System Dynamics - Model - The Rework Cycle

ESD.
36 System Project Management

+
Lecture 7
The Rework Cycle

Instructor(s)
Dr. James Lyneis
Copyright 2012 James M Lyneis.
Todays Agenda
Overview: Causes of Project Dynamics
The Rework Cycle
Integrating Tools in Project Planning
Simple Model of Project Dynamics, Pt. 1
Typical Behavior Modes on a Project
Project
Staffing
Productivity
(Normalised)
2
Typical
Plan
Typical
Plan
Time
Time
2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved. This content is excluded from our
Creative Commons license. For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/fairuse.
Drivers of Project Dynamics
The rework cycle

Feedback effects
Negative, controlling
Positive, re-enforcing, often vicious
circles
Knock-on or domino effects within or

between work phases
Knock-on or domino effects between

projects
4
Todays Agenda
The Rework Cycle
Network Diagram for NMM Case

(from 2010 Homework #1)
i,
Diesel
Dev
c,
Diesel
Specs
d, Elec
Drive
Specs
a, Start
n,
Diesel
Delivery
j, Elec
Drive
Dev
b, Req
o,
Integra
tion
k,
Chassis
Design
e,
Layout
w,
Road
Test
m,
Internal
Fittings
y, Finish
t,
PowerVehicle
Integ
l, Body
Design
s, Body/
Chassis
Prototype
f,
Electronics
Design
p,
Electronics
Delivery
g, Soft
ware
Specs
r,
Charging
Assembly
U, Final
Assembly
v,
Dynamo
Lab Test
x, Car
Show
Setup
q,
Electronics
Software
Integ
h, Soft
ware
Dev
The Network View of a Program

Task Accomplishment
Task Accomplishment Task X
Productivity
Staff
Work Done
Work to Do
Work Being
Accomplished
Productivity
Staff
Work Done
Work to Do
i,
Diesel
Dev
c,
Diesel
Specs
d, Elec
Drive
Specs
a, Start
o,
Integra
tion
k,
Chassis
Design
e,
Layout
r,
Charging
Assembly
w,
Road
Test
m,
Internal
Fittings
y, Finish
t,
PowerVehicle
Integ
l, Body
Design
s, Body/
Chassis
Prototype
f,
Electronics
Design
p,
Electronics
Delivery
g, Soft
ware
Specs
Two stocks and one flow

subsumed within each
task of network diagram
n,
Diesel
Delivery
j, Elec
Drive
Dev
b, Req
Work Being
Accomplished
U, Final
Assembly
v,
Dynamo
Lab Test
x, Car
Show
Setup
q,
Electronics
Software
Integ
h, Soft
ware
Dev
Aggregate Model of Network View
Productivity
Staff
Work Backlogs and Flow
Work to
Do
1,000 Tasks
100 Tasks/Month
Work to Do
Work Being
Accomplished
Work Done
Initial Work
to Do
500 Tasks
50 Tasks/Month
Work Being
Accomplished
0 Tasks
0 Tasks/Month
0
Initial Work to Do = 1000 tasks

Productivity = 1 task/mo/person
Staff = 40 people
Work Done
10
15
Work to Do : Traditional View

Work Done : Traditional View
Work Being Accomplished : Traditional View
20 25 30
Time (Month)
35
40
45
50
Tasks
Tasks
Tasks/Month
Data Often Tell a More Complex Story

Productivity
Work to Do
Staff
Work Being
Accomplished
Work Done
PRODUCTIVITY?
OR...
10
Effort is being spent elsewhere
Productivity
Staff
Work to Do
WorkzBeing
Accomplished
Fraction Correct
and Complete (0-1: fraction
not to be
reworked)
y
Work
Done
Rework
Creation
Rework
Execution
Rework
Sep 11, 2007
11
Definitions
Productivity -Work accomplished per hour of effort,
regardless of completeness or correctness
Fraction Correct & Complete -Fraction of work just accomplished that will
not need rework. Work Quality
Later we will revisit the iron triangle to
consider delivered quality.
12
The Rework Cycle

Effort
Applied
Productivity
Original
Work to Do
Rework to
Do
Fraction Correct
and Complete
-
Progress
Rework
Generation
Progressx
Rew
ork
Rework
Discovery
-
Work Done
Undiscovered
Rework
Delay!
TimeintoDiscovering
Discover Rework
Delay
Rework
13
Adding Rework Delays Completion
Work Done
Undiscovered Rework
1,000
60
No Rework
45
With
Rework
500
250
Tasks
Tasks
750
30
15
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
Time (Month)
Work Done : Traditional With Rework
Work Done : Traditional View
35
40
45
50
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
Time (Month)
35
40
45
50
Undiscovered Rework : Traditional With Rework
14
So, What Happens on Projects?
Staff
Effort
on Initial
Work
Effort on
Rework
TIME
15
Rework creates and extended

staffing tail
Simulated
Actual
800.
Work Assignments of Staff to...
800.
Disguised results from
actual aerospace
project
600.
Total
600.
Approximate
Original
Plan
Staffing
experiences an
extended tail
400.
400.
Rework
200.
Original
Work
200.
0
0
Year
12
15
18
21
12
15
18
21
17
2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved. This
content is excluded from our Creative Commons license.
For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/fairuse.
16
or a second staffing peak
Work Assignments of Staff to...
Program Staff, Simulated vs. Data (Equivalent Staff)

Simulated
Actual
Original Plan
Original Work
400.
Rework
400.

