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What Drives Company Stock Price Out Performance? What Fundamental Stock Investment Strategies Have Been
Working Consistently? What Ranked Metrics Have Historically Signalled Stock Prices Will Outperform?
Our Paid Monthly Research Service on the Australian (ASX) and Hong Kong Markets (HSE) Answers all these Questions
in a Digestible way for all levels of Investors: www.lvxresearch.com
We also Provide Bespoke Research Services for Brokerage Firms and Institutional Investors on Countries and Industry
Segments.
January 2015 Edge Australia Report is Enclosed. Learn More on our Website: www.lvxresearch.com
Analysis above and throughout the document do not include transaction costs or dividends. Returns are not actual they are based on mathematical calculations of the historical performance of applying different ranked investment strategies/metrics for stock selection. Each strategy
has the top five ranked shares re-weighted monthly or quarterly depending on the strategy. There are no guarantees that the strategies shown in this document will generate similar performance to what they have generated in the past. We just provide the facts for strategies that are
working historically over the medium term. Our analysis does not include transaction costs which could be substantial or the effect of dividends or taxes. Please note with how our analysis is conducted using the current indices, longer term performance statistics can be skewed by
survivorship bias and may enter the benchmark because of high share price momentum for example. We have not adjusted historically for that factor so shorter term factors are more accurate. We provide historical market and financial information for institutional, professional
investors and advisors. We do not provide general advice or specific advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This publication is general in nature and does not take your personal situation into consideration. You should seek financial advice specific to your
situation before making any financial decision. Please see our disclaimer on the main website www.lvxresearch.com for more information. AFSL 338118.
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Relative industry Trends: From a macro perspective we have developed a relative trend following methodology to focus on what industries are trending form a relative perspective
Characteristics of Top Performers: We analyse the top 20 performing shares every six months and see which characteristics they shared six months previously over a medium term
time horizon i.e. where they ranked in certain multiples and metrics; thus determining what has been the most influential metrics for historical performance.
Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
As you can see over the next few pages the top value strategies on average did a little better over both time periods compared to the top growth strategies; which you can see
visually comparing the blue bars (growth) to the green bars (value) over the two time periods. Each of the fundamental/market strategies consist of five companies from the ASX
100 typically reweighted quarterly/monthly ranked by the highest or lowest metric. e.g for Lowest Return on Assets - every quarter the five stock portfolio consists of the
companies with the lowest return on assets from the ASX 100 at that date, and the portfolio is held for a quarter then rebalanced again etc. for the last two years producing
this return result.
Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
As you can see within growth strategies over the two time periods following the highest 2Q momentum was the most lucrative over both periods (highest ranked for the
current quarter at as 31/12/2104 QAN,CTX,REC,ORA,AWC) . Following the highest percentage EPS revisions for the forward year from the trailing quarter was a consistent and
high returning strategy each year re weighting quarterly (highest ranked for the current quarter as at 31/3/2014 QAN, CSR, EGP, ALL, AWC). See the tables later for the full list
of companies that are highest ranked by strategy for the current quarter.
Edge Australia January 2015 - Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
As you can see within value strategies over the two time periods following the lowest return on assets ( highest ranked for the current quarter as at 31/12/2014 NCM, QAN, TPI,
BPT, STO) and lowest 20Q momentum were the most lucrative (highest ranked for the current quarter as at 31/12/2014 NCM,WOR,BSL,MTS,QBE).
Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary- What Strategies Are Working Best?
Shown below is the data behind the top performing strategies and the current portfolios for each strategy over the last two years and one year respectively.
Top Performing Strategies over the medium term - Last 2 Years - ASX 100 - Top Ranked Five Shares
Monthly Strategies
Seasonality
Highest MomentumVol. Adj.
