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IMPACTO AMBIENTAL
MENCION PROYECTOS DE INVERSION
DAA
Variabl
e
Representaci
n
Explicacin
Cuantificacin
Prob(SI)
Probabilidad de
responder S
Variable
dependiente
binaria
que
representa la probabilidad de responder SI a
la pregunta de disponibilidad a pagar
1=S
el
usuario
responde
positivamente a la pregunta de
DAP,
0=S
responde
negativamente.
PREC
Precio hipottico
a pagar
PAM
Percepcin
ambiental
Variable
independiente
binaria
que
representa la percepcin del grado de
deterioro del Malecn Eco turstico de la
ciudad de Puno.
0= Si considera no deteriorado,
1= S considera deteriorado y
muy deteriorado
ING
Ingreso
EDU
Educacin
GEN
Gnero
Variable
independiente
binaria
representa el gnero del entrevistado
1=Primaria,
2=Secundaria,
3=Preparatoria
4=Licenciatura
5=Posgrado
1=Si es hombre, 0= Si es mujer
Edad
EDAD
que
1=18-25
2=26-35
3=36-45
4=46-55
5=56-89
aos
aos
aos
aos
aos
1.- Gnero:
Varn
mujer
Menos de s/750,
s/750- s/1200
s/ 1200 s/ 2000
s/2000 s/ 3500
Ms de s/3500.
MODELO DICOTOMICO
Estimando modelo:
VariableMeanStd.Dev.MinimumMaximumCases
DIST3.77179487.5840417271.000000004.00000000390
CONT.428205128.495454255.0000000001.00000000390
PSI.571794872.495454255.0000000001.00000000390
PREC3.416666671.72016744.5000000007.00000000390
GEN.507692308.500583010.0000000001.00000000390
EDU3.13846154.9759618251.000000005.00000000390
ING3.348717951.490824001.000000007.00000000390
PSI: 1.15 0.66 DIST+ 0.64 CONT - 0.49 PREC - 0.17 GEN + 0.50
EDU + 0.49 ING
DONDE:
PSI (Y)
DIST(X2)
CONT(X3)
PREC(X4)
GEN(X5)
EDU(X6)
ING(X7):
B1, B2, B3,
B4, B5, B6,
B7:
INTERPRETACION:
La variable PREC muestra un valor negativo, esto indica que a mayor precio
ofertado al encuestado, menor disponibilidad a pagar; donde
la
percepcin de contaminacin
mayor.
b) Interprete la validez estadstica del modelo estimado (relevancia,
dependencia y ajuste).
ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DEL MODELO ESTIMADO
Variable|Coefficient|StandardError|b/St.Er.|P[|Z|>z]|MeanofX|
CharacteristicsinnumeratorofProb[Y=1]
Constante1.155715681.124829791.027.3042
DIST.66620736.243913192.731.00633.77179487
CONT.64577345.271710212.377.0175.42820513
PREC.49059166.077973856.292.00003.41666667
GEN.17302485.25086426.690.4904.50769231
EDU.50774762.151251893.357.00083.13846154
ING.49096658.102484414.791.00003.34871795
RELEVANCIA:
Planteamiento de la hiptesis
Ho: =0 ---No tiene la disponibilidad pagar.
Ha: 0 --- Si tiene la disponibilidad a pagar.
NIVEL DE SIGNIFICANCIA
VARIABLE
DISTANCIA
CONTAMINACI
ON
PRECIO
GENERO
EDUCACION
INGRESO
SIGNIFICANCIA
Significancia al 1 %
Significancia al 5 %
PROBABILIDAD
0.0063
0.0175
Significancia al 1 %
No Significativo
Significancia al 1 %
Significancia al 1 %
0.0000
0.4904
0.0008
0.0000
DEPENDENCIA:
LR=2(LnLrLnL)
Dnde:
Restrictedloglikelihood266.2930
Chisquared130.3768
Degreesoffreedom6
Prob[ChiSqd>value]=.0000000
CALCULANDO:
AJUSTE:
InformationStatisticsforDiscreteChoiceModel.|
CriterionF(logL)201.10453266.29296270.32740
LRStatisticvs.MC130.37685.00000.00000
DegreesofFreedom6.00000.00000.00000
Prob.ValueforLR.00000.00000.00000
Entropyforprobs.201.10453266.29296270.32740
NormalizedEntropy.74393.985081.00000
EntropyRatioStat.138.445748.06889.00000
BayesInfoCriterion438.00594568.38279576.45168
BICBIC(nomodel)138.445748.06889.00000
PseudoRsquared.24480.00000.00000
Pct.CorrectPrec.75.89744.0000050.00000
Means:y=0y=1y=2y=3yu=4y=5,y=6y>=7
Outcome.4282.5718.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000
Pred.Pr.4282.5718.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000
PSEUDO . R =1(201.1045/266.2930)=0.24
El Pseudo R2 nos muestra se encuentra dentro del intervalo entre 0.20 -0.40, es
decir la estimacin del modelo est bien.
