Sensores Remotos y Riesgo Ambiental Serie

Conference Proceedings
REMOTE SENSING, NATURAL HAZARDS

AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
28 29 July 2011
Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing,

National University of Singapore, Singapore
Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, CNRS UMR6524,
and CLERVOLC, Universit Blaise-Pascal, France
Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change, p. 3-4
Introduction
J.-C. Thouret*, S. C. Liew**, A. Gupta**,***
An international conference on remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change took place in Singapore on 2829 July 2011. It was organized by Centre for Remote Imaging,
Sensing and Processing, National University of Singapore;
Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV CNRS UMR 6524),
Universit Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand, France; and the
Working Group for Large Rivers and Climate Change, International Association of Geomorphologists (IAG).
Scientists use remote sensing to observe, analyze and
record changes on the surface of the Earth. The recent arrival
of a new generation of satellites with extreme high resolutions has increased the ability to study hazardous phenomena
of nature such as volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis and large
floods. Remote sensing is also an efficient tool for investigating the effects of anthropogenic modifications of the environment. Such modifications include climate change. Both
natural hazards and environmental modifications are common in Southeast Asia, and studies from the region formed
the core of the conference.
Forty-eight scientists from 11 countries examined remote
sensing, natural hazards and environmental change in this twoday meeting held at the National University of Singapore. In
the framework of the ICT-STIC Asia (Information and Communication Technologies) research and exchange program
sponsored by the French Foreign Office in Southeast Asia, our
project termed ImagerleRisk focused on the application of remote sensing on geological hazard studies in institutions and
universities based in Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore and
Fig. 1 2000 flood in the vicinity of Phnom Penh (Courtesy of

CRISP, A. Gupta).
Une confrence internationale Tldtection, alas, risques

naturels et changement environnemental a eu lieu Singapour les 28 et 29 juillet 2011. Cette confrence a t organis
par le Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing
(CRISP), Universit Nationalede Singapour (NUS), Singapour,
le Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans (LMV CNRS UMR 6524),
Universit Blaise Pascal, Clermont (France) et par le groupe
de travail Large Rivers and Climate Change de lAssociation Internationale des Gomorphologues (AIG).
Les chercheurs utilisent la tldtection dans le but dobserver, danalyser et denregistrer les changements qui surviennent la surface de la Terre. Le lancement rcent dune nouvelle gnration de satellites capables dacqurir une imagerie
de trs haute rsolution spatiale (submtrique) a considrablement accru les moyens danalyse des phnomnes dommageables, tels les effets des ruptions volcaniques, des sismes,
des tsunamis et des grandes inondations. La tldtection est
aussi un outil qui permet dtudier de faon synoptique et rcurrente les effets des modifications dorigine anthropique
sur lenvironnement grande et petite chelle. Ces modifications actuelles incluent le changement climatique dont els effets son redouts. Or, les effets des alas naturels et les modifications environnementales engendres sont communs en Asie
du SE; cest pourquoi les tudes conduites dans cette rgion
forment le cur de cette confrence internationale.
Quarante-huit scientifiques de onze pays ont examin la tldtection, les alas naturels, leurs effets et les changements
environnementaux durant une confrence de deux jours tenue
lUniversit Nationale de Singapour (NUS). Lorganisation de cette runion tait lun des objectifs du programme dchanges et de recherche ICT STIC Asie
(Technologies de linformation et de la communication)
promu par le Ministre des Affaires trangres en Asie
du SE. Au sein de ce programme, notre projet ImagerleRisk est consacr lapplication de la tldtection lvaluation des risques volcaniques et hydrologiques en collaboration avec quatre institutions
et universits bases en Indonsie, aux Philippines,
Singapour et en France. Seize tudiants deMaster et
doctorants issus de ces pays partenaires ainsi que de
lAustralie et de la Nouvelle Zlande ont t encourags prsenter leurs rsultats lors de la confrence
CNES, internationale, grce laide des Ambassades de
France Jakarta, Manille et Singapour. Trois agences
* PRES Clermont, Universit Blaise Pascal, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, CNRS-UMR 6524, IRD-UR163, 5 rue Kessler, 63038 Clermont-Ferrand
Cedex, France.
** CRISP, Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing, 10 Lower Kent Ridge Road, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
*** School of Earth and Enrivonmental Sciences, University of Wollongon, Australia.
J.-C. Thouret, Soo Chin Liew, Avijit Gupta
France. Sixteen graduate students from the partner countries

and from Australia and New Zealand were encouraged to present papers at this meeting. Three space agencies were represented: Centre National dEtudes Spatiales (CNES), Japan
Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), National Aeronautics
and Space administration (NASA). The four keynotes were on
(1) International charter for earthquakes in Japan (M. Nagai,
JAXA), (2) Quantifying volcanic hazard and risk (C. McGill,
Macquarie University), (3) Remote sensing of volcanic emissions in the Asia-Pacific region (S.A. Carn, Michigan Technical
University) and (4) Spatial information for analyzing changing
hydro-meteorological risk (C. Van Westen, University of Twente).
Twenty-seven oral papers and six posters formed the rest of the
presentations.
After the conference, the participants were requested to
submit an extended version of their conference abstract with
a limited number of supporting diagrams to make this publication possible. The publication thus includes the conference
programme, the keynote presentations, extended abstracts
for a substantive number of papers presented at the conference, and brief abstracts of the other papers. We would like
to acknowledge the support from CNES which made this
collection possible. We also thank Kenix Koh Poh Loo and
Frdrique Van Celst for organizing and preparing conference-related publications.
The meeting explored possible technical collaboration between institutions and the strengthening of such programs. It
is hoped that similar meetings will take place in the future.
This is Laboratory of Excellence Clervolc contribution n5.
spatiales taient reprsentes : le Centre National dEtudes

Spatiales (CNES), lagence dexploration arospatiale du
Japon (JAXA) et la National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Quatre exposs centraux ont t livrs sur les
sujets suivants: (1) Charte internationale pour ltude des
sismes au Japon (M. Nagai, Jaxa, Japon et Thailande),(2)
Quantifier lala et le risque volcanique (C. Magill, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australie), (3) La tldtection
des missions volcaniques dans la rgion du Pacifique et de
lAsie du SE (S. Carn, Michigan Technical University, USA),
et (4) Linformation spatiale pour lanalyse des modifications des risques hydro-mtorologiques (C. Van Westen,
University of Twente, Pays Bas). En outre, vingt-sept exposs
oraux et six posters ont t prsents durant la confrence.
la suite de la confrence, les participants ont t pris
de soumettre une version tendue de leur rsum donn lors
de la confrence avec un nombre limit dillustrations, afin
de rendre la publication dun ouvrage possible. La publication de ces Actes de la Confrence rassemble ainsi le programme de la confrence, les prsentations centrales, les rsums tendus dun certain ombre darticles prsents lors de
la confrence et un bref rsum des autres articles. Nous voudrions remercier le CNES pour son soutien en faveur de la
publication de ces Actes. Nous remercions galement Kenix
Koh Poh Loh (Singapour) et Frdrique Van Celst (Clermont) qui ont bien voulu organiser puis prparer les publications issues de cette confrence.
La confrence internationale a enfin explor les possibilits de coopration technique entre les institutions et cherch renforcer de tels programmes. Les participants ont mis
le vu que des confrences similaires prennent place en Asie
du SE dans lavenir proche.
Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change
Welcome address
L. K. Kwoh*
CRISP is honoured to have this opportunity to co-host the

Conference with Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Universite
Blaise Pascal, and the Working Group for Large Rivers and
Climate Change, International Association of Geomorphologists. The two key areas of discussions of this conference are
Natural Hazards and Environmental Change. The Asia-Pacific is, as we all know, is a disaster-prone region. In view of
the recent devastating earthquakes and tsunamis in Japan,
and the earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, the relevance of these topics is beyond question. Singapore, fortunately, is outside the major natural disaster zones. Nevertheless,
we still occasionally suffer from flash floods due to extreme
rainfalls and Singapore is not immune from the potential effects of global climate change.
Satellite remote sensing plays a useful role in disaster monitoring and management. At CRISP, we operate a satellite
ground receiving station that receives satellite data from various satellites, ranging from the low and medium resolution
environmental satellites such as MODIS to high resolution satellites which include SPOT, Ikonos, GeoEye, and WorldView-1 and 2. We have a research team that conducts research
in various aspects of earth observation.
We collaborate with the National Environment Agency in
monitoring the regional fires using a combination of low and
high resolution satellites. During the December 2004 Indian
Ocean Tsunami, satellite images of the affected areas received
by CRISP were sent to the Singapore humanitarian forces for
planning and execution of relief and rescue efforts. In fact,
whenever a disaster event occurred in the region, we would
try our best to acquire satellite images of the affected areas.
These images were promptly dispatched to our counterpart in
the disaster area to aid in the relief and rescue operations. The
images are also posted on CRISP web site for free access.
* Director, CRISP, National University of Singapore.
CRISPs scientists actively participate in international

collaborative projects. For example, CRISP is a partner in
the Imagerisk project of STIC Asia. Together with scientists
from France, Indonesia and Philippines, satellite images are
used in risk mapping of regions around volcanoes. CRISP
also participates as a data analysis node of Sentinel Asia, an
initiative led by the APRSAF (Asia-Pacific Regional Space
Agency Forum), of which JAXA plays a major leading role,
to support disaster management activity in the Asia-Pacific
region using satellites data. The first keynote speaker of this
morning session will elaborate on this topic.
Despite the small group we have today, I am delighted that
we have representations from 19 organizations and 11 countries, including three space agencies, JAXA, CNES and
NASA, as well as participants from universities and agencies in France, United States, Indonesia, the Philippines,
Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, Netherland, and of course,
Singapore. I believe we are all here with the same goal, and
that is, to exchange experiences and to discuss the results of
our study in remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change. Looking ahead, I hope this conference will
generate increased interest in environmental change and
bring about improved strategies for the mitigation of natural disasters.
I sincerely thank our conveners Prof Jean-Claude Thouret,
Dr Avijit Gupta and Dr Liew in spearheading this Conference and the organizing committee who have worked hard to
make this event possible. The kind supports from STIC
Asia, CNES and the French Embassies in Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines are gratefully acknowledged. Last
but not least, I thank all participants for your contribution.
Many among you have travelled from afar to share your
experiences and knowledge.
International charter for earthquake in Japan

M. Nagai*
Short abstract: On the 11th March 2011, the huge earthquake of M9.0 occurred offshore of Tohoku area of which epicenter was 500km
long and 200km wide in the Pacific Ocean. Accordingly the damaged areas were also 500km long including a part of Hokkaido to Tokyo.
The International Charter is activated just after the earthquake. The International Charter aims at providing a unified system of space
data acquisition and delivery to those affected by natural or man-made disasters through Authorized Users. The International Charter is
activated following a disaster and partner agencies immediately start sharing satellite information and data on the disaster. Apart from
JAXA, ESA, USGS, CNES, DLR, CSA, ISRO, CNSA, KARI, GISTDA, and NSPO are among the agencies actively involved in helping
for disaster relief operations.
Keywords: earthquake, tsunami, disaster management, international charter, sentinel Asia.
Introduction
On the 11th March 2011, the huge earthquake of M9.0 occurred offshore of Tohoku area of which epicenter was 500 km
long and 200 km wide in the Pacific Ocean. Accordingly the
damaged areas were also 500 km long including a part of
Hokkaido to Tokyo. The huge earthquake triggered tsunami
waves that propagated westward toward the Japan coastline
and eastward across the Pacific Ocean. Coastal areas within
Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures experienced waves
of over 5 m, with some areas above 10 m, and in localized
areas more than 15 m. There are over 15,000 confirmed
deaths, with approximately 4,000 people missing in September 2011. Over 440,000 people have been displaced from their
homes by the earthquake, tsunami, and radiation alert.
Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) had been playing a
critical role in helping recovery efforts in Japan for the International Charter and Sentinel Asia. The Cabinet Office of
Japan had activated the International Charter and the Charter has appointed Geoinformatics Center of AIT as project
manager of this disaster for the International Charter on Space
Organization
JAXA
Satellite
Organization
ALOS
Satellite
LANDSAT-5,7
USGS
NSPO/NARL
FORMOSAT-2
GISTDA
THEOS
IKONOS-2
ISRO
Cartosat-2
GeoEye-1
KARI
KOMPSAT-2
QuickBird-2
DLR
RapidEye
WorldView-1,2
TerraSAR-X
Tab. 1 List of satellites.
CNSA
EO-1
HJ
and Major disasters. International space organizations were

working along with AIT to provide maps and satellite images
for rescue and relief operations. The International Charter was
activated following a disaster and partner agencies immediately start sharing satellite information and data on the disaster.
Apart from JAXA, ESA, USGS, CNES, DLR, CSA, ISRO,
CNSA, KARI, GISTDA, and NSPO are among the agencies
actively involved in helping for disaster relief operations.
AIT is also acting as a Principal Data Analysis Node (PDAN) of Sentinel Asia that is a coordinator of data analysis
in Sentinel Asia activity. Table 1 shows the list of satellites,
which was kindly provided for the disaster. The blue color
was provided from Sentinel Asia, the bright yellow was provided from the International Charter, and the right green is
provided by bilateral agreement.
International Charter for Earthquake

in Japan
Emergency satellite observation and rapid analysis is

being coordinated by AIT along with major international
space agencies, United Nations,
research institutions, universities,
Organization
Satellite
and commercial sectors to provide
CNES
SPOT-4,5
critical support in the recovery operations. Satellite images are helpCSA
Radarsat-1,2
ing detect changes in the landESA
ENVISAT
forms, particularly in the coastline
COSMOin North West Japan. Using change
ASI
SkyMed
detection techniques, where the
satellite image before the disaster is
DEIMOS
DEIMOS-1
compared with the satellite image
RSOCOSMOS RESURS-DK
after the disaster, the difference in
landforms becomes very apparent.
EIAST
DubaiSat-1
New threats are identified and new
mapping helps guide rescue and re-
* Satellite Application and Promotion Center (SAPC), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Tsukuba Space Center, 2-1-1 Sengen, Tsukubashi, Ibaraki-ken, 305-8505, Japan.
M. Nagai
Date
Satellites
12 Mar.
ALOS(AV2, PSM), FORMOSAT-2, THEOS, IKONOS, WorldView-2, GeoEye-1, RapidEye, LANDSAT-7, SPOT-5, TerraSARX, Radarsat_
13 Mar.
ALOS(PSR), FORMOSAT-2, THEOS, WorldView-2, RapidEye, EO-1, LANDSAT-5, SPOT-5, TerraSAR-X_
14 Mar.
ALOS(AV2, PSR), FORMOSAT-2, Cartosat-2, KOMPSAT-2, GeoEye-1, RapidEye, SPOT-5, HJ_
15 Mar.
FORMOSAT-2, SPOT-4, DubaiSat-1_
16 Mar.
ALOS(AV2,PSR), FORMOSAT-2, QuickBird-2_
17 Mar.
ALOS(AV2), FORMOSAT-2, SPOT-5_
18 Mar.
ALOS(PSR), FORMOSAT-2, EO-1, SPOT-5, DEIMOS-1_
19 Mar.
ALOS(AV2), FORMOSAT-2, KOMPSAT-2, WorldView-2, GeoEye-1, RESURS-DK
20 Mar.
ALOS(AV2, PSR), FORMOSAT-2, IKONOS, WorldView-2, LANDSAT-5, RESURS-DK
Tab. 2 List of emergency observations.
lief teams to reach the destination. Since the devastation

caused by the earthquake and tsunami is huge, new maps
have to create in the affected areas. This is where satellite imagery assumes critical importance. Table 2 shows the list of
emergency observations and provided satellite data for the
first 10 days after the disaster. Figure 1 and Figure 2 was
emergency mapping products created by Geoinformatics
Center of AIT. Figure 1 shows the inundated areas due to the
Tsunami by RADARSAT-2 (RADARSAT-2 Data and Products MacDONALD, DETTWILER AND ASSOCIATES
LTD. (2011) All Rights Reserved and RADARSAT is an
official mark of the Canadian Space Agency) and World
View multi spectral image ( USGS), which was acquired
on 12 March, 2011. The inundated area can be seen in red
color patches. It was equal to approximately 71 square km
area of extent. Figure 2 shows Tsunami affected area near the
Fig. 1 Tsunami inundated area.
International Charter for Earthquake in Japan
Fig. 2 Sendai airport area.
Sendai Airport from IKONOS Panchromatic image ( USGS)

acquired on 12 March 2011.
Sentinel Asia
Sentinel Asia is conducting emergency observation by earth
observation satellites in case of major disasters. Currently participating satellites are expected to be ALOS (JAXA), IRS
(ISRO), THEOS (GISTDA), KOMPSAT (KARI) and FORMOSAT (NARL), which are called DPN (Data Provider
Node). Those agencies accept observation requests for major
disasters in the Asia-Pacific region from ADRC member organizations and representative organizations of JPT (Joint Project Team) members. On the other hand, DAN (Data Analysis
Node) analyzes the satellite data provided by DPN, makes
value added product and discloses the result through the Sen-
M. Nagai
tinel Asia System within the domestic legislation of each DAN

permits. AIT (Asian Institute of Technology) coordinates data
analysis as a P-DAN (Principal Data Analysis Node).
DAN (Data Analysis Node) is the Node for the data analysis. DPN provide its own satellite data to the DAN and data
policy of each DPN is decided by each DPN. DAN member
implements the following tasks; to analyze the satellite data
provided by DPN, to make value added product, and to disclose the result through the Sentinel Asia System within the
domestic legislation of each DAN permits. For creating
value added products, data should be aware of various DPN
satellite data. It is very important to have analysis experience in handling DPN satellite data and DAN needs to
prepare resources to analyze satellite data. Information integration is key for making value-added products to have
various other data helpful for the given disaster. Validation
of products is needed to carryout ground verification as soon
as possible before product distribution. Reliability has to be
produced within limited time.
Conclusion
On March 11, 2011, the massive earthquake was occurred
near the east cost of Honshu, Japan. It caused a massive
Tsunami with widespread destruction of human live and
properties. Figure 3 shows the coverage of satellite images
acquired by different satellites after 5 days of the disaster.
The emergency response of space agencies of the International Charter and Sentinel Asia was really quick and very
effective to understand damages in the recovery operations.
More than 6,000 images had been provided including programmed and archived images in the International Charter
and Sentinel Asia. In addition, more than 150 analyzed maps
had been created.
Finally, I would like to express my condolence to those victims and their family lost by Japans Earthquake on 11 March
2011. Also, I thank many friends from foreign countries and
regions to have sent me kind words to encourage me as well
as Japanese people.
Fig. 3 Coverage of emergency observation.
10
The contribution of space based observations

to understanding and addressing geohazards:
a CNES perspective
S. Hosford*
Short abstract: Earth observation data acquired by diverse satellites has been used over many years to address the important study area
of geohazards. Many methods have been developed that provide key information in the estimation and monitoring of hazard and the
study of geohazard processes. Over the next ten to fifteen years new opportunities will arise in this domain with access to huge new
datasets provided on a free and open basis. A huge challenge lies ahead for the international geohazards science community to make
the most of this data : improved international coordination is undoubtedly required to face this challenge.
Keywords: geohazards, satellites, future missions.
Introduction
Current missions and methods
Over the past twenty years with the significant development of remote sensing, many actors have addressed the
theme of geohazards. The space data used have ranged from
radar and optical remote sensing imagery to more recent
gravity field or ionospheric perturbation data. Over this period, the CNES has accompanied the French scientific community in the development of missions, but also in space data
analysis with the ultimate aim of better understanding geohazard processes. This paper will review some of this work
and propose areas where space agencies can, working hand in
hand with their land based counterparts, help to move forward
research on this important theme.
While geological hazards have rarely been the primary application of space missions, many satellites provide useful
data for the study of earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides.
High resolution optical imagery (e.g. SPOT 5) is currently
used to provide source geometry after major earthquakes
and work is currently underway on integrating systematic
interferometric SAR displacement measurements in the monitoring of high risk faults. In these cases, the generally high
spatial coverage of InSAR data provides a unique view of
local displacement. This, coupled with in situ data from seismic networks and GPS, gives an unprecedented insight into
the way in which many earthquakes take place. Today, measuring displacements for all types of geohazard is a potentially major application of remote sensing imagery unfortunately the supply of such imagery is unable to match the wide
range of demand. While the solid Earth research community internationally remains dispersed, various opportunities (GMES
in Europe or the GEO geohazard Supersites initiative internationally) could potentially improve this situation in the
coming years.
With the development of remote sensing over the past twenty five years, scientists have developed many interesting ways
to extract information from satellite data useful in the study of
geohazard processes. These range from deriving ground displacement data in different ways, to following the effects in the
ionosphere of the displacement of large masses of water by
earthquakes resulting in Tsunami. In this paper a review of
some of these techniques will be presented.
Ground displacement
Different methods that can be used to derive quantitative
ground displacement maps from satellite data are described
below:
Historic events. In the case of earthquakes, these often leave
geomorphological markers (stream channels, terraces) that can,
in certain instances, be used to derive quantitative estimations
of displacements induced by these events. This type of interpretation (Klinger et al., 2011), of optical satellite imagery most
frequently, is particularly effective in dry areas where these
markers have remained unaffected by erosion processes and are
not hidden by vegetation. Under these ideal circumstances and
with a high resolution image (>5 m) it is possible to estimate
displacements of less than a metre. While these ideal conditions
allow more accurate quantitative estimations, geomorphological markers are used routinely in this way to obtain key information in seismotectonic studies across the world.
Optical image correlation. When the event is recent and
archive imagery of the zone affected is available for the period before the event, an image acquired subsequently to the
event can be used, under certain circumstances, to measure
the ground displacement. Depending on the spatial resolu-
* French Space Agency CNES, 18 avenue Edouard Belin, 31000 Toulouse, France.
S. Hosford
tion of the images used, displacements up to several 10s of

centimeters can be measured (Delacourt et al., 2007). This
is true largely regardless of the type of event that has induced the ground displacement, whether it be an earthquake,
volcanic eruption, or landslide, for example. The COSI-Corr
[1] package is currently the most widely used and freely
available package to apply these methods.
Differential Interferometric SAR. The DInSAR technique
and its various close relatives (Permanent Scatterer, SBAS etc.)
emerged in the mid 90s (Massonet et al., 1993) as a revolutionary new technique based on processing of at least two SAR images spanning a period within which some ground displacement
has occurred. Centimetre or smaller displacements can be measured (a fraction of the wavelength of the SAR imager used C,
L or X band) and large area coverage products can be generated
in a near-automated. These can provide critical information now
used in earthquake source modeling as well as to derive displacement over time for landslide and volcanic hazard assessment. Due to their capacity to measure even smaller movements,
PS InSAR and other related techniques exploiting large stacks of
SAR images are now being used to investigate previously unidentified seismic phenomena such as silent earthquakes. These
techniques are providing new insight into the seismic cycle. The
ROI_PAC [2] processing package is freely available for academic use to apply some of these methods.
Given the sensitivity of the optical and SAR image processing techniques described, these methods complement each
other. When studying earthquakes, for example, large near-field
displacements (too large for InSAR which loses coherence) can
be mapped using optical data and smaller displacement further
from the surface rupture is captured by InSAR.
High resolution DEMs

Various types of image data can be used to derive high resolution DEM products by classic photogrammetry or SAR interferometric techniques. Those providing the highest spatial
resolution coupled with the best height accuracy are produced, in the optical domain by data from the HRS instrument
on board the SPOT 5 satellite and, in the radar domain, by the
recent TanDEM-X and Cosmo-Skymed missions.
Geological mapping
High spatial and spectral resolution data from the Hyperion
and ASTER missions are most commonly used for geological
mapping. As was mentioned previously geomorphological mapping can be carried out with standard multispectral imagery such
as that provided by the SPOT series, Landsat and the high resolution commercial data providers.
Monitoring volcanic eruptions and

ash clouds
During the recent volcanic eruptions in Iceland and Chile involving disruption to commercial air transport, new data sources
were tested for measuring volcanic plumes including thermal
data (Meteo satellites, Aster) and cloud and SO2 data (IASI)
Exotic datasets
Among new research areas, two types of data stand out for
geohazard studies: time varying gravity data and ionospheric
parameters. Data from the GRACE gravity mission have been
shown to provide unique information on mass redistribution
following large (> magnitude 8) earthquakes (Panet et al.,
2007). While this limits their use somewhat in the short term,
future time-varying gravity missions should provide better resolution allowing the study of smaller events. Monitoring of the
state of the ionosphere has proven to be a new domain of interest for some physicists working on solid Earth processes such
as earthquakes and tsunami. While the Demeter mission aimed
at finding precursor signals of seismic and volcanic activity,
monitoring of the Total Electron Content of the lower iono-
Fig. 1 Continuous wavelet analysis coefficients at 500 km scale of the geoid difference between 2005 and 2004, stacked over
9 months (right panel), and of the geoid difference between 2004 and 2003, stacked over 9 months (left panel). Image adapted from
Panet et al. (2007) with the author's consent.
12
The contribution of space based observations to understanding and addressing geohazards
sphere using GPS tomography and airglow imaging (Makela et

al., 2011) has been shown to provide a potentially interesting
mirror of seismic waves generated by earthquakes. This includes possible very long period events as reported recently following the Tohoku Great Japanese earthquake and tsunami.
Future missions
Over the next decade many new earth observing satellites
with significant interest for the solid Earth community will
be launched. These include :
Pleiades. The French component of the italo-French ORFEO
constellation (comprising of Pleiades and Cosmo-Skymed
satellites), the first Pleiades satellite is currently scheduled
for launch from Kourou in December 2011. This pair of
satellites (Pleiades-2 scheduled for spring 2013) will ultimately provide a 24 hrs revisit at any point on the globe with
high resolution panchromatic (70 cm) and multi-spectral
(2.8 m) imagery. The Pleiades satellites are highly agile and
will be able to acquire up to three images of the same scene
in one pass. This will open the way to the development of
high resolution 3-D products potentially very useful in natural hazard applications [3].
Sentinel-2. The second satellite developed in the context
of the space component of Europes Global Monitoring for
Environment and Security programme (GMES), Sentinel-2
will provide 10 m resolution multi-spectral imagery of all
land-surfaces with a temporal revisit of around 5 days at the
equator. All land surfaces will be systematically acquired
and data will be made available under a Free and Opendata policy. Sentinel-2 will be launched in 2013 [4].
Sentinel-1. Sentinel-1 will provide continuity of C-band
SAR imagery following on from the ERS and ENVISAT
series of missions. With a revist of several days once the satellite pair are launched, this mission will be of particular benefit
for ground displacement studies based on the SAR Interferometry technique. Sentinel-1 will be launched in 2013 [5].
In addition to these missions many other private or stateowned satellite systems imaging our planet in the visible, infrared and microwave part of the spectrum are planned for
launch in the next 5 to 7 years. Other missions which can
greatly contribute to our understanding of geohazard processes can also be cited: gravity field missions such as Grace Follow-on currently under development by USA/Germany; or
the Chinese Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite which is a
follow on to the Demeter mission developed by the Chinese
Earthquake Administration.
Conclusion
This paper has presented a very brief review of data and
methods currently used in the study of geohazards. It has high-
lighted the utility of the information it is possible to extract

from satellite data whether it be satellite imagery or more exotic data types such as gravity data or ionospheric parameters. The information described must be used in conjunction
with ground based monitoring and measurement systems in
order to derive the most complete and useful monitoring system possible for a given hazard area.
In the next ten to fifteen years many new satellite systems
are to be launched by diverse actors. In order to fully harness
the potential that this data could bring to improving our collective understanding of various geohazard processes, it may
be useful to improve coordination between science teams in
order to define high priority areas where data should be acquired
and avoid duplicating effort in producing information products.
Currently, several potential frameworks exist to achieve this including GEO geohazard Supersites initiative internationally or
the GMES programme within Europe.
References
Klinger Y., Etchebes M., Tapponnier P., Narteau C. (2011)
Characteristic slip for five great earthquakes along the Fuyun
fault in China. Nature Geoscience 4, 389-392, DOI:10.1038/
ngeo 1158, 2011.
Delacourt C., Allemand P., Berthier E., Raucoules D., Casson B.,
Grandjean P., Pambrun C. and Varel E. (2007) Remotesensing techniques for analysing landslide kinematics: a review.
Bulletin de la Societe Geologique de France 178, 2, p. 89-100,
DOI: 10.2113/gssgfbull.178.2.89.
Makela J.J., Lognonn P., Hbert H., Gehrels T., Rolland L., Allgeyer S., Kherani A., Occhipinti O., Astafyeva E., Coisson P.,
Loevenbruck A., Clvd E., Kelley M.C., Lamouroux J.
(2011) Imaging and modeling the ionospheric airglow response
over Hawaii to the tsunami generated by the Tohoku Earthquake
of 11 March 2011. Geophysical Research Letters 38, L00G02,
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL047860.
Massonnet, D., M. Rossi, C. Carmona, F. Adragna, G. Peltzer,
K. Feigl and T. Rabaute (1993) The displacement field of the
Landers earthquake mapped by radar interferometry. Nature
364, 138-142.
Panet I., Mikhailov V., Diament M., Pollitz F., King G., de
Viron O., Holschneider M., Biancale R., Lemoine J.M.
(2007) Co-seismic and post-seismic signatures of the Sumatra
December 2004 and March 2005 earthquakes in GRACE satellite gravity, Geophysical Journal International 171, 1, 177-190,
DOI:10.1111/ j.1365- 246X.2007. 03525 .x.
[1] http://www.tectonics.caltech.edu/slip_history/spot_coseis/download_software.html
[2] http://www.cnes.fr/web/CNES-en/3236-pleiades.php
[3] http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEMM4T4KXMF_LPgmes_0.html
[4] http://www.esa.int/esaLP/SEMBRS4KXMF_LPgmes_0.html
[5] http://www.roipac.org/
13
The International charter for disaster mitigation:

Participation by ASTER project
M. Abrams*, K. Duda*
Abstract: The International Charter (Space and Major Disasters)
has been designed to provide a unified system of space data acquisition and delivery of products to those affected by natural and
man-made disasters. The Charter operates on a volunteer, best-efforts basis by the member organizations. There are currently
many Space Agencies and national or international space system
operators, that are members of the Charter. The total is 40+ user
organizations from 36 countries. Each member agency has pledged resources to support the articles of the Charter. The goal is to
mitigate the effects of disasters on human life and property. The
only agencies authorized to activate the services of the Charter are
the authorized users. An authorized user is a civil protection, rescue, defense or security body from the country of a Charter member. A single phone call activates the Charter and mobilizes the
space and associated ground resources of the member agencies to
obtain data and information on a disaster event. Data are proces-
sed into images and maps by a Value Added Reseller, and the data
are delivered to the end user.
In the United States, The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are Authorized
Users. NASA responds to internal requests from these two agencies to acquire data from its resources. ASTER is one of the instruments frequently asked to provide data on behalf of the US
Authorized Users.
For the first 11 months of 2010, there have been 48 activations of
the Charter. Over half of these have been for flood events, such as
the August flooding in Pakistan. Other events that have resulted in
activating the Charter include earthquakes, snow, cyclones, volcanic eruptions, landslides and tsunamis. This presentation will describe the details of how the Charter operates, will provide numerous
illustrations of the types of products provided to end users, and will
discuss ASTERs participation in the Charters activations.
Remote sensing of earthquake effects following

the 2010 Mw 7.1 and 2011 Mw 6.3 events
in Canterbury, New Zealand
S. Levick**
Abstract: Spatial data are central to understanding, monitoring,
and responding to natural hazards events. Remote sensing plays
a pivotal role in obtaining spatial data over large areas at multiple time intervals, and is widely used in earthquake research
and disaster management. Satellite imagery provides an excellent baseline for mapping geological structures and identifying
active faults. High-resolution multispectral imagery, LiDAR
(light-detection and ranging) and InSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar) enable the precise measurement of earth
surface deformation following seismic events, as well as associated effects such as landslides, liquefaction and structural damage. Developing better understanding of the earths structure
*NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, United States.

