Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

An assessment of the renewable energy potential using a clustering

based data mining method. Case study in Romania
Gheorghe Grigoras*, Florina Scarlatache
Gheorghe Asachi Technical University of Iasi, Electrical Engineering Faculty, Power System Department, Bd. Dimitrie Mangeron, No. 21-23, 700050 Iasi,
Romania

a r t i c l e i n f o

a b s t r a c t

Article history:
Received 18 April 2014
Received in revised form
17 December 2014
Accepted 20 December 2014
Available online 14 January 2015

This paper presents an assessment of the renewable energy potential in Romania using a clustering based
data mining method. The available data on installed capacity, level voltage, type of renewable technology
and geographical location the renewable energy potential for electricity generation was mapped into
representative zones using K-Means clustering algorithm. For each zone, the potential was assessed on
voltage level and renewable energy generation technologies (wind, solar, hydro, biogas, biomass, and
cogeneration). The zones obtained can be a useful working tool for retrotting substations, upgrading of
transmission and distribution lines and also for redesigning them at different parameters with respect to
the overload. This information may enable the creation of specic programs to improve planning and
development of the electric networks in Romania.
2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords:
Data mining
Clustering
Renewable energy potential
Maps
Romania

1. Introduction
Currently, 75% of total global energy demand is supplied by the
burning of fossil fuels. But with increasing air pollution, global
warming concerns, diminishing fossil fuels and their increasing
cost have made it necessary to look towards renewable sources as a
future energy solution. The decentralized electricity generation is
intended to provide small-scale power close to users, using a broad
range of renewable technologies. In the past decade, there has been
an enormous interest in many countries on renewable energy
sources (RES) for power generation. These renewable energy
sources are considered as some of the most promising options to
provide a more secure, clean and more efcient energy supply [1].
The RES potential responds to global sustainability and environmental, safety, social, and economic goals. Interconnecting to
the electrical network of RES could have signicant effects on the
system in terms of power ows, voltage prole and reliability. The
benets brought by these sources are numerous: energy efciency,
rational use of energy, competition policy, diversication of energy
sources, availability of modular generating plants, ease of nding

* Corresponding author. Tel.: 40 232 278683; fax: 40 232 237627.

E-mail address: ggrigor@ee.tuiasi.ro (G. Grigoras).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.12.054
0360-5442/ 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

locations for smaller generators, shorter construction times, and

lower capital costs [1e3].
The availability of renewable energy sources can be analysed in
function by the type of potential considered. In the literature,
various types of potentials are dened: theoretical, technical, economic and market [4e7]. Theoretical potential represents the
highest level of potential that takes into account restrictions with
respect to natural and climatic parameters. Technical potential
represents the theoretical potential reduced due to technical limitations, land-use constraints and topographic constraints. The
economic potential is the technical potential at cost levels considered competitive. The market potential is the total amount of
renewable energy that can be implementation in the market taking
into account the demand for energy, the competing technologies,
the costs and subsidies of renewable energy sources. Between the
entire theoretical potential and the technical, economic and market
feasible one, there is nonetheless a signicant gap, creating great
discrepancies between the theoretical hierarchy of the different
renewable sources potential and the practical orientation of projects [7].
In the literature, there are many studies that present different
approaches in the assessment of renewable resource potential.
Comparing their results is very difcult because they use different
assumptions, methodologies, reporting units, and analysis time
periods. In these studies the assessment of renewable energy

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

potential is based either on the complex knowledge of the

geographic regions, both in terms of components and the characteristics of the natural environment (topography, climate, hydrography, soils, and vegetation) either on the interpretation of complex
spatial modelling maps e GIS (Geographic Information System)
documents.
In Ref. [5], the results of a spatial analysis calculating renewable
energy technical potential, reporting available land area (square
kilometres), installed capacity, and electricity generation for
different renewable technologies (solar, wind, biomass, and
geothermal) are presented. Each technology's system, installed
capacity, and land-use constraints were identied using the published researches, subject matter experts, and the analysis of a
research laboratory. The assessment relies heavily on a geographic
information system (GIS) and linear programming model. A map
with geographical spread of renewable energy resources that are
theoretically available on the entire Romanian territory is presented in Ref. [7]. This map is only based on the natural and climatic
factors. A review of how geographic information and remote
sensing techniques are applied to reduce uncertainties surrounding
renewable energy development, with emphasis on policy and
planning needs is presented in Ref. [8]. In Ref. [9] the authors
developed a method for assessment of renewable energy potential
using GIS information and publicly available digital spatial data.
This method is based on the simulation of the meteorological parameters and extraction of theoretical potential areas with different
restrictions (meteorological conditions, geographical features and
social environment). An information system for the assessment of
the technical and economical exploitable RES (Renewable Energy
Sources) potential is presented in Ref. [10]. This tool is based on a
Geographical Information System (GIS) giving the ability to analyse
the prefeasibility of RES investments in wide geographical areas.
Thus, there is a clear need for information management programs that can assess the renewable energy potential from
different geographic areas. In this paper, a clustering based data
mining method for to assess the technical exploitable potential of
renewable energy sources for electricity generation is proposed.
The technical exploitable potential is dened as the capacity and

