Volatility Indian Stock Market

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Volatility in Indian Stock Market
Projects, Thesis, Dissertation – projectsparadise.com
Uploaded for projectsparadise.com
PREFACE
A project report on stock market is being prepared in attempts to interpret in-depth study
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Ser. No 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
Content EXECUTIVE SUMMARY RESEARCH PLAN INTRODUCTION
INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET OVERVIEW
Page no. 4 5 6 6 12 13 23 33 46 57 68 82 85 87 89 90
STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS
JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
SENSEX MILESTONE FINDINGS CONCLUSION RECOMMENDATIONS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com 1.0 EXCUTIVE SUMMARY
Stock market is an avenue for growth of earnings. This project includes how broking is bein
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com 2.0 RESEARCH PLAN
Title: Volatility in Indian Stock Market Objectives :
To study volatility in Indian stock market while taking SENSEX of Bombay stock exchange as
To
furnish
institutional
material
relevant
for
understanding
the
environment in which stock market fluctuation are occurring.
Scope :
This study can be used by investors, traders and other professionals as a supplement to the
Hypothesis :
This is the exploratory research which tries to shows the factors which are making stock ma
In the given volatile economic conditions, the market is efficient to any news and informat
Sources of data :
Data used in this study is of secondary in nature. Sensex and Nifty is taken as a source of
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com 3.0 INTRODUCTION
Stock exchanges to some extent play an important role as indicators, reflecting the perform
1.1 INDIAN CAPITAL MARKET OVERVIEW 1.1.1 Evolution
Indian Stock Markets are one of the oldest in Asia. Its history dates back to nearly 200 ye
1.1.2 Trading Pattern of the Indian Stock Market Projects, Thesis, Dissertation – projectsp
Trading in Indian stock exchanges is limited to listed securities of public limited compani
1.1.3 Over The Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI)
The traditional trading mechanism prevailed in the Indian stock markets gave way to many fu
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Trading at OTCEI is done over the centers spread across the country. Securities traded on t
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com 1.1.4 National Stock Exchange (NSE)
With the liberalization of the Indian economy, it was found inevitable to lift the Indian s
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Investors can trade at the same price from anywhere in the country since inter-market opera
1.1.5 Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE) - Sensex
For the premier Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India, 128 year
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methodology.
Due to is wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors; SENSEX is regarded to be the pulse
The growth of equity markets in India has been phenomenal in the decade gone by. Right from
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com 4.0 STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS
In this stock market analysis, I have taken data of Sensex and Nifty for the period of 6 mo
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com 4.1 NIFTY JULY
Date
Open
High
Low
Close
03-Jul-2006 3128.75 3160.35 3114.85 3150.95 04-Jul-2006 3151.05 3177.40 3130.30 3138.65 05-
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SENSEX JULY
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ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS AND GLOBAL MARKET 1st week ended on 7th July 2006 The
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The BSE Oil & Gas index was down 2.23% to close at 5,175.18. Neyveli Lignite Corporation (N
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Jet Airways slipped 6.05% to settle at Rs 553.55. The aviation company raised fuel surcharg
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On Friday, the Sensex fell sharply by 180 points, to settle at 10,678.22. The market sentim
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Heavy FII sales, weak global markets and concerns that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may
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of firm cement prices. ACC’s profit-after-tax (before extra-ordinary items) jumped 85.9% to
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For the week ended Friday (28 July), the BSE Sensex gained 594 points, to settle at 10,680.