actual vehicle project

actual vehicle project
300.
300.
A second
staffing peak
200.
200.
100.
Original
Work
Rework
100.
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
TIME
Year 5
Year 6
Year 1
20
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
TIME
Year 5
Year 6
2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved. This
content is excluded from our Creative Commons license.
For more information, see http://ocw.mit.edu/fairuse.
17
Consequences of Undiscovered
Rework
Effort
Applied
Productivity
Progress
Fraction Correct
and Complete
-
Rework
Generation
Original
Work to Do
Work Done
Progressx
Rework to
Do
Rework
Discovery
Rework
Undiscovered
Rework
1.Overestimates
of Progress
18
Additional Metrics
(Used in Model)
Fraction Reported to be Complete =
(Work Done + Undiscovered Rework) /
Initial Work to Do
Fraction of Work Really Complete =
(Work Done) / Initial Work to Do
19
Undiscovered rework generates

progress-measuring errors
Progress
1
Reported
0.75
Fraction
Really
0.5
Undiscovered
Rework
0.25
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
Time (Month)
35
40
45
50
Fraction Reported Complete : Traditional With Rework3

Fraction Really Complete : Traditional With Rework3
20
Rework Cycle Creates

The Lost-Year...
Design Progress (Percent Complete)
100.
Simulated
75.
The Lost Year
50.
Real Progress
25.
0.
Year 1
Year 2 Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Time
Source: Ken Cooper
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Disguised results
from actual
aerospace project
21
and the 90% Syndrome ---
Design Progress (Percent Complete)

100.
Simulated
75.
Disguised results
from actual
aerospace project
50.
25.
0.
1/85 1
Year
1/89
Year2
1/91 3
Year
1/934
Year
1/955
Year
1/976
Year
1/997 Year
1/01 8
Year
TIME
22
Survey Question 1
Does your organization measure rework?

1.
Yes, we keep data on how much rework is
being discovered
2.
Yes, we keep data on how much work
being done is rework (vs original work)
3.
Yes, both 1 and 2
4.
No, we do not keep data on rework being
discovered
23
Survey Question 2
Does your organization recognize rework in

executing the project?
1.
Yes, by adjusting progress estimates to
reflect expected remaining undiscovered
rework
2.
Yes, by building rework tasks into the
project graph
3.
Both 1 and 2
4.
No, we only react as rework is discovered
24
Consequences of
Undiscovered Rework
Effort
Applied
Productivity
Progress
Fraction Correct
and Complete
-
Rework
Generation
Original
Work to Do
Work Done
Progressx
Rework to
Do
Rework
Discovery
Rework
Undiscovered
Rework
2. Build
Errors Into
Downstream
Work
1. Overestimates
of Progress
25
Survey Question 3
How significant is the Errors on Errors

feedback on typical projects in your
organization?
1. Very
2. Modest
3. Weak
4. None
26
Units of Work SD Model
Tasks -- ideally, of uniform size and

fungible
In actual applications, might use things like:
Drawings, work packages, lines of code,

Tons of concrete, feet of steel, feet of wiring, ...
Parts designed
Sometimes %
Can represent precedence constraints

27
Quality
Need to distinguish between:

Instantaneous work quality (fraction
correct and complete)
Delivered quality remaining bugs
(undiscovered rework) when product
shipped
Product capabilities, fit and finish (a
part of scope in model)
28
Fraction Correct and Complete
Represents unplanned iterations;

planned iterations are separate tasks
Sources of errors many fold:
Mistakes from inexperience, fatigue,

Technical complexity/uncertainty
Work done correctly but ultimately
needing rework because it builds on
Incorrect prior work

Assumptions about technology or customer
requirements which prove incorrect
29
Two Types of Iteration
Planned Iteration
Caused by needs to get it

right the first time.
We know where these
iterations occur, but not
necessarily how much.
Planned iterations should be
facilitated by good design
methods, tools, and
coordination.
Separate tasks in the rework

cycle
Unplanned Iteration
Caused by errors and/or

unforeseen problems.
We generally cannot predict
which unplanned iterations
will occur.
Unplanned iterations should
be minimized using risk
management methods.
Quality problems in the

rework cycle
30
Qualitative Insights
Undiscovered Rework is one of the most important
single factors driving schedule and budget overruns
Most management reporting systems overestimate
real progress and discourage reporting of rework
31
Lessons: Recognize the rework

cycle and minimize its consequences
Productivity
Original
Work to Do
Rework to
Do
Progress
Rework
Generation
Progressx
Rew
ork
Rework
Discovery
-
Reduce
Increase
Effort
Applied
Fraction
Quality
Correct and
Complete
Undiscovered
Rework
DelaytoinDiscover
Discovering
Rework
Time
Rework
Work Done
Build Errors
Into
Downstream
Work
Overestimates
of Progress
Be
Realistic
32
Dynamics of Project
Performance
The rework cycle
Fraction correct and complete

Undiscovered rework
Feedback effects on productivity and fraction

correct (Next class)
Positive, re-enforcing, often vicious circles
Knock-on effects between work phases (Next)
Availability and quality of work products

Progress to discover upstream rework
33
Todays Agenda
Causes of Project Dynamics
The Rework Cycle
34
Fundamental Approaches
Network-based (graph theory) methods
Matrix-based methods
CPM, PERT, .
Task is a node or an arc
DSM - Tasks are columns and rows

Interrelationships are off-diagonal entries
Feedback loops, causal relationships

Stocks and flows simulation
Tasks that are done or waiting to be done
are stocks amount of work
Doing project work causes a flow
What have we learned thus far?
x x
xx
x x
x x
x x
System Dynamics
W ORK
TO BE
DONE
PEO PLE
PRODUCTIVITY
W ORK
BEING DONE
W ORK
DONE
35
+
1
Network View of CityCar Project
23
13
12
15
11
10
14
17
16
18
22
24
19
21
27
20
28
25
26
30
31
29
32
33
34
35
37
36
39
38
40