417

expected energy production from the renewable energy sources to

power stations. The inputs of the proposed method are available
information from the projects in Technical Connection Approval
(CTAs) phase within the validity period (i.e., with some potential for
achievement) given between the years 2012e2014 in Romania by
distribution and transmission companies: installed capacity,
voltage level (low e 0.4 kV, medium e 20 kV, high e 110 kV and
extra high e 220, 400 kV), renewable energy generation technologies (hydro, biomass, biogas, cogeneration, photovoltaic, and
wind), and geographical locations. Using these data, proposed
method transforms them into an easy understandable structure
characterized by zones with different technical exploitable potential of renewable sources. The division in zones based on K-Means
clustering algorithm led to an identication of technical exploitable
potential more accurate than in other analyses, given in Refs. [6,7]
and [11], where the assessment is made only for total technical
potential of Romania, without a detailed assessment per zones,
level voltages and type of renewable energy generation sources.
The algorithm is able to learn and to establish a very good dependence between considered variables for each CTAs.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. In Section 2,
the current renewable energy status in EU countries is presented.
Section 3 presents an overview of the renewable energy potential
in Romania. Section 4 presents the problem of Mining Data in
knowledge discovery from large database and how it can be used in
assess of renewable energy potential. Section 5 shows the results of
testing the proposed method in Romania. Finally, Section 6 contains
the concluding remarks.
2. Renewable energy status in EU
To avoid or at least to reduce climate change, the European
Union has proposed an ambitious plan to increase the share of
renewable energy sources in primary energy consumption to 20%
and a mandatory target of a 20% share of renewable energy sources
in the gross nal energy consumption by 2020 [2,3,12,13,19e22]. A
European Environment Agency analysis of the 20% target showed
that electricity will cover approximately 45% of the EU's renewable

Fig. 1. Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2013 [MW] [24].

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G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

Fig. 2. Cumulative installed grid-connected PV capacity in EU [25].

energy production, heating and cooling 43%, and transport 12%

[20].
The electricity target of many EU countries is based on the wind
and photovoltaic energy considered to have the largest potential in
electricity production from renewable energy sources. Energy Association (EWEA) estimates that, in 2020, the wind power capacity
in the EU will be about 230 GW. By 2020 the electricity production
from wind energy will be equivalent to the total electricity consumption of all households in France, Germany, Poland, Spain and
the United Kingdom together [23]. In 2013, the total wind power
installed capacity was by 117,289 MW, of which 12,030 MW was
installed across Europe (11,159 MW was in the European Union e
9592 MW was onshore and 1567 MW offshore). In Fig. 1, the wind
power installed in EU countries by end of 2013 is presented [24].
Regarding photovoltaic (PV) sources, the energy policies and
public support programs in Europe differ substantially from
country to country. Amongst the European countries, Germany has
been and continues to be the European PV market leader with the
most installations (35,886 GW at the end of January 2014). In
general the Mediterranean region is an area of strategic importance
for PV markets and can potentially play an important part in the
integration and uptake of this technology especially due to the

favourable conditions for PV in the region [18]. Since 2000, solar PV

electricity generation capacity has increased 373 times from
185 MW in 2000 to 69 GW at the end of 2012, as shown in Fig. 2
[25]. The SET for 2020 study carried out by European Photovoltaic Industry Association, outlines that, provided some boundary
conditions are met, PV could supply up to 12% of the electricity
demand in Europe by 2020, thus representing 390 GW of installed
capacity and 460 TWh of electricity generation [26]. the hydropower development in Europe has attained a relatively mature
stage, a signicant potential for hydropower remained still today
[27]. The gross theoretical capability, presented in Fig. 3, represents
a calculation based on the topography and precipitation in the
countries. This is the amount power that could be extracted if all
run-off was turbined down to the lowest level of the specied
country (sea-level).
The potential for new hydroelectric capacity in Europe is often
said to be limited. However, some estimates put the untapped
potential of economically feasible yet-to-develop capacities at
165 TWh/year in Western Europe. The residual potential in South
Eastern Europe is estimated at 145 TWh/year and in Central Eastern
Europe is 6 TWh/year [19].
Biomass represents another renewable source that has the
capability to contribute strongly to meeting the European Union's

Fig. 3. New hydro potential in the three main European regions [TWh/year] [19].

