Medical College Admission Test

Using MCAT Data in Medical

Student Selection

MCAT is a program of the

Association of American Medical Colleges
www.aamc.org/mcat

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Dear Admissions Officers,

We are approaching a time of transition as administration of the current Medical
College Admission Test (MCAT), in use since 1991, will end in January 2015.
In spring 2015, the AAMC (Association of American Medical Colleges) will
introduce a new version of the MCAT exam. Shortly thereafter, in summer 2015
when the 2016 application cycle opens, you will receive scores from applicants
who took the new exam, as well as scores from applicants who took the current
exam. What this means for you is that this is the last year that applicants to your
school will report MCAT scores for the current exam only, and the last year in
which this guide focuses solely on the interpretation and use of scores from the
current MCAT exam.
We also want to let you know about the changes that prospective applicants will
experience during the transition to the new exam. Weve added extra test dates
in 2014 (and the beginning of 2015) to allow prospective applicants plenty of
chances to take the current exam in October, November, and January. What this
means for you is that you may see more applicants reporting MCAT scores taken
in months where, historically, no MCAT exam was administered.
As we prepare for the release of the new MCAT exam, the AAMC will be
available every step of the way to help you make the transition from using scores
from the current exam to using scores from the new exam. Please dont hesitate
to contact us if you have questions. You can reach us by phone at 202-828-0899,
or by email at mcat2015@aamc.org.
Sincerely,
Cynthia A. Searcy
Director, MCAT Research

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

This guide provides admissions officers and medical school faculty members who serve on admissions
committees with information about the design, interpretation, use, and predictive value of the Medical College
Admission Test (MCAT). It answers the following questions:
What does the MCAT exam measure?...........................................................................................1
How is the MCAT exam scored?.....................................................................................................2
How well do examinees score on the MCAT exam?.......................................................................2
How accurate are examinees MCAT scores and how should they be interpreted?.........................3
Why are some MCAT scores marked as non-standard?..................................................................4
How do examinees scores change when they retake the MCAT exam and how do
admissions officers use scores for applicants who test more than once?.........................................4
How do admissions officers use MCAT scores and other application data in the holistic
review of applicants qualifications?...............................................................................................6
How well do undergraduate GPAs (UGPAs) and MCAT scores predict students performance
in medical school?..........................................................................................................................9
References...................................................................................................................................12
Appendix. Relationships between UGPAs, MCAT scores, and USMLE outcomes...........................13

iii

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

What does the MCAT exam measure?

The MCAT exam is designed to measure applicants knowledge of undergraduate, introductory-level biology,
organic chemistry, general chemistry, and physics concepts along with higher-order thinking skills like
hypothesis testing, scientific problem solving, verbal reasoning, and quantitative reasoning. Results for MCAT
exams taken in January 2013 or later include scores for three test sections:
Biological Sciences (BS)
Physical Sciences (PS)
Verbal Reasoning (VR)
The Biological Sciences section examines introductory-level knowledge of biology and organic chemistry
concepts along with test takers skill at identifying main ideas, testing hypotheses, evaluating information,
reasoning with flexibility and adaptability, and reasoning using quantitative data.
The BS section has 52 multiple-choice questions. Thirty-nine of them call for responses to scientific problems
that are described by passages; many also include graphs, tables, or charts. The remaining 13 BS questions are
stand-alone items that do not relate to passages. Examinees have 70 minutes to complete the BS section.
An article about the MCAT exam and what it measures appeared in Science magazine (Zheng, Lawhorn,
Lumley, & Freeman, 2008). It described independent researchers examination of the BS section and the
scientific knowledge and higher-order thinking skills that it tests. The authors reported that 45% of BS
questions test higher-order thinking skills, more than similar questions on the Advanced Placement and
Graduate Record Examination biology examinations or on tests given in the first year of medical school. The
authors concluded that, the biology portion of the MCAT fulfills its stated goal of assessing problem-solving
ability and critical thinking, in addition to mastery of basic biology concepts.
The Physical Sciences section tests examinees introductory-level knowledge of physics and general (inorganic)
chemistry concepts, along with the application of these concepts to scientific problems. The problem-solving
skills the PS section examines, the question formats, and testing time all parallel those in the BS section.
The Verbal Reasoning section of the MCAT exam tests examinees ability to understand, evaluate, and apply
information and arguments presented in prose text, as well as examinees skill at incorporating information.
VR passages are drawn from the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities. All information that test
takers need to respond to VR questions appears in the passages. There are 40 multiple-choice questions; all are
passage based. Examinees have 60 minutes to complete the VR section.
Prior to January 2013, the MCAT exam included a fourth section, the Writing Sample section. This section
tested examinees ability to develop a central idea, synthesize concepts and ideas, present ideas cohesively and
logically, and write clearly following accepted writing conventions.1 Applicants who took the MCAT exam prior
to January 2013 will have MCAT results for this fourth section, reported on an alphabetic scale that ranges
from J (low) to T (high).
The decision to remove the Writing Sample section from the exam was based in part on input from medical
school admissions officers who reported that scores on this section of the test are used for only a very small
group of applicants (e.g., applicants with low Verbal Reasoning or Writing Sample scores, and/or applicants
who have difficulty communicating in their interviews). In place of the Writing Sample section, a voluntary,
unscored trial section was added to the exam to help evaluate test questions in psychology, sociology, and
biochemistry that will be included in the new version of the MCAT exam to be introduced in spring 2015.
The Writing Sample section presented examinees with two open-ended statements (writing prompts) with three associated writing tasks for each. Examinees had
30 minutes to write each essay. Essays were scored twice on a six-point scale, once by an expert reader and once by a computer algorithm. The agreement rates between
expert readers and the computer algorithm were very high; when expert and computer scorers disagreed by more than a point, a second expert provided the final score.
Numeric scores were converted to an alphabetic scale that ranged from J (low) to T (high) for reporting.

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

How is the MCAT exam scored?

Scores on the multiple-choice sections of the MCAT exam are reported on a numeric scale ranging from 1 to
15. Scores on the three multiple-choice sections of the test are summed to create a total score, ranging from
3 to 45. All MCAT results for tests taken in January 2013 or later will include these three section scores and the
total score. In addition, total scores for MCAT exams taken before January 2013 will range from 3 to 45 and
include a Writing Sample score appended at the end (e.g., 28Q).

How well do examinees score on the MCAT exam?