**GNS Science, New Zealand.
and dynamics places us in stronger position to understand future seismic risk.

We utilized a broad range of passive and active remote sensing
techniques to better understand the nature of the 2010 Mw 7.1
and 2011 Mw 6.3 seismic events in Canterbury, New Zealand,
and monitor their associated effects. Both events were characterised by substantial soil liquefaction, and the 2011 Mw 6.3 event
caused major structural damage to the city of Christchurch and
triggered landslips in the adjacent hills. Here we present our results on mapping and quantifying these effects through the object-based fusion and analysis of high resolution aerial photography, satellite imagery, LiDAR and X-band SAR.
Understanding the fatal 2006 dike breaching

of Mayon Volcano using high-resolution imageries
R. Eco*, A.M.F. Lagmay*, E. Paguican**
Short abstract: Heavy rains delivered by supertyphoon Durian from 29-30 November 2006 remobilized volcanic debris on the southern and eastern slopes of Mayon Volcano, generating devastating lahars that caused severe loss of life and property in downstream
communities. Floods and lahars from the intense rainfall overtopped river bends, breaching six dikes through which they created new
paths, buried downstream communities in thick, widespread deposits, and caused most of the 1,266 fatalities. Using high-resolution
SPOT imageries provided by CRISP through the IMAGERLERISK/STIC ASIA project, we determine places of dike breaching and the
lahar outbreak deposits. Barangays (villages) Maipon and Tandarora in Guinobatan municipality, Sua in Camalig municipality, Budiao
and Busay in Daraga municipality, Pawa and Padang in Legaspi City and San Antonio in Sto. Domingo municipality experienced heavy
casualties. These are the same places where dike breaching occurred. Lessons learned from this study could be used to mitigate future
lahar hazards at Mayon Volcano.
Keywords: Mayon volcano, lahar, dike breaching, supertyphoon Durian, SPOT 5.
Introduction
Methods
Supertyphoon Durian, packing maximum sustained winds

of 190 km/hr and gusts as high as 230 km/hr, made landfall in
the eastern coast of Luzon island, Philippines on 29 November 2006. It brought 495.8 mm of rain over a period of 36 hours
to Albay province, where Mayon volcano is located (PAGASA,
2006). The amount of rainfall was more than enough to
remobilize volcanic debris into lahar flows as it exceeded
the initiation threshold set for Mayon lahars (Rodolfo and
Arguden, 1991) and for debris flows worldwide (Balducci,
2007). This resulted in severe loss of life and property, with
1,266 people killed, including 740 that were missing and presumed dead (Rabonza, 2006), and incurring PhP 1.13 billion
worth of damages in agriculture, aquaculture and infrastructure (PHIVOLCS, 2008).
The amount of lahar generated by this event is by far the
largest in terms of their volumes, runout lengths and devastative effects (Paguican et al., 2009). Only the 1825 lahar
event which buried the town of Cagsawa, 11 km southeast
of Mayons summit (Ramos-Villarta, 1985), which left
1,500 people dead (Task Group for the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction, 1990), comes close to the
magnitude of fatalities and destruction caused by the 2006
disaster.
This study examines the lahar deposits left in the wake of
supertyphoon Durian using high-resolution SPOT 5 imageries. This work builds on the paper published by Paguican et
al. (2009) where they described in detail and analyzed the
lahar deposits left by Durian.
Pre- and post-disaster SPOT 5 imageries dated 17 February 2003 and 12 December 2006, were provided by the Manila Observatory and the Center for Remote Imaging, Sensing
and Processing (CRISP), through the IMAGERLERISK /
STIC ASIA project, respectively. These imageries were interpreted to examine the extent of lahar flows that affected
the downstream areas of Mayon volcano.
Dikes, drainage and lahar deposits were outlined manually from the satellite imageries. Unsupervised classification
of the lahars was not possible because of similarities of their
appearance with flooded crop lands. Manual delineation of
the lahars was based on their association with channels and
platform distribution.
Results
Flood prone areas characterize the lower and gentler slopes
of Mayon volcano. These areas, located in between drainage
channels appear to be rice and coconut plantations. Imageries
taken in the aftermath of typhoon Durian show heavily inundated croplands. Because the spectral reflectance of water in
flooded areas is nearly the same as those of the lahar deposits,
they can easily be mistaken as the same material. The distinction between the lahar fields and croplands was assessed
through examination of the 2003 SPOT 5 imagery and ground
validation performed by Paguican et al (2009).
The interpreted post-disaster SPOT 5 imagery shows the radial distribution of channels typically terminating into fan-sha-
* National Institute of Geological Sciences, College of Science, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines.
**Clermont Universit, Universit Blaise-Pascal, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, BP 10448, F-63000 Clermont-Ferrand.
R. Eco, A.M.F. Lagnay, E. Paguican
pre - 30 November 2006 stream flow
post - 30 November 2006 lahar flow
dyke
Fig. 1 Left to right clockwise: Municipalities of Basud, Guinobatan, Camalig, Daraga, Padang, and Bongga. Stream flows prior to
the November 2006 lahar flows.
ped structures at the lower slopes of Mayons edifice from

about 245 to 100 m elevation to sea level at gradients of 5.52.0. New channels can be observed to have formed splaying
from existing channels. These freshly developed channels acted
as alternative pathways of lahars generated on 30 November
2006. Drainage along the Mabinit, Padang, Lidong and Basud
channels reached the coastline of Albay Gulf.
Large clusters of human settlements are clearly visible
around the lower slopes of Mayon volcano, approximately
8-14 km from the summit. Due to their proximity to the volcano, most of these villages and towns were inundated by lahars, as can be seen in the post-disaster imagery. In addition,
the manner by which the dikes were constructed suggests
that the behavior of lahars may have been underestimated,
as seen from their locations vis-a-vis the path generated by
the lahar flows.
Discussion
Field investigation by Paguican et al (2009) revealed breached sections in several of the dikes around Mayon. In Sua,
for example, the breach was about 20 m wide, forming a
channel 50 m wide and 7 m deep. Meanwhile at Padang, they
found that an 80 m wide and 15 m deep channel was cut
through rice paddies and coconut groves. Based on the timing of the arrival of debris flows at the communities, they
18
surmised that the dikes at the southern and eastern sectors of

Mayon were breached at about 1400H, several hours after
the first lahars were initiated (Paguican et al, 2009).
Based on these observations, we believe that the lahars formed during typhoon Durian were initially confined in existing
diked river channels and later breached the dikes upon swelling of the river. Perhaps like the erosive lahars observed in
Pinatubo, debris flows that overtopped the banks of channels
along river bends, may have eroded the dikes from its outer
side then back towards the river channel until that section of
the dike was breached. The opening thus created a pathway
for debris flows to cut through fields and overrun settlements. Since the timing of the lahar inundation of all the villages occurred mostly at the same time in the afternoon of
30 November, the extreme swelling of the rivers channels
and eventual breaching of dikes must have also occurred
just before this period.
Conclusion
With the intensity and duration of rainfall brought by
supertyphoon Durian to Albay province on 30 November
2006 exceeding the initiation threshold for Mayon lahars
and debris flows worldwide, volcanic sediments around
Mayon volcano were remobilized into lahars, causing severe damage and fatalities to communities around the volcano.
Understanding the fatal 2006 dike breaching of Mayou Volcano using high-resolution imageries
Clearly visible from the satellite imageries are the new pathways generated by these lahar flows, resulting in overtopped
river bends, breached dikes and inundated communities and
plantations. It is apparent that the infrastructures constructed
to protect the populace around Mayon were unable to withstand an extreme event such as this. In addition, this event
serves to illustrate the urgency by which concerned authorities must formulate better and more effective solutions to
mitigate these kinds of disasters. But given the sheer number of other potential hazards that threaten the people
around Mayon, more comprehensive actions may be needed, such as the gradual movement of development and
settlement away from the slopes of Mayon volcano.
References
Arboleda R, Martinez M (1996) 1992 lahars in the Pasig-Potrero River system. In: Newhall C., Punongbayan R. (eds), Fire and
mud: eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Quezon City, p. 10451052.
Arguden A.T., Rodolfo K.S. (1990) Sedimentologic and dynamic differences between hot and cold laharic debris flows of
Mayon Volcano, Philippines. Geological Society of America
Bulletin 102, 865-876.
Balducci V. (2007) Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides. http://rainfallthresholds.irpi.cnr.it/credit.htm. Accessed
26 September 2011.
PAGASA (2006) Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Rainfall archive. Data record.
Paguican E.M.R., Lagmay A.M.F., Rodolfo K.S., Rodolfo R.S.,
Tengonciang A.M.P., Lapus M.R., Baliatan E.G., Obille E.C.
Jr. (2009) Extreme Rainfall-induced lahars and dike-breaching, 30 November 2006, Mayon Volcano, Philippines. Bulletin
of Volcanology 71, 8, 845-857.
PHIVOLCS (2008) The 30 November 2006 Supertyphoon Reming Lahars of Mayon Volcano, Philippines. http://ypws.tao-pilipinas.org/downloads/2008%20YP/lectures/scientific%20assessment.pdf. Accessed 26 September 2011.
Rabonza G (2006) Philippines: NDCC media update-Typhoon
Reming (Durian). Technical Report. Office of Civil Defense.
Ramos-Villarta S., Corpuz E., Newhall C. (1985) Eruptive history of Mayon volcano, Philippines. Philippine Journal of Volcanology 2, 1-35.
Rodolfo K. (1989) Origin and early evolution of lahar channel at
Mabinit, Mayon Volcano, Philippines. Philippine Journal of Volcanology 2, 1-35.
Rodolfo K., Arguden A. (1991) Rain-lahar generation and sediment-delivery systems at Mayon Volcano, Philippines. In: Fisher
R., Smith G. (eds), Sedimentation in volcanic settings. Society of
Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists Special Publication,
45, p. 71-87.
Rodolfo K., Umbal J., Alonso R., Remotigue C., Melosantos M.,
Salvador J., Evangelista D., Miller Y. (1996) Two years of lahars on the western flank of Mount Pinatubo: initiation, flow processes, deposits, and attendant geomorphic and hydraulic changes.
In: Newhall C., Punongbayan R. (eds), Fire and mud: eruptions
and lahars of Mount Pinatubo. Philippine Inst Volcanol Seismol,
Quezon City, p. 989-1013.
Smith G.A., Lowe D.R. (1991) Lahars: Volcano-hydrologic events
and deposition in the debris flow-hyperconcentrated flow continuum. In: Fisher R.V., Smith G. (eds), Sedimentation in Volcanic
Settings. Society of Economic Paleontologists and Mineralogists
Special Publication, 45, p. 59-70.
Task Group for the International Decade of Natural Disaster
Reduction (1990) Report. Bulletin of Volconalogical Society
of Japan Ser. 2, 35, 80-95.
Tungol N., Regalado M. (1996) Rainfall, acoustic flow monitor
records, and observed lahars of the Sacobia River in 1992. In:
Newhall C., Punongbayan R. (eds), Fire and mud: eruptions and
lahars of Mount Pinatubo. University of Washington Press,
Seattle, p. 1045-1052.
Umbal J.V., Rodolfo K.S. (1996) The 1991 lahars of southwestern
Mount Pinatubo. Philippines and the evolution of a lahar-dammed
lake: p. 951970. In: Newhall C., Punongbayan R. (eds), Fire and
mud: eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo. Philippine Institute
of Volcanology and Seismology, Quezon City, p. 1045-1052.
Van Westen C.J., Daag A.S. (2005) Analyzing the relationship
between rainfall characteristics and lahar activity at Mount
Pinatubo, Philippines. Earth Surface Processes and Landform
30, 1663-1674.
19
Geology, tectonics, and the 2002-2003 eruption

of the Semeru volcano, Indonesia: Interpreted
from high-spatial resolution satellite imagery
A. Solikhin*, J.-C. Thouret**, A.J.L. Harris**, A. Gupta***, S.C. Liew****
Short abstract: We used high-spatial resolution images of Semeru volcano in Java, Indonesia in order to analyse its structures, map the
deposits, and record the effects of the 2002-2003 eruption. A structural map, based on two DEMs and four optical satellite images,
encompasses four groups of faults. The Semeru composite cone is located on and buttressed against the Mahameru edifice at the head
of a large scar on the SE flank that may reflect a failure plane at shallow depth. The deformation pattern of Semeru and its large scar
may be induced by flank spreading over the weak basal layer of Tertiary sediment. The last eruption took place in December 2002 January 2003, and involved emplacement of block-and-ash flows and wet pyroclastic surges. We estimated the volume of the 2002-2003
block-and-ash flow deposits to be c.5.45 x 106 m3, using the 2003 ASTER Surface Kinetic Temperature image. The paper illustrates the
application of high-resolution satellite images in interpreting volcanic structures and eruption impacts.
Keywords: Semeru volcano, remote sensing, 2003 eruption, geology, tectonics.
Introduction
Active and dangerous volcanoes can be studied in safety
using remote sensing. This is particularly true for Semeru, an
extremely active volcano in Indonesia, where the access to the
summit cone is difficult and dangerous (Solikhin et al., accepted). The launch of IKONOS (1 m panchromatic resolution) in
1999, Quick-Bird2 in 2001 (60 cm) and SPOT5 in 2002 (2.5 m),
made three very high-spatial-resolution satellite data sets available for the analysis of volcanic terrains and eruptive phenomena. However, only a limited number of images with such highspatial-resolution have been used to examine the products of
volcanic eruptions (Thouret et al., 2007, 2010).
The 3676 m high Semeru volcano (80605S, 11255E) is
the southernmost edifice of the Semeru-Tengger volcanic massif.
Its ring plain of about 1790 km2, located below 400 m, supports
more than one million people including 85,000 people in the
town of Lumajang to the east. Another 600,000 people live in or
near the city of Malang 45 km WNW of the summit. Semerus
eruptive activity has been recorded since 1818 and eruptions
have been persistent since at least 1967.
ages (IKONOS and SPOT5) and aerial photos have been

used to analyse the structure of the Semeru volcano and map
its deposits. Geological and tectonic mapping is based on
two DEMs and on the interpretation of air photos plus four
SPOT and IKONOS optical satellite images acquired between
1996 and 2002. The satellite images used in this study are: (1)
five high-spatial resolution (1 m) IKONOS satellite images
dated 14-11-2002, 25-09-2004, 16-06-2006, 10-04-2008 and
20-08-2009; (2) Two SPOT5 images, including one panchromatic one at 2.5 m resolution dated 24-10-2003 and one multispectral one at 5 m dated 26-07-2008; (3) One SPOT2 image
dated 11-05-1996 and one SPOT1 scene dated 08-08-1997,
both at 10 m; (4) Three AST08 or ASTER TIR Surface Kinetic Temperature products at 90 m, dated 16-08-2002, 12-032003 and 25-09-2005. The ASTER images have been used to
estimate the volume of the 2002-2003 block-and-ash flow deposits. We have also compared two 10 m pixel images acquired before and after the event to describe the extent and impact of the 2002 block-and-ash flows.
Methodology
Geology, tectonics, and the 2002-2003

eruption of the Semeru volcano
This study is based on remote sensing of optical and thermal

imagery, field observations and measurements, geologic mapping based on air photos, computation of DEMs, and interpretation of landforms and structures. High-spatial resolution im-
The geologic map (Fig. 1) depicts the historic and presentday deposits of Semerus composite cone and ring plain based
on previous work (references in Thouret et al., 2007), and our
interpretation of satellite images, aerial photos, and field ob-
*Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, Bandung, Java, Indonesia.
**PRES Clermont,Universit Blaise Pascal, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, UMR6524 CNRS and IRD-UR163, 5 rue Kessler, 63038, ClermontFerrand cedex, France.
***School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Australia.
****CRISP, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
A. Solikhin, J.-C. Thouret, A. Gupta, A.J.L. Harris et S.C. Liew
servations. The prehistoric

activity of Semeru is poorly
known, the oldest reported
eruption dating back to 1818.
Since 1967, cycles of dome
growth and collapse have occurred every 5 to 7 years in the
Jonggring-Seloko crater, feeding pyroclastic flows that had
travelled up to 12 km: first
along the SE-trending scar and
then following the drainage
network formed by the KembarBang and Koboan-Lengkong
rivers and their tributaries towards the southeast.
The structural map (Fig. 2)
encompasses four groups of
faults. Three of these extend
N40, N160 and N75. The
fourth is a group of faults
trending N105 to N140, with
prevailing N120 faults. The Fig. 1 Geological map of the Semerus composite cone and ring plain based on previous based
first and second fault groups on previous works (references in Thouret et al., 2007) and on our interpretation of satellite images,
can be related to the com- aerial photos, and on field observations.
pressive stress regime induced by the motion of the
India-Australian plate being
subducted towards the north
beneath the Sunda plate and
the third fault group to the extension of the Madura Basin
north of the Bromo-Tengger
caldera. The last fault group is
possibly related to crustal
spreading caused by magmatic intrusions from earlier volcanoes such as Jambangan, whose growth preceded the formation of the
Tengger caldera and Semeru composite cone. Semerus principal structural
features may be due to the tectonic setting of the volcano.
Conspicuous structures such
as the SE-trending horseshoeshaped scar on Semerus summit cone coincide with the
N160-trending faults. The Se- Fig. 2 A. Structural map of the Semeru-Tengger volcanic massif, inferred from SRTM-DEM, TOPOmeru composite cone which DEM and optical satellite images. B. Rose diagram of faults showing four groups of faults F1 to F4.
hosts the currently active C. The sketch diagram depicts the regional tectonic setting around Semeru.
Jonggring-Seloko vent is located on and buttressed against the Mahameru edifice at the volcaniclastic rocks of Tertiary age. We suggest that the dehead of a large scar that may reflect a failure plane at shal- formation pattern of the Semeru and its large scar may be inlow depth. Dipping 35 towards the southeast, the failure duced by flank spreading over the weak basal layer of the
plane may correspond to a weak basal layer of weathered volcano. It is therefore necessary to consider the potential
22
Geology, tectonics and the 2002-2003 eruption of the Semeru Volcano, Indonesia
for flank and / or summit collapse in

the future.
The last eruption took place in
December 2002-January 2003, and
involved emplacement of block-andash flows. On 30 December 2002,
pyroclastic flows travelled 12 km
down the Kembar and Bang valleys.
Based on the 2003 ASTER Surface
Kinetic Temperature image (Fig. 3),
the volume of the 2002-2003 blockand-ash flow deposits is about
c.5.45 x 106 m3. A wet, fine ash-rich
pyroclastic surge escaped from one
of the valley-confined block-and ash
flows at a distance of 5 to 8 km from
the crater and swept across the forest
and tilled land on the southwestern
side of the Bang river valley. The
temperature of the pyroclastic surge
decreased along the valley, and a
mud-rich deposit coated the banks
of the Bang River.
Conclusion
Fig. 3 A. The ASTER TIR surface kinetic temperature image taken on 12 March 2003 with
a blue-red color code shows thermal anomalies induced by the 2002 block-and-ash flows
on Semeru along the SE-trending scar and into the Bang river valley as far as Supit, a suburb of Pronojiwo. B. and C. Three-D surface view of 16 August 2002 and 12 March 2003
ASTER TIR surface kinetic temperature images on TOPO-DEM, showing thermal anomalies
on Semeru before and after 29 December 2002.
We make the following summary statements. (1) The highspatial resolution imagery enabled us to safely study a persistently active and dangerous composite volcano, the Semeru. (2) Four groups of faults trending N40, N160, N75
and N120 occur on the Semeru-Tengger volcanic massif. (3)
Structures visible on the Semerus summit cone may be related to the regional tectonic setting. (4) The Semeru composite cone has been built on and is buttressed against the
Mahameru edifice. Some structures such as summit normal
faults, and thrust faults at the base of the southw0est to east
flank of the Semeru indicate an asymmetric deformation
pattern possibly induced by flank spreading of the weakcored volcano. (5) An example of the hazards posed the Semeru is the 2002 block-and-ash flows with a volume of
5.45x106 m3 that caused the evacuation of 500 people and
damaged the forest and tilled land on the west side of the
Bang valley. (6) Hazard mitigation at Semeru should include
continuous monitoring of the eruptive activity through an
early-warning system and continuous remote sensing of the

morphological changes in the drainage system due to the
impact of frequent pyroclastic flows and lahars.
References
Solikhin A., Thouret J.-C., Gupta A., Harris A.J.L., Liew S.C.,
(2012) Geology, Tectonics, and the 2002-2003 Eruption of the
Semeru Volcano, Indonesia: Interpreted from High-Spatial Resolution Satellite Imagery. Geomorphology 138, 364-379.
Thouret J.-C., Lavigne F., Suwa H., Sukatja B., Surono (2007)
Volcanic hazards at Mount Semeru, East Java (Indonesia), with
emphasis on lahars. Bulletin of Volcanology 70, 221-244.
Thouret J.-C., Gupta A., Lube G., Cronin S.J., Surono (2010)
Analysis of the 2006 eruption deposits of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia, using high-resolution IKONOS images and complementary ground based observations. Remote Sensing of Environment
114, 1949-1967, DOI:10.1016/j.rse.2010.03.016.
23
Satellite remote-sensing analysis of casualties and

damage from the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano
F. Lavigne*
Abstract: Located in Central Java, Indonesia, Merapi Volcano is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. More than eighty eruptions have been identified since the 16th century, of which a dozen caused casualties. In October and November 2010, ashfall, pyroclastic surges and a series of pyroclastic flows swept the flanks of the entire volcano, causing 353 fatalities, significant environmental
and infrastructural damage. During the year preceding this eruption, a field census was conducted on all slopes of Merapi volcano in the
frame of the MIA VITA FP7 European project. Data were acquired at the level of the hamlet (dusun) where no official statistics exist.
Therefore a series of maps, including the spatial distribution of population, have been drawn and further integrated into a GIS. In a second step of the study, the areas affected by the 2010 volcanic flows and surges were mapped in the field and on high-resolution geospatial images (SPOT5, WorldView 2 from Digital Globe acquired on the aftermath of the main explosion. The number of people who could
have been killed in case of a failure of the evacuation has been estimated for each type of volcanic hazards (i.e. pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, and ashfall) through the cross-analysis of satellite remote-sensing data and field data of population distribution. The
damaged buildings were automatically extracted from the images using the new Feature Extraction Module of ENVI 4.8., and also integrated into the GIS. An attribute table displays a mean number of people in each house before the eruption, based on field data extrapolation acquired at the level of the hamlet. Hence it is possible to compare the level of houses damage with the number of casualties and assess the success of crisis mitigation with the phased implementation of a safety evacuation zone that concerned an unprecedented large population of about 1.5 million.
Risk microzonation of Yogyakarta city following

the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano
D.S. Hadmoko**, L.W. Santosa**, M.A. Marfai**, F. Lavigne**
Abstract: The 2010 Eruption of Merapi volcano expelled 150 million cubic meters of pyroclastic materials. The remobilization of these
materials in Code River following the 2010 eruption would constitute a significant hazard to critical infrastructure within the urban area
of Yogyakarta located 25 km south of the Merapi crater. A series of lahars of hyper concentrated-flows type have already caused
significant sediment aggradation in the Code river channel that decreases the river capacity to transport future lahars. The risk of lahar
is enhanced due to the high population density along the river, the expansion of settlements and infrastructures, as well as the high
vulnerability of the people. Therefore, risk mapping is fundamental at the local scale, in minimizing both loss of life and damage to
property. In this on-going research, we attempt to: (1) assess the lahar and flood hazard through several scenarios of lahar discharge; (2)
to identify, map and quantify the elements at risk (e.g., settlements and vital infrastructures) through remote sensing; (3) to assess the
vulnerability of people and properties along the river; and (4) to draw a risk map of the threatened area. Collected data have proven to
be extremely useful for identifying the element at risk along the Code River. The expected result of this research will be useful for lahar
risk mitigation, providing a basis for emergency plans.
* Universit Paris 1 Panthon-Sorbonne, Laboratoire de Gographie Physique, France.

** Faculty of Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia.
Quantifying volcanic hazard and risk

C. Magill*
Short abstract: Volcanic risk can be thought of as a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability; where hazard ideally considers the
magnitude, footprint, probability, timing and duration of potential events. Modelling volcanic hazard and risk poses many unique challenges eruption duration may be extended over months or even years, eruptive volumes for a particular volcano may vary by many
orders of magnitude, style may range from effusive to highly explosive, multiple and secondary hazards may occur, and short eruption
histories mean that identifying patterns in activity can be difficult. Statistical studies and recent advances is stochastic modelling have
allowed many of these challenges to be addressed. Probabilistic assessments of risk incorporate stochastic simulations of volcanic processes, spatial exposure information and vulnerability functions relating hazard intensity to likely impacts. High resolution modelling,
integration with virtual globes, time-dependent eruption probability calculations and multidisciplinary studies are all contributing to
improve assessment of volcanic hazard and risk.
Keywords: loss modelling, risk assessmet, stochastic modelling, volcanic hazard, volcanic risk.
Introduction
The Smithsonian Volcanoes of the WorldCatalogue lists
over 400 terrestrial volcanoes in the Asia-Pacific Region with
200 having erupted historically (Siebert and Simkin 2002).
Many of these volcanoes are situated in areas
of high-population density leading to increased
levels of risk. Jenkins et al. (in press-b) estimated 2billion people to be living within 1000km
of 190 potentially active volcanoes in the Region (Fig. 1).
Of more recent volcanic events affecting the
Region, the eruption of Merapi in Indonesia that
began in late October 2010 killed more than 350
people, most as the result of pyroclastic density
currents. In January 2011, ash from Shinmoedake severely impacted agricultural communities in Miyazaki prefecture, Japan (Magill and
Okada 2011). Disruptions from the May 2010
Eyjafjallajkull eruption in Iceland were felt as
far away as Asia and Australasia when flights
were cancelled due to closure of European
airspace. The total impact on global GDP estimated by Oxford Economics (2010) was US$5
billion with $517 million within Asia. As a further blow to the airline industry, the PuyehueCordn Caulle eruption, Chile, disrupted flights
within South America, South Africa, Australia
and New Zealand throughout June 2011.
Fig. 1 Volcano locations in the Asia-Pacific region,
overlain with a histogram of population counts
within 1000 km of each volcano and within 5 degree latitude bands. Figure from Jenkins et al. (in
press-b).
*Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, NSW 2109, Australia.
Risk is a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability;

where hazard ideally considers the magnitude, footprint, probability, timing and duration of potential events. To improve
our understanding of hazard and risk, statistical analysis and
modelling can build upon geological, engineering and soci-
C. Magill
ological investigations. Quantifying risk by including probability estimates for events of various magnitudes can assist
disaster planning and allow the benefits of various preparation measures and strategies to be analysed.
Challenges
Modelling approaches
Modelling volcanic hazard poses many challenges. In particular, and in contrast to other natural hazards, volcanic
eruptions may continue for many months or even years
(Jenkins et al., 2007; Siebert et al., 2010). Soufrire Hills in
Montserrat has now been erupting for 15 years, with continued dome growth and collapse, pyroclastic flow and lahar
events (Sparks and Young, 2002; Wadge et al., 2010). The
2000 eruption of Miyake-jima Island, Japan, forced the
evacuation of 3845 people, the entire population of the island. Not until 2005 when gas levels returned to safer levels were residents allowed to return permanently and the recovery could begin (Miyake Village 2008). Hazards can continue even after the end of eruptive activity. For example,
151 train passengers were killed at Tangiwai, New Zealand,
in December 1953 after the destruction of a bridge by a lahar
from Mount Ruapehu (Graettinger et al., 2010) even though
Ruapehu had not erupted since 1952.
In addition to event duration, it must be borne in mind that
eruptive volumes for a particular volcano may vary by many
orders of magnitude and the style of activity may range from
effusive to highly explosive. Eruptions from the Taupo Volcanic Centre, for example, have varied in bulk volume between 0.1 and >45 km3 since the c. 26.5 ka Oruanui eruption
which erupted c. 400 km3 of magma (Sutton et al., 2000).
Multiple hazards are likely to occur throughout an event,
each with varying magnitudes, extents, durations and consequences. Hazards may range from small ash and gas
emissions through to destructive pyroclastic currents. Disaster planning for volcanoes such as Mount Fuji, Japan, must
consider hazards including tephra-falls, lava flows, debris
avalanches, lahars and pyroclastic flows (Cabinet Office
2004). Secondary hazards such as tsunami (Choi et al.,
2003; Unzen Restoration Office 2002), or climatic cooling
from sulphuric acid aerosols (Self et al. 1981; Zielinski et
al., 1994), may also occur during some eruptions.
Determining probabilities for future volcanic events, as
well as assessing likely eruption styles, hazards and magnitudes, relies largely on evidence from past eruptions from
the volcano in question. For volcanic systems where an extended eruption history is known, there is often considerable
evidence for cyclicity and/or temporal clustering on varying
timescales, which needs to be considered. However, repose
periods for some volcanoes may be in the 100s or 1000s of
years, exceeding human history and with little evidence
even in the geological record, meaning that these patterns
are difficult to identify.
All these possibilities complicate the calculation of volcanic hazard and therefore of risk. We cannot assume that
future events will be the same as in the past and therefore,
although useful for detailed planning exercises, it is not adequate to rely on deterministic hazard simulations. Studies
28
must consider the many combinations of hazards, phases and

duration rather than resting upon deterministic analysis of
discrete event scenarios. We must consider the evolution of
each volcanic system and potential time-dependent changes
in magnitude, style and eruption probability.
Statistical studies and recent advances is stochastic

modelling have allowed many of these challenges to be
addressed. An event tree methodology was developed by
Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) where each branch was assigned a probability and led from a general to more specific
outcome, e.g. from magmatic intrusion to magmatic eruption to VEI level and then the probability of pyroclastic
flow. Neri et al. (2008) built upon this for Vesuvius by
adding probability distributions to each branch based on the
results of expert elicitation. Marzocchi et al. (2008) used
event tree principles to develop the software package BETEF, which combines all available volcanological data to estimate probabilities for risk assessment and planning purposes.
Hazard assessments involving monogenetic fields consider both temporal and spatial eruption probability. Probabilistic assessments of vent locations for the Auckland Volcanic Field, centred on Auckland City, New Zealand, have
been carried out using cluster analysis (Magill et al., 2005)
and by incorporating improved tephra dating information,
correlation to source volcanoes and a spatial density kernel
(Bebbington and Cronin 2011). A number of similar assessments involving kernel smoothing have been carried out in
respect to the siting of nuclear facilities (e.g. Connor and
Hill 1995; Connor et al., 2000; Martin et al., 2004; Weller et
al., 2006), were annual probability calculations are critical
and values of up to 10-8 can be considered high.
Stochastic modelling of volcanic processes takes into account a volcanos eruptive history, trends in recent activity,
data from analogous volcanoes and aleatory variability. In
the case of modelling volcanic ash dispersal (e.g. Bonadonna 2006; Hurst and Smith 2004; Magill et al., 2006), distributions are created describing eruption probability, eruptive
volume, eruption column height, particle size and wind
speed and direction with height. Each event may be modelled as a series of phases in order that a probabilistic assessment of event duration can also be made (Bonadonna et
al., 2005; Jenkins et al., 2008). Tens of thousands of simulations are performed, also taking into account environmental conditions, such as weather and topography, allowing the
probability of exceeding various ash fall thicknesses or loads
to be calculated for any location. Similar probabilistic simulations have been carried out for other volcanic hazards, including lava flows (e.g. Favalli et al., 2009; Felpeto et al.,
2001; Wadge et al., 1994) and, although computation demands are intensive, pyroclastic density currents (Rossano et
al., 2004).
Probabilistic simulation techniques have been applied to
multiple volcanoes to obtain regional hazard assessments
(Magill et al., 2006; Volentik et al., 2009). On a larger scale,
Quantifying Volcanic Hazard and Risk
1000 tephra-dispersal simulations were carried out for each

potentially dangerous volcano in the Asia-Pacific region;
where tephra thickness exceedance estimates were combined with population data to obtain population-weighted
hazard maps for the region (Jenkins et al. in press-a; Jenkins
et al. in press-b).
Probabilistic methods can also be used to calculate volcanic
risk and to estimate the likely damage and disruption arising
from future volcanic events. Probability density distributions
are created that relate mean damage, cost, resources, etc. to
hazard magnitude, with uncertainty given by the spread of
values about the mean. These distributions are combined with
hazard layers and population, building and land-use information to provide a spatial distribution of risk.
Volcanic risk models have been developed for the North
Island, New Zealand, and the Greater Tokyo Region, Japan (see
http://www.riskfrontiers.com/volcNZ.html and www.riskfrontiers.com/kazanrisk.htm). These models combine probabilistic
tephra dispersal simulations with exposure information and
vulnerability functions to calculate loss exceedance statistics. In the case of the KazanRisk model developed for
Greater Tokyo (Fig. 2), for each of 60,000 simulations, we
are able to calculate the total amount of tephra falling on
various land-use types including residential, non-residential,
agriculture, forestry and roads. Vulnerability functions have

been developed for different building types allowing us to
estimate damage and loss for each simulated event. Functions have also been created that relate the volume and mass
loading of tephra to the costs and resources needed for
clean-up activities and seasonally-dependent losses to agricultural/horticultural production. Hazard and risk results
may be displayed by plotting against Average Recurrence
Intervals (ARIs) or, alternatively, mapped at a 1 km mesh
level. KML files are created for given impact thresholds and
ARIs, which can then be displayed on a virtual globe.
Discussion and future trends

