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Contents Strategy comment: The Correction Trade ‐ Return to Defensive Names
Stock market performance 2 Global markets have become jittery on the back of China growth concerns, and solvency issues in southern Europe. In periods of
Market liquidity 6 heightened market volatility Russian equities tend to be among the first to be offloaded. While reducing holdings of Russian energy and
Market valuations 7 materials may be justified in the current market environment, we recommend investors reallocate into defensive names: Utilities (MRSK
Company earnings 10 Holding, MRSK Center, MRSK South, and MRSK Urals), pharmaceuticals (Veropharm), and food producers (Cherkizovo). We also suggest
Commodities 12 sticking with telecoms, specifically the regional telecoms operators, given the current positive sentiment related to the sector’s
Currencies 14 reorganisation (we have yet to initiate on the sector so have no official ratings). When risk appetite returns we advise investors to position
Interest rates/Risk indicators 15 themselves to gain exposure to the domestic growth story. This means continuing to add to the aforementioned sectors but also to
The economy 17
increase exposure to retailers (Magnit), financials (Sberbank, Vozrozhdenie), and automakers (Sollers, Gaz).
Macroeconomic tables 23
Top picks under ATON coverage Chart of the month: We expect GDP to grow 6.4% in 2010 and 7.1% in 2011
Company Ticker Last price MCap 2010 P/E
10%
We have revised our GDP growth forecast for this year
($) ($mn) (x) 8.1%
7.3% 7.1% 7.4% 7.1% to 6.4% (5.8% previously), and for 2011 we now expect
8% 6.4% 6.4%
5.6%
Integra INTE LI 3.2 571 17.6 6% GDP to grow 7.1% (6.0% previously). Our growth
Uralkali URKA LI 21.3 9,054 13.2
4% forecasts for most other variables have also been
Silvinit pref SILVP RU 376 6,182 10.3 2% nudged up. The forecast comes on the back of the
Vozrozhdenie VZRZ RU 41.8 992 9.9 0%
prospect of a more pronounced base effect given a
Sberbank SBER RU 2.7 58,285 10.1 ‐2%
MRSK Holding MRKH RU 0.139 5,705 6.7 weaker than initially expected 2009, modification to
‐4%
MRSK Urals MRKU RU 0.0091 796 5.4 ‐6% our trend‐based forecasting tool, upward revision of
Magnit MGNT LI 15.2 6,740 16.8 ‐8% the oil price, continued easing by the CBR (for 2010),
Veropharm VRPH RU 29.0 290 6.1 ‐10% ‐7.9% and lower inflation which means a lower deflator. For
Sollers SVAV RU 15.0 514 Neg 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E more details see our report The Russian Economy:
Gaz GAZA RU 22.7 420 Neg From Hibernation to Exaltation, 8 Feb.
Source: Rosstat, Aton estimates
Data dashboard
Market indicators Last Period Change* Economic indicators Period Change vs Prev. Outlook Period Change vs Prev. Outlook
MICEX 1344.7 YtD ‐1.0% GDP 3Q09 ‐8.9% Unemployment (level) Dec‐09 8.2%
RTS 1404.1 YtD ‐2.3% Industrial production Dec‐09 2.7% International reserves Jan‐10 $435.8bn
RDX 1299.4 YtD ‐0.8% Fixed investment Dec‐09 ‐8.9% Trade balance Dec‐09 $12.7bn
MSCI Russia 773 YtD ‐2.3% Retail sales Dec‐09 ‐3.6% RUB/$, eop Jan‐10 30.4/$
*As of 5 Feb 2010 Real wage Dec‐09 0.6% RUB/€, eop Jan‐10 42.6/€
CPI Jan‐10 8.0% Refinancing rate (level) Jan‐10 8.75%
15 Feb 2010 Source: Rosstat, CBR, Aton estimates. Notes: YoY changes unless otherwise stated. Outlook refers to ATON forecast for next period. For exchange rates: upward arrow
indicates an appreciation; downward arrow indicates a depreciation.