Quarterly Strategies
Fundamentals/Market Based
Bank Reweighting Strategy
Lowest 20Q Momentum
Highest 2Q Momentum
Lowest Return on Assets
Highest EPS Est. Chg.CY Next Yr Q Grwth
Lowest Price to Book
Highest 4Q Momentum
Highest 20Q Momentum
Lowest EV/Invested Capital
Lowest 5yr Grwth Op Inc CAGR
Highest Return on Assets
ASX 100
ST Strategy
Dividend Exploitation
31/12/2014
L12M
L12-24M
L24M
Current Portfolio 31/12/2014
17.0%
41.0%
65.0% REA
DUE
FMG
12.2%
61.3%
81.0% ORA
CTX
QAN
8.4%
43.6%
30.9%
51.7%
52.0%
40.1%
12.6%
8.6%
46.0%
15.4%
15.4%
53.7%
59.8%
52.6%
27.1%
25.8%
31.2%
56.8%
58.6%
15.1%
42.5%
41.6%
66.6%
129.4%
99.7%
92.8%
91.3%
83.8%
76.6%
72.2%
68.0%
64.4%
63.4%
1.5%
42.5%
18.1%
CBA
WBC
NCM
QAN
NCM
QAN
BSL
QAN
RHC
BPT
WFD
REA
AGL
NAB
WOR
CTX
QAN
CSR
BPT
REC
REA
BSL
CPU
CAR
BSL
REC
TPI
EGP
TPI
CTX
TPM
TPI
TPI
SCG
HGG
AMC
IPL
REC
Investing Style
Industry Rotation
Growth
MTS
ORA
BPT
ALL
STO
ORA
CTX
FMG
TAH
CSL
QBE
AWC
STO
AWC
FMG
AWC
FDC
STO
GNC
COH
Contrarian
Value
Growth
Value
Growth
Value
Growth
Growth
Value
Value
Growth
Opportunistic
Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary- What Strategies Are Working Best?
Top Performing Strategies over the medium term - Last 1 Year - ASX 100- Top Ranked Five Shares
Monthly Strategies
Seasonality
Highest Momentum Vol. Adj.
Quarterly Strategies
Fundamentals/Market Based
Bank Reweighting Strategy
Highest EPS Est. Chg.CY Next Yr Q Grwth
Lowest Return on Assets
Lowest EV/Invested Capital
Lowest 20Q Momentum
Lowest Price to Book
Lowest EBIT Margin
Highest 2Q Momentum
Highest PE Est. Next CY
Highest EV/L12M EBIT
Highest EV/L12MFree Cashflow
ASX 100
ST Strategy
Dividend Exploitation
31/12/2014
L12M
L12-24M L24M
Current Portfolio 31/12/2014
17.0%
41.0%
65.0% REA
DUE
FMG
12.2%
61.3%
81.0% ORA
CTX
QAN
8.4%
52.0%
51.7%
46.0%
43.6%
40.1%
34.2%
30.9%
23.8%
23.2%
23.2%
53.7%
25.8%
27.1%
15.1%
59.8%
31.2%
19.5%
52.6%
11.7%
14.3%
16.3%
66.6%
91.3%
92.8%
68.0%
129.4%
83.8%
60.4%
99.7%
38.4%
40.8%
43.2%
1.5%
14.3%
18.1%
CBA
WBC
QAN
NCM
BPT
NCM
BSL
QAN
QAN
TCL
JHX
AGL
NAB
CSR
QAN
BSL
WOR
BPT
BSL
CTX
SYD
SGM
AIO
AGL
EGP
TPI
TPI
BSL
TPI
CIM
REC
DUE
TCL
SGP
HGG
AMC
IPL
REC
Investing Style
Industry Rotation
Growth
ALL
BPT
FMG
MTS
STO
SGM
ORA
SYD
TPI
QAN
AWC
STO
STO
QBE
FMG
CTX
AWC
COH
WFD
ORG
Contrarian
Value
Growth
Value
Value
Value
Value
Growth
Value
Value
Growth
Opportunistic
Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary- What Strategies Are Working Best?
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Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
Below are the recent stock charts by strategy for the companies that are in the top five strategies over one and two years.
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Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
Below are the recent stock charts by strategy for the companies that are in the top strategies.
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Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary- What Strategies Are Working Best?
Below are the recent stock charts by strategy for the companies that are in the top strategies.
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Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
Below are the recent stock charts by strategy for the companies that are in the top strategies.
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Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
Below are the key valuation multiples as at 31/12/2014 for all the companies that currently appear this month in the top five strategies over one and two years
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Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary- What Strategies Are Working Best?
