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ClimateChangeandGlobalWarming
Introduction
byAnupShah ThisPageLastUpdatedSunday,February01,2015
Thispage:http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climatechangeandglobal
warmingintroduction.
Toprintallinformatione.g.expandedsidenotes,showsalternativelinks,usethe
printversion:
http://www.globalissues.org/print/article/233
Thiswebpagehasthefollowingsubsections:
1. WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?
1. WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?
2. WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?
3. TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?
4. Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?
5. DoesntrecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?
6. Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?
7. Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans
8. 2014warmestyearsincerecordsbegan
2. WhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?
1. Rapidchangesinglobaltemperature
2. Smallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpact
3. ExtremeWeatherPatterns
1. Superstorms
2. Extremeweathereventsontheincrease
4. EcosystemImpacts
5. RisingSeaLevels
6. Increasingoceanacidification
7. IncreaseinPestsandDisease
8. FailingAgriculturalOutputIncreaseinWorldHunger
9. Agricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffected
10. Womenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpacts
3. Greenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhumanactivity
1. DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorld
2. TheUnitedStatesistheWorldsLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPerCapita
3. Thepreviously15memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitter
4. StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussia
5. CanadapullsoutofKyoto
6. Richnationemissionshavebeenrising
7. RichNationsHave"Outsourced"TheirCarbonEmissions
8. DevelopingCountriesAffectedMost
9. Greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise
4. SkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehumaninduced
1. BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientists
5. ManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscovered
6. Warminghappeningmorequicklythanpredicted
WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?
Globalwarmingandclimatechangerefertoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.Naturalevents
andhumanactivitiesarebelievedtobecontributingtoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.Thisis
causedprimarilybyincreasesingreenhousegasessuchasCarbonDioxide(CO2 ).
Awarmingplanetthusleadstoachangeinclimatewhichcanaffectweatherinvariousways,asdiscussed
furtherbelow.
WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?
AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thereare7
indicatorsthatwouldbeexpectedtoincreaseinawarmingworld(andtheyare),and3indicatorswouldbe
expectedtodecrease(andtheyare):
Tenindicatorsforawarmingworld,PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingto
Scientistsin48Countries,NOAA,July28,2010
WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?
Thetermgreenhouseisusedinconjunctionwiththephenomenonknownasthegreenhouseeffect.
Energyfromthesundrivestheearthsweatherandclimate,andheatstheearthssurface
Inturn,theearthradiatesenergybackintospace
Someatmosphericgases(watervapor,carbondioxide,andothergases)trapsomeoftheoutgoing
energy,retainingheatsomewhatliketheglasspanelsofagreenhouse
Thesegasesarethereforeknownasgreenhousegases
ThegreenhouseeffectistheriseintemperatureonEarthascertaingasesintheatmospheretrap
energy.
Imagesource:GreenhouseEffect,Wikipedia
(Linkincludesdetailedexplanationoftheaboveimage).Note,imageaboveexpressesenergyexchangesin
wattspersquaremeter(W/m2)
Sixmaingreenhousegasesarecarbondioxide(CO2 ),methane(CH4)(whichis20timesaspotenta
greenhousegasascarbondioxide)andnitrousoxide(N2 O),plusthreefluorinatedindustrialgases:
hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs)andsulphurhexafluoride(SF6).Watervaporisalso
consideredagreenhousegas.
TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?
Manyofthesegreenhousegasesareactuallylifeenabling,forwithoutthem,heatwouldescapebackinto
spaceandtheEarthsaveragetemperaturewouldbealotcolder.
However,ifthegreenhouseeffectbecomesstronger,thenmoreheatgetstrappedthanneeded,andthe
Earthmightbecomelesshabitableforhumans,plantsandanimals.
Carbondioxide,thoughnotthemostpotentofgreenhousegases,isthemostsignificantone.Human
activityhascausedanimbalanceinthenaturalcycleofthegreenhouseeffectandrelatedprocesses.
NASAsEarthObservatoryisworthquotingtheeffecthumanactivityishavingonthenaturalcarboncycle,
forexample:
InadditiontothenaturalfluxesofcarbonthroughtheEarthsystem,anthropogenic
(human)activities,particularlyfossilfuelburninganddeforestation,arealsoreleasing
carbondioxideintotheatmosphere.
WhenweminecoalandextractoilfromtheEarthscrust,andthenburnthesefossilfuels
fortransportation,heating,cooking,electricity,andmanufacturing,weareeffectively
movingcarbonmorerapidlyintotheatmospherethanisbeingremovednaturallythrough
thesedimentationofcarbon,ultimatelycausingatmosphericcarbondioxide
concentrationstoincrease.
Also,byclearingforeststosupportagriculture,wearetransferringcarbonfromliving
biomassintotheatmosphere(drywoodisabout50percentcarbon).
Theresultisthathumansareaddingeverincreasingamountsofextracarbondioxideinto
theatmosphere.Becauseofthis,atmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationsarehigher
todaythantheyhavebeenoverthelasthalfmillionyearsorlonger.
TheCarbonCycleTheHumanRole,EarthObservatory,NASA
Anotherwayoflookingatthisiswithasimpleanalogy:considersaltandhumanhealth:
Asmallamountofsaltisessentialforhumanlife
Slightlymoresaltinourdietoftenmakesfoodtastier
Toomuchsaltcanbeharmfultoourhealth.
Inasimilarway,greenhousegasesareessentialforourplanettheplanetmaybeabletodealwithslightly
increasedlevelsofsuchgases,buttoomuchwillaffectthehealthofthewholeplanet.
Imagesource:NASA.
(Note,valuesshownrepresentCarbonGigatonsbeingabsorbedandreleased)
Theotherdifferencebetweenthenaturalcarboncycleandhumaninducedclimatechangeisthatthelatter
israpid.Thismeansthatecosystemshavelesschanceofadaptingtothechangesthatwillresultandsothe
effectsfeltwillbeworseandmoredramaticitthingscontinuealongthecurrenttrajectory.
Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?
ThroughoutEarthshistorytheclimatehasvaried,sometimesconsiderably.Pastwarmingdoesnot
automaticallymeanthattodayswarmingisthereforealsonatural.Recentwarminghasbeenshowntobe
duetohumanindustrializationprocesses.
JohnCook,writingthepopularSkepticalScienceblog,summarizesthekeyindicatorsofahumanfinger
printonclimatechange:
JohnCook,10IndicatorsofaHumanFingerprintonClimateChange,SkepticalScience,
July30,2010
Thisgraph,basedonthecomparisonofatmosphericsamplescontainedinicecoresandmorerecentdirect
measurements,providesevidencethatatmosphericCO2 hasincreasedsincetheIndustrialRevolution:
(Source:NOAA)via:ClimateChange:Howdoweknow?NASA,accessedOctober27,2009
TheabovecovershundredsofthousandsofyearsandshowshowatmosphericCO2 levelshave
dramaticallyincreasedinrecentyears.Ifwezoominonjustthepast250years,weseethefollowing:
GlobalCO2emissions,17512010,CarbonDioxideInformationAnalysisCenter(CDIAC),2013,lastaccessed
February1,2015.DOI:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013
NASAsGoddardInstituteofSpaceStudies(GISS)tracksatmosphericglobaltemperatureclimatetrends.
Asenvironmentalengineer,DKellyODay,explainedonProcessingTrends.com(linknolongeravailable):
Tofacilitateassessmentsoflongtermtrends,climatologistscomparethemeanforabaseperiodwiththe
annualmean.Differencesbetweentheannualmeanandbaselinemeanarecalledanomalies.GISSusesthe
19511980periodfortheirbaselineperiod.Theyusethedifferencebetweentheannualmeanandthe
baselinemeantodeterminetheglobaltemperatureanomalyfortheyear.
ODayoriginallyproducedachartshowingglobaltemperatureanomaliesbetween1800and2006using
datafromNASA.Iupdatedthechartheprovidedtoincluderecentlyupdateddataupto2014:
Sources:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASA,accessedJanuary25,2015Globaltemperature,1800
2006,ProcessTrends.com,accessedOctober27,2009(linknolongeravailable)
Inthe18801935period,thetemperatureanomalywasconsistentlynegative.Incontrast,thesince1980
theanomalyhasbeenconsistentlypositive.The1909temperatureanomaly(0.47oC)wasthelowestyear
onrecord.Since1909,globaltemperaturehaswarmed,withthemostrecentyearsshowingthehighest
anomaliesof+0.6oCinthepast120years.
ANASAsGISSanimationalsoshowshowmostpartsoftheworldhaveexperiencedthiswarming,recently:
0:30
Video:Globaltemperatureshavewarmedsignificantlysince1880,the
beginningofwhatscientistscallthemodernrecord.Atthistime,thecoverage
providedbyweatherstationsallowedforessentiallyglobaltemperaturedata.
Asgreenhousegasemissionsfromenergyproduction,industryandvehicles
haveincreased,temperatureshaveclimbed,mostnotablysincethelate1970s.
Source:NASAFinds2014WarmestYearinModernRecord,NASAGoddard
InstituteforSpaceStudies,January16,2015
And,asSirDavidAttenboroughexplains,naturalvariabilityalonedoesnotexplainrecenttemperature
rise:
Video:SirDavidAttenborough:TheTruthAboutClimateChange,
October22,2006
Aswellasthelinksabove,seealsoSkepticalScience,which,whileexaminingtheargumentsofglobal
warmingskepticism,providesinformationoncausesofanthropogenicglobalwarming.
DoesntrecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?
Indifferentpartsoftheworld,therehavebeenvariousweathereventsthatatfirstthoughtwouldquestion
globalwarming.Forexample,someregionshaveexperiencedextremelycoldwinters(sometimesrecord
breaking),whileothershaveexperiencedheavyrain,etc.
Theconfusionthatsometimesarisesisthedifferencebetweenclimatechangeandweatherpatterns.
Weatherpatternsdescribeshorttermevents,whileclimatechangeisalongerprocessthataffectsthe
weather.Awarmingplanetisactuallyconsistentwithincreasingcold,increasingrainandotherextremes,
asanoverallwarmerplanetchangesweatherpatternseverywhereatalltimesoftheyear.
Togetanideaofhowlookingatshorttermchangesonlycanleadtoaconclusionthatglobalwarminghas
stopped,ordoesntexist,seeAldenGriffithshasglobalwarmingstopped?
(Asanaside,thosecryingfoulofglobalwarmingclaimswhengoingthroughextremelycoldweatherin
Europeforexamplein2010,laterfoundtheirsummerstobefullofheatwaves.Thepointhereisthata
specificshortperiodsuchasacoldwinterorevenahotsummerisnotproofalonethatglobal
warminghasstopped(orincreased)shorttermvariabilitycanmasklongertermtrends.)
