Professional Documents
Culture Documents
AGENDA
3/22/2010
AGENDA
3/22/2010
The economic outlook remains patchy, governmental debt comes into the spotlight
The underlying reasons of the financial crisis, excess liquidity and a loose regulatory
framework, have only partly been tackled; cheap liquidity is still provided by central banks
and governments
In the mid run, central banks will have to take liquidity out of the markets in order to
counteract upcoming inflationary trends
In the mid run, increased government debt has to be repaid, again decreasing liquidity
Currently, financial markets take again the same medicine that made them ill
3/22/2010
1. The recovery of the stock markets is driven by yield-searching liquidity, and it is not fully
reflecting economic reality. Higher company valuations are partly based on higher
earnings, but they are mainly the result of cost cuttings and not of a demand- and salesdriven growth ("zero-job growth").
2. The worst of the crisis seems to be over, but the effects of upcoming inflationary
pressures, governmental debt burdens and the resulting liquidity reductions and austerity
measures are currently not priced in. In general, the road to recovery will be long, slow and
patchy.
3. Economic recovery will occur faster in developing economies, especially in countries that
have healthy budgets and balances of payments, and that are rich in commodities. USA will
follow, Western Europe will be at the end of the train.
4. Companies and governments are using the current situation to borrow longterm for cheap.
On the other hand, these additional funds available will lead to an increased pressure for
profitable investments and, among others, increased M&A activities.
5. The current crisis marks the beginning of the end of the dominating economic position of
the Western World, and of the outstanding role of the US-$ as the global reserve currency.
3/22/2010
Sources: Turkstat, CBT, Treasury, Ministry of Finance, ING Bank , ING Global Forecasts
3/22/2010
AGENDA
3/22/2010
10
A ZERO-BASE APPROACH
11
A ZERO-BASE APPROACH
Bank loans
expensive
and difficult
to obtain
Strong price
pressure ,
especially
from Asian
countries
Change of
regional
demand
patterns
(US, Europe
vs. Asia)
Strategic
Challenges
Significant
Overcapacities in the
sector
3/22/2010
Sector
remains
undercapitalized,
growth
difficult
Pressure on
informal
parts of the
sector will
increase
Sales will
remain
suppressed
for some
time
12
A ZERO-BASE APPROACH
Phase 1: Incremental strategy changes gradually moving away from environmental changes
(e.g. victim of own success)
Phase 2: Strategic drift becomes apparent, or environmental change increases no clear
strategy direction, fluxx
Phase 3: Transformational change to adopt to new environment but late and costly
13
A ZERO-BASE APPROACH
14
A ZERO-BASE APPROACH
Phase 1:
Strategic Analysis
Phase 2:
Strategic Choice
Phase 3:
Strategy
Implementation
Organizational structure
Resource allocation
Resource control
Management of strategic change
3/22/2010
15
AGENDA
3/22/2010
16
BIM / K.Cekmece-3
ChampionSA / Sisli
1.000
0
Migros
Carrefour Exp
ChampionSA
Market
15.01.07
16.01.07
17.01.07
18.01.07
19.01.07
20.01.07
2.603
2.310
2.209
2.105
2.597
3.571
4.127
2.482
2.470
2.448
2.219
3.000
Quarter
09:00-09:14
09:15-09:29
09:30-09:44
09:45-09:59
10:00-10:14
10:15-10:29
10:30-10:44
10:45-10:59
11:00-11:14
11:15-11:29
11:30-11:44
11:45-11:59
12:00-12:14
12:15-12:29
12:30-12:44
12:45-12:59
13:00-13:14
13:15-13:29
13:30-13:44
13:45-13:59
14:00-14:14
14:15-14:29
Bim
14:30-14:44
14:45-14:59
15:00-15:14
15:15-15:29
21.01.07
2.098
7.219
3.987
4.000
4.680
6.029
5.000
5.800
5.497
6.208
5.707
MM Migros / 6.000
Aksaray
5.873
Number of Visitors
BIM / K.Cekmece-2
6.011
7.000
5.844
8.000
7.628
7.563
9.000
2.050
M Migros / Erenkoy
8.854
2.501
BIM / K.Cekmece-1
Aks.
2,5
2,6
3,1
3,1
3,6
4,1
4,6
4,0
4,8
4,8
4,7
6,5
6,4
8,6
6,6
6,9
7,4
6,8
6,5
7,1
9,8
8,4
9,2
8,2
8,5
6,6
Mer.
2,2
2,6
3,0
3,6
4,0
3,5
3,1
4,2
3,9
2,9
4,3
5,3
5,9
6,0
6,5
7,1
5,3
6,3
6,3
6,3
7,0
6,0
6,5
5,0
6,6
6,8
Carrefour Exp
Mal.
