Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Quarterly
Commentary
April 2015
MORE VALUE
reviews:
GLOBAL INSIGHTS 2015
LESS VALUE
20x
16x
12x
8x
4x
0x
Russell
2000
United
States
France
MSCI Australia
World
MSCI
EAFE
Japan
United China
Kingdom
Brazil
MSCI
MSCI Russia
Emerging Frontier
Markets Markets
Source: FactSet, Forward P/E is Price / Next 12 Months. Time-weighted annual estimates via FactSet market aggregates as of December 31, 2014.
PAGE 2
As of 3/31/2015. Sources: Morgan Stanley, MSCI, S&P and other national sources. CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E) attempts to show the relationship between price
and multi-year average company earnings. This valuation measure seeks to smooth out earnings uctuations caused by business cycles while also reecting the
long-term effects of ination.
3
Source: Brandes Investment Partners, MSCI via FactSet as of 3/31/2015. 20-year average: 3.03%. Europe represented by the MSCI Europe Index. The declaration
and payment of shareholder dividends are solely at the discretion of the issuer and are subject to change at any time.
4
Source: SG Cross Asset Research/Equity Quant, MSCI as of 3/31/2014. European companies represented by the MSCI Europe Index.
5
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Global Exposure Guide 2014, May 2014
6
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014
7
Source: Deutsche Bank, January 2015. There is no assurance that a forecast will be accurate. Because of the many variables involved, an investor should not rely
on forecasts without realizing their limitations.
2
PAGE 3
Exhibit 2: Europe Among Its Cheapest Ever vs. the United States
MSCI Europe Index CAPE Divided by U.S. stocks CAPE, March 31, 1985 March 31, 2015
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Mar-15
Mar-13
Mar-11
Mar-09
Mar-07
Mar-05
Mar-03
Mar-01
Mar-99
Mar-97
Mar-95
Mar-93
Mar-91
Mar-89
Mar-87
Mar-85
0.5
Source: Morgan Stanley, MSCI, S&P, various national sources; CAPE (cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio) dened as ination adjusted price to 10Y
average EPS from continuing operations. CAPE attempts to show the relationship between price and multi-year average company earnings in order
to better estimate long-term earnings power. This valuation measure seeks to smooth out earnings uctuations caused by business cycles while also
reecting the long-term effects of ination. In this chart, a reading above 1.0 indicates that prices for Europe stocks are more expensive than U.S. stocks
in relation to their underlying long-term company earnings. A reading below 1.0 indicates U.S. stocks are more expensive on a long-term price/earnings
basis. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please note that all indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. U.S.
market represented by S&P 500 composite. The CAPE is based on prices from the Standard & Poors Composite Stock Price Index, now known in its current
form as the S&P 500 Index.
In the European oil & gas sector, there continues to be a number of attractive investment opportunitieseven
after accounting for the recent fall in oil prices, Mr. Germain adds. As shown in Exhibit 3, the European
oil sector is trading at a historically wide earnings valuation discount to the overall European market. Our
holdings are concentrated in the large integrated oil & gas businesses that operate globally across many parts
of the hydrocarbon value chain. Along with their compelling valuations, the companies hand-selected by
Brandes feature a geographically diverse resource base, solid balance sheets and good cost positions.
However, the current excess supply is clearly weighing on oil prices and to the extent that this imbalance
continues, these investments will likely underperform the market, Mr. Germain notes.
The European oil
sector is trading at
a historically wide
earnings valuation
discount to the
overall European
market.
>1.0 = premium
1.3x
1.2x
1.1x
1.0x
0.9x
0.8x
0.7x
<1.0 = discount
Feb-15
Feb-14
Feb-13
Feb-12
Feb-11
Feb-10
Feb-09
Feb-08
Feb-07
Feb-06
Feb-05
Feb-04
Feb-03
Feb-02
Feb-01
Feb-00
Feb-99
Feb-98
Feb-97
Feb-96
Feb-95
Feb-94
Feb-93
Feb-92
Feb-91
0.5x
Feb-90
0.6x
Source: Worldscope via FactSet. Market dened as the top 25% of companies in developed Europe based on market cap, after exclusion of securities with free
oat market cap <US$100 million. As of 2/28/2015, this generally included all companies with market caps in excess of US$500 million. Past performance is
not a guarantee of future results. *Valuations measure based on earnings yield, average earnings over trailing four years divided by price.