Below are the key valuation multiples as at 31/12/2014 for all the companies that currently appear this month in the top strategies over two years
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Edge Australia January 2015 Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
Summary of Best Performing Strategies
1)Price Momentum and Contrarian strategies were the best performing strategy over the last two years. Buying the five companies with the worst five year share price
performance and re weighting each quarter would have generated +129.4% over the last two years compared to the ASX 100 performance of +18.1 % ignoring dividends and
transaction costs for both. Buying the top five momentum stocks ( ie those with the largest price increases) in the ASX 100 over the last two quarters, four quarters and five
years respectively would have generated +99.7%, +76.6% and 72.2% over two years . Adjusting momentum searching for less volatile stocks and as such smooth upwards
trends for larger cap stocks has been a good approach with large cap stocks adjusting monthly this approach has generated +81.0% over the last two years.
Following these methodologies the top ranked five stocks this month would be
Lowest 20Q Momentum Q adj: Newcrest (NCM), Worley Parsons (WOR), Bluescope (BSL), Metcash ( MET), QBE Insurance (QBE).
Highest 20Q Momentum Q adj,: Ramsay Health Care (RHC), REA Group (REA), TPG Group (TPM), Caltex (CTX), Federated (FDC)
Highest 2Q Momentum Q adj: Qantas (QAN), Caltex (CTX), Recall (REC), Orora (ORA), Alumina (AWC)
Highest 4Q Momentum Q adj: Qantas (QAN), Recall (REC), Caltex (CTX), Orora (ORA), Alumina (AWC)
Highest 6Mth Momentum Mthly adj.: Orora (ORA), Caltex (CTX), Qantas (QAN), Amcor(AMC), Recall (REC).
2) Following the highest earnings upgrades a year forward adjusting quarterly has been a solid strategy to follow. Buying the five companies with the highest percentage
earnings upgrades during a quarter for the following year would have generated +91.3% over the last two years compared to the ASX 100 performance of +18.1 % Following
this methodology the top five stocks this quarter would be Qantas (QAN), CSR (CSR), Echo (EGP), Aristocrat Leisure(ALL), Alumina (AWC).
3) Contrarian Strategies - Investing in cyclicals and turn around/recovery potential has been lucrative over the past two years . The five companies in the ASX 100 with the
lowest return on assets, lowest price to book, lowest enterprise value / invested capital , lowest 5yr growth in operating income have generated respectively +92.8%, +83.8% ,
+68.0%, +64.4%.
Following this methodology the top five stocks this quarter would be :
Lowest return on assets: Newcrest (NCM), Qantas (QAN), Transpacific (TPI), Beach Petroleum (BPT), Santos (STO).
Lowest price to book: Bluescope(BSL), Beach Petroleum( BPT), Transpacific (TPI),Santos (STO), Fortescue (FMG)
Lowest enterprise value to invested capital: Beach Petroleum ( BPT), Bluescope (BSL), Transpacific (TPI), Fortescue (FMG), Santos (STO)
Lowest 5 year growth in operating income: Westfield (WFD), Computershare ( CPU), Transpacific ( TPI), Tabcorp (TAH), Graincorp (GNC)
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Edge Australia January 2015 - Executive Summary What Strategies Are Working Best?
4) Investing in the Top five companies in the ASX 100 with the highest return on assets ( L12m Net Income/Total Assets) would have generated +63.4% over the last two years
compared to the ASX 100 performance of +18.1 %Following this methodology the top five stocks this quarter would be: REA Group (REA), Car Sales (CRZ), Scentre (SCG),
CSL(CSL), Cochlear (COH). These four fundamental strategies and the companies that are currently represented as you can see are a mix of turnarounds from an industry &
company perspective, growth and recovery that have been performing well.
5) ASX 100 Seasonality goes into the anomaly bucket . Industries in particular exhibit seasonal performance effects that are consistent from year to year for a variety of reasons.