Fig. 4. Biomass electricity production capacity in 2005, 2010 and 2020 [29].

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

419

consumption is predicted to grow by a full 850 TWh by 2020 to a

total of 1650 TWh [29].
3. The renewable energy potential in Romania

Fig. 5. Location of Romania e dark green (grey e on the European continent, green e
in the European Union) [30]. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this
gure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)

renewable targets for both heat and electricity in 2020. A signicant

majority of the biomass required can be produced within the EU. In
2005, the total capacity of biomass power generation was 15.7 GW
[28]. A comparison between status of the EU member in 2005,
interim 2010 and estimation for 2020 is presented in Fig. 4 [29].
In the scenarios published by the European Commission for how
Europe could meet its targets, annual biomass heat and electricity

The integration of renewable sources into a power system is the

biggest challenge for specialists from all countries. Romania is a
country located between Central Europe and South Eastern Europe,
bordering the Black Sea, Fig. 5. Geostrategic role of Romania in
Europe and the important energy routes from southeast of the
country are issues more and more discussed in the last ve years.
Romania is ranked on 10 in the top of most attractive countries in
the world on investment in wind power and on 13th in total
renewable energy sources, into a classication compiled by Ernst
& Young, which comprises 40 countries, including United States,
Germany, China and United Kingdom [31]. The development of
renewable energy sector in Romania is based on the existence of an
important and diversied theoretical potential regarding the
renewable energy sources.
Currently, wind energy has the largest interest because Romania
presents the highest potential from the Southeast of Europe.
Further, southeast of Romania ranks on the second place across the
entire continent. In the past 10 years, the wind potential of Romania
was reassessed. Wind distribution map of Romania, presented in
Fig. 6, includes average annual speeds calculated from the height of
50 m above the ground. The areas with a solid wind potential are:
the Southeast (wind speed is around 8e9 m/s), and the Eastern

Fig. 6. Wind energy potential in Romania [32].

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G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

Fig. 7. Solar energy potential in Romania [32].

(wind speed is about 6e8 m/s). Considerable wind speeds are reported also in other smaller areas in the west of the country. In the
strategy of exploiting renewable energy resources the wind potential is of 14,000 MW (installed capacity), that can provide a
quantity of energy of about 23,000 GWh/year. These values represent an estimation of the theoretical potential and should be
nuanced according to the technical and economic possibilities of
exploitation.
After the great development of the wind sector, Romania has
started to attract investors in the solar energy production domain.
Fig. 7 shows the map distribution of the average annual ow of the
solar energy incident on horizontal surface in Romania. Five areas
differentiated by average annual ow values of solar power can be
observed. It nds that more than half of the country benets of an
average annual ow by of 1275 kWh/m2. According to the National
Energy Strategy, the Romanian solar potential can generate
1.2 TWh of electricity per year, which means 2.5% of the current
consumption [32]. The South and Southeast regions of Romania are
the most suitable areas for such investment.
Hydro energy already represents a substantial source of power,
28% from energy production in Romania. Geographically, the hydroelectric reserves of Romania are concentrated along the Danube
and in the valleys of rivers emerging from the mountain core of the
country. Other hydro resources include more than 2500 lakes,
ranging from the glacial lakes of the mountains to those of the
plains. Hydro energy potential, currently at 5900 MW for domestic
rivers, could reach 8000 MW with additional investments on the
Danube, according to experts' estimations. In Fig. 8, with orange
colour it can be seen the estimated potential of small hydropower
plants in execution. At the end of 2011 the total installed capacity in
hydropower plans was approximately 6528 MW [33].
The potential of developing biomass projects in Romania is quite
large; thanks to the vast density of forestry that covers the country

