Squares
581.849
436073.3
436655.1

df
1
49
50

Mean Square
581.849
8899.455

F
.065

Sig.
.799a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Suicide

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Coe fficie ntsa

Model
1

(Constant)
Suicide

Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
839.172
45.697
-.761
2.976

a. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Yxi=839.172+0.761xi

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.037

t
18.364
-.256

Sig.
.000
.799

S
c
a
t
e
r
p
l
o
t
D
e
p
n
d
e
t
V
a
r
i
b
l
e
:
D
a
t
h
.
r
e
119000...0

Death.re

876000...
-2R
-e
1
0
1
2
g
rsio
nS
tan
drizedP
red
icted
V
alu
e

__

5.Bivariate correlations
Corre la tions
Death.rate

Heart.diseas e

Pears on Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pears on Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Death.rate
1
51
-.220
.120
51

Heart.disease
-.220
.120
51
1
51

Corre la tions
Death.rate

Cancer

Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Death.rate
1
51
.753**
.000
51

Canc er
.753**
.000
51
1
51

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Corre la tions
Death.rate

Acc idents

Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Death.rate
1
51
-.132
.354
51

Ac cidents
-.132
.354
51
1
51

Corre la tions
Death.rate

A lzheimer

P ears on Correlation
S ig. (2-tailed)
N
P ears on Correlation
S ig. (2-tailed)
N

Death.rate
1
51
.103
.471
51

Alzheimer
.103
.471
51
1
51

Corre la tions
Death.rate

S uicide

Pears on Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Pears on Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Death.rate
1
51
-.037
.799
51

Suicide
-.037
.799
51
1
51

6.Partial correlations
Correlations
Control Variables
Death.rate

Heart.disease

Cancer

Accidents

Alzheimer

Suicide

Correlation
Significance (2-tailed)
df
Correlation
Significance (2-tailed)
df
Correlation
Significance (2-tailed)
df
Correlation
Significance (2-tailed)
df
Correlation
Significance (2-tailed)
df

Heart.disease
1.000
.
0
.031
.828
48
.019
.896
48
-.005
.972
48
-.167
.247
48

Cancer
.031
.828
48
1.000
.
0
.143
.323
48
-.006
.969
48
-.019
.896
48

Accidents
.019
.896
48
.143
.323
48
1.000
.
0
.010
.946
48
-.098
.500
48

Alzheimer
-.005
.972
48
-.006
.969
48
.010
.946
48
1.000
.
0
-.073
.614
48

Suicide
-.167
.247
48
-.019
.896
48
-.098
.500
48
-.073
.614
48
1.000
.
0

7.Mean Comparison
Death rate Heart disease
ANOVA
Death.rate

Between Groups
W ithin Groups
Total

Sum of
Squares
377961.5
58693.625
436655.1

df
38
12
50

Mean Square
9946.355
4891.135

F
2.034

Sig.
.093

F
4.556

Sig.
.002

F
.749

Sig.
.768

F
1.050

Sig.
.456

F
.663

Sig.
.794

Death rate - Cancer

ANOVA
Death.rate

Between Groups
W ithin Groups
Total

Sum of
Squares
402317.0
34338.111
436655.1

df
36
14
50

Mean Square
11175.473
2452.722

Death rate - Accidents

ANOVA
Death.rate

Between Groups
W ithin Groups
Total

Sum of
Squares
258712.1
177943.0
436655.1

df
33
17
50

Mean Square
7839.761
10467.236

Death rate - Alzheimer

ANOVA
Death.rate

Between Groups
W ithin Groups
Total

Sum of
Squares
241119.3
195535.8
436655.1

df
27
23
50

Mean Square
8930.344
8501.559

Death rate - Suicides

ANOVA
Death.rate

Between Groups
W ithin Groups
Total

Sum of
Squares
89477.999
347177.1
436655.1

df
14
36
50

Mean Square
6391.286
9643.809

8.Durbin-Watson test .
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1

R
R Square
.220a
.049

Adjusted
R Square
.029

Std. Error of
the Estimate
92.07888

R Square
Change
.049

F Change
2.501

df1

49

Sig. F Change
.120

DurbinWatson
2.157

49

Sig. F Change
.000

DurbinWatson
2.150

df2
1

a. Predictors: (Constant), Heart.disease

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1

R
R Square
.753a
.567

Adjusted
R Square
.558

Std. Error of
the Estimate
62.13894

R Square
Change
.567

F Change
64.087

df1

df2
1

a. Predictors: (Constant), Cancer

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1

R
R Square
.132a
.018

Adjusted
R Square
-.003

Std. Error of
the Estimate
93.56802

R Square
Change
.018

F Change
.875

df1

49

Sig. F Change
.354

DurbinWatson
2.166

49

Sig. F Change
.471

DurbinWatson
2.243

49

Sig. F Change
.799

DurbinWatson
2.159

df2
1

a. Predictors: (Constant), Accidents

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1

R
R Square
.103a
.011

Adjusted
R Square
-.010

Std. Error of
the Estimate
93.89474

R Square
Change
.011

F Change
.529

df1

df2
1

a. Predictors: (Constant), Alzheimer

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1

R
R Square
.037a
.001

Adjusted
R Square
-.019

a. Predictors: (Constant), Suicide

b. Dependent Variable: Death.rate

Std. Error of
the Estimate
94.33692

R Square
Change
.001

F Change
.065

df1

df2
1

9.Kolmogorov-smirnov test
Death rate - Heart disease
Tests of Normality

Death.rate

Kolmogorov-Smirnov
Statistic
df
Sig.
.260
2
.260
2
.222
4
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.378
3

Heart.disease
119.42
153.54
154.54
165.58
168.59
176.62
178.62
189.66
191.67

Shapiro-W ilk
df

Statistic
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Sig.