Probabilistic hazard and risk (or loss) results can benefit
planning by governments, business owners, transport organisations, farmers and emergency managers. Results such as
tephra load, building loss or clean-up time for a given location can be plotted against conditional or annual probability,
or alternatively, ARI. Probabilities of exceeding various
hazard or risk thresholds can also be mapped. Future modelling will incorporate a layered approached that allows
expansion and improvements to be made as more information becomes available and requirements expand.
Fig. 2 Probabilistic hazard results for the Greater Tokyo Region generated by KazanRisk and displayed in a Google Earth framework.
29
C. Magill
As observational data, computing resources and simulation techniques improve, hazard simulations will become increasing more complex. High resolution modelling is already being carried out for tephra dispersal (e.g. Folch et al.,
in press) and pyroclastic density currents (e.g. Esposti Ongaro et al., 2008). With time, probabilistic techniques will
be able to be applied to simulations such as these, allowing
the full range of eruption possibilities to be considered in
greater detail. Visualisation techniques are also becoming
more sophisticated with simulations increasingly displayed
on virtual globes (e.g. Webley 2011). Both 2- and 3-dimensional simulations displayed in this way allow underlying
exposure, including critical infrastructure and transport
routes, to be easily identified and have the potential to play
an important role in education and disaster planning.
The timing of volcanic events cannot be thought of as a
simple Poisson or random process and probability calculations, where possible, need to consider clustering and cyclicity within volcanic systems. Estimates of eruption probability are best considered to be time-dependent, with the length
of time since the last eruption being important (Bebbington
2010; Turner et al. 2008). Geological, geochemical and dating studies all add to the reliability of these estimates.
A multidisciplinary approach will increasingly be applied
to risk assessment. Engineering (e.g. Baxter et al., 2005;
Spence et al., 2004; Wardman et al., in press) and sociological (Gaillard 2008; Jenkins and Haynes 2011) studies will be
incorporated to better understand the physical and social impacts to communities from future events. Improving the communication of risk assessment studies to communities and decision makers is a fundamental step in the successful implementation of mitigation measures and increased resilience
(Barclay et al., 2008; Cronin et al., 2004; Haynes et al., 2007).
However, an important contribution is increasingly provided
by those scientists investigating the underlying social vulnerabilities that increase disaster risks (Wilson 2009; Wisner et
al. 2003). This includes the incorporation of social development approaches which actively reduce peoples exposure to
hazards, and increase their capacity to anticipate, cope with
and recover from volcanic impacts.
The potential extended nature of volcanic events, large range
of eruptive volumes and styles, multiple hazards and limited
evidence due to short eruption histories, all contribute to the
uncertainties of any volcanic hazard and risk estimation. Many
of these uncertainties can be addressed though statistical analysis and probabilistic modelling, fields of research that are
growing rapidly and benefiting from contributions from
many fields of science.
References
Barclay J., Haynes K., Mitchell T., Darnell A. (2008) Framing
volcanic risk communication within disaster risk reduction:
Finding ways for the social and physical sciences to work together. In: Liverman D.G.E., Pereira C.P.G., Marker B. (eds),
Communicating Environmental Geoscience. Geological Society
Special Publication, 305, Geological Society, London, 214 p.
30
Baxter P.J., Boyle R., Cole P., Neri A., Spence R., Zuccaro G.
(2005) The impacts of pyroclastic surges on buildings at the
eruption of the Soufrire Hills volcano, Montserrat. Bulletin of
Volcanology 67(4), 292-313.
Bebbington M., Cronin S.J. (2011) Spatio-temporal hazard estimation in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, with a
new event-order model. Bulletin of Volcanology 73(1), 55-72.
Bebbington M.S. (2010) Trends and clustering in the onsets of volcanic eruptions. Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (B01203),
DOI: 10.1029/2009JB006581.
Bonadonna C. (2006) Probabilistic modelling of tephra dispersion. In: Mader H.M., Coles S.G., Connor C.B., Connor L.J.
(eds), Statistics in Volcanology. IAVCEI Publications, Geological Society of London, p. 243-259.
Bonadonna C., Connor C.B., Houghton B.F., Connor L.J.,
Byrne M., Laing A., Hinks T. (2005) Probabilistic modeling
of tephra dispersion: hazard assessment for a multi-phase eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research 11(B3), B0320310.0321029/ 0322003JB0002896.
Cabinet Office (2004) Report of the committee for hazard maps
of Fuji Volcano. Cabinet Office, Tokyo, 240 p.
Choi B.H., Pelinovsky E., Kim K.O., Lee J.S. (2003) Simulation of the trans-oceanic tsunami propagation due to the 1883
Krakatau volcanic eruption. Natural Hazards and Earth System
Sciences 3(5), 321-332.
Connor C.B., Hill B.E. (1995) Three nonhomogeneous Poisson
models for the probability of basaltic volcanism: Application to
the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada. Journal of Geophysical
Research,100(B6), 10107-10125.
Connor C.B., Stamatakos J.A., Ferrill D.A., Hill B.E., Ofoegbu
G.I., Conway F.M., Sagar B., Trapp J. (2000) Geologic factors controlling patterns of small-volume basaltic volcanism:
Application to a volcanic hazards assessment at Yucca Mountain,
Nevada. Journal of Geophysical Research 105(1), 417-432.
Cronin S.J., Gaylord D.R., Charley P., Wallez S., Alloway
B.V., Esau J.W. (2004) Participatory methods of incorporating scientific with traditional knowledge for volcanic hazard assessment on Ambae Island, Vanuatu. Bulletin of Volcanology 66,
652-668.
Esposti Ongaro T., Neri A., Menconi G., deMichieli Vitturi P.,
Marianelle P., Cavazzoni C., Erbacci G., Baxter P.J. (2008)
Transient 3D numerical simulations of column collapse and
pyroclastic density current scenarios at Vesuvius. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 178(3), 378-396.
Favalli M., Chirico G.D., Papale P., Pareschi M.T., Boschi E.
(2009) Lava flow hazard at Nyiragongo volcano, D.R.C., 1.
Model calibration and hazard mapping. Bulletin of Volcanology
71(4), 363-374.
Felpeto A., Araa V., Ortiz M., Astiz M., Garca A. (2001)
Assessment and modelling of lava flow hazard on Lanzarote
(Canary Islands). Natural Hazards 23(2-3), 247-257.
Folch A., Costa A., Basart S. (in press) Validation of the
FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010
Eyjafjallajkull volcanic ash clouds. Atmospheric Environment.
Gaillard J.-C. (2008) Alternative paragrams of volcanic risk
perception: The case of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. Journal
of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 172, 315-328.
Quantifying Volcanic Hazard and Risk
Graettinger A.H., Manville V., Briggs R.M. (2010) Depositional record of historic lahars in the upper Whangaehu Valley,
Mt. Ruapehu, New Zealand: implications for trigger mechanisms, flow dynamics and lahar hazards. Bulletin of Volcanology
72, 279-296.
Haynes K., Barclay J., Pidgeon N.F. (2007) An evaluation of
volcanic hazard maps as a communication tool on the Caribbean
Island of Montserrat. Bulletin of Volcanology 70(2), 123-138.
Hurst A.W., Smith W. (2004) A Monte Carlo methodology for
modelling ashfall hazards. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 138(3-4), 393-403.
Jenkins S.F., Haynes K. (2011) Volcanic eruption. In: Wisner B.,
Gaillard J.-C., Kelman I. (eds), Handbook of hazards and disaster risk reduction. Routledge, 872 p.
Jenkins S.F., Magill C.R., McAneney K.J. (2007) Multi-stage
volcanic events: A statistical investigation. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 161, 275-288.
Jenkins S.F., Magill C.R., McAneney K.J., Blong R.J. (in pressa) Regional ash fall hazard I: A probabilistic assessment
methodology. Bulletin of Volcanology.
Jenkins S.F., Magill C.R., McAneney K.J., Hurst A.W. (2008)
Multistage volcanic events: Tephra hazard simulations for the
Okataina Volcanic Center, New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical
Research 113(F04012), DOI: 10.1029/2007JF000787.
Jenkins S.F., McAneney K.J., Magill C.R., Blong R.J. (in pressb) Regional ash fall hazard II. Asia-Pacific modelling results
and implications. Bulletin of Volcanology.
Magill C.R., Hurst A.W., Hunter L.J., Blong R.J. (2006) Probabilistic tephra fall simulation for that Auckland Region, New
Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 153,
370-386.
Magill C.R., McAneney K.J., Smith I.E.M. (2005) Probabilistic assessment of vent locations for the next Auckland Volcanic
Field event. Mathematical Geology 37(3), 227-242.
Magill C.R., Okada T. (2011) Preliminary investigation of
the impacts of the 2011 Shinmoedake eruption: January
29th to February 3rd. Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, 31 p.
Martin A.J., Umeda K., Connor C.B., Weller J.N., Zhao D.,
Takahashi M. (2004) Modeling long-term volcanic hazards
through Bayesian inference: An example from the Tohoku volcanic arc, Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (B10208),
DOI: 10.1029/2004JB003201
Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Selva J. (2008) BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting. Bulletin of Volcanology 70, 623-632.
Miyake Village (2008) Volcanic eruptions on Miyakejima Island
in 2000: the year 2000 record of disastrous eruption Miyakejima
Island/overview, 29 p.
Neri A., Aspinall W.P., Cioni R., Bertagnini A., Baxter P.J.,
Zuccaro G., Andronico D., Barsotti S., Cole P.D., Esposti
Ongaro T., Hinks T.K., Macedonio G., Papale P., Rosi M.,
Santacroce R., Woo G. (2008) Developing an event tree for
probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius. Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research 178(3), 397-415.
Newhall C.G., Hoblitt R.P. (2002) Constructing event trees for
volcanic crises. Bulletin of Volcanology 64(1), 3-30.
Oxford Economics (2010) The economic impacts of air travel

restrictions due to volcanic ash: A report prepared for Airbus.
Oxford Economics, 12 p.
Rossano S., Mastrolorenzo G., De Natale G. (2004) Numerical
simulation of pyroclastic density currents on Campi Flegrei
topography: a tool for statistical hazard estimation. Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research 131(1), 1-14.
Self S., Rampino M.R., Barbera J.J. (1981) The possible
effects of large 19th and 20th Century volcanic eruptions on
zonal and hemispheric surface temperatures. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 11(1), 41-60.
Siebert L., Simkin T. (2002) Volcanoes of the World: an Illustrated Catalogue of Holocene Volcanoes and their Eruptions. In:
Smithsonian Institution, Global Volcanism Program Digital Information Series, GVP-3 (http://www.volcano.si.edu /world/)
Siebert L., Simkin T., Kimberly P. (2010) Volcanoes of the
world: third edition. Smithsonian Institution, 551 p.
Sparks R.S.J., Young S.R. (2002) The eruption of Soufrire
Hills Volcano, Montserrat (1995-1999): overview of scientific
results. Geological Society London, Memoirs, 21, 45-69.
Spence R.J.S., Zuccaro G., Petrazzuoli S., Baxter P.J. (2004)
Resistance of buildings to pyroclastic flows: Analytical and
experimental studies and their application to Vesuvius. Natural
Hazards Review 5(1), 48-59.
Sutton A.N., Blake S., Wilson C.J.N., Charlier B.L.A. (2000)
Late Quaternary evolution of a hyperactive rhyolite magmatic
system: Taupo volcanic centre, New Zealand. Journal of the
Geological Society, London, 157(3), 537-552.
Turner M.B., Cronin S.J., Bebbington M.S., Platz T. (2008)
Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand. Bulletin of
Volcanology 70(4), 507-515.
Unzen Restoration Office (2002) The catastrophe in Shimabara:
the 1791-92 eruption of Unzen-Fugendake and the sector collapse of Mayu-Yama. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport in Japan, 20 p.
Volentik A.C.M., Connor C.B., Connor L.J., Bonadonna C. (2009)
Aspects of volcanic hazard assessment for the Bataan nuclear power
plant, Luzon Peninsula, Philippines. In: Connor C.B., Chapman N.A.,
Connor L.J. (eds), Volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment for nuclear facilities. Cambridge University Press, p. 326-345.
Wadge G., Herd R., Ryan G., Calder E.S., Komorowski J.C.
(2010) Lava production at Soufrire Hills Volcano, Montserrat: 1995-2009. Geophysical Research Letters 37(L00E03), doi,
10.1029/ 2009GL041466.
Wadge G., Young P.A.V., McKendrick I.J. (1994) Mapping
lava flow hazards using computer simulation. Journal of Geophysical Research 99(B1):489-504.
Wardman J.B., Wilson T.M., Bodger P.S., Cole J.W., Johnston
D.M. (in press) Investigating the electrical conductivity of volcanic ash and its effect on HV power systems. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth.
Webley P.W. (2011) Virtual Globe visualization of ash-aviation
encounters, with the special case of the 1989 Redoubt-KML incident. Computers and Geosciences 37(1), 25-37.
Weller J.N., Martin A.J., Connor C.B., Connor L.J., Karakhanian A. (2006) Modelling the spatial distribution of volcanoes:
31
C. Magill
an example from Armenia. In: Mader H.M., Coles S.G., Connor C.B., Connor L.J. (eds), Statistics in Volcanology. IAVCEI
special publication, p. 77-87.
Wilson T.M. (2009) Vulnerability of pastoral farming systems
to volcanic ashfall hazards. PhD thesis submitted to the Natural Hazard Research Centre, University of Canterbury, New
Zealand, 261 p.
32
Wisner B., Blaikie P.M., Davis I., Cannon T. (2003) At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples Vulnerability and Disasters. Routledge, 464 p.
Zielinski G.A., Mayewski P.A., Meeker L.D., Whitlow S.,
Twickler M.S., Morrison M., Meese D.A., Gow A.J., Alley
R.B. (1994) Record of volcanism since 7000 B.C. from the
GISP2 Greenland ice core and implications for the volcano-climate system. Science 264(5161), 948-952.
Topographic characterization of the Auckland Volcanic

Field (New Zealand) Implications for lava flow hazard
mapping
G. Kereszturi*,**, J. Procter*, K. Nmeth*, J. Lindsay***, J. Kenny****, S. J. Cronin*,
M. Bebbington*,*****, G. Jordn**
Absttract: Monogenetic volcanic fields are common on the Earths surface and typically consist of basaltic lava flows which can range in length
from tens of metres to up to ~160 km (e.g. Undara in Australia). Lava flows are most commonly derived from lava spatter cones and scoria cones.
Tuff rings, tuff cones and maars can also produce sizeable lava flows if the lava volume is large enough to spill out of the basin. Lava flow size
and behaviour depend primarily on (i) effusion rate, (ii) geochemistry, (iii) magma volume and (iv) topography. Lava flows can have a significant and long lasting impact on the anthropogenic and natural environment, but rarely cause loss of human life.
The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is comprised of at least 50 monogenetic volcanoes in the form of scoria cones, phreatomagmatic tuff
rings and maars. The AVFs ca. 360 km2 area coincides with Auckland City, hosting a population of 1.4 million. The volcanism appears to
have peaked in frequency around 30 ka before present, forming most of the central part of the AVF. The most recent eruption (600550 years
ago) took place in the northern part of the field and formed a basaltic shield volcano, Rangitoto. While the eruption of Rangitoto produced
a distinctive shield cone in which lava is distributed radially from the vents with no preferred flow orientation or direction, elsewhere in the
AVF lava flows seem to follow paleo-topography, forming single longitudinal flow lobes.
The majority of the volcanic hazard scenarios for the AVF have focused on the potential of a sustained phase of explosive eruption (e.g.
considering an already formed scoria cone), while the style of the onset of the eruption (e.g. phreatomagmatic maar-forming) or the
effect of potential (long-lived) lava flow effusion have thus far not been the focus of detailed study. While there is no doubt that initial
phreatomagmatic explosive phases and related phenomena (e.g. base surge) represent the major hazard to life and infrastructure, effusive lava flows may actually represent a more enduring hazard and impact, impeding recovery from eruption-induced disasters. From
the known 50 monogenetic volcanoes, 15 individual lava flows have been recognized by geological mapping.
In this study, we examine the main morphometric characteristics of the lava flows of the AVF and calculate the maximum and mean length,
maximum and mean thickness, areal extent and volume in order to estimate the size of an average lava flow. The length and area have been
calculated from geological maps on a vector basis. Based on the DEVORA Borehole Database (link: http://pet.gns.cri.nz/), we reconstruct
the bottom surface of the lava flows in order to estimate more reliably the lava flow volumes. An average AVF lava flow is characterized by
~1,500 m length, ~ 19 m thickness and occupies an area ~5.2 km2. The average volume is ~0.1 km3.
Remote sensing data (e.g. LiDAR) are utilised to provide a new database that allows systematic characterization of the present surface in order
to locate topographically the areas where any future lava flows could pond, i.e., topographic depressions, obstacles that can change flow directions, and unconfined areas where flows could spread in unpredictable ways. The high resolution physical characteristics of the present topography, along with the characterisation of past AVF lava flows allow us to compile a new lava flow hazard map for the area.
*Volcanic Risk Solutions, Institute of Natural Resources, Massey University, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
**Geological Institute of Hungary, Stefnia t 14, H-1143, Budapest, Hungary.
***School of Environment, The University of Auckland, PB92019, Auckland Mail Center 1142, Auckland, New Zealand.
****Geomarine Research, 49 Swainston Rd, St Johns, Auckland, New Zealand.
*****Institute of Fundamental SciencesStatistics, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Application of field observations and remote sensing to

numerical modeling and hazard assessment of volcanic
flows: an example from Merapi volcano, Indonesia
S. J. Charbonnier*, C. B. Connor*, L. Connor*, T. Dixon*, R. Gertisser**
Short abstract: The performance of geophysical mass flow models in simulating actual events is critically dependent on: (1) the calibration of the model by using extensive field-based data such as deposit distribution, processes of flow generation, transport and
deposition; (2) the incorporation of a suitable numerical topographic dataset through multiple acquisition of remote sensing data (i.e.,
high-resolution digital elevation models); and (3) the choice of model input parameters and source characteristics.
Keywords: volcanic flows, numerical modeling, remote sensing, Merapi volcano, hazard assessment.
Introduction
Volcanic flows include lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, pyroclastic density currents and surges, all of which may
have devastating consequences for local communities, their
economy, transportation, and the natural environment. The
application of geophysical mass flow models (GMFMs) to
simulate volcanic flows is fundamental to better understand
the key conditions that control flow behavior and to improve
assessment of their potential hazards. Recent advances have
been made in creating computational models of these flows
for the purpose of hazard mitigation (e.g., McDougall and
Hungr, 2004; Kelfoun and Druitt, 2005; Patra et al., 2005).
Applications of these models have been performed at several volcanoes over topographies obtained from stereo coverage
of satellite imagery (e.g., ASTER Advanced Spaceborne
Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer), radar data
(e.g., SRTMShuttle Radar Topography mapping Mission),
laser altimetry (e.g., LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging),
and generic vector data (e.g., contour lines from topographic
maps). Despite the variability of the input parameters required
by each routine, in order to perform a numeric simulation, a
digital elevation model (DEM) is a common input for simulation algorithms.
Previous authors have shown the importance of the choice
of the DEM on computational routines for reconstructing the
different paths, velocities and extents of various flows, and
for correctly estimating the areas and levels of hazards associated with future volcanic activity (e.g., Stevens et al., 2002;
Capra et al., 2011). The age and resolution of the DEM is an
important issue when testing the accuracy of any terrain-dependent model and developing an appropriate DEM provides the basis for any realistic flow modeling. As with all
simulation studies that attempt to use existing depositional
records to evaluate model outputs, the topography representation or DEM used is normally that of the present day, rather
than the ideal of a pre-event terrain model. Therefore, a proper understanding and respect for model uncertainty arising
from poor parameter estimation, topographic description or
mechanical understanding is critical when determining
whether the use of GMFMs is appropriate for volcanic hazards assessment.
Methods
In this work, we study in a systematic way how different
DEM resolutions influence the output of simulations reproducing past volcanic flows, especially where topography is
characterized by sudden changes in slope or close curves in
deep ravines. The 2006 block-and-ash flows (BAFs) of Merapi Volcano, located in Central Java, Indonesia, presented a
rare opportunity to test the validity of some of these DEMs
against a well-constrained field example (Charbonnier and
Gertisser, 2009). The May-June 2006 eruption of Merapi
Volcano consisted of three eruption phases that produced
two main types of BAFs (short- to medium-runout BAFs
that show similar behavior as granular-free surface flows on
unconfined planes and long-runout BAFs interpreted as unsteady, modified grainflows) that have been recognized
based on various parameters such as their generation mechanisms, flow volume, travel distance, deposit morphology,
distribution, lithology and grain size distributions (Charbonnier, 2009; Charbonnier and Gertisser, 2011). The influence
of various types of topographic settings on transport and deposition mechanisms of these two types of BAFs was examined through the development of two conceptual models
(Charbonnier and Gertisser, 2011). Based on these models,
a new classification scheme for the different types of BAFs
* Department of Geology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, 33620, USA.

** School of Physical and Geographical Sciences, Earth Sciences and Geography, Keele University, Keele, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG, United Kingdom.
S.J. Charbonnier et al.
observed at Merapi has been proposed that can be directly

integrated into numerical simulations using three different
computational routines: Titan2D (Patra et al., 2005), VolcFlow (Kelfoun and Druitt, 2005) and DAN3D (McDougall
and Hungr, 2004). The DEMs we used for the simulations
are: (1) a local DEM (LDEM) with a spatial resolution of 15
m, a vertical accuracy of 9 m; (2) an ASTER Global DEM
of ~30 m spatial resolution and 11 m vertical accuracy;
and (3) a SRTM WRS-2 DEM with a spatial resolution of 90
m, a vertical accuracy of 10 m. Sensitivity tests have been
carried out by running numerical simulations using input parameters defined in Charbonnier and Gertisser (2009).
Results
Figure 1 shows the results of sensitivity tests carried out
using the Titan2D routine for reproducing the inundation
area of the 14 June 2006 BAF at Merapi Volcano over three
DEMs with different spatial resolutions. Low-resolution
DEMs, such as the 90-m DEM, are inappropriate to reproduce the BAF inundation area over irregular topographic
path where obstacles and abrupt turns can suddenly change
the simulated flow path. Inaccuracy in both, altitude of topographic obstacles and depth of ravines, made impossible to
reproduce past flows for DEM with coarse spatial resolutions (> 15 m). Table 1 shows the effects of the DEM spatial
resolution on two of the model output variables obtained

during the Titan2D simulations, maximum flow velocities
and maximum flow depths. Results show increasing maximum flow velocities (from 45.8 to 60.7 m/s) and decreasing
flow depths (from 25.1 to 8.5 m) when using DEMs with
coarser spatial resolutions (from 15 to 90 m). Similar results
were obtained with VolcFlow and DAN3D simulation codes
when using similar input parameters over the same three
DEMs. These results represent a significant contribution,
evidence that the source data, used to obtain the DEM over
which the flow is simulated, are a key input parameter that
controls the simulation results. In the particular case of
rugged topography, such as at subduction-zone stratovolcanoes like Merapi, a DEM with high spatial resolution (i.e.,
515 m) should be acquired in order to obtain confident
simulation results.
Discussion and conclusions

Results show the importance of the DEM accuracy on
computational routines for correctly reproducing the flow
paths and areas covered from a well constrained eruptive
event at Merapi Volcano. The results suggest that the performance of numerical models in simulating actual events is
critically dependent on: (1) the calibration of the model by
using extensive field-based data such as deposit distribution,
Fig. 1 Sensitivity tests carried out using the Titan2D routine for reproducing the inundation area of the 14 June 2006 BAF at Merapi volcano over DEMs with different spatial resolutions. The red outline is the mapped extent of the 14 June 2006 BAF deposits. The
flow coverage match is obtained by dividing the intersection area of the mapped and simulated inundation areas by their union area.
36
Application of field observations and remote sensing to numerical modeling and hazard assessment of volcanic flows
Max. velocity (m/s)
Max. flow depth (m)
LDEM 15 m
45.8
25.1
ATSER GDEM 30m
50.8
11.7
ered not only instrumental for characterizing

volcanic flows and related hazards at Merapi,
but will allow comparisons with similar volcanic phenomena at other volcanoes around
the globe.
SRTM WRS-2 90 m
60.7
8.5
References
TITAN 2D model
Output variable
Capra L., Manea V.C., Manea M., Norini G.

(2011) The importance of digital elevation model
resolution on granular flow simulations: a test case
for Colima volcano using TITAN2D computational
routine. Natural Hazards Review, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9788-6.
Charbonnier S. (2009) The dynamics and hazards of small-volume pyroclastic flows: a case study of the 2006 eruption of Merapi
volcano, Java, Indonesia. PhD Dissertation, Keele University,
United Kingdom, 347 p.
Charbonnier S., Gertisser R. (2009) Numerical simulations of
block-and-ash flows using the Titan2D flow model: examples
from the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia. Bulletin of Volcanology 71, 953-959.
Charbonnier, S., Gertisser, R. (2011) Deposit architecture and
dynamics of the 2006 block-and-ash flows of Merapi Volcano,
Java, Indonesia. Sedimentology, DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3091.2011
.01226.
Kelfoun K., Druitt T.H. (2005) Numerical modeling of the
emplacement of Socompa rock avalanche, Chile. Journal of
Geophysical Research 112, B12202.
McDougall S., Hungr O. (2004) A model for the analysis of
rapid landslide motion across three-dimensional terrain. Canadian Geotechnics J. 41, 1084-1097.
Patra A.K., Bauer A.C., Nichita C.C., Pitman E.B., Sheridan
M.F., Bursik M.I., Rupp B., Webber A., Stinton A.J.,
Namikawa L.M., Renschler C.S. (2005) Parallel adaptive
simulation of dry avalanches over natural terrain. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 139, 1-22.
Stevens N.F., Manville V., Heron, D.W. (2002) The sensitivity
of a volcanic flow model to digital elevation model accuracy:
experiments with digitized map contours and interferometric
SAR at Ruapehu and Taranaki volcanoes, New Zealand. Journal
of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 119, 89-105.
Wadge G., Cole P., Stinton A., Komorowski J.-C., Stewart R.,
Toombs A.C., Legendre Y. (2011) Rapid topographic change
measured by high-resolution satellite radar at Soufriere Hills
Volcano, Montserrat, 2008-2010. Journal of Volcanology and
Geothermal Research 199, 142-152.
Tab. 1 Titan2D model output variables for the 14 June 2006 BAFs at Merapi using
different DEM resolutions.
processes of flow generation, transport and deposition; (2)

the incorporation of a suitable numerical topographic dataset
(i.e., high-resolution DEM); and (3) the choice of model
input parameters, such as location and volume of the initial
pile of material and source characteristics.
The newly available combination of TerraSAR-X satellite
data with its add-on TanDEM-X data (from the German
Aerospace Center DLR) can generate accurate numerical topography (DEMs with up to 6 m spatial resolution and 0.8 m
vertical accuracy) and/or capture rapid topographic changes
associated with the emplacement of volcanic deposits over
short (< two weeks) periods (Wadge et al., 2011).This gives
volcanologists the tremendous potential to better understand the dynamics of hazardous volcanic flows. Our main
goal is now to demonstrate the utility of such enhanced quality DEMs for volcano hazards and crisis management. We
will test and validate the high resolution DEM products from
the current TanDEM-X mission, by investigating the sensitivity of standard volcanic flow models to various DEMs. By
combining numerical simulations using freely available models, probability modeling and statistical methods for defining
best-fit input parameters, we can develop a systematic approach for correctly estimating model uncertainties arising
from poor parameter estimation, pre-event topography and
mechanical understanding of volcanic flows. This method
can also be used for detecting and measuring rapid topographic changes occurring during short eruptive periods and
defining hazard zonations for key areas at risk from future
volcanic activity.
Consequently, the work proposed here will be of immediate
benefit to all groups involved in assessing volcano hazards either directly (at observatories on some of the most active volcanoes around the world) or through remote sensing techniques. Ultimately, the dataset obtained in this study is consid-
37
The role of remote sensing data during

the 2010 crisis at Merapi volcano
Surono*, A. Solikhin*, A. B. Santoso*, P. Jousset**, J. S. Pallister***,
M. Boichu****, S. Carn*****
Short abstract: Merapi volcano (Indonesia) is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in the world, known for its frequent relatively small eruptions, characteristic pyroclastic flows and large population at risk. Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard
Mitigation (CVGHM) declares alert level of Merapi volcano based on ground observations (seismic, deformation, SO2 emission) and
satellite remote sensing data provided from international collaboration in a worldwide scale. Between 26 October and 8 November 2010,
Merapi Volcano produced its largest eruption in more than a century, requiring the evacuation of an area of about 1300 km2 and displacing 410,388 people. Our data show that the eruption had a rapid onset and relatively short duration as consequences of rapid ascent
of unusually gas-rich magma for Merapi. The integration of ground observations and satellite remote sensing data for real-time and nearreal time monitoring of the eruption played a vital role it in decision support, especially regarding ranges of exclusion zones.
Keywords: Merapi volcano, remote sensing, 2010 crisis.
Introduction
Merapi volcano, located in densely populated of Central Java
and Yogyakarta Provinces, is one of Indonesias most active
volcanoes. The summit at 2968 m above sea level has been
built up by andesitic lava flows and domes. The most dangerous and high risk area is southeast to southwest slopes, since
the last 100 years pyroclastic flows due to dome collapse directed mainly towards these slopes area. During historical
time, the volcano has frequently erupted and the eruption style
is characterized by dome growth and collapse, subsequently
producing pyroclastic flows. Since 1768, there have been
more than 80 recorded eruptions. Some are categorized as
large eruptions with VEI 3 such as in 1768, 1822, 1849,
1872 and 1930-1931 (Andreastuti, et al., 2000; Voight et al.,
2000). At least seventeen of Merapis past eruptions, including the latest eruption in 2010, have caused fatalities due to
densely population (about 400,000 people) in its hazard zones.
2010 Merapi eruption: monitoring,

chronology, warning and impacts
Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation
(CVGHM) has operated a seismic network since 1982 on
Merapi to monitor volcanic activity. Beside seismicity, deformation, geochemistry, geological and visual observation methods are applied. Electronic Distance Measurement (EDM) is
conducted regularly with the reflectors installed on the

southern and western flanks. Meanwhile gas and temperature
monitoring is carried out by Ground SO2 UV DOAS discrete measurements, satellite SO2 (IASI, AIRS, and OMI),
temperature measurements of fumaroles are acquired at the
summit. Based on these data, CVGHM issues early warning
to the people living around the volcano.
Early sign of unrest volcanic activity is shown by a significant number of volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VT) which
were observed in October 31, 2009, December 9, 2009, June
10 and September 9, 2010. On September 20, 2010, Merapi
activity increased from the alert Level I (Normal) to Level II
(waspada stage) where the number of volcano-tectonic earthquake (VT) reached 11 events, multiphase (MP) attained 38
events and rockfall 3 events in a day. On 21 October 2010, the
state of activity was raised to Level III (siaga stage) since within a day the number of VT earthquake reached 17 events,
MP attained 150 events, 29 rockfall events were recorded and
the inflation rate of deformation was 17 cm. The high activity
of the volcano still continued as shown by an increasing number of VT earthquake (80 events), MP (588), rockfall (194)
and the rate of deformation inated 42 cm in a day causing a
rise of alert level to its highest level, Level IV (Awas stage)
on October 25, 2010. CVGHM recommended that people be
evacuated to a safe zone beyond 10 km in radius from the
summit.
During the 2010 crisis, the first eruption on October 26,
2010 generated pyroclastic ows, which travelled down to
* Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, Jalan Diponegoro 57, 40122 Bandung, Indonesia.
** BRGM, RNSC, 3 Avenue Claude Guillemin, BP36009, 45060 Orlans Cedex 2, France.
*** U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, USA.
**** Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire de Mtorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, France.
***** Michigan Technological University, Department of Geological/Mining Engineering & Sciences, USA.
Surono et al.
8 km into Kali Gendol, on southern flank of the volcano.