Umr.
3,7
1,9
4,5
1,8
4,6
1,9
6,0
1,7
6,5
1,3
7,5
1,4
6,8
1,8
8,1
1,6
9,1
2,1
8,8
2,1
9,8
2,8
9,5
2,9
11,3
3,2
13,7
2,8
13,4
2,4
14,5
4,1
14,1
4,4
15,1
4,2
15,2
4,6
13,3
3,8
13,6
3,9
11,6
3,7
13,8
3,7
14,2
3,6
12,2
4,0
15,4
4,1
Champ
Sis.
2,9
1,6
1,7
2,8
2,3
2,6
3,2
3,1
3,6
3,8
4,5
3,5
3,9
5,7
8,1
6,2
5,7
6,1
6,1
6,1
8,1
7,3
9,3
6,9
6,1
7,6
KC-1
1,0
1,1
1,3
1,6
1,3
1,2
1,6
1,7
1,9
1,9
1,9
2,0
2,3
1,8
3,4
3,0
3,9
4,0
3,1
3,5
3,3
2,9
2,9
2,8
3,0
3,8
Bim
KC-2
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,3
0,6
0,6
0,9
0,7
0,9
1,0
0,9
0,9
0,7
0,8
1,1
1,6
1,5
1,9
1,5
1,8
1,4
1,9
1,5
1,3
1,7
2,0
KC-3
1,1
0,8
1,0
1,3
0,9
1,5
1,3
1,1
1,6
1,5
1,7
1,7
2,1
1,5
2,2
2,2
2,1
2,1
2,1
1,6
2,1
2,4
2,2
2,2
2,1
2,4
Ave.
1,9
2,0
2,2
2,6
2,7
2,9
3,0
3,1
3,5
3,4
3,8
3,9
4,5
5,0
5,2
5,5
5,4
5,7
5,5
5,2
5,9
5,3
5,8
5,3
5,2
5,7
11
23
3/22/2010
17
STRENGTHS
18
Ways to grow
Internal development
Acquisition
Joint venture / alliances
Source: Johnson / Scholes, Exploring Corporate Strategy
3/22/2010
19
Own branding
Move from contract production to brand ownership
Examples: Vakko, Mavi, LTB, Collins, Balizza, Mudo (home textiles), ...
Foreign outlets
Mainly after domestic branding succeeded, especially Russia / Ex-Soviet countries
Examples: Mavi, Colins, Bilsar, Kiili, Sarar, Sabra, Sabri zel, Cross Jeans, T-Box, ...
Foreign investments / subcontracting
Directly investing in foreign countries, or entering into long-term partnerships
Examples: Baha Tekstil (Uzbekistan), Atateks (Jordan), ahnler (China etc.), ....
Differentiation by design influence fashion
Some companies hired well-known designers, or use top models
Examples: Vakko, Balizza, Zeki Triko
3/22/2010
20
Examples: Yeim Tekstil (Nike, Banana Republic etc.), Orta Anadolu Group (Levi
Strauss, Marks&Spencer), etc.
Technical and functional textiles
Fields: Agriculture, building technologies, geology, medical uses, ecology, packing
industry, protective clothing, sportive clothing, ....
Markets both domestic (e.g. Armed Forces) and foreign (e.g. glass fibers)
Highly automated integrated production facilities
Target: shift from labour- to capital-intensive production
Examples: Bossa Denim, Isko, Gap Gneydou
3/22/2010
21
AGENDA
3/22/2010
22
STRATEGY EVALUATION
Strategy Evaluation
Suitability
Acceptability
Feasibility
3/22/2010
Profitability analysis
Cost-benefit analysis
Risk analysis: Sensitivity analysis / simulation modelling
Stakeholder reactions (political dimension)
23
STRATEGY EVALUATION
24
Is the
competence
valuable?
Is the
competence
rare?
Is the
competence
difficult to
imitate?
Are there no
substitutes?
Disadvantage
no
Yes
no
Yes
Yes
no
Yes
Yes
Yes
no
Incremental
Advantage
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Sustainable
Advantage
Parity
Temporary
Advantage
25
STRATEGY EVALUATION
T
Nettoumsatz
Wareneinsatz
Warengruppenspanne
Nicht kalkulierte Vergtungen
Logistikkosten
Inventurdifferenzen
Rohertrag
Personalkosten
Deckungsbeitrag 1
Abschreibungen
Mietkosten
Werbung
Instandhaltung
Materialverbrauch
Fuhrpark
Sonstige Sachkosten/Ertrge
Sonstige operative Posten
Operative Kosten
Deckungsbeitrag 2
Direktkosten
Deckungsbeitrag 3
Indirekte Kosten
DB 4 - EBITA
Bereinigungen/Anpassungen
Bereinigtes/angepates EBITA
Zinsergebnis
Beteiligungsergebnis
Abschreibungen a.d. FAV
Finanzergebnis
Andere auerordentliche Ergebnisse
Ergebnis vor Ertragsteuern
Steuern
Ergebnis nach Ertragsteuern
Kennzahlen (in % des Nettoumsatzes)
Warengruppenspanne
Rohertrag
Personalkosten
Operative Kosten
EBITA
Wachstumsraten (p.a.)
