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BANK of ZAMBIA
JULY 2010
1.0
INTRODUCTION
This report reviews the Bank of Zambias implementation of monetary
and supervisory policies and their outcomes during the month of June
2010, as well as real and external sector developments. The report also
provides an inflation outlook for August 2010.
2.0
2.1
MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
The focus of monetary policy in June 2010 continued to be the
achievement of the end-year annual inflation target of 8.0%. To achieve
this, the Bank of Zambia relied mainly on Open Market Operations and
the auctioning of Government securities in order to maintain reserve
money within the programmed growth path. This was complimented by
prudent fiscal policy management. Consistent with this, overall inflation
in June was programmed at 7.7% under the Extended Credit Facility
arrangement, while the BoZ projection was 8.2%.
2.1.1
Inflation
During the month under review, the annual overall inflation rate
decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 7.8% (May 2010: 9.1%). This was
mainly on account of the fall in annual food inflation to 3.8% from the
6.5% recorded in May 2010. However, the annual non-food inflation rate
rose to 11.8% (May 2010: 11.6%). Of the total 7.8% annual inflation
outturn, food products accounted for 1.9 percentage points while nonfood products accounted for 5.9 percentage points. The annual overall
inflation outturn was 0.4 percentage points below the BoZ projection of
8.2% for the period.
Monthly food inflation declined to negative 1.6% (May 2010: negative
0.1%), due to the reduction in prices of various food items during the
crop marketing period. Lower prices were observed on maize grain,
breakfast and roller meal, rice, millet, sorghum, sweet potatoes,
1
Preliminary data for June 2010 shows that monthly growth in domestic
credit, comprehensively defined to include foreign currency loans, was
1
Interest Rates
Commercial Banks Interest Rates
Following the decline in inflation in June 2010, the ALR rose to 20.2%
(May 2010:19.1%) while the real WALBR rose to 13.2% (May
2010:12.2%). Similarly, the real ASR for amounts above K100,000.00
and the real 30-day deposit rate for amounts above K20 million improved
to close at negative 2.2 % (May 2010: negative 3.5%) and negative 3.1%
(May 2010: negative 4.4%).
Manufacturing
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rubber products (4.6%), and iron and steel and items thereof (2.5%)
explained this outturn.
Merchandise export earnings rose by 1.3% to US $495.4 million (May
2010: US $489.2 million). This followed an increase in metal exports,
which was moderated by the decline in non-traditional export earnings
during the month under review. Metal export earnings grew by 6.1% to
US $398.5 million (May 2010: US $375.5 million). The increase was
attributed to the rise in copper export earnings which outweighed the
decline in cobalt export earnings.
Copper export earnings rose by 7.8% to US $374.1 million (May 2010:
US $346.9 million), due to an increase in the export volumes by 14.4% to
60,455.55 metric tonnes (mt) (May 2010: 52,839.75 mt). The realised
price of copper, however, declined by 5.8% to US $6,187.71 per ton (US
$2.81 per pound) in June (May 2010: US $6,565.33 per ton (US $2.98
per pound)). The decline in the realised price reflected the slide in copper
prices on the international market during this period.
During the same period, cobalt export earnings fell by 14.7% to US $24.4
million (May 2010:US $28.9 million), following a decline in both the
export volumes and the realised price. Cobalt export volumes declined by
10.3% to 691.50 mt (May 2010: 771.33 mt). Similarly, the realised price
of cobalt fell by 5.8% to US $35,263.26 per ton (US $16.00 per pound)
(May 2010: US $37,415.26 per ton (US $16.97 per pound).
In the month under review, non-traditional export earnings declined by
14.8% to US $96.9 million (May 2010: US $113.7 million). This was
largely explained by a decline in earnings associated with the export of
cane sugar, burley tobacco, fresh flowers, cement & lime, fresh fruits and
vegetables, electricity, and gemstones. An increase however, was
recorded in the export of copper wire, electrical cables, gas and
petroleum oils, and wheat and insulin.
On a year-to-date basis, Zambia recorded a merchandise trade surplus of
US $632.5 million compared with a deficit of US $111.2 million recorded
during the same period in 2009. An increase in merchandise export
earnings, which outweighed the rise in the merchandise imports bill,
explained this outturn.
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The overall financial performance and condition of the NBFIs was rated
marginal during the month under review. On average, the microfinance
institutions and bureaux de change sub-sectors reported adequate capital,
fair asset quality and liquidity position while the earnings performance
was rated marginal. However, four leasing finance companies, one
building society and one credit and savings institution had regulatory
capital deficiencies.
DEVELOPMENTS
IN
PAYMENT SYSTEMS
BANKING,
CURRENCY
AND
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3.0
This forecast is based on the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model, depicting the exchange rate, money supply, fuel price
and maize price as the variables that have the key information on the inflationary process. In addition, past trend analysis
and judgment is an integral part of the forecast.
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4.0
4.1
Cheque Truncation
The Bank is concerned about the little progress being made on the
implementation of the Cheque Truncation project, which has taken rather
too long. The Bank wish to appeal to BAZ once more to look into this
matter and expedite the process.
4.2
4.3
4.4
Banks should also ensure that they sensitise their customers on how they
can protect themselves from falling prey to such fraud.
4.5
4.6
4.7
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