Figure 1 shows the distribution of MCAT total and section scores for all exams administered in 2011 to 2013.
The mean MCAT total score for these exams was 25.2, and the standard deviation was 6.4.2
Figure 2 shows the distributions of MCAT total scores for exams administered from 2011 to 2013 by sex
and racial/ethnic group. It uses box-and-whisker plots, which show the 10th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, and
90th percentile scores for each group. The 10th and 90th percentile scores are shown by the ends of the
whiskers, the 25th and 75th percentile scores are shown by the box (the left edge of each box shows the
25th percentile score, and the right edge shows the 75th percentile score), and the median is shown by the
vertical bar inside each box. For example, the 10th, 25th, median, 75th, and 90th percentile scores for female
examinees were 15, 20, 25, 29, and 32, respectively. The mean MCAT total score for each group appears in
parentheses by the group label.
There is variability in the median MCAT total scores for examinees in different sex and racial/ethnic groups.
However, there is a great deal of overlap in the score distributions for different groups. The similarities and
differences in these data are similar to those reported in the literature for other admissions tests (Roth, Bevier,
Bobko, Switzer, & Tyler, 2001; Sackett & Shen, 2010). Recent research suggests these differences in MCAT total
scores for racial/ethnic minorities do not reflect test bias (Davis, Dorsey, Franks, Sackett, Searcy, & Zhao, 2013).
Figure 1. Distribution of MCAT Total Scores for
Exams Administered in 20112013 (N=270,535)

Figure 2. MCAT Total Scores for Exams Administered in

20112013 by Sex and Race/Ethnicity

20112013 (Mean=25.2, SD=6.4)

Male
(mean=26.3; N=131,591)

Percentage

Female
(mean=24.2; N=138,721)

White
(mean=26.1; N=122,449)

4
3

Pacific Islander
(mean=22.6; N=1,126)

Hispanic
(mean=21.8; N=25,118)

1
0
3

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

Total Score
Score Summary for Exams Administered in 20112013

Physical Sciences
Verbal Reasoning
Biological Sciences

20112013 (N=270,535)
Mean (SD)
8.4 (2.5)
8.0 (2.5)
8.8 (2.5)

39

42

45

Black
(mean=20.2; N=24,085)
Asian
(mean=25.9; N=62,488)
American Indian
(mean=23.2; N=2,888)

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

Total Score

A summary of MCAT total and section scores for all exams administered in 2014 will be provided in November 2014 when the testing year is typically complete.

36

39

42

45

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

How accurate are examinees MCAT scores and how should they be
interpreted?
Like other standardized tests, the MCAT exam is an imperfect measure of test takers achievement. Examinees
scores can be dampened by factors like fatigue, text anxiety, and less than optimal test room conditions, or
they can be boosted by recent exposure to some of the tested topics.
A tests reliability is a reflection of the accuracy with which it measures the knowledge and skills it targets.
Reliability estimates are used to calculate the standard error of measurement (SEM) of examinees test scores.
The SEM is useful because it defines the size of the confidence intervals that surround the reported scores.
Confidence intervals represent the range of test scores within which examinees true achievement levels
probably lie. For MCAT total scores, the SEM is two points.3
An examinees MCAT total score plus or minus two points defines the 68% confidence interval. Adding and
subtracting two points to an MCAT total score of 23, for example, defines a confidence band that begins at
21 and goes to 25. This means that in 68% of cases, the true score for an examinee with a reported score of
23 lays within the band that goes from 21 to 25.
Reviewing applicants scores with the confidence bands in mind prevents over-interpretation of small
differences in test scores. Figures 3 and 4 illustrate how confidence intervals can be used to interpret MCAT
total scores. The reported score for each examinee is shown with a blue box. The 68% confidence interval
around each examinees score is shown by the dashed lines in the figure.
In Figure 3, examinee A scored 23 and examinee B scored 26. The 68% confidence intervals around these
scores overlap. The overlap between the two confidence intervals suggests that the two reported scores may
not be meaningfully different from each other.
Figure 4 shows a score of 21 for examinee C and a score of 28 for examinee D. The confidence intervals
around their scores do not overlap, suggesting the two scores are more likely to be meaningfully different from
each other (compared to examinees A and B).

Figure 4. Confidence Bands for Two Examinees with

Dissimilar Scores

Figure 3. Confidence Bands for Two Examinees with

Similar Reported Scores

Examinee A

Examinee C

Examinee B

Examinee D

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

MCAT total scores provide better estimates of examinees true knowledge and skill levels than do MCAT section scores. This is because MCAT total scores are based on more
multiple-choice questions than are MCAT section scores.

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Why are some MCAT scores marked as non-standard?

Consistent with the Americans with Disabilities Act (1990), the MCAT testing program offers accommodations
to examinees with documented disabilities. Examples of common accommodations include a separate testing
room, extra breaks, extended time for the test, enlarged font, and authorization to bring medication, medical
supplies, or food/drink into the testing room.
In accordance with professional testing standards (American Educational Research Association [AERA],
American Psychological Association [APA], & National Council on Measurement in Education [NCME], 1999),
the AAMC annotates score reports if there is evidence that scores may not be comparable to scores obtained
under standard test administration conditions.

How do examinees scores change when they retake the MCAT exam and how
do admissions officers use scores for applicants who test more than once?
MCAT examinees can test up to three times in one calendar year with no lifetime limit on the number of times
they may test. In 2013, approximately 12% of examinees tested more than once in the same year.
To give admissions committee members a sense of the types of score gains obtained by examinees testing
multiple times, MCAT staff examined MCAT total scores for test takers who initially sat for the MCAT exam
in 2011, 2012, or 2013, and retested in the same year. Figure 5 uses box-and-whisker plots (described earlier
for Figure 2) to illustrate the distribution of score gains (and losses) on examinees second administrations of
the MCAT exam. The data show that re-testers tend to obtain higher scores on their second exams, but the
amount of score improvement varies inversely with examinees initial scores. That is, the lower the initial scores,
the greater the improvement tends to be on re-testing.
Figure 5 shows that the median gain for examinees who tested two or more times in the same year and whose
initial scores ranged from 5 to 23 was two score points; one for examinees whose initial scores ranged from
24 to 26; two for examinees whose initial scores ranged from 27 to 29; one for examinees whose initial scores
ranged from 30 to 35; zero for examinees whose initial scores ranged from 36 to 38; and one for examinees
whose initial scores were 39 or greater. It is important to note, however, that there was considerable variability
in the magnitude and direction of score changes, with some examinees posting increases or decreases greater
than four points. There also was more variability in score changes among examinees with lower initial scores
than those with higher initial scores.
In the 2013 American Medical College Application Service (AMCAS) cycle, approximately 47% of applicants
submitted more than one set of MCAT scores in their application. To understand the ways in which admissions
officials use re-testers MCAT total scores in the admissions process, MCAT staff surveyed medical school
admissions officers in 2008 (Dunleavy, Oppler, & Mitchell, 2008). The results showed that admissions officers
use a number of strategies for examining re-testers scores. For example, some admissions committees use
applicants most recent exam scores in the admissions process, whereas others use applicants best scores
as represented by either the highest total scores or the sum of the highest section scores across multiple
administrations. Other committees compute the average total score across the multiple administrations.
After conducting the survey, MCAT staff analyzed application and medical student outcome data to see
which of these strategies best predicts students performance in medical school. MCAT staff examined the
following student outcomes: four-year graduation rates, five-year graduation rates, withdrawal/dismissal for
academic reasons, and United States Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores (Zhao, Dunleavy, Oppler,
& Kroopnick, 2011; Zhao, Oppler, Dunleavy, & Kroopnick, 2010). Analyses showed that average MCAT total
scores were the most accurate predictors of medical student performance. The other strategies tended to
over-predict the performance of re-testers in medical school. The data also showed that the larger the number

