Professional Documents
Culture Documents
May 2014
Volume 5, No. 9
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Page 1 of 8
Charlie Munger, partner of Warren Buffett, puts it: You can argue that if youre not willing to react with equanimity
to a market price decline of 50 percent two or three times a century, youre not fit to be a common shareholder, and
you deserve the mediocre result youre going to get compared to the people who do have the temperament to be more
philosophical about these market fluctuations.
Stop wondering if theres going to be another crash.
Just plan how youll react. (Be sure to have your buko juice ready.)
May your dreams come true,
Bo Sanchez
P.S. Get Out of Financial Mediocrity NOW. Join me on May 24 as I reveal to you the powerful habits of happy
millionaires. Come to my 8 Habits of the Happy Millionaire Seminar. See you! For more information, visit www.
TrulyRichClub.com/8Habits now!
Erratum
In our last issue of Stocks Update, we incorrectly spelled Warren Buffetts surname with only one t. We
apologize for that. Theres no doubt though that in essence, the Oracle of Omaha is indeed a buffet of knowledge
and inspiration.Joy
Stocks
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Stocks
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Page 2 of 8
Update: AP
Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP) is the holding company of the Aboitiz Groups involvements in the power
generation and distribution sector. The company has interest in hydroelectric, geothermal, and thermal power plants.
AP is also one of the largest electricity distributors in the country. Currently, it
has interests in seven power distribution utilities in Central Luzon, Visayas, and
Mindanao.
Projected earnings of AP for 2014 and 2015 are seen to be higher after
factoring in the lower expected stream cost of the Tiwi-Makban plant and the first
time earnings contribution of the newly won 246-megawatt Therma Mobile diesel
plants. These plants are expected to generate P470 million in earnings annually.
Furthermore, APs management said that it will push through with the 300MW
Cebu plant project which is foreseen to generation P2.9 billion in earnings
annually. However, this will not have any impact on profitability in the next two years. This will potentially begin to
contribute by 2017. This new Cebu project, together with other new coal plant projects 300-megawatt Davao coal
plant, 40-megawatt Pagbilao coal expansion project, will boost the long-term earnings growth of AP.
Admittedly, APs earnings are still expected to go down this year given the expiration of the Pagbilaos income
tax holiday and lower ancillary service revenues from its hydroelectric plants. However, the decline in earnings will be
less than expected due to the first full year earnings contribution of the Therma Mobile and higher earnings contribution
from Tiwi-Makan.
AP looks like its on its way to future growth, signaling a good time to begin accumulating there shares slowly
as it works towards that growth in the long term.
Stocks
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Stocks
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Volume 5, No. 9
May 2014
Page 3 of 8
Net sales grew by 16 percent to P23 billion on the back of robust industry demand for cement. On the other hand,
cost of sales increased mainly due to higher power rates and raw material prices. LRI believes that industry demand
for cement will remain robust in the following years due to the demand from infrastructure and other constructions
projects of the government. Thus, they are increasing capacity with its Cement Mill in Norzagaray manufacturing
plant. The plant has estimated capacity of 850,000 tons per annum and expected to be operational in June 2015.
I hope this recap, update, check up enlightens you and gives you confidence in your SAM investing.
Happy summer investing!
Here are our SAM tables (as of May 20, 2014 closing).