Peter Westin, Chief Equity Strategist/Economist
Inga Foksha, Equity Strategy/Economics Alexander Sivolobov, Equity Strategy/Economics
+7 (495) 777 6677 (ext. 2656) +7 (495) 777 6677 (ext. 2644)
+7 (495) 777 6677 (ext. 2671)
peter.westin@aton.ru inga.foksha@aton.ru alexander.sivolobov@aton.ru
MSCI Indices, 1M performance: Over the past month MSCI indices, 3M performance: Over the past three MSCI indices, Current index level vs 5Y average:
the MSCI Russia (down 4%) has outperformed within months the MSCI Russia has gained only 0.1% Compared to its 5Y average, the MSCI RU Index is
the EM universe. currently among the lowest level of any EM.
Russia ‐4% Indonesia 5% Indonesia 45%
Thailand ‐6% Turkey 4% Brazil 28%
Indonesia ‐7% Korea 2% India 19%
Turkey ‐9% Thailand 2% China 19%
Czech Rep ‐10% Mexico 0% Turkey 10%
Mexico ‐10% India 0% EM 7%
Korea ‐10% Russia 0% Thailand 7%
MSCI EM ‐12% Taiwan ‐1% S.Africa 7%
India ‐12% S. Africa Mexico 4%
STOCK MA
‐2%
S. Africa ‐12% MSCI EM ‐3% Korea ‐1%
Taiwan ‐12% China ‐8% Taiwan ‐4%
Argentina ‐13% Hungary ‐8% Czech ‐6%
China ‐13% Poland ‐9% Argentina ‐15%
Hungary ‐15% Argentina ‐11% Russia ‐16%
Poland ‐15% Brazil ‐13% Hungary ‐18%
Brazil ‐18%
% Czech Rep
Czech Rep ‐13%% Poland ‐22%
ARKET PERFORMANCE
‐20% ‐15% ‐10% ‐5% 0% ‐20% ‐10% 0% 10% ‐30% ‐10% 10% 30% 50%
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
90% 120%
80
90%
60%
60
60%
30% 40
30%
0% 20
0%
‐30% ‐30% 0
Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐07 Oct‐07 Jul‐08 Apr‐09 Jan‐10
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
2
MSCI Russia Energy Index relative to MSCI EM MSCI Russia Materials Index relative to MSCI EM MSCI Russia Financials Index relative to MSCI EM
Energy: YtD Russian Energy stocks have outperformed Materials: YtD Russian Materials have outperformed Financials: Russia's best performing sector in 2009
their EM peers by 8%. their EM peers by 15%. has outperformed its EM peers 12% YtD.
1.1 1.4 2.2
1.3 2.0
1.8
1.2
1.0
1.6
1.1
1.4
STOCK MA
1.0
1.2
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.8 0.8
08
0.8 07
0.7 06
0.6
ARKET PERFORMANCE
Jan‐09 Mar‐09 May‐09 Aug‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐09 Mar‐09 May‐09 Aug‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐09 Mar‐09 May‐09 Aug‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSIC, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
3
MSCI Russia: 1M performance by sector (%) MSCI Russia: 3M performance by sector (%) MSCI Russia: 12M performance by sector (%)
STOCK MA
Energy ‐5% MSCI Russia 0% Utilities 161%
Telecoms ‐12% Energy ‐4% MSCI Russia 133%
Health Care ‐16% Telecoms ‐6% Telecoms 115%
Cons Staples ‐18% Health care ‐9% Energy 94%
ARKET PERFORMANCE
‐25% ‐15% ‐5% 5% ‐15% ‐5% 5% 15% 25% 0% 200% 400%
0.6 0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4 0.2 0.2
0.1
0.2 0.0
0
0.0 ‐0.2 ‐0.1
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Jul‐06 Mar‐07 Dec‐07 Aug‐08 May‐09 Jan‐10
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
4
MICEX performance, 1M (%) RTS performance, 1M (%)
40%
BOTTOM TOP BOTTOM TOP
29% 34% 35% 37%
30% 35% 25% 35%