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Figure 5. Changes in MCAT Total Multiple-Choice Scores For Examinees Who Tested in 20112013 and
Re-tested in the Same Year
8 or more
7
6
5
Score Change

4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5 or more

514
(N=1,225)

1517
(N=1,662)

1820
(N=3,094)

2123
(N=5,057)

2426
(N=6,152)

2729
(N=4,796)

3032
(N=1,661)

3335
(N=366)

3638
(N=61)

3945
(N=5)

Initial Total Score Range

of testings, the larger the amount of over-prediction. Therefore, the strategy that results in the most accurate
prediction of medical student performance for the majority of applicants who re-test is the use of average
MCAT total scores.
Despite these findings, it is very important that admissions committee members be aware of the circumstances
of individual applicants and use that information (if available) in considering re-testers scores. For example, if
an applicants scores from a particular administration are out of line with other scoresbecause the applicant
was sick (in the case of an unusually low performance) or recently completed extensive additional study (in the
case of unusually high performance)then that information should be taken into consideration in evaluating
the applicants scores.

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

How do admissions officers use MCAT scores and other application data in
the holistic review of applicants qualifications?
MCAT scores are among many sources of application data that admissions committees use to select medical
students. MCAT scores help admissions officers interpret grades and other academic data that come from
undergraduate institutions with different curricular emphases and grading standards. In addition to applicants
academic data, admissions officers examine applicants experiences and demographic and personal attributes.
Applicants provide a great deal of data about their academic and other experiences and demographics and
personal characteristics through their applications, personal statements, and interviews. Letter writers also provide
rich information about applicants academic, experiential, and personal attributes.
The procedures that admissions officers from different medical schools use to review these varied data differ in ways
that reflect schools unique educational missions and goals and the size of their applicant pools. In 2013, to learn
more about the holistic review of applicants qualifications, AAMC staff surveyed admissions officers about the
relative importance of different academic, experiential, demographic, and personal attribute data in deciding which
applicants to admit.4 The data presented in this report are a subset of the data provided by the admissions officers.
Admissions officers rated the importance of these variables for three phases of the admissions process: deciding
to send a secondary application, extending interview invitations, and extending acceptance offers. In assigning
their ratings, admissions officers used a scale that ranged from 1 to 4 (Not Important, Somewhat Important,
Important, and Very Important, respectively). Only a subset of the medical schools (N=44) reported that
they use application data to decide which applicants to send secondary applications. The majority (N=83) do not
select applicants at this stage; they either send secondary applications to all of their applicants or they do not use
secondary applications.
Table 1 lists the application variables organized in four types: academic metrics, experiences, demographics, and
other sources of applicant information. They are grouped by overall mean importance, reflecting the average ratings
of importance for deciding which applicants to interview and which to admit. Academic metrics that were rated
Important or Very Important for deciding which applicants to interview and accept include cumulative science/
math undergraduate grade point averages (UGPAs), MCAT total scores, trends in undergraduate grades, cumulative
total UGPAs, and performance in post-baccalaureate programs. Experiences that were rated Important or Very
Important for both interview invitations and acceptance offers include health care experience, community service/
volunteer experience, experience with underserved populations, experience navigating through cultural barriers
or challenges, and leadership experience. Interview assessments, letters of evaluation or recommendation, and
personal statements also were rated Important to Very Important.
The mean importance ratings assigned by admissions officers from public versus private institutions differed
significantly for some variables, as shown in italics in Table 1. For example, private institutions rated selectivity
of undergraduate institutions as Important to Very Important (and significantly more important) than did
public institutions; conversely, public institutions rated U.S. citizenship/permanent residency and state residency as
Important to Very Important (and significantly more important) than did private institutions.
There also were differences in importance ratings between the public and private medical schools that use
application data to select the applicants who will receive secondary applications. All 10 of the private schools
selecting applicants to receive secondary applications rated MCAT and UGPA data as Important to Very
Important to their decisions. Approximately 80% of admissions officers from public medical schools gave MCAT
and UGPA data high importance ratings (i.e., Important to Very Important) in deciding which applicants to
send secondary applications; about 10% of public schools rated them as Somewhat Important, and about
10% said they were Not Important.5
The survey was conducted in 2013. The survey asked admissions officers to rate the importance of various application data to admissions decisions. The results are based on
data from 127 U.S. medical schools, consisting of 75 public institutions and 52 private institutions representative of all U.S. medical schools.
For public schools that screen applicants before sending secondary applications, 28 of 34 rated MCAT total scores as Important to Very Important, 2 rated them as
Somewhat Important, and 4 rated them as Not Important. For these same schools, 27 rated UGPAs as Important to Very Important, 3 rated them as Somewhat
Important, and 4 rated them as Not Important.

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Table 1. Mean Importance Ratings of Academic, Experiential, and Demographic Application Data Used by Admissions
Committees for making Decisions about which Applicants to Receive an Interview Invitation and Offer Acceptance (N=127)1

Academic Metrics

Experiences

Demographics2

UGPA: Cumulative
science/math
MCAT total score
Upward or downward
grade trend
UGPA: Cumulative total
Performance in a postbaccalaureate program
Selectivity of
undergraduate
institution (Private) 5

Healthcare experience
Community service/
volunteer experience
Experience with
underserved
populations
Navigated through
cultural barriers or
challenges
Leadership experience


U.S. citizenship/
permanent residency
(Public) 5
State residency (Public) 5

Interview
assessments3
Letters of evaluation
or recommendation
Personal statements

Medium
Importance
Ratings
(>=2.5 and
<3.0)

On schedule to meet

pre-medical coursework
UGPA: Cumulative nonscience/math

Research experience
(Private)5
Experience with
populations unlike the
applicant
Lack of access to
optimal educational
resources
Special family
obligations or other
circumstances
Work or athletic
scholarship obligations
while in school


Rural or urban
background (Public) 5
First-generation college
student

U.S. citizenship/
permanent residency
(Private) 5
Race/ethnicity
Socioeconomic status
(SES)