STOCK
Current Price
Target Price
Action to Take
AC
647.00
621.00
715.00
AP
37.70
38.00
44.30
Continue buying
BDO
88.65
82.74
94.00
EEI
11.16
11.04
12.70
LRI
9.97
13.78
15.85
Continue buying
Stop buying for now
MBT
88.50
86.00
100.00
MEG
4.65
4.70
5.48
Continue buying
SMPH
17.08
16.80
19.41
TEL
2,898.00
2,834.78
3,260.00
STOCK
SYMBOL
DATE
BOUGHT
PRICE
BOUGHT
PRICE
TODAY
YOUR RETURN
BUY BELOW
PRICE
TARGET
PRICE
EXPECTED
GROWTH
AC
Jul-13
603.50
647.00
7.21%
654.80
753.00
24.77%
Aug-13
598.50
647.00
8.10%
602.40
753.00
25.81%
Sep-13
580.00
647.00
11.55%
602.40
753.00
29.83%
Oct-13
601.50
647.00
7.56%
602.40
753.00
25.19%
Nov-13
569.50
647.00
13.61%
602.40
753.00
32.22%
Dec-13
555.00
647.00
16.58%
602.40
753.00
35.68%
Jan-14
525.00
647.00
23.24%
599.13
689.00
31.24%
Feb-14
538.50
647.00
20.15%
599.13
689.00
27.95%
Mar-14
574.00
647.00
12.72%
599.13
689.00
20.03%
Apr-14
590.00
647.00
9.66%
599.13
689.00
16.78%
TOTAL
13.04%
26.95%
AP
May-14
36.40
37.70
3.57%
38.00
44.30
21.70%
TOTAL
3.57%
26.76%
Legend:
n Continue Buying
Stocks
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Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 9
n Stop Buying
May 2014
Page 4 of 8
STOCK
SYMBOL
DATE
BOUGHT
PRICE
BOUGHT
PRICE
TODAY
YOUR RETURN
BUY BELOW
PRICE
TARGET
PRICE
EXPECTED
GROWTH
BDO
Apr-13
86.10
88.65
2.96%
89.60
112.00
30.08%
Jun-13
84.50
88.65
4.91%
97.40
112.00
32.54%
Jul-13
87.50
88.65
1.31%
97.40
112.00
28.00%
Aug-13
82.00
88.65
8.11%
89.60
112.00
36.59%
Sep-13
75.40
88.65
17.57%
89.60
112.00
48.54%
Oct-13
78.40
88.65
13.07%
89.60
112.00
42.86%
Nov-13
78.00
88.65
13.65%
89.60
112.00
43.59%
Dec-13
69.95
88.65
26.73%
89.60
112.00
60.11%
Jan-14
71.80
88.65
23.47%
81.74
94.00
30.92%
Feb-14
80.00
88.65
10.81%
81.74
94.00
17.50%
TOTAL
12.26%
37.07%
EEI
Oct-13
9.57
11.16
16.61%
10.40
13.00
35.84%
Nov-13
9.88
11.16
12.96%
10.40
13.00
31.58%
Dec-13
9.70
11.16
15.05%
10.40
13.00
34.02%
Jan-14
10.04
11.16
11.16%
11.04
12.70
26.49%
Feb-14
10.00
11.16
11.60%
11.04
12.70
27.00%
Mar-14
11.00
11.16
1.45%
11.04
12.70
15.45%
TOTAL
11.47%
28.40%
LRI
Jun-13
11.50
9.97
-13.30%
12.68
15.85
37.83%
Jul-13
11.00
9.97
-9.36%
12.68
15.85
44.09%
Aug-13
10.50
9.97
-5.05%
12.68
15.85
50.95%
Sep-13
9.72
9.97
2.57%
12.68
15.85
63.07%
Oct-13
9.10
9.97
9.56%
12.68
15.85
74.18%
Nov-13
9.25
9.97
7.78%
12.68
15.85
71.35%
Dec-13
8.82
9.97
13.04%
12.68
15.85
79.71%
Jan-14
8.71
9.97
14.47%
13.78
15.85
81.97%
Feb-14
9.00
9.97
10.78%
13.78
15.85
76.11%
Mar-14
8.99
9.97
10.90%
13.78
15.85
76.31%
Apr-14
9.24