17% 19% 20%
20% 13% 14% 15%
10% 12% 13%
8% 15%
10% 4% 5% 6% 6%
STOCK MA
0%
‐5%
‐10% ‐5% ‐4% ‐3% ‐9% ‐9% ‐8% ‐7%
‐6% ‐6% ‐5%
‐8% ‐8% ‐8% ‐14% ‐14% ‐12%
‐20% ‐13% ‐12% ‐11% ‐10% ‐25%
SIBN
GKC
RN
NFP
ROSSN
NT
MK
SPTL
OH
KA
RASP
GN
AFKS
MTLR
MO
MO
AV
NMTTP
KH
MF
SNGSP
VTTEL
MF
BCI
BN
ROSSN
PLLZL
KC
MK
GS
OH
PMTL
BR
KA
KN
DR
GN
RASSP
RSI
OGKE
CHM
SNG
CHM
MGN
NLM
NLM
VTB
HYD
TRN
OGK
SVA
URK
URK
OG
LKO
LKO
AKR
MRK
SIB
MAG
MAG
ESM
ARKET PERFORMANCE
GMK
VSM
UR
RB
Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
RDX performance, 1M (%)
10% 7%
BOTTOM TOP
5%
0%
‐5% ‐1%
‐2% ‐2%
‐10% ‐6% ‐5%
‐8% ‐7%
‐9%
‐15% ‐11% ‐11% ‐10%
‐20% ‐16% ‐14%
‐20%
‐25%
SGGD
ROSN
NLMK
OGZD
LKOD
ATAD
PLZL
VTBR
MNOD
EVR
HYDR
SVST
URKA
NVTK
SSA
Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
5
MICEX liquidity ($mn): Liquidity on the MICEX has recovered from its recent low at end‐ RTS liquidity ($mn): Liquidity on the RTS in 2H09 only slightly improved on 1H09 and
2008/beginning of 2009, with an average daily traded volume of $1,795mn over the past 11 remains well below its pre‐crisis level (Note: data is for the RTS Classica Index).
months.
6,000 120
5,000 100
Ave. value = $2,197 Ave. value = $1,795 Ave. value = $44
4,000 80
3,000 60
Ave. value = $856 Ave. value = $14
2,000 40
Ave. value = $11
1,000 20
MAR
0 0
RKET LIQUIDITY
Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jul‐08 Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jul‐08 Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10
Source: Bloomberg, Aton estimates, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, Aton estimates, 5 Feb 2010
RDX liquidity ($mn): While the liquidity in GDRs, represented here by the RDX Index,
has recovered somewhat from its recent low, liquidity remains well short of its pre‐
crisis level.
5,000
4,000
Ave. value = $1,664
3,000
2,000 Ave. value = $854
Ave. value = $586
1,000
0
Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jul‐08 Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10
Source: Bloomberg, Aton estimates, 5 Feb 2010
6
12M FWD P/E: With a 12M forward P/E of 7.9x, Russia P/BV 2010E: At 1.0x Russia has the lowest P/BV ratio EV/EBITDA 2010E: The same is true for the
looks attractive within the EM universe. compared to its EM peers. EV/EBITDA ratio, which at 5.1x, remains the lowest
within the EM space.
India 16.2 India 2.9 India 10.3
Taiwan 14.7 Mexico 2.3 Hungary 9.4
Mexico 13.4 Czech 2.1 S.Africa 8.1
Indonesia 13.0 China 2.1
China 12.8 Poland 7.9
Brazil 2.0
Brazil 12.7 EM 7.6
Poland Taiwan 1.8
12.3 Mexico 7.2
EM 11.9 EM 1.8
Argentina 1.8 Thailand 6.7
S.Africa 10.9
Czech 10.4 S.Africa 1.6 Brazil 6.8
Thailand 10.4 Turkey 1.6 Indonesia 6.5
Hungary 9.9 Thailand 1.5 China 6.5
Korea 9.3 Poland 1.4
MARK
Turkey 6.5
Argentina 9.2 Korea 1.3
Turkey 9.0 Czech 5.9
Hungary 1.2
Russia 7.9 Russia 5.1
Russia 1.0
KET VALUATIONS
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
P/CF 2010E: In addition, Russia's P/CF ratio of 5.1x is one of the lowest in the emerging PEG ratio 2010E: On 2010 earnings‐growth‐adjusted P/E, Russia relative to other EM
world. countries has the second‐lowest PEG ratio at 0.22x.
