10 Conclusions

This report has documented the findings of the 2007 Household Budget Survey for a number
of important indicators of the welfare of the population. It has reported on trends since
1991/92, with a focus on changes observed since 2000/01, the most recent previous
Household Budget Survey. On the whole, the three surveys utilised similar questionnaires and
data collection methods. The data was analysed so as to maximise the comparability of the
results across the three surveys. This should help to give the most reliable picture of trends in
the population. Nevertheless, there are some issues of comparability that should be borne in
mind. The 2007 HBS used a more recent sample frame and finds a larger urban fraction in the
population. There were also some small changes to certain parts of the questionnaires. It
should also be remembered that each survey provides a ‘snapshot’ at the time it was
undertaken and may to some extent reflect particular conditions then.

The 2007 survey showed a continuation in many of the trends in household demographic
composition that were seen during the 1990s. Average household size has continued to
decline, the population has aged slightly, and the share of households headed by women has
increased. These women are most likely to be widowed, divorced or separated.

There has been an increase in the use of modern materials for housing since 2000/01; in
most cases, this is seen in both rural and urban areas. However, there has been only a small
increase in the coverage of the electricity grid, driven largely by urbanisation. Households are
also less likely to use piped water and other protected sources than they were, even in
comparison with the 2002 Census. This has particularly affected urban areas. Many rural
households are burdened by long distances to collect drinking water. The ownership of many
consumer goods has continued to increase in both urban and rural areas. Households use
charcoal more for cooking than they did in 2000/01; in Dar es Salaam there has been a large
reduction in the use of kerosene.

In education, the 2007 survey shows a dramatic increase in the proportion of primary school
age children who attend school – an overall increase of 25 percentage points. This has
benefited all households, including rural areas and the poor. Children are also more likely
than they were to be in the correct class for their age. Secondary school attendance has
increased substantially in both rural and urban areas, although attendance in rural areas
remains low. As seen in the previous survey, girls enter school earlier but tend also to leave
earlier. They are now at least as likely as boys to be in primary school. The level of education
of adults has improved only slightly since 2000/01 and patterns of disadvantage remain the
same. This measure would be expected to change only slowly, but the recent improvements in
school attendance should gradually feed through into the adult population.

There was less change in the health sector. Similar proportions to the 2000/01 survey
reported illness in the previous four weeks and reported consulting a health provider when ill.
However, there was an increase in the proportion who used a government health service and a
small decline in the extent of dissatisfaction with those services. Government services are
used more by the poor and primary-level facilities are particularly important to them.

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The 2007 HBS collected more information on employment and economic activities than the
previous surveys. Some 87 percent of the population over 15 is employed, and formal
unemployment is less than two percent. The economy continues to diversify. Agriculture and
fisheries remains the largest industry of employment, although its importance has reduced
since 2000/01, continuing a trend seen during the 1990s. The ownership of land and grazing
animals has also declined. There has been an increase in the proportion employed, in self-
employment and in the proportion of households reporting having a business. There has been
a modest increase in the use of banking and saving facilities since 2000/01, though coverage
remains low overall.

Since 1991/92, there has been a decline in the distances to some important services for the
population as a whole – including markets, shops and public transport. There have also been
some improvements since 2000/01, most strikingly for secondary schools, but also for
markets and public transport. The distance to primary schools and hospitals appears to have
increased since 2000/01, however. This seems difficult to reconcile with improvements for
the other facilities and it is difficult to know how accurately distances are reported. Poor
households still tend to be further from these services.

Consumption per capita has increased modestly in the population as a whole. However, this
seems to have been driven by the urbanisation and gains in rural areas, as it has stagnated or
declined in urban areas. The proportion of expenditure spent on food has declined, which
would be expected if real incomes have risen, although increases in non-food prices might
also have contributed to this. Inequality overall has remained unchanged since 2000/01
overall, when looking at the restricted consumption aggregate that is used in the poverty
analysis. It has increased since 1991/92. There has been a small decline in income poverty of
about 2 percentage points since 2000/01, although this is not large enough to be statistically
significant at the 5 percent level. The decline between 1991/92 and 2007 is larger and
statistically significant. Poverty remains largely rural but there has been an increase in the
proportion of the poor found in urban areas.

The 2007 survey found many of the same relationships between poverty and other
household characteristics found previously. Households with a large number of members or
dependents, with an economically inactive head or who depend on agricultural sources of
income are more likely to be poor. Poverty levels are strongly related to the education of the
household head.

Reported household income has increased more in real terms, if compared with the same
price deflator as used for the consumption analysis. There has been a reduction in the
importance of agricultural income, consistent with findings on employment. Differentials in
earnings by education seem to have increased, while gender differentials appear to have
decreased slightly.

Overall, an appreciable number of welfare measures have improved since 2000/01. The
expansion of schooling stands out as a major accomplishment. Housing materials and the
ownership of assets have improved, and reported income has increased. There appear to have
been quite modest improvements in household consumption and poverty, however.