Since November 3, 2010, continuous and over scale tremor
occurred and thought to be associated with high-rate lava
dome growth. This activity reached its peak on November 5,
2010 when lava dome collapse generated pyroclastic ows
which traveled distances up to 15-16 km from the summit into
Kali Gendol. Between 26 October and 8 November 2010, the
series of eruption caused 367 victims, 277 injured, 410,388
evacuated as well as heavy damaged to infrastructures, houses
and agriculture areas. After November 8, Merapi activity uctuated and tended to decrease. On December 3, 2010, the alert
level was downgraded from Level IV to Level III. The total volume of the 2010 deposits, estimated from
field mapping is about 0.13 km3(Aisyah et
al., 2010). The deposits covering the slopes
of Merapi have and will generate lahars
during the rainy seasons and will threaten
people living along the riverbanks.
sed the headwall of the Kali Gendol drainage (Figs. 1a, 1b).
These data confirmed that the 2010 eruption did not begin
with extrusion of lava (as a characteristic for other recent
eruptions of Merapi) but instead with an explosive, cratering
event. This fact, along with subsequent evidence for very
rapid rates of dome growth (peaking at > 25 m3 s-1), reinforced CVGHM concerns that the 2010 eruption would be much
larger and more hazardous than those of the past century.
Between 26 October and 4 November, the lava dome grew
to ~5 106 m3 in volume (Fig. 1c). It was destroyed, however, during the explosive eruption on the night of 45 November, which greatly enlarged the new summit crater (Fig. 1c).
Remote sensing during

the 2010 crisis
Satellite remote sensing and other technical support were provided by international collaboration to CVGHM during
the October to November 2010 eruption. The high-resolution SAR systems
of the COSMO-SkyMed constellation,
RADARSAT and TerraSAR-X satellites,
supplied very detailed images of the volcano summit crater, rapidly growing
lava domes, vent features, and pyroclastic-flow deposits.
The explosive eruptions on 26 and 30 October removed the 2006 lava dome, deepened the summit crater, and deeply inciFig. 1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images of the summit of Mount Merapi bracketing the time of the 26 October explosive
eruption and the 45 November explosive
eruptions. G (Kali Gendol), K (Kali Kuning). a,
RADARSAT image, 11 October, 2010. Arrow indicates the 2006 lava dome. b, TerraSAR-X
image, 26 October, showing new summit crater
(arrow) produced by explosive eruption of
26 October. c, TerraSAR-X image, 4 Nov 2010,
showing large (~5 106 m3) lava dome (D) that
grew rapidly after the 26 October eruption and
was destroyed by the explosive eruption of
45 November. Pyroclastic flow deposits (PF)
from the 26 October eruption appear dark in
the radar images. d, RADARSAT image of 5
November, 2010, showing pyroclastic flow deposits (PF, dark gray) and surge deposits (S,
light gray). These deposits formed earlier during the main phase of the 45 November explosive eruption. An enlarged, elongate crater,
produced by the November 45 eruption is
also evident at the summit.
40
The role of remote sensing data during the 2010 crisis at Merapi Volcano
Fig. 2 Comparison between SO2 fluxes and RSAM data. a, Overview of Merapi volcano 2010 eruption degassing, described through
SO2 flux observations and upper-bound values of the plume altitude, which give an indirect estimation of the total flux of gases. b, RSAM
computed for the Plawangan station (6 km from the summit). A clear correspondence between RSAM and SO2 flux is demonstrated, supporting our identification of four distinct phases to the eruption (indicated by PHASE I to IV). E stands for explosion; L for Lahar.
It also produced a pyroclastic flow and surge that travelled

15-16 km from the summit in the direction of Yogyakarta,
shortly after the evacuation zone was extended to 20 km.
The surge affected an area of ~13 km2 (Fig. 1c) and was responsible for many of the fatalities. Post-eruption SAR imagery shows a new, roughly circular crater with a diameter of
~400 m, breeched on the southeast by a sloping trough that
extends 400 m down slope (Fig. 1c). The eruptions removed
large parts (~1020 106 m3) of the previously emplaced
summit dome complex. RADARSAT images collected on 6
November show that rapid extrusion resumed and produced a
new ~1.5 106 m3ava dome in <12 h at a minimum effusion
rate of ~35 m3 s-1. Dome growth ceased by 8 November but
was followed a period of dome subsidence and gas and ash
emissions from several vents adjacent to or penetrating the
new lava dome.
Combination of gas and ash plume remote sensing from
the ground (ultraviolet differential optical absorption spec-
troscopy, DOAS) and satellites (using IASI, AIRS and OMI

infrared and ultraviolet sensors), provided crucial information on degassing during the four stages of Merapis activity (Fig. 2). The late October plumes were fuelled by external water vaporized by ascending magma, and consistent with
the phreatomagmatic character of this phase of the eruption.
The SO2 flux then decreased to a relatively low level for this
eruption, but still at elevated levels compared to past Merapi
eruptions. It then increased significantly on 3 November, less
than two days before the climax on 45 November. The largest SO2 output, of ~ 0.28 Tg, was recorded on 5 November
by AIRS. Intriguingly, Fig. 2 suggests similar trends of degassing and RSAM during all phases of the eruption except
for one episode during the waning stage on 67 November
when the SO2 flux continued decreasing despite renewal of
seismicity. This could be explained by associated subsidence of the final lava dome, by hindered gas release, more
energetic harmonic tremor and lesser Vulcanian explosions.
41
Surono et al.
Conclusion
sensing from the ground and satellites provided crucial information on degassing during the four stages of its activity.
Between 26 October and 8 November 2010, Merapi Volcano produced its largest eruption in more than a century,
caused 367 fatalities, requiring the evacuation of an area of
about 1300 km2 and displacing 410,388 people. The eruption
had a rapid onset and relatively short duration as consequences
of rapid ascent of unusually gas-rich magma for Merapi. During the 2010 Merapi eruption, integration of ground observations and satellite remote sensing data for real-time and nearreal time monitoring has an important role in decision support,
especially regarding the ranges of exclusion zones. The repeated acquisition of spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar
(SAR) image data enabled monitoring of changes at the volcanos summit, despite the cloud cover during much of the
eruptive episode, and also mapping of the extent of pyroclastic density currents. Combination of gas and ash plume remote
42
References
Aisyah N., Sumarti S., Sayudi D. S., Budisantoso A., Muzani M.,
Dwiyono S., Sunarto, K. Aktivitas (2010) G. Merapi Periode
September Desember 2010 (Erupsi G. Merapi 26 oktober
7 November 2010). Bulletin Berkala Merapi 07/03, December.
Andreastuti S.D., Alloway B.V., Smith I.E.M. (2000) A detailed
tephrostratigraphic framework at Merapi Volcano, Central Java,
Indonesia: implications for eruption predictions and hazard assessment. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 100, 51-67.
Voight B., Constantine E. K., Sismowidjoyo S., Torley R. (2000)
Historical eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, 1768-1998. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 100, 69-138.
Detecting slip movement of Mayon volcano

from persistent scatterer interferometry
A.M.F. Lagmay*, M.G. Bato*,**, E.M.R Paguican*,**, H. Zebker***
Short abstract: Permanent Scatterer Interferometry conducted in Albay Province, Bicol, Philippines, reveal tectonic deformation of the
Oas graben, a northwest-trending structural depression on which Mayon Volcano is built. Differential movement between the northern
horst and graben, measured in terms of line-of-sight (LOS) change in the radar signal, is as much 2.5 cm/year. The northern horst moves
northwest while the graben moves mostly downward. Coupled with morphological interpretation, the results of the PSInSAR study,
suggests left-lateral oblique-slip movement of the northern bounding fault of the Oas graben. PSInSAR is a relatively new method of
interferometric processing that enables the detection of mm-scale deformation. The technique applies even in tropical regions where
conventional InSAR normally doesnt work due to temporal and spatial decorrelation. This paper demonstrates the functionality of
PSInSAR in a humid tropical region and highlights the probable landslide hazards associated with an oversteepened volcano that may
have been further destabilized by tectonic activity.
Key words: Permanent scatterer interferometry, PSInSAR, Mayon volcano, Oas graben, Legaspi lineament.
Introduction
One of the hazards associated with a steeply-sided volcano
is large-scale failure of its edifice. Known occurences of sector failure in volcanoes worldwide occur with or without an
associated eruption. Mayon, with its greater than 35 slopes,
has inherent instability (Siebert, 1984) that can be aggravated by hydrothermal processes and tectonic movement (Lagmay et al., 2000). To investigate the role of tectonics on the
stability of Mayon, Permanent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PSInSAR) was used to measure ground
motion in the region where its edifice is erected. In particular, the fault blocks comprising the northwest-trending Oas
Graben is examined in terms of sense and rate of movement.
The importance of determining activity of the upper fault
boundary of the Oas Graben is highlighted since its trace projects into the base of Mayons edifice, possibly traversing the
cone and contributing further to its instability.
Methods
PSInSAR is a new method of interferometric processing
that overcomes the limitations of conventional Synthetic
Aperture Radar differential interferometry (DInSAR) and is
capable of detecting millimeter scale ground displacements.
It measures the change in the distance from the satellite to the
ground by determining the phase difference in the radar
wavelength between different satellite passes. PSInSAR eliminate anomalies due to atmospheric delays and temporal and
geometric decorrelation (Burgmann et al., 2000) eminent in
tropical regions by exploiting the temporal and spatial char-
acteristics of radar interferometric signatures derived from

time-coherent point-wise targets. These point-wise targets
are radar bright and radar-phase stable such as built-ups,
rock-outcrops and corner reflectors (Ferretti et al., 2000; Ferretti et al., 2001; Ferretti et al., 2004). Persistent point-wise
targets that exist in multiple SAR acquisitions are called
persistent scatterers and are used to improve the signal-tonoise ratio by separating a modeled deformation rate from atmospheric and elevation error components in the measured
range change (Colesanti et al., 2003). Changes in the phase
signal of persistent scatterers is required not to exceed 2 (radiation wavelength), to prevent ambiguities in the measured
phase difference. The principle behind PSInSAR makes it
suitable to perform time-series analysis of ground deformation in areas where conventional InSAR or dInSAR may fail.
In this study, a total of 47 combined descending ERS1-2
and ascending ENVISAT raw 0 data were processed using
StaMPS (Hooper et al., 2004; Hooper 2006), now named as
MAINSAR. The imageries were archived from 1993-2000
and 2003-2006, for ERS1-2 and ENVISAT, respectively.
Moreover, fieldwork on the flanks of Mayon as well as on
the surrounding areas was conducted to relate the PSInSAR
results from the regional stress regime in the volcano.
Results
Interferograms
The interferograms generated from both the ascending
and descending data show coherence in the urban areas of
the cities in Legaspi, Tabaco and Ligao as well as along the
** Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Universit Blaise Pascal, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France.
*** Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, Panama Mall, Stanford, 94045, CA, USA.
A.M.F. Lagmay et al.
roads that interconnect these cities where houses have been

built. Other areas which show coherence are the 1984, 1993
and 1999 lava flows that have been deposited in the southwest flank of the volcano.
Ascending data pairs

Permanent scatterers in the interferograms from 20032006 show distinct movement as suggested by the change in
the line-of-sight of the radar sensor, which looks down at an
incidence angle of 23.5 from the west-southwest. The northern horst of the Oas Graben (red dots) moves toward the radar
sensor with a line-of-sight change as much as -4.7 radians
(Fig. 1a). The graben (downthrown block), on the other hand,
is generally dotted with blue, indicating movement away
from the radar sensor by as much as 3.35 radians change,
respectively. Yellow- and red-colored permanent scatterers
are also found on Mayons cone suggesting inflation towards the satellite.
Descending data pairs

The descending data show a distinct distribution of permanent scatterers represented by blue- to red-colored dots
(Fig. 1b). The northern horst of the Oas Graben is dominated by permanent scatterers (blue dots) that show an increase
in line-of-sight of a radar satellite, which looks down from the

east-southeast with an incidence angle of 24.8. This change
in range is equivalent to 3 radians. The graben (downthrown
block) is also characterized by an increase in line-of-sight of
the radar sensor with the exception of orange to yellow-colored permanent scatterers on Mayon volcano which depict
movement towards the imaging satellite.
Fieldwork results
Fieldwork conducted within the vicinity of Mayon volcano
shows the presence of fractures both on the west and east
flanks of the volcano. Basud river, which is located at the eastern flank of Mayon, exposed fractures hosted in indurated pyroclastic flow and lahar deposits of up to 900 m in length.
Relay and right stepping fractures in lahar deposit, Riedel
shears and structural wedges are found near the bend of the
Basud river. Fractures on the western flank exposed along
Baligang and Masarawag rivers are steeply dipping and measured an aperture of about 1 to 2 mm. The deposits observed
are 3 to 4 m thick and lies in an indurated lahar and terrace deposits. The mean orientations of the fractures in the west flank
are N57W and N66E, whereas the east flank recorded
N44W and N48E. When plotted in a rose diagram (Fig. 2), a
dominant northwest trending measurement and a minor northeast trending can be observed. Geophysical surveys conducted
Fig. 1a and 1b Velocity of permanent scatterers for the ascending and descending data. The letter A in the arrow symbol is the
azimuth of the radar sensor and L is the look direction. Opposing colors in the ascending and descending data indicate a horizontal component.
44
Detecting Slip Movement of Mayon Volcano from Persistent Scatterer Interferometry
Fig. 2 Rose diagrams of fractures measured on the west

and east flanks of Mayon Volcano.
around the base of Mayon reveal

gravity and magnetic anomalies
on both the east and west flanks
of Mayon (Fig. 3).
Discussion
The differential change in
LOS of the unwrapped phase
signal from permanent scatterers in urban areas of Tabaco,
Legaspi, Ligao and Oas indicate
strain along the northern fault
boundary of the Oas Graben.
The northern horst, with a decrease in LOS from the east-looking ascending imageries and increase in LOS from the westlooking descending imageries suggest horizontal movement and
possible uplift. The differential rate in range change observed in
the ascending and descending imageries further suggest leftlateral motion. This interpretation is valid on the premise
that the motion vector of the northern horst from the period
1993-2000 and 2003-2006 has been constant in direction.

The graben, with the exception of areas on Mayons cone,
is interpreted to be moving downward. This is suggested by
the increasing LOS from the ground to the satellite sensor
in both ascending and descending imageries. Subsidence in
some areas of the graben is as much as 10.1 mm/yr. Inflation observed on Mayons cone may be due to the rise of
Fig.3 Results of gravity and magnetic surveys on the west and east flanks of Mayon Volcano. Lower profiles shows gravity and magnetic anomalies as the survey line transects lineaments corresponding to the northern fault of the Oas Graben.
45
A.M.F. Lagmay et al.
magma associated with eruptive periods in 1993, 1999,

2000 and 2006. The inflation on Mayon cone masks detection of possible horizontal movement of the graben. The
occurence of differential movement between the northern
horst and the downthrown block of the Oas Graben suggest
the presence of a fault underlying Mayon volcano. This is
consistent with the left-lateral shear of the northern fault
boundary of the Oas Graben detected from dGPS data collected around Mayon Volcano with a maximum rate of
movement of about 1 cm per year (Bacolcol, 2011, personal communication).
Field structures hosted in the volcanic products of Mayon
are interpreted as shear fractures. The consistency of its orientation associated to the regional stress indicates a tectonic origin of its existence. The consequence of tectonic movement on Mayon volcano is further destabilization of an inherently unstable cone. Deformation of an edifice by either
normal or strike-slip faulting (Francis and Self, 1987; Tibaldi, 1995; Lagmay et al., 2000; Lagmay et al., 2005) can
weaken the structure of the volcanic edifice and create structural discontinuities that may provide sliding planes in the
event of gravitational collapse.
Conclusion
Permanent Scatterer Interferometry on a time series of
ERS-1, ERS-2 and ENVISAT imageries was applied for
volcano tectonic investigation of Mayon volcano. The results indicate differential motion between the northern horst
and the downthrown block of the Oas Graben. Coupled with
morphological analysis and the field data in the area of
study, there is evidence to believe the presence of an active
fault, hereby called as the Oas Fault. This structure strikes
northwest and can be seen to project towards the base of the
western flank of Mayon, where it disappears beneath the
cone. PSInSAR analysis, however, reveal the continuation
of the Oas Fault beneath Mayon volcano as suggested by
differential movement of permanent scatterers north and
south of its edifice. The presence of an active fault has implications in the hazards assessment of Mayon volcano. This
volcano with its steep-sided flanks is inherently unstable,
and is further being destablized by tectonic movement. Such
instability may eventually lead to catastrophic failure. As
such, the results of this study can be used as basis for the
mitigation of a hazard at Mayon, which may or may not be
accompanied by an eruptive event.
46
References
Brgmann R., Rosen P., Fielding E. (2000) Synthetic aperture
radar interferometry to measure Earths surface topography and
its deformation. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
28, 169209.
Colesanti C., Ferretti A., Novali F., Prati C., and Rocca F. (2003)
SAR monitoring of progressive and seasonal ground deformation using the permanent scatterers technique. IEEE Transanctions Geoscience Remote Sensing 41, 7, 16851701.
Ferretti F., Novali F., Burgmann R., Hilley G., Prati C. (2004)
InSAR Permanent Scatterer analysis reveals ups and downs in
San Francisco Bay area. EOS, 85, 34, 13.
Ferretti F., Prati C., Rocca F. (2000) Non-linear subsidence rate
estimation using permanent scatterers in differential SAR Interferometry. IEEE Transactions Geoscience Remote Sensing 38, 5,
22022212.
Ferretti F., Prati C., Rocca F. (2001) Permanent scatterers in SAR Interferometry. IEEE IEEE Transactions Geoscience Remote Sensing 39, 1, 820.
Francis P., Self S. (1987) Collapsing Volcanoes. Scientific American 256, 7289.
Hooper A. (2006) Persistent Scatterer Radar Interferometry for
Crustal Deformation Studies and Modeling of Volcanic Deformation. Ph.D. thesis, Stanford University.
Hooper A., Zebker, Segall P., Kampes B. (2004) A New
Method for Measuring Deformation on Volcanoes and Other
Natural Terrains Using InSAR Persistent Scatterers. Geophysical Research Letters, L23611.
Kampes B., Hanssen R., Perski Z. (2003) Radar Interferometry
with Public Domain Tools. In: Proceeding of FRINGE 2003.
December 1-5, Frascati, Italy, 2003.
Lagmay A., Tengonciang A., Uy H. (2005) Structural setting of
the Bicol Basin and kinematic analysis of fractures on Mayon volcano, Philippines. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 144, 2336.
Lagmay A., van Wyk de Vries B., Kerle N., Pyle D. (2000) Volcano instability induced by strike-slip faulting. Bulletin of
Volcanology 62, 331346.
Siebert L. (1984) Large volcanic debris avalanches: characteristic of source areas, deposits and associated eruptions. Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research 22, 163197.
Tibaldi A. (1995) Morphology of pyroclastic cones and tectonics. Journal of Geophysical Research 100, 2452124535.
Zebker H. (2000), Studying the Earth with interferometric radar.
Computing in Science and Enginee0ring 2, 3, 5260.
Sand dune conservation zone based on tsunami

inundation hazard in Parangtritis coastal area,
Bantul regency, Yogyakarta special province:
Remote sensing and Geographic Information
System application
R. F. Putri*, D. Mardiatno*, J. Sartohadi**, J. T. Sri Sumantyo***
Short abstract: Tsunami waves occurred in the South Java Coastal Area and destructed the coastal area of West Java, Central Java, and
Yogyakarta Special Province. Sand dune in Parangtritis coastal area has a function such as a barrier to threat tsunami hazard. Remote
sensing technology and Geographic Information System become one of data source, in particular like Disaster Information System. The
objectives of this research are: (1) To make spatial distribution of tsunami inundation hazard using Remote Sensing & GIS application
(Direction wave), (2) To make Tsunami Inundation Scenario Hazard based on the Tsunami events in the Parangtritis Coastal Area using
distance and friction map function. (Elevation inundation scenario wave), (3) To make Sand dune zone mapping using topographic data
map analysis, and (4) To make sand dune conservation zone based on distribution tsunami inundation hazard zone and coastal regulation
zone analysis. Sand dune conservation zone mapping will be correlated with coastal regulation zone in Parangtritis coastal area,
Determination of the sand dune conservation zone has purpose to optimize sand dune function as a barrier tsunami inundation hazard.
CRZ-I are ecologically sensitive areas where activities are largely prohibited (explicitly mandates the protection of sand dunes). CRZII are developed areas for agriculture land cultivation. CRZ-III comprise all rural areas as well as undeveloped areas in urban limits.
The result of this research are: (1) Tsunami inundation zone with southeast wave direction scenario, it can to determination area for sand
dunes area will be conserved, such as CRZ I approximately 362.100 hectares (87.12%), CRZ II approximately 53.217 hectares (12.80%)
and CRZ III approximately 0.307 hectares (0.07%); (2) The tsunami inundation scenario (southwest wave direction) has 87.12% CRZ
I with an area of about 362.058 ha, CRZ II (12.80%) with an area around 53.213 ha, and CRZ III (0.073%) with an area of 0.307 ha;
(3) Coastal Regulation Zone based on tsunami inundation of west wave direction scenario such as CRZ I approximately
362.193 hectares (78.48%) are ecologically sensitive areas where activities are largely prohibited (explicitly mandates the protection of
sand dunes), CRZ II approximately 77.923 Ha (18, 74%) are developed acres agriculture land areas for cultivation and CRZ III
approximately 11.503 hectares (2.76%); (4) Coastal Regulation Zone based on tsunami inundation of south wave direction scenario such
as CRZ I approximately 360,107 hectares (86,56 %) are ecologically sensitive areas where activities are largely prohibited (explicitly
mandates the protection of sand dunes), CRZ II approximately 55,606 Ha (13,36 %) are developed acres agriculture land areas for
cultivation and CRZ III approximately 0,307 hectares (0,07 %) comprise all rural areas as well as undeveloped areas in the urban limits.
Keywords: sand dune conservation, tsunami inundation hazard, remote sensing, Geographic Information System.
Introduction
Big Earthquake generating tsunami occurred in the southern coastal of Java on 17 July 2006, there was a Tsunami
waves occurred in the South Java Coastal Area and destructed the coastal area of West Java, Central Java, and Yogyakarta Special Province. Tsunami also occured in Pangandaran, Cilacap and Kebumen. Many coastal areas in West
Java (Pangandaran), Central Java (Cilacap and Kebumen),
and Yogyakarta were affected. More than 600 people died
* Faculty of Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia.

** Research Center For Disaster, Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia.
*** Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Japan.
and hundreds of houses were completely damaged. Run-up

generation was recorded in various heights, from 3 5 meters and in some places more than 5 meters. The impacts of
the Tsunami depend on how far Tsunami can move directly
to inland. It can be more than 300 meters inland and makes
more destruction in the coastal area. Tempo (19th July 2006)
reported that the most effected area in Tasikmalaya, were
Cipatujah and CikalongSub-districts[1].
Coastal area is very dynamic and constantly changing (Bird
et al., 1980). The change in the coast of Indonesia consists
R.T. Putri et al.
Fig. 1 Parangtritis Study Area.
of short term, medium term and long term changes that can be
seen as various kind of natural hazards, gradual or intermittent advance or retreat shoreline and those such as land uplift
of subsidence or sea level rise and fall. Southern part coastal
zone of Parangtritis has an unique sand dune phenomena.
Sand dune in this area is considered as the only one sand dune
in South East Asia. Sand deposits in Parangtritis consists of
beach sand and sand dune. That sand deposit in Parangtritis
was composed of volcanic sand. Sand dune in Parangtritis area
has a function such as a barrier to threat tsunami hazard. The
study area of research can be shown in Figure 1.
Methods
The inundation zone due to tsunami would be determined
using the predicted water depth scenario. This study intends to
identify the inundation zone of the hypothetical water depth
scenario and sand dune actual mapping using SAR data analysis. Unfortunately, we exclude the physical mechanisms or
hydrodynamic characteristics of tsunami during generation,
propagation, or inundation. Moreover, we do not consider factor such as tsunami source region and coastal configuration
during inundation. Determination of the conservation zone
has purpose to optimize sand dune function as a barrier
tsunami inundation hazard. This research area will be classified into 3 Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) (Namboothri et
48
al., 2008). CRZ-I are ecologically sensitive areas where activities are largely prohibited (explicitly mandates the protection of sand dunes). CRZ-II are developed areas for agriculture land cultivation. CRZ-III comprise all rural areas as well
as undeveloped areas in urban limits. However, this would
make the methodology attractive for local authorities and
coastal manager to use.
Results
Total percentage of CRZ area is obtained based on data calculation sand dunes area is flooded by the tsunami inundation
scenario. Based on Table 3.2. indicates that the tsunami inundation scenario (southwest wave direction) has 87.12% CRZ
I with an area of about 362.058 ha, CRZ II (12.80%) with an
area arround 53.213 ha, and CRZ III (0.073%) with an area of
0.307 ha. Sand dune conservation is needed in Coastal Regulation Zone I, this areas are ecologically sensitive areas
where activities are largely prohibited (explicitly mandates
the protection of sand dunes). In Parangtritis Coastal Area,
though the dune systems are protected by CRZ regulations
they are still facing many anthropogenic stresses. There has
been considerable amount of citizen action over the protection of sand dunes. Coastal Regulation Zone based on tsunami inundation of west wave direction scenario such as CRZ
I approximately 362.193 hectares (78.48%) are ecologically
Sand dune conservation zone based on tsunami inundation hazard
Fig. 2 Coastal regulation zone map based on tsunami Inundation scenario (A) West wave direction, (B) Southwest wave direction,
(C) South wave direction, and (D) Southeast wave direction.
sensitive areas where activities are

largely prohibited (explicitly mandates the protection of sand dunes),
CRZ II approximately 77.923 Ha
(18, 74%) are developed acres agriculture land areas for cultivation
and CRZ III approximately 11.503
hectares (2.76%) comprise all rural
areas as well as undeveloped areas in
urban limits. Table 1 and figure 2
shows coastal regulation zone of
Parangtritis Coastal Area.
Tsunami
Inundation Area
(Wave Direction)
CRZ 1
CRZ II
CRZ III
Hectare (Ha)
Hectare (Ha)
Hectare (Ha)
West
326.19
78.48
77.92
18.74
11.50
2.76
Southwest
361.05
87.12
53.21
12.80
0.31
0.07
South
360.10
86.56
55.60
13.36
0.317
0.07
Southeast
362.10
87.12
53.21
12.80
0.31
0.07
Tab. 1 Coastal regulation zone based on tsunami inundation area (Source : Data Calculation, 2010).
Discussion
Coastal Regulation Zone based on tsunami inundation of
south wave direction scenario such as CRZ I approximately
360,107 hectares (86,56 %) are ecologically sensitive areas
where activities are largely prohibited (explicitly mandates the
protection of sand dunes), CRZ II approximately 55,606 Ha
(13,36 %) are developed acres agriculture land areas for cultivation and CRZ III approximately 0,307 hectares (0,07 %)
comprise all rural areas as well as undeveloped areas in the
urban limits. Based on the analysis of tsunami inudation zone
with southeast wave direction scenario, it can to determination
area for sand dunes area will be conserved, such as CRZ I approximately 362.100 hectares (87.12%), CRZ II approximately 53.217 hectares (12.80%) and CRZ III approximately 0.307
hectares (0.07%). This result shows that 87.12% of the total
coastal area used as a san dune conservation zone. Determination of the conservation zone has purpose to optimize sand dune
function as a barrier tsunami inundation hazard. The salient recommendations and suggested action of this research area are
(a) Develop and promote planning policies and procedures
which will aim to prevent or minimize further losses of sand
dune habitat because of development, (b) Develop and promote
coastal zone management policies which allow the maximum
possible free movement of coastal sediment and pay full re-
49
R.T. Putri et al.
gard to the conservation of sand dunes. Include in Shoreline