Thismeans,forexample,increasingtemperaturescanactuallymeanmoresnowfallatleastuntilit
becomestoowarmforsignificantsnowfalltohappen.
Theadditionalconcern,asmeteorologyprofessorScottMandiaexplains,itcantakedecadesforthe
climatetemperaturestoincreaseinresponsetoincreasedgreenhousegasemissions.Soupuntilnow,
perhapsithasbeeneasierforskepticstodenyclimatechangeisoccurringorthathumansareresponsible.
Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?
AstheIPCCsfifthmajorreportdrawstoaconclusionin2013itnotesthatscientistshaveincreasedtheir
certaintyofhumaninducedwarmingto95%.Itwasextremelylikelythathumaninfluencehasbeenthe
dominantcauseoftheobservedwarmingsincethemid20thcentury,assummarized
bytheIPCC.
Astheirfifthreportstartedtocomeout,anumberofclimateskepticsandmediaoutletswerearguingthat
theslowdownshowninsurfacetemperaturesinrecentyearsprovedglobalwarminghadstoppedor
paused.Yet,thisslowdownwasinsurfacetemperaturesonlyeventhoughtheoveralltrend(usingamore
longerperiodwhichismorevalidinclimatechangeanalysis)showedanincreaseintemperatures.Two
simplegraphshelpillustratethis:
Source:ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis,IPCCWorkingGroupI
contributiontotheIPCCFifthAssessmentReport,September2013.Chapter3.[Note,
graphmodifiedtoaddthezoomedinportionhighlightingtheareaskepticsusetoclaim
climatechangehasstopped.]
ThenextgraphisananimationfromSkepticalScienceshowinghowtimeframestointerpretclimatedata
issignificant:
Source:TheEscalator,SkepticalScience,lastaccessedOctober19,2013
ForfurtherinformationontheaboveseealsoDoestheglobalwarmingpausemeanwhatyouthinkit
means?,fromSkepticalScience.
Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans
Asthisinfographicshows,mostofthewarmingisgoingintotheoceans:
Source:JohnCook,Infographiconwhereglobalwarmingisgoing,SkepticalScience.com,
January20,2011(furthernotesonthesourcedataused)
AsJohnCook,creatorofthegraphicabovesays(seeabovelink),Justasittakestimeforacupofcoffeeto
releaseheatintotheair,sotoittakestimefortheoceantoreleaseitsheatintotheatmosphere..
TheimplicationsofthisisfurtherexplainedwithInterPressServicesfreezeranalogy:Theworlds
northernfreezerisonrapiddefrostaslargevolumesofwarmwaterarepouringintotheArcticOcean,
speedingthemeltofseaice.
Indeed,asthischartalsoshows,thewarmingintheoceanshasbeenoccurringforquitesometime:
Source:JohnCook,TheEarthcontinuestobuildupheat,SkepticalScience,October
12,2011
OneofJohnBrunoscolleagues,OveHoeghGuldberg,talksabouttheimpactclimatechangewillhaveon
oceanecosystems.Asummaryofthevideoheresaysthat
Rapidlyrisinggreenhousegasconcentrationsare
drivingoceansystemstowardconditionsnotseenfor
Video:OveHoeghGuldbergNCSEtalkonclimate
OveHoegh
GuldbergNCSE
Shifts,January21,2011.
talk
changeimpactsonoceanecosystems,Climate
millionsofyears,withanassociatedriskof
fundamentalandirreversibleecological
fromJohnBruno
transformation.Changesinbiologicalfunctionintheoceancausedbyanthropogenicclimatechangegofar
PLUS
beyonddeath,extinctionsandhabitatloss:fundamentalprocessesarebeingaltered,community
assemblagesarebeingreorganizedandecologicalsurprisesarelikely.
D.SalmonsalsohasapostatSkepticalSciencethatexplainstheimpactofwarmingArcticsrelationtothe
16:47
verycoldrecentwintersfurther,usingthefollowingNASAmap:
Source:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,
accessedJanuary30,2011
AsSalmonsexplains,
theArctichasbeenheatingup,andstudiesshowthatishappeningattwotothreetimesthe
globalaverage.ThisrisingtemperatureintheArctichasservedtoreducetheregions
floatingicelayerbymorethan20%.Andasyouwouldexpect,whenthereflectiveiceand
snowlayerisstrippedaway,itleavesadarkbluesea.
Now,whatdoestheeffectofthedarkblueseabeingexposedhaveontheArcticarea?Well,
theiceandsnowlayerreflectsthemajorityofthesunsraysharmlesslybackintospace.But
thedarkblueoftheexposedseaabsorbstherays,aidingtheheatingprocess.
D.Salmons,GlobalWarmingandColdWinters,SkepticalScience,January15,2011
2014warmestyearsincerecordsbegan
NASAsGISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysisgraphshownearlier(from1800to2014)showsthat
temperatureanomaliessince1980haveallbeenpositivei.e.ithasbeenconstantlyhotterthannormal.
Asthesamedatashows,thehottestyearshaveallbeensince1998:
Rank
1=Warmest
Year
AnomalyC
AnomalyF
18802014
1
2014
0.69
1.24
2(tie)
2010
0.65
1.17
2(tie)
2005
0.65
1.17
1998
0.63
1.13
5(tie)
2013
0.62
1.12
5(tie)
2003
0.62
1.12
2002
0.61
1.10
2006
0.60
1.08
9(tie)
2009
0.59
1.06
9(tie)
2007
0.59
1.06
Source:NOAANationalClimaticDataCenter,StateoftheClimate:GlobalAnalysisforAnnual2014,
publishedonlineDecember2014,retrievedonJanuary25,2015
WhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?
Fordecades,greenhousegases,suchascarbondioxidehavebeenincreasingintheatmosphere.Butwhy
doesthatmatter?Wontwarmerweatherbenicerforeveryone?
Rapidchangesinglobaltemperature
IncreasedgreenhousegasesandthegreenhouseeffecthascontributedtoanoverallwarmingoftheEarths
climate,leadingtoaglobalwarming(eventhoughsomeregionsmayexperiencecooling,orwetter
weather,whilethetemperatureoftheplanetonaveragewouldrise).
Consideralsothefollowing:
Whileyeartoyearchangesintemperatureoftenreflectnaturalclimaticvariationssuchas
ElNio/LaNiaevents,changesinaveragetemperaturefromdecadetodecadereveal
longtermtrendssuchasglobalwarming.Eachofthelastthreedecadeshasbeenmuch
warmerthanthedecadebefore.Atthetime,the1980swasthehottestdecadeonrecord.In
the1990s,everyyearwaswarmerthantheaverageofthepreviousdecade.The2000s
werewarmerstill.
PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingtoScientistsin48Countries,NationalOceanand
AtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),July28,2010
Attheendofthe1990s,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)hadnotedthatnotonlywasthe
1990sthewarmestdecadebutatthetime,the1900swasthewarmestcenturyduringthelast1,000years.
Itistherapidpaceatwhichthetemperaturewillrisethatwillresultinmanynegativeimpactstohumans
andtheenvironmentandthiswhythereissuchaworldwideconcern.
Smallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpact
Climatescientistsadmitthatthechancesoftheworldkeepingaverageglobaltemperatureatcurrentlevels
arenotgoingtobepossible(humanityhasdonelittletoaddressthingsinthepastcoupleofdecadesthat
theseconcernshavebeenknownabout).
So,now,thereisapushtocontaintemperaturerisestoanaverage2Cincrease(asanaverage,thismeans
someregionsmaygethighertemperaturesandothers,lower).
Evenjusta2Cincreasecanhaveimpactsaroundtheworldtobiodiversity,agriculture,theoceansetc
(detailedfurtherbelow).Butintheleaduptoimportantglobalclimatetalksattheendof2009,some
delegatesareskepticalthattemperaturerisescanbecontainedtoa2Crise(orC02 levelsof350ppm).
OnOctober22,2009,theBritishGovernmentandtheUKsMetOffice(UKsNationalWeatherService)
unveiledanewmap,showingwhatwouldhappenifweallowedaverageglobaltemperaturestoincreaseto
4Cabovepreindustriallevels(thehighendoftheUNIPCCprojections):
Video:Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4C(7F),UKMetOffice,October22,
2009(Seelargermap)
Inshort,wewouldnotbeabletocopewitha4Caverageincrease.
AstheMetOfficenoted,
Thepostershowsthatafourdegreeaveragerisewillnotbespreaduniformlyacrossthe
globe.Thelandwillheatupmorequicklythanthesea,andhighlatitudes,particularlythe
Arctic,willhavelargertemperatureincreases.Theaveragelandtemperaturewillbe5.5
degreesabovepreindustriallevels.
Theimpactsonhumanactivityshownonthemapareonlyaselection.
Agriculturalyieldsareexpectedtodecreaseforallmajorcerealcropsinallmajorregionsof
production.HalfofallHimalayanglacierswillbesignificantlyreducedby2050,leadingto
23%ofthepopulationofChinabeingdeprivedofthevitaldryseasonglacialmeltwater
source.
Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4C(7F),UKMetOffice,October22,2009
SideNote
ExtremeWeatherPatterns
Mostscientistsbelievethatthewarmingoftheclimatewillleadtomoreextremeweather
patternssuchas:
Morehurricanesanddrought
Longerspellsofdryheatorintenserain(dependingonwhereyouareintheworld)
ScientistshavepointedoutthatNorthernEuropecouldbeseverelyaffectedwithcolderweatherif
climatechangecontinues,asthearcticbeginstomeltandsendfresherwatersfurthersouth.It
wouldeffectivelycutofftheGulfStreamthatbringswarmthfromtheGulfofMexico,keeping
countriessuchasBritainwarmerthanexpected
InSouthAsia,theHimalayanglacierscouldretreatcausingwaterscarcityinthelongrun.
Whilemanyenvironmentalgroupshavebeenwarningaboutextremeweatherconditionsforafewyears,
theWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationannouncedinJuly2003thatRecentscientificassessments
indicatethat,astheglobaltemperaturescontinuetowarmduetoclimatechange,thenumberandintensity
ofextremeeventsmightincrease.
TheWMOalsonotesthatNewrecordextremeeventsoccureveryyearsomewhereintheglobe,butin
recentyearsthenumberofsuchextremeshavebeenincreasing.(TheWMOlimitsthedefinitionof
extremeeventstohightemperatures,lowtemperaturesandhighrainfallamountsanddroughts.)The
U.KsIndependentnewspaperdescribedtheWMOsannouncementasunprecedentedandastonishing
becauseitcamefromarespectedUnitedNationsorganizationnotanenvironmentalgroup!