ThresholdvalueforpredictingY=1=.5000
Actual
0
1
TOTAL
0
116
43
159
1
51
180
231
TOTAL
167
223
390
El resultado es de una prediccin del 167 en total, pero el modelo se equivoca 116
que no estn dispuestos a pagar y 51 estan en las condiciones de la disponibilidad a pagar.
Observaciones
.27805
-.16028
.15275
-.11803
-.04159
.12216
.11812
10
INTERPRETACION:
11
PSI =- 1.39 0.61 DIST + 0.71 CONT 0.16 GEN +0.54 EDU +0.44ING
+0.04PRECR
|M=ModelMC=ConstantsOnlyM0=NoModel|
|CriterionF(logL)210.21265266.29296270.32740|
|LRStatisticvs.MC112.16061.00000.00000|
|DegreesofFreedom6.00000.00000.00000|
|Prob.ValueforLR.00000.00000.00000|
|Entropyforprobs.210.21265266.29296270.32740|
|NormalizedEntropy.77762.985081.00000|
FitMeasuresforBinomialChoiceModel
|EntropyRatioStat.120.229498.06889.00000|
LogitmodelforvariablePSI
|BayesInfoCriterion456.22219568.38279576.45168|
+
|BICBIC(nomodel)120.229498.06889.00000|
|ProportionsP0=.428205P1=.571795|
|PseudoRsquared.21060.00000.00000|
|N=390N0=167N1=223|
|Pct.CorrectPrec.75.64103.0000050.00000|
|LogL=210.21265LogL0=266.2930|
|Means:y=0y=1y=2y=3yu=4y=5,y=6y>=7
|Estrella=1(L/L0)^(2L0/n)=.27598|
++
|Efron|McFadden|Ben./Lerman|
|.27575|.21060|.64118|
|Cramer|Veall/Zim.|Rsqrd_ML|
|.26725|.38691|.24993|
++
|InformationAkaikeI.C.SchwarzI.C.|
|Criteria1.11391462.18833|
++
ThresholdvalueforpredictingY=1=.5000
Predicted
Actual01|Total
+
011750|167
145178|223
12
+
Total162228|390
--> LOGIT;Lhs=PSI;Rhs=ONE,DIST,CONT,PREC,GEN,EDU,ING;Margin$
CREANDO Y ESTIMANDO LA VARIABLE DAP
>PROC=DAP$
>ENDPROC$
>CALC;COEF1=B(1)$
>CALC;COEF2=B(2)$
>CALC;COEF3=B(3)$
>CALC;COEF4=B(4)$
>CALC;COEF5=B(5)$
>CALC;COEF6=B(6)$
>CALC;COEF7=B(7)$
CREATE;ALFA=COEF1+COEF3*CONT+COEF4*PREC+COEF5*GEN+COEF6*EDU+COEF7*I
NG$
>CREATE;BETA=B(2)$
>CREATE;DAP=ALFA/BETA$
>DSTAT;RHS=DAP$
14
MS ANEXOS
>RESET
>RESET
>READ;FILE="G:\rayssa\maestria\VALORACION2015\MaterialSemana1\DatosTaller1...
>DSTAT;Rhs=DIST,CONT,PSI,PREC,GEN,EDU,ING$
DescriptiveStatistics
Allresultsbasedonnonmissingobservations.
===============================================================================
VariableMeanStd.Dev.MinimumMaximumCases
===============================================================================
Allobservationsincurrentsample
DIST3.77179487.5840417271.000000004.00000000390
CONT.428205128.495454255.0000000001.00000000390
PSI.571794872.495454255.0000000001.00000000390
PREC3.416666671.72016744.5000000007.00000000390
GEN.507692308.500583010.0000000001.00000000390
EDU3.13846154.9759618251.000000005.00000000390
ING3.348717951.490824001.000000007.00000000390
Matrix: LastDsta
[7,7]
>LOGIT;Lhs=PSI;Rhs=ONE,DIST,CONT,PREC,GEN,EDU,ING;Margin$
Normalexitfromiterations.Exitstatus=0.