(from 2010 Homework #1)
i,
Diesel
Dev
c,
Diesel
Specs
d, Elec
Drive
Specs
a, Start
n,
Diesel
Delivery
j, Elec
Drive
Dev
b, Req
o,
Integra
tion
k,
Chassis
Design
e,
Layout
r,
Charging
Assembly
w,
Road
Test
m,
Internal
Fittings
y, Finish
t,
PowerVehicle
Integ
l, Body
Design
s, Body/
Chassis
Prototype
f,
Electronics
Design
p,
Electronics
Delivery
g, Soft
ware
Specs
Note: Diesel, Elec Drive,

and Software do not
show separate design
and build tasks.
U, Final
Assembly
v,
Dynamo
Lab Test
x, Car
Show
Setup
q,
Electronics
Software
Integ
h, Soft
ware
Dev
37
Organizing the Tasks by Metatask
Requirements
Definition
i,
Diesel
Dev
c,
Diesel
Specs
Body &
Chassis
Design
k,
Chassis
Design
b, Req
e,
Layout
g, Soft
ware
Specs
n,
Diesel
Delivery
Vehicle & Powertrain Integration
j, Elec
Drive
Dev
d, Elec
Drive
Specs
a, Start
Diesel & Electric

Drive Design
s, Body/
Chassis
Prototype
l, Body
Design
f,
Electronics
Design
o,
Integra
tion
Testing &
Completion
r,
Charging
Assembly
t,
PowerVehicle
Integ
w,
Road
Test
U, Final
Assembly
y, Finish
v,
Dynamo
Lab Test
m,
Internal
Fittings
x, Car
Show
Setup
p,
Electronics
Delivery
Final Assembly
h,
Software
Dev
q,
Electronics
Software
Integ
Electronics &
Software
Design
38
Gantt Chart with Metatasks Shown

Note: dates approximate; JML estimates of Diesel & Electric, Software Design/Build Split
2010
Jan Feb
Requirements Definition
a
b
c
d
g
Start
Requirements
Diesel Specs
Elec Drive Specs
Software Specs
1/1/10
60
1/1/10
3/25/10
30
3/25/10
5/6/10
30
3/26/10
5/6/10
72
3/26/10
7/5/10
40
3/26/10
6/1/10
6/2/10 10/21/10
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Requirements
Design
Build/Test
Coupled
Body & Chassis

e
k
l
s
Layout
Chassis Design
Body Design
Body Chassis Prototype
102
90
6/2/10
10/5/10
48 10/22/10 12/28/10
k,l
Electronics & Software

f
h
p
q
Electronics Design
Software Dev
Electronics Delivery
Electronics Software Int
90
5/7/10
150
9/10/10
72
9/9/10 b,c,d
4/7/11
9/10/10 12/20/10
g,f
g,f
30
4/8/11
5/19/11
h,p
180
5/7/10
1/13/11
90
5/7/10
9/9/10
12
1/14/11
1/31/11
60
2/1/11
4/25/11
j,n
12
4/26/11
5/11/11
j,o
60
5/20/11
8/11/11 q,r,s
Diesel & Electric Drive

i
j
n
Diesel Dev
Elec Drive Dev
Diesel Delivery & Check
Vehicle & Power Train Int
o
r
t
Integration
Charging Assembly
Power Vehicle Int
Final Assembly
m
u
Internal Fittings
Final Assembly
48 10/22/10 12/28/10
k,l
30
8/12/11
9/22/11
m,t
30
9/23/11
11/3/11
72
11/4/11
2/13/12
45
11/4/11
1/5/12
Testing & Completion

v
w
x
y
Dynamo Lab Test

Road Test
Car Show Setup
Finish
2/13/12
39
What Messages Come From DSM and

SD regarding the network/Gantt plan?
DSM ?
SD ?
How/when is rework discovered?

40
DSM Identifies Coupled Tasks & Areas of

Unplanned Iterations (from Homework #2)
Requirements
Definition
i,
Diesel
Dev
c,
Diesel
Specs
Body &
Chassis
Design
k,
Chassis
Design
b, Req
e,
Layout
g, Soft
ware
Specs
n,
Diesel
Delivery
Vehicle & Powertrain Integration
j, Elec
Drive
Dev
d, Elec
Drive
Specs
a, Start
Diesel & Electric

Drive Design
s, Body/
Chassis
Prototype
l, Body
Design
f,
Electronics
Design
o,
Integra
tion
Testing &
Completion
r,
Charging
Assembly
t,
PowerVehicle
Integ
w,
Road
Test
U, Final
Assembly
y, Finish
v,
Dynamo
Lab Test
m,
Internal
Fittings
x, Car
Show
Setup
p,
Electronics
Delivery
Final Assembly
h,
Software
Dev
q,
Electronics
Software
Integ
Electronics &
Software
Design
Coupled Tasks Possible

planned Iterations (in design)
Unplanned Iterations (why not
back to design phase?)
41
Gantt Chart With Coupled Tasks Shown

2010
Jan Feb
Requirements Definition
a
b
Start
Requirements
60
1/1/10
3/25/10
Diesel Specs
30
3/25/10
5/6/10
d
g
Elec Drive Specs

Software Specs
30
3/26/10
5/6/10
72
3/26/10
7/5/10
40
3/26/10
6/1/10
6/2/10 10/21/10
1/1/10
Body & Chassis

e
Layout
k
l
Chassis Design
Body Design
Body Chassis Prototype
102
90
6/2/10
10/5/10
48 10/22/10 12/28/10
k,l
Electronics & Software

f
h
Electronics Design
Software Dev
p
q
90
5/7/10
150
9/10/10
72
9/9/10 b,c,d
4/7/11
9/10/10 12/20/10
g,f
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Requirements
Design
Build/Test
Coupled
2011
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May June July
Aug Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Observation/
Question: no
coupling
between major
design phases?
g,f
30
4/8/11
5/19/11
h,p
180
5/7/10
1/13/11
90
5/7/10
9/9/10
12
1/14/11
1/31/11
60
2/1/11
4/25/11
j,n
12
4/26/11
5/11/11
j,o
60
5/20/11
8/11/11 q,r,s
Diesel & Electric Drive

i
j
Diesel Dev
Elec Drive Dev
Diesel Delivery & Check

Vehicle & Power Train Int
o
r
t
Integration
Charging Assembly
Power Vehicle Int
Final Assembly
m
u
Internal Fittings
Final Assembly
48 10/22/10 12/28/10
k,l
30
8/12/11
9/22/11
m,t
30
9/23/11
11/3/11
72
11/4/11
2/13/12
45
11/4/11
1/5/12
Testing & Completion

v
w
x
y
Dynamo Lab Test

Road Test
Car Show Setup
Finish
2/13/12
42
Network Diagram With Build Steps Added and

Major Work Phases Highlighted
Requirements
i,
Diesel
Dev
c,
Diesel
Specs
i*,
Diesel
Build
n,
Diesel
Delivery
j, Elec
Drive
Dev
j*, Elec
Drive
Build
d, Elec
Drive
Specs
a, Start
Build/Test
Design
k,
Chassis
Design
b, Req
e,
Layout
s, Body/
Chassis
Prototype
l, Body
Design
g, Soft
ware
Specs
o,
Integra
tion
r,
Charging
Assembly
t,
PowerVehicle
Integ
U, Final
Assembly
f*,
Electronics
"Build"
p,
Electronics
Delivery
y, Finish
v,
Dynamo
Lab Test
m,
Internal
Fittings
f,
Electronics
Design
w,
Road
Test
x, Car
Show
Setup
q,
Electronics
Software
Integ
h*,
Software
"Build"
h,
Software
Dev
43
In an SD Model, Each Phase of Work

Could Be Represented by a Rework Cycle
Staff
Staff on
Original Work
Staff on Rework
Productivity
Original Work Being
Accomplishmed
<Initial Work to
Do>
Rework Being
Accomplishmed
Original Work Done Correctly

Original
Work to Do
Rework Generation on
Original Work
Work Done
Fraction Correct
and Complete
Rework to Do
Rework
Generation on
Rework
Undiscovered
Rework
Rework
Discovery
44
Expanded to Three Phases
Design
Requirements
Requriements Staff
Design Staff
Rqmnts Staff on
Original Work
Rqmnts Staff on
Rework
Rqmnts Original Work
Being Accomplishmed
Requirements
Fraction Correct and
Complete
Rqmnts Rework
Generation on Original
Work
Rqmnts
Rework to Do
Rqmnts Rework
Generation on
Rework
Rqments
Undiscovered
Rework
Rqmnts Rework
Discovery
Assumptions:
Scope = 100 Tasks

Staff = 4,
Productivity = 2 tasks/month/person
Duration = 12.5 months
Design Fraction
Correct and
Complete
Build/Test Staff
on Rework
Build/Test Productivity
Design Original Work
Being Accomplishmed
<Build/Test Initial
Work to Do>
Rqments
Work Done
Build/Test Staff on
Original Work
Design Staff on
Rework
Design Productivity
Rqmnts Rework
Being
Accomplishmed
Rqmnts Original Work Done Correctly

Rqmnts
Original
Work to Do
Build/Test Staff
Design Staff on
Original Work
Requirements Productivity
<Build/Test Initial
Work to Do>
Build/Test
Design Rework
Being
Accomplishmed
Build/test Original
Work Being
Accomplishmed
Build/Test Rework
Being Accomplishmed
Design Original Work Done Correctly

<Build/Test Initial
Work to Do>
Design
Original
Work to Do
Design Rework
Work
Build/Test Original Work Done Correctly

Build/Test
Original
Work to Do
Build/Test Rework
Work
Design Work
Done
Design
Rework to Do
Design Rework
Generation on
Rework
Design
Undiscovered
Rework
Design Rework
Discovery
Scope = 1000 tasks

Staff = 20
Duration = 12.5 months
Build/Test Fraction
Correct and Complete
Build/Test
Work Done
Build/Test
Rework to Do
Build/Test Rework
Generation on Rework
Build/Test
Undiscovered
Rework
Build/Test Rework
Discovery
Scope = 1000 tasks

Staff = 40
Duration = 25 months
45
Simulation of project assuming

no rework
Project Staff
2,000
60
1,500
45
Design
1,000
People
Task
Work Done
Total
Build/Test
Design
30
15
500
Build/Test
Requirements
Requirements
0
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
Requirements Work Done : Three P Four Stock No Rework Discrete Start

Design Work Done : Three P Four Stock No Rework Discrete Start
"Build/Test Work Done" : Three P Four Stock No Rework Discrete Start
42
48
54
60
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
42
48
54
60
Requirements Staff : Three P Four Stock No Rework Discrete Start

Design Staff : Three P Four Stock No Rework Discrete Start
"Build/Test Staff" : Three P Four Stock No Rework Discrete Start
Project Staff : Three P Four Stock No Rework Discrete Start
46
1.
2.
3.
Sources of Rework -- Categories

Classical Quality or design misexecution.
Technical complexity/uncertainty;
customer uncertainty.
Work done correctly but ultimately
needing rework because it builds on
47
Classical Quality
There are two (or more) important sources of these

errors
People factors such as fatigue, inexperience, skill mismatches,

etc.
Coupled tasks that require shared information but which are done
independently
Organizational size & complexity?
These types of errors can in theory be discovered

by further design work, such as doing
downstream design work, QA, design reviews,
planned iteration, etc.
48
Technical complexity/uncertainty;
customer uncertainty.
Technical: novelty of the project
Customer: Same logic might apply to novel/new
uncertain customer requirements? I.e., where say
a software product is being developed and the
customer may not know what they want until they
see it in practice.]
These types of errors can only be discovered

by doing build and test work. Fixing these
errors may just require redoing tasks, but may
also require new tasks to make the technology
work (e.g., and additional controller).
49
Knock-on Rework
Work done correctly but ultimately needing

rework because it builds on
Incorrect prior work

Assumptions about technology or customer requirements
which prove incorrect.
Exogenous changes in requirements, scope, etc.
These errors could be discovered in

design or build/test, depending on the
source.
50
How does Design Affect Build?
Design Staff
Build/Test Staff
Design Staff on
Original Work
Build/Test Staff on
Original Work
Design Staff on
Rework
Design Productivity
Being Accomplishmed
<Build/Test Initial
Work to Do>
Build/Test Staff
on Rework
Design Rework
Being
Accomplishmed
Build/test Original
Work Being
Accomplishmed
Build/Test Rework
Being Accomplishmed
<Build/Test Initial
Work to Do>

Design
Original
Work to Do
Design Fraction
Correct and
Complete
Design Rework
Work
Design
Rework to Do
Design Rework
Generation on
Rework
Design
Undiscovered
Rework
Build/Test
Original
Work to Do
Build/Test Rework
Work
Design Work
Done
Design Fraction
Reported Complete
Design Rework
Discovery
Design Fraction of Work
Done Correct and
Complete
Build/Test Fraction
Build/Test
Work Done
Build/Test
Rework to Do
Build/Test Rework
Build/Test Rework
Discovery
Build/Test
Undiscovered
Rework
Build/Test Fraction
Reported Complete
51
How is Design Rework Discovered?
Design Staff
Build/Test Staff
Design Staff on
Original Work
Build/Test Staff on
Original Work
Design Staff on
Rework
Design Productivity
Being Accomplishmed
<Build/Test Initial
Work to Do>
Build/Test Staff
on Rework
Design Rework
Being
Accomplishmed
Build/test Original
Work Being
Accomplishmed
Build/Test Rework
Being Accomplishmed
<Build/Test Initial
Work to Do>

Design
Original
Work to Do
Design Fraction
Correct and
Complete
Design Rework
Work
Design
Rework to Do
Design Rework
Generation on
Rework
Design
Undiscovered
Rework
Build/Test
Original
Work to Do
Build/Test Rework
Work
Design Work
Done
Design Fraction
Reported Complete
Design Rework
Discovery
Done Correct and
Complete
Build/Test Fraction
Build/Test
Work Done
Build/Test
Rework to Do
Build/Test Rework
Build/Test Rework
Discovery
Build/Test
Undiscovered
Rework
Build/Test Fraction
Reported Complete
52
Simulation Incorporating Rework and

Rework Discovery
Project Staff
1,000
80
750
60
Design
500
People
Task
Work Done
Build/Test
Total
40
Requirements
0
0
0
6
Design
20
Requirements
250
Build/Test
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
Requirements Work Done : Three Phase Four Stock V1

Design Work Done : Three Phase Four Stock V1
"Build/Test Work Done" : Three Phase Four Stock V1
42
48
54
60
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
42
48
54
60
Requirements Staff : Three Phase Four Stock V1

Design Staff : Three Phase Four Stock V1
"Build/Test Staff" : Three Phase Four Stock V1
Project Staff : Three Phase Four Stock V1
Notes: (1) Details of simulation do not correspond to NMM Case;

(2) so far, we do not represent project control actions and effects,
so staff/hours worked are constant.
53
Design Stocks
1,000
Original Work
Work Done
Task
750
500
Rework
250
Undiscovered
Rework
-0.0001
0
0
Design
Design
Design
Design
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
42
48
54
60
Original Work to Do : Three Phase Four Stock V1

Undiscovered Rework : Three Phase Four Stock V1
Rework to Do : Three Phase Four Stock V1
Work Done : Three Phase Four Stock V1
54
Progress and Rework Discovery
Design Fraction Complete
Fraction Design Rework Discovered
0.8
Original Reported
Work
Really
0.5
0
0
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
Design Fraction Original Work Complete : Three Phase Four Stock V1

Design Fraction Reported Complete : Three Phase Four Stock V1
Design Fraction Really Complete : Three Phase Four Stock V1
42
48
0.6
Fraction
Fraction
1.5
0.4
0.2
54
60
0
0
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
42
48
54
60
Fraction Design Rework Discovered : Three Phase Four Stock V1
Discovery
by design
Discovery
by build
55
Rework Increases Cost

and Delays Finish
With Rework
Without Rework
Cumulative Effort
Cumulative Effort
2,000
2,000
Total
Build/Test
1,000
Design
500
Person*Months
Person*Months
1,500
1,500
1,000
500
0
0
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
Cumulative Reqmnts Effort : Three Phase Four Stock V1

Cumulative Design Effort : Three Phase Four Stock V1
"Cumulative Build/Test Effort" : Three Phase Four Stock V1
Cumulative Effort : Three Phase Four Stock V1
42
48
54
60
Requirements
12
18
24
30
36
Time (Month)
42
48
54
60
Cumulative Reqmnts Effort : Three P Four Stock No Rework

Cumulative Design Effort : Three P Four Stock No Rework
"Cumulative Build/Test Effort" : Three P Four Stock No Rework
Cumulative Effort : Three P Four Stock No Rework
56
Revised Network/Gantt to reflect

rework discovery (by build, not design)
Insert some Rework Tasks in

Design, more in Build/Test
2010
Apr May June July
Aug Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May June July
Electronics & Software -- Original

f
Electronics Design
Software Dev
p
q
90
5/7/10
150
9/10/10
72
30
9/9/10 b,c,d
4/7/11
g,f
9/10/10 12/20/10
g,f
4/8/11
5/19/11
Electronics Design
Software Dev
72
30
90
5/7/10
150
9/10/10
9/9/10 b,c,d
4/7/11
9/10/10 12/20/10
4/8/11
5/19/11
Oct
Design
Build/Test
Coupled
Nov
Dec
Rework
h,p
Electronics & Software -- Rework Discovered in Build/Test

f
Aug Sept
g,f
g,f
h,p
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
57
Management Issues
Planned Iterations (vs dealing with unplanned

iterations later) How many iterations?
When to start build phases how much overlap with
design phases.
Factors to Consider:
Type of project (determines amount of rework discoverable

in design, amount of rework, number of tasks which must be
repeated for each iteration)
Relative cost of design vs build/test (determines the relative
cost of spending more in design)
More on these later in term

58
Role of Tools
SD:
DSM:
Evaluate the macro tradeoffs in terms of impact

on cost and schedule
Coming up with a good staffing plan
Determine where design iterations are needed and
how many tasks would need to be repeated per
iteration
Network:
Guide operational task planning and resource

scheduling
59
Dynamics of Project
Performance
The rework cycle
Fraction correct and complete

Undiscovered rework
Feedback effects on productivity and fraction

correct (Next class)
Positive, re-enforcing, often vicious circles
Knock-on effects between work phases
Availability and quality of work products

Progress to discover upstream rework
60
Knock-on Between Phases: A system dynamics

model usually represents several phases of work
Rework Discovery Effects
S o ftw a re
D e s ig n
S o ftw a re C o d e
and Test
S y s te m
E n g in e e rin g
Productivity and Fraction Correct Effects

(availability and quality of upstream work)
H a rd w a re
D e s ig n
Notes:
Suppliers might
be a phase
In te g ra te
and Test
H a rd w a re B u ild
and Test
61
Why Represent Separate Phases?

Correspond to gate reviews and deliverables
Different units of work (and therefore data)
Different types of labor
Disproportionate increase in costs of fixing
errors as move downstream
Address issues of overlap/concurrency
Opportunity to adjust plans, delay start,
between phases
62
Todays Agenda
The Rework Cycle
63
Hard tools force us to be more explicit, and

accurately simulate the consequences of our
models ...
Soft tools - behavior-overtime graphs

cause-effect
diagramming
mental simulation
Hard tools - computer models

computer
simulation
calibration to data
sensitivity and
what-if analyses
Tools for describing

dynamics
Tools for quantifying

dynamics
64
We will use two models
Simple rework cycle model with project

control feedbacks
HW#3 develop simple model without

feedbacks
Feedbacks added in class, given in HW#5
Full rework cycle model with two

phases of work
No project control feedback

Model given to you for HW#3 and HW#5
65
Development of Simple Project Model 1
Rework cycle model (HW#3)
Three stocks
Variable rework discovery time
Errors Build Errors Feedback
Project control & Side Effects (HW#5)
Work Intensity/Schedule Pressure & Haste

Makes Waste
Staffing & Experience Dilution
Slip Schedule
66
Two Views of the Rework Cycle
Complete Model
Fraction
Correct &
Complete
Simplified Version
Work Accomplishment
Progress
Original
Work to Do
Progressx
Rework to
Do
Rework
Discovery
Rework
Work Done
Work to Do
Rework Generation
Undiscovered
Rework
Work Done
Undiscovered
Rework
Rework Discovery
The simplified version assumes that

rework tasks require the same effort
as original tasks, and that it is not
important to distinguish between
original work and rework.
67
Simple Rework Cycle Model
Productivity
+
Potential Work Rate
Based on Staffing +
Levels
Minimum Time to
Finish a Task
Fraction Correct
and Complete
Normal Staff
+
+
+ Work Being
Accomplished
Maximum Work Rate

Based on Tasks
Available
Staff
+
+
+
Work to Do
Effort Expended
Work Done
Correctly
Rework Generation
Undiscovered
Rework
Work Done
Cumulative
Effort
Expended
Project Finished
+
- -
Fraction Complete
to Finish
Initial Work to
Do
<Initial Work to
Do>
<Rework Generation>
Rework Discovery
Time to Discover
Rework
Steps 1-4 of
Homework #3
Rate of Doing Work
Cumulative
Work Done
<Project Finished>
<Work Done Correctly>
68
Rework Discovery Depends on Progress
69
Complete Simple Model 1
Errors on
Errors
Feedback
Productivity
Potential Work Rate

Based on Staff
Minimum Time to
Finish a Task
Normal Fraction
Maximum Work Rate

Based on Tasks
Available
Fraction Correct
and Complete
Normal Staff
Staff
Work Being
Accomplished
Work Done
Correctly
Effort Expended
Sensitivity of Fraction
Correct to Undiscovered
Rework
Effect of Undiscovered
Rework on Fraction
Correct
Maximum Effect of
Undiscovered Rework on
Fraction Correct
Work to Do
Rework Generation
Undiscovered
Rework
Cumulative
Effort
Expended
Project Finished
Work Done
Fraction Complete
to Finish
Initial Work to
Do
<Initial Work to
Do>
Rework Discovery
<Project Finished>
Delay in
Discovering Rework
Fraction of Work
Believed Done Correct
and Complete
This reflects the average delay in

discovering discoverable rework ,
such as from QA activities or
downstream work .
Work Believed to
Be Done
Fraction of Rework Discovered
<Work Done>
This reflects the fraction of

undiscovered rework that is
discoverable at any point in the project
based on the activities tak ing place.
<Rework Generation>
Rate of Doing Work
Fraction Really
Complete
Fraction Reported
Complete
Cumulative
Work Done
<Work Done Correctly>
<Initial Work to Do>
70
Effect of Undiscovered Rework on

