To: Interested Parties

From: TargetPoint Consulting and America Rising PAC

Date: May 28, 2015
Re: Recent Polling Trends Show Americans
Arent Ready For Hillary

Since leaving the State Department, Hillary Clintons favorability numbers have taken a sharp nose dive, indicating
that her standing with the American public is much different than her campaign would like you to believe. As her
candidacy has been beset by scandals over her email server and questionable donations to the Clinton Foundation,
pro-Clinton forces have argued that the controversies arent breaking through or impacting voters perception of
her, often citing a CBS News/New York Times poll as evidence. But unfortunately for Secretary Clinton and her
team, they are glossing over a lot of serious problems in her numbers. Consider the following:
1. Candidate Clinton isnt as popular as her campaign would like you to believe.
In more than a dozen polls of likely or registered voters aggregated by HuffPost Pollster, Clintons average unfavorable
numbers are now greater than her favorables. Overall, 49% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Even more
surprising is the most recent poll from Democrat-leaning firm PPP showing 53% of likely voters with an unfavorable
opinion of Clinton. The chart below shows a disturbing trend for Clinton. While some Americans may not have solidly
made up their minds on Clinton, more people view her in a negative light than positive.

2. Secretary Clintons favorability has not been this low since the conclusion of her 2008 presidential run.
In May of 2008, one month before the end of her presidential run, Clintons favorability was at 48%. Those low favorability
numbers mirror the low favorability numbers were seeing from Clinton now as a candidate.

Similar trend lines were also highlighted by America Rising in a memo in July 2013 when they noted that Clinton is
at her weakest when viewed as a partisan:
The low points for Clinton have all come when she was in the middle of campaign and partisan political fights. Since
leading the first attempt at a government takeover of health care and at the center of early Clinton Administration
scandals, to waging a bitter and difficult campaign for the presidency, Clintons numbers suffered when under greater
media scrutiny and attack.
3. Clintons highest increase and peak in favorability came when she was appointed Secretary of State.
In the aftermath of her 2008 bid and her appointment to Foggy Bottom, we see Clintons favorability jump considerably. In
November of 2009 she peaked at 66% favorability and in December of 2012 her favorability was at 65%.
4. She hasnt come close to those numbers since leaving office, and these latest scandals arent helping.
A month after Clinton saw 65% favorability as Secretary of State, she testified before Congress at the Benghazi hearing in
January 2013. Her favorability numbers havent recovered to her Secretary of State level of popularity since. Four months
after leaving office, a June 2013 Gallup poll showed Clinton at 58% favorability. Her favorability has been on a steady
decline since then - by June of 2014 it stood at 54% favorability. No public poll of voters has her favorability breaking
50% since she announced her second bid for president in April 2015. And Americans arent unaffected by the plague of
scandals following the Clinton campaign.
According to a CNN/ORC poll, 51% believe that Clintons use of a private email while Secretary of State is a serious
problem, while another CBS poll shows 62% think using the private email was not appropriate. Americans just dont
believe theyre getting the full truth. Bloomberg reports from their April poll that 53% think she purposefully withheld
or deleted some relevant emails. A Vox Populi poll confirms a plurality of voters believe Clinton intentionally withheld
information, 52% dont trust Clinton, and 68% believe she risked American security.

5. Independent voters are still wary of a Clinton presidency.

The CBS News/New York Times poll shows only 48% of Independents believe Hillary Clinton shares the values most
Americans try to live by, and only 41% think she is honest and trustworthy. Fifty-six percent of voters would rather have a
presidential candidate whose political experience was mostly outside of Washington including 59% of Independents. An
AP report confirms, more than six in ten Independents agreed that honest was not the best word for her.
Despite a considerably large collection of historic public opinion data from reputable sources (here, here, and here),
Hillary Clintons allies continue to attempt to point to increased favorability numbers as a sign that all the attention on her
scandals over emails and donations arent breaking through or moving numbers. We have enough evidence to show her
strategy isnt dramatically improving her favorability. Dedicated Democrats may show support for Clinton, but Americans
arent as ready for Hillary as her allies would like us to imagine.