thus, highlighting the prospect of developing a successful biomass

industry. In Fig. 9 are presented the geographical distribution of the
forest and agricultural biomass resources potential for each county
from Romania. The richest areas in forest biomass resources belongs to Oriental Carpathians, with green colour, and the richest
zones in agricultural biomass resources belongs to Eastern and
Southern of Romania, with yellow colour. Romania is estimated to
have a biomass energy potential corresponding to some 19% of the
total average primary consumption. Biomass is used in Romania
mostly for thermal energy generation (more than 50% from the
generated heat had as source forest biomass burning) [35]. But,
forest biomass is also used in cogeneration plants for electricity
generation. According to [37], in 2013 a number of 13 plants have
contracts for connecting to the national network (total installed
capacity by 46 MW) and electricity production was by 0.37% of
total.
Based on the estimated potentials from renewable sources, the
Romanian Government has committed to the European Union that
the share of electricity produced from renewable resources in the
total electricity consumption to be 24% in 2020. The estimation of
total contribution expected of each renewable technology (wind,
hydro, photovoltaic and biomass) to achieve mandatory targets for
2020 and the indicative interim trajectory for electricity weight
from renewable energy sources is presented in Table 1 [32].
This estimation was made at the beginning of 2005. It can be
seen an exponential growth until 2015e2016, after which growth
will be weighted. Most projects require a connection to high and
extra high voltage networks of 110 kV, 220 kV, and 400 kV [37]. But,
the situation is different in real case. The installed capacity in
renewable sources was smaller than the estimated value. In 2010,
65 producers of renewable sources were registered: 32 of hydropower, 28 of wind energy, 3 in exploitation of biomass and one of
solar energy. The total installed capacity was 561.2 MW [39]. At the

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

421

Fig. 8. Potential of small hydropower plants in Romania [34].

end of 2012 the installed capacity from renewable sources amounts

2301 MW compared to 1225.6 MW in 2011, of which: 1794 MW in
wind power plants, 427 MW in small hydropower plants with an
installed power not more than 10 MW, 26.5 MW in biomass,
2.4 MW in power plants that use waste fermentation gas, and
51 MW in photovoltaic power plants. If these data are compared
with the values from Table 1, it can be said that the targets were
achieved for wind, hydro and photovoltaic power plants, but there
is a signicant difference in the case of biomass (26.5 MW
compared to 165 MW).
4. Mining Data in knowledge discovery from large database
Nowadays, the need to extend the capabilities of human analysis
for handling the large number of data that we may collect has
become increasingly necessary. The ability of the human operators
to analyse the large databases manually is far exceeded. Since
computers have allowed storing more data, it is only natural to
resort to computational techniques to help us to discover meaningful patterns and massive structures volume data. In these conditions, it is necessary to automate the information (knowledge)
discovery to assist the human operator [40,41].
Several denitions are currently being used for both data mining
(DM) and knowledge discovery in databases (KDD). While in some
situations they are used as equivalent terms, data mining is one of
the steps in the knowledge discovery process [42].
Knowledge discovery, generally, is the process of nontrivial
extraction of information from database, information that is

implicitly present in that data, previously unknown and potentially

useful for the user [43]. Knowledge is a pattern that is sufciently
interesting to user and sufciently certain. As regards KDD, this
refers to the overall process of discovering useful knowledge from
data. The KDD process is interactive and iterative, involving
numerous steps with many decisions made by the user, as shown in
Fig. 10 [43,44].
More specically, with reference to the ow-chart of Fig. 10:
Data Selection. In this step, the goal and the tools of the data
mining process are chosen, identifying the data to be mined, then
choosing appropriate input attributes and output information to
represent the task.
Preprocessing. The target in this step is to eliminate the noises or
missing values from the data set. The special techniques are used
for the treatment of missing data.
Data transformation. The kinds of transformations of the preprocessed data depend on the task of the human operator: organizing data in desired ways, converting one type of data to another,
dening new attributes, reducing the dimensionality of the data,
removing outliers and normalizing.
Data mining. The transformed data is subsequently mined, using
one or more techniques to extract patterns of interest. The human
operator can signicantly aid the data mining method by correctly
performing the preceding steps.
Result interpretation/validation. For understanding the meaning
of the synthesized knowledge and its range of validity, the data
mining application tests its robustness, using established estimation methods and unseen data from the database.

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G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

Fig. 9. Biomass potential in Romania per geographical regions and counties [36].