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PAGE 4
The differing regional opportunity sets can also be observed from each countrys forward price-to-earnings
(P/E) ratios, as shown in Exhibit 1 on page 1, with Russia and Brazil showing much more attractive valuation
multiples compared to most other countries.
In times of macroeconomic dislocation when many investors are running for the exits, we often uncover
pockets of value by focusing on companies with attractive valuations, comments Louis Lau, CFA, Director,
Investments Group, Brandes Investment Partners.
Investors using an index approach to emerging-market investing will likely miss the opportunity offered by
individual companies that remain fundamentally sound against the macroeconomic and geopolitical upheaval,
Mr. Lau points out. While valuations are attractive in emerging markets, it is important to discriminate at the
company level.
For example, Brazil, which has been affected by alleged corruption at a state-run oil company, fiscal austerity,
political gridlock, drought and a depreciating currency, has presented value opportunities in industries
such as food & staples retailing, apparel and construction services. Companies in these industries were
previously not inexpensive enough for Brandes to get involved. In addition, we have invested in utilities, banks,
telecommunications and packaged food companies with attractive valuations.
Exhibit 4: Emerging-Market Valuations Near 2008 Crisis Levels
MSCI EM Index P/B, March 31, 1995 March 31, 2015
3.5x
Investors using an
index approach to
emerging-market
investing will
likely miss the
opportunity offered
by individual
companies.
Equity performance across emerging markets has diverged considerably, as shown in Exhibit 5 (on page
5). Over the last few quarters, we have found incremental value opportunities in Latin America, Russia and
Eastern Europe, as these regions have already factored in a more challenging backdrop. In contrast, the Asian
markets have not corrected as much nor offered as many new value ideas.
MSCI EM
Performance
1999: +66%
3.0x
MSCI EM
Performance
2009: +79%
MSCI EM
Performance
2003: +56%
2.5x
2.0x
1.5x
1.0x
Asian Crisis
1997-1998
Global Financial
Crisis 2008
Current
(3/31/2015)
0.5x
Mar-95
Mar-00
Mar-05
Mar-10
Mar-15
Source: MSCI. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Please note that all indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
PAGE 5
In Russia, many market participants seem to currently view investing there as a binary decision, which means
they are either in or out of the market with no regard for individual company merits or valuations. Political
instability, economic sanctions and a sharp drop in oil prices have contributed to the difficult investing
environment in Russia. However, although the magnitude of the recent decline in oil prices and the ensuing
weakening of the ruble were unexpected, we continue to invest in a hand-selected group of companies that are
relatively resilient and offer an attractive risk/reward tradeoff for the patient, long-term investor.
For example, we continue to hold one of Russias largest oil producersa vertically integrated company
with operations at all levels of gas and oil exploration, production and refining. Market sentiment toward
the company declined significantly in the latter half of 2014 due to geopolitical concerns around Russia,
particularly the situation in Ukraine, as well as the global oil-price decline.
In our view, the company is actually a fairly defensive business in a declining oil-price environment. The
company has a healthy oil reserve life of 20 to 27 years (as of December 31, 2014), higher than many oil
companies around the world. Its historical profitability per barrel of oil has also been quite stable and less
volatile than the oil market price, due partly to Russias progressive export tariff on oil. Furthermore, much of
the companys revenue is generated in U.S. dollars, while a portion of its costs are paid in rubles. As a result,
the weaker ruble could potentially have a positive net impact on the company.
We have found
incremental value
opportunities in
Latin America,
Russia and
Eastern Europe.
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
80
Selectivity Is Key in the United States and Japan Following Broad-Based Gains
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PAGE 6
While U.S. banks are better capitalized than theyve been historically, valuations are low in part due to depressed
earnings. We believe earnings are depressed for two primary reasons:
1. Abnormally low interest-rate environment, which makes it dicult for banks to earn adequate profits
on their substantial deposit bases, and
2. Heightened level of compliance and litigation expense that should ease with time.
Exhibit 6: U.S. Market No Longer Inexpensive
Cyclically Adjusted P/E (CAPE), January 1880 March 31, 2015
50
45
40
27.2x
at 3/31/15
35
We are also
seeing opportunity
arise from a
refreshing increase
in valuation
dispersion.