Management Plans where they have a role to play in flood defence, and (c) Raise public awareness about the importance of
sand dunes, and the essential mobility of coasts and the value
of maintaining unrestricted coastal processes. Promote awareness of the implications of the policies outlined in this plan
among decision-makers.
Conclusion
Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System application can be used to generate tsunami hazard map included
with mitigating the natural disaster. The study of sand dune
areas is challenging, as not only does the land cover vary in
space and time, the topographic features of the landscape may
change over short time spans of several years with interferometric SAR technique can investigate the presence of subtle
surface changes. The availability of a recent DEM, site survey
and control data are very useful for maximizing the accuracy of
the horizontal positioning InSAR data to make sand dune zone
mapping and these data help to provide a means to interpret the
InSAR-derived movement information to determine the overall impact of any significant movement. Tsunami inundation
zone with southeast wave direction scenario, it can to determination area for sand dunes area will be conserved, such as CRZ
50
I are ecologically sensitive areas where activities are largely

prohibited (explicitly mandates the protection of sand dunes),
CRZ II are developed areas for agriculture land cultivation and
CRZ III are comprise all rural areas as well as undeveloped
areas in urban limits.
Acknowledgment
The authors would like to thank Beasiswa Unggulan BPKLN
DIKNAS Indonesia (Bureau of Planning and International Cooperation of Ministry of National Education), Center for
Environmental Remote Sensing Chiba University and Faculty of Geography Gadjah Mada University (Double Degree
MPPDAS UGM) for the support of this paper.
References
Bird E.C.F., O.S.R. Ongkosongo (1980) Environmental Changes
on The Coast of Indonesia. United Nation University: United Nation University Press.
Namboothri N., Subramanian D., Muthuraman B. (2008)
Beyond the Tsunami: Coastal Sand Dunes of Tamil Nadu, India
(An Overview). United Nations India, United Nations Development Programme and Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and
the Environment. India.
[1] http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov; spatial data source of tsunami events
database, 27 July 2006.
Evacuation route determination for tsunami

mitigation using remote sensing data and
Geographic Information Systems at Parangtritis
coastal area, Yogyakarta-Indonesia
D. Mardiatno*, R.F. Putri*, M. Susmayadi**, D.S. Sayudi***
Short abstract: This research aims to generate tsunami hazard model by applying different run up scenarios and to determine the
evacuation route for tsunami mitigation. Parangtritis coastal area was selected as the research area since that location experienced to
Java tsunami 2006. Some data such as high resolution image, SRTM image, topographical map, and statistical data are used in this
research. The 15 m value was estimated as the possible maximum run up with regard to historical tsunami data in south Java. The results
show that some locations will be at the high and very high hazard to tsunami for 5 m, 10 m and 15 m run up scenario. There are
10 vulnerable points for evacuation, i.e. nearby shoreline, at the middle of the coastal area, and at the side of Opak River. Both horizontal
and vertical evacuations are possibly applied in this area. Pathways should also be utilized more effectively for evacuation routes.
Keywords: evacuation route, horizontal evacuation, tsunami mitigation, run up, Parangtritis.
Introduction
South Java is a part of the Java Island, Indonesia, which is
exposed directly to the subduction zone between the IndiaAustralian Plate and Eurasian Plate. This region is very
vulnerable to earthquakes and tsunamis triggered by earthquakes. Since 1920 twelve earthquakes have been recorded
while two of them causing deadly tsunamis, i.e. in 1994 and
2006. The 3 June 1994 tsunami in Banyuwangi (East Java)
triggered by an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw)
7.6 killed more than 200 people. The second tsunami affected
a wider area, from eastern part of West Java Province (Garut
district) through Yogyakarta Special Region (Gunungkidul
district). It was triggered by an earthquake with moment magnitude (Mw) 7.7, located in 34 km of depth in the Indian
Ocean.
As South Java has significant experience of tsunamis, i.e.
in 1994 and 2006, it is necessary to establish such mitigation
programs as an inseparable part of tsunami risk reduction.
The lowland area at the southern coast of Java is at very high
risk to tsunamis (Mardiatno, 2008), as shown by the occurrence of tsunami events in 1994 and 2006 which caused
many fatalities. Since 2008, German-Indonesia Tsunami
Early Warning Systems (GITEWS) and Ina TEWS have prepared the setting-up of TEWS which is derived from the assumption that most tsunamis are preceded by a clear signal
from a major earthquake.
Parangtritis is one of the most popular tourist destinations

located at South Java region, i.e. in Yogyakarta Special Region Province. It is bordered by coastal alluvial plain in the
north, escarpment in the east, Opak river in the west and Indian Ocean in the south (fig. 1). This area is utilized by local
inhabitants mainly for tourism supporting activities and
agriculture.
This coastal area was selected as the research area since
that location experienced to Java tsunami 2006. Some infrastructures were damaged and several people had injuries.
Based on that experience, it is necessary to strengthen more
efforts at mitigating tsunami, such as by utilizing more evacuation way. This research aims to generate tsunami hazard
model by applying different run up scenarios and to determine the evacuation route for tsunami mitigation.
Method
This research used some data such as high resolution
image, SRTM image, topographical map, and statistical data.
Image processing software and GIS software were used for
data analysis. Elevation data was derived from SRTM data.
Visual and digital image interpretation was conducted for
enhancing several objects related to the evacuation effort if
tsunami occurs. Both elevation and image interpretation
results were validated by conducting a couple days of field
work.
* Geography Faculty, Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

** Research Center for Disaster, Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
*** National Coordination Agency for Surveying and Mapping (BAKOSURTANAL), Cibinong, Indonesia.
D. Mardiatno et al.
Fig. 1 Location and landscape of Parangtritis area.
For tsunami hazard assessment, run up scenarios were

determined by selecting 1 m, 2 m, 5 m, 10 m and 15 m of
height. The 15 m value was estimated as the possible maximum run up with regard to historical tsunami data in south
Java. Evacuation time was calculated by referring to Sugimoto et al. (2003), estimating the walking speed for group
of elderly people is 0,75 m/sec
Results and Discussion
pathways are located either on the flat or hilly topography

and they have a relative good condition.
Furthermore, according to Table 1, it can be seen that segment 2 has the longest distance to the shelter while segment 3
has the shortest. If evacuation will be carried out on the hilly
topography, it is assumed that the time will be more 10% from
the initial estimation. The longest time will be about 53 minutes and the shortest time is about 4 minutes. This is a rough
estimation. If hill slope is steeper, time for people movement
on the roads or pathways can be up to 50% from the initial
estimation. With regard to GITEWS - Ina TEWS role, the
travel time to the shelter or safe area is about twenty minutes.
According to that role, four routes (segment 1, segment 2,
segment 8, and segment 13) should be improved by adding
some shelters to reduce the evacuation time.
Local community in this area has a good capacity to response
to the threat such as tsunami (Sunarto et al., 2010). People have
Based on the tsunami hazard analysis result, some locations will be at the high and very high hazard to tsunami for
5m, 10m and 15m run up scenario. For 1m and 2m run up
scenarios, the lower hazard levels become more dominant.
Giyanto et al. (2008) mentioned that 75% of Parangtritis
area is very vulnerable to tsunami disaster with regard to
historical tsunami database, distance from the shoreline, and
morphological condition of this coastal area.
Evacuation effort is one of several alternatives
Distance to shelter
Time to nearest
Segment
(m)
shelter (min)
to reduce the tsunami risk.
Time for evacuation was planned for 40 min1
1315,6
29,2
utes maximum after the earthquake (GITEWS,
2
2199,8
48,9
in Dewi, 2010). Cahyono (2009) found that
3
168,4
3,7
there are 10 vulnerable points for evacuation in
4
494,1
11,0
case of tsunami. They are located nearby shoreline, at the middle of the coastal area, and at the
5
330,9
7,4
side of Opak River. Based on the evacuation
6
430,3
9,6
routes proposed by Cahyono (2009), more de7
742,0
16,5
tail routes were generated by utilizing a high
8
951,8
21,2
resolution image (Fig. 2a). The routes were divided into 14 segments, which are explained in
9
522,2
11,6
Table 1. The detail features of both two sample
10
585,4
13,0
places are shown in Figure 2b.
11
665,5
14,8
As shown in Figure 2 (b), it is necessary to
12
540,9
12,0
identify more narrow pathways for evacuation
routes. Although several pathways are very dif13
878,5
19,5
ficult interpreted from the image, they can be
14
312,3
6,9
identified from field work. They are always associated to the settlements or main road. These Tab. 1 The characteristic of evacuation route segment.
52
Topography
Flat
Flat and hilly
Flat and hilly
Flat and hilly
Flat
Flat and hilly
Flat and hilly
Flat
Flat and hilly
Hilly
Hilly
Hilly
Hilly
Hilly
Evacuation Route Determination of Tsunami Mitigation
Fig. 2 A. Modified evacuation route plan adopted from Cahyono (2009). B. Detail images of two samples in the west part (above)
and east part (below).
improved their capacity to reduce the tsunami risk by strengthening the institutional system as well as the supporting facilities.
Thus, improvements on evacuation systems will be more easily
applied since the people awareness are quite high.
Conclusions
High resolution image can provide useful information for
evacuation planning. Some relevant objects can be easily
identified, such as main roads and wide pathways, although
narrow pathways are difficult interpreted from the image.
Narrow pathways could be identified during field verification and then added at re-interpretation phase. Both horizontal and vertical evacuations are possibly applied in this
area. It is necessary to utilize more pathways for vertical
evacuation because of their availability at the hillsides.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank to the Head of Parangtritis Geospatial Laboratory (Mr Ari Dartoyo) for the partial
support in conducting field work.
References
Cahyono A. (2009) Penentuan Jalur Evakuasi Tsunami dalam
Berbagai Variasi Ketinggian Gelombang Tsunami di Wilayah Pe-
sisir Bantul Yogyakarta. B.Sc. Thesis, Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta.
Dewi R.S. (2010) A GIS-based Approach to the Selection of
Evacuation Shelter Buildings and Routes for Tsunami Risk Reduction, a case study of Cilacap Coastal Area, Indonesia. M.Sc.
Thesis, Double Degree M.Sc. Program of Universitas Gadjah
Mada and International Institute for Geo-Information Science
and Earth Observation (ITC), Yogyakarta-Enschede.
Giyanto R.C.S., Santosa L.W., Sartohadi J., Suratman (2008)
Identification of Coastal Area Damage Using Remote Sensing
and Geographic Information System in Parangtritis, Yogyakarta,
in Umitsu M. and Takahashi M. (eds.), Geomorphological Comparative Research on Natural Disaster Mitigation in the Coastal
Regions of Tropical Asia. Proceedings of Phuket, Ho Chi Minh,
and Pattaya Conferences, JSPS Asia and Africa Science Platform Program, Nagoya University, Japan.
Mardiatno D. (2008) Tsunami Risk Assessment Using Scenariobased Approach, Geomorphological Analysis, and Geographic
Information System A case study in the South Coastal Area of
Java Island, Indonesia. PhD Thesis, Faculty of Geo- and Atmospheric Science, University of Innsbruck, Austria.
Sugimoto T., Murakami H., Kozuki Y., Nishikawa K. (2003) A
Human Damage Prediction Method for Tsunami Disasters Incorporating Evacuation Activities. Natural Hazards 29, 585600.
Sunarto, Marfai M.A., Mardiatno D. (eds.) (2010) Multirisk
Assessment of Disasters in Parangtritis Coastal Area. Gadjah
Mada University Press, Yogyakarta.
53
Remote sensing of volcanic emissions

in the Asia-Pacific region
S.A. Carn*
Short abstract: Numerous satellite sensors now provide SO2 measurements, some with sensitivity to passive degassing. Satellite constellations (e.g., the A-Train) permit sensor synergy and 3D analysis of volcanic emissions. Tropical volcanic SO2 emissions are
impacted by sub-surface scrubbing and atmospheric cloud-processing. CO2 and H2S are better candidates for geochemical monitoring,
but are difficult to measure by remote sensing. Satellite SO2 data provided critical observations during the 2010 Merapi and 2005 Anatahan eruptions.
Keyword: remote sensing, sulfur dioxide, volcanic emissions, Merapi, Anatahan.
Introduction
Satellite remote sensing of volcanic

emissions
The SE Asia-Pacific region contains the worlds highest

concentration of active or potentially active volcanoes. Indonesia alone contains 76 historically active volcanoes; the
highest concentration of any country, and has more dated eruptions than any nation except Japan (Simkin and Siebert, 1994).
These eruptions include rare, cataclysmic paroxysms such as
the 1883 Krakatau eruption, but also the frequent smaller explosive eruptions that can affect the regions airspace on a
weekly basis. Coupled with the growth in air traffic within and
across the region (e.g., between Japan and Australia), and the
presence of major hub airports such as Singapore, the result is
a high vulnerability to the hazards associated with drifting
volcanic eruption clouds. These include direct hazards to aviation from drifting volcanic ash, which can melt upon ingestion into the hot sections of jet engines and cause engine failure. In June 1982, a British Airways Boeing 747 en route from
Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) to Perth (Australia) encountered an
ash cloud from the erupting Galunggung volcano (West Java),
causing a quadruple engine shut-down and a near catastrophe,
before the engines were restarted and a safe landing in Jakarta
was achieved (Johnson and Casadevall, 1994). This event and
other volcanic ash encounters triggered the development of the
International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW), which set up
the infrastructure required to provide timely warnings of volcanic ash hazards to aviation (e.g., Tupper et al., 2007). Satellite remote sensing plays a crucial role in tracking volcanic
ash clouds and here we review recent developments in the
field, providing some specific examples from Southeast
Asia, and also show how satellite data can contribute to routine volcano monitoring in the region.
The synoptic perspective of satellite remote sensing provides the most effective means of detecting and tracking
hazardous volcanic clouds, and there are currently numerous space-borne instruments capable of measuring volcanic
emissions of ash and sulfur dioxide (SO2), some in near realtime (NRT) (Carn et al., 2009). Although SO2 is typically
the third most abundant gas species in volcanic emissions,
after water vapor (H2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2), the latter species are abundant in the ambient atmosphere and
hence the volcanic signal is very difficult to isolate via remote sensing. However, SO2, which has very few major
sources in most regions other than degassing volcanoes, and
which also has strong absorption bands at ultraviolet (UV)
and infrared (IR) wavelengths, can be easily measured using
remote sensing from a range of platforms (ground-based,
airborne or spaceborne). Measurements of SO2 are also advantageous since volcanic SO2 emissions tend to increase
prior to a magmatic eruption as rising magma nears the surface, providing some potential for eruption warnings (e.g.,
Daag et al., 1996). A significant development over the last
decade has been the emergence of satellite instruments capable of detecting volcanic SO2 emissions in the lower troposphere on a daily basis, such as the UV Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASAs Aura satellite (launched in
July 2004). This capability permits detection of passive volcanic degassing (e.g., Fig. 1), which broadens the applications of satellite measurements to include routine volcanic
surveillance (e.g., Carn et al., 2008). Satellite data have also
been used to quantify hydrogen chloride (HCl) and bromine
monoxide (BrO) in volcanic emissions (e.g., Theys et al.,
*Department of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, USA.
S. A. Carn
2009), but these measurements are relatively rare and not

useful for routine monitoring. Prata (2009) provides an
overview of the techniques and sensors used to retrieve volcanic ash abundance from satellite measurements.
As mentioned above there are numerous UV and IR instruments on polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites capable of quantifying volcanic SO2 emissions (including OMI,
GOME-2, SCIAMACHY, AIRS, IASI, MODIS, ASTER and
SEVIRI), which in concert provide several overpasses per
day and improve temporal resolution. A further recent development has been the deployment of a satellite constellation
called the A-Train (the A refers to the local afternoon overpass time of the satellites), consisting (currently) of 4 spacecraft spaced a few minutes apart in polar orbit at ~700 km altitude. The satellites (Aura, CALIPSO, CloudSat and Aqua)
carry several sensors capable of mapping volcanic SO2 and
ash emissions (including OMI, AIRS and MODIS), in addition to a space-borne lidar (CALIOP on CALIPSO) and radar
(CloudSat) that can provide vertical profiles through volcanic
clouds. The proximity of the A-Train satellite orbits provides
near-coincident measurements from each instrument. Synergy between UV measurements of SO2, which are sensitive to
the total atmospheric column, and IR soundings at wavelengths of 7.3 m, which are sensitive to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, provides information on SO2
altitude and hence potential hazards and climate impacts.
The result is a new capability for 3D visualization of volcanic clouds and multi-spectral data synergy, given optimal
timing of the A-Train measurements relative to the eruption
time. The A-Train observations of volcanic cloud altitude are
particularly valuable given the importance of this parameter
for aviation hazards. Synergy between A-Train sensors has
also been valuable for validation of retrieval
algorithms.
There are substantial challenges involved
with remote sensing of volcanic emissions
in the moist tropics. These include abundant
atmospheric water vapor, which can completely obscure the volcanic emissions (e.g.,
through deposition of ice onto volcanic ash
particles; Rose et al., 1995), and near-permanent meteorological cloud cover, which
obscures active volcanic vents (orographic
clouds) and may prevent detection of precursory eruptive activity. Furthermore, convective instability in tropical atmospheres
can amplify the column height and resulting impact of small

volcanic eruptions through release of latent heat (Tupper et
al., 2009). Solutions to these problems include using SO2
measurements as a proxy for volcanic ash, since SO2 is typically less affected by water vapor interference, or exploiting the effects of volcanic aerosol on cloud microphysics.
Volcanic SO2 emissions indicate shallow magmatic degassing and hence also provide information on pre-eruptive
unrest, and therefore may be used for eruption forecasting.
UV satellite measurements have sufficient sensitivity to detect such quiescent SO2 degassing, and thus contribute to
volcano monitoring (Fig. 1). However, many volcanoes in
the moist tropics have large hydrothermal systems, which
can sequester SO2 (known as scrubbing) and complicate
the use of this gas as an indicator of volcanic unrest (e.g.,
Symonds et al., 2001). Other less soluble volcanic gases,
such as hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and carbon dioxide (CO2),
may be more appropriate indicators of magmatic degassing
in the tropics but are not easily measured via remote sensing
(e.g., ODwyer et al., 2003), and must be quantified by direct sampling of volcanic gases. After emission, SO2 eventually converts to sulfate aerosol, which can impact air quality and visibility downwind of degassing volcanoes and is a
health hazard. Monitoring of tropospheric SO2 emissions
from volcanoes and the derived sulfate aerosol is required to
mitigate these hazards.
An analysis of OMI SO2 measurements for Indonesia collected over the duration of the Aura satellite mission (since
September 2004) reveals that detected SO2 emissions from
the Indonesian archipelago are relatively low compared to
some other volcanic regions, despite the high levels of volcanic activity. This is likely due in part to the persistent
Fig. 1 Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)

SO2 data for the Southwest Pacific region on
April 23, 2006. SO2 column amounts are reported
in Dobson Units (DU) where 1 DU = 2.691016
molecules cm-2 = 0.0285 g m-2 SO2. In this single
image, tropospheric SO2 plumes are visible emanating from (north to south) Anatahan (Mariana Is),
Manam, Ulawun and Bagana (Papua New Guinea),
Tinakula (Solomon Is), Gaua and Ambrym (Vanuatu). OMI has a spatial resolution of 1324 km,
which is sufficient to resolve plumes from individual volcanic sources.
56
Remote sensing of volcanic emissions in the Asia-Pacific region
cloud cover on many Indonesian volcanoes, which masks

emissions at lower altitudes and also removes emitted SO2
from the atmosphere rapidly via aqueous phase reactions in
cloud water (e.g., Carn et al., 2011). Significant scrubbing
of SO2 in the hydrothermal systems of many volcanoes prior
to emission is also probable, and it is likely that a considerable fraction of the sulfur budget of Indonesian volcanoes is
emitted in the form of H2S or other reduced sulfur species.
However, the OMI SO2 measurements do permit identification of the strongest volcanic SO2 sources in Indonesia in
2004-2011, which include Soputan (Sulawesi), Kawah Ijen
(Java) and Bromo (Java). Soputan in particular is characterized by frequent small-to-moderate explosive eruptions
(with no precursory activity apparent in the OMI SO2 data)
that represent a significant aviation hazard in the region. The
major eruption of Merapi (Java) in November 2010 also
resulted in large SO2 emissions and is discussed further
below. When comparing time-averaged SO2 emissions in
Indonesia measured by OMI with model simulations of
SO2burdens initialized with existing emissions inventories
(e.g., Pfeffer et al., 2006), we find notable discrepancies
which suggest that the satellite measurements could contribute to more accurate emissions inventories.
The November 2010 eruption

of Merapi (Java)
The explosive eruption of Merapi volcano (Java) in October-November 2010 was Merapis largest since 1872, categorized with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI; Newhall
and Self, 1982) of 4 (~0.1 km3). The explosive phases of the
eruption began in late October and culminated with the
paroxysmal event on November 4-5. Ash emissions from
the eruption resulted in major disruption to domestic and international flights, but were difficult to track using conventional satellite remote sensing techniques due to abundant
meteorological clouds and ice-rich volcanic clouds. Satellite
measurements of SO2 from OMI, the Infrared Atmospheric
Sounding Interferometer (IASI on MetOp) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua proved valuable
during the Merapi eruption since, unlike ash particles, SO2
does not nucleate ice. Hence even ice-rich volcanic clouds
typically maintain a strong SO2 signature that can be used for
eruption detection and cloud tracking. The SO2 data were
therefore used by proxy to monitor eruption intensity, and displayed a good correlation with coincident seismic data. An increase in SO2 production detected from space prior to the
Fig. 2 Total attenuated backscatter at 532 nm measured by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP)
aboard the CALIPSO satellite on November 5, 2010 at ~19:30 UTC. Latitudes and longitudes of this lidar curtain are shown along the xaxis. Aerosol in the Merapi volcanic eruption cloud (yellow / orange colors) is detected near the tropopause (white solid line) at altitudes of
~13-17 km. Depolarization measurements indicate that the volcanic aerosol particles are solid, and could be ice, solid sulfate, ash, or a mixture of these. Attenuating features at lower altitudes are meteorological clouds.
57
S. A. Carn
paroxysmal event on November 4-5 contributed to a forecast of the eruption, which permitted timely evacuations of
the volcanos flanks that saved many lives. The Merapi
eruption produced a total of ~0.2-0.3 Tg of SO2; the largest
SO2 release measured from an Indonesian volcano since the
1988 eruption of Banda Api, detected by the Total Ozone
Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). The Microwave Limb
Sounder (MLS) instrument (also on the Aura satellite with
OMI) was also able to detect HCl in the Merapi volcanic
cloud, which is consistent with the Cl-rich composition of
Merapi volcanic gases measured by direct sampling. Further
details are provided in Surono et al. (2011).
A-Train measurements of the Merapi volcanic cloud provided
some unique constraints on the altitude of the cloud, which
reached the tropopause at ~17 km (Fig. 2). Solid aerosol particles
were detected in the volcanic cloud by the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar
with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aboard the CALIPSO
satellite, but the composition of these particles remains unclear.
Ash was not explicitly detected in the volcanic cloud using other
remote sensing techniques, but ice nucleated on ash is a possible
explanation. Sulfate aerosol in the solid phase could perhaps explain the observations. To attempt to resolve this issue we (in collaboration with J. Wang, University of Nebraska
Lincoln) are conducting simulations of the Merapi eruption using the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model (CTM;
http://www-as.harvard.edu/chemistry/trop/geos/), which includes advanced treatment of sulfate aerosol composition
and phase (Wang et al., 2008). The CTM is initialized using
accurate estimates of volcanic SO2 emission magnitude and
altitude based on A-Train satellite observations, and the
model then simulates the sulfate aerosol evolution with time.
By comparing the modeled sulfate aerosol optical depth
(AOD) with the CALIOP and other aerosol observations, we
hope to gain insight into the composition of volcanic clouds
and better interpret the satellite measurements. This will improve our understanding of volcanic cloud hazards to aviation and also permit calculation of the radiative forcing associated with such eruptions.
The 2005 eruption of Anatahan

(Mariana Islands)
The April-May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajkull (Iceland)
highlighted the vulnerability of countries that depend on air
transport to volcanic cloud hazards. Given that Southeast
Asia contains some of the worlds most volcanically active
Fig. 3 SO2 emissions from Anatahan (Mariana Islands) measured by OMI from January-September 2005. Also shown are Real-time
Seismic Amplitude (RSAM) data from a seismic station on the volcano (courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey), estimated plume altitudes
(courtesy of M. Guffanti, USGS), and periods impacted by Pacific ocean typhoons.
58
Remote sensing of volcanic emissions in the Asia-Pacific region
regions, one may ask the question: could an Eyjafjallajkull-type event could occur in the region? Although the
density of air routes in Southeast Asia is considerably lower
than in mainland Europe, there is still significant potential
for disruption at busy hubs such as Singapore, with the volcanoes of Sumatra situated to the west. However, some of
the factors that exacerbated the impact of the Eyjafjallajkull eruption, such as a persistent northwesterly wind associated with a high-pressure system that transported volcanic ash towards Europe, are less probable in the tropics
where meteorology (at low altitudes) is dominated by convection and vertical transport and there are no synoptic pressure systems. Small eruptions in the tropics result in greater
column heights relative to drier environments due to the impact of latent heat release from condensing water vapor
(Tupper et al., 2009), so even a modest eruption (of a similar intensity to Eyjafjallajkull) would produce a relatively
high column and could promote rapid long-range transport
away from the region.
One recent period of volcanic unrest that resembles the
Eyjafjallajkull event in some respects is the activity of
Anatahan volcano (Mariana Islands) in April-August 2005.
Anatahan, which erupted for the first time in recorded history in May 2003, is remote and uninhabited and most of
the observations of this activity are derived from satellite
remote sensing. An explosive eruption on April 5-6, 2005
presaged an extended period of ash and gas emissions that
continued for ~5 months (Fig. 3; the Eyjafjallajkull eruption lasted ~6 weeks). Emissions of SO2 from Anatahan during this period were tracked by OMI on a daily basis and
showed long-range transport of volcanic plumes to Japan, the
Philippines, and beyond. Volcanic ash was likely removed
from the plumes relatively rapidly, so the degree of distal
transport of volcanic ash is unclear, but it is clear that any
impact of the eruption was mitigated by its remote location,
far from major population centers. However, the volcanic
plumes caused significant reductions in surface visibility
throughout the western Pacific, impacting shipping, and
sulfate aerosol derived from Anatahans SO2 emissions
was apparently detected by sun photometers in Taiwan,
some 3000 km downwind (part of the AERONET network;
http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov). This event demonstrates that
long-lived eruptions characterized by continuous ash and
gas emissions have the potential to impact air quality at
great distances from the source, and can also impact shipping operations in addition to the recognized hazards to
aviation.
Conclusions
The capabilities of satellite remote sensing techniques have
advanced significantly in the past decade, and satellite observations now play a key role in monitoring volcanic SO2 and ash
emissions. Tropical environments provide particular challenges
for remote sensing, but the examples shown here demonstrate
that critical observations can still be made, resulting in valuable
contributions to hazard mitigation efforts and new insights into
the composition and fate of volcanic emissions.
References
Carn S.A., Krueger A.J., Krotkov N.A., Arellano S., Yang K.
(2008) Daily monitoring of Ecuadorian volcanic degassing
from space. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
176(1), 141-150, DOI:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.01.029.
Carn S.A., Krueger A.J., Krotkov N.A., Yang K., Evans K.
(2009) Tracking volcanic sulfur dioxide clouds for aviation
hazard mitigation. Natural Hazards 51(2), 325-343, DOI:
10.1007/s11069-008-9228-4.
Daag A. S. et al. (1996) Monitoring sulfur dioxide emission at
Mount Pinatubo. In: Newhall C.G., and Punongbayan R.S., (eds.),
1996, Fire and Mud Eruptions and Lahars of Mount Pinatubo,
Philippines. Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
and the University of Washington Press, 1126 p.
Hair J.W., Diskin G., Sachse G., Vay S. (2011) In-situ measurements of tropospheric volcanic plumes in Ecuador and Colombia
during TC4. Journal of Geophysical Research 116, D00J24, DOI:
10.1029/2010JD014718.
Johnson R. W.,Casadevall T. J. (1994) Aviation safety and volcanic ash clouds in the Indonesia-Australia region. Proceedings
of the First International Symposium on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety, Seattle, WA, Office of the Federal Coordinator for
Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, 191197.
ODwyer M., Padgett M. J., McGonigle A. J. S., Oppenheimer
C., Inguaggiato S. (2003) Real-time measurement of volcanic
H2S and SO2 concentrations by UV spectroscopy, Geophysical
Research Letters 30(12), 1652, DOI: 10.1029/ 2003GL017246.
Pfeffer M. A., Langmann B., Graf H.-F. (2006) Atmospheric
transport and deposition of Indonesian volcanic emissions. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 6, 2525-2537.
Prata A. J. (2009) Satellite detection of hazardous volcanic
clouds and the risk to global air traffic. Natural Hazards 51(2),
303-324.
Rose W. I. et al. (1995) Ice in the 1994 Rabaul eruption cloud:
Implications for volcano hazard and atmospheric effects. Nature
375, 477479.
Simkin T., Siebert L. (1994) Volcanoes of the World, 2nd Edition.
Geoscience Press, Tucson, AZ.
Surono, Jousset P., Pallister J., Boichu M., Buongiorno M.F.,
Budisantoso A., Costa F., Andreastuti S., Prata F., Schneider
D., Clarisse L., Humaida H., Sumarti S., BignamiC., Griswold J., Carn S., Oppenheimer C. (2011) The 2010 explosive
eruption of Javas Merapi volcano a 100-year event, Journal
of Volcanology and Geothermal Research (in review).
Symonds R. B., Gerlach T. M., Reed M. H. (2001) Magmatic
gas scrubbing: implications for volcano monitoring. Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research 108, 303-341.
Theys N.,Van Roozendael M., Dils B., Hendrick F., Hao N., De
Mazire M. (2009) First satellite detection of volcanic
bromine monoxide emission after the Kasatochi eruption, Geophysical Research Letters 36, L03809, DOI:10.1029/2008
GL036552.
Tupper A., Itikarai I., Richards M, Prata A.J., Carn S.A.,
Rosenfeld D. (2007) Facing the challenges of the International Airways Volcano Watch: the 2004/05 eruptions of
Manam, Papua New Guinea. Weather and Forecasting 22(1),
175-191.
59
S. A. Carn
Tupper A., Textor C., Herzog M., Graf H., and Richards M. S.
(2009) Tall clouds from small eruptions: the sensitivity of
eruption height and fine ash content to tropospheric instability.
Natural Hazards 51, 375-401.
60
Wang J., Hoffmann A. A., Park R., Jacob D. J., Martin S. T.

