The

Malthusian
Trap and the
impact of the
Black Death

Index
Index .............................................................................................................................................. 1
Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 2
Malthusian Model and Malthusian Trap ....................................................................................... 2
Malthusian Model ..................................................................................................................... 2
Malthusian Trap ........................................................................................................................ 3
Black Death.................................................................................................................................... 4
The Impact of the Black Death on Preindustrial Societies ........................................................ 5
Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 6
Bibliography .................................................................................................................................. 7

The Malthusian Trap and the impact of

the Black Death on pre-industrial
societies.
Introduction
In this piece of work, it is going to be carried out the explanation of the theory of the Malthusian
Trap as well as the most relevant impacts of the Black Death or Bubonic Plague on the preindustrial societies.
Firstly, this piece of work will be focused on the explanation of the Malthusian Model and the
Malthusian Trap, secondly, the impact of the Black Death on the pre-industrial world will be
analyzed. Finally, to conclude, a relationship between the plague and the economic and
demographic development of pre-industrial world will be established.

Malthusian Model and Malthusian Trap

Malthusian Model
The lines below will explain the Malthusian Trap, however, it is necessary to point out what the
characteristics of the Malthusian Model are first.
Malthusian Model was firstly proposed by Thomas Robert Malthus as a systematic theory of
population. This model establishes a world where anything that raises the death rate, would
increase material living standards. As well as, anything that reduces the death rate, would
reduce material living standards.
Therefore, it is necessary to understand that for Malthusian economies, real income is
determined by birth rates and death rates. So any technological advance (improvements in
sanitations, better hygiene) can rise life expectancy, but only reducing material living
standards.
As we can see in the graph below, an improvement in technology, in the short-run, can increase
real incomes. Nevertheless, this increment reduces the death rate, fact that makes that births
exceeds deaths leading population to grow. This growth ends only when income return to an
equilibrium point, which is called Subsistence Point.

(Clark. G. (2007), s.f.)

This is, in terms of pre-industrial world, the only effect of a technological advance is to increase
population. Therefore, the effect of an increase of population leads to maintain the same living
standards or, in any case, to reduce them.

Malthusian Trap
Having explained the Malthusian model, it can be understood that the Malthusian Trap ensures
that gains in income per person through technological advances are inevitably lost through
subsequent population growth. Thus, the Malthusian Trap is the name by which the
sustainability problem, which is shown in the lines above, is known. (Education, s.f.)
This principle of population can be expressed as a simple mathematical formula, the IPAT
equation.

I= P x A x T

Environmental Impact
Population
Affluence (Consumption per person)
Technology (impact per unit of consumption)

Basically, this equation explains that if PAT factors grow, Environmental impact would rise until
the maximum capacity of the system. Later, in that point of maximum capacity, if one PAT factor
3

increases then another must fall, since the maximum capacity of environmental impact cannot
be exceeded. Thus this equation explains why Malthusian Model establishes that any
technological improvement or any increase in land productivity have significant positive effects
on population density but insignificant effects on the standard of living, since the maximum
capacity of the Environmental Impact can be exceeded.
With this theory Thomas Malthus pointed out there was no escape from the Malthusian Trap.
Nevertheless, in is necessary to take into account that he formulated his theory a world with
few technological advances, where for example, agriculture was done by hand or animal power.
So it can be said that he was right about the past, but not about the future, because soon,
technological improvements and structural change from agricultural production that the
Industrial Revolution and the Agricultural Revolution brought soared the Population and the
Affluence per person in some countries, breaking the Malthusian Trap and increasing the
Standard of Living of these industrial societies. (www.thwink.org, s.f.)

Black Death
The Black Death was one of the most devastating pandemics in human history peaking in Europe
from 1346 to 1353. The Black Death, also known as Bubonic plague, was caused by the bacterium
Yersinia pestis that circulated among wild rodents, concretely in flea-infested rodents. The
plague contaminated humans when rodents that lived near human communities were infected.
The most common transmitter rodent was the black rat, also known as house rat or ship rat,
since it was conducive to live close to humans. (Benedictow, 2005)
Between the most common symptoms of the pandemic are the appearance of buboes -in the
groin, the neck and armpits, which ooze pus and blood when they are opened -, high fever,
convulsions and pain in the limbs, leading to exhaustion, heart failure and internal haemorrhage.
New researches show that the pandemic began in 1346, in Caspian Sea, southern Russia.
Therefore, the plague was spread in Europe from the east and advanced progressively through
Europe during the years 1346-53 as we can see in the picture below. (Wikipedia, Black Death, s.f.)

