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Problem:
Weld Defects between
Mylar Motor and
Attachment Bracket
(Ultrasonic
Weld Operation)
2
Topics
I.
II.
Yield
Ordinal Attribute natural order is implied between categories but the magnitude
of difference is unknown
Other Examples: Shift (e.g., Day or Night); Plant; Department; Model Type
A.
B.
Data patterns in time order (i.e., to evaluate process stability over time)
Run Chart (also known as trend chart or time series plot)
Statistical Process Control (SPC) Chart (refer to SPC lecture)
C.
Sample Size, N
Dispersion (Variation) Statistics: St Dev, Variance, Range (with Min and Max)
A. Histogram Example
Typical Y-Axis: frequency or relative frequency
Histogram of ShearForce
Minitab Commands:
>> Graph
>> Histogram
>> Select Variable
ShearForce
16
14
Frequency
12
10
8
6
Note: Requirement is
Shear Force >= 13
(Lower Specification
Limit (LSL) = 13)
4
2
0
12
ShearForce
18
24
Skewed Right
Normal
Histogram of ShearForce
16
14
Frequency
12
10
8
6
2
0
12
ShearForce
18
Bi-Modal
Skewed Left
24
Null Hypothesis (Ho): Data are Normal; Ha ~ Data are not Normal
Test Conclusion: p-value is ~0.000 (note: if p-value < alpha, reject Ho)
Mean
StDev
N
AD
P-Value
99
95
Percent
90
Minitab Commands:
>> Stat
>> Basic Statistics
>> Normality Test
Select Variable
ShearForce
17.67
6.841
60
2.238
<0.005
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Note: Selected
Anderson Darling Test
5
1
0.1
10
20
ShearForce
30
40
*
*
Upper Limit:
Q3 + 1.5 fs
Q3 75th Percentile
Median - 50th Percentile
Q1 25th Percentile
fs = Q3 Q1
*
Q1 - 1.5 fs
Q3 + 1.5 fs
Lower Limit:
Q1 1.5 fs
> mild
outlier
< mild
outlier
Minitab Commands:
>> Graph
>> Boxplot
>> Select Variable
Y = ShearForce
30
25
ShearForce
20
15
10
11
Histogram of ShearForce
Boxplot of ShearForce
16
30
14
25
20
10
ShearForce
Frequency
12
8
6
10
4
2
0
15
5
0
12
ShearForce
18
24
0
12
30
Minitab Commands:
>> Graph
>> Boxplot
>> Select Graph Variable
Y = ShearForce
X = Batch
25
ShearForce
20
15
10
5
0
P1
P2
Production Batch*
P3
15
Minitab Commands:
>> Graph
>> Time Series Plot
>> Select Graph Variable
Y = ShearForce
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
12
18
24
30
Index
36
42
48
54
60
16
Questions:
17
Stratification Analysis of
Descriptive Statistics
P1
22.450 26.300
P2
2.60
18.05
26.90
P3
1.40
12.30
24.70
18
2.
Note: DPM also known as PPM for parts per million defective
3.
4.
5.
Process Capability,
Reliability,
Specifications
10
Example:
22
11
Fraction Defective =
Total # Defective
Total #Units Inspected
DPM =
23
12
DPMO =
Total # Defects
x 1 Million
Total Opportunities (TOP)
Where:
Total # Defects = Total # defects across all units
25
DPMO Example
Defects
22
19
18
59
13
Concern
Guests
447
1000
1000
1000
1000
Total
Defects
(Not
Satisfied)
111
82
34
96
58
Opportunities
447
1000
1000
1000
1000
381
4447
# defects
TOP
27
Hotel
Poor Meal
Service*
A
B
C
111
120
n/a
Poor
House
Keeping
82
89
75
Problems with
Reservations
34
37
28
DPMO = 1054/13786 * 1M
Long
Check
In
96
102
90
Long
Check
Out
58
62
70
TOTAL
OVERALL DPMO
Total
Defects
381
410
263
1054
TOP
4447
5114
4225
13786
76,454
28
14
Feature
A
# Defects
3
# Opportunities
200,000
B
C
D
E
0
0
0
0
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
Total Defects: 3
DPM0
15
Combined
DPMO
=3
(3 / 1M)
30
15
Specifications:
Ok, if shear force
>= 13
To compute DPM, need
to convert each
observed measurement
to a binary output
(0-within specification,
1= outside specification
or a defect)
Note: Observed DPM
also may be obtained
using Minitab with
Process Capability
Summary Analysis Tool
32
16
Normal
Example:
bilateral
tolerance
DEFECT
LOWER
SPECIFICATION
DEFECT
Upper
SPECIFICATION
33
Suppose we
assume Normality
Version 14
34
17
Observed DPM:
316,667
LSL
Within
Overall
Process Data
LSL
13
Target
*
USL
*
Sample Mean
17.67
Sample N
60
StDev (Within) 4.56185
StDev (O v erall) 6.86963
0
O bserv ed Performance
PPM < LSL 316666.67
PPM > USL
*
PPM Total
316666.67
Exp.
PPM
PPM
PPM
12
Within Performance
< LSL 152986.54
> USL
*
Total
152986.54
18
24
30
*
0.23
*
0.23
*
Expected (Predicted)
DPM: 248,314
Does Normality
Assumption Matter
in this example?
35
Or, we can predict the DPM (Expected DPM) by fitting sample data to
a distribution and then determining the probability of a defect x 1M.
If data do not reasonably fit a distribution and large sample size is available
(> 200), use observed DPM.
18
Summary
Run Chart (or SPC Chart) to show any time series trends
Summary Statistics (if continuous data)
N, mean, median, standard deviation, variance, min, max, range, skew
Estimate of Current State in terms of: Yield, DPM, or DPMO
Common
Distribution
Options:
Weibull (best result)
Exponential
Lognormal
Normal
Others available
38
19
Percent
50
10
90
50
10
1
based on Least
Squares Estimation
99
90
highest correlation
coefficient
C orrelation C oefficient
Weibull
0.948
Lognormal
0.865
Exponentia
*
Normal
0.954
Lognormal
1.0E+02
10
ShearForce
0.1
100
10
ShearForce
Exponential
100
Normal
1.0E+02
1.0E+02
99
90
50
Percent
based on max
likelihood
estimation
Percent
Percent
10
90
50
10
1
0.1
1.0
10.0
ShearForce
100.0
0.1
20
ShearForce
40
39
Note: topic
covered in process
capability analysis
module
Select Desired
Distribution
40
20