Secondary
application
responses 4

Lowest
Importance
Ratings
(<2.5)

Completion of
challenging non-science
courses

Selectivity of
undergraduate
institution (Public) 5

Experience with
prejudice

Research experience
(Public) 5


Rural or urban
background (Private) 5
Multilingual
Legacy
Gender
State residency (Private) 5

Mean
Importance
Ratings
Highest
Importance
Ratings
(>= 3.0)

Sources of Applicant
Information

Importance was rated on a four-point scale ranging from 1 to 4 (Not Important, Somewhat Important, Important, and Very Important, respectively). For each variable, we
computed an overall mean importance rating based on admissions officers ratings of importance for making decisions about whom to interview and whom to accept (the mean
importance rating for the interview variable is the exception to this rule because interview data were not available until applicants were invited to interview). We chose to classify
variables using overall mean importance ratings because their mean importance ratings were similar for the interview and the acceptance phases. Variables are ordered by overall mean
importance rating.
2
The demographic variables listed here were culled from a larger list of variables that included personal attributes such as Service Orientation, Integrity, Communication Skills,
and Cultural Competence, for example.
3
Only available at the admissions stage where admissions committees make a decision to offer an acceptance
4
Only available for institutions that use application data to select the applicants who will receive secondary applications
5
Overall mean importance ratings for public and private institutions were significantly different from one another.
1

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

National-level data on the academic credentials of applicants whom admissions committees accept reinforce
the messages these survey data provide. Table 2 shows the percentages of applicants with different UGPAs
and MCAT total scores who were accepted into one or more medical schools in 2011, 2012, and 2013. These
data show that, while UGPAs and MCAT total scores are important factors in admissions, they are not the sole
determinants of admissions decisions. For example, eight percent of applicants with UGPAs of 3.8 or higher
and MCAT total scores of 39 or above were rejected by all of the medical schools to which they applied. In
contrast, about nine percent of applicants with UGPAs of 3.0 to 3.19 and MCAT total scores ranging from
21 to 23 were accepted by at least one medical school.
Table 2. Percentage of 2011-2013 Applicants Accepted into at Least One Medical School, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00
3.60-3.79
3.40-3.59
3.20-3.39
3.00-3.19
2.80-2.99
2.60-2.79
2.40-2.59
2.20-2.39
2.00-2.19
1.47-1.99
All

5-14
2%
2/83
0%
0/159
1%
2/323
0%
0/350
0%
0/390
0%
0/359
0%
0/278
0%
0/188
0%
0/133
0%
0/61
0%
0/45
0%
4/2,372

15-17
3%
4/154
2%
9/395
3%
18/574
1%
7/557
2%
8/525
1%
3/397
1%
3/288
0%
0/155
0%
0/68
0%
0/43
0%
0/10
2%
52/3,166

18-20
13%
70/520
10%
97/994
7%
90/1,228
7%
74/1,131
4%
35/925
4%
24/644
3%
10/351
1%
2/185
1%
1/85
0%
0/47
--

21-23
23%
342/1,480
18%
406/2,268
13%
333/2,598
11%
252/2,235
9%
142/1,539
7%
60/877
5%
25/475
3%
8/229
3%
2/76
0%
0/26
--

24-26
40%
1,401/3,471
27%
1,293/4,761
22%
1,031/4,677
19%
625/3,282
16%
354/2,149
14%
145/1,069
9%
47/504
7%
17/239
9%
8/88
3%
1/29
--

27-29
63%
4,171/6,643
47%
3,716/7,922
35%
2,410/6,969
24%
1,024/4,255
21%
483/2,308
15%
154/994
14%
54/385
14%
23/161
12%
8/66
7%
1/15
--

30-32
78%
6,746/8,617
68%
5,884/8,693
50%
3,570/7,090
37%
1,467/3,987
30%
536/1,805
25%
187/743
24%
70/289
19%
22/115
6%
2/34
13%
2/15
--

33-35
86%
5,893/6,890
77%
4,280/5,536
64%
2,397/3,720
49%
913/1,875
39%
307/785
29%
88/300
28%
34/120
16%
6/38
13%
2/15
--

36-38
89%
3,393/3,792
81%
1,703/2,111
72%
826/1,148
60%
320/529
50%
107/212
30%
26/87
36%
16/45
13%
2/15
--

39-45
92%
1,300/1,419
86%
409/476
75%
169/225
68%
75/110
55%
16/29
34%
10/29
--

7%
403/6,120

13%
1,570/11,812

24%
4,922/20,274

41%
59%
72%
80%
12,044/29,725 18,486/31,392 13,920/19,281 6,393/7,944

86%
1,982/2,301

---

Notes:
1. Dark Green shading = acceptance rates 75%; Light Green shading = acceptance rates of 50-74%; Grey shading = acceptance rates of 25-49%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score in each application year was used in this analysis.

All
71%
23,322/33,069
53%
17,797/33,315
38%
10,846/28,552
26%
4,757/18,311
19%
1,988/10,667
13%
697/5,499
10%
261/2,743
6%
81/1,327
4%
23/573
2%
4/238
0%
0/89
44%
59,776/134,387

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

How well do undergraduate GPAs (UGPAs) and MCAT scores predict

students performance in medical school?
The value of UGPAs and MCAT scores in predicting students performance in medical school has been well
established (Donnon, Paolucci, & Violato, 2007; Dunleavy, Kroopnick, Dowd, Searcy, & Zhao, 2013; Julian,
2005; Koenig & Wiley, 1997; Kroopnick, Dunleavy, Dowd, Searcy, & Zhao, 2013; Kuncel & Hezlett, 2007).
Studies show that undergraduate grades and MCAT scores predict students grades in medical school,
academic difficulty or distinction, time to graduation, scores on USMLE Step exams, and unimpeded progress
toward graduation.6
The tables below (and in the Appendix) show the relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and
several of these outcomes for students who started medical school in 2006, 2007, and 2008. They show the
rates at which medical students who entered with different combinations of UGPAs and MCAT total scores:
(1) graduated in four years; (2) graduated in five years; (3) withdrew or were dismissed for academic reasons;
(4) passed the USMLE Step 1, Step 2 CK, and Step 2 CS exams on their first attempt; and (5) eventually passed
the Step exams.
Table 3 shows the relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and four-year graduation rates. Overall,
86% of the medical students graduated in four years, an impressive result given the 62% average graduation
rate from U.S. graduate and professional schools generally (Bradburn, Nevill, Cataldi, & Perry, 2006). The
percentages in the cells of Table 3 show that higher UGPAs and MCAT total scores generally are associated
with higher four-year graduation rates.
Table 3. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Who Graduated from Medical School in Four Years, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