30
25
20
Median
16.0x
15
10
5
0
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2015
Source: Prof. Robert Shiller online data: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. CAPE attempts
to show the relationship between price and multi-year average company earnings in order to better estimate earnings power. This valuation measure
seeks to smooth out earnings uctuations caused by business cycles while also reecting the long-term effects of ination. U.S. market represented by
S&P 500 composite. The CAPE is based on prices from the Standard & Poors Composite Stock Price Index, now known in its current form as the S&P 500
Index. Professor Shiller uses monthly dividend and earnings data computed from the S&P four-quarter totals for the quarter since 1926; Professor Shiller
uses dividend and earnings data before 1926 from Cowles and Associates.
Not only could earnings significantly increase if these factors normalize, but the return of shareholder capital
through share buybacks and increased dividends could contribute to higher valuation levels as well, Mr.
Fredberg explains.
The recently completed Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) process supports our underlying
thesis that capital levels among the largest U.S. banks are building steadily and are making the return of capital
to shareholders a reality, Mr. Fredberg adds. The CCAR, a U.S. Federal Reserve program now in its fifth year,
evaluates the capital planning processes and capital adequacy of the largest U.S.-based bank holding companies,
including the firms planned capital actions such as dividend payments and share buybacks and issuances.
Strong capital levels act as a cushion to absorb losses and help better ensure that banking organizations have
the ability to lend to households and businesses even in times of stress, according to the Federal Reserve.8
We are also seeing opportunity arise from a refreshing increase in valuation dispersion, with intra-sector
differences expanding. For example, while investors have been enamored with the biotech portion of the
healthcare sector over the last two years, potential value opportunities exist in less exciting areas such as
healthcare services and medical products. Similarly, while the cloud and social networking areas of technology
are all the rage, a large number of boring technology stocks still are selling at what we view are discounted
valuations. These one-time market favorites typically have had high returns on capital, healthy growth
rates, high customer switching costs, and have returned a significant portion of their ample free cash flow
to shareholders.
Some of these companies, with their large international presence, have seen their stock prices come under
pressure recently with the financial statement translation of weaker foreign currencies back into the U.S. dollar,
but their strong balance sheets have allowed them opportunistically to repurchase shares at attractive discounts
to our estimates of fair value.
PAGE 7
Finally, we look forward to more opportunities arising as we expect the near record-high U.S. profit margins
to return to more normal levels. We dont profess to know exactly what will drive this normalization to occur,
whether its the stronger U.S. dollar, the eventual increase in real wages as unemployment continues to decline,
or simply competitive pricing dynamics within a number of industries, Mr. Fredberg points out. However,
what we do know is that our continued commitment to a bottom-up company analysis will enable us to
be readyamid changing market conditionsto take advantage of further potential mispricings when they
do arrive.
Our continued
commitment to a
bottom-up company
analysis will enable
us to be ready to
take advantage of
further potential
mispricings.
There have been a number of notable initiatives that appear to be paving a path for improved corporate
governance, which we believe is key for Japanese companies in their efforts to raise returns on equity to global
standards. These initiatives include:
1. Introduction of the Japanese Stewardship Codewhich calls on shareholders to disclose how they vote
at annual general meetings and engage more actively with company management, with the ultimate goal of
promoting sustainable growth in the corporate sector; 127 institutions have signed the code.11
2. Introduction and adoption of the JPX-Nikkei Index 400this new index, which started in January 2014,
includes 400 companies that meet global investment standards such as efficient use of capital and investorfocused management.12
3. Implementation of the Corporate Governance Code comply-or-explain provision13this requires
companies subject to the code to comply with its principles or explain why they cannot do so.