Nettoumsatz
Warengruppenspanne
Rohertrag
Personalkosten
Operative Kosten
EBITA
3/22/2010
2007
01-12
Ist
12,150,665
-9,889,251
2,261,413
219,045
-278,957
-42,115
-102,026
2,159,387
-1,051,694
1,107,693
2008
01-12
Ist
14,278,000
-11,950,316
2,327,684
151,530
-100,380
-55,161
-4,011
2,323,673
-1,205,040
1,118,633
2009
01-12
Budget
16,183,752
-13,539,521
2,644,231
150,331
-180,592
-55,548
-85,810
2,558,421
-1,301,078
1,257,343
2010
01-12
Planung
16,624,456
-13,978,107
2,646,350
170,741
-116,000
-57,962
-3,221
2,643,129
-1,330,691
1,312,438
2011
01-12
Planung
17,300,355
-14,554,434
2,745,921
176,542
-137,227
-59,721
-20,407
2,725,514
-1,358,563
1,366,952
2012
01-12
Planung
17,973,886
-15,160,772
2,813,114
182,258
-129,218
-61,539
-8,499
2,804,615
-1,392,016
1,412,599
2013
01-12
Planung
18,649,304
-15,752,529
2,896,774
187,715
-133,816
-63,336
-9,438
2,887,337
-1,427,982
1,459,355
-102,194
-461,986
20,891
-76,341
-38,170
-199,014
-88,602
16,748
-928,669
189,964
189,964
-117,797
-525,172
-7,697
-118,249
-36,867
-225,613
-252,993
175,802
-1,108,586
148,758
148,758
-126,572
-532,194
-4,860
-84,937
-35,258
-232,735
-77,902
339
-1,094,118
218,320
-0
218,320
-128,779
-549,517
-3,425
-90,980
-36,109
-236,818
-78,045
339
-1,123,332
243,619
-0
243,619
-131,008
-564,470
-1,945
-93,232
-36,976
-245,003
-78,196
339
-1,150,490
262,109
-0
262,109
-133,242
-582,105
-452
-95,882
-37,860
-255,888
-78,350
339
-1,183,439
275,916
0
275,916
189,964
-4,400
185,564
-29,021
-2,000
-31,021
984
159,927
159,927
148,758
148,758
-21,655
-21,655
127,103
-17
127,086
218,320
218,320
-23,821
-23,821
194,498
194,498
243,619
243,619
-23,907
-23,907
219,713
219,713
262,109
262,109
-23,996
-23,996
238,113
238,113
275,916
275,916
-24,090
-24,090
251,826
251,826
18.6%
17.8%
8.7%
6.9%
2.1%
16.3%
16.3%
8.4%
6.5%
1.3%
16.3%
15.8%
8.0%
6.8%
0.9%
15.9%
15.9%
8.0%
6.6%
1.3%
15.9%
15.8%
7.9%
6.5%
1.4%
15.7%
15.6%
7.7%
6.4%
1.5%
15.5%
15.5%
7.7%
6.3%
1.5%
k.A.
k.A.
k.A.
k.A.
k.A.
k.A.