3.60-3.79

--

3.40-3.59

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.80-2.99

--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

18-20
67%
63/94
67%
90/134
73%
85/117
60%
61/101
41%
25/61
36%
9/25
42%
8/19
--

2.20-2.39

--

--

2.00-2.19

--

1.47-1.99

--

All

33%
7/21

15-17
58%
7/12
54%
7/13
43%
6/14
44%
8/18
42%
8/19
--

46%
42/92

21-23
80%
278/347
76%
316/414
69%
244/352
66%
201/304
63%
110/174
62%
64/104
49%
21/43
50%
5/10
--

24-26
87%
1,171/1,347
82%
1,094/1,334
79%
834/1,062
76%
449/593
72%
229/320
63%
109/172
60%
34/57
60%
12/20
--

27-29
90%
3,133/3,478
88%
3,036/3,449
86%
2,053/2,398
84%
1,007/1,193
84%
426/509
79%
150/191
80%
59/74
70%
14/20
--

30-32
91%
4,110/4,539
89%
3,820/4,310
88%
2,666/3,029
88%
1,204/1,373
85%
455/537
84%
115/137
78%
38/49
84%
21/25
--

33-35
89%
3,054/3,433
88%
2,383/2,717
89%
1,464/1,650
86%
657/763
89%
247/279
80%
67/84
80%
20/25
100%
10/10

--

--

--

--

--

-62%
343/556

71%
1,240/1,755

80%
3,935/4,910

36-38
86%
1,622/1,881
86%
982/1,144
85%
510/599
88%
242/276
88%
90/102
82%
18/22
--

39-45
85%
564/660
89%
236/266
87%
118/136
86%
43/50
81%
13/16
100%
12/12

--

-87%
9,881/11,317

89%
88%
12,434/14,006 7,904/8,963

-86%
3,470/4,032

86%
986/1,140

Notes:
1. Blue shading = graduation rates of 90-100%; Green shading = graduation rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = graduation rates of 70-79%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. Students enrolled in joint programs (e.g., MD-PhD), participating in special research/non-research studies, or deceased are not included in this table.
4. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

All
89%
14,004/15,794
87%
11,965/13,786
85%
7,982/9,363
83%
3,873/4,675
79%
1,604/2,019
72%
547/755
67%
185/277
74%
68/92
39%
7/18
--

86%
40,242/46,792

The median corrected validity coefficient for predicting first-year medical school grades from UGPAs and MCAT total scores was .75, .71 for predicting second-year grades
(Koenig & Wiley, 1997), and .54 for predicting third-year grades (Julian, 2005). The median corrected validity coefficient was .64 for predicting USMLE Step 1 scores from
UGPAs and MCAT total scores, .54 for Step 2 Clinical Knowledge scores, and .55 for Step 3 scores (Kroopnick, Dunleavy, Dowd, Searcy, & Zhao, 2013).

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Table 4 shows the relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and five-year graduation rates. These data
show that 94% of the students who entered medical school between 2006 and 2008 graduated in five years.
The pattern of results shows that most students graduated from medical school in five years, including those
who entered with modest MCAT scores. The percentages in the cells of Table 4 show that higher UGPAs and
MCAT total scores generally are associated with higher five-year graduation rates.

Table 4. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Who Graduated from Medical School in Five Years, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

3.60-3.79

--

3.40-3.59

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.80-2.99

--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

18-20
83%
78/94
81%
108/134
83%
97/117
82%
83/101
61%
37/61
60%
15/25
53%
10/19
--

2.20-2.39

--

--

2.00-2.19

--

1.47-1.99

--

All

52%
11/21

15-17
92%
11/12
54%
7/13
57%
8/14
72%
13/18
68%
13/19
--

67%
62/92

21-23
90%
312/347
88%
366/414
83%
293/352
81%
247/304
80%
140/174
79%
82/104
74%
32/43
80%
8/10
--

24-26
94%
1,264/1,347
93%
1,240/1,334
90%
953/1,062
88%
522/593
87%
277/320
84%
144/172
74%
42/57
75%
15/20
--

27-29
96%
3,324/3,478
95%
3,268/3,449
94%
2,264/2,398
93%
1,114/1,193
93%
472/509
88%
169/191
84%
62/74
85%
17/20
--

30-32
97%
4,396/4,539
96%
4,135/4,310
96%
2,897/3,029
95%
1,307/1,373
94%
503/537
94%
129/137
86%
42/49
92%
23/25
--

33-35
97%
3,320/3,433
96%
2,610/2,717
96%
1,583/1,650
96%
729/763
95%
264/279
89%
75/84
96%
24/25
100%
10/10

--

--

--

--

--

-78%
431/556

85%
1,483/1,755

91%
4,462/4,910

36-38
96%
1,812/1,881
95%
1,092/1,144
96%
574/599
95%
263/276
93%
95/102
95%
21/22
--

39-45
95%
626/660
95%
254/266
95%
129/136
94%
47/50
88%
14/16
100%
12/12

--

-94%
96%
96%
10,694/11,317 13,437/14,006 8,617/8,963

-96%
3,863/4,032

95%
1,082/1,140

Notes:
1. Blue shading = graduation rates of 90-100%; Green shading = graduation rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = graduation rates of 70-79%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. Students enrolled in joint programs (e.g., MD-PhD), participating in special research/non-research studies, or deceased are not included in this table.
4. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

10

All
96%
15,146/15,794
95%
13,081/13,786
94%
8,802/9,363
93%
4,327/4,675
90%
1,816/2,019
86%
652/755
79%
218/277
87%
80/92
56%
10/18
--

94%
44,142/46,792

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Table 5 shows the relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and withdrawal or dismissal from medical
school for academic reasons. According to these data, only 1.4 percent of entrants withdrew or were dismissed
from medical school for academic reasons. These results show a negative association between UGPAs, MCAT
total scores, and this outcome. In general, lower UGPAs and MCAT total scores are associated with higher
levels of academic withdrawal or dismissal from medical school for academic reasons.