Superstorms
Mentionedfurtherabovewastheconcernthatmorehurricanescouldresult.Thelinkusedwasfromthe
environmentalorganizationWWF,writtenbackin1999.InAugust/September2004awaveofsevere
hurricanesleftmanyCaribbeanislandsandpartsofSouthEasternUnitedStatesdevastated.Inthe
Caribbeanmanyliveswerelostandtherewasimmensedamagetoentirecities.IntheU.S.manyliveswere
lostaswell,someofthemostexpensivedamageresultedfromthesuccessivehurricanes.
Initswake,scientistshavereiteratedthatsuchsuperstormsmaybeasignofthingstocome.Global
warmingmayspawnmoresuperstorms,InterPressService(IPS)notes.
InterviewingabiologicaloceanographyprofessoratHarvardUniversity,IPSnotesthattheworldsoceans
areapproaching27degreesCorwarmerduringthesummer.Thisincreasestheoddsofmajorstorms.
Whenwaterreachessuchtemperatures,moreofitevaporates,priminghurricaneorcyclone
formation.
Onceborn,ahurricaneneedsonlywarmwatertobuildandmaintainitsstrengthandintensity.
Furthermore,asemissionsofgreenhousegasescontinuetotrapmoreandmoreofthesunsenergy,that
energyhastobedissipated,resultinginstrongerstorms,moreintenseprecipitationandhigherwinds.
Thereisabundantevidenceofanunprecedentednumberofsevereweathereventsinthe
pastdecade,[professorofbiologicaloceanographyatHarvardUniversity,James]
McCarthysays.In1998,HurricaneMitchkillednearly20,000peopleinCentralAmerica,
andmorethan4,000peoplediedduringdisastrousfloodinginChina.Bangladeshsuffered
someofitsworstfloodseverthefollowingyear,asdidVenezuela.Europewashitwith
recordfloodsin2002,andthenarecordheatwavein2003.
Morerecently,BrazilwasstruckbythefirsteverrecordedhurricaneintheSouthAtlantic
lastMarch.
Weatherrecordsarebeingsetallthetimenow.Wereinaneraofunprecedentedextreme
weatherevents,McCarthysaid.
Historicalweatherpatternsarebecominglessusefulforpredictingthefutureconditions
becauseglobalwarmingischangingoceanandatmosphericconditions.
In30to50yearstime,theEarthsweathergeneratingsystemwillbeentirelydifferent,
hepredicted.
StephenLeahy,GlobalWarmingMaySpawnMoreSuperStorms,InterPressService,September20,
2004
Extremeweathereventsontheincrease
Lookingat2010asawholeyearrevealedavarietyofextremeweatherevents.Apanelofclimateand
weatherexpertsrankedthetop10globalweather/climateeventsof2010whichincludedheatwavesto
droughtstonegativearcticoscillation(aclimatepatternwherecoldArcticairslidessouthwhilewarmerair
movesnorth,bringingsnowstormsandrecordcoldtemperaturestomuchoftheNorthernHemisphere)
showthatavarietyofweathereventscanoccurasaresultofchangingclimate:
TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010
Rank
Event
When
Russo
1
European
AsianHeat
Aseveresummerspawneddrought,wildfiresandcropfailuresacross
Summer
Waves
westernRussia,wheremorethan15,000peopledied.Alltimehigh
temperaturesoccurredinmanycitiesandnationsintheregion.China
facedlocustswarmsduringJuly.
2010as
[near]
Description
Occurred
Calendar
warmeston Year
record
AccordingtoNOAA,thegloballyaveragedtemperaturefor2010will
finishamongthetwowarmest,andlikelythewarmest,onrecord.Three
monthsin2010werethewarmestonrecordforthatmonth.
RainfallrelatedtotheAsianMonsoonwasdisplacedunusually
Pakistani
LateJuly
westward,andmorethanafootofrainfellacrossalargeareaofthe
Flooding
intoAugust UpperIndusValley.SubsequentfloodingdowntheIndusRiverkilled
1,600peopleanddisplacedmillions.
ElNioto
Midto
LaNia
LateBoreal variability,sawahugeswinginmid2010.Only1973,1983and1998
Transition
Spring
Negative
5
Arctic
Oscillation
ENSO,themostprominentandfarreachingpatternsofclimate
haveseenlargerwithinyearswings.
TheAOIndex,whichisstronglycorrelatedwithwintertimecoldair
December outbreaks,reached4.27forFebruary,thelargestnegativeanomaly
February
sincerecordsbeganin1950.Majorcoldairoutbreaksoccurred
throughouttheNorthernHemisphere.
AseveredroughtparchingnorthernBrazilshrunktheRioNegro,oneof
Brazilian
Drought
Ongoing
theAmazonRiver'smostimportanttributaries,toitslowestlevelsince
recordsbeganin1902atitsconfluencewiththeAmazon.TheAmazon's
depththerefellmorethan12feetbelowitsaverage.
Historically
InactiveNE May15th
7tie Pacific
Hurricane
November
30th
TheNortheastPacificHurricaneSeasonwasoneoftheleastactiveon
record,producedthefewestnamedstormsandhurricanesofthe
modernera,andhadtheearliestcessationoftropicalactivity(Sep23)
onrecord.
onrecord.
Season
DespiteDecember2009havingthesecondlargestsnowcoverextentof
HistoricN. January
7tie Hemispheric through
Snow
June
thesatelliterecord(mid1960s),themeltseasonwasferocious,
contributingtospringfloodsintheNorthernU.S.andCanada.
Followingtheearlyandpronouncedsnowmelt,theNorthAmerican,
EurasianandHemisphericsnowcoverwasthesmallestonrecordfor
Retreat
MayandJune2010.
Minimum
9
SeaIce
Extent
The2010seaiceminimumof4.9millionsqkmwasthethirdsmalleston
Mid
record.Thelastfouryears(20072010)arethefoursmallestonrecord.
September TheNorthwestPassageandtheNorthernSeaRoutewere
simultaneouslyicefreeinSeptember,afirstinmodernhistory.
ApersistentdroughtcenteredintheYunanProvincewastoutedas
10
China
Firsthalfof perhapstheworstinthisregioninmorethan100years.Majorcrop
Drought
2010
lossesandlackofdrinkingwatercreatedsevereproblemsforlocal
residents.
Source:TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010NationalClimaticDataCenter,NOAA,
December2010
TheselistswerecompiledandvotedonduringthefirstweekofDecember.Significantevents,suchasthe
extremewinterweatherinEuropeandthefloodinginAustraliaoccurredafterthisdate.Theseevents
havebeenincludedinanadditionalsectiontitled,HonorableMention,butmayhavewarrantedtopten
placement.
EcosystemImpacts
Withglobalwarmingontheincreaseandspecieshabitatsonthedecrease,thechancesforvarious
ecosystemstoadaptnaturallyarediminishing.
Manystudieshavepointedoutthattheratesofextinctionofanimalandplantspecies,andthe
temperaturechangesaroundtheworldsincetheindustrialrevolution,havebeensignificantlydifferentto
normalexpectations.
Ananalysisofpopulationtrends,climatechange,increasingpollutionandemergingdiseasesfoundthat40
percentofdeathsintheworldcouldbeattributedtoenvironmentalfactors.
JaanSuurkula,M.D.andchairmanofPhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceand
Technology(PSRAST),paintsadirepicture,butnotesthatheisonlycitingobservationsandconclusions
fromestablishedexpertsandinstitutions.Thoseobservationsandconclusionsnotethatglobalwarming
willleadtothefollowingsituations,amongstothers:
RapidglobalheatingaccordingtoaUSNationalAcademyofSciencewarning
Dramaticincreaseingreenhousegasemissions
Ozonelossaggravatedbyglobalwarming
Ozonelosslikelytoaggravateglobalwarming
Warmingoftheoceansleadstoincreasedgreenhousegasses
Permafrostthawingwillaggravateglobalwarming
Oceanicchangesobservedthatmayaggravatethesituation
Aviciouscirclewherebyeachproblemwillexacerbateotherproblemswhichwillfeedbackintoeach
other
Massiveextinctionofspecieswillaggravatetheenvironmentalcrisis
Suddencollapseofbiologicalandecologicalsystemsmayoccur,butwillhaveaveryslowrecovery
WhileeffectivemeasurescandecreaseglobalwarmingandotherproblemstheWorldcommunity
hasrepeatedlyfailedtoestablishcooperation.
TheviciouscircleSuurkulareferstoisworthexpanding.Inhisownwords,butslightlyreformatted:
Theongoingaccumulationofgreenhousegassescausesincreasingglobalwarming.
Thiscausesamoreextensivedestructionofozoneinthepolarregionsbecauseof
accentuatedstratosphericcooling.
AnincreaseofozonedestructionincreasestheUVradiationthat,combined
withhigheroceantemperature,causesareductionofthegiganticcarbon
dioxidetrappingmechanismoftheoceanicphytoplanktonbiomass
Thisaccentuatesthewarmingprocess.
Whenthewarminghasreachedacertainlevel,itwillreleasehugeamountsof
greenhousegassestrappedinthepermafrost.
Thiswillenhancetheglobalwarming,andthepolardestructionofozone,and
soon.
Theobserveddecreaseofthethermohalinecirculation[thevariousstreamsthat
transportwarmandcoldwatersaroundtheworldandthereforehasanimportant
stabilizingeffectonworldclimate]furtheraggravatesthesituation.
Thisisaglobalselfreinforcingviciouscircleacceleratingtheglobalwarming.
JaanSuurkula,WorldwidecooperationrequiredtopreventglobalcrisisPartonetheproblem,
PhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceandTechnology,February6,2004
RisingSeaLevels
Waterexpandswhenheated,andsealevelsareexpectedtoriseduetoclimatechange.Risingsealevelswill
alsoresultasthepolarcapsbegintomelt.
Risingsealevelsisalreadyaffectingmanysmallislands.
TheWorldWatchInstitutereportsthat[t]heEarthsicecoverismeltinginmoreplacesandathigherrates
thanatanytimesincerecordkeepingbegan.(March6,2000).
Risingsealevelswillimpactmanycoastlines,andalargemassofhumanitylivesnearthecoastsorby
majorrivers.AnalysisbytheWorldWildlifeFundhasfoundthatmanycitiesareunpreparedforclimate
changeeffectssuchasrisingsealevels.