Incorporation of the Discovered Knowledge. In this last step, the

results are presented to the human operator who may check/
resolve potential conicts with previously extracted knowledge
and apply to the new discovered patterns.
As it can be seen, an important step in the KDD process is represented by Data mining (DM). DM involves tting models or
determining patterns from observed data [41].
In the literature, there are available many tools for data mining,
but the most important are [40e45]: classication methods, cluster
analysis, search for association rules, aggregation and approximation
methods, time series analysis, dependency analysis, and prediction
analysis. Another classication, based on the machine learning eld,
is given by division of the data mining methods into two groups:
supervised and unsupervised learning methods. In supervised
learning methods, a functional model is built for one of the variables
(modelled variable). The model will relate the modelled variable
with the rest of variables. Inside this category, the classication and
regression methods are usually considered. In unsupervised
learning, some knowledge about the variables is extracted from the
database. This knowledge is represented by relationships between
variables. The advantage of the unsupervised learning methods is

that interesting structures can be found directly from the data

without any background knowledge. From this category, the most
famous methods are clustering techniques [45e47].
The clustering methods have as input a set of elements. An
element (entity, observation, record, element, datum, or feature
vector) is a single data item used by the clustering algorithm. These
methods build a tree which approximates the similarities between
elements, where each leaf is an element and intermediate nodes
represent groups of elements. There are more clustering methods
which directly build a partition of elements. From these, K-means
clustering algorithm is one of the most used unsupervised learning
algorithms especially for databases.
The K-means algorithm classies the elements xi, i 1, , M,
from whole set S {xi, i 1, , M} based on attributes/features of
them into K clusters (K is positive integer number). A rst
assumption is made for the cluster centroids ck, k 1, , K (usually
chosen at random among the elements of data set). The k centroids
classify the elements, in the sense that the element xi belongs to the
cluster Ck if the distance d(xi, ck) is the minimum of all the K distances between xi and the cluster centroids. The function is a
squared error function.

Table 1
Estimation of the installed capacity in renewable energy sources [32].
Renewable technologies

Installed capacity [MW]

2005

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Wind
Hydro
Photovoltaic
Biomass

1.32
6289
0
0

560
6413
0
14

1250
6537
8
90

1850
6687
43
165

2480
6857
78
250

2880
7087
113
340

3200
7287
148
425

3400
7387
183
510

3600
7452
200
540

3750
7513
220
565

3900
7621
240
590

4000
7729
260
600

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

423

analysis. From these, the test based on the Silhouette Global Index
calculation is one of the most used [48e50]. This calculates the
silhouette width for each sample, average silhouette width for each
cluster and overall average silhouette width for a total data set.
Using this approach each cluster could be represented by so-called
silhouette, which is based on the comparison of its tightness and
separation. The average silhouette width will be applied for evaluation of clustering validity and also will be used to decide determination of optimal number of clusters. The silhouette global
coefcient is calculated with relation [48]:

SGC

K
1 X
Sk
K

(2)

k1

where:
Sk e silhouette local coefcient is dened as:

Sk

nk
1 X
sh
nk

(3)

h1

sj e the silhouette width index for element j is:

Fig. 10. Flow-chart of the KDD process.

sj

K X 

X
minE min@
d xi ; ck A

(1)

k1 x2Ck

where:
ck e the centre of cluster Ck (c {c1, , ck}, C {C1, , CK}, Ck 3 S,
k {1, , K});
d(xi, ck) is the Euclidean distance between a point xi2S, i 1, ,
M, and ck.
Thus, the criterion function E attempts to minimize the distance
of each point from the centre of the cluster to which the point
belongs. More specically, the algorithm begins by initializing a set
of K cluster centres. Then, it assigns each object of the data set to the
cluster whose centre is the nearest, and recomputed the centres.
The process continues until the centres of the clusters stop
changing. In the following, a validation of results must be made.
There are many approaches to cluster validation, but internal
cluster validation tests are more popular in practice of cluster

Fig. 11. The silhouette plot for Koptimal 6.

bj  aj


max bj ; aj

(4)

aj e mean distance between element xih , i 1, , M, and elements of the same cluster k {1, , K};
bh e minimum mean distance between element xij , i 1, , M
and elements in cluster closest to cluster k {1, , K};
In our study, the clustering techniques are used to identify the
zones with highest renewable energy potential in Romania.

5. Study case
The assessment of technical exploitable potential of RES for
electricity generation was made using a database containing the
projects in Technical Connection Approvals (CTAs) phase within
the validity period (i.e., with some potential for achievement) given
in the years 2012e2014 [37]. The database had initially a total
number of approximately 2000 CTAs, but after data pre-processing
step, only 960 CTAs remained. The reduction of database was made
due to following reasons: some connection technical approvals
were cancelled in this time period or overlapped inside of analyse
period due to extension of these approvals (until 2015e2016).
In our study, K-Means clustering algorithm was used to identify
the zones with renewable energy generation potential in function
by the information included in the database. The proposed algorithm is able to work with large databases regardless by the amount
of data, new information that might to be inserted, or current data
that might to be updated and/or deleted.
The information used is referred to: installed capacity, voltage
level (low e 0.4 kV, medium e 20 kV, high e 110 kV, and very high
e 220, 400 kV), type (hydro, biomass, biogas, cogeneration,
photovoltaic, and wind), and the geographical positions.
From the clustering process, 6 clusters were obtained. The
validation of the results was made using the internal cluster validation test based on the calculation of Silhouette Global Coefcient
(SGC). The value of this coefcient was SGC 0.71, representing the
optimal solution of clustering process. The silhouette plot is presented in Fig. 11.