++
|MultinomialLogitModel|
|MaximumLikelihoodEstimates|
|Modelestimated:Mar02,2015at11:52:42PM.|
|DependentvariablePSI|
|WeightingvariableNone|
|Numberofobservations390|
|Iterationscompleted6|
|Loglikelihoodfunction201.1045|
|Restrictedloglikelihood266.2930|
|Chisquared130.3768|
|Degreesoffreedom6|
|Prob[ChiSqd>value]=.0000000|
|HosmerLemeshowchisquared=14.85970|
|Pvalue=.06193withdeg.fr.=8|
++
+++++++
|Variable|Coefficient|StandardError|b/St.Er.|P[|Z|>z]|MeanofX|
+++++++
CharacteristicsinnumeratorofProb[Y=1]
Constant1.155715681.124829791.027.3042
DIST.66620736.243913192.731.00633.77179487
CONT.64577345.271710212.377.0175.42820513
PREC.49059166.077973856.292.00003.41666667
GEN.17302485.25086426.690.4904.50769231
EDU.50774762.151251893.357.00083.13846154
ING.49096658.102484414.791.00003.34871795
Matrix: LastOutp
[7,4]
++
|InformationStatisticsforDiscreteChoiceModel.|
|M=ModelMC=ConstantsOnlyM0=NoModel|
|CriterionF(logL)201.10453266.29296270.32740|
|LRStatisticvs.MC130.37685.00000.00000|
|DegreesofFreedom6.00000.00000.00000|
|Prob.ValueforLR.00000.00000.00000|
|Entropyforprobs.201.10453266.29296270.32740|
|NormalizedEntropy.74393.985081.00000|
|EntropyRatioStat.138.445748.06889.00000|
|BayesInfoCriterion438.00594568.38279576.45168|
|BICBIC(nomodel)138.445748.06889.00000|
|PseudoRsquared.24480.00000.00000|
15
|Pct.CorrectPrec.75.89744.0000050.00000|
|Means:y=0y=1y=2y=3yu=4y=5,y=6y>=7|
|Outcome.4282.5718.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000|
|Pred.Pr.4282.5718.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000|
|Notes:EntropycomputedasSum(i)Sum(j)Pfit(i,j)*logPfit(i,j).|
|NormalizedentropyiscomputedagainstM0.|
|EntropyratiostatisticiscomputedagainstM0.|
|BIC=2*criterionlog(N)*degreesoffreedom.|
|Ifthemodelhasonlyconstantsorifithasnoconstants,|
|thestatisticsreportedherearenotuseable.|
++
++
|Partialderivativesofprobabilitieswith|
|respecttothevectorofcharacteristics.|
|TheyarecomputedatthemeansoftheXs.|
|ObservationsusedareAllObs.|
++
+++++++
|Variable|Coefficient|StandardError|b/St.Er.|P[|Z|>z]|Elasticity|
+++++++
CharacteristicsinnumeratorofProb[Y=1]
Constant.27805023.269548511.032.3023
DIST.16028087.058421642.744.00611.01260628
MarginaleffectfordummyvariableisP|1P|0.
CONT.15275368.062763812.434.0149.10956060
PREC.11803000.018700426.312.0000.67546973
MarginaleffectfordummyvariableisP|1P|0.
GEN.04159378.06025234.690.4900.03537039
EDU.12215750.036377003.358.0008.64216677
ING.11812020.024629314.796.0000.66254232
++
|MarginalEffectsfor|
+++
|Variable|AllObs.|
+++
|ONE|.27805|
|DIST|.16028|
|CONT|.15275|
|PREC|.11803|
|GEN|.04159|
|EDU|.12216|
|ING|.11812|
+++
++
|FitMeasuresforBinomialChoiceModel|
|LogitmodelforvariablePSI|
++
|ProportionsP0=.428205P1=.571795|
|N=390N0=167N1=223|
|LogL=201.10453LogL0=266.2930|
|Estrella=1(L/L0)^(2L0/n)=.31848|
++
|Efron|McFadden|Ben./Lerman|
|.31825|.24480|.66176|
|Cramer|Veall/Zim.|Rsqrd_ML|
|.30928|.43401|.28416|
++
|InformationAkaikeI.C.SchwarzI.C.|
|Criteria1.06720443.97209|
++
Frequenciesofactual&predictedoutcomes
Predictedoutcomehasmaximumprobability.
ThresholdvalueforpredictingY=1=.5000
Predicted
+
Actual01|Total
+
011651|167
143180|223
+
Total159231|390
=======================================================================
AnalysisofBinaryChoiceModelPredictionsBasedonThreshold=.5000
16
PredictionSuccess
Sensitivity=actual1scorrectlypredicted80.717%
Specificity=actual0scorrectlypredicted69.461%
Positivepredictivevalue=predicted1sthatwereactual1s77.922%
Negativepredictivevalue=predicted0sthatwereactual0s72.956%
Correctprediction=actual1sand0scorrectlypredicted75.897%
PredictionFailure
Falsepos.fortrueneg.=actual0spredictedas1s30.539%
Falseneg.fortruepos.=actual1spredictedas0s19.283%
Falsepos.forpredictedpos.=predicted1sactual0s22.078%
Falseneg.forpredictedneg.=predicted0sactual1s27.044%
Falsepredictions=actual1sand0sincorrectlypredicted24.103%
=======================================================================
>PROC=DAP$
>ENDPROC$
>CALC;COEF1=B(1)$
>CALC;COEF2=B(2)$
>CALC;COEF3=B(3)$
>CALC;COEF4=B(4)$
>CALC;COEF5=B(5)$
>CALC;COEF6=B(6)$
>CALC;COEF7=B(7)$
>CREATE;ALFA=COEF1+COEF3*CONT+COEF4*PREC+COEF5*GEN+COEF6*EDU+COEF7*ING$
>CREATE;BETA=B(2)$
>CREATE;DAP=ALFA/BETA$
>DSTAT;RHS=DAP$
DescriptiveStatistics
Allresultsbasedonnonmissingobservations.
===============================================================================
VariableMeanStd.Dev.MinimumMaximumCases
===============================================================================
Allobservationsincurrentsample
DAP4.361799012.08017873.7905470549.20350626390
17