.922

.548

.767

.037

Death rate - Cancer

Te sts of Norma lity

Death.rate

Cancer
171.60
176.62
183.64
184.64
185.65
186.65
191.67
196.69
197.69
206.72
209.73

Kolmogorov-Smirnov
Statistic
df
Sig.
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.246
3
.368
3
.356
3
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2

Statistic
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

.970
.790
.818

Shapiro-W ilk
df

3
3
3

Sig.

.667
.092
.157

Death rate - Accidents

Tests of Norma lity

Death.rate

Accidents
129.45
135.47
145.51
152.53
153.54
154.54
165.58
167.58
178.62
185.65
197.69

Kolmogorov-Smirnov
Statistic
df
Sig.
.207
3
.216
4
.340
3
.260
2
.314
3
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.260
2
.184
3

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Shapiro-W ilk
Statistic
df
.992
3
.978
4
.850
3

Sig.
.832
.893
.239

.892

.361

.999

.927

Death rate - Alzheimer

Tests of Normality

Death.rate

Alzheimer
35.12
39.14
42.15
45.16
51.18
55.19
57.20
58.20
61.21
62.22
64.22
71.25
77.27

Kolmogorov-Smirnov
Statistic
df
Sig.
.359
3
.260
2
.274
4
.260
2
.271
4
.279
3
.186
3
.260
2
.260
3
.260
2
.260
2
.277
4
.260
2

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Statistic
.811

Shapiro-W ilk
df
3

Sig.
.141

.933

.610

.892
.939
.998

4
3
3

.394
.525
.920

.958

.607

.870

.298

Death rate Suicides

Tests of Normality

Death.rate

Suicide
7.02
8.03
9.03
11.04
12.04
13.05
14.05
15.05
16.06
17.06
18.06
19.07
21.07
23.08

Kolmogorov-Smirnov
Statistic
df
Sig.
.260
2
.
.200
5
.200
.260
2
.
.325
4
.
.217
5
.200
.318
3
.
.177
3
.
.248
5
.200
.366
3
.
.442
5
.002
.356
3
.
.334
4
.
.244
4
.
.260
2
.

Statistic

Shapiro-W ilk
df

Sig.

.937

.642

.845
.951
.887
1.000
.839
.795
.628
.816
.786
.966

4
5
3
3
5
3
5
3
4
4

.211
.744
.344
.971
.161
.103
.001
.153
.079
.819

10.Heteroscedasticity white test

H
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:
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Frequncy

846
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__

ExpectdCumProb

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RegrsionStadrizedRsidual

__

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re
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ic
te
d
V
a
lu
e

11.Conclusion
I would like to say that the mortality rate can be decreased , if we could reduce the
number of death occurred from the causes presented in this project to a minimum ,
but the difference wouldnt be very big .
Even though the decrease of the death rate can happen it would be very difficult in
our time , because diseases sprea much faster and our bodies are degrading a lot
because of the food we eat , the environment we live in is also harmfull , accidents
can always happen and many of them will end up with somebody dying .
In a perfect society the death rate can be decreased , but in order to achieve that
we have a lot of work ahead . Inspite of all the posibilites that the nowadays society
offers our life is in most of the times in our own hands , we can pretty much decide
when we will die by being carefull what we feed ourselves with , by changing the
environment when we decide to live in , by driving safely and by taking the proper
medication to sustain our health .
To sum up , I can say that we can control the death rate , but to do that would
require us to change a lot of nowdays society aspects , to take radical measures
against: pollution , unhealthy food , car accidents , the lack of proper equipement
and medication in hospitals , povertry and many more aspects that are encountered
at every step in the society we live in , which would be almost imposible to achieve
in the foresseable future .

12.Bibliografy
1.http://www.aihw.gov.au/why-have-death-rates-declined/
2.http://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_4_reasons_for_a_decrease
_in_Death_Rate
3.http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr
4.http://www.ibm.com/support/docview.wss?uid=swg21476748
5.http://www.spssxdiscussion.1045642.n5.nabble.com/Heteroscedasticity-Testtd1074937.html
6.http://www.stat.tamu.edu/spss.php
7.http://www.ucdenver.edu/academics/colleges/nursing/docume
nts/pdf/survivalhowto.pdf
8.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dep
endent_territories_by_death_rate
9.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate