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Simulations
Jeremy Daily
Jackson Hole Scientific Investigations
www.jhscientific.com
Walking Speed
4.10
3.90
3.70
Speed (mph)
3.50
3.30
Walking Speed
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
1
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Sample Number
Walking Speed
4.50
4.00
3.50
Speed (mph)
3.00
2.50
Walking Speed
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1
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Sample Number
Statistical Deception
Graphs are skewed to show some bias
Look carefully at the labels and axes
Look at the number of samples (the larger
the better)
If no variation is mentioned, be skeptical
The biggest culprit
BIASED SAMPLING!!!
Coin Toss
Flip a coin ten times and count the number
of heads
Construct a table of results
Count
Number 0 1
of heads
10
Binomial Distribution
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
4
5
6
Number of Heads
10
Cumulative Probability
Gives probability of something being lower than x.
Cummulative Mass Function of Binomial Distribution, n = 10
1
Cummulative Probability
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
4
5
6
Number of Heads
10
Probability
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
8
10
12
Number of Heads
14
16
18
20
Probability
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Number of Heads
70
80
90
100
Probability
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
30
35
40
45
50
55
Number of Heads
60
65
70
Normal Distribution
As n increases the binomial distribution
approaches the Gaussian or normal distribution
pdf ( x) =
1
2
( x )2 / 4 2
Other Distributions
Lognormal
Raleigh
Uniform
Triangular
Poisson's
Weibul
Simulations
Random number generators are the core
of simulation.
Coin and die tossing is a form of random
number generation
Computers can do may iterations quickly.
Example for traffic crash reconstruction
Combined Speed
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
60.5
61
61.5
62
62.5
63
Combined Speed (mph)
63.5
64
CDF
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
61
61.5
62
62.5
63
Combined Speed (mph)
63.5
64
64.5