Increasingoceanacidification
OceanAcidificationconsumptionofcarbonateionsimpedecalcification.Source:Pacific
MarineEnvironmentLaboratory,NOAA
Althoughithasgainedlessmainstreammediaattention,theeffectsofincreasinggreenhouseemissions
inparticularcarbondioxideontheoceansmaywellbesignificant.
AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicand
Video:NOAAOceanAcidification
AtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thebasicchemistryof
Demonstration,NationalOceanicand
oceanacidificationiswellunderstood.
AtmosphericAdministration,February
26,2010
Thesearethe3mainconcepts:
1. MoreCO2 intheatmospheremeansmoreCO2 intheocean
2. AtmosphericCO2 isdissolvedintheocean,whichbecomesmoreacidicand
3. Theresultingchangesinthechemistryoftheoceansdisruptstheabilityofplantsandanimalsinthe
seatomakeshellsandskeletonsofcalciumcarbonate,whiledissolvingshellsalreadyformed.
Scientistshavefoundthatoceansareabletoabsorbsomeofthe
Video:Shortoverviewofocean
excessCO2 releasedbyhumanactivity.Thishashelpedkeepthe
acidification:OceanAcidification,ABC
planetcoolerthanitotherwisecouldhavebeenhadthesegases
WorldNewsWebcast,June7,2008
remainedintheatmosphere.
However,theadditionalexcessCO2 beingabsorbedisalsoresultingintheacidificationoftheoceans:
WhenCO2 reactswithwateritproducesaweakacidcalledcarbonicacid,changingtheseawaterchemistry.
AstheGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportexplains,thewaterissome30%moreacidicthanpreindustrial
times,depletingcarbonateionsthebuildingblocksformanymarineorganisms.
Inaddition,concentrationsofcarbonateionsarenowlowerthanatanytimeduringthelast800,000
years.Theimpactsonoceanbiologicaldiversityandecosystemfunctioningwilllikelybesevere,thoughthe
precisetiminganddistributionoftheseimpactsareuncertain.(Seep.58ofthereport.)
AlthoughmillionsofyearsagoCO2 levelswerehigher,todayschangeisoccurringrapidly,givingmany
marineorganismstoolittletimetoadapt.Somemarinecreaturesaregrowingthinnershellsorskeletons,
forexample.Someofthesecreaturesplayacrucialroleinthefoodchain,andinecosystembiodiversity.
Somespeciesmaybenefitfromtheextracarbondioxide,anda
Video:Clayanimationbyschool
fewyearsagoscientistsandorganizations,suchastheEuropean children:TheotherCO2problem,March
ProjectonOCeanAcidification,formedtotrytounderstand
23,2009(commissionedbyEPOCA)
andassesstheimpactsfurther.
Oneexampleofrecentfindingsisatinysandgrainsizedplanktonresponsibleforthesequestrationof25
50%ofthecarbontheoceansabsorbisaffectedbyincreasingoceanacidification.Thistinyplanktonplays
amajorroleinkeepingatmosphericcarbondioxide(CO2)concentrationsatmuchlowerlevelsthanthey
wouldbeotherwisesolargeeffectsonthemcouldbequiteserious.
OtherrelatedproblemsreportedbytheInterPressServiceincludemoreoceanicdeadzones(areaswhere
thereistoolittleoxygenintheseatosupportlife)andthedeclineofimportantcoastalplantsandforests,
suchasmangroveforeststhatplayanimportantroleincarbonabsorption.Thisisontopofthealready
decliningoceanbiodiversitythathasbeenhappeningforafewdecades,now.
Scientistsnowbelievethatoceanacidificationisunparalleledinthelast300millionyears,raisingthe
possibilitythatweareenteringanunknownterritoryofmarineecosystemchange.
IncreaseinPestsandDisease
Anincreaseinpestsanddiseaseisalsofeared.
AreportinthejournalScienceinJune2002describedthealarmingincreaseintheoutbreaksand
epidemicsofdiseasesthroughoutthelandandoceanbasedwildlifeduetoclimatechanges.
Oneoftheauthorspointsoutthat,Climatechangeisdisruptingnaturalecosystemsinawaythatis
makinglifebetterforinfectiousdiseases.
FailingAgriculturalOutputIncreaseinWorldHunger
TheGuardiansummarizesaUnitedNationswarningthat,Oneinsixcountriesintheworldfacefood
shortagesthisyearbecauseofseveredroughtsthatcouldbecomesemipermanentunderclimatechange.
Droughtanddesertificationarestartingtospreadandintensifyinsomepartsoftheworldalready.
Agricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffected
Failingagricultureinthefuturehavelongbeenpredicted.
Lookingto2100,scientistswholookedatprojectionsofglobalwarmingsimpactontheaverage
temperaturesduringthegrowingseasonfearthatrisingtemperatureswillhaveasignificantimpactupon
cropyields,mostnoticeablyinthetropicsandsubtropics.
Whilewarmweathercanoftenbegoodforsomecrops,hotterthanaveragetemperaturesfortheentire
seasonisoftennotgoodforplants.
Video:FoodandGlobalWarming,
Thiswouldaffectatleasthalftheworldspopulationthateither
ScienCentral,January7,2009
liveintheregionorrelyonfoodcomingfromthatregion.
IRIN(IntegratedRegionalInformationNetworks),partoftheUnitedNations,hasproducedaseriesof
shortvideosshowinghowsomeregionsarealreadybeingaffectedbyclimatechangeandaretryingto
adaptasaresult:
Changingcrops
Meltingglaciers
Worseningfloods
Creepingdeserts
OneexampleisfarmersinNepalfindingthatcultivatingriceisntasproductiveasbefore,andarechanging
toothercropsasaresult:
Video:SwappingCropsClimateChange,IRIN,June28,2009
IntheHimalayas,meltingglaciersmeanslesswaterforlocalvillages:
Video:MeltingGlaciersClimateChange,IRIN,June25,2009
(SouthAsiaingeneralisalsoseriouslyaffectedbyrapidlyretreatingHimalayanglacierswhichfeedthe
mightyriversthathavecreatedthevariousSouthAsiancivilizations.)
InMozambique,rainsarebecomingheavierandcausingfloods,whichaffectcropsandpeopleslivelihoods
astheyaredisplacedandhavetochangetheirwayoflifequickly.
Video:FloodingRiversinMozambique,IRIN,January21,2009
Itisfearedthatglobally,therewillbemassmigrationsinthefutureasclimatechangemakesconditions
worseinsomeregionsoftheworld,andthesechallengeswillplayitselfoutonamuchlargerscale,with
muchmorehumanmovement.(AndifWesternattitudestowardsimmigrationarenegativenow,they
couldbeevenworseinthefuture.)
InMauritania,bycontrast,thereistheproblemofincreasingdesertification,creepingevercloserto
peoplewhohavehadtochangetheirwayoflife,focusingmoreonsearchingforwater.
Video:CreepingDesertsinMauritania,IRIN,January21,2009
Insomecases,improvedagriculturaltechniquesmayhelp,suchasrainwaterharvestinganddrip
irrigation.Somealsobelievegeneticallymodifiedcropsmaybeessentialtodealwithchangingclimates.
Yet,therearemanyothercrucialissuesthataffectagriculture,suchaspoverty,politicalandeconomic
causesofworldhunger,globaltradepolicies(whichcreateunequaltradeandaffectthepoorestcountries
themost),etc.
SeeIRINsvideosonclimatechangeimpactsinAfricaandAsiaformoreshortclips.
Womenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpacts
Itisrecognizedthatpoorernationswillsuffertheworstfromclimatechange,eitherbecauseof
geographicalreasons,and/orbecausetheywillhavelessresourcestocopewithaproblem(mostlycaused
byemissionsfromrichcountriesoverthepastdecades).
Inadditiontopoorcountries,womenarelikelytosuffertheworst,astheUnitedNationsPopulationfund
explains:
Womenparticularlythoseinpoorcountrieswillbeaffecteddifferentlythanmen.They
areamongthemostvulnerabletoclimatechange,partlybecauseinmanycountriesthey
makeupthelargershareoftheagriculturalworkforceandpartlybecausetheytendtohave
accesstofewerincomeearningopportunities.Womenmanagehouseholdsandcarefor
familymembers,whichoftenlimitstheirmobilityandincreasestheirvulnerabilityto
suddenweatherrelatednaturaldisasters.Droughtanderraticrainfallforcewomento
workhardertosecurefood,waterandenergyfortheirhomes.Girlsdropoutofschoolto
helptheirmotherswiththesetasks.Thiscycleofdeprivation,povertyandinequality
underminesthesocialcapitalneededtodealeffectivelywithclimatechange.
Facingachangingworld:women,populationandclimate
,StateoftheWorldsPopulation2009,
UNFPA,November18,2009,p.4
TheUNFPAalsocapturesthisinsomevideosthataccompaniedtheir2009report.
Thefirstoneisthe
abovedescribed
effectsoccurringin
ruralareasof
Video:WomenandClimateChangein
Video:WomenandClimateChangein
Vietnam,UNFPA,November2009
Bolivia,UNFPA,November2009
Bolivia.Thesecond
oneisontheimpactonwomeninVietnam.
Greenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhuman
activity
Everyfewyears,leadingclimatescientistsattheUNsIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
havereleasedmajor,definitivereportsdetailingtheprogressinunderstandingclimatechange.Fromthe
outsettheyhaverecommendedthattherebeemissionreductions.Thisbodyiscomprisedofhundredsof
climatescientistsaroundtheworld.
AtthebeginningofJanuary2007,theIPCCsfourthmajorreportsummarizedthattheywereevenmore
certainthanbeforeofhumaninducedclimatechangebecauseofbetterscientificunderstanding:
Globalatmosphericconcentrationsofcarbondioxide,methaneandnitrousoxidehave
increasedmarkedlyasaresultofhumanactivitiessince1750andnowfarexceedpre
industrialvaluesdeterminedfromicecoresspanningmanythousandsofyears.Theglobal
increasesincarbondioxideconcentrationaredueprimarilytofossilfueluseandlanduse
change,whilethoseofmethaneandnitrousoxideareprimarilyduetoagriculture.
Theunderstandingofanthropogenicwarmingandcoolinginfluencesonclimatehas
improvedsincetheThirdAssessmentReport(TAR),leadingtoveryhighconfidencethat
thegloballyaveragedneteffectofhumanactivitiessince1750hasbeenoneofwarming.
Mostoftheobservedincreaseingloballyaveragedtemperaturessincethemid20th
centuryisverylikelyduetotheobservedincreaseinanthropogenicgreenhousegas
concentrations.
ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasisSummaryforPolicymakers
,IPCC,February
5th,2007[emphasisisoriginal]
Theirdefinitionofveryhighconfidenceandverylikelyisa90%chanceofbeingcorrect.(Their2001
reportclaimeda66%certainty.)
Thisreportwasproducedbysome600authorsfrom40countries.Over620expertreviewersandalarge
numberofgovernmentreviewersalsoparticipated,accordingtotheIPCCsmediaadvisory.
AsInterPressServicenotes,althoughtheIPCChasbecomethegoldstandardforglobalscientific
collaboration,theirreportsareinherentlyconservative:
TheIPCCoperatesundertheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation(WMO)andtheUnited
NationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)anddoesnotfundanyresearchitself.It
collects,evaluatesandsynthesisesscientificdata.AnyU.N.countrycanbeamemberofthe
IPCCandcanchallengethefindingsinitsreports.Andconsensusisrequiredforevery
wordintheSummaryforPolicyMakerssectionincludedineachreport.
Itsaninherentlyconservativeprocess,withoilrichcountrieslikeKuwaitandSaudiArabia
alwaystryingtotonedowntheconclusionsandemphasiseuncertaintiesandunknowns,
saidWeaver.
StephenLeahy,EndlessSummerNotAsNiceAsItSounds,InterPressService,January25,2007
DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorld
AstheWorldResourcesInstitutehighlightsthereisahugecontrastbetweendeveloped/industrialized
nationsandpoorerdevelopingcountriesingreenhouseemissions,aswellasthereasonsforthose
emissions.Forexample:
Intermsofhistoricalemissions,industrializedcountriesaccountforroughly80%ofthe
carbondioxidebuildupintheatmospheretodate.Since1950,theU.S.hasemitteda
cumulativetotalofroughly50.7billiontonsofcarbon,whileChina(4.6timesmorepopulous)and
India(3.5timesmorepopulous)haveemittedonly15.7and4.2billiontonsrespectively(although
theirnumberswillrise).
Annually,morethan60percentofglobalindustrialcarbondioxideemissions
originateinindustrializedcountries,whereonlyabout20percentoftheworldspopulation
resides.
Muchofthegrowthinemissionsindevelopingcountriesresultsfromtheprovisionofbasic
humanneedsforgrowingpopulations,whileemissionsinindustrializedcountriescontribute
togrowthinastandardoflivingthatisalreadyfarabovethatoftheaveragepersonworldwide.This
isexemplifiedbythelargecontrastsinpercapitacarbonsemissionsbetweenindustrializedand
developingcountries.PercapitaemissionsofcarbonintheU.S.areover20timeshigherthanIndia,
12timeshigherthanBrazilandseventimeshigherthanChina.
Atthe1997KyotoConference,industrializedcountrieswerecommittedtoanoverallreductionof
emissionsofgreenhousegasesto5.2%below1990levelsfortheperiod20082012.(The
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)saidinits1990reportthata60%reductionin
emissionswasneeded)
TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversity(TEEB)isanorganizationbackedbytheUNandvarious
Europeangovernmentsattemptingtocompile,buildandmakeacompellingeconomicscaseforthe
conservationofecosystemsandbiodiversity.
InareporttitledTheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicy
Makers2009,TEEBnoteddifferenttypesofcarbonemissionsascolorsofcarbon:
Browncarbon
Industrialemissionsofgreenhousegasesthataffecttheclimate.
Greencarbon
Carbonstoredinterrestrialecosystemse.g.plantbiomass,soils,wetlandsandpastureand
increasinglyrecognizedasakeyitemfornegotiationintheUNFCCC.
Bluecarbon
Carbonboundintheworldsoceans.Anestimated55%ofallcarboninlivingorganismsisstoredin
mangroves,marshes,seagrasses,coralreefsandmacroalgae.
Blackcarbon
Formedthroughincompletecombustionoffuelsandmaybesignificantlyreducedifcleanburning
technologiesareemployed.
Butamitigationapproachneedstoconsideralltheseformsofcarbontheynote,notjustoneortwo:
Pastmitigationeffortsconcentratedonbrowncarbon,sometimesleadingtoland
conversionforbiofuelproductionwhichinadvertentlyincreasedemissionsfromgreen
carbon.Byhaltingthelossofgreenandbluecarbon,theworldcouldmitigateasmuchas
25%oftotalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswithcobenefitsforbiodiversity,food
securityandlivelihoods(IPCC2007,Nellemannetal.2009).Thiswillonlybepossibleif
mitigationeffortsaccommodateallfourcarboncolors.
TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicyMakers2009
,p.18
TheUnitedStatesistheWorldsLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPer
Capita
Around2007,ChinasurpassedtheUSastheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegasesintermsoftotal
output.Perperson(percapita),however,Chinasemissionsaremuchsmaller.
Untilrecently,theUnitedStateswastheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegases.However,itremains
thelargestemitterwhenmeasuredintermsofemissionsperperson.
Duetoitsmuchlongerperiodofindustrialization,theUShasemittedfarmoreintotheatmospherethan
China(greenhousegasessuchasCO2 lingeronintheatmospherefordecades).
Inaddition,theUS:
Accountsforroughlyfourpercentoftheworldspopulation
Accountsforapproximately20%ofglobalemissionsandsome40%ofindustrializedcountry
emissions
Thepreviously15memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitter
Thepreviously15membernationsEuropeanUnion(E.U.),ifconsideredasawhole(foritismore
comparabletotheU.S.):
Accountsforroughly3percentoftheworldspopulation
Accountsforaround10%ofglobalemissionsand24%ofindustrializedcountriesmanmade
emissionsofthesixmaingases
Recentyearshaveseenareductioninemissionsfromthoseinitial15memberstates.However,
Itisnotnearthelevelrequired
Forthesecondconsecutiveyear,in2003,emissionsfromEUcountrieshaveactually
increasedslightly(thoughstillremainingslightlylowerthan1990levels).
StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussia
TheKyotoProtocolwastheclimatechangetreatynegotiatedin1997,settingtargetsforemissionsof
greenhousegases.
Inordertobebindingunderinternationallaw,thetreatywouldneedratificationfromthecountries
responsibleforaround55%oftheglobalgreenhousegasemissionsof1990.
TheU.S.beingtheworldslargestemitterofgreenhousegases,pulledoutin2001,leavingtreaty
ratificationdependentonRussia,responsiblefor17%ofworldemissions.Russiahastocutemissionlevels
fromtheSovietdays,andtheiremissionsinthepastdecadehasbeenfarless,soitshouldnotposeas
muchofaproblemtoreducesuchemissions.
Notingtheabove,theBBCcommentedonthisaddingthatKyotowasonlyeverafirststepnow
discussionsonthenext,morestringent,targetongreenhousegasemissionscanbegin.
CanadapullsoutofKyoto
OnDecember132011,CanadapulledoutoftheKyotoclimatetreatywhichitislegallyallowedtodo
tocondemnationdomesticallyandinternationally.Oneofthemainconcernshadbeenthecosttothetax
payer:(CAN)$14bn.
Yet,theeconomiccostsofinactionareinthetrillions:
Economicstudieshaveconsistentlyshownthatmitigation(suchasputtingapriceon
carbonemissions)isseveraltimeslesscostlythantryingtoadapttoclimatechange.
Theabovechartshowstotalcostsforactiononclimatechangeby2100tobeabout$11
trillionwhiledamageswillbeabout$8trillion.Withinaction,however,damagesby
2100willbearound$20trillion.By2200,thesenumbersshootup(over$30trillionif
actiontaken,orover$70ifnoactiontaken).Source:Theeconomicimpactsofcarbon
pricing,SkepticalScience.com,March1,2012
(SomebelieveoneofCanadasmotivationstoleaveKyotowasonitsdesiretoprotectthelucrativebut
highlypollutingexploitationoftarsands,thesecondbiggestoilreserveintheworld,asTheGuardianhad
noted.)
Richnationemissionshavebeenrising
TheUNFCCCreported(November17,2008)thatalthoughindustrializednationshavereducedemissions
between1990and2006,inrecentyears,between2000and2006,greenhousegasemissionshave
generallyincreasedby2.3%
SideNote
Thisisdespiteanoveralldecreaseof4.7%since1990.However,themorerecentperiodsuggeststherich
countryemissionreductionsarenotsustainable.Furthermore,itlooksworseconsideringalargepartof
thisdecreaseisbecauseofthecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Astransitioneconomiesstartedtorecover
around2000,emissionshavestartedtorise.
Somenationswithlargereductionsarealsoseeinglimits,forexample:
UK(15.1%reduction)benefitedbyswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgasbutthatswitchislargelyin
placenow.
Germany(18.2%reduction)hascertainlyinvestedingreenhousegasemissionreductions,buthas
beenhelpedinlargepartbecauseofreunification(EastGermany,likemuchofeasternEuropeand
formerSovietstateshadeconomicproblems,hencelessemissionsatthetime).
OtherreductionshavecomeinpartfromrelocatingmanufacturingtootherplacessuchasChina,
whichnowclaimsatleastonethirdofitsemissionsarebecauseofproductionforothers.
(SeealsothisClimateChangePerformanceIndexfromGermanWatchandClimateActionNetwork
Europe,whichattemptstorankover57nationsthataccountfor90%oftheworldstotalgreenhousegas
emissions,includingindustrializednationsandemergingeconomies.)
RichNationsHaveOutsourcedTheirCarbonEmissions
Globaltradeisanimportantfeatureofthemodernworld.Theproductionandglobaldistributionof
manufacturedproductsthusformalargeportionofglobalhumancarbonemissions.
TheKyotoProtocolassignscarbonemissionstocountriesbasedonwhereproductiontakesplacerather
thanwherethingsareconsumed.
Formanyyears,criticsoftheKyotoProtocolhavelongarguedthatthismeansrichcountries,whohave
outsourcedmuchoftheirmanufacturingtodevelopingnationshaveanaccountingtricktheycanuseto
showmoreemissionsreductionthandevelopingnations.
TheBBCnotedbackin2005thatthisoutsourcingwasalreadytakingplace,butthisideastartedway
beforetheKyotoProtocolcameintobeing.
