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More Rapid and Robust Multiple History Matching With Geological and Dynamic
Uncertainties: Heavy-Oil Case Study
J. Poncet, G. Vincent, M. Inizan, P. Henriquel and P. Jannes, Total
Abstract
The generation of reservoir simulation models that match
field production data has been and is still a long-time industry
challenge, not only for the time spent on history matching
studies but also because of the non-uniqueness of the solution.
This paper presents a new approach called "Hybrid Models" to
accelerate this process and get more realistic history match
models. Hundreds of stochastic possible geological models are
produced and tested in regard to the dynamic data. The Hybrid
model is a composite geological model, not only constrained
by the initial well data but also with selected parts of the first
realizations matching around some wells. This technique
allows a relatively quick history matching process and results
in a series of matched geological models.
This process was applied in part of a heavy oil field (14
horizontal wells in fluvial reservoirs were considered), after 3
years of production. The objective was to explain and
reproduce the high water-cut, oil rates, GOR and bottom-hole
pressures in this part of the field. A complete uncertainty
workflow was applied with sedimentological and
petrophysical uncertainties as well as fluids and dynamic
uncertainties. Results showed that static uncertainties were
essential to get a coherent match and "Hybrid Model"
technology was applied with success.
The Hybrid model technique gives several matched
geological models. All models have been carried out through
forecasting keeping the present development plan, evaluating
the potential impact of remaining static uncertainties.
Dynamic uncertainties were also considered on one geological
matched model. Several combinations of dynamic parameters
have been computed to keep a match. Corresponding models
have been transferred through forecasting. Final conclusions
were that at fixed development plan, dynamic uncertainties are
more to be considered and combined for the forecast than
static ones.
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SPE 109831
Geological Uncertainties
Part of the initial geological grid was extracted in order to
be representative of the IA and IB well clusters and the
surrounding ones.
Three types of uncertainties will be considered in the
geological workflow, starting from the sedimentology, then
petrophysics and finally fluids and the associated flushed
zone.
Two facies are defined in the model: shale and sandstone.
They correspond to lithological log types based on a cut-off on
PHIE and Vsh logs. They are defined on all the wells (vertical,
slanted and horizontal). Horizontal trends for the shale
proportions were extracted from full field maps for each
stratigraphic interval. On the studied clusters of the field, the
fluvial system evolves from a braided system to a meandering
system in 4 main stratigraphic cycles (each of them showing
an increasing shale proportion upward). The cycles are
naturally separated by floodplain argillaceous levels locally
eroded by the overlying channels. These vertical incisions are
one of the key parameters to understand the dynamic behavior
of the reservoir. Differents uncertain parameters have been
identified in this representation of the reservoir, starting from
the facies proportion to the shale heterogeneity dimensions
and stratigraphic repartition.
After a complete data analysis on the available data, the
petrophysical workflow began with the porosity simulation,
horizontal permeability derived from porosity and then
vertical to horizontal permeability ratio derived from the
horizontal permeability but with a low correlation. Note at this
stage, that the Net To Gross was set deterministic, 0 for shales
and 1 for sands.
In both IA and IB clusters, as well as in most of the fluvial
sands, an area has to be defined on top of the water-oil contact
(WOC). This region called flushed zone is considered to be
swept by water so that, only water can flow. The top position
of this zone was uncertain and has then been considered in the
study. Deterministic water saturation was calculated
depending on porosity ranges and position relative to the
flushed zone and OWC.
Considering those described uncertainties, many
geological realisations have been generated and are passed
through the dynamic simulator. The same set of dynamic
parameters will then be considered. In this first approach, the
chosen set will correspond to the most likely values. The
spread of responses due to the static uncertainties is very large.
This is particularly true for the cumulative water cut, where
the response can vary from no water to a case where the well
is producing more than 50% water-cut after only 1 year of
production. In most of the case the historical points are within
the static uncertainty range, meaning that more water is
produced in some realisations and less water is produced in
some others. It seems to be reasonable to think at this stage,
that some models can be found fitting the water-cut trend. But
the number of runs allowing a match is reduced.
Dynamical Uncertainties
Meanwhile working on the static uncertainties, various
dynamic uncertainties have been defined and characterized by
their own range of variation (i.e. minimum and maximum
values).
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SPE 109831
Conclusions
Starting with static and dynamic uncertainties in order to
help the history match process for the two studied clusters, it
rapidly appeared that the choice of static realizations
(geological model) was essential in order to get a coherent
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