9.97
7.90%
13.78
15.85
71.54%
May-14
9.97
9.97
0.00%
13.78
15.85
58.98%
TOTAL
4.11%
65.51%
Legend:
n Continue Buying
Stocks
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Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 9
n Stop Buying
May 2014
Page 5 of 8
STOCK
SYMBOL
DATE
BOUGHT
PRICE
BOUGHT
PRICE
TODAY
YOUR RETURN
BUY BELOW
PRICE
TARGET PRICE
EXPECTED
GROWTH
MBT
Jun-11
50.06
88.50
76.77%
78.88
93.60
86.96%
Jul-11
55.69
88.50
58.93%
78.88
93.60
68.09%
Aug-11
52.85
88.50
67.46%
78.88
93.60
77.11%
Sep-11
50.40
88.50
75.60%
78.88
93.60
85.71%
Oct-11
48.34
88.50
83.10%
78.88
93.60
93.65%
Nov-11
50.33
88.50
75.84%
78.88
93.60
85.97%
Dec-11
47.60
88.50
85.92%
78.88
93.60
96.64%
Jan-12
49.42
88.50
79.08%
83.07
108.00
118.54%
Feb-12
55.23
88.50
60.24%
83.07
108.00
95.55%
Mar-12
61.60
88.50
43.67%
93.91
108.00
75.32%
Apr-12
60.20
88.50
47.01%
93.91
108.00
79.40%
May-12
62.13
88.50
42.45%
93.91
108.00
73.84%
Jun-12
60.55
88.50
46.16%
93.91
108.00
78.36%
Sep-12
65.38
88.50
35.36%
93.91
108.00
65.19%
Oct-12
65.10
88.50
35.94%
104.35
120.00
84.33%
Nov-12
67.24
88.50
31.63%
104.35
120.00
78.48%
Jan-13
72.38
88.50
22.27%
113.04
130.00
79.61%
Feb-13
78.75
88.50
12.38%
129.57
149.00
89.21%
Mar-13
81.90
88.50
8.06%
129.57
149.00
81.93%
Apr-13
82.81
88.50
6.87%
129.57
149.00
79.93%
Jun-13
84.70
88.50
4.49%
129.57
149.00
75.91%
Jul-13
78.89
88.50
12.18%
129.57
149.00
88.87%
Aug-13
77.00
88.50
14.94%
119.20
149.00
93.51%
Sep-13
84.65
88.50
4.55%
91.68
114.60
35.38%
Oct-13
86.95
88.50
1.78%
91.68
114.60
31.80%
Nov-13
80.55
88.50
9.87%
91.68
114.60
42.27%
Dec-13
73.20
88.50
20.90%
91.68
114.60
56.56%
Jan-14
73.75
88.50
20.00%
86.96
100.00
35.59%
Feb-14
79.55
88.50
11.25%
86.96
100.00
25.71%
Mar-14
81.40
88.50
8.72%
86.96
100.00
22.85%
Apr-14
79.70
88.50
11.04%
86.00
100.00
25.47%
TOTAL
35.95%
71.22%
MEG
May-13
4.23
4.65
9.93%
4.16
4.78
13.00%
Jun-13
3.67
4.65
26.70%
4.16
4.78
30.25%
Jul-13
3.15
4.65
47.62%
4.16
4.78
51.75%
Aug-13
3.40
4.65
36.76%
3.89
4.87
43.24%
Sep-13
3.21
4.65
44.86%
3.89
4.87
51.71%
Oct-13
3.64
4.65
27.75%
3.89
4.87
33.79%
Nov-13
3.58
4.65
29.89%
3.89
4.87
36.03%
Dec-13
3.23
4.65
43.96%
3.89
4.87
50.77%
Jan-14
3.36
4.65
38.39%
3.95
4.54
35.12%
Feb-14
3.78
4.65
23.02%
4.70
5.48
44.97%
Apr-14
4.43
4.65
4.97%
4.70
5.48
23.70%
May-14
4.65
4.65
0.00%
4.70
5.48
17.85%
TOTAL
27.82%
36.02%
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 9
May 2014
Page 6 of 8
STOCK
SYMBOL
DATE
BOUGHT
PRICE
BOUGHT
PRICE
TODAY
YOUR RETURN
BUY BELOW
PRICE
TARGET
PRICE
EXPECTED