The reasons could be timing of earnings releases, major macro data, end of quarter or year end fund manager adjustments, and holiday activity periods for example; that all
affect liquidity and money flows and manager industry tilts. Looking forward, the next three months in the market are on average over the last ten years; the strongest three
months in the year. Buying the five top performers in a month historically over the last ten years, adjusting the portfolio monthly generated +65% over the last two years and
+17.0% over the last twelve months. Following this methodology the top five stocks this month would be REA Group (REA), Duet (DUE) Fortescue (FMG), Henderson (HGG) and
Incitec Pivot ( IPL).
6) Top Australian Bank Re weighting Strategy An extremely simple yet effective long term strategy involves re weighting by buying the [methodology for subscribers only] has
been a proven strategy for the last 10 years. Following this methodology the top two stocks this quarter would be Westpac WBC and National Australia Bank (NAB),this quarter.
L24M this strategy has delivered +66.6% over the last twelve months excluding dividends compared to the bank index of +39.2%. This strategy has outperformed in nine of the
last ten years.
7) Short Term Dividend exploitation in certain industries and stocks is a lucrative short term opportunity. January is a bad month for dividends but in February the best stocks are
AGL (avg +3.97%) and CBA (avg +2.83%) over the last five years buying a few days pre ex date and selling on the ex dividend date.
8) The overall seasonal patterns of when the market historically performs well and which industries do well in certain months has also been a consistent driver of excess returns.
As has the intra month timing effect for when to buy and sell historically or indeed increase of decrease exposures. All the back up figures are in our appendices.
9) Fundamental Characteristics of Top performers: We analyse the top 20 performers in the ASX 100 each half and the operating and financial multiples at the time, six months
previously, to see which metrics the companies shared. Over a three year period the four metrics that were most present consistently (29%+ of the time the outperforming
companies were ranked in the top 20 of the relevant metric) The most important metrics historically are the highest Price to Book, lowest Enterprise Value/Free Cash Flow,
highest return on assets, highest 360 day trailing Volatility and highest Enterprise Value to Invested Capital.
The highlighted strategies have worked well over the last 12 and 24 months to generate above average rates of return but there are no guarantees that past performance will be
repeated in the future. We just provide the facts for strategies that have worked historically over the medium term.
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Top 10 Fundamental/Market Strategies over the medium term - Last 2 Years ASX 100
Quarterly Strategies
Lowest 20Q Momentum
Highest 2Q Momentum
Lowest Return on Assets
Highest EPS Est. Chg.CY Next Yr Q Grwth
Lowest Price to Book
Highest 4Q Momentum
Highest 20Q Momentum
Lowest EV/Invested Capital
Lowest 5yr Grwth Op Inc CAGR
Highest Return on Assets
31/12/2014
LQ
L12M
17.7%
25.6%
21.6%
25.2%
9.1%
10.8%
0.1%
13.7%
1.5%
9.2%
43.6%
30.9%
51.7%
52.0%
40.1%
12.6%
8.6%
46.0%
15.4%
15.4%
L12-24M L24M
59.8% 129.4%
52.6%
99.7%
27.1%
92.8%
25.8%
91.3%
31.2%
83.8%
56.8%
76.6%
58.6%
72.2%
15.1%
68.0%
42.5%
64.4%
41.6%
63.4%
MTS
ORA
BPT
ALL
STO
ORA
CTX
FMG
TAH
CSL
QBE
AWC
STO
AWC
FMG
AWC
FDC
STO
GNC
COH
Investing Style
Value
Growth
Value
Growth
Value
Growth
Growth
Value
Value
Growth
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Edge Australia January 2015 Fundamental Characteristics of Top 20 Performing ASX 200 Companies
What is the Strategy? We analyse the top 20 performers each trailing six months measured monthly in the ASX 100 over the previous trailing three years and determine what ranking within operating and
fundamental metrics they shared six months previously. We then calculate the percentage of the time the top performing 20 companies in the period were also ranked in the top 20 of that metric. The highest
number shows what financial and operating multiples are most important in driving subsequent performance over the last three years over a broad portfolio.
The most important metrics historically are the highest Price to Book, lowest Enterprise Value/Free Cash Flow, highest return on assets, highest 360 day trailing Volatility and highest Enterprise Value to
Invested Capital.
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12/06/2015
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