In1991LarrySummers,thenChiefEconomistfortheWorldBank(andUSTreasurySecretary,inthe
ClintonAdministration,untilGeorgeBushandtheRepublicanpartycameintopower),hadbeenastrong
backerofstructuraladjustmentpolicies.Hewroteinaninternalmemo:
Justbetweenyouandme,shouldnttheWorldBankbeencouragingmoremigrationof
dirtyindustriestotheLDCs[lessdevelopedcountries]?Theeconomiclogicbehind
dumpingaloadoftoxicwasteinthelowestwagecountryisimpeccable,andweshouldface
uptothatUnderpopulatedcountriesinAfricaarevastlyunderpollutedtheirairquality
isprobablyvastlyinefficientlylowcomparedtoLosAngelesorMexicoCityTheconcern
overanagentthatcausesaoneinamillionchangeintheoddsofprostatecanceris
obviouslygoingtobemuchhigherinacountrywherepeoplesurvivetogetprostatecancer
thaninacountrywhereunderfivemortalityis200perthousand.
LawrenceSummers,Letthemeatpollution,TheEconomist,February8,1992.QuotedfromVandana
Shiva,StolenHarvest,(SouthEndPress,2000)p.65SeealsoRichardRobbins,GlobalProblemsandthe
CultureofCapitalism(AllynandBacon,1999),pp.233236foradetailedlookatthis.
Althoughthediscussionabovewasntaboutcarbonemissions,theintentionwasthesame:ratherthan
directlyaddresstheproblem,offshoringdirtyindustriestothedevelopingnationsandletthemdealwith
it.
Morerecently,TheGuardianprovidedausefulsummaryoftheimpactsofthisapproach:carbon
emissionscutsbydevelopedcountriessince1990havebeencanceledoutbyincreasesinimportedgoods
fromdevelopingcountriesmanytimesover.
TheyweresummarizingglobalfigurescompiledandpublishedintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademy
ofSciencesoftheUS.Andthefindingsseemedtovindicatewhatmanyenvironmentalgroupshadsaidfor
manyyearsabouttheKyotoProtocolasnotedearlier.
Inmoredetail:
Accordingtostandarddata,developedcountriescanclaimtohavereducedtheircollective
emissionsbyalmost2%between1990and2008.Butoncethecarboncostofimportshave
beenaddedtoeachcountry,andexportssubtractedthetruechangehasbeenanincrease
of7%.IfRussiaandUkrainewhichcuttheirCO2emissionsrapidlyinthe1990sdueto
economiccollapseareexcluded,theriseis12%.
MuchoftheincreaseinemissionsinthedevelopedworldisduetotheUS,whichpromised
a7%cutunderKyotobutthendidnottoratifytheprotocol.Emissionswithinitsborders
increasedby17%between1990and2008andby25%whenimportsandexportsare
factoredin.
Inthesameperiod,UKemissionsfellby28milliontonnes,butwhenimportsandexports
aretakenintoaccount,thedomesticfootprinthasrisenbymorethan100milliontonnes.
Europeachieveda6%cutinCO2emissions,butwhenoutsourcingisconsideredthatis
reducedto1%.
Thestudyshowsaverydifferentpictureforcountriesthatexportmorecarbonintensive
goodsthantheyimport.China,whosegrowthhasbeendrivenbyexportbasedindustries,
isusuallydescribedastheworld'slargestemitterofCO2,butitsfootprintdropsbyalmost
afifthwhenitsimportsandexportsaretakenintoaccount,puttingitfirmlybehindtheUS.
Chinaaloneaccountsforamassive75%ofthedevelopedworld'soffshoredemissions,
accordingtothepaper.
DuncanClark,Carboncutsbydevelopedcountriescancelledoutbyimportedgoods,TheGuardian,
April25,2011
Inaddition,asClimateNewsNetworknotes,Asiancountrieshavebeencuttingemissionsfasterthan
EuropeandtheUS.Atthesametime,therearesignsofprogressinEuropeandtheUS,too.Germanyfor
exampleisknowntobepushingforrenewablesmorethanmost.WhilerecentlytheUShasseenadropin
carbonemissionswhileseeingsomeeconomicgrowth.
DevelopingCountriesAffectedMost
Ithasbeenknownforsometimeknowthatdevelopingcountrieswillbeaffectedthemost.Reasonsvary
fromlackingresourcestocope,comparedtodevelopednations,immensepoverty,regionsthatmany
developingcountriesareinhappentobetheoneswheresevereweatherwillhitthemost,smallisland
nationsareaalreadyseeingsealevelrising,andsoon.
GermanWatchpublishedaGlobalClimateRiskIndexattheendof2011listingnationsthatwouldbe
affectedthemostfromclimatechangebasedonextremeweathersuchashurricanesandfloods.
Between1991and2010theyfoundthesewerethemostaffectednations:
1. Bangladesh
2. Myanmar
3. Honduras
4. Nicaragua
5. Haiti
6. Vietnam
7. DominicanRepublic
8. Pakistan
9. Korea,DPR
10. Philippines
MuchofAsia,aswellaswealthierareassuchastheUS,RussiaandAustraliahavealsoexperiencedspecific
incidentsofverydamagingextremeweatherthattheclimateriskindexcaptures:
Weatherrelatedlosseventsandtheirimpactsoncountriesin2010and1991to2010
ClimateRiskIndex2012,ClimateWatch,November29,2011(Clickimageforlarger
version)
Into2013,Novembersawpossiblythelargestevertyphoon,Hiayan,makelandfallandcauseincredible
devastationtopartsofthePhilippineswithatleast10,000feareddeadandmorethan9millionaffected.
GeostationarysatellitesoftheJapanMeteorologicalAgency(MTSat2)and
EUMETSAT(Meteosat7)capturedtheextraordinarysizeoftyphoonHiayanasit
approachedthePhilippines.Source.2013JMA/EUMETSAT.
HiayanstruckjustdaysbeforethestartofamajorUNconferenceonclimatechangeperhapsactingasa
wakeupcalltothenegotiatorsregardingpotentialimpactsofinaction.Whilenosingleeventcaneasilybe
attributedtoclimatechange,astheInstituteforPublicAccuracynotes,thisdevastatingtyphoon
demonstrateshowtheGlobalSouthpaysthepriceforemissionshistoricallyfromtheNorth.
Greenhousegasemissionscontinuetorise
TheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)notedinNovember2013thattheamountofgreenhouse
gasesintheatmospherereachedanewrecordhighin2012,continuinganupwardandacceleratingtrend
whichisdrivingclimatechangeandwillshapethefutureofourplanetforhundredsandthousandsof
years.
Carbondioxide,mainlyfromfossilfuelrelatedemissions,accountedfor80%ofthisincrease.The
atmosphericincreaseofCO2from2011to2012washigherthanitsaveragegrowthrateoverthepastten
years.
(TheInternationalEnergyAgency,IEA,alsoreportedthisearlierintheyear.)
Sodespiteincreasedglobalwarmingconcernsandcallsforaction,littleseemstohavebeenachieveddue
tothepoliticalchallenges,andskepticismthatabounds.
SkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehuman
induced
Foraverylongtime,somethingofcontentionand
debateintheU.S.hadbeenwhetherornotalot
ofclimatechangehasinfactbeeninducedby
humanactivities,whilemanyscientistsaround
theworld,Europeespecially,havebeenmore
convincedthatthisisthecase.
InMay2002,theBushAdministrationintheU.S.
didadmitalinkbetweenhumanactivitiesand
climatechange.However,atthesametimethe
administrationhascontinueditscontroversial
stanceofmaintainingthatitwillnotparticipatein
AnneWardPenguin
theinternationaltreatytolimitglobalwarming,theKyotoProtocol,duetoeconomicprioritiesand
concerns.(MoreabouttheKyotoProtocol,U.S.andothersactions/inactionsisdiscussedinsubsequent
pagesonthissection.)
Throughoutthe1990s,especiallyintheUnitedStates,butinothercountriesaswell,thosewhowouldtry
andraisetheimportanceofthisissue,andsuggestthatweareperhapsoverconsuming,orunsustainably
usingourresourcesetc,werefacedwithalotofcriticismandridicule.Thepreviouslinkistoanarticleby
GeorgeMonbiot,writingin1999.In2004,henotesasimilarissue,wherebymediaattemptsatbalancehas
ledtofalsebalancingwheredisproportionatetimeisgiventomorefringescientistsorthosewithless
credibilityorwithadditionalagendas,withoutnotingso,andthusgivestheimpressionthatthereismore
debateinthescientificcommunityaboutwhetherornotclimatechangeisanissuetobeconcernedabout
ornot:
Pictureasituationinwhichmostofthemedia,despitetheoverwhelmingweightofmedical
opinion,refusedtoacceptthattherewasaconnectionbetweensmokingandlungcancer.
Imaginethateverytimenewevidenceemerged,theyaskedsomeonewithnomedical
qualificationstowriteapiecedismissingtheevidenceandclaimingthattherewasno
consensusontheissue.
ImaginethattheBBC,intheinterestsofdebate,wheeledoutoneofthetinynumberof
scientistswhosaysthatsmokingandcancerarentlinked,orthatgivingupisntworththe
trouble,everytimetheissueofcancerwasraised.
Imaginethat,asaresult,nexttonothingwasdoneabouttheproblem,tothedelightofthe
tobaccoindustryandthedetrimentofmillionsofsmokers.Wewouldsurelydescribethe
newspapersandtheBBCasgrosslyirresponsible.
Nowstopimaginingit,andtakealookatwhatshappening.Theissueisnotsmoking,but
climatechange.Thescientificconsensusisjustasrobust,themisreportingjustas
widespread,theconsequencesevengraver.
Thescientificcommunityhasreachedaconsensus,the[U.K.]governmentschief
scientificadviser,ProfessorDavidKing,toldtheHouseofLordslastmonth.Idonot
believethatamongstthescientiststhereisadiscussionastowhetherglobalwarmingisdue
toanthropogeniceffects.
Itismanmadeanditisessentially[causedby]fossilfuelburning,increasedmethane
productionandsoon.SirDavidchosehiswordscarefully.Thereisadiscussionabout
whetherglobalwarmingisduetoanthropogenic(manmade)effects.Butitisnotoris
onlyseldomtakingplaceamongscientists.Itistakingplaceinthemedia,anditseemsto
consistofacompetitiontoestablishtheouterreachesofimbecility.
Butthese[skepticsandillogicalpointsagainstclimatechange]areratherlessdangerous
thantheBBC,anditsinsistenceonbalancingitscoverageofclimatechange.Itappearsto
beincapableofrunninganitemonthesubjectwithoutinvitingasceptictocommentonit.