GROWTH
SMPH
Oct-13
16.90
17.08
1.07%
17.20
21.50
27.22%
Nov-13
16.40
17.08
4.15%
17.20
21.50
31.10%
Dec-13
15.10
17.08
13.11%
17.20
21.50
42.38%
Jan-14
14.68
17.08
16.35%
16.73
19.41
32.22%
Feb-14
14.70
17.08
16.19%
16.73
19.41
32.04%
Mar-14
14.90
17.08
14.63%
16.73
19.41
30.27%
Apr-14
14.90
17.08
14.63%
16.80
19.41
30.27%
TOTAL
11.45%
32.21%
TEL
Jun-13
2902.00
2898.00
-0.14%
3043.48
3500.00
20.61%
Jul-13
2854.00
2898.00
1.54%
2848.00
3560.00
24.74%
Aug-13
2800.00
2898.00
3.50%
2848.00
3560.00
27.14%
Nov-13
2800.00
2898.00
3.50%
2848.00
3560.00
27.14%
Dec-13
2622.00
2898.00
10.53%
2848.00
3560.00
35.77%
Jan-14
2710.00
2898.00
6.94%
2834.78
3260.00
20.30%
Feb-14
2690.00
2898.00
7.73%
2834.78
3260.00
21.19%
Mar-14
2760.00
2898.00
5.00%
2834.78
3260.00
18.12%
Apr-14
2730.00
2898.00
6.15%
2834.78
3260.00
19.41%
TOTAL
4.97%
23.82%
Legend:
n Continue Buying
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 9
n Stop Buying
May 2014
Page 7 of 8
STOCK
SYMBOL
TIME
RECOMMENDED
ESTIMATED
TIME HELD
PRICE
RANGE
ESTIMATED
RETURN
Alliance Global
AGI
January 2013 to
February 2013
1 Month
P17.54 to P20.50
16.88%
Meralco
MER
January 2013 to
April 2013
3 Months
P268.00 to P377.00
28..05%
First Philippine
Holdings
FPH
25 Months
P63.18 to P95.20
32.92%%
JG Summit
Holdings
JGS
February 12 to
October 2013
18 Months
P25.75 to P43.50
39.96%
STOCK
SYMBOL
TIME
RECOMMENDED
ESTIMATED
TIME HELD
PRICE
RANGE
ESTIMATED
RETURN
Ayala Land
ALI
9 Months
P15.09 to P21.65
35%
Nickel Asia
NIKL
2 Months
P23.75 to P26.20
10.32%
Bank of The
Philippine Islands
BPI
February 2012 to
November 2012 (4th week)
10 Months
P68.45 to P91.00
34.29%
Ayala Corporation
AC
October 2012 to
December 2012
(2nd week)
2 Months
P440.00 to P520.00
17.65%
SM Prime
Holdings
SMPH
February 2012 to
December 2012 (1st week)
10 Months
P12.48 to P17.00
27.75%
Alliance Global
AGI
January 2013 to
February 2013
1 Month
P17.54 to P20.50
16.88%
Meralco
MER
January 2013 to
April 2013
3 Months
P268.00 to P377.00
28.05%
First Phlippine
Holdings
FPH
25 Months
P63.18 to P95.20
32.92%%
JG Summit
Holdings
JGS
February 12 to
October 2013
18 Months
P25.75 to P43.50
39.96%
(Disclaimer: Past performance doesnt guarantee that youll have the exact same results in the future. After all, your
earnings all depend on the markets performance.)
Mike Vias is an Investment Trainer of COL Financial Group, Inc. He is a Certified Securities Representative
and Certified Investment Solicitor.
Stocks
Update
Stocks
Update
Volume 5, No. 9
May 2014
Page 8 of 8