Over the past two decades, ROEs in Japan have been hampered by low operating margins brought on by a
high cost structure and deflation, in addition to the buildup of excess capital following the banking crisis
in the late 90s. The aforementioned initiatives, plus the improvement in the long-term outlook of the Japanese
economy, appear to be positively impacting many Japanese companies as they are now beginning to have
a stronger focus on shareholder returns. Dividends and share buybacks have been on the rise, as shown in
Exhibit 7 (on page 8), in an effort to reduce excess capital. Additionally, operating profitability has been
improving as cost reduction plans are starting to gain traction. We believe these are significant developments
and ROEs over the long term will continue to improve. Exhibit 8 (on page 8) shows operating margins and
ROE have been improving for companies in the Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX).
T he Wall Street Journal blogs, For Abenomics, Third Arrow is the Hardestand Most Needed http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/02/25/for-abenomicsthird-arrow-is-the-hardest/tab/print/
10
The Wall Street Journal, Japan to Lower Corporate Tax Rates, December 30, 2014 http://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-to-lower-corporate-tax-rate-1419935308
11
Reuters, Almost 130 institutional investors adopt Japan shareholder code, June 10, 2014 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/10/japan-stocksstewardshipcode-idUSL4N0OR2CC20140610;
12
Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange, http://www.tse.or.jp/english/market/topix/jpx_nikkei.html
13
Tokyo Stock Exchange, Japans Corporate Governance Code, page 5, March 5, 2015 http://www.tse.or.jp/english/listing/cg/cg-code/b7gje60000024vhl-att/
b7gje60000029gfh.pdf
9
BRANDES.COM
PAGE 8
Witnessing such progress in Japan is a good reminder that it may not take a lot in the way of good news for
fundamentals to come to the forefront.
Buyback
8
Yen (trillions)
6
4
2
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
*Estimated: Total dividend amount is estimated with dividend yield and market cap. Equity issuance shown as negative. Past performance is not
a guarantee of future results. The declaration and payment of shareholder dividends are solely at the discretion of the issuer and are subject to
change at any time.
Sources: Nikkei Astra, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Data based on companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
16%
14%
Operating Margin
ROE
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-13
Mar-12
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-09
Mar-08
Mar-07
Mar-06
Mar-05
Mar-04
Mar-03
Mar-02
Mar-01
Mar-00
Mar-99
Mar-98
Mar-96
0%
Mar-97
2%
Mar-95
Operating
protability has
been improving as
cost reduction
plans are starting
to gain traction.
Dividend
PAGE 9
Two years ago in this quarterly commentary, we cited some of the challenges Japan has faced, including its
sovereign debt and demographic issues, as well as the prolonged bearish sentiment on the equity market and
the economy at that time. We noted then that despite the uncertainties, there were still meaningful fiscal,
monetary and policy options available to the Japanese government to combat serious macroeconomic issues.
Not surprising to us, the Japanese equity market rebounded following the governments move to implement
such policies starting in late 2012.
Over the years, the market has taken a negative view of Japan for many macroeconomic reasons, as the firms
founder and Chairman Charles Brandes points out in his recently published book, Brandes on Value: The
Independent Investor. Notwithstanding the economic uncertainties and market view on Japan in the last
few decades, we never let these factors overshadow the unique opportunities that many Japanese companies
presented to the rational, long-term value investor, he stated.
Conclusion: Throughout changing investment climates, markets across the globe may offer
pockets of value for investors who know where and how to look.
As value investors, we see investment conditions that are conducive to value equity investingespecially in
Europe and emerging markets.
As the short-term performance cycles of global markets have historically changed leadership, it is important to
remember that over the long term, we believe valuations remain key drivers of returns.14
Look to Brandes to
pursue value in all
types of investment
conditions.
Look to Brandes to pursue value in all types of investment conditions. Our global analysts scan the globe for
companies with the potential to deliver market-beating returns. We believe this is the best way we can help
clients pursue their long-term financial goals.
This phenomenon is thoroughly examined in a Brandes Institute paper, Value vs. Glamour: A Long-Term Worldwide Perspective.
Using data from 1980 to 2014, the study showed that over the long term, the value premium was evident across valuation metrics, regions and market capitalizations.
http://www.brandes.com/docs/default-source/brandes-institute/value-vs-glamour-worldwide-perspective.pdf
14
BRANDES.COM
PAGE 10
Brandes Investment
Partners, L.P.
11988 El Camino Real
Suite 600
P.O. Box 919048
San Diego, CA
92191-9048
858.755.0239