(Benedictow, 2005)

The Impact of the Black Death on Preindustrial Societies

It can be said that the Black Death was one of the most traumatic catastrophe in Europe history,
since it would have profound effects both at economy and at demography, as well as in the
European culture.
In demographic terms, it is estimated that around 3060 per cent of Europe's entire population
died during the peaking years of the pandemic (1346-53).Moreover, it took 150 and in some
areas more than 250 years for Europe's population to recover. (Benedictow, 2005) (Wikipedia, Medieval
Demography, s.f.)

As it has been said before, Europe art and literature were drastically affected. European culture
turned very morbid. Pessimism became the main topic, and art turned dark with representations
of death.
European post-plague economy differed dramatically from the existent economy before the
Black Death. From the standpoint of Malthusian view, during the years before the plague Europe
was experiencing a great overpopulation. Therefore, taking into account the Malthusian
function explained in the lines above, the drastically reduction of factor P (Population) permitted
to develop the other ones, this is, affluence and technology.
It can be said that the economy experienced a profound and great inflation. Due to the difficulty
of producing and procuring goods to trade, prices of both local goods and those imported from
abroad skyrocketed. Because of the dramatic reduction of population, workmanship was
extremely scarce, so even peasants experienced the increase in real wages. This is, the reduction
of between 30% to 60% of the population led to an increase in wages and made land and food
more available for peasants because of less competition for resources. It has to be pointed out
that, for instance, in 1357, a third of property in London was unused due to a severe outbreak
in 134849. (Wikipedia, Consequences of the Black Death, s.f.) (Decameron, s.f.)
Moreover, it is necessary to say that due to these new conditions, peasants could concentrate
on the most fertile land and produce more agricultural goods than they themselves needed, fact
that produced a surplus. This surplus of foodstuffs allowed some workers to stop farming and
turn to the production of manufactures, laying the foundations for the development of protoindustry (defined as manufacturing using handicraft methods). (Decameron, s.f.)
(http://eml.berkeley.edu, s.f.)

Nevertheless, this new redistribution of wealth did not happen right away since property owners
were unwilling to tolerate the changes in prices and wages, so they tried to freeze them. This
fact caused several popular uprisings, such as the Peasants' Revolt of 13811.Therefore, peasants
did not really start to gain benefits until the later 15th century. By 1500, the total population of
Europe was substantially below that of 200 years earlier, but all classes overall had a higher
standard of living.
In terms of trade and manufacturing, after the plague, the relative ease of success during the
high Middle Ages gave way to greater competition, which meant better business practices and

The Peasant's Revolt was an uprising across many parts of England in 1381. One of the most important
causes of this uprising was the socio-economic tensions generated by the Black Death as well as the high
taxes resulting from the Hundred Years' War. (Wikipedia, Peasant's Revolt, s.f.)

more efficient concerns. This greater sensitivity to the market and the cutting of costs ultimately
awarded the European consumer with a wider range of goods at better prices.

Conclusion
To summarize, the demographic changes caused by the Black Death introduced in Europe the
possibility of a new economic growth. Moreover, this catastrophe, unlike other ones, destroyed
only people but not the property that population had. Therefore, this fact permitted survivors
to exploit all the Europes resources that before the plague belonged to a bigger amount of
people. Besides, these survivors could also benefit from the technological and commercial skills
developed during the course of Middle Ages.
From a critical point of view and as it has been said before, Black Death was one of the most
catastrophic events in Mankind history and its devastating effects on population were
inevitable, but it ultimately diminished economic impediments and opened new opportunity for
survivors and next generations. (David Routt, s.f.)

Bibliography
Benedictow, O. . (2005). History Today, .
Clark. G. (2007), A. F. (n.d.). A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World (Chapter
2. The Logic of the Malthusian Economy),. Retrieved from rinceton: Princeton
University Press.
David Routt, T. E. (n.d.). http://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-economic-impact-of-the-black-death/.
Decameron. (n.d.). Social and Economic Effects of the Plague. Retrieved from
http://www.brown.edu/Departments/Italian_Studies/dweb/plague/effects/social.php.
Education, A. C. (n.d.).
http://cgge.aag.org/PopulationandNaturalResources1e/CF_PopNatRes_Jan10/CF_Pop
NatRes_Jan108.html.
http://eml.berkeley.edu. (n.d.). Retrieved from
http://eml.berkeley.edu/~webfac/eichengreen/e210a_sp11/210A_1-1812_%20Malthusian%20Econ.pdf.
Wikipedia. (n.d.). Black Death. Retrieved from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death.
Wikipedia. (n.d.). Consequences of the Black Death. Retrieved from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Death#Cultural_impact.
Wikipedia. (n.d.). Medieval Demography. Retrieved from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_demography.
Wikipedia. (n.d.). Peasant's Revolt. Retrieved from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peasants%27_Revolt.
www.thwink.org. (n.d.). Retrieved from
http://www.thwink.org/sustain/glossary/MalthusianTrap.htm.