Table 5. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Who Withdrew or Were Dismissed from Medical School for Academic Reasons, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate
GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

3.60-3.79

--

3.40-3.59

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.80-2.99

--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

18-20
2.1%
2/96
5.9%
8/136
4.1%
5/122
4.6%
5/108
11.3%
7/62
10.3%
3/29
10.0%
2/20
--

2.20-2.39

--

--

2.00-2.19

--

1.47-1.99

--

All

13.6%
3/22

15-17
8.3%
1/12
13.3%
2/15
7.1%
1/14
5.6%
1/18
10.5%
2/19
--

13.8%
13/94

21-23
2.8%
10/362
2.1%
9/427
5.7%
21/369
7.6%
24/316
7.7%
14/181
4.6%
5/108
6.5%
3/46
0%
0/11
--

24-26
1.7%
24/1,392
2.3%
32/1,370
4.1%
45/1,100
4.7%
29/623
4.4%
15/338
8.3%
15/180
11.7%
7/60
20.0%
4/20
--

27-29
0.8%
28/3,656
1.9%
68/3,603
1.5%
38/2,524
1.5%
19/1,255
2.6%
14/537
4.0%
8/200
9.2%
7/76
4.8%
1/21
--

30-32
0.6%
30/4,957
0.9%
41/4,642
1.0%
34/3,283
1.4%
21/1,472
1.6%
9/566
0%
0/148
1.8%
1/55
3.7%
1/27
--

33-35
0.4%
15/4,014
0.8%
25/3,121
0.9%
17/1,889
1.6%
13/835
0.3%
1/306
1.1%
1/92
3.7%
1/27
0%
0/11

--

--

--

--

--

-5.9%
34/578

4.8%
88/1,828

3.4%
171/5,088

36-38
0.2%
5/2,354
0.4%
5/1,412
0.8%
6/728
0.3%
1/310
1.7%
2/117
0%
0/25
--

39-45
0.1%
1/901
0.3%
1/354
1.2%
2/169
1.8%
1/57
5.9%
1/17
0%
0/12

--

-1.5%
184/11,877

0.9%
138/15,157

All
0.7%
116/17,747
1.3%
192/15,085
1.7%
169/10,204
2.3%
115/4,998
3.0%
65/2,146
4.5%
36/802
8.4%
25/296
6.1%
6/98
26.3%
5/19
---

0.7%
73/10,297

0.4%
21/4,958

0.4%
6/1,510

1.4%
731/51,409

Notes:
1. Blue shading = withdrawal/dismissal rates of 0-10%; Green shading = withdrawal/dismissal rates of 10.1-20%; Orange shading = withdrawal/dismissal rates of 20.1-30%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

Tables that show the same types of relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and USMLE Step exam
pass rates appear in Appendix A. The data show positive relationships between UGPAs, MCAT total scores, and
first-time and eventual pass rates on the Step exams. Refer to Tables A1, A3, and A5 for grids summarizing the
relationships with first-time pass rates on USMLE Step 1, Step 2 CK, and Step 2 CS exams. Tables A2, A4, and
A6 summarize these relationships for students eventual pass rates for these exams.
Taken together, the examination of graduation rates, withdrawal or dismissal from medical school for academic
reasons, and USMLE Step exam pass rates suggests that applicants with a wide range of UGPAs and MCAT
scores can succeed in medical school. These data suggest the facility with which admissions committee
members predict their students eventual success by combining information about candidates qualifications
from applications, transcripts, letters, and interviews with information about the curricula, support services,
and graduation requirements of their medical schools. These results also are an important testament to the
academic and other support that faculty provide to their students to help them succeed in medical school.

11

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

References
American Educational Research Association, American Psychological Association, & National Council on Measurement in
Education. (1999). Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing (2nd ed.). Washington, DC: American Educational
Research Association.
The Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA), codified at 42 U.S.C. 12101 et seq.
Bradburn, E. M., Nevill, S., Cataldi, E. F., & Perry, K. (2006). Where are they now? A description of 199293 bachelors degree
recipients 10 years later (NCES 2007-159). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education
Statistics.
Davis, D., Dorsey, J. K., Franks, R. D., Sackett, P. R., Searcy, C. A., & Zhao, X. (2013). Do racial and ethnic group differences in
performance on the MCAT exam reflect test bias? Academic Medicine, 88(5), 593602.
Donnon, T., Paolucci, E. O., & Violato, C. (2007). The predictive validity of the MCAT for medical school performance and
medical board licensing examinations: A meta-analysis of the published research. Academic Medicine, 82, 100106.
Dunleavy, D. M., Kroopnick, M. H., Dowd, K. W., Searcy, C. A., & Zhao, X. (2013). The predictive validity of the MCAT exam in
relation to academic performance through medical school: A national cohort study of 2001-2004 matriculants. Academic
Medicine, 88(5), 666671.
Dunleavy, D. M., Oppler, S. H., & Mitchell, K. (2008). [2008 Study of Medical School Admissions Policies and Practices].
Unpublished raw data.
Julian, E. R. (2005). Validity of the medical college admission test for predicting medical school performance. Academic Medicine,
80, 910917.
Koenig, J. A. & Wiley, A. (1997). Medical school admission testing. In R. F. Dillon (Ed.), Handbook on testing (pp. 274295).
Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.
Kroopnick, M. H., Dunleavy, D. M., Dowd, K. W., Searcy, C. A., & Zhao, X. (2013). A comprehensive school-level analysis of the
predictive validity of the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). Paper presented at the annual conference of the American
Educational Research Association, San Francisco.
Kuncel, N. R. & Hezlett, S. A. (2007). Standardized tests predict graduate students success. Science, 315, 10801081.
Roth, P. L., Bevier, C. A., Bobko, P., Switzer, F. S., III, & Tyler, P. (2001). Ethnic group differences in cognitive ability in employment
and educational settings: A meta-analysis. Personnel Psychology, 54, 297330.
Sackett, P. R. & Shen, W. (2010). Subgroup differences on cognitive tests in contexts other than personnel selection. In J. L. Outtz
(Ed.), Adverse impact: Implications for organizational staffing and high stakes selection (pp. 323346). New York, NY: Taylor
& Francis Group.
Zhao, X., Dunleavy, D. M., Oppler, S. H., & Kroopnick, M. (2011). Alternative scoring approaches for retest scores: Implications
for differential prediction. Poster presented at the annual conference of the Society for Industrial & Organizational Psychology,
Chicago.
Zhao, X., Oppler, S. H., Dunleavy, D. M., & Kroopnick, M. (2010). Validity of four approaches of using repeaters MCAT scores in
medical school admissions to predict USMLE Step 1 total scores. Academic Medicine, 85(10 Suppl), S64-S70.
Zheng, A. Y., Lawhorn, J. K., Lumley, T., & Freeman, S. (2008). Application of Blooms taxonomy debunks the MCAT Myth.
Science, 319, 414415.