7
12M forward P/E; current vs 6M ago: Russia's 12M 12M forward P/E: Russia's low aggregate market P/E 12M forward P/E discount/premium vs EM:
forward P/Es (aggregate as well as for individual of 7.9x is heavily influenced by the low P/E for Energy Russia trades at a 32% discount to EM (Energy
sectors) have seen a moderate contraction over the names (6.2x). 30%, Materials 24%).
past six months.
12M FWD P/E 12M FWD P/E 6M Ago EM Russia
FINANCIALS 11.3 FINANCIALS 18%
13.3
30 13.4
HEALTH CARE CONS STAPLES 16%
12.2
TELECOMS 11.1 MATERIALS 2%
20 8.4
CONS STAPLES 16.1 HEALTH CARE
18.6 ‐9%
10 12.4
MATERIALS TELECOMS ‐24%
MARKET VALUATIONS
12.6
ENERGY 8.9 ENERGY ‐30%
0 6.2
MARKETT
H
11 5
11.5
STAPLES
HEALTH
FINANCIA
A
M
TELECOM
MATERIAL
ENERGYY
MARKET A
MARKET Aggr. MARKET A
MARKET Aggr. ‐32%
32%
CONS
7.9
CARE
Aggr.
LS
S
S
P/BV 2010E vs 2011E: The market currently expects a marginal expansion of book value P/BV 2010E: Discount/premium vs EM peers
in 2011 within all sectors.
2010 2011
FINANCIALS 16%
3
TELECOMS 15%
2
MATERIALS ‐1%
1 UTILITIES ‐38%
MARKET Aggr. ‐39%
0
FINANCIA
RUSSIA
UTILITIES
TELECOM
MATERIAL
ENERGY
MSCI
ENERGY ‐41%
LS
S
8
MSCI Russia vs EM indices, EV/EBITDA 2010E MSCI Russia, EV/EBITDA 2010E vs 2011E
2010 2011
EM Russia 10
5.0 8.0
TELECOMS 8.0 8 7.3
MARKET VALUATIONS
2
UTILITIES 6.8
3.7
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 UTILITIES ENERGY MARKET Aggr. MATERIALS TELECOMS
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
MSCI Russia vs EM indices, P/CF 2010E MSCI Russia P/CF, 2010E vs 2011E
MARKET Aggr. 7.4
5.3 2
ENERGY 6.3
4.5 0
ENERGY MARKET Aggr. TELECOMS UTILITIES MATERIALS FINANCIALS
0 2 4 6 8 10
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
9
MSCI Russia and EM 12M forward EPS (Jan MSCI Russia Energy and EM Energy 12M forward MSCI Russia Materials and EM Materials 12M
2008=100) EPS (Jan 2008=100) forward EPS (Jan 2008=100)
150 150
130
130 130
110
110 110
90
90 90
COM
70 70 70
MPANY EARNINGS
50 50 50
Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐10
40 50 0
Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐10
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
10
Earnings growth, 2010E (%): The consensus (I/B/E/S) earnings outlook for FY10 expects Earnings growth, 2011E (%): The same is true for 2011, with 32% earnings growth
Russia to see among the highest earnings growth in the EM universe in 2010. expected
COM
Thailand 14% Turkey 18%
Mexico 13% China 17%
MPANY EARNINGS
Turkeyy 12%
% Korea 10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
11
Oil price (Brent $/barrel) Gold price and inventories Nickel price and inventories
20 400 2,000,000
10,200 20,000
COMMODITIES
C
0
200 0 200 0
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
0
1,200 0 1,200 0
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
12
Platinum price ($/oz) Palladium price ($/oz) Silver price and inventories
Inventories, 1000 oz (rhs)
Price, $/oz (lhs)
2,300 1,200 25 140,000
130,000
20
1,800 900
120,000
15
1,300 600 110,000
10
100,000
800 300
5
90,000
COMMODITIES
300 0 0 80 000
80,000
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
Baltic Dry Index and HSBC Global Steel Index Selected Reuters commodity indices
Baltic Dry Index (lhs) CRB Spot metals (lhs)
CRB Spot all commodities (rhs)
Global Steel HSBC Index (rhs) 1,500
12,000 CRB Raw Industrials (rhs) 550
1,300 900
10,000
1,100 450
8,000 750
900
6,000 700 600 350
500
4,000 450
300