(2008) Global distribution of solid and aqueous sulfate aerosols:
effect of the hysteresis of particle phase transitions. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, D11206, DOI: 10.1029/2007JD009367.
Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental changee, p. 61-62
Monitoring carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes

from space and from ground based networks
F.M. Schwandner*, C.G. Newhal*, S.S. Marcial*
Abstract: Volcanoes are highly variable but continuous emitters of gaseous compounds, during both episodic eruptions and quiescent continuous activity, from their vents and craters as well as their flanks. To monitor their emissions, spectroscopic methods have long been used from
the ground, from aircraft, and from space, mainly measuring sulfur dioxide (SO2). However, fewer studies have focused on the more abundant
and stable carbon dioxide (CO2). The application of such observations is both in improving the currently very poorly understood global CO2
source strength estimates for volcanoes, as well as in volcano monitoring, because volcanic CO2 emissions before eruptions are the potentially earliest indicators of unrest available. Early detection of anomalies permits ground-based monitoring at the best place and time because in
times of crisis, the time is extremely short for decisions, validation and response.
The rationale for using CO2 as an early unrest indicator is complex: Among the first potential signals of ascending magma is the exsolution of volatiles contained in magma induced by dynamic depressurization, crystallization, and temperature variations. The three most abundant gas species in these emissions are usually water (H2O), CO2, and SO2. SO2 monitoring methods are widespread, using COSPEC, miniDOAS, SO2 cameras, and space-borne SO2 data. However, since H2O and SO2 are frequently scrubbed out by near-surface processes, they
may be obscured unless the magma is already near the surface. SO2 is most useful for volcanoes that erupt frequently and have a dry
chimney for easy gas escape. CO2 is more difficult to measure remotely than SO2 because the atmospheric background concentration of
CO2 is so much higher than for SO2. Nevertheless, CO2 is important because it is the first gas to exsolve from magma (together with
helium), and it is minimally affected by scrubbing and other near-surface processes. CO2 monitoring has been attempted by groundbased CO2 flux monitoring and by crater plume CO2 measurements using ground-based open-path FTIR and airborne closed-path IR
measurements.
Recent advances in satellite-borne measurements of atmospheric CO2 have resulted in smaller field of views, approaching the domain
size necessary to detect and quantify emissions from volcanoes. The Japanese GOSAT instrument aboard the IBUKI satellite has been
operational since January 2009, producing CO2 total column measurements at a repeat cycle of 3 days and a field of view of 10km.
GOSAT has thus the potential to provide spatially integrated data for entire volcanic edifices. In target mode, repeat observation requests
have a great potential to detect volcanic anomalies. We present data of target mode observation requests on a number of selected volcanoes world-wide, using GOSAT FTS SWIR data. We discuss a new comprehensive approach to instrumental gas monitoring and data
treatment, and our progress on implementation in the Philippines and Indonesia.
Detection of volcanic dust by AERONET

sunphotometers
S. Salinas** and S.C. Liew**
Abstract: Aerosol optical depth and its first and second spectral derivatives respect to wavelength, are often used to describe the interaction of
aerosol particles present on a given size distribution. During volcanic eruptions, large amount of dust particles are emitted into the atmosphere. At source eruption sites, it might be difficult if not impossible to apply photometric measurements due to the high optical depth of volcanic
dust and the difficulty of tracking the Sun. However, at receptor sites, located at places far enough to allow photometric measurements, it is
possible to quantify the particle size distribution of volcanic dust from direct Sun photometry.
* Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

**CRISP, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
PSInSAR detection of ground subsidence and fault

movement in Muntinlupa City, MM and Bian, Laguna
A.M.F. Lagmay*, R. Eco*, J. Adeppa*
Abstract: Permanent Scatterers Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PSInSAR) is a radar processing method for quantitative, high
precision, multi-scale monitoring of land deformation. In the PSInSAR approach multiple acquisitions gathered repeatedly over time in
the same target area are processed. For this work, we used 24 ENVISAT descending imageries from 2003 to 2006 processed with Multi
Acquisition InSAR (MAINSAR). Using this technique, we were able to resolve ground surface motions in the area of West Laguna along
the trace of the West Marikina Valley Fault, including motions of individual targets, not previously recognised by traditional InSAR. The
line-of-sight (LOS) movement measured in Muntinlupa City, MM and Bian, and San Pedro, Laguna using PSInSAR is measured to
have rates of about 15-25 mm/year and is used to complement the existing knowledge on ground deformation of the Marikina Valley
Fault System in this area.
Keywords: PSInSAR, ground subsidence, Marikina Valley Fault, fault movement, permanent scatterer interferometry.
Introduction
interferometric measurements conducted in the region (Deguchi

In 1994 several industrial companies in Muntinlupa and et al., 2008).
vicinities (Fig. 1) complained about fissures on the walls and
floors of their establishments prompting government authori- Methodology
ties to map out the area. By the end of 1999, mapping in the
Muntinlupa revealed ground rupture with a total length of
A total of 24 descending ENVISAT level 0 data, spanning
about 2.6 km with additional ground fissures with lengths the period from 2003-2006 were processed using MAINof about 50 m to 1.4 km trending north-northeast
(Oquendo, 2004). Movement in Muntinlupa was
identified to be along the trace of the West Marikina
Valley Fault with vertical fractures offsets ranging
from 12 to 116 cm with an average of about 50 cm.
Horizontal displacements were up to 0.25 m. In
Bian and San Pedro, Laguna, further south of
Muntinlupa and west of Laguna de Bay, the same
ground rupture features were identified cutting
through houses in villages. Field work in the area revealed up to 50 cm vertical displacement with lateral offset up to 46 cm over a 21 year period.
With measured displacement rates faster than creep
movement in other known fault areas, authorities
were prompted to suspect that the observed ground
rupture is aided by excessive ground water extraction
(Ramos, 1998). It is still unknown today whether
ground rupture in the southern Metro Manila is primarily due to tectonics or excessive groundwater
extraction. To contribute in the discussion on the
nature of the observed fractures, this work provides
additional information in terms of measuring movement in the area of Muntinlupa down to San Pedro
using Permanent Scatterer Interferometry. The study
complements leveling measurements, differential Fig. 1 Index map of the study area. Muntinlupa is the southernmost city
Global Positioning System (dGPS) and conventional of Metro Manila. The white hashed trace is the Marikina Valley Fault.
A.M.F. Lagmay, R. Eco and J. Agdeppa
SAR to extract ground displacements for persistent scatterer pixels from multiple synthetic
aperture radar acquisitions (Hooper et al., 2004;
Hooper, 2006). Prior to the persistent scatterer
processing step, the raw data were focused into
single-look complex (SLC) images using Delft
precision orbits with the Repeat Orbit Interferometry package (ROI PAC; Rosen et al., 2004).
Interferograms were then generated from the
SLC dataset with DORIS (Kampes et al., 2003)
using a master image selected on the basis of
minimizing perpendicular, Doppler, and temporal baselines (Hooper, 2006). The digital elevation model (DEM) used for removing the topographic signal in the interferogram is a 3 arc second Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM)
image interpolated to 30 m postings. The DEMs
were downloaded from the USGS seamless data
distribution system (USGS, 2004-2007).
Results
Fig. 2 Velocity of permanent scatterers for the ascending data. Increase in

line-of-sight of the radar satellite is as much as 27.8 mm/year and in areas corresponding to the enchelon trace of the WMFVS as much as 15-25 mm/year. The red
trace is the official trace of the Marikina Valley Fault according to Phivolcs. The
radar satellite is looking downward to the west.
The interferograms for the descending imageries show coherence in the urban areas of the cities of
Muntinlupa, San Pedro, Bian, Paranaque, and Cavite (Fig.
1). Permanent scatterers in the time-series interferograms
from 2003-2006 show distinct movement as suggested by the
change in the line-of-sight of the radar sensor, which looks
down at an incidence angle of 23.5 from the east (Fig. 2).
Noticeable in the velocity map of permanent scatterers
imaged over the period 2003-2006, is a red bowl-shaped
feature in Paranaque (Figure 3). This red-colored area shows
an increase in the line-of-sight (LOS) of the radar satellite to
the permanent scatterers by as much as 27.8 mm/year. Other
areas that depict a strong change in the line-of-sight of the
radar satellite (red dots) are near the trace of the West
Marikina Valley Fault (WMVF) in Muntinlupa, San Pedro
and Bian. These places show an increase in LOS, which
appears to be associated with the en-echelon trace of the
WMVFS (Fig. 3) as mapped out by Phivolcs. Other areas
along the WMVFS trace that show an increase in LOS but
do not have a corresponding fault trace may mean that these
places were not mapped and need to be checked in the field.
Near the trace of the WMVFS, increase in LOS rates is as
much as 15-25 mm/year.
If movement seen in the PSInSAR is purely vertical, these
rates of movement amount to nearly 30-50 cm of ground
subsidence over a period of 20 years along the fault trace. In
such a case, the measured rates of movement as seen by the
radar satellite would be comparable to the field-measured
vertical displacements in villages that straddle the WMVFS.
However, it is still not possible to determine whether these
changes in LOS are the same as subsidence since more radar
images need to be processed. In particular, PSInSAR-processed ascending radar satellite images are needed, to assess
lateral movement and its contribution to changes in LOS.
The most that can be surmised at this point is that the sig-
64
nificant change in LOS (red areas in Fig. 3) in Muntinlupa,

Bian, and San Pedro seem to correspond to fractures and
fissures of the WMVFS.
Discussion and Conclusions

The PSInSAR processing demonstrates that it is possible
to determine ground deformation in the area of Muntinlupa,
Bian and San Pedro. The reported measurements were
derived from processing descending ENVISAT imageries
from 2003-2006 using an SRTM DEM.
The results can be further improved with the addition of
ascending imageries. The use of higher resolution topography with horizontal postings of less than 20 m and vertical
accuracy not exceeding 10 m is also desired. A DEM generated from 1:10,000 scale topographic maps is intended to be
used in future processing of the ENVISAT imageries. Furthermore, it is necessary to process ENVISAT ascending imageries
to assess the contribution of lateral movement to the increase
in LOS of the radar signal. Also, ERS1 and ERS2, as well as
ALOS PALSAR can be used in future PSInSAR processing
to extend the time frame of deformation analysis in the study
area. ERS1 and ERS2 radar imageries are available as early
as 1992.
References
DeguchiT., Kinugasa Y., Omura M. (2008) Monitoring of Valley Fault system and land subsidence in Metro Manila, Republic
of the Philippines by InSAR and leveling surve. International Geological Congress 2008, Oslo.
Colesanti C., Ferretti A., Novali F., Prati C., Rocca F. (2003)
SAR Monitoring of Progressive and Seasonal Ground Deformation Using the Permanet Scatterers Technique, IEEE Transactions
on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 41, 7, 1685-1701.
PSInSAR detection of ground subsidence and fault movement in Muntinlupa City, MM and Bian, Laguna
Ferretti A., Prati C., Rocca F. (2001) Permanent Scatterers in

SAR Interferometry, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and
Remote Sensing 39, 1, 8-20,.
Ferretti A., Prati C., Rocca F. (2000) Non-linear Subsidence
Rate Estimation Using Permanent Scatterers in Differential SAR
Interferometry, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote
Sensing 38, 5, 2202-2212.
Ferretti A., Novali F., Brgmann R., Hilley G., Prati C. (2004)
InSAR Permanent Scatterer Analysis Reveals Ups and Downs
in San Francisco Bay Area. EOS 85, 34.
Massonnet D., Rossi M., Carmona C., Adragna F., Peltzer G.,
Feigl K., Rabaute T. (1993) The displacement field of the
Landers earthquake mapped by radar interferometry. Nature

364, 138-142.
Oquendo O. (2004) Earthquake disaster preparedness plan.
Muntinlupa City Disaster Coordinating Council.
Ramos E.G. (1998) Subsidence, a serious hazard caused by
groundwater extraction in Metro-Manila. Manuscripts Volume,
11th Annual Convention, Geological. Society of the Philippines,
1830.
Zebker H. A., Rosen P. A., Hensley S. (1997) Atmospheric effects in interferometric synthetic aperture radar surface deformation and topographic maps. Journal of Geophysical Research
102(B4), 7547-7563.
65
Tropical forest monitoring, socializing the pixel

to inform management and livelihood implications:
A case study from Indonesian West Timor
R. Fisher*
Abstract: Deforestation in the worlds tropics is an urgent international issue. One response has been the development of satellite based monitoring initiatives largely focused on the carbon rich forests of western Indonesia. In contrast this study focuses on one eastern Indonesian
district, Kabupaten Kupang, which has some of the largest and least studied tracts of remaining forest in West Timor. This study used a combination of remote sensing, GIS and social science methods to describe the state of forests in Kupang district, how and why they are changing. Through integrating satellite imagery, case studies and on-ground interviews, this study explores the proposition that local social, cultural and biophysical knowledge is important for effectively using remotely sensed data as a tool to inform management. When compared to
some other parts of Indonesia, the rate and extent of deforestation in West Timor was found to be relatively small and a satellite based assessment alone could conclude that it is not a critical issue. However when coupled with on-ground social data a more complex picture emerged related to key livelihood issues. The causes of forest cover change were found to be multivariate and location specific, requiring management approaches tailored to local social issues. This finding has implications in view of the substantial resources being devoted to producing satellite derived forest cover change metrics which generally provide little insight into underlying dynamics. This study suggests that integrative research incorporating local knowledge is key to maximizing the utility of satellite data for understanding causation and effectively informing management strategies.
El Nio and rainfall influence on the temporal

and spatial patterns of vegetation fires
in insular Southeast Asia
S.C. Liew** and J. Miettinen**
Abstract: Vegetation fires are regular occurrences in the Southeast Asian region. Fire is traditionally used as a tool in land clearing by farmers and shifting cultivators. However, the small scale clearing of land is increasingly being replaced by modern large-scale conversion of
forests into plantations/agricultural land, usually also by fires. The fires get out of control in periods of extreme drought, especially during
the El Nino periods, resulting in severe episodes of transboundary air pollution in the form of smoke haze. Vegetation fires in Southeast
Asia is also a significant source of carbon emission. In this paper, we use the MODIS thermal anomaly product (hotspots data) to study the
temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation fires in the western part of Insular Southeast Asia for a decade from 2001 to 2010. Fire occurrence exhibits a negative correlation with rainfall, and is more severe overall during the El-Nino periods. However, not all regions are
equally affected by El-Nino. In Southern Sumatra and Southern Borneo the correlation with El-Nino is high. However, fires in some regions
such as Riau, Jambi and Sarawak do not appear to be influenced by El-Nino. These regions are also experiencing rapid conversion of forest,
especially those in peat areas, to large scale plantations.
* Research Institute for Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Australia.
** CRISP, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Assessing the hydrologic response of wetlands to

restoration: A remote sensing perspective
A.M. Melesse* and F. Miralles-Wilhelm**
Abstract: The Kissimmee-everglades natural ecosystems of south Florida have experienced various historical changes that led to the
shrinkage of the wetland systems and the current ongoing restoration efforts. The first and main goal of a wetland restoration is to restore
the hydrology and vegetation back to their original condition. In this study, satellite based latent heat flux was used to evaluate the success
of restoration of the hydrology and wetland vegetation. Results have shown that increase in latent heat flux was observed for areas where
restoration is taking place.
Key words: Restoration, energy flux, NDVI, Everglades, wetland, remote sensing.
Introduction
Study Area
Wetlands have been impacted globally as humans need for

The study was conducted in the Kissimmee River basin lomore land and resources increased to meet the growing de- cated north of Lake Okeechobee in South Florida (Figure 1).
mand for food, housing and recreation. This global trend of
wetland deterioration is mainly driven by agricultural and Latent Heat Mapping
urban area expansion. In south Florida, the conversions of
the wetlands began over the last century mainly for flood
Remote sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET) estimacontrol and expansion of the agricultural and urban areas.
tions using the surface energy budget equation are proven to
The conversion of wetlands to agricultural and urban areas be one of the most recently accepted techniques for areal ET
in the early 19th century, the channelization of the Kissimmee estimation for large areas. Surface Energy Balance AlgoRiver between 1962 and 1970 for flood control, and the cur- rithms for Land (SEBAL) is one of such models utilizing
rent restoration activities have caused ecological
disturbances. Successful restoration of the ecosystem requires achieving ecohydrological integrity,
the ecosystems capability to support biodiversity,
structural and functional organization comparable
to that of the natural habitat of the region through
hydrologic and vegetation restoration.
The Kissimmee River Restoration Project started with the goals of reversing the environmental
damage that was brought by the channelization in
order to restore the once thriving headwaters of the
Everglades ecosystem (Stover, 1992). The project
aimed at restoring over 102 km2 of river/floodplain
ecosystem including 69 km of meandering river
channel and 10, 900 ha of wetlands.
The main objective of this analysis was to use
the MODIS based products (surface temperature,
albedo, emissivity and normalized difference
vegetation index (NDVI)) to compute latent heat
flux using surface energy flux modeling approach and characterize the change in latent heat
changes over the period of the Kissimmee River
Fig. 1 The Kissimmee River basin.
restoration.
* Department of Earth and Environment, Florida International University, Miami, FL, USA.
A.M. Melesse and F. Miralles-Wilhelm
Landsat, MODIS and ASTER images

and images from others sensors with a
thermal infrared band to solve equation
(1) and hence generate areal maps of ET
(Bastiaanssen et al., 1998a; Bastiaanssen
et al., 1998b; Melesse et al., 2006; 2007).
SEBAL requires weather data such as
solar radiation, wind speed, precipitation, air temperature, and relative humidity in addition to satellite imagery with
visible, near infrared and thermal bands.
SEBAL uses the model routine of
ERDAS Imagine in order to solve the
different components of the energy budget equations.
In the absence of horizontally advective energy, the surface energy budget of
land surface satisfying the law of conservation of energy can be expressed as,
Rn LE H G = 0
(1)
where Rn is net radiation at the surface,
LE is latent heat or moisture flux (ET in
energy units), H is sensible heat flux to
the air, and G is soil heat flux. MODIS
based surface temperature, NDVI, albedo, emissivity were acquired and used
to generate the latent heat for the month
of April for the period 2000-2004.
Fig. 2 Latent heat flux map of the Kissimmee River for the month of April.
Results
Latent heat grids were generated from MODIS imagery
for the month of April (2000-2004). Figures 2 show maps of
latent heat in watts per square meter for the month of April.
As it is depicted in Figures 2, latent heat values were higher
in 2002 and 2004 than 2000 on areas along the rivers. The
removal of flood control structures and rechannalization of
the river to its natural course will increase the floodplain
area and in turn higher latent heat flux. It is shown that higher latent heat flux along the river can be attributed to the
increased flood plain areas and vegetation cover. The rainfall volume for the month of April (2000, 2002 and 2004)
was 40, 10 and 35 mm, respectively.
Conclusion
Response of the Kissimmee basins hydrology and vegetation to the recent restoration was evaluated using data
from MODIS spatial latent heat flux. The spatial latent heat
flux, which is evapotranspiration in energy units, has also
shown an increase in 2002, 20003 and 2004 compared to
2000, which can be attributed to large areas of vegetated
surface. This change was mainly seen along the river where
most of the restoration work is going and changes in the
70
hydrology are expected. Understanding the complete ecohydrological response of the basin due to the restoration work
will require collection and analysis of vegetation cover at
finer scales than reported in this study.
References
Bastiaanssen W.G.M., Menenti M., Feddes R.A., Holtslag A. A.
M. (1998a) The Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land
(SEBAL): Part 1 formulation, Journal of Hydrology 212-213,
198-212.
Bastiaanssen W.G.M., Pelgrum H., Wang J., Moreno J., Ma Y.,
Roerink G.J., van der Wal. T. (1998b) The Surface Energy
Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL): Part 2 validation. Journal of Hydrology 212-213, 213-229.
Melesse A., Nangia V. Wang X., McClain M. (2007) Wetland
Restoration Response Analysis using MODIS and Groundwater
Data. SENSORS 7, 1916-1933
Melesse A.M., Oberg J., Beeri O., Nangia V., Baumgartner D.
(2006) Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Evapotranspiration and
Vegetation at the Glacial Ridge Prairie Restoration. Hydrological Processes 20(7), 1451-1464
Stover D. (1992) Engineering the Everglades. Popular Science.
46-49 & 94-95.
Remote sensing of reservoirs in large Asian river basins

X.X. Lu*, L. Ran*, X. Yang*, S. Liu*
Abstract: Hundreds and thousands of rreservoirs were constructed for flood control, power generation, and water supply etc. However,
information such as the location and water storage capacity of these reservoirs is often not available. This talk will introduce our recent
work on remote sensing of reservoirs conducted in large Chinese river basins such as Huanghe, Changjiang and Zhujiang where
reservoirs are extensive. In view of the shortcomings of conventional approaches in locating reservoirs spatial location and quantifying
their storage volume, remote sensing technique has several advantages, either for a single reservoir or for a group of reservoirs within
a basin. The satellite-based remote sensing data, encompassing spatial, spectral and temporal attributes, can provide high-resolution
synoptic and repetitive information with short time intervals in a large scale. By use of remote sensing images in conjunction with
Google Earth and field check, the spatial distribution of constructed reservoirs in these large river basins was delineated. Their storage
volume and the residence time of the stored water were estimated. The ultimate goal is to evaluate their impact on water flow and
sediment flux changes.
Large floods and average climate: Is there a relationship

in the Asia-Australia monsoon region?
R. Wasson**
Abstract: Are large floods randomly distributed in time or do they follow temporal patterns of average climate? The answer to this
question is given particular significance by projections of future climate.Proxy records (speleothems, river sediments, and documents)
of past precipitation in the Asia-Australia Monsoon Region (Australia, India and China: AAMR) show an average trend that was wet
between 1000 and 1200 AD during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), a transition to a dry climate between 1400 and 1600 AD,
and a transition to wet conditions between 1800 AD and the present. In Peninsular India there is a record of large floods in
radiometrically dated river deposits (also known as slackwater deposits), from before 1000 to 1240AD, then a complete absence of large
floods until ~1875AD (from the work of Vishwas Kale and co-workers).Thereafter the largest floods on record have occurred. In
Australia slackwater deposits from 7 catchments in the area affected by the monsoon show a different pattern from that in India. The
dry period in the average record of precipitation has a low number of large floods,but there is no equivalent of the MCA pattern of floods
in India.The number of large floods increases from 1500AD and is at its highest between 1900 and 2000AD.The most recent increase
in floods is consistent with the record from India.It is important to note that both sets of flood records are non-random but show different
patterns in relation to the trend of average precipitation. Reasons for this difference will be explored including the completeness of the
slackwater record, the limitations of radiocarbon dating, and spatial variability in the climatic reorganization that occurred during the
MCA.The recent increase in large floods is consistent with climate projections for a warmer Earth but a more complete understanding
of the relationship between large floods and average climate on long time scales is needed to complement atmospheric/oceanic
modelling, and will rely upon better dating and hydraulic modelling of slackwater deposits at more sites in the AAMR.
* Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

** Charles Darwin University, Australia.
Spatial information for analyzing changing

hydro-meteorological risk
C.J. van Westen*
Short abstract: Environmental changes due to global change and resulting reactions in ecosystems, combined with expected changes
in socio-economic development will lead to adjustments in land use in areas that are exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards such as
flooding, mass movements, severe erosion, snow avalanches and wind storms. These hazards will also have domino effects (e.g. the
effect of land-use change on runoff severe erosion and consequent landslides and river damming leading to flooding) that are still not
properly understood. The effects of these changes need to be analyzed and modeled with probabilistic hazard and risk methods that can
be used by stakeholders from different sectors. The probabilistic models should incorporate the uncertainties in temporal probability,
spatial extend and magnitude of the hazards, as well as the uncertainties of the vulnerability of the exposed elements at risk. The
modeled changes in hazard and risk patterns need to be incorporated into disaster risks management strategies and will form an
important factor in land use planning activities at stakeholder relevant levels. They also have a large impact on risk governance policies
that need to be adapted.
This paper gives an overview of work related to the analysis of changes in hydro-meteorological risk in Europe, focusing on analysis
of changing hazards, changing exposure of elements at risk, and their vulnerabilities. The structure and workplan of a recent EU FP7
Marie Curie Initial Training Network called CHANGES is presented. This project (Changing Hydro-meteorological Risks as
Analyzed by a New Generation of European Scientists) intends to develop an advanced understanding of how global changes (related
to both environmental and climate change as well as socio-economical developments) will affect the temporal and spatial patterns of
hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe, how these changes can be assessed, modeled and how these can be
incorporated in sustainable risk management strategies, focusing on spatial planning, emergency preparedness and risk communication.
Key words: Risk, climate change, hazard, landuse, vulnerability.
Changing hazards
COAST, NewExt and CASH); according to recent studies at a

It is evident that Europe undergoes rapid changes in terms of European level the projected impact of flooding in Europe
fast population growth, urbanization, economic development would increase dramatically in the coming decades. By 2080
and socio- political structures. On top of that, there is
convincing evidence that the emission of greenhouse
gasses (GHSs) causes changes in the earths climate
that are expected to lead to an increase in hazardous
events with a hydro-meteorological trigger. It is the difficulty of the prediction of the magnitude of these
changes and the frequency of the occurrence of extreme
events that urges a thorough change in our adaptation
management of hydro-meteorological risks (EEA,
2004). According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports climate change is expected to cause a rise in temperature ranging from 2.5
5.4 C in Europe by 2080 depending on the uncertainty
associated with the driving forces of global emissions
and the sensitivity of climate models to GHG concentration (Christensen et al., 2007). Several studies are
available that evaluate the impacts of climate change in
Europe (e.g. Beniston et al., 2007; Alcamo et al., 2007).
Several EU project have studied the possible impacts of Fig. 1 Conceptual framework for the analysis of changing hydro-meteclimate change in Europe (e.g. PRUDENCE, DINAS- orological risk.
* Director UNU-ITC School for Disaster Geo-Information Management, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University
of Twente, Enschede, The Netherlands.
C. J. van Westen
it is estimated that between 250,000 and 400,000 people are

affected each year by flooding in Europe, with highest concentration in the British Isles and Central Europe. The total annual expected flood damage in Europe is estimated to range
between 7.7 and 15 billion Euros. These values are more than
double of those in the period 1961-1990 (Ciscar, 2009). The
local effects of flooding have not been taken into account yet,
due to the coarse resolution of the model, and there is a need
to downscale such models to make them applicable for local
risk assessment and management.
For mass movements, such global impact studies have not
been carried out so far. Mass movements are one of the
major soil threats that are considered within the EU Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection (EC, 2006). The directive
indicates that Member States should carry out the identification of risk areas based on empirical evidence or on modeling. However, the focus is more on evaluation of the current situation than on assessing the changes in risk that are
likely to occur in the coming decades. Landslide susceptibility studies for some individual countries have been carried out (Malet et al., 2009). Nadim et al. (2006) carried out
a general evaluation of landslide susceptibility for the whole
of Europe as part of the Global Hotspots study using a scale
of 1 x 1 km by combining the triggering factors (precipitation, human activity, seismicity) and susceptibility factors
(slope, lithology, soil moisture, vegetation cover) in a qualitative manner. General studies (Beniston & Douglas, 2006)
indicate that the number, frequency and intensity of mass
movements are likely to change, but the variation in the pattern is not well defined. The impact of climate change on
mass movements is being studied in a number of EU research projects (e.g. ClimChAlp in the Alps, SIGMA and
GACH2C in France, ESPRC in the UK). So far, the approach to assess the impact of environmental change on
landslide risk has been relatively narrow focused on changes
in landslide hazard (e.g., van Beek & van Asch, 2004, Dixon
& Brook 2007). This distinct weakness can be addressed by
including socio-economic change and interactions between
climate and land use through scenarios. Very limited work
has been carried out up to now to include the cascading or
conjoint (also called domino) effects into account in the analysis of future impacts of environmental changes to hydrometeorological hazards. For instance through changes in
vegetation patterns the probability of wild fires may increase
leading to more severe run-off, erosion and mass movement
problems; also the analysis of landslide dams and consequent
dam break flooding is an important topic to be considered.
land use changes in Europe in 2050 (Audsley et al., 2006).

EEA (2004) concludes that many environmental problems in
Europe are caused by rapidly expanding urban areas. By 2020,
approximately 80 % of all Europeans will be living in urban
areas, while in seven countries the proportion will be 90 % or
more. The global economy, cross border transport networks,
large scale societal, economic and demographic changes and
differences in national planning laws are some of the major
drivers of change to the urban environment. Land use changes
may have various detrimental effects on the quality of landscape and environment. Studies aiming to predict land use
changes are of great use to European policy-makers to anticipate such possible prejudicial effects and to engage adapted
actions for their prevention.
Changing vulnerability
The vulnerability to hydro-meteorological hazards of the exposed elements has different components (Birkmann, 2006),
including the systems or the communitys physical (structural), economic, social and environmental susceptibility to
damage. Studies on vulnerability related to environmental
change indicate that these have a very high level of uncertainty. Whereas flood vulnerability has been defined in a rather detailed manner (Moel et al., 2009) there are still many uncertainties involved. For mass movement there is much less
work done on defining vulnerability (Glade, 2003), partly due
to the large variation in physical mass movement processes,
the difficulty in expressing landslide intensity versus the degree of damage, and also related to the purely non existence
of data. Some approaches exist for single elements (e.g Fuchs
et al. 2007), but an integrated methodology is still lacking.
Changing elements at risk

The exposure of elements at risk also increase and therefore the risk of natural hazards is constantly growing. Land
use changes are predicted for Europe as a result of technological, socio-economic and political developments as well as
global environmental change. The type and effects of these
changes will strongly depend on policy decisions which are
governed. The recent EU research project ACCELERATES
compared the impact of several scenarios on the prediction of
74
Fig. 2 Overview of partners in the CHANGES project.
Uncertainty and risk assessment

As the level of uncertainty of the components used in the
risk equation (hazard, vulnerability, quantification of the ex-
Spatial information for analyzing changing hydro-meteorological risk
posed elements at risk) is very high, the analysis of the

changes in future risk should incorporate these uncertainties
in a probabilistic manner. Methods for probabilistic risk assessment for flooding have been developed (e.g. Moel et al.,
2009). The European Parliament adopted a new Flood Directive (2007/60/EC) with the objective to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risk in
Europe, emphasizing both the frequency and magnitude of a
flood as well as its consequences (Lavalle et al., 2005). However, such methodologies should be downscaled for practical
use in risk management at local levels. Impacts of natural
hazards on the Environment and on the Society are still tackled by mono-disciplinary approaches. The focus is reflected
in the domains of scientific research (single approach and
tools for each type of threat), in the existing management
tools and in the legislative basis of these activities. Management tools, models, and local-to-regional technical solutions
have been proposed by numerous projects for single hazards.
However only a few of them have tackled the issue of risk assessment and management in a multi-hazard perspective, including possible combined and domino effects. Probabilistic
tools for multi-hazard risk assessment are not available to
stakeholders at the local level. Insurance companies and specialized risk assessment consultants have developed models
but these are not open for public use. Internationally, several
initiatives for multi-hazard risk assessment platforms exist,
such as HAZUS-MH (FEMA, 2009) and CAPRA (World
Bank, 2009). HAZUS-MH is a powerful risk assessment
methodology for analyzing potential losses from floods, hurricane winds and earthquakes. CAPRA is a system which utilizes state-of the-art technology in Geographic Information
Systems, Web-GIS and catastrophe models, used to generate
an open platform for disaster risk assessment. The CHANGES
network will further built on these experiences and adapt
such an open system for probabilistic risk assessment for
hydro-meteorological hazards that can be used by stakeholders at a regional and local level.
Changing risk management

The European Commission has identified the need for
adaptations in risk management as a consequence to climate
and environmental changes in several documents (e.g. EC
2009). The implementation of risk management measures
such as disaster preparedness programmes, land-use planning, regulatory zoning and early warning systems are considered essential. Fleischauer et al. (2006) conclude that spatial planning is only one of many aspects in risk management
and that it is, in general, not involved in risk assessment. Further, multi-risk assessment approaches are not used in planning practice: risk indicators are hardly used and vulnerability indicators are not at all used. Therefore integrated approaches are needed for integrating spatial planning in disaster risk management. Additionally, scientific advances in hazard and risk assessment and demands of stakeholders/endusers are still not well connected. In many cases, the scientific outcomes remain rooted solely within the scientific community or new knowledge is not fabricated enough to be im-
plemented by stakeholders and end-users (IRGC, 2005). A

key cause of the gap between the science community and
stakeholders/end-users is in the complexity of human-ennvironment interactions. This has led to the development of a
diversity of approaches, often not easy to implement by the
end-user community. The CHANGES network recognizes the
shared responsibilities of all stakeholders for which shared
knowledge is the key element. Therefore, the network aims at
a transparency by putting communication via visualization of
the whole risk management cycle and scenarios central.
There is a need for the development of a harmonised decision-making tool structure for applying hazard and risk mitigation through spatial planning in risk prone areas and development of a guideline on natural hazard mitigation in the
context of the EU Environmental Assessment Directive.
References
Alcamo J., et al. (2007) Europe. In: M.L. Parry et al. (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, 541-580.
Audsley E. et al. (2006) What can scenario modelling tell us
about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not?
Environmental Science and Policy 9(2), 148-162.
Barredo J.I., Petrov L., Sagris V., Lavalle C., Genovese E.
(2005) Towards an integrated scenario approach for spatial
planning and natural hazards mitigation. Joint Research Centre
of the European Commission EUR 21900 EN.
Beniston M. et al. (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change 81, 71-95.
Beniston M., Douglas G.F. (1996) Impacts of climate change on
mountain regions. In: R.T. Watson, M.C. Zinyowera, R.H. Moss
and D.J. Dokken (Eds), Climate Change 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change, Scientific-Technical Analysis, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge 191213.
Birkmann J. (2006) Landslides: from Mapping to Loss and Risk
Estimation, Crosta G.B. and Frattini P. (eds), LESSLOSS Report
No. 2007/01, IUSS Press ISBN: 978-88-6198-005-1, 2007.
Ciscar J.C. (Ed.) (2009) Climate change impacts in Europe.
Final report of the research project. European Commission Joint
Research Centre. EUR 24093 EN.
Christensen J.H., Carter T., Rummukainen M. (2007) Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the
PRUDENCE project. Climatic Change 81, 1-6.
Dixon N., Brook E. (2007) Impact of predicted climate change
on landslide reactivation: case study of Mam Tor, UK. Landslides 4, 137-147
EEA (2004) Mapping the impacts of recent natural disasters and
technological accidents in Europe. Environmental Issue Report
35, European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, Denmark.
European Commission (2006) Directive of the European Parliament and of the council: establishing a framework for the
protection of soil and amending. Directive 2004/35/EC.
European Commission (2009a) White Paper Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action,
75
C. J. van Westen
COM(2009b) 147 final and accompanying staff working document, 70 p.