17.5%
2.9%
7.6%
14.6%
11.1%
-27.0%
13.3%
13.6%
10.1%
8.0%
19.4%
-21.7%
2.7%
0.1%
3.3%
2.3%
-1.3%
46.8%
4.1%
3.8%
3.1%
2.1%
2.7%
11.6%
3.9%
2.4%
2.9%
2.5%
2.4%
7.6%
3.8%
3.0%
2.9%
2.6%
2.9%
5.3%
-98,219
-426,140
-52,403
-63,250
-28,603
-165,139
-66,385
64,048
-836,091
271,602
0
271,602
-11,305
260,296
-36,297
224,000
-13,173
-13,173
247,123
247,123
26
STRATEGY EVALUATION
Acceptability: Profitability
Forecast: F12
1'000 Trials
Frequency Chart
4 Outliers
.0 2 8
28
.0 2 1
21
.0 1 4
14
.0 0 7
.0 0 0
0
-5 0 0 . 0 0
-2 5 0 . 0 0
0 .0 0
2 5 0 .0 0
Risks considered
Market risk
(quantities / prices)
Raw material price risk
Personnel cost risk
Currency risks
Interest rate risk
5 0 0 .0 0
Forecast: F12
1'000 Trials
Frequency Chart
4 Outliers
.028
28
.021
21
.014
14
.007
.000
0
-500.00
3/22/2010
-250.00
0.00
250.00
500.00
Strategic option 2
provides less risk at
comparable returns
27
STRATEGY EVALUATION
100
40
50
15
30
15.5
150.5
30
40
0
30
28
STRATEGY EVALUATION
AGENDA
3/22/2010
29
RESTRUCTURING
3/22/2010
30
RESTRUCTURING
Restructuring
3/22/2010
31
Workstream Operations
Workstream Strategy
32
RESTRUCTURING
AGENDA
3/22/2010
33
PLANNING SECTION
---------------------------
1. Competence Center Pharma
4. E-Learning Solutions
5. Consulting Solutions
6. IT
7. NM
11. Eskisehir
12. Administration & Accounting
13. LoginIT
7. Next Steps
34
For
Target #
Responsible
Finalization
Date
Board
15.1.
Sales
31.1.
Board / Sales
15.1.
Con
31.1.
Acc
Asap
Sales / Joa
15.1.
HR
15.1.
Sales / Board
15.1.
Creative / IT
1.1.
IT
31.1.
35
Area
Availability
Date
Developm.
31.10.2002
28.02.2003
Partnership
31.09.2002
On-going
Partnership
N/A
N/A
Project
N/A
N/A
Developm.
31.10.2002
Developm.
31.11.2002
31.11.2002
Developm.
31.11.2002
31.01.2003
System
31.09.2002
Project
31.08.2002
Project
31.07.2002
Project
31.10.2002
31.01.2003
36
Function
Managem.
Dept. Man.
IT
Persons
Criterion
IT output quality
Personal + Manag.
Performance
Strategic Target
Performance
Consulting
Consultant
Booked Sales
Offer Success
Project Milestones
Invoiced Sales
Resource usage
projects/ventures/
products
Rebooking rate
Personal
Performance
Strategic Target
Performance
3/22/2010
NA
Source
Respon.
Frequency
Range %
Sign
Actual net
sales
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Budget
Didem
quarterly
50 - 200
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Budget
Didem
quarterly
-100 - 300
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Performance
control
Didem
quarterly
0 - 250
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Resource
control
50 - 200
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Error report
Alphatest
Didem
quarterly
PM's,
aggregation
Didem
quarterly
0 - 500
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Employee
evaluation
Filiz,
Joachim
33 - 133
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Strategy
review
33 - 133
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
CRM
Filiz,
Joachim
quarterly
Tlay,
aggregation
Didem
quarterly
50 - 200
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
CRM
Tlay,
aggregation
Didem
quarterly
0 - 200
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Resource
control
Didem
quarterly
75 - 150
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Workdone
Summary
Didem
quarterly
0-200
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Resource
control
Didem
quarterly
50 - 200
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
CRM
Tlay,
aggregation
Didem
quarterly
0 - 200
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Employee
evaluation
Filiz,
Joachim
quarterly
33 - 133
Actual fig. :
Target fig.
Strategy
review
Filiz,
Joachim
quarterly
33 - 133
quarterly
37
AGENDA
3/22/2010
38
RESTRUCTURING TEAM
Project Team
Project Owner
Top management and / or company owners
Steering Committee
Project owner, board, top management
Project Team
Members of client team from all relevant departments
BIC consultants experienced in restructuring projects and / or relevant workstreams
Senior managers and specialists from BIC Business Network, under management of BIC
project manager
Experts and interim managers from partner companies in BIC Partner Network, under
management of BIC project manager
3/22/2010
39
RESTRUCTURING TEAM
Project Approach
Key Success Factors
Involvement of all relevant parties
Deep and broad skillsets (expert knowledge) represented in project
Confidentiality
Speed and rigid decision and implementation process
Project Management Requirements
Deep understanding of all workstreams and project issues
Application of proven project management methodology
Project manager acts as initial decision maker for all relevant decisions
Project Office
Supports project during all project phases until project completion
Provides detailed, phase- and workstream-specific project plans, task lists and checklists
Supports project status reports, status meetings, reports to steering committee, etc.
Responsible for planning and followup of tasks, timeline, budget, project success
Responsible for formalized information gathering, documentation, distribution, central
point of communication
Managed by and reporting to project manager
3/22/2010
40
RESTRUCTURING TEAM
Project Tools
3/22/2010
41
3/22/2010
42
RESTRUCTURING TEAM