Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Introduction
Statistics examples:
Coffee by the numbers from the National Coffee Association:
1. 54% of Americans over the age of 18 drinks coffee every day
2. Among those who drink coffee, they drink an average of 3.1
cups a day and the average size of a cup is 9 oz.
3. The average price of an espresso-based drink is $2.45. The
average price for a brewed cup of coffee is $1.38
4. The U.S. spends $40 billion on coffee each year.
For more fun statistics about coffee, check
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/topic/coffee/
Statistics examples:
New product introduction: A brand group wishes to investigate
consumer reaction to an improved package design for its line of
cookies.
Manufacturing quality control: A manufacturer wishes to
monitor the quality of springs it produces in order to make sure
its product meets customer requirements.
Sales forecasting: A sales manager wishes to predict the sales
performance of each of the companys sales representatives on
the basis of historical performance of each representative.
What is Statistics?
The goal of statistics is to make inferences based on data. It
involves a range of techniques and procedures for collecting data,
describing data and making decisions based on data.
How numbers are collected ? Experimental design/ sampling
How statistics are calculated ? Descriptive Statistics
How results are interpreted ? Inferential Statistics
We make hypothesis about what is true, collect data in experiments,
describe the results, and the infer from the results the strength of the
evidence concerning our hypothesis.
Example 3. In the 1970s, many parts of the US began to allow drivers to turn right at a red light. For
many years prior, road designers and civil engineers argued that allowing right turns on a red light
would be a safety hazard, causing many additional crashes and pedestrian deaths. But the 1973 oil
crisis spurred politicians to consider allowing right turn on red to save fuel wasted by commuters
waiting at red lights. Several studies were conducted to evaluate the safety impact of the change.
A consultant for the Virginia Department of Highways and Transportation conducted a before-andafter study of twenty intersections which began to allow right turns on red. Before the change there
were 308 accidents at the intersections; after, there were 337 in a similar length of time. However, this
difference was not statistically significant, and so the consultant concluded there was no safety
impact. Several subsequent studies had similar findings: small increases in the number of crashes, but
not enough data to conclude these increases were significant. As one report concluded,
``There is no reason to suspect that pedestrian accidents involving RT operations (right turns) have
increased after the adoption of [right turn on red]..."
Based on this data, more cities and states began to allow right turns at red lights. The problem is that
these studies were underpowered. More pedestrians were being run over and more cars were involved
in collisions, but nobody collected enough data to show this conclusively until several years later,
when studies arrived clearly showing the results: significant increases in collisions and pedestrian
accidents (sometimes up to 100% increases). The misinterpretation of underpowered studies cost
lives.
(source: the wrong turn on red from Statistics Done Wrong )
Hypothesis tests
True or false?
1. Reject the hypothesis when it is true
2. Fail to reject the hypothesis is true when it is false