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(Rs 662.81 crore). Net sales, too, was in line with forecasts. Formulation exports jumped 4
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com 4.2 NIFTY AUGUST
Date 01-Aug-2006 02-Aug-2006 03-Aug-2006 04-Aug-2006 07-Aug-2006 08-Aug-2006 09-Aug-2006 10
SENSEX AUGUST Projects, Thesis, Dissertation – projectsparadise.com 22
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ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS AND GLOBAL MARKET 1st week ended on 4th August 2006 T
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The BSE IT Index gained 3.1% for the week to settle at 4,018.66. Infosys gained 3.18% for t
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Cement shares rose on the back of strong despatches from cement majors. GACL rose marginall
2nd week ended on 11th August 2006 The benchmark index, the BSE Sensex, crossed the 11,000
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The Sensex gained for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, adding 130 points on US Fede
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Raymond surged 4.38%, to close at Rs 393.15. The company has formed a joint venture company
3rd Week ended on 18th August 2006 Firm Asian markets coupled with a fall in crude oil pric
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FIIs invested to the tune of Rs 962.6 crore in two trading sessions, on Monday and Wednesda
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Reliance Industries gained 4.3% for the week, to close at Rs 1,055.50. As per reports, RIL
4th week ended on 25th August 2006 The market firmed up further last week, extending its re
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Reliance Industries rose over 5%, to finish at Rs 1,110.50 on renewed buying. But pharma ma
4.3 NIFTY SEPTEMBER
Date 01-Sep-2006 04-Sep-2006 05-Sep-2006 06-Sep-2006 07-Sep-2006 08-Sep-2006 11-Sep-2006 12
Open 3414.00 3435.55 3471.40 3474.40 3477.15 3454.65 3470.35 3363.30
High 3439.50 3483.10 3488.60 3490.70 3478.85 3477.95 3486.65 3395.05
Low 3402.90 3435.55 3457.90 3465.80 3438.80 3442.85 3351.30 3328.45
Close 3435.45 3476.85 3473.75 3477.25 3454.55 3471.45 3366.15 3389.90
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13-Sep-2006 14-Sep-2006 15-Sep-2006 18-Sep-2006 19-Sep-2006 20-Sep-2006 21-Sep-2006 22-Sep-
SENSEX SEPTEMBER
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ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS AND GLOBAL MARKET 1st week ended on 1st September 200
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The BSE Sensex jumped 205.82 points, or 1.7%, to a 3-½ month closing high of 11,778.02, in
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Bank shares extended their recent recovery. Buying was conspicuous in stocks like ICICI Ban
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The markets gained for the second week in September on the back of continued inflow from FI
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Cement shares were in demand on expectations of a pick-up in demand postmonsoon. ACC gained
3rd Week ended on 15th September on 2006
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The BSE Sensex rallied for the week, breaching the 12,000 mark for the first time since 18
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FIIs invested in equities to the tune of Rs 985 crore for the first four days of the week (
4th Week ended on 22th September on 2006 The market surged for the third consecutive week o
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The market also rose on expectations that the RBI may keep short-term interest rates unchan
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FMCG giant Hindustan Lever rose 5.6% in a week, to close at Rs 257.25. The company has hike
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On Wednesday, the BSE Sensex rose 46 points. It was in the pink of health till lateafternoo
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shares worth a net Rs 1,218 crore, in the month (till 28 September), compared to an inflow
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4.4 NIFTY OCTOBER
Date 03-Oct-2006 04-Oct-2006 05-Oct-2006 06-Oct-2006 09-Oct-2006 10-Oct-2006 11-Oct-2006 12
44
SENSEX OCTOBER
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ANLAYSIS OF STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS AND GLOBAL MARKET
1st week ended on 6th October 2006 The market eased a bit last week as FIIs and traders res
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India s wholesale price index rose 4.77% in the 12 months to 23 September, higher than 4.56
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Grasim was marginally up (0.05%), closing at Rs 2,520.90. Gujarat Ambuja rose 4.36%, to clo
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India s wholesale price index rose 5.16% in the 12 months to 30 September, higher than 4.77
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(N2N) scheme of Maruti. ONGC has decided to initially lease 29 vehicles through MUL on a pi
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On Friday, the Sensex witnessed high volatility, swinging 169 points from the day’s high of
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crore from Rs 354.12 crore. Sales rose 11% to Rs 1,601.88 crore, from Rs 1,442.93 crore in
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crore from Rs 119.62 crore. Revenue has rose 10.8%, from Rs 3,371.60 crore to Rs 3,736.07 c
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70.4% to Rs 270.51 crore (Rs 158.69 crore). Net sales rose 30% to Rs 2,490.50 crore (Rs 1,9
On 21 October, JHS Svendgaard Laboratories ended at Rs 57.05, a marginal discount to the IP
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4.5 NIFTY NOVEMBER
Date 01-Nov-2006 02-Nov-2006 03-Nov-2006 06-Nov-2006 07-Nov-2006 08-Nov-2006 09-Nov-2006 10
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com SENSEX NOVEMBER
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ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET FLUCTUATIONS AND GLOBAL MARKET 1st week on 2nd November 2006 Marke
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The Sensex rose 223.98 points or 1.73% for the week ended 3 November 2006 to 13,130.79. Nif
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FMCG major, Hindustan Lever (HLL) advanced 4.15% to Rs 236 for the week. The company posted
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The market continued its winning streak on the back of sustained buying for bluechips. The
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Following a recent tie-up between the two, MUL was to make cars in collaboration with Nissa
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years. Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Tuesday the economy can sustain 8 - 10% growt
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Gujarat Ambuja Cements rose 1.37% for the week to Rs 135.65. On 16 November, two big deals
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The blue-chip Dow average achieved its longest winning streak since August, rising 54.11 po
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Siemens lost 1.71% to Rs 1,172.50, after the company reported 32% growth in net profit for
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4.6
Date 01-Dec-2006 04-Dec-2006 05-Dec-2006 06-Dec-2006 07-Dec-2006 08-Dec-2006 11-Dec-2006 12
NIFTY DECEMBER
Open 3955.70 4002.40 4001.25 4016.00 4015.00 4015.75 3961.90 3849.10 3716.75 3765.70 3849.6
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com SENSEX DECEMBER
Date
Open
High 13,929.10 13,960.39 13,911.59 13,726.62 13,493.88 13,441.36 13,568.09 13,748.62 13,744
Low 13,770.06 13,819.77 13,734.01 13,490.77 13,362.11 13,182.35 13,232.56 13,237.39 13,416.