12

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Appendix. Relationships between UGPAs, MCAT scores, and USMLE

outcomes
Table A1. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Passing the Step 1 Exam on the First Attempt, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

3.60-3.79

--

3.40-3.59

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.80-2.99

--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

2.20-2.39

--

21-23
83%
285/342
80%
333/416
77%
265/343
75%
219/291
68%
115/169
62%
61/98
61%
25/41
55%
6/11
--

2.00-2.19

--

--

1.47-1.99

--

All

40%
8/20

15-17
64%
7/11
50%
7/14
36%
4/11
53%
9/17
44%
8/18
--

51%
43/84

18-20
79%
73/92
68%
85/125
66%
77/116
58%
60/104
49%
26/53
50%
13/26
35%
6/17
--

24-26
90%
1,226/1,355
89%
1,172/1,318
83%
868/1,048
81%
480/591
80%
253/316
78%
135/172
73%
41/56
72%
13/18
--

27-29
96%
3,440/3,581
93%
3,287/3,518
92%
2,270/2,463
90%
1,106/1,226
86%
447/520
85%
161/189
86%
60/70
95%
19/20
--

30-32
98%
4,769/4,868
96%
4,384/4,560
96%
3,093/3,222
94%
1,358/1,446
92%
506/551
93%
136/146
92%
49/53
96%
24/25
--

33-35
99%
3,895/3,953
97%
2,992/3,069
98%
1,813/1,853
97%
794/821
96%
290/301
92%
83/90
100%
26/26
100%
11/11

--

--

--

--

-64%
341/536

76%
1,312/1,718

86%
4,191/4,879

36-38
99%
2,313/2,326
99%
1,376/1,389
98%
700/715
98%
301/308
97%
112/116
96%
24/25
--

39-45
100%
887/890
99%
349/352
100%
169/169
94%
51/54
93%
14/15
92%
11/12

--

--

All
97%
16,897/17,421
95%
13,985/14,764
93%
9,263/9,946
90%
4,379/4,862
86%
1,772/2,062
82%
628/764
79%
215/273
85%
79/93
50%
8/16
---

93%
96%
98%
10,793/11,591 14,324/14,878 9,906/10,126

99%
4,837/4,890

Notes:
1. Blue shading = passing rates of 90-100%; Green shading = passing rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = passing rates of 70-79%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

99%
1,481/1,492

94%
47,236/50,214

Table A2. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Eventually Passing the Step 1 Exam, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

3.60-3.79

--

3.40-3.59

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.80-2.99

--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

2.20-2.39

--

21-23
97%
333/342
98%
407/416
97%
334/343
97%
282/291
95%
161/169
96%
94/98
100%
41/41
82%
9/11
--

2.00-2.19

--

--

1.47-1.99

--

All

80%
16/20

15-17
100%
11/11
93%
13/14
100%
11/11
100%
17/17
94%
17/18
--

95%
80/84

18-20
97%
89/92
97%
121/125
97%
113/116
94%
98/104
87%
46/53
81%
21/26
82%
14/17
--

24-26
99%
1,338/1,355
99%
1,306/1,318
98%
1,022/1,048
98%
579/591
98%
310/316
97%
166/172
91%
51/56
100%
18/18
--

27-29
99%
3,562/3,581
99%
3,488/3,518
99%
2,444/2,463
99%
1,210/1,226
99%
514/520
98%
185/189
96%
67/70
100%
20/20
--

30-32
100%
4,857/4,868
99%
4,532/4,560
99%
3,200/3,222
99%
1,437/1,446
99%
546/551
100%
146/146
96%
51/53
100%
25/25
--

33-35
100%
3,942/3,953
100%
3,058/3,069
100%
1,849/1,853
99%
814/821
100%
301/301
100%
90/90
100%
26/26
100%
11/11

--

--

--

--

-94%
505/536

97%
1,667/1,718

98%
4,795/4,879

36-38
100%
2,320/2,326
100%
1,385/1,389
100%
712/715
100%
307/308
99%
115/116
100%
25/25
---

-99%
99%
100%
100%
11,494/11,591 14,800/14,878 10,093/10,126 4,875/4,890

Notes:
1. Blue shading = passing rates of 90-100%; Green shading = passing rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = passing rates of 70-79%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

13

39-45
100%
889/890
100%
351/352
100%
169/169
100%
54/54
100%
15/15
100%
12/12

All
100%
17,344/17,421
99%
14,663/14,764
99%
9,859/9,946
99%
4,801/4,862
98%
2,028/2,062
97%
744/764
95%
259/273
98%
91/93
88%
14/16
---

100%
1,490/1,492

99%
49,815/50,214

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Table A3. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Passing the Step 2 CK Exam on the First Attempt, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

2.80-2.99

15-17
100%
11/11
90%
9/10
90%
9/10
93%
14/15
87%
13/15
--

3.60-3.79

--

3.40-3.59

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

2.20-2.39

--

18-20
90%
76/84
93%
106/114
84%
91/108
89%
81/91
83%
35/42
88%
15/17
82%
9/11
--

2.00-2.19

--

24-26
98%
1,289/1,311
97%
1,238/1,282
95%
951/998
94%
513/547
93%
276/296
91%
141/155
95%
42/44
94%
15/16
--

27-29
99%
3,432/3,481
98%
3,328/3,398
98%
2,327/2,376
97%
1,134/1,168
93%
464/498
93%
169/181
94%
62/66
95%
18/19
--

30-32
99%
4,618/4,647
99%
4,292/4,350
99%
3,043/3,083
98%
1,366/1,393
96%
510/530
95%
132/139
96%
44/46
100%
23/23
--

33-35
100%
3,619/3,623
99%
2,827/2,852
99%
1,723/1,741
98%
763/775
96%
275/285
95%
78/82
92%
23/25
100%
11/11

--

--

--

--

--

--

1.47-1.99
All

21-23
97%
315/324
95%
366/384
95%
304/320
89%
242/272
90%
135/150
89%
77/87
87%
33/38
--

85%
11/13

90%
65/72

-88%
415/470

93%
1,485/1,589

96%
4,469/4,654

36-38
100%
2,037/2,043
99%
1,248/1,255
99%
638/645
99%
278/282
98%
104/106
96%
24/25
--

39-45
100%
722/722
100%
289/289
99%
147/148
98%
50/51
100%
14/14
100%
12/12

--

--

All
99%
16,122/16,249
98%
13,705/13,936
98%
9,236/9,433
97%
4,443/4,596
94%
1,827/1,938
93%
652/703
92%
219/237
97%
83/86
85%
11/13
---

98%
99%
99%
10,937/11,191 14,034/14,217 9,320/9,396

99%
4,337/4,365

Notes:
1. Blue shading = passing rates of 90-100%; Green shading = passing rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = passing rates of 70-79%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

100%
1,234/1,236

98%
46,307/47,203

Table A4. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Eventually Passing the Step 2 CK Exam, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

2.80-2.99

15-17
100%
11/11
90%
9/10
100%
10/10
93%
14/15
100%
15/15
--

3.60-3.79

--

3.40-3.59

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

2.20-2.39

--

18-20
98%
82/84
98%
112/114
94%
102/108
99%
90/91
100%
42/42
100%
17/17
91%
10/11
--