Fraction Correct:
Effect of Undiscovered Rework on
Fraction
Correct
Graph
Lookup - Table
for Effect of Prior Work Quality on Quality
1
0
0
Average
Fraction
of Work
Work Quality
Believed
Done Correct and Complete
Note: The effect of undiscovered rework on fraction correct is assumed to be

proportional -- an error in past work creates an error in current work. Given that in this
simple model fraction correct represents several effects of work errors, this strong
relationship may be reasonable.
71
Work Flows & Staffing in Simple

Two Phase Model
Design
Build/Test
Project Staff
<Staff On
Review>
End Design
Rampup
Start Design
Rampup
Fraction Design
Complete to Start Build
<TIME STEP>
Rampup
Design Staff
Total
Design Startup
<Time>
Build/Test
Planned Staff
Duration of Build
Rampup
Time to Start
Build Ramp Up
Design Staff
Design
Planned Staff
Design Fraction of
Effort to Rework
<Time>
Build/Test
Startup
Build/Test Staff
Build/Test Fraction
of Effort to Rework
Design Staff on
Rework
Design Staff on
Original Work Design Relative Effort
Required for Rework
Design
Indicated Staff
Design Maximum Work
Rate Based on Rework
Tasks Available
<Design
Productivity>

Being Accomplishmed
Design Minimum
Time to Finish a Task
Design Initial
Work to Do
Normal Design
Fraction Correct
and Complete
Design Effect of
Fraction Correct
Design Fraction
Reported Complete
<Initial Build/Test
Work to Do>
Design Rework
Generation on
Rework
<Design Rework
Discovered By
Design>
<Design Initial
Work to Do>
Normal Build/Test
Complete
Design Rework
Discovery
Build/Test
Build/Test Rework Work Done
Done Correctly
Build/Test
Build/Test Rework Undiscovered
Generation on Rework Rework
<Initial Build/Test
Work to Do>
Build/Test Rework
Discovery
Build/Test Delay in
Discovering Rework
Sensitivity of Build/Test
Fraction Correct to Design
Undiscovered Rework
<Design
Rework to Do>
Switch to Include
Rework
Project Finished
Switch
Build/Test Work
Believed to Be Done
<Initial Build/Test
Work to Do>

Done Correct and
Complete
<Design Remaining
Rework Discovered by
Build>
Build/Test Rework
Being Accomplishmed
Build/Test Rework
Work
Build/Test Effect of Design

Undiscovered Rework On
Fraction Correct
Design Work
Believed to Be Done
<Build/Test
Productivity>
Build/Test Original
Work Done Correctly
Build/Test
Original
Work to Do
Build/Test Fraction
<Design Rework
Discovered By Build>
<Fraction Rework
Being Discovered>
Build/Test Original
Work Being
Accomplishmed
Build/Test
Rework to Do
Design
Undiscovered
Rework
Staff on Rework
Build/Test Priority
to Original Work
Build/Test
Productivity on
Rework
Build/Test Minimum
Design Work
Design Rework
Done
Done Correctly
Design
Rework to Do
Sensitivity of Design
Undiscovered Rework
Maximum Sensitivity of
Design Fraction Correct to
Design Undiscovered Rework
Design Rework
Being
Accomplishmed
Design Rework
Work
<Design Delay in
Discovering Rework>
<Maximum Effect of
Fraction Correct>
Build/Test Staff on
Original Work
Build/Test Maximum Work

Rate Based on Original
Work Tasks Available
Design Original
Work Done Correctly
Design
Original
Work to Do
Design Fraction
Correct and
Complete

Tasks Available
Design
Productivity on
Rework
Design Maximum Work

Build/Test Relative
Effort Required for
Rework
Build/Test
Indicated Staff
Design Priority to
Original Work
Maximum Effect of
Fraction Correct
Build/Test Fraction of Work

Believed Done Correct and
Complete
Fraction Correct to Build
Undiscovered Rework
<Effect of Build Progress

on Build/Test Rework
Discovery>
Four Stock
Rework Cycle
Build/Test Fraction
Reported Complete
Build/Test Effect of Build

Fraction Correct
<Design Effect of Build

Work on Rework
Discovery>
Build/Test FCC to Design
Undiscovered Rework
<Fraction Build/Test
Rework Discovered>
Build/Test Fraction Correct to
Build Undiscovered Rework
<Switch to
Include Rework>
<Build/Test
Rework to Do>
72
Design Phase of Work (Build/Test Similar)

Design
Staff
Project Staff
<Staff On
Review>
End Design
Rampup
Start Design
Rampup
Allocation
of Staff
Based on
Backlogs,
etc.
Fraction Design
Rampup
Design Staff
Total
Design Startup
<Time>
Design Staff
Design
Planned Staff
Design Fraction of
Effort to Rework
Design Staff on
Rework
Design Staff on
Required for Rework
Design
Indicated Staff
Design Maximum Work
Tasks Available
Design Maximum Work
<Design
Productivity>

Being Accomplishmed
Design Minimum
Design Initial
Work to Do
Normal Design
Fraction Correct
and Complete
Errors
Create
Errors
Feedback
Design Effect of
Fraction Correct
Design Rework
Done Correctly
Design
Rework to Do
Design Rework
Generation on
Rework
<Design Rework
Discovered By
Design>
Design Work
Done
<Design Initial
Work to Do>
Design
Undiscovered
Rework
Design Rework
Discovery
Design Work
Believed to Be Done

