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National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences

School of Electrical Engineering

Spring 2015

Islamabad Campus

Serial No:

EE319:Probability
& Random Processes

Sessional I
Total Time: 1 Hour
Total Marks: 60

Tuesday, March17, 2015

Course Instructor:
________________

Engr. Aamer Munir

Signature of Invigilator

_____________________________________________ _____________________
Student NameRoll No

Section

Signature

OPEN BOOK
Allowed:Yellow local-bound book with student name on 1st page.
Not allowed: Notes or loose pages.
DO NOT OPEN THE QUESTION BOOK OR START UNTIL INSTRUCTED.
Instructions:
1. Attempt on question paper. Attempt all of them. Read the question carefully and
understand it before attempting it.
2. Direct Answers are not acceptable. Showing your rough work is very important.
3. No additional sheet will be provided for rough work.
4. Pay very close attention to the notation you use. Up to 20% marks can be deducted for
use of vague or wrong notation.
5. All questions carry equal marks. Sub parts marks are listed.
6. After asked to commence the exam, please verify that you have six(6) different
printed pages including this title page. There are total of three (3) questions.
7. Calculator sharing is strictly prohibited.
8. Use permanent ink pens only. Although any part done using soft pencil will be
marked but it cannot be claimed for rechecking.
9. The invigilator present is not supposed to answer any questions. No one may
come to your room for corrections and you are not supposed to request to call
anyone. Make assumptions wherever required and clearly mark them.

Marks
Obtained
Total
Marks

Q-1

Q-2

Q-3

Total

20

20

20

60

Vetted By: _____________________________Vetter Signature: _____________________


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National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences


School of Electrical Engineering

Spring 2015

Islamabad Campus

Question 1 [Marks - 20]:


1. [Marks 3]The probability that any of the R, op-amp or C fails is 0.01, 0.09 and 0.15,
respectively.

+
The circuit would be termed 'failed' when any of the 3 components fail. What is the
probability that the circuit fails?
Answer:
Assumption (important): each component fails independently.
Event = "circuit fails", event
= " R fails", event
= "op-amp fails",
= "C fails"
, Pr( ) = 0.01, Pr
=
= 0.09, Pr( ) = 0.15
=

= (1 0.01)(1 0.09)(1 0.15) = 0.7658


Pr( ) = 1 Pr( ) = 1 0.765765 = 0.2342
2. [Marks 4]We pick elements in the set {-1, 1, 3} completely randomly and take their square.
Let a random variable, X represent the squares. What is the support, RX of the RV? Plot the
Probability Mass Function (PMF) of X. Label the plot adequately. [Note: Support of a RV is
the set of values that the RV can take.]
Answer:
= {1,9}
Each element in the given set can be picked equally likely.

2
,
( )= 3
1
,
3

=1
=9

The process of squaring is deterministic. What is important is which elements of the set map to
each value in the support of X.
1 1 2
1
Pr({1,1}) = Pr({1}) + Pr({1}) = + = ,
Pr({3}) =
3 3 3
3

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National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences


School of Electrical Engineering

Spring 2015

Islamabad Campus

3. [Marks 5]All possible outcomes of an experiment are squares of the elements in the set
{ , , }. In the following cases write the value of the probability if it is well-defined,
otherwise write the reason (one word or one phrase):
1) Pr(9) =

9 is not a valid event. {9} is.

2) Pr({1} ) = Square of an event is not defined.


3) Pr({

({1,9})}) = Pr({1}) =

4) Pr(Pr({1,9})) = Pr (1), same as part 1.


5) Pr({Pr({1})}) = Pr

, invalid event.