2.00-2.19

--

24-26
100%
1,307/1,311
100%
1,277/1,282
98%
983/998
99%
540/547
99%
294/296
98%
152/155
100%
44/44
94%
15/16
--

27-29
100%
3,472/3,481
100%
3,391/3,398
100%
2,371/2,376
100%
1,165/1,168
99%
495/498
98%
178/181
100%
66/66
95%
18/19
--

30-32
100%
4,641/4,647
100%
4,344/4,350
100%
3,070/3,083
100%
1,388/1,393
99%
525/530
99%
138/139
100%
46/46
100%
23/23
--

33-35
100%
3,622/3,623
100%
2,848/2,852
100%
1,738/1,741
99%
770/775
100%
285/285
100%
82/82
100%
25/25
100%
11/11

--

--

--

--

--

--

1.47-1.99
All

21-23
99%
322/324
99%
379/384
99%
318/320
99%
268/272
99%
149/150
97%
84/87
100%
38/38
--

92%
12/13

96%
69/72

-97%
458/470

99%
1,572/1,589

99%
4,617/4,654

36-38
100%
2,040/2,043
100%
1,254/1,255
100%
643/645
100%
281/282
99%
105/106
96%
24/25
---

-100%
100%
100%
11,160/11,191 14,181/14,217 9,383/9,396

All
100%
16,222/16,249
100%
13,905/13,936
100%
9,387/9,433
99%
4,569/4,596
99%
1,925/1,938
98%
692/703
99%
235/237
98%
84/86
100%
13/13
---

100%
4,355/4,365

Notes:
1. Blue shading = passing rates of 90-100%; Green shading = passing rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = passing rates of 70-79%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

14

39-45
100%
722/722
100%
289/289
100%
148/148
100%
51/51
100%
14/14
100%
12/12

100%
1,236/1,236

100%
47,043/47,203

Using MCAT Data in Medical Student Selection

Table A5. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Passing the Step 2 CS Exam on the First Attempt, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

3.60-3.79

--

15-17
90%
9/10
--

3.40-3.59

--

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.80-2.99

77%
10/13
80%
12/15
--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

2.20-2.39

--

18-20
94%
72/77
93%
100/108
91%
94/103
90%
75/83
87%
34/39
87%
13/15
73%
8/11
--

2.00-2.19

--

24-26
98%
1,279/1,303
98%
1,242/1,261
96%
940/975
94%
503/533
98%
284/291
92%
139/151
93%
38/41
87%
13/15
--

27-29
99%
3,389/3,437
98%
3,280/3,361
98%
2,290/2,342
97%
1,111/1,149
95%
461/486
95%
168/176
98%
64/65
100%
18/18
--

30-32
99%
4,545/4,595
98%
4,223/4,311
97%
2,958/3,036
98%
1,337/1,364
96%
504/525
90%
119/132
96%
44/46
96%
22/23
--

33-35
99%
3,551/3,595
99%
2,788/2,830
98%
1,681/1,718
96%
737/771
99%
277/281
94%
73/78
100%
24/24
100%
10/10

--

--

--

--

--

--

1.47-1.99
All

21-23
99%
316/320
95%
353/371
93%
287/307
94%
239/254
90%
133/148
91%
75/82
86%
31/36
--

100%
12/12

82%
55/67

-90%
397/439

94%
1,444/1,530

97%
4,442/4,575

36-38
99%
2,010/2,024
99%
1,226/1,236
99%
623/632
97%
272/280
95%
98/103
96%
23/24
--

39-45
99%
715/721
99%
284/286
97%
143/147
100%
51/51
92%
12/13
100%
12/12

--

--

All
99%
15,889/16,085
98%
13,506/13,774
97%
9,027/9,273
96%
4,337/4,500
95%
1,817/1,903
93%
625/675
93%
215/230
93%
76/82
75%
9/12
---

98%
98%
98%
10,785/11,038 13,757/14,038 9,143/9,309

99%
4,260/4,308

Notes:
1. Blue shading = passing rates of 90-100%; Green shading = passing rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = passing rates of 70-79%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

99%
1,217/1,230

98%
45,512/46,546

Table A6. Percentage of 2006-2008 Students Eventually Passing the Step 2 CS Exam, by MCAT Total Score and Undergraduate GPA Range
MCAT Total
GPA Total
3.80-4.00

5-14
--

3.60-3.79

--

15-17
90%
9/10
--

3.40-3.59

--

--

3.20-3.39

--

3.00-3.19

--

2.80-2.99

85%
11/13
87%
13/15
--

2.60-2.79

--

2.40-2.59

--

2.20-2.39

--

18-20
99%
76/77
99%
107/108
98%
101/103
96%
80/83
97%
38/39
93%
14/15
82%
9/11
--

2.00-2.19

--

24-26
99%
1,292/1,303
99%
1,254/1,261
99%
961/975
99%
526/533
99%
288/291
97%
147/151
98%
40/41
100%
15/15
--

27-29
99%
3,419/3,437
99%
3,329/3,361
99%
2,330/2,342
99%
1,137/1,149
98%
477/486
97%
171/176
98%
64/65
100%
18/18
--

30-32
99%
4,572/4,595
99%
4,283/4,311
99%
3,006/3,036
99%
1,357/1,364
99%
519/525
96%
127/132
100%
46/46
100%
23/23
--

33-35
100%
3,579/3,595
99%
2,815/2,830
99%
1,708/1,718
98%
758/771
100%
280/281
100%
78/78
100%
24/24
100%
10/10

--

--

--

--

--

--

1.47-1.99
All

21-23
99%
318/320
97%
360/371
96%
296/307
97%
247/254
96%
142/148
98%
80/82
94%
34/36
--

100%
12/12

91%
61/67

-97%
428/439

97%
1,488/1,530

99%
4,528/4,575

36-38
100%
2,017/2,024
100%
1,232/1,236
99%
626/632
99%
278/280
97%
100/103
96%
23/24
---

-99%
99%
99%
10,949/11,038 13,939/14,038 9,254/9,309

All
99%
16,003/16,085
99%
13,676/13,774
99%
9,184/9,273
99%
4,447/4,500
98%
1,872/1,903
97%
657/675
97%
224/230
99%
81/82
92%
11/12
---

99%
4,284/4,308

Notes:
1. Blue shading = passing rates of 90-100%; Green shading = passing rates of 80-89%; Orange shading = passing rates of 70-79%.
2. Dashes = cells with fewer than ten observations; blank cells = cells with zero observations.
3. For students who took the MCAT exam multiple times, the most recent MCAT total score at the time of matriculation was used in this analysis.

15

39-45
100%
718/721
100%
286/286
98%
144/147
100%
51/51
100%
13/13
100%
12/12

100%
1,224/1,230

99%
46,167/46,546