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G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

Table 2
The potential installed capacity of renewable power plants per cluster and zones.
Cluster

Zone

Voltage
[kV]

Hydro
[MW]

Biomass
[MW]

Biogas
[MW]

Cogeneration
[MW]

Photovoltaic
[MW]

Wind
[MW]

Total
[MW]

C4

ZC4
1
ZC4
2
ZC4
3
ZC4
4
ZC4
5
ZC4
6
ZC4
7
ZC1
1
ZC1
2
ZC1
3
ZC3
1
ZC3
2
ZC6
1
ZC6
2
ZC6
3
ZC2
1
ZC2
2
ZC2
3
ZC2
4
ZC2
5
ZC2
6
ZC2
7
ZC2
8
ZC5
1
ZC5
2
ZC5
3
ZC5
4
ZC5
5

0.4

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.07
4.79
16.43
4.00
25.80
23.90
0.00
12.72
9.53
0.00
39.30
0.00
0.00
0.00
21.85
7.70
36.72
300.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.52
7.13
9.10
6.50
19.97
13.80
1.35
0.00
7.50
0.00
13.10
20.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.50
3.74
0.56
6.08
4.79
3.41
0.00
0.23
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.06
0.00
5.00
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.00
7.36
0.60
0.00
1.31
14.80
2.29
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
17.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
295.00
0.00
450.00

0.05
0.36
0.04
1.14
0.25
0.26
0.81
30.22
305.95
166.56
308.73
278.90
77.75
524.62
177.41
0.00
92.00
276.35
404.36
214.19
344.36
178.97
486.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
28.90
52.57
48.40
31.22
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1112.10
309.35
1005.10
30.00
87.00
662.50
0.00
87.00
1095.00
1409.40
2577.30
96.00
0.00

0.05
0.42
0.11
6.14
0.25
0.26
2.65
75.54
395.16
226.62
391.79
322.70
97.31
539.63
194.67
1112.10
453.75
1301.45
465.96
301.19
1028.71
186.67
610.12
1395.00
1409.40
2872.30
96.00
450.00

C1

C3
C6

C2

C5

20

110e220

220e400

Each obtained cluster from clustering process contains a

number of zones, denoted by Z. Each zone name contains two
parts that describe each zone in detail. The rst part of the zone
name is the cluster (denoted by Ck) and the second part of the
name describes the zone in the cluster (denoted by i). In our
case, i 1, , number of zones from cluster Ck, where k 1, ,

9.9

696.3

714.5
831.1

5459.9

6222.7

6. The characteristics (installed capacity and number of power

plants per each type of renewable technology and voltage level)
for each region and zone are indicated in Tables 2 and 3 and
Figs. 12e23. The clusters have been arranged in tables according
to the voltage level, from the low (0.4 kV) to the extra high
(400 kV).

Table 3
The number of renewable power plants per cluster and zones.
Cluster

Zone

Voltage
[kV]

Hydro
[no.]

Biomass
[no.]

Biogas
[no.]

Cogeneration
[no.]

Photovoltaic
[no.]

Wind
[no.]

Total
[no.]

C4

ZC4
1
ZC4
2
ZC4
3
ZC4
4
ZC4
5
ZC4
6
ZC4
7
ZC1
1
ZC1
2
ZC1
3
ZC3
1
ZC3
2
ZC6
1
ZC6
2
ZC6
3
ZC2
1
ZC2
2
ZC2
3
ZC2
4
ZC2
5
ZC2
6
ZC2
7
ZC2
8
ZC5
1
ZC5
2
ZC5
3
ZC5
4
ZC5
5

0.4

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
5
3
1
13
16
0
11
8
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
1
2
3
1
5
2
1
0
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
3
4
3
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
1
0
2
0
0
2
0
3
1
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1

7
4
2
5
7
5
10
17
93
53
97
89
29
139
67
0
2
19
9
10
11
5
13
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
2
1
0
0
0
6
11
18
3
0
0
0
0
20
9
22
1
2
9
0
1
10
8
25
1
0

7
5
4
8
7
5
14
32
117
77
122
111
33
153
77
20
13
42
12
12
21
6
15
11
8
26
1
1

C1

C3
C6

C2

C5

20

110e220

220e400

50

226

233
263

141

47

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

425

Fig. 15. Number of renewable power plants from zones Z1C1 e Z3C1 (Cluster C1).
Fig. 12. Potential installed capacity [MW] of renewable power plants from zones ZC4
1 e
ZC4
7 (Cluster C4).