250
2,000 300
100
0 ‐100
150 150
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
13
Official RUB/USD and RUB/EUR exchange rates Real RUB/USD and RUB/EUR exchange rates (Dec 97=100)
45
130
40
35 110
30
90
25
20 70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CURRENCIES
C
Source: CBR Source: CBR, Aton estimates
1M change in major EM and frontier market currencies (%) 12M change in major EM and frontier market currencies (%)
‐1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% ‐25% ‐20% ‐15% ‐10% ‐5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Source: CBR, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: CBR, Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
14
Monetary policy rates; levels and change from pre‐crisis Key rate difference with US Fed Funds Rates (%): Policy rate in BRIC (%): Russia started rate cuts
peak (%): The CBR held the refinancing rate steady in Russia and Brazil still see the biggest differential vs the later than other BRIC countries, and we see
January at 8.75%. Fed Funds rate. another 75‐100 bpts being cut in 1Q10.
Russia ‐4.3 8.8
Brazil ‐5.0 Russia 8.5 20
8.8 Brazil
S.Africa ‐5.0 8.5
7.0 Turkey 18
Kazakhstan ‐4.0 6.8
7.0 Hungary 6.8 16 Brazil
Turkey ‐10.3 6.5 S.Africa 6.3 14
Hungary ‐5.5
INTEREST RA
6.0 Kazakhstan 5.8
India ‐4.3 4.8 India 4.5 12
Mexico ‐3.8 4.5 Mexico 4.3 10 Russia
Philippines ‐2.0 4.0 Philippines 3.8
‐2.5 Poland 8
Poland Change since 3.5 3.3
Malaysia ‐1.5 Malaysia 1.8 6
pre‐crisis 2.0 Current India
Korea ‐3.3 Korea 1.8 4
peak 2.0 rates China 1.6
China ‐2.5 China
1.8 Bulgaria 0.3 2
Bulgaria ‐5.2 06
0.6
ATES/RISK INDICATORS
0
0 5 10
‐15 ‐10 ‐5 0 5 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: CBR, Bloomberg Source: CBR, Bloomberg Source: CBR, Bloomberg
Thailand
Malaysia Croatia
Czech Republic 1300
South Africa Indonesia
Indonesia Philippines
Philippines South Africa 1100
Poland Thailand
Croatia Estonia
Estonia Malaysia
Czech Republic 900
Argentina
Mexico Kazakhstan
Russia 213 Poland
Korea Turkey 700
Turkey Russia 44.6
Brazil Hungary
Kazakhstan Bulgaria 500
Hungary Mexico
China Brazil
Bulgaria Korea 300
China 213
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 100
‐70 ‐20 30 80 130 180
Aug‐08 Oct‐08 Jan‐09 Apr‐09 Jul‐09 Oct‐09 Jan‐10
Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
15
Russia 30Y Eurobond spread (bpts) MosPrime Rates
Cost of equity (bpts): Russia 5Y CDS spread x RTS
Index excess volatility over S&P 500 volatility
MosPrime rate O/N (%) MosPrime Rate 3M (%)
1,400
1,800 30
1,200
1,500 25
1,000
INTEREST RA
1,200 20
800
900 15
600
600 400 10
420
110
300 200 5
0 0
ATES/RISK INDICATORS
0
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐10
Source: Bloomberg, Aton estimates, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010 Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
REPO rate, Overnight
RUB SWAP O/N (%) REPO Rate O/N (%)
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
Jan‐08 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Jan‐10
Source: Bloomberg, 5 Feb 2010
16
Quarterly GDP real growth rate (% YoY): According to Quarterly BRIC GDP growth (% YoY)*: Within the Nominal GDP (RUBbn): Nominal GDP equalled
Rosstat, GDP dropped 7.9% in FY09, suggesting about BRIC quartet, Russia is still the only country not RUB10.9trn in 4Q09, and for FY09 amounted to
a 2% drop in 4Q09 seeing growth reverting to positive RUB39.2trn, according to Rosstat estimates.
