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About the Europe Program
The Europe Program aims to enhance understanding of the challenges facing the European Union and the potential
implications for the transatlantic relationship. Analysis, research, and policy recommendations are designed to understand
the dichotomy of disintegration and deepening of the EU and to help improve the political, economic, financial, and social
stability of the EU and its member states. In 2015, the Europe Program focuses on integration and disintegration in the EU,
the deepening of the euro area, the changing role of Germany in Europe and the world, as well as challenges in the EUs
neighborhood.
About GMF
The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and
global challenges and opportunities in the spirit of the Marshall Plan. GMF contributes research and analysis and convenes
leaders on transatlantic issues relevant to policymakers. GMF offers rising leaders opportunities to develop their skills and
networks through transatlantic exchange, and supports civil society in the Balkans and Black Sea regions by fostering democratic initiatives, rule of law, and regional cooperation. Founded in 1972 as a non-partisan, non-profit organization through
a gift from Germany as a permanent memorial to Marshall Plan assistance, GMF maintains a strong presence on both sides
of the Atlantic. In addition to its headquarters in Washington, DC, GMF has offices in Berlin, Paris, Brussels, Belgrade,
Ankara, Bucharest, and Warsaw. GMF also has smaller representations in Bratislava, Turin, and Stockholm.
On the cover: German Chancellor Angela Merkel (L) looks on as Russian President Vladimir Putin (2-L) speaks toward
Prime Minister David Cameron (2-R) and U.S. President Barack Obama (R) as they attend a working meeting of G8 leaders
during the G8 summit at Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, Britain, June 18, 2013. STEFAN ROUSSEAU/POOL/epa/Corbis
1
Joerg Forbrig is transatlantic fellow for Central and Eastern Europe, and director of the Fund for Belarus Democracy, at
The German Marshall Fund of the United States in Berlin.
The Issue
Policy Priorities
Few in Europe or
the United States
have taken a closer
look at the potential
new contours of the
European order.
Introduction
M
Western policy and
public debate is yet
to fully appreciate
the extent and likely
longevity of the Russian
challenge.
1
As a recent poll by the Pew Research Center found only 38
percent of Germans, 40 percent of Italians, 47 percent of French,
48 percent of Poles and Spaniards, and 49 percent of British
supported the use of military force by their country to defend a
NATO ally that finds itself attacked by Russia; see Pew Research
Center, NATO Publics Blame Russia for Ukrainian Crisis, but
Reluctant to Provide Military Aid, June 2015.
Seven decades
of expanding and
deepening Western
integration ... resulted
in what is the singlemost advanced
model of international
cooperation seen to
date.
N
The fact that the
strength and survival of
Putins regime in Russia
is now fully dependent
on confronting the West
effectively precludes
any positive scenario
for their mutual
relationship.
10
11
In order to withstand
Russias assault on
the West, it will be
critical for the United
States and its European
allies to fortify their
cohesiveness.
12
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