Fig. 16. Potential installed capacity [MW] of renewable power plants from zones Z1C3 e
Z2C3 (Cluster C3).
C4
Fig. 13. Number of renewable power plants from zones ZC4
1 e Z7 (Cluster C4).

From Tables 2 and 3, it can observe that the clusters are characterized by the voltage level: C4 e low voltage (0.4 kV); C1, C3 and
C6 e medium voltage (20 kV); C2 e high voltage (110e220 kV) and
C5 e extra high voltage (above 220 kV).
The analysis by clusters and zones highlights the following
aspects:
- cluster C4 (low voltage level): The potential installed capacity in
all zones is small (below 1.5 MW), excepting zone Z4C4 , with
5 MW in cogeneration power plants.
- clusters C1, C3, and C6 (medium voltage level): The values are
high for potential installed capacity in the photovoltaic power

Fig. 14. Potential installed capacity [MW] of renewable power plants from zones Z1C1 e
Z3C1 (Cluster C1).

plants (over 300 MW) from zones Z2C1 , Z4C3 , and Z7C6 . For the other
types of renewable technologies, the values are less than
50 MW. The highest installed capacities are in zones Z2C6
(539.6 MW), Z2C1 (395.1 MW) and Z1C3 (391.8 MW). In these zones
is also the largest number of renewable power plants: Z2C6 (153
power plants), Z2C1 (117 power plants) and Z1C3 (111 power
plants).
- cluster C2 (high voltage level): The installed capacities are high
for photovoltaic and wind power plants. Thus, in the zones Z1C2
and Z3C2 , the installed capacity in wind power plants is over
1000 MW, and in zone Z6C2 is around 660 MW. The installed
capacity of photovoltaic power plants is over 400 MW in zones
Z4C2 and Z8C2 , and zone Z6C2 has a potential by approximately

Fig. 17. Number of renewable power plants from zones Z1C3 e Z2C3 (Cluster C3).

426

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

Fig. 18. Potential installed capacity [MW] of renewable power plants from zones Z1C6 e
Z3C6 (Cluster C6).

Fig. 19. Number of renewable power plants from zones Z1C6 e Z3C6 (Cluster C6).

350 MW. For other types of renewable technologies, values are

less than 40 MW. The highest total installed capacity is in zones
Z3C2 , Z1C2 and Z6C2 (over 1000 MW). In zone Z3C2 is the largest
number of renewable power plants (42 power plants).
- cluster C5 (extra high voltage level): At this voltage level, the
largest part of potential installed capacity is in wind power
plants in all zones. The highest installed capacity is in zones Z3C5
(2872.3 MW), Z1C5 and Z2C5 (with around 1400 MW). In zone Z3C5
is the largest number of power plants (26).
The obtained zones from clustering process can be viewed as
maps. The representation of the zones is given in Figs. 24e27.

Fig. 20. Potential installed capacity [MW] of renewable power plants from zones Z1C2 e
Z8C2 (Cluster C2).

Fig. 21. Number of renewable power plants from zones Z1C2 e Z8C2 (Cluster C2).

Fig. 22. Potential installed capacity [MW] of renewable power plants from zones Z1C5 e
Z5C5 (Cluster C5).

As can be seen from Figs. 24e27, the obtained zones are spread
across the entire surface of Romania. Thus, the clustering based
division led to an identication of technical exploitable potential
more accurate, having a detailed assessment by zones, level voltages and type of renewable energy generation sources.
Further, the analysis made in function by geographical location
highlighted that the highest values of renewable energy potential
are in eastern part (zones Z1C1 , Z2C1 , e medium voltage level; Z1C4 , Z2C4
e low voltage level; Z1C2 , Z2C2 e high voltage level; Z1C5 , Z2C5 e extra
high voltage) with a total renewable energy potential by
4841.42 MW (34.74% from total renewable energy potential), followed by Southeaster region (zones Z3C1 e medium voltage level;
Z3C4 e low voltage level; Z3C2 e high voltage level; Z3C5 e extra high
voltage) with 4400.48 MW (31.58% from total renewable energy
potential), and Southern part (zones Z2C6 , Z3C6 , e medium voltage
level; zones Z4C4 , Z5C4 e low voltage level; Z4C2 , Z5C2 e high voltage

Fig. 23. Number of renewable power plants from zones Z1C5 e Z5C5 (Cluster C5).