Done Correct and
Complete
<Design Remaining
Build>
<Design Rework
Undiscovered Rework
Design Fraction
Reported Complete
Design Rework
Work
<Design Delay in
Discovering Rework>
<Maximum Effect of
Fraction Correct>
Design Rework
Being
Accomplishmed
Design Original
Work Done Correctly
Design
Original
Work to Do
Design Fraction
Correct and
Complete
Design Priority to
Original Work
Design
Productivity on
Rework
Rework
Discovery
<Design
Rework to Do>
Switch to Include
Rework
<Fraction Rework
Being Discovered>
73
Phase Interconnections
Design
Build/Test
Design
Rework on
Build/Test
Productivity
Project Staff
<Staff On
Review>
End Design
Rampup
Start Design
Rampup
Fraction Design
<TIME STEP>
Rampup
Design Staff
Total
Design Startup
<Time>
Build/Test
Planned Staff
Duration of Build
Rampup
Time to Start
Build Ramp Up
Design Staff
Design
Planned Staff
Design Fraction of
Effort to Rework
<Time>
Build/Test
Startup
Build/Test Staff
Build/Test Fraction
of Effort to Rework
Design Staff on
Rework
Design Staff on
Required for Rework
Design
Indicated Staff
Design Maximum Work
Tasks Available
<Design
Productivity>

Being Accomplishmed
Design Minimum
Design Initial
Work to Do
Normal Design
Fraction Correct
and Complete
Design Effect of
Fraction Correct
Design Fraction
Reported Complete
<Initial Build/Test
Work to Do>
Design Rework
Generation on
Rework
<Design Rework
Discovered By
Design>
<Design Initial
Work to Do>
Normal Build/Test
Complete
Design Rework
Discovery
Build/Test
Build/Test Rework Work Done
Done Correctly
Build/Test
Build/Test Rework Undiscovered
Generation on Rework Rework
<Design
Rework to Do>
Build/Test
Progress On
Design Rework
Discovery
<Initial Build/Test
Work to Do>
Build/Test Rework
Discovery
Build/Test Delay in
Discovering Rework
Undiscovered Rework
Switch to Include
Rework
Project Finished
Switch
Build/Test Work
Believed to Be Done
<Initial Build/Test
Work to Do>

Done Correct and
Complete
<Design Remaining
Build>
Build/Test Rework
Being Accomplishmed
Build/Test Rework
Work
Build/Test Effect of Design

Undiscovered Rework On
Fraction Correct
Design Work
Believed to Be Done
<Build/Test
Productivity>
Build/Test Original
Work Done Correctly
Build/Test
Original
Work to Do
Build/Test Fraction
<Design Rework
<Fraction Rework
Being Discovered>
Build/Test Original
Work Being
Accomplishmed
Build/Test
Rework to Do
Design
Undiscovered
Rework
Staff on Rework
Build/Test Priority
to Original Work
Build/Test
Productivity on
Rework
Build/Test Minimum
Design Work
Design Rework
Done
Done Correctly
Design
Rework to Do
Undiscovered Rework
Design Rework
Being
Accomplishmed
Design Rework
Work
<Design Delay in
Discovering Rework>
<Maximum Effect of
Fraction Correct>
Build/Test Staff on
Original Work

Design Original
Work Done Correctly
Design
Original
Work to Do
Design Fraction
Correct and
Complete

Tasks Available
Design
Productivity on
Rework
Design Maximum Work

Build/Test Relative
Effort Required for
Rework
Build/Test
Indicated Staff
Design Priority to
Original Work
Maximum Effect of
Fraction Correct
Build/Test Fraction
Reported Complete
Build/Test Effect of Build

Fraction Correct
Build/Test Fraction of Work
Believed Done Correct and
Complete
<Design Effect of Build

Work on Rework
Discovery>
Design Errors
(Rework) on
Build/Test Fraction
Correct
Build/Test FCC to Design
Undiscovered Rework
<Fraction Build/Test
Rework Discovered>
Fraction Correct to Build
Undiscovered Rework
<Effect of Build Progress

on Build/Test Rework
Discovery>
Build/Test Fraction Correct to
Build Undiscovered Rework
<Switch to
Include Rework>
<Build/Test
Rework to Do>
74
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Fall 2012
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System Dynamics - Model - The Rework Cycle

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ESD.

36 System Project Management

The Rework Cycle

Dr. James Lyneis

Copyright 2012 James M Lyneis.

Overview: Causes of Project Dynamics

The Rework Cycle

Integrating Tools in Project Planning

Simple Model of Project Dynamics, Pt. 1

Typical Behavior Modes on a Project

Drivers of Project Dynamics

The rework cycle

Knock-on or domino effects within or

Knock-on or domino effects between

Overview: Causes of Project Dynamics

The Rework Cycle

Integrating Tools in Project Planning

Simple Model of Project Dynamics, Pt. 1

Network Diagram for NMM Case

The Network View of a Program

Network Diagram for NMM Case

Two stocks and one flow

Aggregate Model of Network View

Work Backlogs and Flow

Initial Work to Do = 1000 tasks

Work to Do : Traditional View

Data Often Tell a More Complex Story

Effort is being spent elsewhere

Sep 11, 2007

The Rework Cycle

Adding Rework Delays Completion

Undiscovered Rework : Traditional With Rework

So, What Happens on Projects?

Rework creates and extended

Work Assignments of Staff to...

or a second staffing peak

Work Assignments of Staff to...

Program Staff, Simulated vs. Data (Equivalent Staff)

Disguised results from

Disguised results from

Undiscovered rework generates

Fraction Reported Complete : Traditional With Rework3

Rework Cycle Creates

Design Progress (Percent Complete)

The Lost Year

and the 90% Syndrome ---

Design Progress (Percent Complete)

Does your organization measure rework?

Does your organization recognize rework in

How significant is the Errors on Errors

Units of Work SD Model

Tasks -- ideally, of uniform size and

Drawings, work packages, lines of code,

Can represent precedence constraints

Need to distinguish between:

Fraction Correct and Complete

Represents unplanned iterations;

Mistakes from inexperience, fatigue,

Incorrect prior work

Two Types of Iteration

Caused by needs to get it

Separate tasks in the rework

Caused by errors and/or

Quality problems in the