‐5% ‐3 7,000
6,000
‐10% ‐8
5,000
TTHE ECONOMY
‐15%
15% ‐13
13 4 000
4,000
1Q00 4Q01 3Q03 2Q05 1Q07 4Q08 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
GDP real growth rate in 9M09 (% YoY): With a 9.9% contraction in GDP in 9M09, Russia 2010 GDP growth estimate (%): However, we expect a strong rebound in GDP growth
was one of the worst affected economies during the recent recession. in 2010 (6.4%) ‐ the third‐highest growth rate within EM
China
India 6.9 10.7 China 10.0
Indonesia India 7.7
4.2 Russia* 6.4
Philippines 1.8 Brazil 4.7
Poland 1.2 Mexico 4.0
Malaysia 0.9 Turkey 3.7
Taiwan 0.7 Thailand 3.7
Brazil 0.5 Taiwan 3.7
Argentina 0.3 Korea 3.6
Korea 0.2 Indonesia 3.2
South Africa ‐0.9 Malaysia 2.5
Thailand ‐1.2 Poland 2.2
Mexico ‐1.3 Kazakhstan 2.0
Kazakhstan ‐1.7 South Africa 1.7
Hungary ‐7.1 Argentina 1.5
Turkey ‐8.6 Philippines 0.97
Russia ‐9.9 Hungary ‐0.9
Estonia ‐15.6 Estonia ‐2.6
Source: Rosstat, Bloomberg Source: IMF, *Aton estimates
*For Brazil and India the most recent data are for 3Q09, for China they are 4Q09. For Russia, our estimate for 4Q09 is based on Rosstat's FY09 real GDP growth and confirmed 9M09 growth
17
Industrial production and fixed investment (% YoY): Structure of industrial production (% YoY): All three PMI: The manufacturing sector expanded in
IP grew 2.7% YoY in Dec 2009 (positive for a second segments resumed positive growth in Dec 2009. January (a reading above 50) after three
straight month); FI fell 8.9% YoY. Manufacturing led the recovery. consecutive months of decline.
Industrial Production Fixed Investment Mining Manufacturing Basic Services 65
25% 60
25%
Services
55
15% 15%
Manufacturing
50
5% 5%
45
‐5% ‐5%
40
‐15% ‐15% 35
TTHE ECONOMY
‐25%
% ‐25%
25% 30
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Jul‐08 Jan‐09 Jul‐09 Jan‐10
18
Federal Budget (%/GDP): After posting a fiscal deficit of 6.1%/GDP in 2009, Russia Federal Budget balance and Reserve + Wellbeing Funds (%/GDP): In 2009 the
recorded a surplus of 2.6%/GDP in Jan 2010. However, spending tends to be low in combined fiscal fund (reserve and national well‐being) lost $73bn. In the month of
January, hence we do not expect a surplus to be maintained going forward. January it fell another $900mn to $151.2bn.
Revenues Spending Balance Deficit Reserve Fund+Wellbeing Fund
50% 30%
40%
20%
30%
20% 10%
10%
0%
0%
‐10%
‐10%
TTHE ECONOMY
‐20%
20% ‐20%
20%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Ministry of Finance, Rosstat Source: Ministry of Finance, Rosstat
Gross and net FDI ($bn): Over the past two reported quarters Russia has seen an Current account balance (%/GDP): The current account surplus reached 3.9% of GDP in
increase in incoming FDI. In 3Q09, it amounted to $12bn, down 29% YoY. 2009, down 53% from 2008
Gross FDI Net FDI 25
25
20 20
15
10 15
5
10
0
‐5 5
‐10
‐15 0
1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
Source: CBR Source: CBR
19
External debt/GDP (%): Russia's external debt External debt/Export revenue (%): Equally, the International reserves vs total external short‐term
situation is undemanding with total debt equal to 33% debt level vs export revenues demonstrated a debt (%): Russia's total external short‐term debt is
of GDP and government debt only 2% of GDP. fourth consecutive quarterly decline. covered eight times by its international reserves.