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

427

Fig. 24. Map of zones from cluster C4 (Voltage level: 20 kV).

level) with 1507.84 MW (10.82% from total renewable energy

potential).
6. Concluding remarks
Romania is a country with a great potential of renewable energy
sources as resulted from the analysis performed. Considering a
large database that contains the status of CTAs between years
2012e2014 from Romania, the technical exploitable potential for
electricity generation from renewable energy sources (hydro,

biomass, biogas, cogeneration, photovoltaic, and wind) was

assessed using a clustering based Data Mining method.
The proposed method extracts information from an enormous
database (containing data from all distribution and transmission
companies relating to status of CTAs) and transforms it into an easy
understandable structure. The structure refers to zones for which
the technical exploitable potential is identied more accurate than
in other approaches [6,7,11], where the assessment is made only for
total technical potential of Romania, without a detailed assessment
per zones, level voltages and type of renewable energy generation

Fig. 25. Map of zones from cluster C1, C3 and C6 (Voltage level: 0.4 kV).

428

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

Fig. 26. Map of zones from cluster C2 (Voltage level: 110e220 kV).

sources. As a consequence, the method is comfortable for CTAs

crossing administrative boundaries of the counties/countries.
On the other hand, the method is able to learn and to establish a
very good dependence between considered variables for each CTAs:
type of renewable source, installed capacity, voltage level, and
geographical position. The learning process isn't sensitive at
dimension of database, new information might be inserted or
current data might be updated and/or deleted.
Depending on the information included in database, the future
technical exploitable potential was divided into 6 representative
clusters using proposed method. The most renewable energy potential is at the extra high voltage level (cluster C5 e 6222.7 MW,
44.66%), followed by the high voltage level (cluster C2 e 5450 MW,

39.18%), medium voltage level (clusters C1, C3 and C6 e 2241.9 MW,

16.09%), and low voltage (cluster C4 e 9.9 MW, 0.07%). Among all
types of renewable sources that were analysed, the highest potential is given by wind energy (8631.9 MW, representing 61.95%
from total renewable energy potential). On the second position, it is
photovoltaic energy (3869.2 MW, representing 27.77% from total).
The others positions are occupied by: cogeneration (789.3 MW,
5.66%), hydro (503.8, 3.61%), biomass (100 MW, 0.72%), and biogas
(36 MW, 0.26%). From viewpoint of geographical location, the
highest values of renewable energy potential are in eastern part
with a total renewable energy potential by 4841.42 MW, followed
by southeastern region with 4400.48 MW, and southern part with
1507.84 MW.

Fig. 27. Map of zones from cluster C5 (Voltage level: 220e400 kV).

G. Grigoras, F. Scarlatache / Energy 81 (2015) 416e429

From analysis, a technical exploitable potential by 16.9 TWh/

year was identied representing 52% of Romania's target. But, this
potential should lead to the main investments in electrical distribution and transmission networks from Romania in perspective
2014e2020. In this regard, the maps obtained can be a useful
working tool for retrotting substations, upgrading of transmission
and distribution lines and also for redesigning them at different
parameters with respect to the overload. The upgrading process
will be done, taking into consideration the technical infrastructure
that is divided into two: the distribution system and the transmission system. The renewable sources with small installed capacities are connected to the low or medium voltage distribution
system, where traditionally only consumers have been connected.
The introduction of large amounts of them will require investments
not only at the voltage level where the units are connected but also
at higher voltage levels (110, 220 or 400 kV). The variation in production from renewable sources will conduct to new power quality
phenomena, typically at lower voltage levels (0.4 kV and 20 kV).
Moreover, this variation as well as the difculty in predicting
renewable sources production will have an impact in the design
and operation of electrical distribution networks. By upgrading of
electrical transmission networks and building of the new lines, it
will ensure the evacuation of power from southeastern, eastern and
southern parts and increasing the interconnection capacity with
neighbour countries (Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova and Serbia).
These investments will ensure the evacuation of power from south
eastern part and increasing the interconnection capacity. The recovery of all investments can be made through transmission tariff
established by the competent authority on the basis of cost justied
in terms of a reasonable prot.
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