4. [Marks 4]The sample space, S of a random experiment is shown. The outcomes of the
experiment are not equally likely. There are 3 kinds of outcomes -- those marked with a ( * )
have a probability to occur, the ones marked as ( + ) have a probability and the ones
marked with a ( $ ) have probability . There are three events, A (marked as a circle),
B(marked as a dotted rectangle) and C (marked as a triangle). Find:

Pr( ) = 9 + 6 + 6 = 1
( )= + +
+ +
( | )=
2 + +
Knowing that B has occurred, are A and C independent?
If Pr( | ) = Pr( | ) . Pr ( | ) then we can say they are independent. Let us find out.
Pr( | ) = Pr(| ) = 0
Pr ( )
Pr( | ) =
Pr (B) = 0
Pr( | ) =

3 +3 +2 0

Thus A and C are independent conditioned on B.

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National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences


School of Electrical Engineering

Spring 2015

Islamabad Campus

5. [Marks 4]A tree for medical test kit diagnosis for some disease is as shown below. The
event S represents the case when a patient is sick (i.e., suffering from that disease). T+ is
the event that the medical test kit tested positive for the disease. T-when the kit tested
negative for the disease. Some probability values are listed on the tree. Find the 5 missing
probability values and put them in the rectangular boxes.The values listed on right are leaf
probabilities.

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National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences


School of Electrical Engineering

Spring 2015

Islamabad Campus

Question 2 [Marks - 10+10 = 20]:


A student buys 1000 integrated circuits (ICs) from supplier A, 2000 ICs from supplier B, and
3000 ICs from supplier C. He tested the ICs and found that the conditional probability of an IC
being defective depends on the supplier from whom it was bought. Specifically, given that an IC
came from supplier A, the probability that it is defective is 0.05; given that an IC came from
supplier B, the probability that it is defective is 0.10; and given that an IC came from supplier C,
the probability that it is defective is 0.07. If the ICs from the three suppliers are mixed together
and one is selected at random,
a) What is the probability that it is defective?
b) If it turns out to be defective, what is the probability that it came from supplier A?
Answer:
The probability that the one picked out of 6000 ICs came from supplier A, B or C is depicted by
the tree below. For each IC, there are two possibilities, (defective) and (not defective).
2000 2
3000 3
1000 1
= = 0.1667,
Pr(B) =
= = 0.3333,
Pr(C) =
= = 0.5
Pr(A) =
6000 6
6000 6
6000 6
Pr( | ) = 0.05, Pr( | ) = 0.10,
Pr( | ) = 0.07

a)
Pr(D) = Pr(A D) + Pr(B D) + Pr(C D) = 0.1667 0.05 + 0.333 .10 + 0.5 0.07
Pr(D) = 0.07666
b)
Pr( | ) =

Pr( | ) . Pr ( ) 0.05 0.1667


=
= 0.1087
Pr (D)
0.07666

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National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences


School of Electrical Engineering

Spring 2015

Islamabad Campus

Question 3 [Marks - 20]:


Martin is one of the 10 friends who went to eat pizza. They ordered two pizzas of the same kind
and size, each had6 slices. Everyone got at least one slice. What is the probability Martin got at
least two slices?
Answer:
Since pizzas are of same kind and size, their slices are indistinguishable. Total slices = 12
Experiment: Divide 12 slices among 10 friends, such that everyone gets at least 1.
Thus in giving 10 slices to 10 friends, we do not have choice. The remaining 2 slices, however,
can be divided in any way to the 10 friends.
One friend (e.g. Martin) can have both, therefore, this is with replacement (WR) and since slices
are indistinguishable, their order does not matter (UO).
11.10
10 1 + 2
11
=
=
= 55
2
2
2

| |=
Event
Event
Event

= "Martin gets at least two slices" = "Martin gets at least one more besides the min 1"
= "Martin gets one more", meaning other 1 slice will be divided among 9, | | = 1.9 = 9
= "Martin gets two more", meaning all additional goes to him, | | = 1
=

| |=|
( )=

|+|

| = 1 + 9 = 10

10
= 0.18182
55

Alternate:
= "Martin gets none besides the min 1", 2 slices get distributed to other 9
|

|=

91+2
10
10.9
=
=
= 45
2
2
2

| | = | ||

| = 55 45 = 10

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