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A Binomial Experiment:
P Y y
n!
p y q ny
y! (n - y)!
np
2
o npq
Testing Hypotheses
Specify the sampling (probability) distribution and the test statistic (Y). Example:
the binomial distribution describes the probability that a single sample of n trials
would result in (Y = y) successes (if assumptions of binomial are true).
Set alpha at a level determined by how great a risk of a Type I error (falsely
rejecting a true null) you are willing to take. Traditional values of alpha are .05
and .01.
Binomial.docx
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17.5 12.5
2
2.5
We compute
. Note that I reduced the value for the number of
successes from 18 to 17.5. This is called the "correction for continuity." The
reasoning behind it goes something like this: We are using a continuous
distribution to approximate a discrete probability. Accordingly, we should think of
'18' as being '17.5 to 18.5.' Since we want the probability of getting 18 or more
successes, we find the z-score for getting 17.5 or more -- that way we include all
of '18' in the obtained probability. If we wanted to estimate the probability of
getting 18 or fewer successes, we would use '18.5,' again, to inlcude all of '18' in
the obtained probability. On a practical note, the approximated probability will be
closer to the exact binomial probability if the we use the correction for continuity
than it would be if we did not use the correction.
z
We then use the normal curve table to get the probability from the z-score. For
our z-score of 2.00, the probability is .0228.
With matched pairs data we may simply compute, for each pair, whether the
difference score is positive or negative and then test the null hypothesis that in
the population 50% of the difference scores are positive.
For example, suppose we have pre and post blood pressure scores for each of
ten subjects given an experimental drug. Our null hypothesis is that the drug has
no effect on blood pressure.
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We test 11 subjects. For 9 subjects pressure is lower after taking the drug, for 1
it is higher and for 1 it is unchanged.
Our test statistic is the larger of n+ (the number of positive difference scores) and
n (the number of negative difference scores). Unless there are many difference
scores of zero, we usually discard data from subjects with difference scores of
zero (an alternative procedure would be to count zero difference scores as being
included with the smaller of n+ and n).
Following the usual procedure, our test statistic would be n+ = 9, with n = 10.
The exact two-tailed p value is 2P(Y 9 n = 10, p = .5) = .022, sufficiently low
to reject the null hypothesis at the customary .05 level of significance.
Our APA-style summary statement might read like this: An exact binomial sign
test indicated that the drug significantly lowered blood pressure, 9 of 10 patients
having post-treatment pressure lower than their pre-treatment pressure, p = .
022. Were we to use a normal approximation rather than an exact test, we
would include the value of z in our summary statement.
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