ANALYSIS OF TURKEY GENERAL ELECTIONS

INTRODUCTION
Turkeys 24th general elections resulted in the election of 550 members to the Turkish Grand National
Assembly on June 7, 2015. According to official statistics, Turkey has 53,765,231 eligible voters
domestically and 2,867,658 eligible voters abroad, and this years participation rate was 84 percent.
According to the unofficial results of the election, the incumbent ruling AK Party lost its Parliamentary
majority and missed the mark to independently form a government, the first time since 2002. With 96.91
percent of the votes counted, the AKP received 40.70 percent of the vote, while the CHP, MHP, and HDP
received 25.16 percent, 16.50 percent 12.99 percent of the vote, respectively. The AKP obtained 254 MPs
in the Parliament, falling short of the 276 that it needed to form a government. The main opposition, the
secularist and social democrat CHP, attained 131 MPs, while the traditional, nationalist MHP and the proKurdish HDP each saw the election of 82 MPs. These results depict voters insistence on maintaining the
Parliamentary system and supporting democracy in Turkey.
Chart I: Unofficial Election Results

Source: Hurriyet Daily News

THE 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD AND ITS IMPACT

According to Turkeys election system, a party needs to obtain at least 10 percent of the popular vote in
order to enter the Turkish Grand National Assembly. This policy was introduced in 1980, after a military
coup, and it has not been amended since then. This threshold is considered a controversial requirement,
given that it is seen by some commentators as undemocratic, due to the fact that it may strengthen the
power of the ruling party and prevent representation of smaller political and ethnic minorities in the National
Assembly. It is therefore difficult for new political movements to emerge.
Because of the threshold, many political groups, such as the Kurds, have historically participated in the
elections as independent candidates, for whom the threshold does not have an impact. Kurdish
politicians, who have obtained seats in the National Assembly this way for the past few decades, have now
formed a new and a more inclusive political party called the HDP (Peoples Democratic Party) and for the
first time entered a general election as a party. By submitting a candidate list composed of Turks, Kurds,
and other minorities, the HDP managed to attract the interest of many new voters, including Turks in
Turkeys western provinces.
Chart II: Parliament Composition According to the Unofficial Election Results

Source: Hurriyet Daily News

Kurdish Roulette Paid Off

According to the unofficial results, HDPs bold and risky move has paid off as it obtained 12.99 percent of
the popular vote. If the HDP entered the elections not as a party, but via the previously adopted strategy of
campaigning as independent candidates, as it did during the General Elections of 2011, the HDP would
have been essentially guaranteed 25-30 MPs. The HDP managed to add approximately two million votes in
this election. The great risk in undertaking an election as a party, rather than as independent candidates, is
the HDP would not have had any presence in the National Assembly if it failed to pass the 10 percent
threshold. Nevertheless, the Kurdish gamble has paid off, and HDP has managed to obtain a record of 82
seats in the National Assembly. This will have significant implications in the government and in the overall
future political system of the country.

WHATS NEXT?
The HDPs success in passing the 10 percent threshold marks the beginning of a new political era in
Turkey. First, the representation of a pro-Kurdish party in the National Assembly will have implications for
the peace process that was initiated by the AKP. A diplomatic presence of the Kurds in the Turkish National
Assembly can ease tensions surrounding ongoing peace talks, but it is not entirely clear whether these
implications will be positive or negative for Turkey.
Most significantly, the admission of the HDP into the National Assembly will end the 13-year period of
single-party rule in Turkey. The ruling AKP lost a sufficient number of seats in the National Assembly to
form a government with only 254 MPs, as 276 MPs are needed to form a government. Moreover, it is
nearly impossible for the AKP to introduce constitutional amendments to a popular vote, since this requires
330 MPs. President Erdoans goal of establishing a presidential system now appears out of reach. This
result is likely to trigger a leadership crisis within the AKP. There is a serious possibility that Turkey will
witness a power struggle between Erdoans staunch supporters and other AKP heavyweights within the
party. Erdoan does not hold legal power over the partys management, so he is likely to place blame on
Prime Minister and AKP Chairman Ahmet Davutolu while high-level AKP officials who have been more
vocal against particular remarks of Erdoan are likely to become more vocal. It should be noted that the
AKP has been very successful in avoiding this kind of a power struggle throughout its history, but this time,
it appears inevitable.
Coalition Alternatives
In order to form a government, the AKP needs the support of an opposition party. During the campaign
season, all opposition parties vehemently stated that they would never consider entering a coalition with the
AKP. In particular, CHP, the main opposition party, is the most unlikely to form a government with the AKP
due to its voter base. One option may be the nationalist opposition party, MHP. Transitivity exists between
the voters of the AKP and the MHP; both their voter bases are traditional, conservative and nationalist. Yet,
in order for the AKP to garner the MHPs support for a coalition, it needs to sacrifice the peace process and
its plans for a presidential system. This would cause the government to utilize a security-oriented approach
to the Kurdish Question and thwart Erdoans ambitions of a presidential system. Many high-level officials
within the AKP have indicated that they are not as eager as Erdogan for a possible transition to a
presidential system. Erdogans influence over the AKP may be definitive in such a scenario. Violent
protests and clashes in the southeastern region of the country may erupt during such a U-turn. This is a
less likely scenario, unless the MHP is offered an appealing compromise.
Another possibility may be for the AKP and HDP to partner to form the government, which would also
include large bargaining chips such as constitutional amendments. HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirta has
explicitly stated that the HDP would never ally with the AKP without the recognition of its principles on
fundamental rights by the AKP, and if he pivots on this issue, this could gravely alienate a large base of
current supporters. Thus, if it were to enter into coalition talks, the bargain would most likely be for
fundamental rights and gains in the peace process. A presidential system would likely be off the agenda,
upsetting Erdoans ambitions. On the other hand, the AKP may not also be very eager to form a
government with HDP as it would be met with disagreement from its conservative and pious voter base and
shift these voters to the nationalist MHP.
Minority Government
If the AK Party fails to form a government, the main opposition party CHP will be the next in line to enter
into coalition talks. Normally, a CHP-MHP coalition would be likely, but they would not have enough seats
in the National Assembly. The HDP would have to be included in the coalition, but a coalition that includes
both MHP and HDP is nearly impossible. The only feasible alternative is likely to be a CHP-MHP coalition
with external support from the HDP, but this government would most probably remain for a year or two
before early elections would need to be called.

Early Elections
If no party is able to form a government within 45 days, the president can call for early elections. Early
media reports and statements from the AKP suggest that the former ruling party is betting on this scenario.
The opposition parties ability to compromise with each other is likely to determine the outcome, should the
AKP fail to, or refrain from, forming the government in the first place. Early elections cannot be held within
the three-month post-election period.
Short-term Economic Implications
Instability regarding the uncertainty of Turkey's government formation is very likely to have a negative
impact on the Turkish economy. The Turkish stock exchange, Borsa Istanbul, is expected to fall between
the levels of 76 - 77,000 base points until the government is formed and uncertainty dissipates. Analysts
are expectng the USD/TRY to reach 2.81 Turkish Liras to the dollar. Once the future of the government
and its formation is more certain, markets will likely find their equilibrium. In the medium term, the election
outcome is likely to have a positive economic effect due to a perceived democratic gain.

For more information about APCO Worldwide in Turkey, please contact:

Zeynep Dereli
Executive Director
(t) +44 7747 783302
(m)+90 549 4204540
zdereli@apcoworldwide.com

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