Close 13,786.91 13,846.34 13,859.69 13,708.34 13,471.74 13,384.86 13,340.21 13,382.01 13,73
29-Dec-06 13,873.03 28-Dec-06 13,893.29 27-Dec-06 13,734.01 26-Dec-06 13,501.44 22-Dec-06 1
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ANALYSIS 1st week on 1st December 2006 The market kept its rally intact as investors contin
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Sensex jumped 148.47 points to 13,844.78 on Friday (1 December), a record closing following
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GE Shipping re-listed on 27 November at Rs 264.65, and settled at Rs 222.70 that day, compa
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Sensex jumped 148.47 points to 13,844.78 on Friday (1 December), a record closing following
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GE Shipping re-listed on 27 November at Rs 264.65, and settled at Rs 222.70 that day, compa
3rd week ended on 15th December 2006 The BSE Sensex snapped its winning streak, posting a l
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The BSE Sensex jumped 186.32 points on 13 December, to settle at 13,181.34, on bargain-hunt
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after a steep decline in the past four days. ONGC Mittal Energy (OMEL), the joint venture b
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left its target for federal funds at 5.25%. The funds rate, the interest that banks charge
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Japanese car giant Suzuki has a majority 54.2% stake in the company. The government s stake
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Newsco Newtech and Discovery Hydrocarbons with the company. It also involved demerger of Ji
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plans to enter the Latin American market. The company announces its Q3 December 2006 result
Simvastatin is the generic equivalent of Merck & Co. Inc. s blockbuster drug Zocor. Relianc
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On 29 December 2006, Nissan Copper settled at a sharp 230.25% premium at Rs 128.80 on BSE o
5.0 SENSEX MILSESTONES
The Sensex crossed the 1,000 mark on July 25, 1990; the 2,000 mark on January 15, 1992; the
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the 5,000 mark on October 11, 1999; the 6,000 mark on January 2, 2004; the 7,000 mark on Ju
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9000, December 09, 2005 - The Sensex on November 28, 2005 crossed 9000 to touch 9000.32 poi
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This was a result of increased confidence in the economy and reports that India s manufactu
6.0 FINDINGS Projects, Thesis, Dissertation – projectsparadise.com
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After undertaking the indepth study of stock market and various financial markets, it was f
August 2006 • FIIs invested to the tune of Rs 653.7 crore in the equity segment four days o
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October 2006 • The software outfit announced Q2 September 2006 results on Wednesday (11 Oct
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7.0 CONCLUSIONS
India has been witness to a four-year up and down cycle in the stock markets. Since 1992, t
In short, the following hypothesis have been tested and proved positive.
Any fluctuation in foreign market has more effect on Indian stock market than that of domes
In the given volatile economic conditions, the market is efficient to any news and informat
At the end it is concluded that following are Major factors, which have generally contribut
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
US economic growth Crude oil prices Emerging market valuations Foreign direct investment (F
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10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Foreign institutional investors (FII) withdrawals US Fed interest rates
8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS
After this study, I would like to give following recommendations, which can help to the Inv
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Investors I would suggest that Long term Investors should not invest into panic market, whi
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Uploaded for projectsparadise.com 9.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY
Magazines
1. Business week 2. Frontline 3. Business world
News papers
1. 2. 3. 4. Business standard Financial express Economic times Times of India
Websites
1. www.capitalmarket.com . 2. www.wikipedia.org 3. www.google.com 4. www.yahoofinance.com 5
Reports and Journals
1. NSE journal 2. BSE journal
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