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Liton Chakraborty

February 16, 2015

Winter 2015

I.

BASIC STATISTICS

x , the sample mean, is an estimate of x

1

xi

n

s x2

x2

2

x

n 1

The sample standard deviation, sx is the square root of the sample variance:

sx

n 1

2

i

nx 2

n 1

The Standard Error of the Mean or S.E.M. is an estimate of the standard deviation of x :

Standard Error of the Mean = S .E.M . s /

Sample coefficient of variation (CV):

Empirical Rule:

1

s

CV

x

100%

contains about 95% of the values in the population or the sample

contains about 99.7% of the values in the population or the sample

n

Cov (x , y) s xy

Sample correlation coefficient:

II.

(x

i 1

x)(yi y)

n 1

Cov (x , y)

sX sY

BASIC PROBABILITY

Probability of A or B:

P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A and B )

P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B )

P( A and B)

P( A B)

P( B)

P( A B) P( A)

P( A and B) P( A B) P( B)

P( A and B) P( A) P( B)

Statistics for Economists

Liton Chakraborty

February 16, 2015

Bayes' Theorem

P( Bi A)

P( A Bi ) P ( Bi )

P( A B1 ) P( B1 ) P( A B2 ) P( B2 ) ... P( A Bk ) P( Bk )

odds

P(A)

P(A)

1 - P(A) P(A)

III.

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Mean and variance of a discrete random variable:

N

E ( X ) X i P( X i )

i 1

i 1

The conditional mean is

The conditional variance is

Y

2

Y| X

Y

x

x

A.

Pr( n )

n e

n!

The variance of a Poisson is equal to the mean, so the standard deviation is the square root of the mean, .

B.

Pr( x)

n!

p x (1 p ) n x

x!n x !

The mean of a binomial is np and the variance is np(1-p). If n is large and p is small, the binomial is

approximated by a Poisson with np .

C.

Pr( x )

2

e ( x )

/ 2 2

Where and are the mean and variance as usual. A Poisson distribution can be approximated by a normal

distribution of the same mean and variance if is large. A binomial can be approximated by a normal

distribution if np and n(1-p) are both large.

The standard normal variate, z, :

z=

X -

Statistics for Economists

D.

Liton Chakraborty

February 16, 2015

The variance:

Where,

E.

(b - a) 2

12

a = minimum value of x;

ab

2

b = maximum value of x

f(t) e t

for t > 0

The cumulative distribution function (the probability that an arrival time is less than some specified time t) is:

IV.

RULES ON EXPECTATIONS:

E[X+] = E[X]+ when both and are constants.

E[XY] = E[X]E[Y] if X and Y are statistically independent.

var(X + ) = 2var(X)

var(X) = E[ X2 ] if E[X ] = 0

var(X Y) = 2var(X) + 2var(Y) - 2 cov(X,Y)

Good luck!!!

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