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development and recommendation, and resource allocation. Engineering economic analysis can
provide
information on the consequences of different levels of investment among a diverse set of programs in
a consistent,
monetized framework to help in these decisions.
Highway investments also may entail significant impacts in environment, energy, materials usage,
economic vitality, and quality of life, in both monetary and nonmonetary terms. Even when it is not
possible to quantify all
impacts in dollars, the framework provided by an engineering economic analysis can provide a useful
point of
departure for organizing qualitative as well as quantitative information about highway investment
options.
Discounted Cash Flow Methods
Computational methods have been developed to perform EEAs according to the principles described
earlier. These
methods include :
net present value (NPV),
equivalent uniform annual cost (EUAC),
BCA (or B/C), and
internal rate of return (IRR).
Only a brief commentary on these methods is provided in this synthesis, consistent with the study
scope outlined in chapter one. The focus of this report is rather on the application of these methods to
support highway investment decisions as illustrated in the several case examples in chapter three. The
methods are well described in the general engineeringeconomics literature. They are also described
in references providing transportation- and highway-specific guidance. Risk analysis methods are
covered in the next section.
Although the four methods listed entail somewhat different data and procedures, they all will yield the
same decision when applied correctly (Grant et al. 1990, chapters 47).
This synthesis adopts this position, which is based on the following precepts:
All of the engineering economic methods are based on a LCCA of investment alternatives. The LCCA
is a discounted cash flow analysis of monetized cost and benefit streams. The analysis period or
analysis horizon, in
years, is sufficiently long to capture a reasonable representation of the significant costs and benefits of
each
alternative through equivalent periods of performance. The four methods identified previously (NPV,
EUAC,
BCA, IRR) all meet these stipulations. Other methods (such as project payback periods) have their uses
in
other contexts, but generally do not meet these characteristics of LCCA. (Project payback periods may
or
may not depend on discounted cash flows; they do not analyze alternatives through equivalent
performance
periods; and they therefore do not capture the full representation of costs and benefits through a
performance
period.)
Net benefits and net costs are used to assess the differences in consequences among alternatives.
Both
costs and benefits may take on positive or negative values, and bookkeeping conventions could be
established
to treat the respective quantities consistently and correctly. For example, the consequences of highway
investments on passenger and freight travel are measured in road user costs. When comparing
alternative
investments, reductions in these costs (or avoidance of these costs) are treated as benefits.
Conversely, actions
that increase road user costs are said to incur disbenefits. Case examples in chapter three involving
use of the
California DOTs (Caltrans) Cal-B/C model will illustrate how these net-value calculations in tallies of
discounted
agency and road user costs are interpreted for the economic analysis results.
In comparing alternative solutions, BCA and IRR analysis are both properly done on an incremental
basis.
There is considerable literature covering both simple B/C or IRR and incremental B/C or IRR
calculations.
If a project is being compared solely with a No-Build or Do Nothing option, the incremental case
reduces
to the simple case, and both yield the identical result. The same decision on whether or not the
investment
is economically justified will also be produced by the NPV and EUAC methods.
When there are a number of investment alternatives addressing a particular need or problem,
however, the
proper approach is to conduct the B/C or IRR analysis incrementally. The simple B/C result can be used
as a
screen: a simple B/C of less than 1.0 will not bear out on an incremental basis either. However, in the
general
case that is not subject to a budget constraint, a solution with the highest simple B/C may not
necessarily
be the optimal solution. Rather, the theoretically optimal result is the investment with an incremental
B/C
exceeding 1.0.