FEMA (2008) HAZUS, FEMAs Methodology for Estimating
Potential Losses from Disasters. http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/index.shtm
Fleischhauer M., Greiving S., Wanczura S. (Eds.) (2006)
Natural Hazards and Spatial Planning in Europe. Dortmund
206 p.
Fuchs S., Heiss K., Hbl J. (2007) Towards an empirical vulnerability function for use in debris flow risk assessment. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 7, 495-506;
Glade T. (2003) Vulnerability assessment in landslide risk analysis. Die Erde 134, 121-138
Greiving S. (2004) Risk assessment and management as an
Important Tool for the EU Strategic Environmental Assessment.
DISP 157, 11-17.
Greiving S, Fleischhauer M., Wanczura S. (2006) Management
of Natural Hazards in Europe: The Role of Spatial Planning in Selected EU Member States. Journal of Environmental Planning
and Management 49, 5, 739-757.
IRGC (2005) International Risk Governance Council, White
Paper 1 on Risk Governance: Towards an Integrative Approach,
Geneva, IRGC,
ISDR (2009) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland.
Lavalle C., Barredo J. I., De Roo A., Niemeyer S., Miguel-Ayanz
J. S., Hiederer R., Genovese E., Camia A.(2005) Towards an
76
European integrated map of risk from weather driven events,

European Commission. Joint Research Centre, EUR 22116 EN.
Malet J.-P., Thiery Y., Puissant A., Hervs J., Gnther A.,
Grandjean G. (2009) Landslide susceptibility mapping at
1:1M scale over France: exploratory results with a heuristic
model. In: Malet J.-P., Rematre A., Boogard T. (Eds), Proceedings International Conference on Landslide Processes: from
Geomorphologic Mapping to Dynamic Modelling, 6 -7 February
2009, Strasbourg, France. CERG Editions, Strasbourg, 315-320.
Malet J.-P., Durand Y., Rematre A., Maquaire O., Etchevers
P., Guyomarch G., Dqu M., van Beek L.P.H.(2007) Assessing the influence of climate change on the activity of landslides in the Ubaye Valley. In: McInnes R., Jakeways J., Fairbank H., Mathie E. (Eds): Proceedings of the International Conference on Landslides and Climate Change Challenges and
Solutions, Taylor & Francis, London, 195-205.
Moel H de, van Alphen J., Aerts J. C. J. H. (2009) Flood maps
in Europe methods, availability and use. Natural Hazards and
Earth System Sciences 9, 289301.
Nadim F., Kjekstad O., Peduzzi P., Herold C., Jaedicke C.
(2006) Global landslide and avalanche hotspots. Landslides 3,
2, 159-174.
Van Beek L.P.H., Van Asch Th.W.J. (2004) Regional assessment
of the effects of land-use on landslide hazard assessment by means
of physically-based modelling. Natural Hazards 31, 289-30
World Bank (2009) CAPRA. Central American Probabilistic
Risk Assessment. http://ecapra.org/en/
Global warming and large tropical rivers

A. Gupta*,** and S.C. Liew*
Short abstract: Large tropical rivers carry a common set of properties: a seasonal pattern of discharge, episodic transport of sediment,
almost the entire sediment derived from the headwaters, polyzonal basins, large deltas. Anthropogenic activities have transformed a
number of these rivers following changes in basin land use, closure of dams, and climate modification. The Fourth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change lists certain consequences of climate change that should impact large rivers. These
include retreat of mountain glaciers, early melting of snow and ice, changes in annual variations in rainfall, enhanced seasonality, regional increase in droughts, increase in strength of large storms, higher rainfall from extreme events, and sea level rise. It is possible to
evaluate the resulting robust changes in morphology and behaviour of river systems using principles of fluvial geomorphology and past
analogues. We may even be able to construct a new set of rules for understanding, utilizing and managing rivers.
Keywords: Large rivers, tropics, global warming, satellite images, anthropogenic noise.
Introduction
Large tropical rivers tend to have a common set of properties (Fig.1). A seasonal pattern characterizes the annual
distribution of water and sediment discharge. Effects of
large floods are superimposed on this seasonal pattern. The
sediment load is derived mostly from the mountains in the
upper basin and transferred episodically downstream along
the channel. The basins are usually polyzonal and rivers
tend to end in large deltas. Rivers and their basins underwent a series of changes during the Quaternary. Over the last
few centuries, however, anthropogenic activities have transformed a number of these rivers due to changes in basin land
use, closure of dams, and modification of climate.
A selected list of robust changes in climatic characteristics
that affects the large tropical rivers includes retreat of mountain glaciers, melting of snow and ice earlier than expected,
changes in annual variations in rainfall, enhanced seasonality, regional increase in droughts, increase in the strength of
large storms, higher rainfall from extreme events, and
sea level rise (IPCC, 2007). The resulting effects vary in
intensity and do not always impact all large rivers the
same way. It is crucial to determine the effect of such
changes on large rivers, at least at a qualitative level.
existing models are not in agreement or of required resolution. We can use environmental analogues from the Pleistocene for certain cases. We may start determining possible
robust changes on large rivers from climate change with
three basic premises: (1) rivers are in dynamic equilibrium,
(2) a large river is a system, linked from source to sink, (3)
analogues exist from geological past, especially Pliocene
and Quaternary.
Results
The effect of climate change varies between the upper and
the lower parts of the river but the entire river behaves as an
integrated system. The basin, however, may display polyzonal characteristics thus complicating the scenario (Gupta,
2010). The impact of climate change along the upper and
middle rivers may be summarized as:
less dependence on snowmelt and more on rainfall;
increased duration of low flow;
Methods
The effects of such changes on rivers can be determined by (1) observation, (2) modelling and (3) examining past analogues. Observations are best but we
get very few opportunities to see such changes, an exception being the United States Geological Survey observations on streamflow gauges for the 1900s. The
Fig. 1 Summary description of a large tropical river.
* Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing, National University of Singapore.
** School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Wollongong, Australia.
A. Gupta and S.C. Liew
changes in groundwater discharge (baseflow), at present not well understood;

possible changes in mean discharge volume;
different types and scales of change among the tributaries;
possible increase in flood: small changes in mean climate may give rise to large changes in extreme floods
(Knox, 1993);
changes in transfer and storage of sediment.
The present rivers are thus likely to change to wider, shallower, floodprone systems with a high rate of periodic sediment transfer separated by long-term storage in between.
We may summarize the expected changes on the lower
river as:
a rise in sea level leading to inundation at delta-face and
alteration in sediment pattern;
increased impact of cyclonic storms, delta-face erosion and saline intrusion;
fine sediment deposited over channel sand in the lower
delta;
crevasse splays, avulsion and flood basin filling in the
upper delta.
This would lead to a dynamic instability over the delta system which is very likely to affect human occupation of the
delta and utilization of the river channels. For example, a
model for changing avulsion style over time, as proposed by
Blum and Aslan (2006), suggests that an early stage of valley
filling, channel occupation and low aggradation will be substituted by frequent crevassing and high aggradation in channels
and flood basins. This will be replaced in time by reoccupation
of old channels and low aggradation in nearly-filled valleys.
A large river, being an integrated system, would need to
adjust to all these changes simultaneously.
Fig. 2 Schematic diagram of expected changes in a large river

systems based on Goodbred (2003). Generalized from Gupta (2010).
Discussion
About a quarter of the World currently lives on or near deltaic coastlands or wetlands (Syvitski et al., 2005). It is perti-
78
nent to enquire about the effect of the suggested changes on

the people of deltas and coastal plains. We also recall that a
large river is an integrated system and the changes that affect the upper and middle reaches also need to be amalgamated. This raises the question whether the inhabitants
concerned would be able to cope with such changes.
Several complications should be expected to this scenario:
with climate change, river data will lose stationarity (Milly
et al., 2008);
the effect of climate change will not be globally uniform;
Morphology and behavior of large river changes along
its length, and these sectors would adjust differently to
climate change. The Mekong is an excellent example.
noise from anthropogenic changes may override the
signal from climate change.
Conclusion
Climate change and its effect on large rivers and deltas are
likely to seriously impact the environment and people. Some
generalizations are possible, but given the morphological and
behavioural differences we need to study large rivers and deltas individually. We also need to think about consequences at
both the regional and local scales for ecosystems, inhabitants
and economies. We may even need a new set of rules for understanding, managing, and utilizing rivers.
References
Blum M.D., Aslan A. (2006) Signatures of climate vs. sea-level
change within incised valley fill successions: Quaternary
examples from the Texas Gulf Coast. Sedimentary Geology 190,
177-211.
Goodbred S.L.,Jr. (2003) Response of the Ganges dispersal system to climate change: a source-to-sink view since the last
interstade. Sedimentary Geology 162, 83-104.
Gupta A. (2010) The effect of global warming in large rivers and
deltas, In: Developing Countries Facing Global Warming: A
Post-Kyoto Assessment (M. De Dapper, D. Swinne and P. Ozer,
Eds.), Brussels, Royal Academy for Overseas Sciences and United Nations, 125-138.
Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (2007) Climate
Change: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge, Cambridge
University Press.
Knox J.C. (1993) Large increases in flood magnitude in response to modest changes in climate. Nature 361, 430-432.
Milly P.C.D., Betancourt J., Falkenmark M., Hirsch R. M.,
Kundzewicz Z. W., Lettenmaier D.P., Stouffer R.J. (2008)
Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science 319,
573-574.
Syvitski J.P.M., Vrsmarty C.J., Kettner A.J., Green P. (2005)
Impact of humans on the flux of terrestrial sediment to the global coastal ocean, Science 308, 376-380.
Jakarta flood modeling with different sources

of topographic data
C.D. Doan*, S.-Y. Liong*, R. Sanders*
Abstract: Jakarta is a metropolitan city with the area of 700 km2 and it is the capital of Indonesia housing 9.5 million inhabitants.
Despite its importance, it often suffers from heavy flooding. The most devastating flood in the last 3 centuries occurred in Feb 2007.
The flood inundated about 70% of the city with some areas under 3-4 m water depth, resulted in at least 57 deaths, and caused about
450,000 residents fleeing their premises. Flood events have been occurring regularly in Jakarta. To model the flood in Jakarta, a good
topographic dataset is needed. The study explores the use of several sources of topographic data. Apart from a quite costly spot height
data acquired, two free sources, SRTM and ASTER, are considered. The discrepancy between SRTM, ASTER and spot height data for
Jakarta domain are investigated. The flood depth resulted from 3 sources are also analyzed and compared to the observed data. The
analysis shows that for a larger domain such as Jakarta, if no surveyed information is available, the SRTM data is a good source of data
to achieve adequate estimation of flood depth.
Bank erosion and channel change in the Daly River,

Northern Australia
S. Karki**, B. Wasson**, D. Pearson**, S. Maier**, W. Ahmad**
Abstract: Riverbank erosion is an important component of river channel width adjustment, can add significantly to the sediment load
of a river impacting water quality and destroys floodplains widening in on both river banks. The Daly River is a significant river in Australias wet- dry tropics. The Daly River catchment is also of immense interest for having its potential agricultural development. With
this regard, sediment accumulation in the Daly River is a subject of concern for various community groups, government bodies, researchers and land managers. However there is limited information regarding this and other phenomena in this river in a remote part of
Australia. The top soil is a very small contributor (3%) to the river sediment load and riverbanks and gullies are found to be the major
sources of sediment in this largely undisturbed river. If the riverbanks are eroding rapidly, the channel should be either migrating laterally or widening or both. We examined channel change and bank erosion for the downstream reach of the Daly River with the help of
historic aerial photographs, high resolution Quick Bird imagery and field data. We determined that the channel has been widened for the
study period of 1963-2010. We also found that the total area of bank erosion and the amount of sediment production has been increased
considerably. Slumping caused by both sub-aerial and fluvial mechanism and bank erosion by fluvial mechanism was found to be the
dominant process of erosion at this reach. Our results coincided with the increase of precipitation and river discharge for the same period signifying the hydrological influence.
* Tropical Marine Science Institute - National University of Singapore, NUS, Singapore.

** School of Environment and Life Sciences, Charles Darwin University, Australia.
Flood risk analysis and mapping in Gorontalo city,

Indonesia, using high resolution Google Earths imagery
B. Tjahjono*, M. Hidiya**, B.H. Trisasongko***
Short abstract: We found that Google Earth (2010) images obtained freely from internet are very efficient for risk assessment. About
101 hectares of the area studied were considered high risk, while 200 ha were at medium risk. The high risk areas were located in the
settlements. The river embankments (dikes) built along the river for mitigation purposes are built on flood plains. Land utilization should
be tightly controlled using strict urban planning legislation.
Keywords: risk, flood, Bone River, Gorontalo, Google Earth.
Introduction
Almost every year, Gorontalo city and its vicinity experiences flooding from Bone and Tamalate rivers. Before 1996,
the accident did not have significant impact to inhabitants.
However, flooding tends to be severe, with a notable record
being in 2002. The most recent serious inundation was in
2006. To avoid such disastrous accidents, mitigation planning is required. The first step to establishing a suitable risk
mitigation plan requires evaluation of flood hazard and risk
along the two rivers.
It is widely understood that Gorontalo is a flood-prone
area since it lies in the central basin of North Sulawesi. The
city has been built on alluvial plains and the Bolango River alluvial fan. The city is surrounded by hilly to mountainous terrain, making it particularly vulnerable to flooding (Tjahjono
et al. 2009). Mapping and study of flood hazard was conducted by Bappedalda Gorontalo (Municipal Board for Environmental Assessment of Gorontalo) in 2007, using a geomorphological approach based on 2006 Landsat data. The
study suggested that anthropogenic factors uncontrolled land
use change, appalling drainage and waste management contributed significantly to increasing flood risk. Hidiya (2011)
indicated a significant trend on land use change of Lower
Bone Watershed. In the site, forests, rice fields and uplands
have been replaced by mixed garden and settlements. The
study concluded that urban planning has a major role in
avoiding damage and fatalities in the future.
Spatial planning or mitigation planning at municipal level
requires detailed spatial data or imagery. With the remoteness of most Indonesian middle sized cities, appropriate
scale data is not available. This even occurs in most Eastern
Indonesian regencies (kabupatens), due to many reasons including availability of high resolution remote sensing data.
Availability of high resolution data sources such as Google

Earth leads to diminishing gaps on some locations. This paper
discusses the use of high-resolution Google Earth image to provide a detailed flood risk map, based on the work of Bappedalda Gorontalo.
Methods
Gorontalo Municipal is geographically located in 0 32 00.79 N
and 123 03 35.42 E and at the seashore of Tomini Gulf, Northern Sulawesi. In this research, Google Earth data dated 6th March
2010 were used. Digitizing was done online using Google Earth
digitizing facilities. Visual interpretation on land use and landforms employed common interpretation keys such as tone, texture, shape and association.
Flood hazard map of Bappedalda Gorontalo was used as an
input to estimate risks associated with vulnerability and risk
elements of land use. Risk was calculated using the definition of Thouret (1994) as follows: R = H x V x E, where R =
risk, H = hazard, V = vulnerability, and E = risk elements (or
exposure). Study site was focused along Bone and Tamalate
Rivers which are covered by high resolution imagery.
In this research, simple scoring was implemented to obtain risk levels (Table 1, 2, and 3). The hazard levels were
classified into high, moderate and low.
Flood Hazard
Score
High
moderate
Low
Tab. 1 Scoring for flood hazard.
* Soil Science & Land Resources, and PPLH, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia.
** Faculty of Agriculture, Gorontalo State University, Gorontalo, Indonesia.
*** Soil Science & Land Resources, and P4W/CRESTPENT, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia.
B. Tjahjono et al.
Vulnerability
Score
Built areas, river channel
Agriculture (rice & upland fields)
Others
Tab. 2 Scoring for vulnerability.
Risk Elements
Score
Settlements (built areas)
Rice fields
Upland fields
Mixed gardens
Forest and scrubs, river channel
Tab. 3 Scoring for risk elements.
Risks were classified into three categories based on intervals calculated from range divided by designated risk classes,
i.e. (270)/3 = 9. Risk classes are described in Table 4.
Risk categories
Range
High
>18-27
Moderate
>9-18
Low
0-9
Results and Discussion

It appears that spatial distribution of hazard levels was
closely related to landforms. Highest level could be found in
flood plains of the rivers. Areas with highest level of hazard
were usually flooded every year in the rainy season; inundation frequency is about 710 times every decade. Meanwhile,
a moderate level of hazard was attributed generally to older
alluvial plains with frequency of 3-6 times/decade (Bappedalda Gorontalo, 2007). However, we should mention here that
magnitude of inundation tends to increase in recent years
and induces substantial cost to local inhabitants who live
along the river.
In this research, vulnerability was solely determined by
land use data. Google Earth images provide the possibility
to derive detailed and up-to-date land use information.
Using the imagery, 5 major land use classes could be retrieved, i.e. built-up (dominated by settlements), rice fields,
upland (dry) fields, mixed gardens, forest/shrub. Land use
delineation on flood-prone areas concluded that built-up (settlement) areas covered 408.9 ha, which was the largest among
land use classes. After settlements, mixed garden (380.5 ha),
upland fields (364.5 ha), and rice fields (142.5 ha) were the
most abundant. Each land use class was then assigned a designated score and serves as a risk element to obtain overall
vulnerability.
Tab. 4 Classification of risk.

Fig. 1 Bone River flood risk map, Gorontalo, Indonesia.
82
Flood risk analysis and mapping on Gorontalo city, Indonesia
Using simple Boolean overlay in GIS, flood risk of the

site was calculated. The result indicated that highest risk
areas were the least abundant, covering around 101.7 ha.
These areas were to be found on Tamalate and Bone River
banks, especially in the estuary. Most of the study area
was categorized as low risk (1187.6 ha) with following
land uses: upland (dry) fields, mixed garden, rice fields
and settlements. Moderate risk (about 200.3 ha) was located in settlements and some in rice fields (Fig. 1). As most
of the medium to high risk areas are to be found in builtup areas, the local government has already built dikes to
limit the impact of most flood events. These are appropriate for all but exceptional events which may overflow
them. It should be noted here that these dikes have not
been built on the edge of flood plains, but in the middle. In
these cases, if urban development takes place behind the
dikes, but within the flood plains, the risk is significantly
higher here, during exceptional events, these urban areas
will most likely flooded very rapidly after the dikes are
overflowed.
The Google Earth image presented below shows the narrowing part of Bone River, near the estuary. This point pays an attention and further research is needed to determine its contribution to flooding. Restricting the width of the river body
would dramatically change the river bed, and a slight increase
of water flow could raise water level which, in turn, may create
flooding. The situation could be even worse if the tidal influence is also taken into account; however, we cannot currently
evaluate this impact due to the limited data available.
Conclusion
Newly acquired data (6th March 2010) available through
Google Earth was beneficial to assessing flood risk and provided the possibility of deriving detailed land use of a remote
area in Indonesia. In particular, land use information was required as a contributing factor to risk elements (exposure).
This study demonstrates that freely available high resolution imagery were advantageous to assist mitigation and
hazard-related planning in remote areas. Availability to such
data should help reduce damages and casualties in future
flooding events.
References
Bappedalda G. (2007) Kajian Geomorfologi dan Penutupan /
Penggunaan Lahan dalam hubungannya dengan bahaya banjir di
DAS Bone Hilir. Badan Penelitian dan Pengendalian Dampak
Lingkungan (Bappedalda), Provinsi Gorontalo (in Indonesian).
Hidiya M. (2011) Analisis kecocokan penggunaan lahan dan
tata ruang di DAS Bone Hilir, Provinsi Gorontalo. Thesis. Study
Program of Regional Planning, Bogor Agricultural University.
(in Indonesian).
Thouret J.C. (1994) Prvision de menace et evaluation des
risques volcaniques. In Bourdier J.-L., Le volcanisme, manuels
et mthodes, Edition BRGM, Orlans, France.
Tjahjono B., Hidiya M., Munibah K. (2009) Identifikasi Bentuklahan (Landform) di DAS Bone Hilir, Provinsi Gorontalo
dengan Data PALSAR, SRTM, dan Landsat. Prosiding Semiloka
Geomatika-SAR Nasional. Bogor. (in Indonesian)
83
Quantifying sediment budgets in data poor

environments of SE Asia:A review of remote sensing,
GIS and isotope based approaches
S. Hobgen*, G. Boggs*, B. Myers*, B. Wasson*
Short abstract: Planning for land and water resource management is becoming increasingly important in the face of a changing climate
(IPCC, 2007) . This is particularly relevant in South East Asia where many communities rely on water storages to maintain domestic
and irrigation water supplies, and for hydroelectricity generation (Lasco and Boer, 2006). As these storages fill with sediment, communities, governments and international funding agencies debate the most appropriate actions to reduce sedimentation. It is therefore vital
to identify sediment sources and processes of sediment delivery (Brown et al., 2009).
Key words: sediment, budget, erosion, catchment, river.
Sediment budgets provide a framework for assessing the

contribution of different sediment sources (Walling and
Collins, 2008). The use of radionuclide tracers and remote
sensing (RS) and GIS have been identified as the best approaches for rapid survey of large catchments (Brown et al.,
2009, Brooks et al., 2008). Radionuclide tracers provide a
bottom-up approach with estimates of the relative contribution of topsoil (rill and sheet) erosion and subsoil sediment
sources upstream from a water storage. Sediment fingerprinting can differentiate between geological formations. However, these approaches cannot differentiate between landslides,
gully erosion and river channel change. RS and GIS enable a
top down approach to sediment budgets, identifying the type
and location of major erosion features in a catchment and then
examining likely paths of sediment movement to the water
storage. However, the sediment delivery analysis is often underpinned by large assumptions or broad scale relationships.
Recently, rapid development of GIS and RS software (including free and open source software) and the increasing availability of freely accessible data have created wide ranging opportunities for analysis of sediment sources. Surprisingly few
studies have combined GIS techniques with radionuclide
tracers, despite the potential benefits of these complimentary
approaches. This paper will review current methods and explore the potential for application in the often resource and
data poor environments in South East Asia.
Topsoil tracers
Radionuclide tracers Cs-137 and Pb-210 are most commonly used to determine the relative contribution of topsoil
and subsoil erosion to sediment deposited on stream banks
and in estuaries (Wasson et al., 2010b, Nawaz, 2010). Cs-
137 and Pb-210 accumulate in the top 20cm of the soil profile (Livens and Baxter, 1988) and bind strongly to the soil
particles, including during sediment transport (Motha et al.,
2002). Concentrations of radionuclides are measured using
High Resolution Gamma Spectrometry (Murray et al., 1987).
In the equatorial zone, the lifespan of fallout radionuclide
Cs-137 as a tracer is limited. Cs-137 has a short half-life of
30 years and given fallout peaked in the mid 1960s and
ceased in the 1980s, Cs levels are now less than 35% of original levels (Tims et al., 2010). Plutonium 239 shows promise
as a replacement for Cs- 137 measured with high sensitivity
by Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (Child et al., 2008). Currently the cost of sample analysis may limit the applications
in SEA in the short term. Lead 210 (excess) is a naturally occurring radionuclide with a short half-life of 22 years, it is
also useful as a topsoil tracer. However several recent studies have reported challenges with using Pb-210 including
negative Pb values (Wasson et al., 2010b, Nawaz, 2010) and
the complication of ongoing fallout increasing Pb-210 concentrations in sediments that have remained exposed to the
atmosphere over a period of time (Douglas et al., 2009).
Sediment fingerprinting
Radionuclide tracers have been complemented with sediment fingerprinting in a number of recent studies (Munksgaard et al., 2003, Douglas et al., 2009). The concentrations of
rare earth elements along with common elements such as organic matter and nitrogen content of soils can indicate the contribution of different geological formations to overall sediment
load. This approach is more successful in geologically heterogeneous catchments, where there are obvious differences between rock types and compositions (Douglas et al., 2009).
* Research Institute for Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Australia.
S. Hobgen et al.
Mapping sediment sources

and delivery
Mapping of predominantly subsoil sediment sources within a catchment requires consideration of the distribution of
erosion features, changes in size and shape over time and
estimations of volume of sediment production. The suitability of a method is largely determined by the scale of the
study, and the availability and accuracy of data.
Mapping the distribution and density

of sediment sources
Contemporary distribution of sediment sources can be
mapped using a variety of different imagery (Brooks et al.,
2008). Medium to high resolution imagery (< 30m pixel eg.
Quickbird, Worldview, SPOT 5, Cartosat etc) is required to
map landslide scars, gully erosion features and locations of
channel migration and can be combined with automated analysis techniques to rapidly map large areas (Joyce et al., 2009).
However, this imagery is often prohibitively costly for large
scale studies. Quickbird and SPOT 5 imagery are publicly
available through Google Earth, providing a valuable source
of imagery in SEA. However, in the current Google Earth
software, analyses are limited to manual methods, hence this
is only practical in smaller catchments.
Analysing changes over time

Comparison of historical and contemporary aerial photography is the most common method for assessing changes
over time, including incidence of landslides (Metternicht et
al., 2005) and growth of gully erosion features (McCloskey,
2010, Sattar et al., 2010), and movements and bank collapse
in river channels (Karki et al., 2011). Acquiring historical
and new aerial photography is often not possible in South
East Asia, due to funding and access restrictions.
The Landsat satellite imagery archive provides an invaluable historical data set for analysis of temporal changes, beginning in the 1970s (USGS, 2011). Recent research on sediment sources in Timor Leste (Rouwenhorst et al., 2009) used
Landsat 5/7 imagery to investigate channel change. However,
the low resolution of Landsat imagery (30 m) is best suited to
identifying large scale changes (Vrieling, 2006).
SPOT satellite imagery provides opportunities for medium
term analysis, the high resolution imagery archive beginning in
1986 with the Spot 1 satellite (Vrieling, 2006). Some images
from the Spot 5 satellite (5 m resolution) are available for use,
through Google Earth. For small scale climate change projects
a limited number of images (5-10) may be provided by the Spot
Image Planet Action initiative (www.planet-action.org).
Estimating volume of sediment sources

Estimating the volume of sediment produced by individual landslides, gullies and channel slumps requires a three
dimensional understanding of sediment sources. This can be
86
obtained through use of three dimensional data, or use of

two dimensional data supplemented by field measurements
and generalised equations. Three dimensional data is usually obtained from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). DEMs
created from stereo pairs of aerial photographs are the most
popular means for this kind of analysis (Martnez-Casasnovas, 2003). LiDAR and Cartosat satellite imagery also have
the capacity to create high resolution DEMs for calculating
changes in gully depth and sidewall retreat rates, LiDAR also
has potential to determine long term sedimentation rates
(Brown et al., 2009). Sattar (2010) used Cartosat-1 stereo
satellite images (2.5 m resolution) and aerial photography for
3D mapping of gullies in the Australian Daly River catchment. LiDAR and Cartosat imagery are relatively expensive
to purchase, and require resource intensive studies to calculate sediment production rates.
Multi-temporal two dimensional mapping of sediment
sources can be supplemented with field measurements and generalised equations for calculating sediment production. Sattar
(unpublished data) proposed a relationship between the gully
density and gully sediment yield based on published studies
(cited in Wasson et al., 2010a). Malamud et al. (2004) suggest
an empirical equation for estimating sedimentation induced by
earthquakes. Karki et al. (2011, this conference) are determining channel change and channel slump contributions from the
horizontal movement of channel banks identified by satellite
imagery and field measurements.
Mapping soil surface erosion risk

Identification of sites of surface erosion and determination
of erosion risk by GIS is well established (eg. Boggs et al.,
2001, Witz and Muga, 2009). Many studies use variations of
the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) (Wischmeier and Smith, 1978) as all factors are spatially variable
and it encompasses both topographic and anthropogenic factors contributing to erosion risk. If the appropriate data are
available, these can be used to calculate soil erosion rates.
More often data are used to map relative erosion risk (Boggs
et al., 2001) and to evaluate the impacts of land use change
and soil conservation practices (Mati et al., 2000).
GIS based RUSLE modelling is a particularly important tool
for South East Asia, as the data required are mostly publicly
available: ASTERV2 30m resolution DEM data (ASTER,
2009) for slope steepness and length; Landsat TM imagery for
land cover analysis and Quickbird Imagery for identifying
and verifying conservation techniques. The WorldClim (Hijmans et al., 2005) global climate model provides a free spatial data set for monthly rainfall, which can be used to estimate spatially variable R factor values within a catchment
area (Angulo-Martnez and Beguera, 2009). The exception
remains access to comprehensive soil mapping which is
often unavailable or incomplete. Some studies have used a
substitute base data layer, such as geological mapping to
create land units, from which soil properties are determined
by laboratory analysis of representative soil samples (Mati
et al., 2000).
Quantifying sediment budgets in data poor environments of SE Asia
Creating an indicative sediment

budget
Radionuclide tracer results from the water storage or estuary can provide an indication of the relative contribution of
topsoil and subsoil to fine sediments. A nested sampling strategy can be developed through a catchment to identify the sites
of major sediment sources: from the water storage, moving
upstream, assessing the relative contributions of each major
tributary.
Manual investigation of high resolution imagery can quickly reveal major gullies, landslide scars, and sites of channel
change, which can then be further investigated using the
remote sensing and GIS approaches discussed earlier. Fingerprinting the chemical constitution of sediments in the water
storage can also indicate the relative importance of different
geological formations where geological diversity exists. The
combination of approaches can provide maps of high priority areas and erosion types to target appropriate management
activities to reduce erosion loss and rehabilitate affected
areas. Methods for determining the sediment delivery ratio
of the catchment have not been included in this paper, therefore these methods only estimate the volume of sediment
entering the waterway.
Large scale quantification of sediment sources is an inexact
science. There are constant tradeoffs between the accuracy of
the sediment estimates, and the amount of data and resources
required to produce the estimates. The additional time, effort
and resources required to determine rates of change and sediment volumes need to be evaluated against the potential benefits, as identifying and mapping of priority areas may be sufficient to assist managers in strategic catchment management
and project planning.
This paper provides options for sediment source identification
in data and resource poor environments; however the methods
involved still require not insignificant resources, skills and time.
In the current context it is highly unlikely that these direct approaches could be applied to every catchment in South East
Asia. However, with further research, increasing data availability and improved technology these approaches may provide a basis from which a more generalised approach to determining sediment budgets for guiding catchment management
policies and projects could be developed.
References
Angulo-Martnez M., Beguera S. (2009) Estimating rainfall
erosivity from daily precipitation records: A comparison among
methods using data from the Ebro Basin (NE Spain). Journal of
Hydrology 379, 111-121.
ASTER (2009) Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and
Reflection Radiometer. Editor: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and
Industry (METI) of Japan and the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
Boggs G., Devonport C., Evans K., Puig P. (2001) GIS-based
rapid assessment of erosion risk in a small catchment in the
wet/dry tropics of Australia. Land Degradation & Development
12, 417-434.
Brooks A., Knight J., Spencer J. (2008) A remote sensing

approach for mapping and classifying riparian gully erosion in
Tropical Australia. Nathan, Queensland: Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University.
Brown A.G., Carey C., Erkens G., Fuchs M., Hoffmann T.,
Macaire J.J., Moldenhauer K.M., Walling D.E. (2009) From
sedimentary records to sediment budgets: Multiple approaches to
catchment sediment flux. Geomorphology 108, 35-47.
Child D.P., Hotchkis M.A.C., Williams M.L. (2008) High sensitivity analysis of plutonium isotopes in environmental samples
using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry 23, 765768.
Douglas G., Caitcheon G., Palmer M. (2009) Sediment source
identification and residence times in the Maroochy River estuary, southeast Queensland, Australia. Environmental Geology
57, 629639.
Hijmans R.J., Cameron S.E., Parra J.L., Jones P.G., Jarvis A.
(2005) WorldClim Global Climate data [Online]. Museum
of Vertebrate Zoology. Available: http://www.worldclim.org
[Accessed 25].
IPCC (ed.) (2007) Climate Change 2007: the physical science
basis. Contribution of Working group 1 to the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York , NY, USA: Cambridge
University Press.
Joyce K.E., Belliss S.R., Samsanov S.V., McNeill S.J., Glassey P.J.
(2009) A review of the status of satellite remote sensing and
image processing techniques for mapping natural hazards and disasters. Progress in Physical Geography 33, 183-207.
Karki S., Wasson R. J., Pearson D., Maier S. & Ahmad W. (2011)
Linking pattern to process: The implications of landscape
change for catchment management and water quality. Remote
Sensing, Natural Hazards and Environmental Change. CRISP
NUS Singapore and LMV-Clervolc, Clermont-Ferand.
Lasco R. D., Boer R. (2006) An integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Adaptations and Vulnerability in Watershed Areas and Communities in Southeast Asia.
Livens F. R., Baxter M. S. (1988) Particle size and radionuclide
levels in some West Cumbrian Soils. The Science of the Total
Environment 70 1-17 1.
Malamud B. D., Turcotte D. L., Guzzetti F., Reichenbach P.
(2004) Landslides, earthquakes, and erosion. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 229, 45-59
Martnez-Casasnovas J. A. (2003) A spatial information technology approach for the mapping and quantification of gully
erosion. Catena 50, 293- 308.
Mati B. M., Morgan R. P. C., Gichuk F. N., Quintor J. N., Brewer T. R., Liniger H. P. (2000) Assessment of erosion hazard
with the USLE and GIS: A case study of the Upper Ewaso Ngiro
North basin of Kenya. Journal of Applied Earth Obersvations
Geoinformatics 2, 78-86.
McCloskey G. L. (2010) Riparian Erosion Morphology, Processes and Causes along the Victoria River, Northern Territory,
Australia. PhD, Charles Darwin University.
Metternicht G., Hurni L., Gogu R. (2005) Remote sensing of
landslides: An analysis of the potential contribution to geo-spatial systems for hazard assessment in mountainous environ-
87
S. Hobgen et al.
ments. Remote Sensing of Environment 98, 284-303.

