Name Prof.

Karen Gebhardt__
Macroeconomic Analysis Report
Data Collection Form
_________Vietnam_____________
(Country)
1.

(10 points)

Fundamental Facts
Population (2009)

88,576,758 [Rank:13]
(July est.)

Land Area (2009, sq.km.) 331,210 [Rank:65]

Source: (Central Intelligence Agency, 2010)
2.

(10 points)

Annual Percentage Change in Real GDP (%)

2009

__5.32%___[Rank:21]

2008

__6.18%___________

Source: (General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2009)

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2010)
3.

(10 points)

Real GDP and Real GDP per capita

2009 Real GDP
(U.S. $ - PPP)

$258.1 bil.[Rank:42]

2009 Per Capita real GDP

(U.S. $ - PPP)

$2,900 [Rank:165]

Source: (Central Intelligence Agency, 2010)

4.

(10 points)

Annual Inflation Rate (%)

2009

_6.88%_ [Rank:164]

2008

____22.97%____

Source: (General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2009)

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2010)

5.

(10 points)

Unemployment Rate (%)

2009

___2.9% [Rank:23]

2008

___2.38%__________

Source: (General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2009)

6.

(10 points)

Foreign Exchange Rate

(Units of domestic currency per U.S. dollar)
Currency name

__dong (VND)______

May 3, 2010

___18,544_________

December 31, 2009

___17,941_______

December 31, 2008

___16,977________

Source: (The State Bank of Vietnam, 2010)

7.

(10 points)

Central Bank Interest Rate (%)

Interest rate name

__Discount Rate

December 31,2009

______5.0%_______

December 31,2008

______7.5%_______

Source: (The State Bank of Vietnam, 2010)

8.

(10 points)

Central Government Budget Surplus/Deficit

(as a percent of GDP)
2009

_____7.0%_______

2008

______4.4%______

Source: (General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2009)

(General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2008)

Dr. Nancy Gebhardt

Macroeconomic Economic Analysis Report: Vietnam
Based on key economic indicators for 2008 and 2009, the
economy of Vietnam is healthy and growing rapidly even in the
midst of a global financial crisis and recession.

The first

part of this report provides perspective on the relative size of

Vietnam and its economy within the global economy. The next part
reports on indicators of real economic activity in Vietnam
including real GDP growth and the unemployment rate. Then
nominal indicators, such as the inflation rate and exchange
rate, are reviewed.

The final part of this analysis looks at

the stance of monetary and fiscal policies as reflected in

changes in the central bank discount rate and the central
government budget deficit.
Vietnam is a relatively small country geographically with a
relatively large population.

Vietnam has a population of

88,576,758, which ranks 13th among 200 countries, but has a land
area of 331,210 square kilometers, which ranks 65th in terms
physical size (Central Intelligence Agency, 2010).
Vietnam is classified as a low-income economy by the World
Bank (The World Bank Group, 2010).

Real GDP in Vietnam in 2009

totaled $238.1 billion on a purchasing power basis, placing

Vietnam as the 42nd largest economy on the world (Central
Intelligence Agency, 2010).

Per capita real GDP in 2009 is

estimated at $2,900 on a purchasing power parity basis, ranking

165th among the nations of the world (Central Intelligence
Agency, 2010).
The global economic crisis did little to slow rapid
economic growth in Vietnam in 2008 and 2009.

Real GDP growth in

2009 advanced at a 5.32% rate in 2009, which was only slightly

lower than the 6.18% reported for 2008 (General Statistics
Office of Vietnam, 2009).

Consistent with the slowdown in real

economic activity, the reported unemployment rate advanced from

2.38% to 2.9% (General Statistics Office of Vietnam, 2009).
Slower advances in nominal variables are very positive
factors for the Vietnamese economy. The rate of inflation slowed
dramatically from 22.97% in 2008 to 6.88% in 2009, the lowest
rate of inflation recorded in six years (General Statistics
Office of Vietnam, 2009). The nominal exchange rate between the
Vietnamese dong and the U.S. dollar depreciated at a steady 5.5%
annual rate over the period from 2007 to 2009. At the end of
December 2008, 16,977 VND traded for $1 and had depreciated to
17,941 VND per dollar by the end of 2009 (The State Bank of
Vietnam, 2010). At the beginning of May 2010, 18,544 VND
exchanged for $1 (The State Bank of Vietnam, 2010).
Both monetary and fiscal policies were expansionary over
the 2008-09 period.

The discount rate of the State Bank of

Vietnam was reduced from 7.5% in December 2008 to 5.0% by

December 2009, indicating an easing of credit conditions to

promote economic growth (The State Bank of Vietnam, 2010).

The

budget deficit of the central government increased from 4.4% of

GDP in 2008 to 7.0% of GDP in 2009, suggesting greater fiscal
stimulus in the economy (General Statistics Office of Vietnam,
2009 & 2008).
In summary, the economy of Vietnam continued to experience
extraordinary economic growth in 2008 and 2009, despite a global
economic slowdown.

From 2008 to 2009, real GDP in Vietnam

continued to increase rapidly, although accompanied by slightly

higher unemployment.

Inflation dropped from double-digit

levels, but remained higher than levels experienced in the more

advanced economies, which contributed to the continuing
depreciation of the Vietnamese currency, the dong, against the
U.S. dollar.

Both monetary and fiscal policies supported the

economic expansion as the central bank discount rate was lowered

and the central government budget deficit grew relative to GDP.

References
Central Intelligence Agency. (2010, April 22). Vietnam.
Retrieved May 4, 2010, from The World Factbook:
http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/countrytemplate_vm.html
General Statistics Office of Vietnam. (2009). Social Economic
Statistical Data. Retrieved May 3, 2010, from Monthly
Statistical Information:
http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=622&ItemID=9466
General Statistics Office of Vietnam. (2008). Social Economic
Data. Retrieved May 3, 2010, from Monthly Statistical
Information:
Http://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?tabid=622&ItemID=8232
The State Bank of Vietnam. (2010). Information on Interest
Rates. Retrieved May 3, 2010, from The State Bank of Vietnam:
http://www.sbv.gov.vn/en/CdeCSTT-TD/laisuat3.jsp
The State Bank of Vietnam. (2010). Inter-Bank Average Exchange
Rate. Retrieved May 3, 2010, from The State Bank of Vietnam:
http://www.sbv.gov.vn/home/tygia.jsp
The World Bank Group. (2010). Country Lending Groups. Retrieved
May 8, 2010, from The World Bank :
http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-classifications/countryand-lending-groups