General Government General Government
50% 200%
800%
40% 160%
600%
30% 120%
400%
20% 80%
40% 200%
10%
TTHE ECONOMY
0% 0% 0%
%
1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09
25 150%
40
20 120%
30
15 90%
20
10 60%
10
5 30%
0
0 0%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: CBR Source: CBR Source: CBR
20
Monetary aggregates M2, M0, YoY (%): M2 showed YoY growth of M2 and M0 minus YoY GDP growth (%): M2/GDP (%, 3M ave.): Russia's monetisation of the
positive YoY growth in Dec 2009 while M0 is still M2 is again growing slightly faster than GDP, an indication economy remains low at just above 30% (Dec 2009).
declining. of excess liquidity
M2 M0 M2 ‐ GDP M0 ‐ GDP M2/GDP
60% M2/GDP
65% 40%
40%
55% 35%
45% 20% 30%
35% 0% 25%
25% 20%
‐20%
15% 15%
‐40%
5% 10%
‐5% ‐60%
5%
‐15%
TTHE ECONOMY
‐80% 0%
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 1Q97 1Q99 1Q01 1Q03 1Q05 1Q07 1Q09 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Source: CBR Source: CBR, Rosstat Source: CBR, Rosstat
21
Loan/deposit ratio (%): The aggregate loan/deposit Loans, deposits in roubles (% YoY): Deposits grew Loans, deposits in dollars (% YoY): In dollar terms
ratio fell further in Nov 2009 to 101%. 19.5% in Nov 2009 while the slowdown in credit the growth in deposits was less pronounced and
growth halted. credits are still declining.
120% Total Deposits (YoY) Total Loans (YoY) Total Deposits (YoY) Total Loans (YoY)
60%
70%
50%
110%
40% 50%
30% 30%
100%
20%
10%
90% 10%
‐10%
0%
TTHE ECONOMY
80% ‐10%
10% ‐30%
30%
2006 2007 2008 2009 Dec‐07 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09 Dec‐07 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09
Source: CBR Source: CBR Source: CBR
0% ‐10% 0%
Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Jul‐08 Jan‐09 Jul‐09 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Dec‐07 May‐08 Oct‐08 Mar‐09 Aug‐09
Source: CBR Source: CBR, Rosstat Source: CBR
22
KEY INDICATORS Sep‐08 Oct‐08 Nov‐08 Dec‐08 Jan‐09 Feb‐09 Mar‐09 Apr‐09 May‐09 Jun‐09 Jul‐09 Aug‐09 Sep‐09 Oct‐09 Nov‐09 Dec‐09 Jan‐10
Nominal GDP (RUBbn) 4,160 3,911 3,763 4,070 2,512 2,759 3,007 3,085 3,150 3,151 3,480 3,440 3,749 3,687 3,515 3,711 2,812
Industrial output growth, (%) 4.7% 3.9% ‐0.6% ‐6.1% ‐11.7% ‐13.2% ‐14.3% ‐14.6% ‐15.9% ‐15.4% ‐13.3% ‐11.8% ‐11.0% ‐11.1% ‐6.4% ‐2.3% ‐
Fixed investment (%) 14.3% 5.3% ‐0.9% ‐7.5% ‐16.0% ‐14.8% ‐16.1% ‐17.4% ‐24.5% ‐20.6% ‐18.9% ‐19.4% ‐18.6% ‐17.9% ‐14.8% ‐8.9% ‐
Real retail sales (%) 14.8% 12.9% 8.5% 5.3% 4.5% ‐1.4% ‐3.0% ‐4.5% ‐5.6% ‐6.5% ‐8.2% ‐9.6% ‐9.7% ‐8.4% ‐6.4% ‐3.6% ‐
SOCIAL INDICATORS