Motha J.A., Wallbrink P.J., Hairsine P.B. & Grayson R.B.
(2002) Tracer properties of eroded sediment and source material. Hydrological Processes 16, 1983-2000.
Munksgaard N.C., Lim K. & Parry D.L. (2003) Rare earth elements as provenance indicators in North Australian estuarine
and coastal marine sediments. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 57, 399-409.
Murray A.S., Marthen R., Johnston A. & Martin P. (1987)
Analysis for naturally occuring radionuclides at environmental
concentrations by gamma spectronometry. Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry 115, 263-288.
Nawaz M. (2010) Sediment Sources near the Extreme Ends of
the Catchment Continuum and the Topographic Dependence of
Denudation in a Global Context. PhD, Charles Darwin University.
Rouwenhorst J., Boggs G., Wasson R.J., Ahmad W., Mau R., Carvalho N. (2009) The use of GIS to determine changes in Caraulan
River Delta, Timor Leste. In: Fisher R., Myers B. et al. (eds.), GIS
Applications for Sustainable Development and Good Governance
in Eastern Indonesia and Timor Leste. Darwin: CDU Press.
Sattar F., Wasson R.J., Pearson D., Boggs G., Ahmad W.,
Nawaz M. (2010) The development oof Geoinformatics based
framewaork to auntify gully erosion. International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geo-Conference & Expo Surveying Geology &
Mining Ecology Management (SGEM). Albena, Bulgaria.
88
Tims S.G., Everett S.E., Fifield L.K., Hancock G.J., Bartley R.

(2010) Plutonium as a tracer of soil and sediment movement in
the Herbert River, Australia. Nuclear Instruments and Methods
in Physics Research Section B: Beam Interactions with Materials and Atoms 268, 1150-1154.
USGS (2011) Landsat Imagery [Online]. Unites States Geological Survey. Available: http://glovis.usgs.gov [Accessed].
Vrieling A. (2006) Satellite remote sensing for water erosion
assessment: A review. Catena 65, 2 - 18.
Walling D. E. & Collins A. L. (2008) The catchment sediment
budget as a management tool. Environmental Science and Policy
11, 136-143.
Wasson R. J., Amaral A., Rouwenhorst J., Fifield K.,
Chauhan N., Pietsch T., Singhvi A. K. (2010a) Timor Leste:
A rapidly eroding landscape in the coral traingle.
Wasson R. J., Furlonger L., Parry D., Pietsch T., Valentine E.,
Williams D. (2010b) Sediment sources and channel dynamics,
Daly River, Northern Australia. Geomorphology 114, 161-174.
Wischmeier W.H., Smith D.D. (1978) Predicting rainfall erosion losses: a guide to conservation planning, Washington, Dept.
of Agriculture, Science and Education Administration.
Witz T., Muga E. (2009) GIS-based Rapid Risk Assessment of erosion potential in Aesesa catchment, Nage Keo - Ngada, Flores,
NTT, Indonesia. In: Fisher R., Myers B. et al. (eds.), GIS Applications for Sustainable Development and Good Governance in
Eastern Indonesia and Timor Leste. Darwin: CDU Press.
Exploring the Red River, Vietnam using SPOT data

M. Nguyen Dinh*
Abstract: The Red River is the second largest river in Vietnam with national and international importance. It is considered both
resources, environment and hazard for human survival and development. For sustainable development, the river needs to be fully understood by scientists and managers with the aid of spatial information technologies. This paper describes the use of SPOT satellite imagery
to observe the Red River change due to natural and human activities since 1986 when first SPOT satellite was launched. It was found
that SPOT images are powerful, reliable data sources to derive useful information on the river resource, environment and hazard. More
studies are required to better understand the river using new data and analysis techniques in the years to come
Development of a Peace Corps Masters International

program focused on volcanic hazard mitigation
in Indonesia
W.I. Rose**, S.A. Carn**, J.J. Wellik Li**
Abstract: The Peace Corps Masters International (PCMI) program combines a Masters degree with Peace Corps community service.
PCMI graduate students spend one year on a university campus in the U.S. completing academic studies, followed by two years of Peace
Corps service in communities in developing countries. Michigan Technological University (Houghton, MI, USA) currently has more
PCMI graduate students actively serving as Peace Corps volunteers than any other university or college in the U.S. Michigan Techs
PCMI program spans many disciplines, including forestry, civil and environmental engineering, and natural hazards mitigation. The
natural hazards PCMI program at Michigan Tech is unique and addresses the crosscutting area of disaster preparedness and mitigation
by building public awareness and providing technical linkages to schools and communities about geological hazards. The programs
scope includes earthquakes, volcanic hazards, landslides, debris flows, droughts and floods and also indirect linkages such as the impact
of these events on infrastructural elements like community development, environmental education, ecotourism, transportation, health,
sanitation and water quality. The focus of this program is to improve the effectiveness of geological hazards mitigation in appropriate
Peace Corps countries. Michigan Tech has established significant linkage for this work with government agencies in several selected
countries, particularly in the areas of volcanic hazards. To date, the main regional focus for volcanic hazards projects has been Latin
America, but here we describe our efforts to expand Michigan Techs PCMI program to Indonesia, which has more historically active
volcanoes (76) than any other country. This, coupled with very high population density (Java is worlds most densely populated island)
and limited monitoring resources creates unique and vital challenges for volcanic hazard mitigation. The Peace Corps recently returned
to Indonesia after an absence of several decades, and the first cohort of PCMI volunteers, including one Michigan Tech student, is
currently in East Java province. Our hope is that the PCMI students can help with technical infrastructure and also with social outreach
and hazards communication in rural Indonesian communities. Our partners in this effort are the Indonesian Center for Volcanological
and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP).
CVGHM operates 70 volcano observatories across the vast Indonesian archipelago, many on remote islands, but all with significant
human population at risk. The USGS VDAP is currently engaged in infrastructure development for volcanic hazard mitigation in
Indonesia (and East Java in particular), including installation of new monitoring equipment and training of CVGHM scientists. Given
this tripartite focus on East Java, the expansion of Michigan Techs PCMI program into Indonesia is timely and we look forward to
increasing Michigan Techs PCMI presence in Indonesia in the future. We also welcome and encourage collaboration between our PCMI
students and other institutions working on natural hazard mitigation in the SE Asia-Pacific region.
* Hanoi University of Science and Technology, C4 Building, No 1 Dai Co Viet Street, Hanoi, Vietnam.
** Department of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, USA.
Quantifying population exposure near volcanoes

using physical models of natural hazards
and globally consistent data sets:
Case studies from Java, Indonesia
J.J. Wellik Li*, R.E. Wolf*, S.A. Carn*
Abstract: Threat from natural disasters is commonly understood as the combination of both population exposure and the probability of
hazardous events occurring. The purpose of this pilot study is to create a consistent, repeatable method for estimating volcanic hazards
exposure that is based on physical models of potential catastrophic events at volcanic edifices. The emergence of GIS technology and
the compilation of consistent population estimates (namely, those provided by the ORNL LandScan project) allow for comparable studies to be made on a global scale.
Simple statistical calculations have already been conducted to quantify the overall population living within 30 km of volcanic centers.
These figures are most notably reported in the latest edition of the Smithsonian Institution Volcanoes of the World catalog (Simkin and
Siebert, 1994). While these data facilitate identification of volcanoes that lie in rural vs. urban settings, the distribution of population
and true hazard exposureitems that are of practical importance to risk managersare lost due to the lack of detail. This study reaches
beyond the mere 30 km hazard zone and applies the LaharZ, EnergCone, and AshFall models for eruptions between VEI ~1-5 to determine population exposure to volcanic hazards at each volcano. Furthermore, the cumulative populations are represented as curves
plotted against distance from the volcano. This simple improvement shows how populations might be distributed with distance from a
volcanic center.
The effect of applying physical models to the estimation of population exposure shows the enormous influence of topography and wind
vectors on the distribution of hazards. The purpose of creating and executing this methodology is two-fold. First, meaningful comparisons of threat can be made on a global or regional basis. When combined with estimates of probability of occurrence, this has the benefit
of being able to more accurately identify which volcanoes may be in need of increased risk management and monitoring resources.
Second, the use of physical natural hazard models permits the population distribution to be analyzed in relation to likely hazardous areas
and not just proximity to volcanic centers.
For the purpose of this poster, examples of our methodology are shown from the island of Java, Indonesiathe worlds most densely
populated island. This work is a major stepping stone in the relative quantifiable analysis of global volcanic risk. The desired goal is a
meaningful tool that risk managers can use to quickly assess the potential threat posed during a developing volcanic crisis.
* Department of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, USA.
Aggradation and degradation from lahars in a catchment

on the active Semeru mapped and measured from
DEMs, aerial photographs and satellite imagery
J.-C. Thouret*, J.-F. Oehler**, A. Solikhin***, A. Gupta****, S.C. Liew****
Abstract: The geomorphic response of rivers to disturbances from volcanic eruptions has been studied from lahars of the Semeru volcano, Indonesia. The study also estimates the sediment balance between aggradation and degradation in stream channels. Degradation
increased in the Lengkong River in 2007-2008, 12 years after the last eruption of the Semeru and the annual downcutting of the river
bed reached 0.5-0.85 m. The annual sediment yield for the surveyed channel and catchment were 3-8x105 and 3.3x104 m3km2, respectively. The basin has not yet entirely recovered from disturbances induced by the 1941 lava or the 1994-95 pyroclastic flows. The pattern
of aggradation and degradation varied between the Lengkong and Koboan rivers. A rapid rate of aggradation was followed by degradation at the rate of 37-80 m3 in the Lengkong, whereas aggradation continued after 16 years in the Koboan. The measured annual sediment
yield (2007-2010) from the catchment area was 1.5-3.3 x104 m3km2, an order less than the published values for similar volcanoes including the Semeru.
Keywords: lahar, Semeru, aggradation, degradation, DEM.
Introduction: scope and methods

We have traced the evolution of the Lengkong, a tributary of
the Koboan River, that frequently convey frequent rain-triggered lahars to the southeastern ring plain of the active Semeru
volcano, east Java, Indonesia since 2005 (Fig. 1; Thouret et al.,
2007). We have studied the geomorphic response of these rivers
to volcanic activity and computed the balance between aggradation and degradation at channel scale.
Lavigne (2004) indicated that sediment yield from smallscale eruptions is very difficult to calculate accurately. Longand short-term post-eruption sediment yield has been studied
Mt. St. Helens (Major et al., 2000) and Pinatubo (Pierson et
al., 1996), but erosion in basins disturbed by rain-triggered
lahars on persistently active volcanoes has not been properly assessed (Harris et al., 2006; Lavigne and Thouret,
2002).
This study on the intermediate and lower reaches of
the Koboan and Lengkong rivers is based on aerial photographs (1981 and 1990), a SPOT 5 image (2003), geological mapping from low-altitude aerial photos (2005
and 2008), and D-GPS and terrestrial LIDAR-based
DEMs acquired between 2005 and 2011. We examine a
cycle of aggradation and degradation (sensu Pierson et
al., 2011), which followed the huge input (3.5 to 6 million m3) of sediment after the 1994-95 eruptions.
Long-term evolution (1981-2010)

of the Koboan-Lengkong Basin
Fig. 1 Location of the survey area on the SE flank of Semeru volcano.
The 1981 and 1990 aerial photos and the 2003 SPOT
image show the following response: (1) separation of the
upper basin of the Smut river by the 1941 lava flow; (2)
widening of the entrenched channels except along the
* PRES Clermont, Universit Blaise Pascal, Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, 5 rue Kessler, 63038 Clermont-Ferrand, France.
** Altran Ouest, Atlantide, Technople Brest-Iroise, Brest, France.
*** Centre of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation, Bandung, Indonesia.
**** Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing, National University of Singapore, Singapor.
J.-C. Thouret et al.
Fig. 2 Interpreted geological sketch

of the basin of the Koboan-Lengkong
rivers from 1981 (A) and 1990 (B) aerial photos and (C) a SPOT5 (2.5 m pixel)
image (23/10/2003). Note: (1) the c.1 km
overbank area of the 1994-95 pyroclasticflow deposits; 2) the c.250 m and 100 m
southward shift of Koboan and Lengkong
rivers, respectively.
lowermost Lengkong, where the narrow rectangular channel follows a

NW-SE trending fault (Fig. 2), and;
(3) formation of a set of degradational terraces formed along the depositional reach of the lower Koboan and
Lengkong rivers (Fig. 3).
The observations on the Semeru
differ from examples documented
elsewhere on active volcanoes (Procter et al., 2010; Pierson et al., 2011).
This is due to: (1) a regular supply
of tephra from daily eruptions generating a high volume of sediment
in the upper reach of the valley; (2)
volcanic gravel and sand transported from the summit area towards
the lower catchment in weekly lahars and/or floods during the sixmonth rainy season; (3) pyroclastic
flows, occurring 5 to 7 years on average, that supply 3.5 - 6 106 m3 per
basin leading to a rapid formation
of aggradational terraces; (4) rapid
downcutting in the Lengkong channel after a 12-year period of gradual aggradation that used up the pyroclastic debris of the upper reaches; (5) a combination of the daily
trigger rainfall of 50 - 120 mm and
discharges from tributary channels
and aquifers (A in Fig. 2C) leading
to small (<400 m3/s) and large (400
- 600 m3/s) lahars.
The channels of the Koboan and
Lengkong differ morphologically.
The Koboan has a wide braided channel, adjusted to the ongoing transfer
of a huge amount of sediment following the emplacement of the
1994-95 pyroclastic-flow deposits.
This transfer of sediment along the
middle section of Koboan shows up
in the 2008 3D-DEM. In contrast,
the single channel of the Lengkong is entrenched in sediment deposited in 2007. The terraces at the confluence of
the two rivers have been eroded but sediment migrating
down the Koboan has buried the volcaniclastic fan between
the two rivers in 2005.
94
Short-term changes (2006-2010)

in the Lengkong River
Aerial photos and images of the last thirty-odd years indicate that channel aggradation and degradation are governed by
Aggradation and degradation from lahar in a catchment on the active Semeru
the geomorphology of the two rivers (Figs.

2 and 3). Figure 4 illustrates such changes
in the lower Lengkong between 2006 and
2010 as recorded by annual DEMs.
Degradation increased in the Lengkong
in 2007-2008, 12 years after the volcanic
eruption of 1994-95. The rate of degradation ranged from 37 to 80 m3/m and river
bed downcutting from 0.5 m to 0.85 m per
year. The computed average annual sediment yields for the channel area surveyed
and the catchment were) 3-88x105 and 1.5
to 3.3x104 m3/km2, respectively (Table 1).
Discussion
Fig. 3 Mosaic of the 2005 and 2008 low-altitude aerial photographs of the Lengkong
and Koboan valleys draped on an 3D-DEM. Processed with SonarScope 3D Viewer
software (courtesy of IFREMER).
The geomorphic response to sediment

loading after the 1994-95 eruption was
twofold: rapid aggradation in the river
channels followed by degradation that has
increased in the Lengkong since 2007.
Given the larger volume of the input, sediment continues to migrate down the
Koboan. This study is constrained by (1)
lack of information regarding remobilization of sediment in the upper channels;
(2) lack of rainfall data above an elevation of 1000 m, and.; (3) suspected recent
changes in the rainfall pattern. We also
need to investigate: (i) possible recent
variations in sediment supply and; (ii) an
Fig. 4 A. Shaded relief DEMs of the lower

Lenkong reach, calculated from D-GPS (2006
to 2010) and LIDAR data (2010). B. Elevation
difference map between 2007, 2008 and 2010,
calculated from the DEMs of Fig. 4A.
95
3. The measured annual (20072010) catchment sediment yield is 1.53.3x104 m3/km2/yr, one order less than
published values on similar volcanoes
and past values determined from the
Semeru itself.
References
Harris A.J.L., Vallance J.W., Kimberly P.G.,
Rose W.I., Matias O., Flynn L.P., Garbeil
H. (2006) Downstream aggradation owing
to lava dome extrusion and rainfall runoff at
Volcano Santiaguito, Guatemala. Geological Society of America Special Paper 412,
85-104.
Lavigne F., 2004 Rate of sediment yield following small-scale volcanic eruptions: a quantitative assessment at the Merapi and Semeru
Fig. 5 Elevation difference maps between 2010-2008 (A) and 2008-2007 (B) draped on stratovolcanoes, Java, Indonesia. Earth Sur3D-views of the Lengkong valley DEMs.
face Processes and Landforms 29, 1045-1058.
Lavigne F., Thouret J.-C. (2002)
Linear
Sediment transportation and deposiAggradation Degradation
Budget
aggrad./
Sediment yield
tion by rain-triggered lahars at Merdegrad. rate
api volcano, central Java, Indonesia.
surveyed
catchment
Geomorphology 49, 45-69.
3
3
3
3
area
area
(m )
(m )
(m )
(m /m)
Major J.J., Pierson T., Dine(m3/km2/yr) (m3/km2/yr)
hart R., Costa J. (2000) Sediment
2010-2008
31 440
106 980
-75 540
-37,77
-334247,79
-15737,50
yield following severe volcanic dis2010-2007
16 940
176 280
-159 340
-79,67
-470029,50
-33195,83
turbance A two decade perspective from Mount St. Helens. Geolo2008-2007
31 440
120 590
-89 150
-44,58
-788938,05
-18572,92
gy 28, 819-822.
Tab. 1 Aggradation - degradation balance between 2007 and 2010 calculated from D-GPS Pierson T.C., Pringle P.T., Cameron
and LIDAR DEMs.
K.A. (2011) Magnitude and timiong
of downstream channel aggradation
and degradation in response to a dome-building eruption at Mt. Hood,
apparent decrease in lahar frequency and/or magnitude over
Oregon. Geological Society of America Bulletin 123, 3-20.
the last three years.
Pierson T.C., Daag A.S., Delos Reyes P.J., Regalado M.T.M.,
Solidum R.U., Tubianosa B.S. (1996) Flow and deposition of
Conclusion
posteruption hot lahars on the east side of Mt. Pinatubo, JulyOctober 1991. In: Newhall C.G., Punongbayan R.S. (Eds.), Fire
Geomorphic responses of rivers to volcanic disturbance of
and Mud: Eruptions and Lahars of Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines.
the Semeru indicate:
Phivolcs & Univ. Washington, Seattle, pp. 921-950.
1. River basins have not yet recovered from the effects of
Procter J.N., Cronin S.J., Fuller I.C., Lube G., Manville V.,
the 1941 lava flow and the 1994-5 pyroclastic flows,
(2010) Quantifiying the geomorphic impact of a lake breakout
2. The pattern of aggradation and degradation after a vollahar, Mount Ruapehu, New Zealand. Geology 38, 67-70.
canic disturbance varies. Aggradation has been continuous
in the Koboan for 16 years, whereas fast aggradation has Thouret J.C., Lavigne F., Suwa H., Bambang Sukajat, Surono,
(2007) Volcanic hazards at Mount Semeru, East Java (Indonesia),
been followed by degradation at a rate of 37 -80 m3 / m in
with emphasis on lahars. Bulletin of Volcanology 70, 221-244.
the Lengkong since 2007.
96
Contents
Introduction J.-C. Thouret, S.C. Liew, A. Gupta............................................................................................................
Welcome Address L.K. Kwoh .......................................................................................................................................
International charter for earthquake in Japan M. Nagai (Keynote address) .............................................................
The contribution of space based observations to understanding and addressing geohazards: a CNES
perspective S. Hosford..................................................................................................................................................
11
The International Charter for disaster mitigation: Participation by ASTER project M. Abrams and K. Duda ......
15
Remote sensing of earthquake effects following the 2010 Mw 7.1 and 2011 Mw 6.3 events in Canterbury, New
Zealand S. Levick...........................................................................................................................................................
15
Understanding the fatal 2006 dike breaching of Mayon Volcano using high-resolution imageries R. Eco,
A.M.F. Lagmay, E. Paguican ..............................................................................................................................................
17
Geology, tectonics, and the 2002-2003 eruption of the Semeru Volcano, Indonesia: Interpreted from high-spatial
resolution satellite imagery A. Solikhin, J.-C. Thouret, A. Gupta, A.J.L. Harris and S.C. Liew...................................
21
Satellite remote-sensing analysis of casualties and damage from the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano
F. Lavigne ..........................................................................................................................................................................
25
Risk microzonation of Yogyakarta city following to the 2010 eruption of Merapi Volcano D.S. Hadmoko,
L.W. Santosa, M.A. Marfai and F. Lavigne.........................................................................................................................
25
Quantifying volcanic hazard and risk C. Magill (Keynote address) ...........................................................................
27
Topographic characterization of the Auckland Volcanic Field (New Zealand) Implications for lava flow hazard
mapping G. Kereszturi, J. Procter, K. Nmeth, J. Lindsay, J. Kenny, S.J. Cronin, M. Bebbington and G. Jordn .........
33
Application of TanDEM-X data to volcanic hazard assessment and mapping: Example from Merapi Volcano,
Indonesia S.J. Charbonnier, C.B. Connor, L. Connor, T.Dixon and R. Gertisser .........................................................
35
The role of remote sensing data on the 2010 crisis at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia Surono, A. Solikhin,
A.B. Santoso, P. Jousset, J.S. Pallister, M. Boichu and S. Carn........................................................................................
39
Detecting fault slip at Mayon Volcano using permanent scatterer interferometry A.M.F. Lagmay, M.G. Bato,
E.M.R. Paguican and H. Zebker ......................................................................................................................................
43
Sand dune conservation zone based on tsunami inundation hazard in Parangtritis coastal area, Bantul
regency, Yogyakarta special province R.F. Putri, D. Mardiatno, J. Sartohadi and J.T. Sri Sumantyo ........................
47
Evacuation route determination for tsunami mitigation using remote sensing data and Geographic
Information Systems at Parangtritis coastal area, Yogyakarta-Indonesia J. Mardiatno, R.F. Putri, M. Susmayadi
and D.S. Sayudi..............................................................................................................................................................
51
Remote sensing of volcanic emissions in the Asia-Pacific region S.A. Carn (Keynote address) ..........................
55
Monitoring carbon dioxide emissions from volcanoes from space and from ground based networks
F. M. Schwandner, C.G. Newhall and S.S. Marcial............................................................................................................
61
Detection of volcanic dust by AERONET sunphotometers S. Salinas and S.C. Liew .............................................
61
PSInSAR detection of ground subsidence and fault movement in Muntinlupa City, Metro Manila and Bian,
Laguna A.M.F. Lagmay, R.N. Eco and J. Agdeppa........................................................................................................
63
Tropical forest monitoring, socializing the pixel to inform management and livelihood implications: A case
study from Indonesian West Timor R. Fisher .............................................................................................................
67
El Nio and rainfall influence on the temporal and spatial patterns of vegetation fires in insular Southeast Asia
S.C. Liew and J. Miettinen ..............................................................................................................................................
67
Assessing the hydrologic response of wetlands to restoration: A remote sensing perspective A.M. Melesse
and F. Miralles-Wilhelm......................................................................................................................................................
69
Remote sensing of reservoirs in large Asian river basins X.X. Lu, L. Ran, X. Yang and S. Liu .........................................
71
Large floods and average climate: Is there a relationship in the Asia-Australia Monsoon Region? R. Wasson ....
71
Spatial information for analyzing changing hydro-meteorological risk C.J. Van Westen (Keynote address) ........
73
Global warming on large tropical rivers A. Gupta and S.C. Liew ..............................................................................
77
Jakarta flood modeling with different sources of topographic data C.D. Doan, S.-Y. Liong and R. Sanders........
79
Bank erosion and channel change in the Daly River, Northern Australia S. Karki, B. Wasson, D. Pearson, S. Maier
and W. Ahmad ...................................................................................................................................................................
79
Flood risk analysis and mapping in Gorontalo city, Indonesia, using high resolution Google Earths imagery
B. Tjahjono, M. Hidiya and B.H. Trisasongko .....................................................................................................................
81
Quantifying sediment budgets in data poor environments of SE Asia and Northern Australia; a review of
Remote Sensing, GIS and isotope based approaches S. Hobgen, G. Boggs, B. Myers and R. Wasson ...............
85
Exploring the Red River, Vietnam using SPOT data M. Nguyen Dinh ......................................................................
89
Development of a Peace Corps Masters International program focused on volcanic hazard mitigation in
Indonesia W.I. Rose, S.A. Carn and J.J. Wellik Li .........................................................................................................
89
Quantifying population exposure near volcanoes using physical models of natural hazards and globally
consistent data sets: Case studies from Java, Indonesia J.J. Wellik Li, R.E. Wolf and S.A. Carn ..........................
91
Aggradation and degradation from lahars in a catchment on the active Semeru: mapped and measured from
DEMs, aerial photographs and satellite imagery J.-C. Thouret, J.-F. Oehler, A. Solikhin, A. Gupta, S.C. Liew ........
93
Achev dimprimer en dcembre 2011

Diazo1 Reprographie
CERAMAC
Clermont-Ferrand, 2011
ISBN 978-2-84516-554-0
ISSN 1242-7780

Sensores Remotos y Riesgo Ambiental Serie

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Sensores Remotos y Riesgo Ambiental Serie

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Conference Proceedings

REMOTE SENSING, NATURAL HAZARDS

Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing and Processing,

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change, p. 3-4

Fig. 1 2000 flood in the vicinity of Phnom Penh (Courtesy of

Une confrence internationale Tldtection, alas, risques

J.-C. Thouret, Soo Chin Liew, Avijit Gupta

France. Sixteen graduate students from the partner countries

This is Laboratory of Excellence Clervolc contribution n5.

spatiales taient reprsentes : le Centre National dEtudes

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change, p. 5-6

CRISP is honoured to have this opportunity to co-host the

* Director, CRISP, National University of Singapore.

CRISPs scientists actively participate in international

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change, p. 7-10

International charter for earthquake in Japan

and Major disasters. International space organizations were

International Charter for Earthquake

Emergency satellite observation and rapid analysis is

ALOS(PSR), FORMOSAT-2, THEOS, WorldView-2, RapidEye, EO-1, LANDSAT-5, SPOT-5, TerraSAR-X_

ALOS(AV2, PSR), FORMOSAT-2, Cartosat-2, KOMPSAT-2, GeoEye-1, RapidEye, SPOT-5, HJ_

FORMOSAT-2, SPOT-4, DubaiSat-1_

ALOS(AV2,PSR), FORMOSAT-2, QuickBird-2_

ALOS(AV2), FORMOSAT-2, SPOT-5_

ALOS(PSR), FORMOSAT-2, EO-1, SPOT-5, DEIMOS-1_

ALOS(AV2), FORMOSAT-2, KOMPSAT-2, WorldView-2, GeoEye-1, RESURS-DK

ALOS(AV2, PSR), FORMOSAT-2, IKONOS, WorldView-2, LANDSAT-5, RESURS-DK

Tab. 2 List of emergency observations.

lief teams to reach the destination. Since the devastation

Fig. 1 Tsunami inundated area.

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change

International Charter for Earthquake in Japan

Fig. 2 Sendai airport area.

Sendai Airport from IKONOS Panchromatic image ( USGS)

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change

tinel Asia System within the domestic legislation of each DAN

Fig. 3 Coverage of emergency observation.

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change, p. 11-14

The contribution of space based observations

Current missions and methods

tion of the images used, displacements up to several 10s of

High resolution DEMs

Monitoring volcanic eruptions and

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change

The contribution of space based observations to understanding and addressing geohazards

sphere using GPS tomography and airglow imaging (Makela et

lighted the utility of the information it is possible to extract

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change, p. 15-16

The International charter for disaster mitigation:

Remote sensing of earthquake effects following

*NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory, United States.

and dynamics places us in stronger position to understand future seismic risk.

Remote sensing, natural hazards and environmental change, p. 17-20

Understanding the fatal 2006 dike breaching

Supertyphoon Durian, packing maximum sustained winds

R. Eco, A.M.F. Lagnay, E. Paguican

pre - 30 November 2006 stream flow

post - 30 November 2006 lahar flow

ped structures at the lower slopes of Mayons edifice from

surmised that the dikes at the southern and eastern sectors of