Usuallythisiseithersomeonefromacorporatefundedthinktank(whois,ofcourse,never
introducedassuch)ortheprofessionalantienvironmentalistPhilipStott.ProfessorStott
isaretiredbiogeographer.Likealmostalltheprominentscepticshehasneverpublisheda
peerreviewedpaperonclimatechange.Buthehasmadehimselfavailabletodismiss
climatologistspeerreviewedworkastheliesofecofundamentalists.
ThiswouldntbesoobjectionableiftheBBCmadeitclearthatthesepeoplearenot
climatologists,andtheoverwhelmingmajorityofqualifiedscientificopinionisagainst
them.Instead,itleavesuswiththeimpressionthatprofessionalopinionissplitdownthe
middle.Itsabitlikecontinuallybringingpeopleontotheprogrammetosuggestthatthere
isnolinkbetweenHIVandAids.
Whatmakesallthissodangerousisthatitplaysintothehandsofcorporatelobbyists.A
recentlyleakedmemowrittenbyFrankLuntz,theUSRepublicanandcorporatestrategist,
warnedthatTheenvironmentisprobablythesingleissueonwhichRepublicansingeneral
andPresidentBushinparticulararemostvulnerableShouldthepubliccometo
believethatthescientificissuesaresettled,theirviewsaboutglobalwarmingwillchange
accordingly.Therefore,youneedtomakethelackofscientificcertaintyaprimaryissue.
GeorgeMonbiot,Bewarethefossilfools,TheGuardian,April27,2004
Monbiotscommentsabovewereover5yearsago(asofwriting),andyetsomeofthoseconcerns,
especiallyaboutfalsebalancing,carryontoday.
GarySchmidtisaleadingclimateresearcherworkingforNASA.Heisalsoacontributorto
RealClimate.org,ablogbyclimatescientiststhatattempttodispelmisinformationbyclimateskepticsand
providebackgroundinformationoftenmissinginmainstreammedia.Inoneofhisposts,helamentsatthe
continualdiversioncausedbymisinformation:
Recentlytherehasbeenmoreofasensethattheissuesbeingdiscussed(inthemediaor
online)haveabitofagroundhogdayqualitytothem.Thesamenonsense,thesamelogical
fallacies,thesameconfusionsallseemtobeendlesslyrepeated.Thesamestrawmenare
beingconstructedanddemolishedasiftheywerepartofamakeworkschemeforthe
buildingindustryattachedtothestimulusproposal.
GarySchmidt,GroundhogDay,RealClimate.org,June8,2009
However,(andperhapsbelatedly)thereisgrowingpublicacceptanceofhumaninducedclimatechangeas
reportssuchastheUSGlobalChangeResearchProgramandtheUKMetOfficeassertthingslikecurrent
climatechangehappeningnowandhumaninducedandthattheywillcausemanyproblems.
But,aswellasgrowingacceptance,thereisalsoloudervocalopposition,andtherepeatednonsenseand
logicalfallaciesthatSchmidtwasconcernedaboutseemstohavehadaneffectuponthegeneralpublic
intheUS,anywayfewerAmericansbelieveinglobalwarming(astheWashingtonPostheadlinedit.
Amongstscientists,however,thereislessskepticism:11%ofUSscientistsfromanyfielddisagreewith
humaninducedclimatechange,whileonly1%ofUSclimatologistsdisagree,accordingtothefollowing:
ClimateChange:AConsensusAmongScientists?,informationisbeautiful.net,December23,2009
Askingwhoareamongthe11%ofskepticalscientistsamongstallsciencefields,almosthalfareengineers.
Formoredetailedinformation,thefollowingsitescanbeuseful:
Scienceblogs.comprovidesasummaryofthevariousclaimsofclimatechangedeniers
grist.orgprovidesasimilarlistasScienceBlogs
RealClimate.orgisanauthoritativeblogmaintainedbysomeoftheworldsleadingclimate
scientists.Theyoftenattempttoexplainverytechnicalissuestolaypeopleandoftentrytoaddress
commonmythsandotherclaims
SkepticalScienceisanotherblogthatlooksatvariousclaimsfromskepticsandaddressesthem.
BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientists
AsrevealedtowardstheendofJanuary2006,NASAstopclimatescientistsaidNASAandtheBush
Administrationtriedtosilencehim.
WhileNASAsaidthiswasstandardproceduretoensureanorderlyflowofinformation,thescientist,Dr.
JamesHansendisagreed,sayingthatsuchprocedureshadalreadypreventedthepublicfromfullygrasping
recentfindingsaboutclimatechangethatpointtorisksahead.
Dr.Hansen,accordingtotheNewYorkTimesreportingthis,notedthatthesewerefresheffortsto
silencehimbecausehehadsaidthatsignificantemissioncutscouldbeachievedwithexistingtechnologies,
particularlyinthecaseofmotorvehicles,andthatwithoutleadershipbytheUnitedStates,climatechange
wouldeventuallyleavetheearthadifferentplanet.(Bycontrast,theBushadministrationspolicyisto
usevoluntarymeasurestoslow,butnotreverse,thegrowthofemissions.)
Furthermore,AfterthatspeechandthereleaseofdatabyDr.HansenonDec.15showingthat2005was
probablythewarmestyearinatleastacentury,officialsattheheadquartersofthespaceagencyrepeatedly
phonedpublicaffairsofficers,whorelayedthewarningtoDr.Hansenthattherewouldbedire
consequencesifsuchstatementscontinued,thoseofficersandDr.Hansensaidininterviews.
Earlier,in2004,Dr.HansenfelloutoffavorwiththeBushAdministrationforpubliclystatingbeforethe
presidentialelectionsthatgovernmentscientistswerebeingmuzzledandthatheplannedtovoteforJohn
Kerry.
TheNewYorkTimesalsonotesthatthisechoesotherrecentdisputes,wherebymanyscientistswho
routinelytookcallsfromreportersfiveyearsagocannowdosoonlyiftheinterviewisapprovedby
administrationofficialsinWashington,andthenonlyifapublicaffairsofficerispresentoronthephone.
Furthermore,Wherescientistspointsofviewonclimatepolicyalignwiththoseoftheadministration,
however,therearefewsignsofrestrictionsonextracurricularlecturesorwriting.
Andintermsofmediamanipulation,theTimesalsorevealedthatatleastoneinterview(amongstmany
others)wascanceledbecauseitwaswithNPR,whichthepublicaffairsofficialresponsiblefeltwasthe
mostliberalmediaoutletinthecountry.Thisimpliesapoliticalbias/propagandaintermsofhow
informationisreleasedtothepublic,whichshouldbeofseriousconcern.
AtthebeginningofJune,2006,theBBCPanoramadocumentaryfolloweduponthisandfoundthatmany
scientistsfelttheywerebeingcensoredandthatvariousreportshadbeensystematicallysuppressed,even
altered.Inonecase,amajorclimateassessmentreportwasdueoutamonthbeforethe2004presidential
elections,butwasdelayedbecauseithadsuchableakassessment,andtheBushadministrationdidnot
wantittobepartoftheelectionissues.Itwasreleasedshortlyaftertheelectionswereover.
PanoramaalsointerviewedapollsterwhohadadvisedtheBushAdministrationwhentheycameinto
powerin2000toquestionglobalwarming,thathumanscauseditifitexistedatall,tohireskeptical
scientists,andplaydownitsimpacts.(TheadvisorhasnowdistancedhimselfawayfromtheBush
Administrationsstancetodaybecausehefeltthesciencewasmorecertainthanitwasin2000.)
JustweeksbeforehurricaneKatrinadevastatedpartsofSouthernUnitedStates,Panoramareportedthat
AnotherscientistfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)hadresearch
whichestablishedglobalwarmingcouldincreasetheintensityofhurricanes.Hewasduetogivean
interviewabouthisworkbutclaimshewasgagged.AfterKatrina,theNOAAwebsitesaidunusual
hurricaneactivityisnotrelatedtoglobalwarming.WhenaleadingscientistwasaskedwhyNOAAcame
outwithsuchastatement,hesuggesteditwasideologicallydriven.
(TheBBCPanoramadocumentaryiscalledClimatechaos:Bushsclimateoffearandaswellasasummary,
youcanwatchtheactualdocumentaryonline.)
Despiteattemptstodiscreditglobalwarmingconcerns,theBushAdministrationhasnowconcededthat
thereisclimatechangeandthathumansarecontributingtoit,butPanoramareportsthatalotofvital
timehasbeenlost,andthatsomescientistsfearUSpolicymaybetooslowtocarryout.
AlmostayearafterthestoryaboutattemptstosilenceNASAstopclimatescientist,manymediaoutlets
havereportedonanewsurveywherehundredsofgovernmentscientistssaytheyhaveperceivedor
personallyexperiencedpressurefromtheBushadministrationtoeliminatephrasessuchasclimate
changeandglobalwarmingfromtheirreportsandpublicstatements.AUSgovernmenthearinginthe
USisalsopursuingthisfurtherastheseriousnessofclimatechangeisbecomingmoreaccepted.
TherehasbeenasimilarconcerninAustralia.Atthebeginningof2006,theAustralianBroadcasting
Company(ABC)revealedthatsomebusinesslobbygroupshaveinfluencedtheAustraliangovernmentto
preventAustraliafromreducinggreenhousegasemissions.Thislobbygroupincludedinterestsfromthe
coal,electricity,aluminum(aluminium),petroleum,mineralsandcementindustries.Thedocumentary
exposingthisrevealedpossiblecorruptionwithingovernmentduetoextremelyclosetieswithsuch
industriesandlobbygroups,andallegedsilencingofgovernmentclimatescientists.
Inwhatwouldseemtobeatwisttosuppressionofgovernmentreports,itwaswidelyclaimedthattheUS
EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyhadsuppressedareportthatwasskepticalofclimatechange.
However,itturnsoutthatwhilethereportwaswrittenbyanemployeeonEPAtime,butonhisown
initiativeandnotqualifiedtodoso,andsocouldntbepublishedbytheEPAandthereforewasnot
suppressed.Furthermore,asthepreviouslinkfinds,thereportcontainedlargepiecesofplagiarism.In
addition,thereportwasflawedasRealClimte.orgquicklyshowed.
Theheadlinesaboutthisepisodetalkedofsuppressionandwouldlikelyincreasetheviewamongstthose
stillskepticalaboutclimatechange.Correctionstothoseheadlineshavebeenfew,andlessprominent,by
comparison.
ManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscovered
Pollutionfromvariousindustries,theburningoffossilfuels,methanefromfarmanimals,forest
destruction,rotting/deadvegetationetchaveledtoanincreasednumberofgreenhousegasesinthe
atmosphere.And,asinternationaltradeinitscurrentformcontinuestoexpandwithlittleregardforthe
environment,thetransportationalone,ofgoodsisthoughttoconsiderablycontributetoglobalwarming
viaemissionsfromplanes,shipsandothertransportationvehicles.(Formoreabouttradeand
globalizationinitscurrentformandhowitaffectstheenvironment,aswellasotherconsequences,visit
thiswebsitessectiononTrade,Economy,&RelatedIssues.)
Evensulphuremittedfromshipsarethoughttocontributeafair
bittoclimatechange.(Ifyouhaveregisteredatthejournal,
Nature,thenyoucanseethereporthere.)Infact,sulphurbased
gas,originatingfromindustry,discoveredin2000isthoughtto
bethemostpotentgreenhousegasmeasuredtodate.Itiscalled
trifluoromethylsulphurpentafluoride(SF5CF3).
TheGuardianaddsthatonegiantcontainershipcanemitalmost
thesameamountofcancerandasthmacausingchemicalsas50
millioncars.
Photo:fullcargoship.Credit:YP/Flickr
Furthermore,Confidentialdatafrommaritimeindustryinsidersbasedonenginesizeandthequalityof
fueltypicallyusedbyshipsandcarsshowsthatjust15oftheworld'sbiggestshipsmaynowemitasmuch
pollutionasalltheworlds760mcars.Lowgradeshipbunkerfuel(orfueloil)hasupto2,000timesthe
sulphurcontentofdieselfuelusedinUSandEuropeanautomobiles.
(Shippingisresponsiblefor3.5%to4%ofallclimatechangeemissionstheGuardianalsonotes.)
NewScientist.comreports(December22,2003)onastudythatsuggestssootparticlesmaybeworsethan
carbondioxideincontributingtoglobalwarming.Thesootparticlesalsooriginatefromindustry,and
duringtheindustrialrevolution,wasquitecommon.Whileonthepositivesidethereislesssootthesedays
andperhapseasiertocontrolifneeded,alone,asoneofthescientistsofthestudycommented,Itdoesnot
changetheneedtoslowdownthegrowthrateofcarbondioxideandeventuallystabilizetheatmospheric
amount.
NewScientist.comandothershavealsoreported(August2005)
thattheworldslargestfrozenpeatbogismelting,andcould
unleashbillionsoftonnesofmethane,apotentgreenhousegas,
intotheatmosphere.AnareathesizeofFranceandGermany
combinedhasbeenmeltinginthelast4years.Inaddition,
WesternSiberiahaswarmedfasterthanalmostanywhereelse
ontheplanet,withanincreaseinaveragetemperaturesofsome
3Cinthelast40years.
Photo:PeatBogWesternSiberia.Credit:
ressaure/Flickr
Ascientistexplainedafearthatifthebogsdryoutastheywarm,themethanewilloxidiseandescapeinto
theairascarbondioxide.Butifthebogsremainwet,asisthecaseinwesternSiberiatoday,thenthe
methanewillbereleasedstraightintotheatmosphere.Methaneis20timesaspotentagreenhousegasas
carbondioxide.
Warminghappeningmorequicklythanpredicted
Whilethosedenyingclimatechangearereducinginnumberandthereappearstobemoreefforttotryand
tackletheproblem,climatescientistsarenowfearingthatclimatechangeishappeningfarfasterandis
havingmuchlargerimpactsthantheyeverimagined.
TheArcticplaysanincrediblyimportantroleinthebalanceoftheearthsclimate.Rapidchangestoitcan
haveknockoneffectstotherestoftheplanet.SomehavedescribedtheArcticasthecanaryinthecoal
mine,referringtohowcanarybirdsusedtobetakendeepdowncoalmines.Iftheydied,itimpliedoxygen
levelswerelowandsignaledmineworkerstogetout.
Satelliteobservationsshowthearcticseaicedecreasing,andprojectionsfortherestofthecenturypredict
evenmoreshrinkage:
Image:ThedecreaseofArcticseaice,minimumextentin1982and2007,andclimateprojections.
UNEP/GRIDArendal,2007
Intermsofbiodiversity,theprospectoficefreesummersintheArcticOceanimpliesthelossofanentire
biome,theGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportnotes(p.57).
Inaddition,Wholespeciesassemblagesareadaptedtolifeontopoforundericefromthealgaethat
growontheundersideofmultiyearice,formingupto25%oftheArcticOceansprimaryproduction,to
theinvertebrates,birds,fishandmarinemammalsfurtherupthefoodchain.Theiconicpolarbearatthe
topofthatfoodchainisthereforenottheonlyspeciesatriskeventhoughitmaygetmoremediaattention.
Note,theiceintheArcticdoesthawandrefreezeeachyear,butitisthatpatternwhichhaschangedalotin
recentyearsasshownbythisgraph:
TheextentoffloatingseaiceintheArcticOcean,asmeasuredatitsannualminimumin
September,showedasteadydeclinebetween1980and2009.Source:NationalSnowandIce
DataCenter,graphcompiledbySecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010)
GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May2010
ItisalsoimportanttonotethatlossofseaicehasimplicationsonbiodiversitybeyondtheArctic,asthe
GlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportalsosummarizes:
Brightwhiteicereflectssunlight.
Whenitisreplacedbydarkerwater,theoceanandtheairheatmuchfaster,a
feedbackthatacceleratesicemeltandheatingofsurfaceairinland,withresultant
lossoftundra.
Lessseaiceleadstochangesinseawatertemperatureandsalinity,leadingtochanges
inprimaryproductivityandspeciescompositionofplanktonandfish,aswellas
largescalechangesinoceancirculation,affectingbiodiversitywellbeyondtheArctic.
SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010),GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May,
2010,p.57
SomescientistsfearchangesarehappeningtotheArcticmuchfasterthananticipated.Thepreviouslink
mentionsthatdespitecomputerclimatemodelspredictinglossofArcticseaiceby2050to2080,some
scientistsfearitcouldbeassoonas2015.TheBBCnotessimilarconcernsbyscientists,withonequotedas
sayingtheseaiceissothinthatyouwouldhavetohaveanexceptionalsequenceofcoldwintersandcold
summersinorderforittorebuild.
AnotherBBCarticlereportsscientistsnowhaveunambiguousevidencethatthewarmingintheArcticis
accelerating.
TheArcticreflectsmuchsunlightbackintospacehelpingkeepearthtemperate.Moremeltingwillresultin
lessreflectionandevenmoreheatbeingabsorbedbytheearth.Achainreactioncouldresult,suchasthe
Greenlandicesheetmelting(whichwillactuallyincreasesealevels,whereasthemeltingofArcticicewill
notbecauseitisseaice),possiblyincreasingthemeltingofpermafrostinSiberia,whichwillreleasehuge
amountsofmethane(asnotedabove),andrapidlychangeclimatepatterns,circulationpatternsandjet
streams,farquickerthanwhatmostoftheenvironmentcouldadapttoeasily.
OldermembersoftheindigenousInuitpeopledescribehowweatherpatternshaveshiftedandchangedin
recentyears,whiletheyalsofacechallengestotheirwayoflifeintheformofincreasedcommercial
interestinthearcticregion.Thiscombinationofenvironmentalandeconomicfactorsputindigenous
populationswaysatacrossroadsasthisdocumentaryfromexplore.orgshows:
Video:Arctic:ChangeattheTopoftheWorld,Explore.org,September2007Follow
linkfortranscriptandmoreinformation
Fordecades,scientistsandenvironmentalistshavewarnedthatthewayweareusingEarthsresourcesis
notsustainable.Alternativetechnologieshavebeencalledforrepeatedly,seeminglyupondeafears(or,
cynically,uponthosewhodontwanttomakesubstantialchangesasitchallengestheirbottomlineand
takesawayfromtheircurrentprofits).
Inthepast,somecompaniesandindustrieshavepushedbackonenvironmentalprogramsinorderto
increaseprofitsortosurviveinatoughbusinessworld.
Ithasperhapstakenaboutadecadeorsoandasevereenoughglobalfinancialcrisisthathashitthe
heartofthiswayofthinkingtochangethismentality(inwhichtime,moregreenhousegaseshavebeen
emittedinefficiently).Isthattoolateorwillitbeokay?
Economiststalkofthepricesignalthatisfundamentaltocapitalismtheabilityforpricestoindicatewhen
aresourceisbecomingscarcer.Atsuchatime,capitalismandthemarketswillmobilizeautomaticallyto
addressthisbylookingforwaystobringdowncosts.Asaresult,resourcesaresupposedlyinfinite.For
example,ifenergycostsgoup,businesseswilllookforawaytominimizesuchcostsforthemselves,andit
isinsuchatimethatalternativescomeaboutand/orexistingresourceslastlongerbecausetheyareused
moreefficiently.Runningoutofresourcesshouldthereforebeaverted.
However,ithaslongbeenarguedthatpricesdonttrulyreflectthefullcostofthings,soeitherthesignalis
incorrect,orcomestoolate.Thepricesignalalsoimpliesthepoorestoftenpaytheheaviestcosts.For
example,commerciallyoverfishingaregionmaymeanfishfromthatareabecomeshardertocatchand
moreexpensive,possiblyallowingthatecosystemtimetorecover(thoughthatisnotguaranteed,either).
However,whilecommercialentitiescanexploitresourceselsewhere,localfishermenwillgooutof
businessandthepoorerwilllikelygohungry(asalsodetailedonthissitessectiononbiodiversity).This
thenhasanimpactonvariouslocalsocial,politicalandeconomicissues.
Inadditiontothat,otherrelatedmeasurements,suchasGNParethereforeflawed,andevenreward
unproductiveorinefficientbehavior(e.g.Efficientlyproducingunhealthyfoodandtheunhealthy
consumerculturetogowithitmayprofitthefoodindustryandaprivatehealthsectorthathastodeal
withit,allofwhichrequiremoreuseofresources.Moreexamplesarediscussedonthissitessectionon
consumptionandconsumerism).
Ourcontinuedinefficientpumpingofgreenhousegasesintotheenvironmentwithoutfactoringthe
enormouscostastheclimatealreadybeginstochangeisperhapsanexamplewherepricesignalsmaycome
toolate,oratatimewhenthereisalreadysignificantimpacttomanypeople.Resourcesthatcouldbe
availablemoreindefinitely,becomefinitebecauseofourinabilityorunwillingnesstochange.
Thesubsequentpagesonthissitelookatthepoliticalissuesaroundtacklingclimatechange.
Wherenext?
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byAnupShah
Created:Monday,July20,1998
LastUpdated:Sunday,February01,2015
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Copyright19982015