Real disposable income (%) ‐0.7% ‐1.3% ‐5.8% ‐11.3% ‐5.6% 1.3% 4.1% 1.9% 4.4% 2.9% ‐2.3% ‐8.5% 2.4% 9.9% 3.5% 7.6% ‐
Macroeconomic forecast
Average wage ($/month) 180 237 302 396 531 694 592 776 1,001
Unemployment (% ILO) 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.2 6.1 6.4 8.4 7.9 7.3
PRICES
CPI growth (% Dec/Dec) 12.0 11.7 10.9 9.0 11.9 13.3 8.8 7.7 7.0
PPI growth (% Dec/Dec) 13.0 28.9 18.2 4.9 25.1 ‐7.0 13.9 11.0 7.0
TRADE
Exports ($bn) 135.9 183.2 243.8 303.6 354.4 471.6 306.0 382.1 398.0
Imports ($bn) 76 97 125 164 223 292 192 233 298
Trade balance ($bn) 59.9 85.8 118.4 139.3 130.9 179.7 114.0 148.9 99.7
Current account ($bn) 35.4 58.6 84.6 94.7 77.0 102.3 49.9 89.3 59.8
Current account ratio (%/GDP) 8.2 9.9 11.1 9.6 5.9 6.1 4.0 5.5 2.9
Oil price ($/bbl, Urals Med, aop) 27 34 50 61 69 95 61 79 79
FEDERAL BUDGET
Revenues (%/GDP) 20 20 24 23 23 22 19 19 18
Expenditures (%/GDP) 17.8 15.8 16.3 15.9 18.1 18.2 24.8 21.2 19.5
Fiscal balance (%/GDP) 1.7 4.3 7.5 7.4 5.4 4.1 ‐6.1 ‐1.8 ‐1.7
MONETARY INDICATORS
Gross international reserves ($bn) 77 125 182 304 479 427 439 502 544
M0 (RUBbn eop) 1,147 1,535 2,009 2,785 3,702 3,795 4,038 4,817 6,313
M0 growth (%) 50.3 33.8 30.9 38.6 32.9 2.5 6.4 19.3 31.1
M2 (RUBbn eop) 3,213 4,363 6,046 8,996 13,272 13,493 15,698 18,526 23,381
M2 growth (%) 50.5 35.8 38.6 48.8 47.5 1.7 16.3 18.0 26.2
M2/GDP (% average) 19.3 21.4 22.9 26.4 32.5 32.8 33.6 36.2 36.6
EXCHANGE RATES
RUB/$ (eop) 29.5 27.7 28.8 26.3 24.6 29.4 30.2 28.0 27.1
RUB/$ (aop) 30.7 28.8 28.3 27.2 25.6 24.9 31.7 29.1 27.6
RUB/€ (eop) 36.8 37.8 34.2 34.7 35.9 41.4 43.4 42.0 39.6
R/€ (aop) 34.7 35.8 35.2 34.1 35.1 36.4 44.1 42.7 40.8
Real appr.(+) / depr.(‐) RUB/$ (%) 18.6 14.8 3.4 16.2 15.3 ‐5.4 2.9 13.9 8.3
Real appr.(+) / depr.(‐) RUB/€, (%) ‐1.3 6.3 20.0 5.4 4.8 ‐3.3 3.0 9.7 11.3
Source: Rosstat, CBR, Ministry of Finance, Bloomberg, Aton estimates
25
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The investment ratings may be determined by the following standard ranges:
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by Research Department Management. It may be necessary to temporarily place the investment rating “Under Review” during which period the previously stated investment rating may no longer reflect the analysts’ current thinking. For companies where ATONLINE LIMITED
has not expressed a commitment to provide continuous coverage, to keep you informed, analysts may prepare material covering significant events or background information without an investment rating. Your decision to buy or sell a security should be based upon your
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